The Patriots didn't just lose on Monday Night, they were undressed. They performed worse than any New England Patriots team since 2003, when they lost 0-31 on opening Sunday. They performed terribly on both sides of the game. When the starters were in, they were outscored 41-7, and it wasn't a fluke. There were no missed opportunities for New England, or lucky breaks for Kansas City. Hell, New England recovered one of the two fumbles deep in their own territory. New England looked slow, they looked uninterested, and they looked unprepared. They looked like the worst representation of what the 'Patriots Way' used to be. The Patriots are facing a crisis worse than any they've faced since that 0-31 loss, when Tom Jackson claimed that the Patriots players' 'hate their coach'. That time it ended with a Super Bowl win. This time, a Super Bowl looks further away than ever.
The Patriots probably had their nadir on Monday Night, but when you couple a schedule that is quite tough, and a team that doesn't look good on offense or defense, this does seem like a crossroads. There's two big questions. First, is this the end and what is wrong, and then, how did it all get here?
In truth, the Patriots have been declining for a while. The Patriots were not 12-4 good a year ago. Change two or three things and they go 10-6 (like their ridiculous wins over Cleveland and New Orleans). The Patriots scored about 100 fewer points than they did in 2012, and their defense struggled at times. Brady had his worst season since 2006. He was sacked more than he's been since even before that. People blamed the receivers, blamed injuries, blamed the o-line, blamed everything but the most obvious answer: age.
Brady is getting older. He's getting worse. That doesn't mean he's no longer good, or that he wasn't once incredible. All that means is that Brady is a human being that is susceptible to aging. Brady looks even worse this year. Routinely missing throws that Brady from 2010-2012 would have hit in his sleep. There always seemed to be something mystical about the 2010-2012 Patriots, who scored 500+ points in three straight seasons with a short passing game and nothing much outside. Well, that mysticism is over, and it has at least somewhat to do with Brady. His arm isn't worse, but it is more erratic. He's flinging throws that are more inaccurate than ever. This is not a good passing game currently, and that is problem #1.
The NFL is reaching comical levels of QB efficiency right now. The entire league as a whole has a passer rating of 89.6, completing 64.2% of their passes, with a Y/A of 7.2. Brady has a passer rating of 79.1, completing 59.1% of his passes, with a Y/A of 5.8. Sure, he doesn't have a ton of weapons (though that didn't stop him in 2010), but he's basically a bottom-5 QB this year statistically. Certainly, his weapons aren't worse than Geno Smith's, or Jake Locker's, or Austin Davis'. Brady is performing in line with those guys.
So, what has changed? Outside of age, it is the o-line; and this is where Belichick comes in. The Patriots o-line right now is playing terribly. This is the first time that Tom Brady has ever had a less than average o-line, and it shows how dependent the Patriots passing game has been on good o-line play. Right now they're playing a collection of rotating average players in the interior, and two tackles that are playing so below their pedigree it doesn't make sense. The one guy that is missing is Dante Scarnecchia, the Patriots long-time, brilliant o-line coach that retired after last season. With him gone, the line has become a disaster, and Belichick is not helping things.
Belichick has made strange trades of veterans before, and they've all worked pretty well. He's traded Richard Seymour, Randy Moss; cut Lawyer Milloy, and let Asante Samuel walk. All those things worked in the sense that the Patriots continued being good (though they definitely missed Seymour and Samuel), but trading Mankins seemed different. Mankins was still good, and the o-line was already slipping. They traded their one big veteran on that line with no real replacement. Belichick had no real plan, and now he's stuck rotating guys in and out all the time.
I don't know if Belichick just expected someone to take over, or to do what he has done so many times before, but it didn't work this time. It isn't working anywhere, really. He brought in Darrelle Revis, who was supposed to lock down a side of the field like he did in New York (forget that by 2012 he had already regressed below his absolute prime), and Revis has been merely above average to good. The d-line is still quite bad, as Wilfork hasn't really come back from his achilles tear last year 100%. The linebackers look lost, as Jamie Collins looks more like what he was in 2013 apart from his one good game in the Divisional Round against the Colts. The defense was exposed when they didn't have to play Matt Cassel and the Vikings right after the Peterson news broke or the Oakland Raiders. And Belichick is messing with it too, benching Chandler Jones and Alfonzo Dennard, and then Logan Ryan. One can say he's trying to find the right formula, I take it more of a crisis of confidence.
I've never seen a team use benching as a motivational tool quite like the 2014 Patriots. Belichick is never happy, seemingly, with the players on teh field, pulling them and reinserting constantly. It isn't helping make his team any better, that is for sure, but maybe he finds the right formula. It just doesn't seem like that is going to happen. The Patriots might find themselves. After their game against Cincinnati, they get the comfy confines of the AFC East again for two games in six days, but following that they have the following murderer's row of a schedule:
vs. Chicago
vs. Denver
BYE
@ Indianapolis
vs. Detroit
@ Green Bay
@ San Diego
That stretch will define the 2014 Patriots. The team that has taken the field so far through four weeks will go 2-4 at best in that stretch, if not 1-5. The team that has taken the field so far won't go on the road and beat the Colts, Packers or Chargers, and for sure won't beat Denver at home. The team that has taken the field and put up fewer yards per play than any offense in the NFL would be lucky to score 20 against the Lions at home.
Maybe we are all overreacting to one terrible game. Maybe Belichick will pull yet another rabbit out of his at, and a 12-4 record to boot out of his ass. Maybe it happens... but maybe it doesn't. Maybe this is the beginning of the end. Nothing lasts forever in the NFL, and the end comes quickly. Peyton Manning went from a Super Bowl loss, to dragging a team of nothing to a division title in 2010, to moving on from Indianapolis by March, 2012. Brady's path could be somewhat similar. The scariest part of the Patriots start, other than the fact that I could be jinxing them to a 10-game win streak by just writing this, is that they aren't even injured yet.
