32.) Oakland Raiders
(0-4 = 51-103)
In reality, if they play the Jaguars tomorrow anywhere, I would
probably take Oakland, but they get last place for firing the coach. Look, the
Raiders don’t strike me as a particularly well coached team, but Dennis Allen
does not have a lot to work with. To me, doesn’t Reggie McKenzie deserve as
much, if not more, blame? He didn’t inherit a lot, but whatever he did he got
rid of and replaced with mediocre older talent. The Raiders of 2010-11 were
miles better than what they’ve been in the McKenzie era.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-4 = 58-152)
That scoring differential looks comical. They’re on pace to give
up more points than the Broncos scored last year (608 vs. 606). There’s little
chance they’ll give up close to 608 points, but the Jags just have so little on
that side of the ball. Blake Bortles looked OK, I guess, and the schedule does
get, relatively, easier, but it is hard to see this team even matching the 4
wins they had last year.
30.) Tennessee Titans
(1-3 = 60-110)
One of the biggest questions I have through 4 weeks of the NFL
season is ‘how did the Titans destroy the Chiefs in Arrowhead in Week 1?”. They’ve
been awful ever since, including two home games. Ken Whisenhunt seems lost with
that team. I’m sure he’ll be given a year two, but I think right about now he’s
wondering why he took the Titans job and not go to Detroit and chill with a
team with so much more front-line talent.
29.) Washington Redskins
(1-3 = 95-109)
This might be low, but since Griffin is not coming back anytime
soon, I think it is a fair spot. Kirk Cousins just is not that good. He beat up
on the Eagles and Jaguars. In games not against bad defenses, he’s been brutal.
He turns the ball over more per play than Mark Sanchez did. He has no real feel
for throwing. I really hope people realize that Robert Griffin is so much
better than Cousins it doesn’t need to be spoken.
28.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(1-3 = 72-119)
Quality win for the Bucs. I still am not sure how they won relying
on a guy who last did anything with Oakland in 2009 (Louis Murphy), and I’m
pissed that they cost me $500 on a Steelers-Colts-Chargers parlay, but when a
team that looked so depressed the following week gets a win like that it is OK
(I guess). The Bucs defense showed that when healthy they’ll dominate against
the run. Pass defense is still a major issue, though.
27.) New York Jets
(1-3 = 79-96)
The next six or so teams are all about interchangeable for me
right now. The Jets are down here just because their QB can’t stop making dumb
mistakes. He’s definitely has more natural and mental talent than Sanchez, but
he’ll make 2-3 horrific plays a game. The defense has nobody in the secondary,
and it seems that Rex Ryan can do a better job scheming pass pressure with
marginal talent (see: 2010-2012), then scheme pass coverage with the same.
Still, they won’t be an easy out ever.
26.) Buffalo Bills
(2-2 = 79-75)
They should be higher. They could be higher. Hell, beat New
England in Buffalo in two weeks and at worst they will be in a tie for 1st
place 6-weeks through the season (quick math, I guess Miami could be 3-2 – so scratch
that). The defense is rock solid. My issue is, unsurprisingly for all the teams
down this low, QB. I don’t really know if Kyle Orton is the answer. Kyle’s been
a smart QB, but never the most accurate, which was Manuel’s largest problem
overall.
25.) St. Louis Rams
(1-2 = 56-85)
Oh, the Rams. The sad Rams that can never get a break. The year
when the 49ers look in disarray, and the Seahawks look kind of mortal, the Rams
are without their top-2 QBs, and their 2nd best player on defense.
They’re still hell on defense to play, but without Long it is far less scary.
Jeff Fisher will keep them playing tough, and Austin Davis has shown good
accuracy, but being a Jeff Fisher team without a good QB, they’ll be good for
2-3 blowouts over the course of the season.
24.) Cleveland Browns
(1-2 = 74-77)
The Browns are a tough out, but much like the Browns from last
year, or the Bucs from last year, I’m always wary of a team that plays and
loses tough early season games later in the season when, after playing well
enough to potentially have been 7-3, they are 3-7. I don’t know if this will
happen to the Browns, and their offense has exceeded my wildest expectations,
but on the other hand the defense has been as mediocre as I thought it would
be.
23.) Houston Texans
(3-1 = 87-67)
JJ Watt is an alien.
22.) Minnesota Vikings
(2-2 = 91-84)
That was a surprising game. Teddy Bridgewater had a nice
performance, but the real star to me was that McKinnick character who ran for 8
ypc. That was a really nice performance against a team that had been quite good
against the run through three weeks. The defense wasn’t great, but the Vikings
will be this type of team all season. Sadly, for me, that means that they are a
complete stayaway.
21.) New Orleans Saints
(1-3 = 95-110)
The defense is awful, but guess what: Most Rob Ryan defense have
been below average. I’m not wholly surprised. What is still surprising is the
offense. The same issues have plagued them on the road for a good five years
now; namely, an inability to get YAC, and Brees forced to throw earlier than he
wants to. What are 11-yard gains in the Dome become 6-yard gains on the road.
To be shutout against that defense through 30 minutes is inexplicable.
20.) Pittsburgh Steelers
(2-2 = 97-99)
I hate them with the passion of a thousand burning suns given that
they’re idiotic play in the 4th quarter cost me a cool 500 bucks.
Eff all of you. Also, it is sad that Ben Roethlisberger is playing for such a
middling team. Lot of similarities between Ben in 2012-2014 to Philip Rivers
from 2010-12.
19.) Chicago Bears
(2-2 = 92-100)
Does an aged Jared Allen really mean that much? Their pass rush
against a bad pass blocking line was pathetic. You can’t let Rodgers just sit
there. Plus, how did their secondary get so bad in two years? How did the
defense get so bad in two years? Also, how effing unsurprising were their
turnovers in the 2nd half. That just happens to the Bears against
the Packers.
18.) Miami Dolphins
(2-2 = 96-97)
Should games in London even count as wins? Games in London are
always terrible, aside from one fantastic exception where the Chargers beat the
Saints 39-38 in 2008. Maybe they should just replay that game on a loop each
time they do a London game. As for the team, who the hell knows. For their sake,
they get to figure it out in a garbage division.
17.) Dallas Cowboys
(3-1 = 115-86)
I don’t know how they’re 3-1 either. They have a reasonably hard
schedule going forward, but if the defense can continue being average, they
have a shot to win the division. That seemed unthinkable this year when Romo
was lobbing up all the picks in Week 1, but here we are. Man, the NFL is always
interesting.
16.) New England Patriots
(2-2 = 80-90)
Is this the lowest I’ve ever had the Patriots? Well, since I
started this blog after their 1-1 start in 2009, and didn’t do power rankings
after their 1-1 start in 2010, and had them at #8 after their 1-2 start in
2012. It just feels different this time. Nothing seems good about this team.
Even in 2010 and 2012 they had a game where it all worked. This year just seems
like a disaster through four weeks. I’ll write more about the Patriots in depth
later.
15.) Carolina Panthers (2-2 = 73-96)
The Panthers have looked so bad on defense the last two weeks. Everyone is open. All running backs are getting a consistent 5-6 yards on every rush. Now, maybe the Ravens are just better than anyone expected, but the Panthers defense that was so good in Wk 1-2 has been so, so bad. I can't imagine that continuing, but it is hard to imagine them really being good enough to win games 20-17 consistently.
14.) Atlanta Falcons (2-2 = 131-113)
Well, I guess this is the team that is going to play games 35-31 each week, with both offenses putting up 400+ yards. With two o-lineman going down for the year, it is hard to imagine that Matt Ryan's great start will continue all year, but they still have Julio Jones, which is what they missed more than anything last year.
13.) Phildelphia Eagles (3-1 = 122-104)
I don't think that loss exposed them. I mean, if they didn't have three non-offensive TDs and had three offensive possessions instead, they probably put up more than 112 yards in the first 58 minutes. That said, the run game is suddenly terrible, and against teams that can play screens, they really have no good answers. The Eagles defense continues to be surprisingly competent, and they'll get better once their lineman get healthy, but they are a really unconvincing 3-1 right now.
12.) New York Giants (2-2 = 103-91)
Yeah, I'm buying in again. Screw me now before I bet on them to cover against Altanta...
11.) San Francisco 49ers (2-2 = 88-89)
Big win for them. They were staring a dark place down 21-10 in the 2nd quarter against Philadelphia. What can you say about a team that doesn't give up a point on defense against a good offense? That despite missing Bowman and Aldon. They still have a physical presence. If only Kaepernick had gotten better at literally anything in the past two seasons.
10.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-2 = 102-79)
People were so down on them after Week 1 (for good reason), but their resume now reads being two yards away from taking Denver to OT in Denver, beating Miami comfortably in Miami, and then raising all kinds of hell against New England. Just for undressing the Pats like that, I'll love them forever. The Chiefs do still have enough talent on defense to keep them in games, and Andy Reid is scheming the shit out of this offense. Fun team to watch, really.
9.) Green Bay Packers (2-2 = 92-96)
I didn't want to get too down after the loss to the Lions, and I don't want to go too high in that win. Rodgers wasn't touched, but that rarely happens. Packers fans will r-e-l-a-x, and probably will continue after this week, but they still don't seem quite right. The defense is still terrible, but it was nice to see them get their patented turnovers like they used to back in the good old days.
8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2 = 136-95)
The highest scoring team in the NFL just rolled off back-to-back wins scoring 40+ and giving up less than 20. Sure, they played two of the worst teams in the NFL, but still this is a step up for the Colts. They had winnable games and smashed the opponent. Also, Andrew Luck is a God amongst men right now. There are three QBs who have been awesome so far, Rivers, Luck and that boy Manning out in Denver.
7.) Detroit Lions (3-1 = 85-62)
Solid win for them. They didn't play perfect, didn't do much with Calvin, yet went on the road and beat a team without breaking too much of a sweat. Jim Caldwell was brought into Detroit to bring stability, to bring professionalism. He's done that and more. Sure, the 'same old Lions' showed up in the loss to Carolina, but the other three games for them have been all class so far. That defense is now the better part of the team, and if they want to go anywhere, that should continue.
6.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1 = 103-60)
Joe Flacco looks really good in that offense. Now, Steve Smith will probably not match those stats again this year, but Flacco looks confident, decisive and in rhythm, something that has not been true since January 2013. The defense may have lost their leaders, but Suggs and Ngata are still there. They have more communication errors than they used to, but they'll never be embarrassed. Just a solid, solid team.
5.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0 = 66-45)
They probably should have lost to San Diego, and they weren't all that great against New York, and they won mysteriously against San Francisco, and Palmer is still not healthy, but I'm not betting against Bruce Arians. I'm not betting against Todd Bowles' defense either, which is something I can't believe I'm writing given that I watched the 2012 Eagles 'defense'.
4.) Denver Broncos (2-1 = 75-67)
Well, given how well the Colts and Chiefs have played the last two weeks (winning their games by an average score of 40-16), the close wins that the Broncos have against them don't look as bad anymore. That defense has probably been better than most people think, as has the offense. They're fine really. I probably should have them higher, but then this early it is hard to rank Denver, Seattle and San Diego any other way given the two games between them three.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1 = 83-66)
The Seahawks probably used their bye to figure out how to defend switch verticals, but what I would have used it is to figure out how to use Percy Harvin in non-Jet Sweep plays. They still don't really get the best out of him. Anyway, not many real flaws with that team. It will be interesting to see how they play on the road in a primetime game. They haven't done that too many times recently, and the last time they did (a TNF game last year in St. Louis) they should have lost.
2.) San Diego Chargers (3-1 = 102-63)
Obviously, beating Jacksonville is no huge task, but I'll give them credit for pulling away after a relatively slow start. That place is rocking these days, and Philip Rivers continues to be awesome. I really have nothing much to say about this team. I still feel eventually the Broncos will overtake them in the division, but watching the Chargers ball out with Phil Rivers playing this well after everyone wrote him off two years ago is a lot of fun.
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 = 80-33)
They get the unfortunate task of playing a team that is still probably good who just got embarrassed. Playing bad teams after they got embarrassed is tough enough (see: Pittsburgh last week). However, they also get the enviable task to show America just how good they are. There is nothing that they do badly at this point. They already had one of the best rosters when you look past QB, but Dalton has been good enough this year. This is a real test, but a great chance to show how good they really are.
Looking Ahead to Next Week:
Byes: Miami (2-2); Oakland (0-4)
Byes: Miami (2-2); Oakland (0-4)
Well, it is a lot better than last week when it was all the good teams on the bye. Also, why did the NFL switch from having just 4 teams on the bye each week for 8 weeks to this weird system where discriminant amount of teams are on the bye?
15.) Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-3)
(1:00 - CBS)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-4) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) @ New Orleans Saints
(1-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "I just don't care about these games" Sunday, as... I just don't care about these three games. I guess seeing if New Orleans is truly dead or not matters, but who really cares when they are going to go 2-6 on the road and 7-1 at home anyway?
12.) Minnesota Vikings (2-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2) (TNF - CBS)
11.) Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ Washington Redskins
(1-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "One of these night games is going to be a blowout, the other is going to be a disaster" Thursday and Monday, as to me one of these two seemingly one-sided games will be close. I really can't tell which. Gun to my head says the Vikings could play Green Bay close, as the talent difference between those two is mainly the QB, but we've seen Rodgers this year struggle against teams that could rush well, which the Vikings can.
10.) Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Detroit Lions (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Houston Texans (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
(1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Is the NFC really better than the AFC?" Sunday, as we have two middle of the road AFC teams take the road to play two suprising NFC teams at 3-1. You would think the fact that the Lions and Cowboys being 3-1 would speak even more to the depth of the NFC, but that comes at the expense of the Saints being 1-3, the 49ers and Bears being 2-2, etc. I don't think either will win, but like my two night games right before, I wouldn't be surprised if one is really close.
8.) St. Louis Rams (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) New York Jets (1-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-1)
(4:25 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (2-2) @ New York Giants (2-2)
(1:00 - FOX)
I call it "games I care about more than I should" as they all have interesting matchups. Mainly, can three solid defense play well against three very good offenses. After two weeks of defenses having the edge league-wide, offenses have been incredble the past two weeks. The Rams and Jets are by no means good defenses, but they have good fronts. The Giants are, to me, a good defense, and can easily give the good offense of the Falcons problems.
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (4:25 - CBS)
4.) Chicago Bears (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (2-2)
(1:00 - FOX)
I call it "2-3 is a lot different than 3-2" Sunday, as these are two of my favorite games where one will leave happy at 3-2, the other sad at 2-3. The 49ers can't really afford another loss this early. The Chiefs can't either in a suprirsingly tight AFC. The Bears and Panthers probably can, but one would love to be 3-2. The Panthers need to show up, as does the Bears defense. Who would have thought that that could be a really high scoring game.
3.) Arizona Cardinals (3-0) @ Denver Broncos (2-1) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Remember that time I thought Manning was going to go to Arizona" Sunday, as this game will make me remember when I thought Manning was a lock to go to the desert. Looking at them now, I think Manning would have filled in quite well, but the Broncos have been fine. Great game if Carson Palmer plays. Less so if it is Drew Stanton.
2.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Rivalry Continues" Sunday, as what was once an awesome rivalry in the Manning era gets to begin anew. They did meet in a forgettable Wild Card game two years ago, but that was Luck's first year. Both these teams are riding high right now. This is a great opportunity for the Colts to show up against a team that isn't terrible like they did the last two weeks.
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) @ New England Patriots (2-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Anything can Happen" Sunday, as I would imagine anything happening in this game. I've thought the Patriots were falling apart before, only for them to win huge. Three years ago, following losses to Pittsburgh and New York, they went to play the Jets on a Sunday Night and won 37-16. Of course, that Patriots team was good enough to be 5-1 before the losing streak and made the Super Bowl. This one looks average or below at everything. The Bengals are better, and I could see them winning by 14+ as well. All the range of possibilities are in play in this one.
