(N5) Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ (N4) Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Sat. 4:35 - ESPN | Carolina -6
The State of the Teams: It's odd that the team that is 7-8-1 has not really faced many questions over their losing record. Last time around, the 2010 Seahawks were hammered over and over about being under .500, to the point where it was insanely motivating. Here, the 11-5 team is getting questioned on their viability with Ryan Lindley. Beyond just having Lindley, the Cardinals are in a rough spot. They're just 2-4 after their 9-1 start, with their once great defense showing cracks, which is not surprising when they know if the opponent scores 20 the game is likely over. The once great run defense has struggled mightily, and their offensive has no running game to take any pressure off of Ryan Lindley. For the Panthers, they are indeed under .500, but 7-8-1 doesn't look too bad when they were once 3-8-1. They bookended the wining streak with 31-point beatdowns of their top two division rivals. The Panthers have gotten healthier, and more importantly, steadier all over their team, with some stability now on their o-line, and lineup changes having the same effect in their secondary. The Panthers are definitely a better team than that 2010 Seahawks group.
The Matchup: The Cardinals main strength that they still have as they are among the most effective teams blitzing with their enviable secondary depth, and they are still the best team in the NFL at stuffing runs for losses or no gain. The problem is that they have to blitz because their pass rush was decimated by injury, and they have started giving up way too many big runs when the opponent breaks that initial push. The Panthers, on the other hand, are a perfect opposite; they have no secondary depth and against many teams could be picked apart. That said, they match up really well with the Cardinals offense (most people do right now), as their front has gotten back to Top-10 level, and can push Lindley, and can swallow up whatever run game they try. The Cardinals like to push it deep, but the Panthers zone coverage is far better on deep throws than intermediate routes. The intermediate game is just not in the Cardinals arsenal right now.
The Pick: It was basically implied with what I wrote, but this is a good spot for the Panthers. They're at home, getting an awful QB and a team missing a bunch of players. Then there are all those matchup edges that they have. The Panthers defense is not their 2013 unit, but it is close enough that I would be shocked if Arizona can get to 20 without a Defense or Special Teams TD added. That is one matchup edge for the Cardinals, but their Special Teams are not good enough to cover up disadvantages on both sides of the ball. Bruce Arians is a terrific coach, and the Cardinals had a wonderful season, but I don't think they have the horses to win this one.
Cardinals 10 Panthers 23 (CAR -6)
(A6) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ (A3) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Sat. 8:05 - NBC | Steelers -3
The State of the Teams: The big injury news is Leveon Bell out for the Steelers. That should be a sizable loss, as he was the most dynamic dual threat RB in the NFL, and a brilliant outlet option for Roethlisberger. Bell was Top-10 in DVOA and DYAR both rushing and receiver for a RB. He was somewhat of a non-factor in the Steelers win, but just losing the threat of a run really hurts the Steelers offense. The Ravens enter with no major new injuries, key word being new as their secondary was ravaged by injuries through the season to almost comedic proportions. They will get Haloti Ngata back off of a 4-game suspension, which should go further to strengthen their front seven. The issues with the Ravens mainly is their offensive sluggishness over the past few weeks, scoring 20, 13 and 20 over their past three games. Of course, the Ravens were sluggish in a similar fashion heading into the 2012 playoffs. The Steelers defense has improved in recent weeks as their young linebackers continue to make strides. They'll need that level of defensive performance at least going forward.
The Matchup: This rivalry remains intense, but some of the major players have been replaced over the years. Reed and Lewis are gone for the Ravens, while Hines Ward is gone for Pittsburgh. What remains are two fairly evenly matched teams that have somewhat heated intensity between each other. The Steelers are basically unlike any Steelers team from years past. The closest comp was in 2009, but even then they had a Top-5 defense. This year, by DVOA, the Steelers had the #30 defense. It was better in recent weeks, but that is a very recent trend, and that underscores just how bad they were for most of the season. The Steelers, on the other hand, have the #2 offensive DVOA, placing highly against the pass and run. A key edge for them is their deep passing game, which should work given their improved o-line protection and the injuries in the Ravens secondary. The Ravens do match up well with that Pittsburgh defense, a defenisve unit that struggles to stop runs consistently. It is just one of those games were no team really seems to have much of a matchup edge, with both teams matching strength on weakness to a similar degree.
The Pick: I really have no idea in this game, and the line reflects that. With Leveon Bell out these teams are about as close to even as you can get, though in different ways. The Ravens were among the most consistent teams in the NFL, mostly playing good football each week of the year. The Steelers are somewhat the opposite, with some notable struggles and more notable successes. The Ravens haven't beaten the Steelers in the playoffs in recent years, but this is probably the best chance they'll have. Even the weather is helping as a driving rainstorm should help the defense heavy Ravens. I'll go with them, but I'm not confident about that pick at all.
Ravens 23 Steelers 20 (BAL +3)
(A5) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) @ (A4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Sun. 1:05 - CBS | Colts -3.5
The State of the Teams: The Bengals haven't won a playoff game with Andy Dalton and/or Marvin Lewis, haven't you heard? After getting one of those at home last year, they go back on the road to play an AFC South team, just like they did in 2011 and 2012. The Bengals defense is not close to as good as it has been the past three years, and the offense hasn't come close to reaching the heights it did at times last year. That all said, this team has won 9, 10, 11 and 10 games over the past four seasons and skinned some pretty big cats, beating the Broncos, Patriots, Packers and Saints over the past two years. The Colts on the other side put up their third straight 11-win season, but while that may indicate stagnation, their peripherals (DVOA, scoring differential) improved each year. The defense has hit a nice level where they can ruin mediocre to bad offenses, and they come in healthy apart from a late injury to Gosder Cherilus. I guess I can stop burying the lede here, the Bengals will likely be without AJ Green, which is a huge loss. They've already lost Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones. I feel bad for Andy Dalton, as he'll face a giant mountain of criticism if they fall to 0-4 in the playoffs.
The Matchup: The Colts struggle against good offenses. Really struggle, to the tune of 40 points and 450 yards per game. What's nice is the Bengals, without AJ Green, is not a great offense right now. They absolutely shut down the Bengals the first time around, forcing 8-straight three and outs. That won't happen again, but what made the Colts successful on defense the first time should as well. The Bengals pass protection improved as the season went on, but blitz teams like the Colts will give them issues. The Colts have an awful run game, but the Bengals can match them with a bad run defense, and if the Colts continue to bite the bullet and utilize Herron more than Trent Richardson, that run game goes from awful to mediocre. The Colts passing game should have a nice matchup with their TEs against the soft Bengals linebackers. They'll need too to combat the depth of the Bengals secondary. These teams are almost comically similar in DVOA, but the Colts are notably better at home, going 7-1 in Lucas Oil Stadium for a 3rd straight year.
The Pick: The Colts are better at home, dominated them the first time around, and the other side hasn't won a playoff game since 1990 and are missing their best player. Why is this line so low? You can make the case that without AJ Green, the Colts are better even if this game was in Cincinnati. I'm not sure what the deal is here. It seems to obvious. The Colts have the matchup edges against the Bengals offense, and can score in that building against all teams not named the Baltimore Ravens. I don't really see how the Bengals win, but that number is driving me nuts right now.
Bengals 16 Colts 27 (IND -3.5)
(N6) Detroit Lions (11-5) @ (N3) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Sun. 4:45 - FOX | Cowboys -7.5
The State of the Teams: I guess the sharps are thinking the Cowboys are entering this game far better, as this line has only gone up since it opened. The Lions are fully healthy, with Calvin over his midseason injury woes, and Ndamukong Suh un-suspended. The Lions defense has been consistent all year long, never giving up more than 350 yards passing and only allowing one 100-yard rusher. The Lions have a historically good rush defense, keyed by that boy Suh. The Cowboys are fully healthy as well, and playing so, so well right now. They finished December scoring 40 points per game. The did finish just 4-4 at home (meaning they went 8-0 on the road), but their last home game was a 42-7 woodshed-ing of the Colts. The Cowboys defense has stayed reasonably consistent in that 15-20th best defense in the NFL way. The largest outlier really is the Lions offense, which has the same personnel that was among the most voluminous from 2011-2013, but has really struggled in 2014. Stafford's general inaccuracy has hurt them, but so have drops and the lack of a run game. That run game should get worse with Larry Wofford out, though Riaola's return may alleviate some of that.
The Matchup: The Cowboys run more than any team in the NFL other than Seattle. They ran it better than any team in the NFL other than Seattle. Giving Demarco Murray 392 carries may have some troubling long-term effects, but for now he ended the year about as good as he started it. The Cowboys do have a mightily effective passing game, but they've rarely had to rely on it. They might have to given how good that Lions front is. The Lions will throw their main strength, their interior d-line, against the Cowboys relative strength. That matchup may decide this game. On the other side, what happens when two mediocre units match? The Cowboys basically throw 11 average guys out there with good coaching and fundamentals, which works. The Lions do have the ability to explode for 30 points or 400 yards, but that just has not been happening in 2014. The Cowboys will likely go zone, which is a great way to go against an erratic QB that depends on hitting a few deep throws.
The Pick: This line is really high, there's no real other way to say it. I'm shocked the Cowboys are getting so much love. They are at home, and are holistically the better team, but the Lions aren't a great matchup for them. The Lions can play the Cowboys running game to a draw, and Tony Romo and that passing attack just haven't had to do this year. The Cowboys defense is not great, but the Lions aren't really the team to expose that. I do think the Cowboys are better and I would pick them to win but going against a TD number is not a smart decision when you have a defense first team that can keep the Lions within 2 possessions for most of the game.
Lions 20 Cowboys 24 (DET +7.5)
