Brady vs. Manning: The Rivalry - Ranking the Games, Pt. 2

Tier IV - The Great Games

5.) 2003 Week 13 - Patriots 38  @  Colts 34

Review: Now we get to the true classics. These were easily the 5-best games in this rivalry, and it starts with a special game. This was the first real game of the rivalry. After not playing in 2002, they met in 2003 both teams at 9-2. The Patriots jumped out to an early lead of 17-0, but the Colts clawed back to 17-10 near halftime. Then, in what would soon become a recurring trend in these games, the Colts kick-coverage allowed a Bethel Johnson TD before half. The Patriots extended their lead to 31-10. Manning threw a pick on the next drive, and then it began. For some reason, Belichick decided that letting Brady throw was the best way to ice the game. First came one pick, that the Colts cashed in with a TD. Then another pick by Brady, which the Colts turned into another TD. That happened in 5 minutes. The Patriots then went three and out, and the Colts got another TD to tie it. Special teams failed again with another big return and TD for New England. Brady was strip-sacked inside the 20, which the Colts turned into a field goal, and then threw two incomplete passes. The Colts got the ball back, needing a TD to win, and drove effortlessly down to the 2. Then was the worst series in Peyton Manning’s career to date. Two Edge James runs got nothing. A fade went incomplete, and then on 4^th down Edge James was stuffed behind the line by Willie McGinest. The game ended, and it was the first classic played between these two QBs. Even in loss, Manning far outplayed Brady, who’s awful 2^nd half performance was the only reason the Patriots came close to losing.

Interesting/Memorable Plays: On that final drive by the Colts, twice the Patriots faked injuries to stop the Colts no-huddle. I say faked because those players returned rather quickly into the game, and because the Patriots effectively admitted it later. The worst was Willie McGinest, who needed help to get off the field on the play that gave the Colts a 1^st and Goal, but was healthy enough minutes later to tackle James on 4^th down and sprint down the field in celebration.

4.) 2013 Week 12 - Broncos 31  @  Patriots 34 (OT)

Review: I think everyone knows this game. It was the game that reversed every trend that has ever happened in the series previously. If the series was known for anything to date, it was the Brady led team screaming out of the gate to a big lead, before Manning clawing his team back in it. This time it was the reverse, with Denver rolling to a 24-0 lead at halftime before a furious rally by the Patriots. Earlier games featured the Patriots running well, turning the Colts over, and maybe scoring a defensive TD. This game had the Broncos run effortlessly for nearly 300 yards (228 for Moreno), and turn the Patriots over on each of their first three possessions, including a fumble return TD by Von Miller. This game was set-up to be the ultimate wildcard. But on cue, Brady brought his team back. It was aided by a terrible fumble by Hillman (essentially the last time he would touch the ball all YEAR) and a bad pick by Manning, but the Patriots scored 31 straight points to take a 7-point lead. Of course, that is where the game gets interesting. Despite being held back by hard winds limiting his passing game and a running game that got yards at will, Manning led a nice TD drive to tie the game. It was the one time all game he had to throw, and he did effectively and the Broncos tied it at 31. Of course, then after a ridiculous string of possessions in a game that featured just 7 punts on the proceeding 22 drives, the two teams punted five straight times through most of OT. Both defenses bunkered down nicely, finally. The game ended when the Broncos muffed a punt that Wes Welker was set up to return. The Patriots recovered in field goal territory, hit a field goal with a minute left in OT, and walked away with a dramatic, amazing win.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: People criticize Manning’s performance in this game. Yes, he didn’t play all that well, easily his worst game in the 2013 regular season. But When down 31-24, he led a 10-play drive for a TD to tie the game. After the game was tied, the Broncos gained 78 more yards, the Patriots 60. It was an extremely even game, ended by a muffed punt.

Interesting/Memorable Fact 2: This is the first time since the first matchup they ever played that the team with the worse record heading into the game won. It is a crazy stat, but heading into all but this game, the team who won either had a better record, or a tied record.

3.) 2007 Week 9 - Patriots 24  @  Colts 20

Review: There was never a regular-season game that was more hyped than this one. It was deemed Super Bowl 41.5, a catchy moniker for a game featuring two teams that seemed so much better than everyone else. Even considering that, the Patriots were viewed as so much better than Indy, being 7-point favorites. No one had slowed down New England to date. The Colts did. The Colts played cover-2 better than they ever have, holding Brady to short games, pressuring him, picking him off twice. They did what was thought impossible to the Patriots offense. The Patriots defense, an underrated unit on that 2007 team, held the Colts offense down as well. What was key really was holding the Colts to two field goals early inside the 10-yard line. The Colts far outplayed the Patriots early, but found themselves trailing near halftime 7-6. Then came the first amazing play. A simple dump-off to Joe Addai with halftime imminent became a long TD on a weaving catch-and-run by Joe. The Patriots added a field goal, but then Brady thew a pick on an amazing play by Gary Brackett, which led to a Colts TD on a Manning sneak. The Colts found themselves up 20-10, and then it all went to hell. Manning’s o-line started playing disastrously, including emergency LT Charlie Johnson getting abused by various Patriots. Brady hit a few deep balls after finding nothing short, and brought the Patriots back. The Pats took a 24-20 lead, and the Colts drove near midfield until Jonson was again beat badly for a strip-sack. The Patriots got their 1^st down to ice it, but the game was more notable for how competitive it was. The Patriots were so untouchable over the first 8 weeks of the season, it seemed unreal that the Colts had them down 20-10. Due to the Patriots not ending up undefeated, and having a more notable near loss in the regular season to Baltimore, this game gets forgotten, but given that more people watched it than any regular season game ever, it shouldn’t be forgotten.

Interesting/Memorable Play: With the Colts leading 13-10 near the end of the 3^rd quarter, Reggie Wayne dropped a perfect pass from Peyton Manning that likely is a TD. The Colts did take a 20-10 lead later, but it was a huge play in the course of the game.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: The Patriots were so dominant heading into this game, that they were 6-point favorites in Indianapolis, despite the Colts being themselves undefeated, and having won their last two games, on the road, by a combined 60-14.

Tier V - The Epic

2.) 2009 Week 10 - Patriots 34  @  Colts 35

Review: 4^th and 2. Not much more to say about this game. Instead of actually recapping it, I’ll just re-post what I wrote about the game at the time:

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However, this is not all about Bill Belichick's decision. Not at all. This is more about the Colts getting outplayed for three quarters, looking like paper tigers, and then DOMINATING the Pats in the fouth quarter.

That said, I feel compelled to start with the 4th and 2 decision. It was an extremely risky decision, but one that was mathematically defendable. This was their scenario: punt and let the Colts drive 70 yards in two minutes and win the game, or go for it and either win the game or give it back to Manning at the 29 with two minutes to go. Now, the chances of the Pats winning (either making the two yards or stopping the Colts) are basically the same either way in a vaccuum, taking away the account of who they were playing and game scenario. The math states that converting a 4th and 2 is done roughly 63% of the time. Adding that to the chances of the Pats stopping the Colts if they do not convert the fourth down, which is roughly 40%, gives the chances of the Pats winning by going for it at a clean 77%. The Chances that the Colts drive 70 yards for the touchdown are roughly 30%, so the Pats have a better chance of winning going for it. That said, that does not adjust for the fact that the opposing QB is Peyton Manning, or that the Colts defense was winning nearly every important play in the fourth quarter. Anyway, it is a debatable call, but definitely not a brilliant move or a idiotic one. It was a risky one, and one that would have either coronated Belichick as the ballsiest coach of all time or the loser in the greatest football-related version of Russian Roullette.

Now, let's get to the actual game. Leaving the game, the general public's perception was "Pats Dominated", "Colts were lucky", "Belichick cost his team the game." This is complete bullshit. Complete. The Pats dominated a one and a half quarter portion of this game starting from the middle of the first through the end of the half. Their drives in this portion netted them touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown and Indy's drive netted them Punt, Punt, Punt, touchdown (I'll throw in that touchdown just to make the amount of drives even). The Pats got 273 yards and the Colts got 91. Now, that is Florida vs Alaska A&M type domination but was just one and a half quarter. Here was the end of the third through the end of the game: Pats: touchdown (after the long Welker punt return), punt, field goal, downs. Here is Indy's drives in the same part of that game: touchdown, interception, touchdown, touchdown. In that part of the game the Pats got 54 yards and the Colts got 153. Pretty much equal domination. People always seem to overrate the team that jumps out to a big lead and underrate the team that made the comeback. Just becuase the Pats outscored the Colts in one stretch 24-7, does not mean the Colts cannot outscore them similarily. The Pats did not outplay the Colts for the entire game. Also, the Colts were not lucky. They probably score on that drive even if the Pats punted it to them. Finally, Belichick's decision was not the reason the Colts won, it was the reason the Pats did not win easily. Also, many of the big plays by the Pats early were schematic problems by the Colts, as they played a deep zone against Moss, instead of manning him up with safety shadow help like they did in 2007 when they held those Pats to 24. They can correct those problems. We all know that the arrogant Pats would not simply play ball-control, clock-draining offense and still try to pour on, and they were held to 10 points in the second half, when the Colts made the defensive adjustments.

The game was a total domination in the fourth quarter by the Colts and a total breakdown by the Patriots. The Patriots were simply outplayed for the entirety of the fourth quarter. The Patriots managed two first downs in the fourth quarter, and the Colts scored three touchdowns, spanning 153 yards in a total of five minutes and forty seconds. Contrary to popular belief, the Pats were not playing prevent for either of the first two touchdown drives. Manning made adjustments to what Belichick was doing, which was essentially doubling Clark and Wayne and forcing Garcon and Collie to beat them, and then Belichick had no answers. The only negative play was the interception which was a result of lack of communication. As for the Pats offense, what people failed to remember due to Belichick's boner, was their inability to gain yards when it mattered. Four times Brady threw on third or fourth down in that quarter, and he was 0-4. The Pats ran the ball six times for three (yes, THREE!!!) yards in the fourth quarter. The Colts defense dominated them. The Pats are one of the better teams at playing smart, clock-draining football in the fourth quarter (remember the 07 Title game against San Diego when they ran out the last 9 minutes of the game), but were simply awful. Even when the Colts handed them a short field, they went 5 and out, and kicked a field goal. It was awful. The Colts dominated when it mattered, in the fourth quarter. The reason the Colts were totally outplayed early on was schematic, and of course the Pats playing exceptional defensively and Moss playing like Moss. The reason the Colts dominated was great adjustments by the offense (again), and the defense changing schemes and dominating an awful Pats running game and suddenly plodding passing game. The Pats blew it, the Colts earned it. The Colts dominated them in the fourth quarter, and as anybody will tell you, that is the quarter that matters in a close game.

Now, this is where I will start to wax poetic about the rivalry at this point.

It is absolutely stunning how the dynamic of this rivalry has completely changed in the past four years. From 2001-2004, and mostly in 2003-2004, the Pats were the team that had the no-name defense, with street defensive backs like Randall Gay and a young Asante Samuel, and Jarvis Green, and the quadro of stout, smart linebackers. The Colts were the flashy team with high-powered offense and a defense that was fine against the Dolphins or the Titans but could not hold up against the big boys. The games, at least the regular season games in 2003-2004, played out to a diametric opposite of Sunday Night's. In both meetings the Colts "outplayed" the Pats, coming one yard away from winning the 2003 game, before Willie McGinest stoning Edgerrin James on the one yard line (if anything personified those Pats teams, and how the physically and mentally intimidated the Colts, it was that McGinest tackle and the play in the 2004 Divisional when Tedy Bruschi literally ripped the ball out of the hands of Dominic Rhodes). Then, a year later in the 2004 game, the Pats were outplayed, except Manning threw an interception in the red zone and James fumbled at the 2 yard line (much like Maroney did), and missed a 48 yard field goal to send it into overtime. Now, all the Colts fans, including myself, thought "they got lucky, the Colts were two plays away, they will win come playoff time." Then, come playoff time, it did not happen. Belichick's defense was in Manning's head. Our defense was helpless against Brady. Each time we played, regardless of how the stats played out, how the game played out, when we looked at the scoreboard, the Colts had fewer points than the Patriots. It was a matter of life, we could roll against the Bengals, and the Bears, but when we needed to man-up and fight, the Colts wanted to fence, the Pats wanted to box.

It is crazy how it has changed. The Pats are now the high-flying team, with the insanely good receivers and the QB with all the stats. They are now the team whose defense could shut down the Titans and the Bucs, but are just average against good offensive teams. The Colts are a team missing many offensive and defensive starters, but have Manning. They play next-man-up to a Patriot level on defense. They are now the smarter, more focused, more tough football team. The Colts are the team now who execute in crunch time. Save for the 2007 game, where the Pats came back valiantly from 10 down in the fourth quarter, which can be contrasted with the 2003 game when the Colts nearly came back from a 21 defecit in the last 20 minutes as the exception to the norm, the Colts have dominated since 2005. For all the "Manning can't beat the Pats" stories that circulated the media-world much like swine-flu is supposed to infiltrate the human-world, there should be similar "Brady can't beat the Colts" headlines now. It was not Manning, but the Colts that could not mentally play smart in late, close games, and now it is the Pats, not Brady. Much like Belichick was clearly in Manning's head in 2003 and 2004, Manning is now in Belichick's head. Belichick can say what he wants, but if the team they were playing was 30 other teams, he punts on 4th and 2. It might be respect, it might be abject fear, but it is really both. Manning has owned Belichick in late game situations, save for that 2007 game. Remember, Manning came within one yard of leading the Colts back from a 31-10 deficit with 20 minutes left in 2003, and then overcame a 21-3 deficit in the 2006 Title Game. Now, he has done the trifecta, coming back from a 34-17 4th quarter deficit. Belichick now knows that games are NEVER over against Peyton. Never. He supposedly preached "60 Minutes" till the cocks crowed after the 2006 meltdown, but it is stunning that it happened again, and although the stakes were certainly greater than, the order of diffuculty of the comeback was more this time. These teams may very well meet again in the playoffs, but I am sure that Manning and the Colts have the mental edge.

In 2003 and 2004, we entered those playoff games with an offensive arrogance, "we cannot be stopped... pffft Patriots defense". We entered those games with the knowledge that we were centimeters away from winning the earlier game. We were slaughtered like lambs in those playoff games (although it must be said that the 2003 Title game was amazing, since even though there was really shoddy officiating, and we handed the Pats 5 turnovers and a safety, Manning had the ball with the opportunity to tie the game in the fourth quarter). This is now the opposite. Pats fans can console themselves in their perceived domination, the can console themselves that they nearly beat the Colts, that they should have, would have. They can enter their game off thier 31-20 beating of Cincy or whatever it may be. They will not win. We have the mental edge. The players know it. If the Pats would win a game against the Colts, it would have been this one, with Gonzalez and Hayden out, with Garcon playing one of his worst games, with Manning throwing two picks of uncharacteristic natures, and with the defense playing a scheme so irrational that it deservedly lended us to spotting them a 24-7 advantage. Yet, at the end of the day, the same team was ahead. The same team pulled out the game. The same team won every critical fourth down battle, stopped the high-powered Pats offense when it mattered late, and took advantage of mistakes and stuck a stake in the Pats home-field advantage aspirations. I could have written those last five sentences and switched "Pats" with "Colts" and I could have been describing a 2003 game, when there was, as we know now, a mental edge that the Pats just had. It has all changed, and it is so sweet. Now, the Pats want to fence, and we want to box.

Tier VI - The Game that Defined a Decade 

1.) 2006 AFC Championship – (A4) Patriots 34 @ (A3) Colts 38

Review: This might just go down as the most famous non-Super Bowl in the modern NFL. It was the game that best personified the Manning/Brady rivalry, as it was the first time both really played well in the same game, and that combined with a little comeback, some crazy scores and a great finish equated two the best Championship Game maybe ever. It all started out so normal for Colts fans, as the Patriots looked like the Patriots from their dynasty days, and the Colts looked like little sheep. After trading punts, the Patriots sandwiched a Colts field goal with two TDs that both featured 4th down conversions during the drive. Then, already up 14-3 midway through the 2nd, Asante Samuel picked off Manning and raced back for what looked to be a game-stopper. The Patriots compounded this dominance by sacking Manning twice on the next drive (although they nearly allowed a 97-yard TD to Marvin Harrison), and driving on their next possession inside the 20, until a little offensive-pass interference pushed that drive back. The Patriots had to punt, and the Colts put together their first real fluid drive of the game right before the half. They had to settle for a field goal, but the game was back to normal pace, and, as many Patriots would later attest, Manning had figured it out. 32 points in the 2nd Half later, that much was obvious. The Colts first scored TDs on back-to-back possessions to start the 3rd quarter, erasing the 15 point deficit in 11 minutes. The Patriots answered with a crazy scrambling TD toss after a long kick-off return by Hobbs. The Colts answered that with a TD drive that included a beautiful sideline post route to Dallas Clark. That score happened early in the 4th Quarter, which would prove to be among the most dramatic quarters in NFL history. First, the teams traded punts and then they traded field goals. The Patriots were aided by good special teams returns, but also didn't get what looked like a pass interference call which forced them to kick a field goal to make it 34-31. Then, looking at 80 yards to potentially change his whole career, with just 3:43 on teh clock, Manning threw three straight incompletions. It was Manning fulfilling so many's worst impressions, as he "failed in the clutch." Luckily for Manning, Brady and the Pats, for what would be the first time late in a close playoff game, choked harder. Needing just one first down to essentially wrap up the game, the Pats were first called for a 12-man in the huddle penalty (something completely forgotten about the game), then after two quick completions, the Pats had a 3rd and 4. Four yards away from another win against the Colts. Four yards away from beating the Colts in their own building, and a date with an eminently beatable Chicago team. The Pats went for the kill, as they spread the field and tried to hit Troy Brown on a route that he's run hundreds of times, but Sanders read it and nearly picked off Brady. Manning got one more chance to perform big in the clutch, and that he did. Against a furious pass rush, Manning completed a quick 11-yarder to Wayne, a deep post for 32 to Fletcher off his back foot and a 21-yarder to Wayne. Then, with 1st and 10 at the 11, the Colts did the most un-Colts-like thing: run three straight times, pounding it down the "physical" Pats. Addai scored on 3rd and 3, finally giving the Colts the lead. The Patriots would go as far as midfield on the next drive, but Brady finally threw a pick at a 'clutch' moment, as Marlin Jackson caught it and slid to the ground, hugging the ball. The RCA Dome exploded like never before, and the rivalry, and league in general (I'll get to this) was never the same.

Interesting/Memorable Plays: Three lineman scored touchdowns in this game. One was the Colts pulling a Belichick on the Pats, with Manning tossing a 1-yard pass to Dan Klecko, but the other two made for an eery coincidence, as both Logan Mankins and Jeff Saturday recovered fumbles by their running back in the end zone for touchdowns.

Interesting/Memorable Player: Reche Caldwell had a notoriously awful game. He had just two catches, and two infamous drops. One was a wide-open drop in the end zone. The other was more infamous, as the play started with teh Colts having only 10 guys on defense, and leaving Caldwell wide open. Caldwell furiously waved his arms trying to get Brady's attention, but never could. By the time the ball was snapped the Colts were racing over the Caldwell, but he dropped a simple catch. Of course, nothing is more memorable from Caldwell than his deer eyes.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: This was the largest comeback ever in a conference championship game, with the Colts coming down from 21-3. The Colts also set a record for most points in the 2nd Half of a Title Game, with 32. From the 2:00 Warning of the 1st to the end of the game, the Colts outscored the Pats 35-13, and outgained them 289-115.

Interesting/Memorable Fact: I'll write more about this later, but this game was arguably the game that started the NFL's paradigm shift to offense-first teams. The previous six teams to win teh Super Bowl before 2006 (Ravens, Pats, Bucs, Steelers) were all defense first teams that allowed under 300 points. Including the '06 Colts, the last six (Colts, Giants twice, Steelers, Saints, Packers) have been more mixed, with four allowing more than 300 points, including the three of the four highest totals for  Super Bowl winning teams. The game also signalled the end of the defense-first Patriots that won Super Bowls. Fuming over the offenses inability to put up more points in teh 2nd half, the Pats went out and traded for Stallworth, Welker and Moss and turned into an offensive juggernaut. The modern pass-happy NFL started that night, and all because Brady couldn't complete a simple 4-yard pass to Troy Brown.