32.) Oakland Raiders (0-7 = 105-181)
Can they go 0-16? You look ahead at their schedule and it doesn't seem that preposterous. Their best chances are probably hosting KC on TNF on November 20th, or a trip to St. Louis the Sunday before that. They are definitely far better than the 2008 Detroit Lions, and will be a more talented 0-16, but the schedule-makers did no favors for this team.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6 = 133-223)
The Buccaneers are still bad, but I like this whole 'let's alternate between playing absolutely pitiful on defense and playing decent on defense' strategy they have. I still think if Lovie Smith is given time, they can build something in Tampa Bay. Locking down Gerald McCoy was the first step of the puzzle. Looking back at Lovie's tenure in Chicago and it started similarly badly, as they started 2004 at 1-5. The one difference was that defense wasn't all that bad.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7 = 118-218)
That -100 point differential is staggering, given that they have won a game comfortably, and lost one game by less than 10 points. It's far worse than Oakland's who is winless. Blake Bortles is sure throwing a lot of interceptions. I still think he looks like he has more going for him than Gabbert ever did, but that is not showing at all in his actual performance.
29.) New York Jets (1-7 = 144-228)
I never expected this. I think this is a case of a fragile team getting pounded early by a really tough schedule. Can you even remember that they were once 1-0, and leading Green Bay big at halftime in Week 2. Since then it has been all downhill. There was close losses early, and apart from the San Diego game they never looked awful. Hell, they came one field goal away from beating New England. Then that happened. Geno Smith is done, and Rex Ryan is probably not fair behind.
28.) Tennessee Titans (2-6 = 137-202)
Zach Mettenberg didn't really show anything one way or the other in that game. He looked poised to a point and didn't look lost on the field. He utilized Justin Hunter more in one game than Whitehurst seemed to in three. There is just no real talent on this team. Given how competitive the middle of the AFC is this year, they might just lose enough games to get a high enough pick to start amending that this offseason.
27.) Atlanta Falcons (2-6 = 192-221)
Once again they are on pace to go 4-12. This team is better than 2-6 (their point differential is far better - though skewed by the 56-14 win). Problem is that their bad areas aren't going to get better anytime soon, like the o-line or the pass rush. They have some intriguing pieces going forward, but I am worried what happens if Mike Smith leaves, and if Matt Ryan can survive and return to being very good after being beaten senseless this year and last.
26.) St. Louis Rams (2-5 = 136-210)
To win a tease I needed them to lose by fewer than 14.5. Leading 7-0 after a few minutes I was feeling good. Down just 10-7 at the half I was feeling good. Then Kniles Davis had to have a kickoff return, and the Rams decided to stop playing down 17-7. I wholly think that Gregg Williams is the wrong coordinator for this team. He is needlessly aggressive.
25.) Washington Redskins (3-5 = 171-200)
Yes, I'm not moving them too far up for one good game on the road against a divisional opponent. That said, what Colt McCoy has done is show uncanny accuracy. He followed up going 11-12 in the 2nd half against Tennessee by going 25-30 for the entire game. That is pretty special... and in no way sustainable. What is also not sustainable is this incredibly heavy blitzing on defense.
24.) Chicago Bears (3-5 = 180-222)
I think Marc Trestman can call an offense, but they seem very unprepared for a lot of games. I was not expecting much at all from them that game, given that they had no answer for a similar but less talented offense in Miami the week earlier. Still, I was expecting a little more than allowing Shea McClellin to go one-on-one with Rob Gronkowski. They fell victim to the Patriots patented 'Holy Hell, who is ever going to beat this team game" (it was Pittsburgh last year, losing 33-51), but they showed no flex at all.
23.) Minnesota Vikings (3-5 = 139-173)
With a winnable game coming up at home and a trip to Chicago after the bye, they can head into a showdown with Green Bay at 5-5. Of course, that scenario involves two 'if's, and they'll likely lose badly to Green Bay, but this Minnesota team is winning with less talent and will likely end this season at 6-10, which didn't look too likely two weeks ago. Bridgewater is a little erratic, but man can he sling it at times. Also, nice to see Anthony Barr finally do something.
22.) New York Giants (3-4 = 154-169)
The Giants head into a Monday Night game without much real hope unless they can go on a long winning streak. With the Lions, Cardinals and Cowboys really coming into their own, there are just less available spots this time around. The Giants are in an interesting period, without some interesting young players, but an aging QB. Handling this situation will really define the next 15 years of Giants football.
21.) Houston Texans (4-4 = 185-166)
Somehow they are 4-4, and actually have a positive point differential. However, that record puts them just 11th in the AFC, looking up at a ridiculously complex Wild Card race. Sure, some teams will take themselves out, and the Texans happen to be in the one division with two bad teams, but the Texans will have to really lean on Arian Foster going forward. Also, they won't be playing Zach Mettenberger each week.
20.) Cleveland Browns (4-3 = 163-152)
That wasn't a dominant win, but an important one. After their 3-2 start, they had a seemingly easy three-game stretch. Then they went out and played like dogshit in the first of those games. A close one here and it would have raised some questions. Instead, they took care of business, the one thing I, and all Browns fans, really wanted to see. There are still holes, but with another easy game to come, they can go to 5-3 after eight games, which would be their best by far since 2007.
19.) Carolina Panthers (3-4-1 = 167-208)
Tough loss for a team that should have been up by far more in the first half. They blew some TD opportunities, and the mistake fumble killed another red zone chance. It was good to see the defense play well for the first time in a while, but for the 2nd straight year they let the Seahawks drive down and win it after holding them back all game. Being in the NFC South they can retake control with a home win this Thursday, but they may still not be long for the division lead.
18.) New Orleans Saints (3-4 = 199-188)
I'll give them credit for having their first dominant offensive game since Week 1 (I say this knowing how bad Brees looked at times against Tampa Bay), their first real dominant performance across the board. The defense played really well in the red zone. Sure, they were pathetic in between the 20s, but as long as they can make a few red zone stops when needed they can be dangerous. Big test coming up given they are once again failing on the road.
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3 = 205-196)
Let's talk for a minute about Ben Roethlisberger's game, shall we? 40-49 is ridiculous. 522 yards is ridiculous. 6 TDs is ridiculous. That was the most incredible display of QB-ing I've seen in one game against a heretofore good defense since maybe Kurt Warner in the 2009 NFC Wild Card game against Green Bay. Sure, the defense still looked average, but if even 85% of that Ben shows up consistently for the rest of the season that could be a very good team.
16.) Buffalo Bills (5-3 = 178-165)
There they sit at 5-3 still with a good defense (very good d-line), and a passing game that has one explosive weapon. The rest of the passing game doesn't scare you, and they'll have to bide time for one of their two good RBs to come back, but the Bills are definitely in this playoff race. They do have a hard schedule coming up, though, with games against Green Bay, Denver and KC still on the schedule, as well as trips to Miami and New England.
15.) San Francisco 49ers (4-3 = 158-165)
The 49ers probably used that bye week to do nothing but see the rest of the NFC come back to them. The Cardinals are still 2 games up in the division (with a h-2-h win), but the #6 seed is just a half game up - tied in the loss column. Unlike most teams, they only stand to get healthier with Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman set to come back in teh next month or so. The one weakness for them is their o-line injuries. Those guys will not be coming back.
14.) Miami Dolphins (4-3 = 174-151)
I will keep saying this up until they probably miss the playoffs because of it, but the Dolphins are still a 4th and 10, or recovering a fumble after a strip-sack, away from 5-2 and being half a game back of the Patriots. They too have a tough schedule left, starting this very week, but they've already played Green Bay (still have Detroit). All they can really hope is that Week 15 trip to Foxboro is meaningful. Nice to see Ryan Tannehill put up two straight pretty good games.
13.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 = 176-128)
They arguably should be higher, given their at times dominance and their recent win over San Diego, but at some point great coaching and scheme only takes you so far. Their defense is back to their sack-happy ways of last year. For their sake hopefully Hali and Houston stay healthy this time around. What Andy Reid has done in crafting that offense is amazing. Yes, he has his issues with time and game management, but that is so far less meaningful than his ability to gameplan and run an offense.
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1 = 161-164)
Big win for the Bengals, capped with a quality late game drive and a gutsy QB sneak on 4th down from the 2. Yes, they got slightly lucky that Steve Smith was called for a slightly iffy OPI on that potential game-winning TD, but the Bengals came back from their second embarrassment in three weeks with a huge win. This also gives them a season-sweep of the Bengals. Of course, given that they have a tie, they will basically never be in a tiebreaker scenario. Something that will be forgotten 1,400 times by the end of the season.
11.) San Diego Chargers (5-3 = 205-149)
I still like this team, but you can start saying that outside of that amazing Seattle win, they've lost against the three best teams they have played (Arizona, KC, Denver). They still get the return leg in KC, and by record the worst (toughest) games are behind them, but they've fallen back towards the rest of the AFC morrass right now.
10.) Green Bay Packers (5-3 = 222-191)
There's no shame in losing to the Saints in primetime in the Superdome; hell there's no shame even in losing to them in the Superdome by 21. What there is shame is being so pitiful in the red zone. Five trips when Rodgers was in the game resulted in one TD, two field goals and a pick (that was a bad throw anyway on 3rd down). Rodgers did seem hampered by that hamstring injury, but he just didn't play well in the 2nd half.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2 = 203-156)
That was a great game, and a really tough loss. All the credit to Palmer and the Cards for hitting the Brown TD to win the game, but that was awful coverage. Then, we got the 2nd time this year that they drove all the way to the red zone needing a TD to win and couldn't get it. They can put of yards with the best of them, but more and more each week the Eagles have a hard time pickign up big chunks on non-gimmick plays. That defense is staying better than expected, back-end mishaps excluded.
8.) New England Patriots (6-2 = 238-177)
The Bears were the perfect fit for the Patriots. They can't cover TEs to save their life, and without most of their secondary they can't cover WRs either. Needless to say the Broncos can do all these things. The Patriots also limited the Bears on defense, but physical corners like Revis and Browns are perfect for receivers of that size. Impressive performance for a team that has really turned it around from that awful start.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (6-2 = 213-167)
Not going to bump them back too much for losing a close game at home to a divisional rival. They weren't going to win every game going forward. It will be more disconcerting if they lose next week to Arizona at home. I hope Romo's back is healthy, and I more seriously hope he's not going back into games when the back acts up or gets hit again. I also more than anything hope Peyton Manning doesn't lose out on the MVP to another back who rushes for 2,000 yards.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (4-3 = 172-150)
That wasn't a good performance, but their defense showed some life in the Red Zone for the first time all season. They'll need that especially as their offense continues to sputter. No one has realized it yet, but Russell Wilson really hasn't improved much since his rookie season. Now, when he started out amazing as a rookie, that isn't a huge issue, but he needs to take another step forward.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (5-3 = 217-131)
The Ravens may kick themselves for losing that game, but they showed great compete on the road against a desperate team. Joe Flacco didn't play great, but he still looks comfortable in that offense. This may not be the case, but this definitely seems like the most balanced and effective the Ravens offense has been in the Flacco era. They will only get better once Monroe and Osemele get back. That defense is still very good, but they do give up a few too many big plays for my liking.
4.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3 = 250-187)
Obviously that defense was terrible. It was also historically good just one week earlier. Their real level is somewhere in the middle. It may just come down to who they are playing. They need to blitz to be effective. That works far less against good veteran QBs. They have two more of them coming up (Manning, Brady). Both have had recent struggles against the blitz, so it will be interesting to see if the Colts continue that agressiveness after being burned so badly against Pittsburgh.
3.) Detroit Lions (6-2 = 162-126)
Yes, they once again didn't really deserve to win, but wins are wins. They've shown good levels of play with Calvin Johnson playing (remember they did destroy Green Bay and the Giants), and he should be back this week. Not only did they tread water without Megatron, they've remained in first place. Knowing that it is the Lions, this can all change, but that defense is not going anywhere. Losing Fairley hurts, but with a dominant Suh and a deep rotation, they can handle that loss.
2.) Arizona Cardinals (6-1 = 164-139)
DVOA doesn't like them, but that's partly because the offense sputtered with backup QBs for multiple weeks, and their offense is predicated on hitting big throws that are low percentage plays. However, they've done those things, and while they won't get some defenders back, with Campbell coming back they have gotten their best remaining player back. It's also nice to see Larry Fitzgerald back and playing well again.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1 = 224-142)
The offense is not on pace to score as much, but Peyton Manning is in many ways playing better in 2014 than 2013. The running game has been much better with Hillman. Ryan Clady is looking better each week. The defense is one of the best in the league, doing great work against a really tough schedule of offenses so far. Von Miller leads the NFL in sacks. DeMarcus Ware is 3rd. Chris Harris has recovered splendidly from his ACL tear. Everything is going well. If this season is going to have a GREAT team, this is it. Of course that is when it can all go wrong...
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-5
5.) Cincinnati Bengals = 10-5-1
6.) San Diego Chargers = 10-6
NFC
1.) Detroit Lions = 12-4
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 12-4
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 11-5
4.) New Orleans Saints = 9-7
5.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-5
6.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Atlanta (2-6); Buffalo (5-3); Chicago (3-5); Detroit (6-2); Green Bay (5-3); Tennessee (2-6)
Very mixed bag of bye teams this week. After four weeks of having just two bye teams, we now get six once again. Unlike in Week 3, it doesn't include most of the best teams (that week had Denver, Arizona, San Diego and Seattle). We have two very good teams, one surprising contender, two epic disappointments, and the least lovable team in the NFL.
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Oakland Raiders (0-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3) (4:25 - CBS)
11.) New York Jets (1-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) St. Louis Rams (2-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "The 5 games that no one will watch because the rest of the week is so good" Sunday, as these five games feature very bad teams going on the road to play good teams. The chances of all five home teams winning is pretty low. I've ordered them in what I would guess would be most likely to lose to most likely to pull a stunning upset. Honestly, I can't see any of them doing it. If the odds are nice, this could be an intriguing, but ultimately really dumb 5-way parlay.
8.) Washington Redskins (3-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) @ Houston Texans (4-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The Winner will be somewhat in it, and the Loser of the other will be somewhat out of it" Sunday, as the first game will have one team somehow be 4-5, and somewhat in the Wild Card race. On the other side, the loser of the Eagles @ Texans tilt is in rough shape. Well, if it is the Eagles, they aren't in too rough of a shape, but the Texans will be behind a whole lot of teams at 4-5.
6.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ New York Giants (3-4) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "What is the better play, a Night Game after a Bye or a game after being Blowed the Fuck Out" Monday, as the Colts go back on the road after being humiliated on defense, and the Giants are off their bye after being humiliated a week ago to the Eagles. The Colts will likely win their division anyway, but just one week ago they were squarely in play for the #2 seed. A loss here and they'll likely be the #3 at best.
5.) New Orleans Saints (3-4) @ Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) (TNF - NFLN)
4.) San Diego Chargers (5-3) @ Miami Dolphins (4-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The First Real Separation Sunday' Thursday and Sunday, as all four teams are in the thick of the playoff race and getting a head-to-head win would be huge. The Saints go to Carolina where the winner will go back to .500 in that lousy division. A win for the Saints here might even wrap things up this early given it will be hard for them to even go worse than 7-1 at home. For the Chargers and Dolphins the winner goes to 6-3, which is nice because that is a pretty record, but also it allows them to avoid picking up a 4th loss and a loss to a potential wild card competitor.
3.) Arizona Cardinals (6-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Shades of 1998" Sunday, as the Cardinals return to the scene of their franchises' first relevant moment in Arizona, when Jake Plummer took the Cardinals to a playoff win in Dallas in 1998. This could be similar. A win here, over a 2nd consecutive top-ranked NFC East team, would really give the Cardinals some national recognition. What would also be amazing is a 7-1 start to the season, allowing them to finish the 1st half with a two-game lead over the NFC West.
2.) Baltimore Ravens (5-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The return of what was the best rivalry in the NFL" Sunday, as the Ravens and Steelers renew the rivalry with both teams right there at 5-3. The Ravens definitely seem ostensibly better, and dominated the hell out of Pittsburgh back in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, but this is a different, 500-yard Ben Roethlisberger, team. It wouldn't be too surprising if Roethlisberger's passing total drops by 50% in this game. Nice to see after two soft years that this amazing rivalry is back.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1) @ New England Patriots (6-2) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "The War of 18-12, Pt. XVI" Sunday, as it happens once again. It will likely happen again next year after these teams win their division again. It could even happen in January, and this game will go a long way in determining where that possible January game would be played. Still, I will follow my tradition of watching a movie during this game. Which movie you ask... how about 'Once Upon a Time in America'.
Can they go 0-16? You look ahead at their schedule and it doesn't seem that preposterous. Their best chances are probably hosting KC on TNF on November 20th, or a trip to St. Louis the Sunday before that. They are definitely far better than the 2008 Detroit Lions, and will be a more talented 0-16, but the schedule-makers did no favors for this team.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6 = 133-223)
The Buccaneers are still bad, but I like this whole 'let's alternate between playing absolutely pitiful on defense and playing decent on defense' strategy they have. I still think if Lovie Smith is given time, they can build something in Tampa Bay. Locking down Gerald McCoy was the first step of the puzzle. Looking back at Lovie's tenure in Chicago and it started similarly badly, as they started 2004 at 1-5. The one difference was that defense wasn't all that bad.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7 = 118-218)
That -100 point differential is staggering, given that they have won a game comfortably, and lost one game by less than 10 points. It's far worse than Oakland's who is winless. Blake Bortles is sure throwing a lot of interceptions. I still think he looks like he has more going for him than Gabbert ever did, but that is not showing at all in his actual performance.
29.) New York Jets (1-7 = 144-228)
I never expected this. I think this is a case of a fragile team getting pounded early by a really tough schedule. Can you even remember that they were once 1-0, and leading Green Bay big at halftime in Week 2. Since then it has been all downhill. There was close losses early, and apart from the San Diego game they never looked awful. Hell, they came one field goal away from beating New England. Then that happened. Geno Smith is done, and Rex Ryan is probably not fair behind.
28.) Tennessee Titans (2-6 = 137-202)
Zach Mettenberg didn't really show anything one way or the other in that game. He looked poised to a point and didn't look lost on the field. He utilized Justin Hunter more in one game than Whitehurst seemed to in three. There is just no real talent on this team. Given how competitive the middle of the AFC is this year, they might just lose enough games to get a high enough pick to start amending that this offseason.
27.) Atlanta Falcons (2-6 = 192-221)
Once again they are on pace to go 4-12. This team is better than 2-6 (their point differential is far better - though skewed by the 56-14 win). Problem is that their bad areas aren't going to get better anytime soon, like the o-line or the pass rush. They have some intriguing pieces going forward, but I am worried what happens if Mike Smith leaves, and if Matt Ryan can survive and return to being very good after being beaten senseless this year and last.
26.) St. Louis Rams (2-5 = 136-210)
To win a tease I needed them to lose by fewer than 14.5. Leading 7-0 after a few minutes I was feeling good. Down just 10-7 at the half I was feeling good. Then Kniles Davis had to have a kickoff return, and the Rams decided to stop playing down 17-7. I wholly think that Gregg Williams is the wrong coordinator for this team. He is needlessly aggressive.
25.) Washington Redskins (3-5 = 171-200)
Yes, I'm not moving them too far up for one good game on the road against a divisional opponent. That said, what Colt McCoy has done is show uncanny accuracy. He followed up going 11-12 in the 2nd half against Tennessee by going 25-30 for the entire game. That is pretty special... and in no way sustainable. What is also not sustainable is this incredibly heavy blitzing on defense.
24.) Chicago Bears (3-5 = 180-222)
I think Marc Trestman can call an offense, but they seem very unprepared for a lot of games. I was not expecting much at all from them that game, given that they had no answer for a similar but less talented offense in Miami the week earlier. Still, I was expecting a little more than allowing Shea McClellin to go one-on-one with Rob Gronkowski. They fell victim to the Patriots patented 'Holy Hell, who is ever going to beat this team game" (it was Pittsburgh last year, losing 33-51), but they showed no flex at all.
23.) Minnesota Vikings (3-5 = 139-173)
With a winnable game coming up at home and a trip to Chicago after the bye, they can head into a showdown with Green Bay at 5-5. Of course, that scenario involves two 'if's, and they'll likely lose badly to Green Bay, but this Minnesota team is winning with less talent and will likely end this season at 6-10, which didn't look too likely two weeks ago. Bridgewater is a little erratic, but man can he sling it at times. Also, nice to see Anthony Barr finally do something.
22.) New York Giants (3-4 = 154-169)
The Giants head into a Monday Night game without much real hope unless they can go on a long winning streak. With the Lions, Cardinals and Cowboys really coming into their own, there are just less available spots this time around. The Giants are in an interesting period, without some interesting young players, but an aging QB. Handling this situation will really define the next 15 years of Giants football.
21.) Houston Texans (4-4 = 185-166)
Somehow they are 4-4, and actually have a positive point differential. However, that record puts them just 11th in the AFC, looking up at a ridiculously complex Wild Card race. Sure, some teams will take themselves out, and the Texans happen to be in the one division with two bad teams, but the Texans will have to really lean on Arian Foster going forward. Also, they won't be playing Zach Mettenberger each week.
20.) Cleveland Browns (4-3 = 163-152)
That wasn't a dominant win, but an important one. After their 3-2 start, they had a seemingly easy three-game stretch. Then they went out and played like dogshit in the first of those games. A close one here and it would have raised some questions. Instead, they took care of business, the one thing I, and all Browns fans, really wanted to see. There are still holes, but with another easy game to come, they can go to 5-3 after eight games, which would be their best by far since 2007.
19.) Carolina Panthers (3-4-1 = 167-208)
Tough loss for a team that should have been up by far more in the first half. They blew some TD opportunities, and the mistake fumble killed another red zone chance. It was good to see the defense play well for the first time in a while, but for the 2nd straight year they let the Seahawks drive down and win it after holding them back all game. Being in the NFC South they can retake control with a home win this Thursday, but they may still not be long for the division lead.
18.) New Orleans Saints (3-4 = 199-188)
I'll give them credit for having their first dominant offensive game since Week 1 (I say this knowing how bad Brees looked at times against Tampa Bay), their first real dominant performance across the board. The defense played really well in the red zone. Sure, they were pathetic in between the 20s, but as long as they can make a few red zone stops when needed they can be dangerous. Big test coming up given they are once again failing on the road.
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3 = 205-196)
Let's talk for a minute about Ben Roethlisberger's game, shall we? 40-49 is ridiculous. 522 yards is ridiculous. 6 TDs is ridiculous. That was the most incredible display of QB-ing I've seen in one game against a heretofore good defense since maybe Kurt Warner in the 2009 NFC Wild Card game against Green Bay. Sure, the defense still looked average, but if even 85% of that Ben shows up consistently for the rest of the season that could be a very good team.
16.) Buffalo Bills (5-3 = 178-165)
There they sit at 5-3 still with a good defense (very good d-line), and a passing game that has one explosive weapon. The rest of the passing game doesn't scare you, and they'll have to bide time for one of their two good RBs to come back, but the Bills are definitely in this playoff race. They do have a hard schedule coming up, though, with games against Green Bay, Denver and KC still on the schedule, as well as trips to Miami and New England.
15.) San Francisco 49ers (4-3 = 158-165)
The 49ers probably used that bye week to do nothing but see the rest of the NFC come back to them. The Cardinals are still 2 games up in the division (with a h-2-h win), but the #6 seed is just a half game up - tied in the loss column. Unlike most teams, they only stand to get healthier with Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman set to come back in teh next month or so. The one weakness for them is their o-line injuries. Those guys will not be coming back.
14.) Miami Dolphins (4-3 = 174-151)
I will keep saying this up until they probably miss the playoffs because of it, but the Dolphins are still a 4th and 10, or recovering a fumble after a strip-sack, away from 5-2 and being half a game back of the Patriots. They too have a tough schedule left, starting this very week, but they've already played Green Bay (still have Detroit). All they can really hope is that Week 15 trip to Foxboro is meaningful. Nice to see Ryan Tannehill put up two straight pretty good games.
13.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 = 176-128)
They arguably should be higher, given their at times dominance and their recent win over San Diego, but at some point great coaching and scheme only takes you so far. Their defense is back to their sack-happy ways of last year. For their sake hopefully Hali and Houston stay healthy this time around. What Andy Reid has done in crafting that offense is amazing. Yes, he has his issues with time and game management, but that is so far less meaningful than his ability to gameplan and run an offense.
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1 = 161-164)
Big win for the Bengals, capped with a quality late game drive and a gutsy QB sneak on 4th down from the 2. Yes, they got slightly lucky that Steve Smith was called for a slightly iffy OPI on that potential game-winning TD, but the Bengals came back from their second embarrassment in three weeks with a huge win. This also gives them a season-sweep of the Bengals. Of course, given that they have a tie, they will basically never be in a tiebreaker scenario. Something that will be forgotten 1,400 times by the end of the season.
11.) San Diego Chargers (5-3 = 205-149)
I still like this team, but you can start saying that outside of that amazing Seattle win, they've lost against the three best teams they have played (Arizona, KC, Denver). They still get the return leg in KC, and by record the worst (toughest) games are behind them, but they've fallen back towards the rest of the AFC morrass right now.
10.) Green Bay Packers (5-3 = 222-191)
There's no shame in losing to the Saints in primetime in the Superdome; hell there's no shame even in losing to them in the Superdome by 21. What there is shame is being so pitiful in the red zone. Five trips when Rodgers was in the game resulted in one TD, two field goals and a pick (that was a bad throw anyway on 3rd down). Rodgers did seem hampered by that hamstring injury, but he just didn't play well in the 2nd half.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2 = 203-156)
That was a great game, and a really tough loss. All the credit to Palmer and the Cards for hitting the Brown TD to win the game, but that was awful coverage. Then, we got the 2nd time this year that they drove all the way to the red zone needing a TD to win and couldn't get it. They can put of yards with the best of them, but more and more each week the Eagles have a hard time pickign up big chunks on non-gimmick plays. That defense is staying better than expected, back-end mishaps excluded.
8.) New England Patriots (6-2 = 238-177)
The Bears were the perfect fit for the Patriots. They can't cover TEs to save their life, and without most of their secondary they can't cover WRs either. Needless to say the Broncos can do all these things. The Patriots also limited the Bears on defense, but physical corners like Revis and Browns are perfect for receivers of that size. Impressive performance for a team that has really turned it around from that awful start.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (6-2 = 213-167)
Not going to bump them back too much for losing a close game at home to a divisional rival. They weren't going to win every game going forward. It will be more disconcerting if they lose next week to Arizona at home. I hope Romo's back is healthy, and I more seriously hope he's not going back into games when the back acts up or gets hit again. I also more than anything hope Peyton Manning doesn't lose out on the MVP to another back who rushes for 2,000 yards.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (4-3 = 172-150)
That wasn't a good performance, but their defense showed some life in the Red Zone for the first time all season. They'll need that especially as their offense continues to sputter. No one has realized it yet, but Russell Wilson really hasn't improved much since his rookie season. Now, when he started out amazing as a rookie, that isn't a huge issue, but he needs to take another step forward.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (5-3 = 217-131)
The Ravens may kick themselves for losing that game, but they showed great compete on the road against a desperate team. Joe Flacco didn't play great, but he still looks comfortable in that offense. This may not be the case, but this definitely seems like the most balanced and effective the Ravens offense has been in the Flacco era. They will only get better once Monroe and Osemele get back. That defense is still very good, but they do give up a few too many big plays for my liking.
4.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3 = 250-187)
Obviously that defense was terrible. It was also historically good just one week earlier. Their real level is somewhere in the middle. It may just come down to who they are playing. They need to blitz to be effective. That works far less against good veteran QBs. They have two more of them coming up (Manning, Brady). Both have had recent struggles against the blitz, so it will be interesting to see if the Colts continue that agressiveness after being burned so badly against Pittsburgh.
3.) Detroit Lions (6-2 = 162-126)
Yes, they once again didn't really deserve to win, but wins are wins. They've shown good levels of play with Calvin Johnson playing (remember they did destroy Green Bay and the Giants), and he should be back this week. Not only did they tread water without Megatron, they've remained in first place. Knowing that it is the Lions, this can all change, but that defense is not going anywhere. Losing Fairley hurts, but with a dominant Suh and a deep rotation, they can handle that loss.
2.) Arizona Cardinals (6-1 = 164-139)
DVOA doesn't like them, but that's partly because the offense sputtered with backup QBs for multiple weeks, and their offense is predicated on hitting big throws that are low percentage plays. However, they've done those things, and while they won't get some defenders back, with Campbell coming back they have gotten their best remaining player back. It's also nice to see Larry Fitzgerald back and playing well again.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1 = 224-142)
The offense is not on pace to score as much, but Peyton Manning is in many ways playing better in 2014 than 2013. The running game has been much better with Hillman. Ryan Clady is looking better each week. The defense is one of the best in the league, doing great work against a really tough schedule of offenses so far. Von Miller leads the NFL in sacks. DeMarcus Ware is 3rd. Chris Harris has recovered splendidly from his ACL tear. Everything is going well. If this season is going to have a GREAT team, this is it. Of course that is when it can all go wrong...
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-5
5.) Cincinnati Bengals = 10-5-1
6.) San Diego Chargers = 10-6
NFC
1.) Detroit Lions = 12-4
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 12-4
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 11-5
4.) New Orleans Saints = 9-7
5.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-5
6.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Atlanta (2-6); Buffalo (5-3); Chicago (3-5); Detroit (6-2); Green Bay (5-3); Tennessee (2-6)
Very mixed bag of bye teams this week. After four weeks of having just two bye teams, we now get six once again. Unlike in Week 3, it doesn't include most of the best teams (that week had Denver, Arizona, San Diego and Seattle). We have two very good teams, one surprising contender, two epic disappointments, and the least lovable team in the NFL.
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Oakland Raiders (0-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3) (4:25 - CBS)
11.) New York Jets (1-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) St. Louis Rams (2-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "The 5 games that no one will watch because the rest of the week is so good" Sunday, as these five games feature very bad teams going on the road to play good teams. The chances of all five home teams winning is pretty low. I've ordered them in what I would guess would be most likely to lose to most likely to pull a stunning upset. Honestly, I can't see any of them doing it. If the odds are nice, this could be an intriguing, but ultimately really dumb 5-way parlay.
8.) Washington Redskins (3-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) @ Houston Texans (4-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The Winner will be somewhat in it, and the Loser of the other will be somewhat out of it" Sunday, as the first game will have one team somehow be 4-5, and somewhat in the Wild Card race. On the other side, the loser of the Eagles @ Texans tilt is in rough shape. Well, if it is the Eagles, they aren't in too rough of a shape, but the Texans will be behind a whole lot of teams at 4-5.
6.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ New York Giants (3-4) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "What is the better play, a Night Game after a Bye or a game after being Blowed the Fuck Out" Monday, as the Colts go back on the road after being humiliated on defense, and the Giants are off their bye after being humiliated a week ago to the Eagles. The Colts will likely win their division anyway, but just one week ago they were squarely in play for the #2 seed. A loss here and they'll likely be the #3 at best.
5.) New Orleans Saints (3-4) @ Carolina Panthers (3-4-1) (TNF - NFLN)
4.) San Diego Chargers (5-3) @ Miami Dolphins (4-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The First Real Separation Sunday' Thursday and Sunday, as all four teams are in the thick of the playoff race and getting a head-to-head win would be huge. The Saints go to Carolina where the winner will go back to .500 in that lousy division. A win for the Saints here might even wrap things up this early given it will be hard for them to even go worse than 7-1 at home. For the Chargers and Dolphins the winner goes to 6-3, which is nice because that is a pretty record, but also it allows them to avoid picking up a 4th loss and a loss to a potential wild card competitor.
3.) Arizona Cardinals (6-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Shades of 1998" Sunday, as the Cardinals return to the scene of their franchises' first relevant moment in Arizona, when Jake Plummer took the Cardinals to a playoff win in Dallas in 1998. This could be similar. A win here, over a 2nd consecutive top-ranked NFC East team, would really give the Cardinals some national recognition. What would also be amazing is a 7-1 start to the season, allowing them to finish the 1st half with a two-game lead over the NFC West.
2.) Baltimore Ravens (5-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The return of what was the best rivalry in the NFL" Sunday, as the Ravens and Steelers renew the rivalry with both teams right there at 5-3. The Ravens definitely seem ostensibly better, and dominated the hell out of Pittsburgh back in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, but this is a different, 500-yard Ben Roethlisberger, team. It wouldn't be too surprising if Roethlisberger's passing total drops by 50% in this game. Nice to see after two soft years that this amazing rivalry is back.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1) @ New England Patriots (6-2) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "The War of 18-12, Pt. XVI" Sunday, as it happens once again. It will likely happen again next year after these teams win their division again. It could even happen in January, and this game will go a long way in determining where that possible January game would be played. Still, I will follow my tradition of watching a movie during this game. Which movie you ask... how about 'Once Upon a Time in America'.
