It's that great time of year... NFL PLAYOFF TIME. And to get us started, here's my yearly Playoff Primer, the one 40,000 word document guaranteed to be fully wrong within 14 days. As a preview each team capsule has the following information:
Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.
The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their AFC (and NFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.
Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.
As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.
Here We Go...
6.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = 409-302)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 409 ptf (8th), 302 pta (6th), +107 ptd (6th), 5,838 ydf (12th), 5,391 yda (8th)
= Outsiders: +22.2% team (5th), +9.7% off (9th), -4.6% def (8th), +8.0% st (2nd)
Offense: It may not feel this way given how the last three weeks have played out, with sluggish games against Jacksonville and Cleveland and an abhorric one in Houston, but the Ravens have a good offense. It isn't great, but it is balanced, is Top-10 in many areas, and is probably the most complete offense the Ravens have had in the Flacco era. Flacco himself had his best season, placing 8th in DYAR and 7th in DVOA. They have a very good run game at times with Justin Forsett being among the more efficient RBs in the NFL. The pass protection has been great, as Flacco was only dropped 19 times. The o-line itself is fully healthy. The Ravens are good on a per-drive basis as wel, placing in the Top-10 in the following: Yards/drive (6th), Pts/drive (8th), and Turnovers (10th). They protect the ball, move the ball, and rarely punt. There are two factors here to consider, first, and most importantly, their schedule. The Ravens played a ridiculously easy set of defenses, mostly getting both the AFC and NFC South (so did all the AFC North teams). The second is their recent play, which hasn't been great even against those AFC South teams. Both are issues, but this is clearly a legitimately good offense. Problem for Baltimore is the AFC is full of those. Rank: 5th
Defense: Everyone knows what the Ravens hole is on defense. Their secondary is not very good, not by skill, but by experience and youth. The unit was decimated by injury to comic levels. They stil have Lardarius Webb, though he's had an up and down season. What the Ravens have, though, that helps cover that obvious hole, is their front-7. It is probably the best in the AFC. They have the patented pass-rushing duo in Dumervil and Suggs (Terrell remains a monster against the run as well). Haloti Ngata back from suspension makes their tackle grouping even more stout. They have two good inside linebackers in the superb rookie CJ Mosley, and the always underrated Darryl Smith. This Ravens defense can flat out ball. They are best in limited space, unsurprisingly given their secondary has less room to cover, ranking 2nd in Red Zone DVOA. Their D-Line stats are excellent, placing Top-5 in both run stopping and pass rushing. The Ravens defense is extremely competent, and while they may struggle between the 20s due to obvious issues in pass coverage, they are more than mitigated by their ability to play stout up front and turn 7 into 3 more often than not. Rank: 3rd
Quarterback: Joe Flacco just had his best season of his career, placing in the Top-10 of most conventional stats, and the two advanced stats that I care about (DVOA and DYAR). He had an absolutely awful game against the Texans in Week 16, but followed it up nicely. Flacco obviously has had a very interesting playoff career, early on winning games despite awful performances (4-10 for 36 yards being my favorite), but recently has had 5-good playoff games in a row The AFC is just stock with good QBs right now. Rank: 5th
Coaching: I think the Ravens coaching staff is among the best in the NFL. They did have a habit of playing down to competition some times, but the Ravens always seem well prepared. John Harbaugh is an effective leader with great buy-in, and his Special Teams are always great. Gary Kubiak has turned that offense into a better version of any previous Ravens offense since maybe 2008 when they were a savant-like running team. On defense, Dean Peas continues to utilize his talent well and they've done a great job of masking weaknesses in their secondary. They are just a solid top-to-bottom coaching staff. Rank: 2nd
Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = The Patriots: The Ravens historically play the Patriots well. Even last year's 41-7 loss they held Brady to barely 50% passing. That game was done in by turnovers, something the Ravens have done well at avoiding this year. The Ravens do a few things that will work well against New England, such as play excellent red zone defense (force 3 not 7 - what keyed their win in 2012), and rush the passer everywhere from the front. On offense, it might be more challenging, but the Ravens can get steady gains on the ground. Also, for once the Patriots wouldn't have the clear Special Teams advantage. Plus, they don't really match up well with Peyton Manning. Against Manning, their 1-2 in the playoffs, winning a game they absolutely should have lost. Against Brady, they're 2-1, losing a game they probably should have won.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1 = 365-344)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 365 ptf (15th), 344 (12th), +21 ptd (14th), 5,568 ydf (15th), 5,749 yda (22nd)
= Outsiders: +4.6% team (13th), -1.8% off (18th), -2.2% def (14th), +4.2% st (6th)
Offense: It is hard to know what to make of the Bengals offense. They've looked quite competent at times. They've also looked horrid at times. They've seemingly found an effective formula with the run game and Jeremy Hill, and the Bengals do have a solid o-line that keeps pressure off of Dalton most of the time, but even that o-line has been very up-and-down. Looking at the conventional numbers, their run game has really been effective in recent weeks. I hate stats like these, but in every game they won, they had at least 100 rushing yards, and their loss in Week 17 was the first time they lost with over 100. The Bengals o-line is the strength of that offense, with the #5 pass protection as per Football Outsiders. Andy Dalton had another extremely average year, but did rebound with a few nice games to end the season. He was projecting below his career numbers early, but was able to utilize Muhammad Sanu more as the season wore on. He'll have to if AJ Green has any lingering effects of his concussion that may force him to miss the Colts game. The Bengals offense does not have close to the ceiling it had last year, but with a solid, healthy o-line and a stable running game, it's floor is far higher than it was early in the season. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Bengals entered the season without their defensive coordinator and without a few key defensive pieces, such as Michael Johnson. They suffered injuries through the year, and are still trotting out aging veterans in the secondary. Somehow, though, Marvin Lewis got it to mostly work. There are some notable areas where the Bengals struggle, mostly on the d-line (once a strength). They were in the bottom-5 in terms of sacks, with Geno Atkins notably not recovered from his ACL tear last season. They have a bottom-5 rush defense overall by DVOA. They are, in reality, the anti-Ravens, where their soft front-7 is coupled with a strong, deep secondary. The Ravens have had one of the top secondaries in terms of depth and talent for ears now. This year, Dre Kirkpatrick has improved to somewhat justify his 1st-round draft status, and Pacman Jones continues to have a very nice second career. The Bengals force more interceptions than all but two teams, and are a Top-10 unit in the red zone where they play primarily zone. The Bengals know what they are and what they have. It generally is only marginally good, but can be very effective if their pass rush even gets a little push. Rank: 4th
Quarterback: Good Old Andy Dalton, not exactly as bad as people think but definitely worse than the over five AFC QBs. I don't care too much about his overall record in the playoffs (0-3), or his awful stats in primetime games, but what I do care about is him throwing high way too often, and being generally inaccurate. Combine this with him probably not having AJ Green and you get serious issues. The Bengals are in a tough spot as I don't even see the potential upside of him going on a Flacco in 2012-type run. Dalton most certainly got worse, with just a 19-17 TD/INT, which is truly bad in the NFL of 2014. Rank: 6th.
Coaching: I'll give credit to Marvin Lewis for keeping that team good after losing both coordinators. Hue Jackson actually ended up being the perfect coordinator, as his natural inclination to run the ball is a perfect marriage for a team with a good o-line and a spotty QB. I have no idea who their new defensive coordinator is, but I think they place too much trust in their talent and less in actually team-specific game planning. Rank: 6th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = Denver: I don't really think Cincinnati can beat either, but we saw them beat Denver just a few weeks ago. Denver's awful special teams are hidden more in Mile High, and the Special Teams edge basically won the Bengals the first game. It also likely wouldn't be a monsoon. Still, they beat Denver. They also lost horrifically to New England back in Week 5, a loss that likely spurred the Pats play ever since. I can't see them beating either, but they have a slightly better shot in Denver.
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 458-369)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 458 ptf (6th), 369 pta (19th), +89 ptd (7th), 6,506 ydf (3rd), 5,483 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: +4.7% team (12th), -0.9% off (17th), -2.3% def (13th), +3.3% st (8th)
Offense: I'll say right now I'm ranking them 4th, but it was close between them and Baltimore. In fact, it is pretty hard to make the argument that the Colts are a better offense without using stats I don't implicitly trust, or being a homer. The Colts did score far more points, but they also had far more drives (7th in pts/drive). There are two issues for the Colts offense. First is their running game. The Colts have been smart enough to essentially bench Trent Richardson from getting any important carry, and Dan Herron is a capable, fungible back, but the Colts can't turn to the running game for anything. The passing game can be great, and at times in 2014 it was, but injuries to Wayne and, more alarmingly, TY Hilton have slowed that, along with issues on their o-line. Hilton should be getting healthier, as should the o-line. I'm still left a little upset at myself, though, for defending a team as a good offense when the stats don't really show that. They were a very good offense early in the season, and then a middling one later. Personally, I just think they are more of the former offense, the one that was running more plays than anyone and leading the NFL in yards/drive through 8 games. Rank: 4th.
Defense: The Colts defense alternates from absolutely awesome against mediocre to bad offenses. This is shown by their dominance against their division rivals, Giants, Redskins, Bengals, Ravens and Browns. In those 11 games, they went 11-0, which is great, but also gave up just 173 points and 286 y/game. That is great, Seahawks level defense. Now some of these are bad offensive teams, but against those teams the Colts were even more stingy. The bad news is against the good offenses they faced, as in those five games they gave up 196 points and 476 y/game. The Colts defense is basically completed scheme based, with few notable talents but good coaching. Their defense had no real pass rush force after losing Robert Mathis, but Pagano was able to scheme up 41 sacks out of thin air. I'm not sure how. Improvements by Bjoern Werner helped, but additions of Arthur Jones and rookie Jonathan Newsome were even more effective. The Colts trust their top corners to use man coverage, and Davis and Toler are generally good at that too. Overall, using DVOA (which will adjust for the splits between bad offenses and good), they rank a respectable 13th, and 10th against hte pass. Their pass rush ranks 7th, The Colts are a strange team that is Top-5 in ending drives quickly and forcing 3-and-outs or punts, but they have the worst red zone defense in the NFL. Add it all up, and they are respectable, but given that most of the AFC teams have good to great offenses, their struggles may show up more.. Rank: 5th
Quarterback: Quick warning, I'm ranking him 3rd. Yes, it is a homer pick. Yes, Luck is probably not easily defensible as better than either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but I'm doing it. Here is my rational, and where graying the line between a QB's ability and the offenses production. Luck is tasked with doing more than any QB in the NFL. He has to throw it 600 times, with an average at best offensive line at pass protection that shuffled itself all the time. He has no real running game since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, and his weapons are somewhat good (Hilton), and somewhat maddeningly above average (Fleener, Allen). Luck himself is ready to take over the league, let's not forget he had a 40 TD season at 24. Rank: 3rd.
Coaching: It's easy to criticize the Colts coaching staff, and Lord knows Colts fans do that all the time, but it isn't all totally off base. However, they've showed far more ingenuity this season than in the past two. Pagano's defense has adjusted to personnel changes and he coached them up to basically dominate any average or worse offense. They just don't have the personnel to beat better ones. On the offensive side, Pep Hamilton embraced the throw-for-it mentality and continues to work in the different weapons well. They aren't the best in clock management, but my issues with the Colts long term are more in GM than coaching. Rank: 4th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = New England: Again, I don;t think the Colts can beat either, but I think they have a slightly better shot in New England. Pagano's defense replicates what the Ravens try to do, and that does work against Brady. Even in this year's game Brady was pretty bad, throwing two awful interceptions. The Patriots won because they went 6-lineman all the time and rolled up 200 yards, which is rather unlikely to happen again. Also, the Colts blitz-happy nature is less likely to work against Peyton than it is against Brady.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 = 436-368)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 436 ptf (7th), 368 pta (18th), +68 ptd (10th), 6,577 ydf (2nd), 5,654 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: +12.1% team (8th), +22.5% off (2nd), +11.3% def (30th), +0.9% st (12th)
Offense: The one criticism of Ben Roethlisberger's career is that he can't put up big numbers. Well, we can only dream of not putting up numbers like this. Roethlisberger had a career year in his 11th season, placing 1st in DYAR and 3rd in DVOA. He had his most efficient season the same year as his most voluminous one, throwing for 4,952 yards. The offense is so much more than Big Ben, though. The o-line is the best the Steelers have had since 2005. They are good in all parts of run-blocking, and rank a good-for-Pittsburgh 14th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate. They led the NFL in yards per drive with just under 40. Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers, were an all-offense team in 2014, one that got more yards per drive than any team in the NFL. They employ the best dual-threat RB in the NFL, and the best WR. Antonio Brown's season is beyond words. 129 catches, 1,698 yards, and an incredible number of big plays. Brown just consistently gets open, and his presence makes it easier for Markus Wheaton, and deep threat extraordinaire Martavis Bryant. Of course, Heath Miller is still around, a Top-10 TE in DYAR/DVOA in his 11th season. Their relative weakness is that they are just average in the red zone, but that is mitigated by how often they can get there given the yards/drive. One last stat before I go away, they led the NFL in time of possession per drive. They were basically a more dangerous, explosive version of last year's San Diego team. Rank: 1st.
Defense: The Steelers are good in very, very few things on defense this year. They have been playing slightly better recently, but that is mainly due to reduced competition. The Steelers get an average amount of sacks, and a sub-average amount of turnovers (though that might be an improvement from past seasons), and place between 17-32 in basically all advanced stats, from run stopping to all their drive stats (yards, points, turnovers, punts, red zone). When you aren't truly good in anything, that makes it pretty easy to rank worst in the AFC Playoff picture. It isn't all too close actually. Some of their newest players in the LeBeau Linebacker College have been playing better recently (Spence, Worilds, Shazier), but considering they're relying on James Harrison to play many snaps. The Steelers have to show some flexibility if they hope to go deep, given that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have both had successes against far superior versions of the Steelers defenses. Rank: 6th
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger ranked #1 in DYAR, with just slightly under 100/game. That wouldn't have been #1 in most years past, but it does make Roethlisberger the first QB not named Manning, Brady or Brees to lead the NFL in that stat since 2002, and this is probably the first time since those playoffs that neither Manning or Brady is the best QB in the AFC. Despite losing Emannuel Sanders and having Antonio Brown as his only dependent receiver, Roethlisberger had an insane season. 4,952 yards, 32 TDs to just 9 INTs. He had back-to-back 6-TD games, he had 300-yard games out the wazoo, he helped the Steelers have the top offense in the AFC. Basically, he had the season that all the haters thought he was never capable of having. Oh, and for those that care, he's 10-4 in the playoffs.. Rank: 1st.
Coaching: While the Steelers defense played slightly better later in the season, it still is not that good despite some highly-drafted fellows, and some of that is I think the game is passing Dick LeBeau by. He's never been too flexible with the scheme, but for the most part he hasn't had to be. He needs to show some flexibility if they get by Baltimore, as the only way they beat Denver/New England is if the coaching adjusts. On offense, I've hated the Todd Haley marriage with Roethlisberger, but it sure worked this year. Tomlin gets the team to buy in, but they've had way too many odd games this year to really trust. Rank: 5th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Denver: We've seen the Steelers vs. Patriots movie before. There have been a few plot twists (2004, 2011), but those came when the Steelers either controlled the ball for 40 minutes, or shut down teh Patriots run completely. Given that this one would happen in New England, neither seem likely. Denver is a more interesting matchup, given that Peyton hasn't had the level of success Brady has had against LeBeau's defense (though he's been plenty good), and the Steelers are more suited to a team that will give up some 3rd and 11's.
2.) Denver Broncos (12-4 = 482-354)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 482 ptf (2nd), 354 pta (16th), +128 ptd (4th), 6,446 ydf (4th), 4,883 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +29.5% team (2nd), +19.9% off (3rd), -13.3% def (4th), -3.7% st (27th)
Offense: People like to draw a line in the Broncos season, because it is an easy line to draw. Through 10 games, the Broncos were probably the 2nd best offense in the NFL behind Green Bay. Manning had 30 TDs and 9 INTs, and the team was 7-3. They lost the 10th game, throwing 55 times and running 10. Ever since then, the Broncos decided to run the ball. The team continued to score points, actually scoring more at 31.5 ppg. They went 5-1 in those last six games. The trouble is Manning's numbers went down, with just 9 TDs and 6 INTs. Because of age and the neck injuries and because it is fun to belittle Manning, any times his number fall off from amazing people say he is done. Manning isn't done. I've watched every throw and I think the bigger issues are the thigh injury, the game-plan adjustment to throw more intermediate/deep passes and less screens, and the fact that the Broncos haven't had a Week off since September. The offense is still the best in the red zone, and is still a Top offense everywhere. CJ Anderson has been a Top-5 running back since that 11th game. Emannuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are a Top-3 WR duo, and Wes Welker is playing better. They still give up fewer sacks than anyone, and are now more multifaceted. If this was anyone else who underwent this transformation, they would be lauded. Since Manning is involved, they aren't. That's not fair to Peyton, or the Broncos as a whole, who are 2nd in points, 4th in yards, 3rd in DVOA, and have the 4th best QB and two of the Top-10 WRs and a Top-10 RB. Rank: 2nd.
Defense: It was a tough choice who would get my #1 ranking for AFC defenses. In the end, I went with my numbers over my head and heart and general fear of Belichick. The Broncos are, by the numbers, the best defense in the AFC playoff field. The rank #4 in DVOA, Top-5 against the Pass (5th) and run (3rd). While they struggle against other receivers, the are Top-5 against #1 and #2 receivers, a clear indicator of how good Aqib Talib and, more importantly, Chris Harris Jr. have been. They actually struggle to get sacks given the amount of pass plays the defense faces, but the are Top-5 in pressures. They rank 2nd in Outsiders' run stopping statistics, give up the fewest yards per drive, and and the most 3-and-outs. A few areas where they struggle are in teh red zone, and they have a terrible penchant for giving up 3rd and long conversions more than good defenses should. It is hard to pin their difference in yards allowed and points allowed. One thing I'll say is that it makes sense given their propensity to either force a three-and-out or give up a TD. Great teams usually don't do that. Their terrible game in Foxboro was their only true black mark, but their inability to stop 4th Quarter drives in multi-score games also made end games more precarious than they should. Still, the numbers are quite clear. Rank: 1st
Quarterback: Yes, Manning had some odd games in the 2nd half of the season, but let's break them down, shall we. Following his loss to St. Louis, he was brilliant against Miami, with 4 TDs on 80% passing. He then played the Chiefs, threw two early TDs and then spent the rest of the game throwing deep. Against the Bills, the same defense that completely shut down Brady and Rodgers over the past three games, he completes 70% of his passes, but throws two bad picks. Against the Chargers, he got hurt but still played OK, and then threw two bad passes against the Bengals in a driving rainstorm. All of these performances came with the Broncos running effectively. Tom Brady basically had the same stretch at the end of last season, and no one gave a shit. What I am saying is that if 4,500 yards and 39 TDs is a 'down' season, then every other QB should be embarrassed. Rank: 2nd.
Coaching: I'm down on the coaching staffs in general in the AFC for the most part (which is distinctly different than the NFC), so I really don't think the Broncos are great. I'll give Adam Gase all the credit in the world for being flexible, and Peyton thinks the world of him. Jack Del Rio's defense continues to play well, but needs to show more nuance if they play New England again. Finally, they have to get less conservative. One fear with their run-all-the-time mantra is that it has instilled some temerity, such as multiple field goals on 4th and Goal from the 1 or 2. That has to change. Rank: 3rd
1.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 468-313)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 468 ptf (4th), 313 pta (8th), +155 ptd (1st), 5,848 ydf (11th), 5,506 yda (13th)
= Outsiders: +22.4% team (4th), +13.6% off (6th), -3.4% def (11th), +5.5% st (5th)
Offense: The Patriots are good balanced offense, placing 5th in passing DVOA and 14th in rushing. The rushing number was closer to last place midway through the season, but for seemingly the 15th year in a row they found themselves in their run game as the season went on with the combination of Jonas Gray and LaGarrette Blount. The Patriots are still a pass first team, and Brady's weaponry stayed healthy this year. Gronk was healthy all season and got healthier as the season went on and was once against the best TE in the NFL, leading in DYAR/DVOA and conventional metrics. Brady also continued to use Edelman as a very effective clone of Wes Welker. Danny Amendola actually contributed, and overall it was a happy year. There are a few troubling spots, however. First, in their last five games they've scored 21, 23, 41, 17, 9. The 9 you can throw out, but the 21, 23 and 17 aren't great. Of course, those were all on the road, something the Patriots won't have to deal with. Brady himself didn't look great in the last six games, but they can compensate for that. New England's o-line shuffled mightily early in the season, but did settle down and while they are still vulnerable to giving up too much pressure, a constant theme in those low-scoring affairs, they are a Top-10 O-Line in all phases. The Patriots are a well-oiled machine, but they aren't nearly as good as past Patriots offenses that featured Gronk for full, or mostly-full seasons (2010-2012). Rank: 3rd.
Defense: Maybe I am a true hater, but the Patriots defense ranks worse than they should basically everywhere. They rank 11th overall in DVOA, 12th against the pass and 14th against the run. They rank no higher than 7th against any particular set of pass catchers. The Patriots are among the worst defenses in the NFL in stopping runs for zero or negative yards, though they do give up few big gains on the ground. They have an average pass rush, though it improved with Chandler Jones back. They are 23rd in yards per drive, but only 8th in points per drive. Somehow, this is not explained as it usually is by great red zone defense, as they're only 11th. The secret to their success is a string of failed 4th-downs against them in the red zone. Some of these were late in blowouts, but some weren't. That is probably not sustainable, but you generally have to be ahead to have teams go against you so much on 4th down. By personnel, this defense should actually be better. Darrelle Revis has had a very good season, as have linebackers Jamie Collins and Rob Ninkovich. Devin McCourty is still one of the better safeties, and they are coached excellently. Still, they aren't really that much better than the Patriots defensive units from 2010-2012. Rank: 2nd
Quarterback: While Manning was aging before our eyes, Brady was playing, well, average. He only had a QB rating above 100 once in the past 7 games. Other than that mighty 2nd half against Miami, the offense under him has been somewhat middling. Through 8 games, Brady had 18 TDs and 2 INTs, in his next 8, he had 15 TDs and 7 INTs, including some awful picks against the Colts and Chargers. Not that he was bad, but let's not think Brady wasn't 'aging' either. His recent playoff track record ain't the best either, people.. Rank: 4th.
Coaching: It's Bill Belichick. That is really all that needs to be said to justify ranking him 1st in this. With McDaniels in tow, they continue to run the most machine-like offense in the NFL, though better defenses can slow it down. Matt Patricia has gotten better as a defensive cordinator, with their defense being far more aggressive this season. With Jim Harbaugh and Co. gone in San Francisco, there's no team obvious to challenge the Patriots here, though Baltimore's group was close. Rank: 1st
Stat Breakdown giving their points and yards for and against, and then their Football Outsiders DVOA numbers overall, and for offense, defense and Special Teams.
The capsule also includes write-ups on their offense and defense, QB and coaching staffs, with a concluding ranking of 1-6, compared to their AFC (and NFC, for the next post) playoff comrades.
Finally, for teams seeded 6-3, I'll give a brief look a which of the Top-2 seeds I think they can beat over the other.
As a note, I utilize Football Outsiders' stats a lot, including their overall DVOA figures, DVOA and DYAR figures for players, O-Line and D-Line stats, and their drive stats. All of these are readily available at FootballOutsiders.com, a site that should be a must-visit for any real NFL fan in the 21st Century. I have not used any stats that are for their paid Premium members (of which I am), but they reveal almost too much great information.
Here We Go...
6.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = 409-302)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 409 ptf (8th), 302 pta (6th), +107 ptd (6th), 5,838 ydf (12th), 5,391 yda (8th)
= Outsiders: +22.2% team (5th), +9.7% off (9th), -4.6% def (8th), +8.0% st (2nd)
Offense: It may not feel this way given how the last three weeks have played out, with sluggish games against Jacksonville and Cleveland and an abhorric one in Houston, but the Ravens have a good offense. It isn't great, but it is balanced, is Top-10 in many areas, and is probably the most complete offense the Ravens have had in the Flacco era. Flacco himself had his best season, placing 8th in DYAR and 7th in DVOA. They have a very good run game at times with Justin Forsett being among the more efficient RBs in the NFL. The pass protection has been great, as Flacco was only dropped 19 times. The o-line itself is fully healthy. The Ravens are good on a per-drive basis as wel, placing in the Top-10 in the following: Yards/drive (6th), Pts/drive (8th), and Turnovers (10th). They protect the ball, move the ball, and rarely punt. There are two factors here to consider, first, and most importantly, their schedule. The Ravens played a ridiculously easy set of defenses, mostly getting both the AFC and NFC South (so did all the AFC North teams). The second is their recent play, which hasn't been great even against those AFC South teams. Both are issues, but this is clearly a legitimately good offense. Problem for Baltimore is the AFC is full of those. Rank: 5th
Defense: Everyone knows what the Ravens hole is on defense. Their secondary is not very good, not by skill, but by experience and youth. The unit was decimated by injury to comic levels. They stil have Lardarius Webb, though he's had an up and down season. What the Ravens have, though, that helps cover that obvious hole, is their front-7. It is probably the best in the AFC. They have the patented pass-rushing duo in Dumervil and Suggs (Terrell remains a monster against the run as well). Haloti Ngata back from suspension makes their tackle grouping even more stout. They have two good inside linebackers in the superb rookie CJ Mosley, and the always underrated Darryl Smith. This Ravens defense can flat out ball. They are best in limited space, unsurprisingly given their secondary has less room to cover, ranking 2nd in Red Zone DVOA. Their D-Line stats are excellent, placing Top-5 in both run stopping and pass rushing. The Ravens defense is extremely competent, and while they may struggle between the 20s due to obvious issues in pass coverage, they are more than mitigated by their ability to play stout up front and turn 7 into 3 more often than not. Rank: 3rd
Quarterback: Joe Flacco just had his best season of his career, placing in the Top-10 of most conventional stats, and the two advanced stats that I care about (DVOA and DYAR). He had an absolutely awful game against the Texans in Week 16, but followed it up nicely. Flacco obviously has had a very interesting playoff career, early on winning games despite awful performances (4-10 for 36 yards being my favorite), but recently has had 5-good playoff games in a row The AFC is just stock with good QBs right now. Rank: 5th
Coaching: I think the Ravens coaching staff is among the best in the NFL. They did have a habit of playing down to competition some times, but the Ravens always seem well prepared. John Harbaugh is an effective leader with great buy-in, and his Special Teams are always great. Gary Kubiak has turned that offense into a better version of any previous Ravens offense since maybe 2008 when they were a savant-like running team. On defense, Dean Peas continues to utilize his talent well and they've done a great job of masking weaknesses in their secondary. They are just a solid top-to-bottom coaching staff. Rank: 2nd
Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = The Patriots: The Ravens historically play the Patriots well. Even last year's 41-7 loss they held Brady to barely 50% passing. That game was done in by turnovers, something the Ravens have done well at avoiding this year. The Ravens do a few things that will work well against New England, such as play excellent red zone defense (force 3 not 7 - what keyed their win in 2012), and rush the passer everywhere from the front. On offense, it might be more challenging, but the Ravens can get steady gains on the ground. Also, for once the Patriots wouldn't have the clear Special Teams advantage. Plus, they don't really match up well with Peyton Manning. Against Manning, their 1-2 in the playoffs, winning a game they absolutely should have lost. Against Brady, they're 2-1, losing a game they probably should have won.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1 = 365-344)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 365 ptf (15th), 344 (12th), +21 ptd (14th), 5,568 ydf (15th), 5,749 yda (22nd)
= Outsiders: +4.6% team (13th), -1.8% off (18th), -2.2% def (14th), +4.2% st (6th)
Offense: It is hard to know what to make of the Bengals offense. They've looked quite competent at times. They've also looked horrid at times. They've seemingly found an effective formula with the run game and Jeremy Hill, and the Bengals do have a solid o-line that keeps pressure off of Dalton most of the time, but even that o-line has been very up-and-down. Looking at the conventional numbers, their run game has really been effective in recent weeks. I hate stats like these, but in every game they won, they had at least 100 rushing yards, and their loss in Week 17 was the first time they lost with over 100. The Bengals o-line is the strength of that offense, with the #5 pass protection as per Football Outsiders. Andy Dalton had another extremely average year, but did rebound with a few nice games to end the season. He was projecting below his career numbers early, but was able to utilize Muhammad Sanu more as the season wore on. He'll have to if AJ Green has any lingering effects of his concussion that may force him to miss the Colts game. The Bengals offense does not have close to the ceiling it had last year, but with a solid, healthy o-line and a stable running game, it's floor is far higher than it was early in the season. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Bengals entered the season without their defensive coordinator and without a few key defensive pieces, such as Michael Johnson. They suffered injuries through the year, and are still trotting out aging veterans in the secondary. Somehow, though, Marvin Lewis got it to mostly work. There are some notable areas where the Bengals struggle, mostly on the d-line (once a strength). They were in the bottom-5 in terms of sacks, with Geno Atkins notably not recovered from his ACL tear last season. They have a bottom-5 rush defense overall by DVOA. They are, in reality, the anti-Ravens, where their soft front-7 is coupled with a strong, deep secondary. The Ravens have had one of the top secondaries in terms of depth and talent for ears now. This year, Dre Kirkpatrick has improved to somewhat justify his 1st-round draft status, and Pacman Jones continues to have a very nice second career. The Bengals force more interceptions than all but two teams, and are a Top-10 unit in the red zone where they play primarily zone. The Bengals know what they are and what they have. It generally is only marginally good, but can be very effective if their pass rush even gets a little push. Rank: 4th
Quarterback: Good Old Andy Dalton, not exactly as bad as people think but definitely worse than the over five AFC QBs. I don't care too much about his overall record in the playoffs (0-3), or his awful stats in primetime games, but what I do care about is him throwing high way too often, and being generally inaccurate. Combine this with him probably not having AJ Green and you get serious issues. The Bengals are in a tough spot as I don't even see the potential upside of him going on a Flacco in 2012-type run. Dalton most certainly got worse, with just a 19-17 TD/INT, which is truly bad in the NFL of 2014. Rank: 6th.
Coaching: I'll give credit to Marvin Lewis for keeping that team good after losing both coordinators. Hue Jackson actually ended up being the perfect coordinator, as his natural inclination to run the ball is a perfect marriage for a team with a good o-line and a spotty QB. I have no idea who their new defensive coordinator is, but I think they place too much trust in their talent and less in actually team-specific game planning. Rank: 6th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Upset = Denver: I don't really think Cincinnati can beat either, but we saw them beat Denver just a few weeks ago. Denver's awful special teams are hidden more in Mile High, and the Special Teams edge basically won the Bengals the first game. It also likely wouldn't be a monsoon. Still, they beat Denver. They also lost horrifically to New England back in Week 5, a loss that likely spurred the Pats play ever since. I can't see them beating either, but they have a slightly better shot in Denver.
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 458-369)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 458 ptf (6th), 369 pta (19th), +89 ptd (7th), 6,506 ydf (3rd), 5,483 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: +4.7% team (12th), -0.9% off (17th), -2.3% def (13th), +3.3% st (8th)
Offense: I'll say right now I'm ranking them 4th, but it was close between them and Baltimore. In fact, it is pretty hard to make the argument that the Colts are a better offense without using stats I don't implicitly trust, or being a homer. The Colts did score far more points, but they also had far more drives (7th in pts/drive). There are two issues for the Colts offense. First is their running game. The Colts have been smart enough to essentially bench Trent Richardson from getting any important carry, and Dan Herron is a capable, fungible back, but the Colts can't turn to the running game for anything. The passing game can be great, and at times in 2014 it was, but injuries to Wayne and, more alarmingly, TY Hilton have slowed that, along with issues on their o-line. Hilton should be getting healthier, as should the o-line. I'm still left a little upset at myself, though, for defending a team as a good offense when the stats don't really show that. They were a very good offense early in the season, and then a middling one later. Personally, I just think they are more of the former offense, the one that was running more plays than anyone and leading the NFL in yards/drive through 8 games. Rank: 4th.
Defense: The Colts defense alternates from absolutely awesome against mediocre to bad offenses. This is shown by their dominance against their division rivals, Giants, Redskins, Bengals, Ravens and Browns. In those 11 games, they went 11-0, which is great, but also gave up just 173 points and 286 y/game. That is great, Seahawks level defense. Now some of these are bad offensive teams, but against those teams the Colts were even more stingy. The bad news is against the good offenses they faced, as in those five games they gave up 196 points and 476 y/game. The Colts defense is basically completed scheme based, with few notable talents but good coaching. Their defense had no real pass rush force after losing Robert Mathis, but Pagano was able to scheme up 41 sacks out of thin air. I'm not sure how. Improvements by Bjoern Werner helped, but additions of Arthur Jones and rookie Jonathan Newsome were even more effective. The Colts trust their top corners to use man coverage, and Davis and Toler are generally good at that too. Overall, using DVOA (which will adjust for the splits between bad offenses and good), they rank a respectable 13th, and 10th against hte pass. Their pass rush ranks 7th, The Colts are a strange team that is Top-5 in ending drives quickly and forcing 3-and-outs or punts, but they have the worst red zone defense in the NFL. Add it all up, and they are respectable, but given that most of the AFC teams have good to great offenses, their struggles may show up more.. Rank: 5th
Quarterback: Quick warning, I'm ranking him 3rd. Yes, it is a homer pick. Yes, Luck is probably not easily defensible as better than either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but I'm doing it. Here is my rational, and where graying the line between a QB's ability and the offenses production. Luck is tasked with doing more than any QB in the NFL. He has to throw it 600 times, with an average at best offensive line at pass protection that shuffled itself all the time. He has no real running game since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, and his weapons are somewhat good (Hilton), and somewhat maddeningly above average (Fleener, Allen). Luck himself is ready to take over the league, let's not forget he had a 40 TD season at 24. Rank: 3rd.
Coaching: It's easy to criticize the Colts coaching staff, and Lord knows Colts fans do that all the time, but it isn't all totally off base. However, they've showed far more ingenuity this season than in the past two. Pagano's defense has adjusted to personnel changes and he coached them up to basically dominate any average or worse offense. They just don't have the personnel to beat better ones. On the offensive side, Pep Hamilton embraced the throw-for-it mentality and continues to work in the different weapons well. They aren't the best in clock management, but my issues with the Colts long term are more in GM than coaching. Rank: 4th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = New England: Again, I don;t think the Colts can beat either, but I think they have a slightly better shot in New England. Pagano's defense replicates what the Ravens try to do, and that does work against Brady. Even in this year's game Brady was pretty bad, throwing two awful interceptions. The Patriots won because they went 6-lineman all the time and rolled up 200 yards, which is rather unlikely to happen again. Also, the Colts blitz-happy nature is less likely to work against Peyton than it is against Brady.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 = 436-368)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 436 ptf (7th), 368 pta (18th), +68 ptd (10th), 6,577 ydf (2nd), 5,654 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: +12.1% team (8th), +22.5% off (2nd), +11.3% def (30th), +0.9% st (12th)
Offense: The one criticism of Ben Roethlisberger's career is that he can't put up big numbers. Well, we can only dream of not putting up numbers like this. Roethlisberger had a career year in his 11th season, placing 1st in DYAR and 3rd in DVOA. He had his most efficient season the same year as his most voluminous one, throwing for 4,952 yards. The offense is so much more than Big Ben, though. The o-line is the best the Steelers have had since 2005. They are good in all parts of run-blocking, and rank a good-for-Pittsburgh 14th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate. They led the NFL in yards per drive with just under 40. Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers, were an all-offense team in 2014, one that got more yards per drive than any team in the NFL. They employ the best dual-threat RB in the NFL, and the best WR. Antonio Brown's season is beyond words. 129 catches, 1,698 yards, and an incredible number of big plays. Brown just consistently gets open, and his presence makes it easier for Markus Wheaton, and deep threat extraordinaire Martavis Bryant. Of course, Heath Miller is still around, a Top-10 TE in DYAR/DVOA in his 11th season. Their relative weakness is that they are just average in the red zone, but that is mitigated by how often they can get there given the yards/drive. One last stat before I go away, they led the NFL in time of possession per drive. They were basically a more dangerous, explosive version of last year's San Diego team. Rank: 1st.
Defense: The Steelers are good in very, very few things on defense this year. They have been playing slightly better recently, but that is mainly due to reduced competition. The Steelers get an average amount of sacks, and a sub-average amount of turnovers (though that might be an improvement from past seasons), and place between 17-32 in basically all advanced stats, from run stopping to all their drive stats (yards, points, turnovers, punts, red zone). When you aren't truly good in anything, that makes it pretty easy to rank worst in the AFC Playoff picture. It isn't all too close actually. Some of their newest players in the LeBeau Linebacker College have been playing better recently (Spence, Worilds, Shazier), but considering they're relying on James Harrison to play many snaps. The Steelers have to show some flexibility if they hope to go deep, given that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have both had successes against far superior versions of the Steelers defenses. Rank: 6th
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger ranked #1 in DYAR, with just slightly under 100/game. That wouldn't have been #1 in most years past, but it does make Roethlisberger the first QB not named Manning, Brady or Brees to lead the NFL in that stat since 2002, and this is probably the first time since those playoffs that neither Manning or Brady is the best QB in the AFC. Despite losing Emannuel Sanders and having Antonio Brown as his only dependent receiver, Roethlisberger had an insane season. 4,952 yards, 32 TDs to just 9 INTs. He had back-to-back 6-TD games, he had 300-yard games out the wazoo, he helped the Steelers have the top offense in the AFC. Basically, he had the season that all the haters thought he was never capable of having. Oh, and for those that care, he's 10-4 in the playoffs.. Rank: 1st.
Coaching: While the Steelers defense played slightly better later in the season, it still is not that good despite some highly-drafted fellows, and some of that is I think the game is passing Dick LeBeau by. He's never been too flexible with the scheme, but for the most part he hasn't had to be. He needs to show some flexibility if they get by Baltimore, as the only way they beat Denver/New England is if the coaching adjusts. On offense, I've hated the Todd Haley marriage with Roethlisberger, but it sure worked this year. Tomlin gets the team to buy in, but they've had way too many odd games this year to really trust. Rank: 5th
Top-2 Seed That They Can Beat = Denver: We've seen the Steelers vs. Patriots movie before. There have been a few plot twists (2004, 2011), but those came when the Steelers either controlled the ball for 40 minutes, or shut down teh Patriots run completely. Given that this one would happen in New England, neither seem likely. Denver is a more interesting matchup, given that Peyton hasn't had the level of success Brady has had against LeBeau's defense (though he's been plenty good), and the Steelers are more suited to a team that will give up some 3rd and 11's.
2.) Denver Broncos (12-4 = 482-354)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 482 ptf (2nd), 354 pta (16th), +128 ptd (4th), 6,446 ydf (4th), 4,883 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +29.5% team (2nd), +19.9% off (3rd), -13.3% def (4th), -3.7% st (27th)
Offense: People like to draw a line in the Broncos season, because it is an easy line to draw. Through 10 games, the Broncos were probably the 2nd best offense in the NFL behind Green Bay. Manning had 30 TDs and 9 INTs, and the team was 7-3. They lost the 10th game, throwing 55 times and running 10. Ever since then, the Broncos decided to run the ball. The team continued to score points, actually scoring more at 31.5 ppg. They went 5-1 in those last six games. The trouble is Manning's numbers went down, with just 9 TDs and 6 INTs. Because of age and the neck injuries and because it is fun to belittle Manning, any times his number fall off from amazing people say he is done. Manning isn't done. I've watched every throw and I think the bigger issues are the thigh injury, the game-plan adjustment to throw more intermediate/deep passes and less screens, and the fact that the Broncos haven't had a Week off since September. The offense is still the best in the red zone, and is still a Top offense everywhere. CJ Anderson has been a Top-5 running back since that 11th game. Emannuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are a Top-3 WR duo, and Wes Welker is playing better. They still give up fewer sacks than anyone, and are now more multifaceted. If this was anyone else who underwent this transformation, they would be lauded. Since Manning is involved, they aren't. That's not fair to Peyton, or the Broncos as a whole, who are 2nd in points, 4th in yards, 3rd in DVOA, and have the 4th best QB and two of the Top-10 WRs and a Top-10 RB. Rank: 2nd.
Defense: It was a tough choice who would get my #1 ranking for AFC defenses. In the end, I went with my numbers over my head and heart and general fear of Belichick. The Broncos are, by the numbers, the best defense in the AFC playoff field. The rank #4 in DVOA, Top-5 against the Pass (5th) and run (3rd). While they struggle against other receivers, the are Top-5 against #1 and #2 receivers, a clear indicator of how good Aqib Talib and, more importantly, Chris Harris Jr. have been. They actually struggle to get sacks given the amount of pass plays the defense faces, but the are Top-5 in pressures. They rank 2nd in Outsiders' run stopping statistics, give up the fewest yards per drive, and and the most 3-and-outs. A few areas where they struggle are in teh red zone, and they have a terrible penchant for giving up 3rd and long conversions more than good defenses should. It is hard to pin their difference in yards allowed and points allowed. One thing I'll say is that it makes sense given their propensity to either force a three-and-out or give up a TD. Great teams usually don't do that. Their terrible game in Foxboro was their only true black mark, but their inability to stop 4th Quarter drives in multi-score games also made end games more precarious than they should. Still, the numbers are quite clear. Rank: 1st
Quarterback: Yes, Manning had some odd games in the 2nd half of the season, but let's break them down, shall we. Following his loss to St. Louis, he was brilliant against Miami, with 4 TDs on 80% passing. He then played the Chiefs, threw two early TDs and then spent the rest of the game throwing deep. Against the Bills, the same defense that completely shut down Brady and Rodgers over the past three games, he completes 70% of his passes, but throws two bad picks. Against the Chargers, he got hurt but still played OK, and then threw two bad passes against the Bengals in a driving rainstorm. All of these performances came with the Broncos running effectively. Tom Brady basically had the same stretch at the end of last season, and no one gave a shit. What I am saying is that if 4,500 yards and 39 TDs is a 'down' season, then every other QB should be embarrassed. Rank: 2nd.
Coaching: I'm down on the coaching staffs in general in the AFC for the most part (which is distinctly different than the NFC), so I really don't think the Broncos are great. I'll give Adam Gase all the credit in the world for being flexible, and Peyton thinks the world of him. Jack Del Rio's defense continues to play well, but needs to show more nuance if they play New England again. Finally, they have to get less conservative. One fear with their run-all-the-time mantra is that it has instilled some temerity, such as multiple field goals on 4th and Goal from the 1 or 2. That has to change. Rank: 3rd
1.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 468-313)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 468 ptf (4th), 313 pta (8th), +155 ptd (1st), 5,848 ydf (11th), 5,506 yda (13th)
= Outsiders: +22.4% team (4th), +13.6% off (6th), -3.4% def (11th), +5.5% st (5th)
Offense: The Patriots are good balanced offense, placing 5th in passing DVOA and 14th in rushing. The rushing number was closer to last place midway through the season, but for seemingly the 15th year in a row they found themselves in their run game as the season went on with the combination of Jonas Gray and LaGarrette Blount. The Patriots are still a pass first team, and Brady's weaponry stayed healthy this year. Gronk was healthy all season and got healthier as the season went on and was once against the best TE in the NFL, leading in DYAR/DVOA and conventional metrics. Brady also continued to use Edelman as a very effective clone of Wes Welker. Danny Amendola actually contributed, and overall it was a happy year. There are a few troubling spots, however. First, in their last five games they've scored 21, 23, 41, 17, 9. The 9 you can throw out, but the 21, 23 and 17 aren't great. Of course, those were all on the road, something the Patriots won't have to deal with. Brady himself didn't look great in the last six games, but they can compensate for that. New England's o-line shuffled mightily early in the season, but did settle down and while they are still vulnerable to giving up too much pressure, a constant theme in those low-scoring affairs, they are a Top-10 O-Line in all phases. The Patriots are a well-oiled machine, but they aren't nearly as good as past Patriots offenses that featured Gronk for full, or mostly-full seasons (2010-2012). Rank: 3rd.
Defense: Maybe I am a true hater, but the Patriots defense ranks worse than they should basically everywhere. They rank 11th overall in DVOA, 12th against the pass and 14th against the run. They rank no higher than 7th against any particular set of pass catchers. The Patriots are among the worst defenses in the NFL in stopping runs for zero or negative yards, though they do give up few big gains on the ground. They have an average pass rush, though it improved with Chandler Jones back. They are 23rd in yards per drive, but only 8th in points per drive. Somehow, this is not explained as it usually is by great red zone defense, as they're only 11th. The secret to their success is a string of failed 4th-downs against them in the red zone. Some of these were late in blowouts, but some weren't. That is probably not sustainable, but you generally have to be ahead to have teams go against you so much on 4th down. By personnel, this defense should actually be better. Darrelle Revis has had a very good season, as have linebackers Jamie Collins and Rob Ninkovich. Devin McCourty is still one of the better safeties, and they are coached excellently. Still, they aren't really that much better than the Patriots defensive units from 2010-2012. Rank: 2nd
Quarterback: While Manning was aging before our eyes, Brady was playing, well, average. He only had a QB rating above 100 once in the past 7 games. Other than that mighty 2nd half against Miami, the offense under him has been somewhat middling. Through 8 games, Brady had 18 TDs and 2 INTs, in his next 8, he had 15 TDs and 7 INTs, including some awful picks against the Colts and Chargers. Not that he was bad, but let's not think Brady wasn't 'aging' either. His recent playoff track record ain't the best either, people.. Rank: 4th.
Coaching: It's Bill Belichick. That is really all that needs to be said to justify ranking him 1st in this. With McDaniels in tow, they continue to run the most machine-like offense in the NFL, though better defenses can slow it down. Matt Patricia has gotten better as a defensive cordinator, with their defense being far more aggressive this season. With Jim Harbaugh and Co. gone in San Francisco, there's no team obvious to challenge the Patriots here, though Baltimore's group was close. Rank: 1st
