32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6 = 81-185)
The Bad News: This team is in perpetual rebuilding, and can't catch a break even when they catch a break and recover an onside kick.
The Good News: Blake Bortles continues to not get
injured, which is probably the best thing that can possibly happen for the rest
of the season for the Jaguars.
31.) Oakland Raiders (0-5 = 79-134)
The Bad News: The Raiders still have to play San Diego
one more time, the Broncos twice, and the entire NFC West, and that makes up
seven of their last 11 games.
The Good News: The Raiders may have found a QB in Derek
Carr, who probably wasn't as good as his 4TD-0INT performance against the
Chargers, but looks calm and has a good arm when he gets time; which isn't
often.
30.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5 = 120-204)
The Bad News: For the 2nd time this season, the Buccaneers fell behind in a game 35-0. They just lost 48-17, and that was by a good 11 points only their second worst performance of the seasons.
The Good News: The Buccaneers at least have their first overall pick, and the 2004 Bears went just 4-12 and lost a ton of games by a whole lot of points as well and were fine long term.
29.) Washington Redskins (1-5 = 132-166)
The Bad News: They are seriously discussing benching Kirk Cousins in favor of Colt McCoy, who hasn't played meaningful minutes since 2011 for the Browns. Kirk Cousins has so quickly turned from the guy who might unseat RGIII to a total turnover machine.
The Good News: For the first time since roughly 2008, the Redskins will have their 1st round pick when they pick in the draft next Spring... also, RGIII might be closer to coming back than people initially expected at this time.
28.) Tennessee Titans (2-4 = 104-153)
The Bad News: The Titans may never really be able to
fully evaluate Jake Locker heading into his free agency next year and probably
have to make a decision that could drastically effect their franchise without
the full set of data.
The Good News: They are still in the AFC South, so
chances are they won't finish last in the division, extending that 'not last in
the AFC South' streak to a full 10 seasons (2005-present).
27.) New York Jets (1-5 = 96-158)
The Bad News: They have to go play a resurgent New England team and try to win in Foxboro in teh regular season for the first time since 2008 to avoid a 1-6 start. And they will have to do that despite continuing to play either Geno Smith or Michael Vick.
The Good News: The Jets have a habit of playing New
England close once a year in the Rex era. They've won one of the games in 2009,
2010 and 2013, and lost close games in 2011 and 2012.
26.) Minnesota Vikings (2-4 = 104-143)
The Bad News Teddy Bridgetwater might get David Carr-ed
behind an o-line that is so pathetic. What has happened to Matt Kalil? What has
happened to everyone in that 2012 Draft Top-10 outside of Luck and Kuehcly?
The Good News: The Vikings still have a good enough
defense to never really get blown out, and maybe their fans will start enjoying
these outdoor games once December comes.
25.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3 = 124-139)
The Bad News: The Steelers are looking like they'll have
their first losing season since 2003 (a shock 6-10 season), and they've now
lost both their AFC North games by 20+. Roethlisberger was 18-1 in his career
against the Browns, and now lost by 21, with the roster just sagging around
him.
The Good News: This season could finally make the
Steelers examine their roster construction and, hard to say this, but coaching
as well. Tomlin looked great when LeBeau's defense was working. Neither is
happening right now.
24.) New York Giants (3-3 = 133-138)
The Bad News: The Giants just lost by 27 on Sunday Night
Football, getting shutout for the first time in the Eli Manning era (apart
from, you know, a playoff game... brilliant playoff QB my ass). To make matters
worse, they lost Victor Cruz for the season right after he was just starting to
play better.
The Good News: The Giants are still alive in teh
division, I guess; as does anyone really trust either the Eagles and Cowboys to
keep up the good starts that they've had. They can start that process next week
by beating the Cowboys in Jerry-World.
23.) St. Louis Rams (1-4
= 101-150)
The Bad News: They have some ridiculous string of
terrible play. You have a string where they were outscored 34-3 against
Minnesota in Wk.1, outscored 27-3 against Dallas, outscored 34-7 against
Philadelphia, and then outscored 31-3 against San Francisco. That’s four
different awful periods of play.
The Good News: The Rams have a period where they
outscored Dallas 21-0, outscored Philadelphia 20-0, and outscored San Francisco
14-0. Those three teams are a combined 14-4. The Rams have nice periods of good
play.
22.) Houston Texans (3-3 = 132-120)
The Bad News: The Texans bloom has gone after losing the
past two games. A week ago, it was the rush defense. This past week it was the
pass defense that allowed TY Hilton to go absolutely nuts all game long. The
Texans have probably peaked already.
The Good News: They employ JJ Watt. Other than having a
great QB, there is no better news than that. I don't understand how anyone can
be that good. The Colts actually did reasonably well on him on 85% of plays. In
the remaining 15%, he nearly won the game for Houston.
21.) New Orleans Saints (2-3 = 132-141)
The Bad News: They are lacking offensive explosion, the
running game is tiring, and Drew Brees has started his 'Fuck It, I'll just lob
the ball up while being sacked' plans rather early this year. Oh yeah, and Jimmy
Graham is out next.
The Good News: No one is running away in the NFC South.
The Panthers have a game-and-a-half lead, but they've looked very up and down.
I can definitely see the Saints sneaking out a 10-6 season, winning their home
Wild Card game by roughly 60 points, and then losing in Arizona,
20.) Buffalo Bills (3-3 = 118-126)
The Bad News: The Bills had a major chance to stake
claim in the AFC East, to get a one game lead over the Pats and send New
England to 0-2 in the division, and then went out and did nothing well. Losing
fumbles, throwing picks, not being able to cover the easiest of players. Just a
terrible effort.
The Good News: The Bills are probably not out of it, and
the guys in the AFC North will probably start beating each other up more soon.
That #6 seed is still possible (as is the division, as I don't think the
Patriots are going 12-4 or better)
19.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4 = 164-170)
The Bad News: The one thing we counted on Atlanta for
was to win home games in that Dome, especially against seemingly average teams.
Well, throw that away. What a pathetic performance from Atlanta, especially
offensively. How can an offense that talented do that little against the Bears
defense.
The Good News: The Falcons are in probably the worst
division in the NFL. Actually, I'll put it in another way. They're in the most
winnable division, and this is the division most likely to have a sub-10-win
leader.
18.) Miami Dolphins (2-3 = 120-124)
The Bad News: The Dolphins could have been half-game
behind the Patriots (with a head-to-head win) but blew that game so badly.
First, they should have recovered that field goal. Secondly, why did they not
throw it on that last 3rd and 6. An incomplete there only gives the Packers an
extra 30 seconds.
The Good News: Ryan Tannehill is looking better and the
Packers are a good a team. They performed well in a loss. Hard loss and a game
that they need, but they stayed competitive in a game that I wasn't expecting.
17.) Cleveland Browns (3-2 = 134-115)
The Bad News: They're in the most competitive division
in the AFC, and their main two rivals (Bengals and Ravens) still have to host
the Browns (they do get Cincinnati one time in Cleveland).
The Good News: Talk about a statement. There is real hope in Browns land right now, and this is without Josh Gordon who should be coming back in a few weeks. It's odd that they've been winning basically with offense, but that could get corrected too.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs
(2-3 = 119-101)
The Good News: The Chiefs are still somewhat like the
team that put down the Patriots two weeks ago. That still happened. The Chiefs
still have two good pass rushers and a bevy of talent on defense and they
combine that with a good offense that is schemed brilliantly.
The Bad News: The Chiefs are in the AFC’s most top-heavy
division and still have to play three more NFC West teams (including the one
actually in first place). Their schedule is rough and that loss to the Titans
might be what keeps them out of the playoffs.
15.) Chicago Bears
(3-3 = 143-144)
The Good News: The Bears defense has a level it can reach
where they are a reasonable facsimile of the Bears defense from 2007-08, and
those defense were good enough to win 10 games when paired with an offense with
a good QB and two very good receivers.
The Bad News: The Bears defense has a level it can reach
where they are a reasonable facsimile of the Bears defense from 2013, and that
defense was bad enough to win just 8 games despite having the 2nd
highest scoring offense in the NFL.
14.) Carolina Panthers
(3-2-1 = 141-157)
The Good News: Cam Newton has taken a leap. He still
takes too many sacks, but his arm is great, he’s playing smarter and safer, and
he’s playing healthy for the first time, as indicated by 100+ yards rushing.
His connection to Kelvin Benjamin could turn great in the upcoming 5 years.
The Bad News: There has to be concern about that
defense. Now, the Bengals did get some short fields, and you take away the 89
yard run by Bernard and the rushing numbers allowed are OK, but the defense
just doesn’t have the pass rush to cover that secondary.
13.) San Francisco
49ers (4-2 =
141-123)
The Good News: When they are on, they are still one of
the most physically imposing teams in the NFL, That defense will squeeze the
life out of you, and the o-line will protect Kaep, and Kaep himself will whip
passes around with ridiculous ease.
The Bad News: The 49ers aren’t always at that level, and
their schedule is still getting harder (Broncos, Chargers, Seahawks x2 still to
come). That is a tough division (hilariously, they are ahead of the Seahawks right
now), and it looks like Bowman may not come back until it is too long out of
the race.
12.) Cincinnati Bengals
(3-1-1 = 134-113)
The Good News: They are still in first place, and Andy
Dalton continues to have a very good season, whether or whether not AJ Green is
on the field. The run game still has a level of explosiveness with Gio Bernard.
The Bad News: Their pass rush has absolutely disappeared
in 2014. I wouldn’t have thought losing Michael Johnson, who was overrated as a
pass rusher, would have done all this. The bigger issue is Geno Atkins not
recovering from his ACL to near 100% yet.
11.) New England Patriots
(4-2 = 160-129)
The Good News: The Patriots are back where they want to
be, 1st place in the AFC East. It didn’t take long, really. The Patriots
did what they’ve done all but two years in Tom Brady’s career – beat the Bills
in Buffalo. And this time they didn’t luck into the win like they did in 2013.
The Bad News: Their defense is still playing below its
talent level, and they won’t have guys wide, wide open each week. Plus, with
Mayo and Ridley going down, this might be the beginning of a string of
injuries; something that happens to the Pats more than other teams, and
something that surprisingly hadn’t at all in their 2-2 start.
10.) Green Bay Packers
(4-2 = 161-130)
The Good News: Aaron Rodgers is a freak. He takes too
many sacks and has become overly conservative in his throws to avoid
interceptions… but my Lord is it working, as shown by his total of one pick
through six games. The defense is playing better than it has since 2010, giving
that team a chance each week.
The Bad News: They still are not in 1st
place, and if the Lions had a kicker, they wouldn’t be all too close. They aren’t
pulling away from teams aside from that ridiculous Chicago game, which is a
problem long term.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles
(5-1 = 183-132)
The Good News: The Eagles, for once, played a great 60
minutes and won a game convincingly. There were no blocked punt TDs, or
defensive TDs, or anything other than solid defense, good running, and Foles
finally getting time. Their offense is well below what it was in 2013, but the
defense is coming around.
The Bad News: There is a legitimate chance they are the
2nd best team in their division, even at 5-1, and they’ve played a
pretty soft schedule so far. They still have to play the two best teams in the NFC
West, and the Cowboys twice – both nicely tucked away at the end of the season.
8.) Indianapolis Colts
(4-2 = 189-136)
The Good News: The Colts looked like the best team in the
NFL for 15 minutes. Combine that with their last three weeks, wins all at home,
and they looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. Sure, the Texans nearly
came back, but the Colts defense continued to do the one thing it looked like
they would never do this year: get pressure.
The Bad News: Pep Hamilton is still tied to his
disparate view of formations (it’s either 3TE or 5-wide!) and the o-line is
still not great. Also, they probably can’t get away with blitzing all the time
against better offenses than Houston (or Baltimore).
7.) Baltimore Ravens
(4-2 = 164-97)
The Good News: The Ravens had an even better 15 minutes
than the Colts did. I’m still not sure how you can go up 35-0 just 18 minutes
into a football game? No one ever had five TDs that early in a game than Joe
Flacco. I’m actually quite disappointed Flacco didn’t have 7 TDs, which would
have put him in the company of Peyton Manning (and Nick Foles).
The Bad News: There really isn’t much bad news. After a
weird season in 2013, the Ravens are back to being a good, but rarely great,
team. They are good enough to blow the eff out of teams, but also not good
enough to avoid looking lost and complacent like they did against Indianapolis.
6.) Seattle Seahawks
(3-2 = 133-113)
The Good News: They still have a great home-field advantage,
and few teams are worse matchups on offense for Seattle than Dallas was. Also,
if they defense a 3rd and 20 (probably a 95% certainty for Seattle)
they likely beat Dallas.
The Bad News: Outside of performances very early in
Russell Wilson’s career, that was the worst performance by the Seahawks in a
game. Sure, they didn’t lose by much, but the scored 17 of their 23 points off
of a blocked punt, a bad snap by Dallas, and a muff that they drove 20 yards
for a TD. They were outgained 2-1. That was just pitiful.
5.) Detroit Lions (4-2
= 116-82)
The Good News: Their defense is absolutely dominant.
Ndamukong Suh hasn’t looked this good since he was a rookie. The preseason
benching of Nick Fairley seemed to have kicked him in the ass. The rotation at
DE has worked really well so far. Darius Slay has improved tremendously in
2014. Just by points allowed, they are playing better than Seattle did a year
ago.
The Bad News: Matthew Stafford is lost without Calvin.
Now, most QBs would be worse without the best receiver, when healthy, in the
NFL, but Matthew seems totally impotent. The run game has also taken a massive
hit without Reggie. Plus… can they find a fucking kicker!
4.) Dallas Cowboys
(5-1 = 165-126)
The Good News: That was probably the most impressive
performance by any team all year. They went into Seattle and physically abused
the team that prides itself on physicality. They were looking for a signature
performance in their 4-1 start, and they got it. Romo looks great. The run game
looks great. Bryant looks great. And the defense looks above average. Add that
up and this is a very good team.
The Bad News: I really have only two complaints. First,
they have to reduce the workload on DeMarco Murray. He is not going to survive
his current pace for 420 carries. Second, this is the Cowboys in the Romo era.
Weird stuff happens.
3.) San Diego Chargers
(5-1 = 164-91)
The Good News: The Chargers showed some mental toughness
winning a close game after four relative blowouts. They had issues on defense,
but Rivers continues to play at a level of efficiency rarely seen. The ‘other’
receivers are playing really well, and they just found a Darren Sproles
replacement for their Darren Sproles replacement (Woodhead) in Olver.
The Bad News: That defense thing I mentioned. For the
first time, we saw the Chargers defense from 2013. Now, maybe that was a one
week thing, but against a bad offense they looked awful. They haven’t really
played anyone good recently, which changes quickly going forward.
2.) Arizona Cardinals
(4-1 = 116-106)
The Good News: Yes, they’ve lost a ton of players on
defense, but their best player will come back at some point (Campbell), and
Palmer is back. That offense looks so
much better with him at the helm than it did with Stanton (and definitely Thomas).
The Bad News: They haven’t faced a great offense since
they were at their healthiest (San Diego – a really impressive defensive
performance in retrospect). Actually, they did. They played Denver, and their
defense was lost. If they can avoid a terrible matchup, the defense continues
to be fine, despite the personnel losses.
1.) Denver Broncos
(4-1 = 147-104)
The Good News: The Broncos defense might be the 2nd
best in the NFL. The common complaint will be that they haven’t played anyone,
but that isn’t totally true. In retrospect, their performance against both
Indianapolis and Kansas City seem better, and they were great against both
Arizona and New York. That defense will start getting tested more, but they
look like the unit from 2012, not 2013.
The Bad News: The o-line isn’t right. Chris Clark isn’t
great inside, and I don’t think Clady is fully healthy yet. Worse, Louis
Vasquez isn’t playing like the guy from 2013 either. There’s really little else
to criticize right now, unless you want to criticize them coming somewhat close
to getting tied by New York.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4.) New England Patriots (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (12-4)
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
NFC
1.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
4.) Carolina Panthers (9-6-1)
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
4.) New England Patriots (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (12-4)
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
NFC
1.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (12-4)
3.) Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
4.) Carolina Panthers (9-6-1)
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Philadelphia Eagles (5-1); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)
Losing the Eagles for a week is sad, but losing the Bucs, who would have probably lost by about 40 once again, is more than OK. By the way, after having six teams on the Bye in Week 4, what is with the two-team byes the last three weeks.
15.) Arizona Cardinals (4-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-5)
(4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Least Exciting Return for a Starting QB Ever" Sunday, as Carson Palmer returns to his old stomping grounds that he inhabited for 1.5 seasons. The Cardinals defense also goes to play an offense that looked pretty darn good last week. Still, can't imagine the Raiders put up much of a fight in this one.
14.) Tennessee Titans (2-4) @ Washington Redskins (1-5) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Minnesota Vikings (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3)
(1:00 - FOX)
12.) Cleveland Browns (3-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Tis All Bad" Sunday, as we get three games that put together some pretty boring teams. The Bills have some fiestiness in them, and the Browns are exciting, but the sad state of the teams they are playing make those games seem even worse. Also, let's not freak out, but the Browns could be 4-2 after this week.
11.) Houston Texans (3-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "How Much did ESPN Pay for the MNF Package Again?" Monday, as really? This is the best ESPN could get for an October game that will likely go up against no baseball? Anyway, because it is Pittsburgh and because it is MNF, people will watch, but this game is a not all that great.
10.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) New York Jets (1-5) @ New England Patriots (4-2)
(TNF - CBS)
I call it "A Middling Reminder of what TNF was and a Sad Reminder of what it has Become" Sunday and Thursday. The Jets and Patriots play on TNF. The last four times the Jets have played New England in a night game they've lost. Last time (a TNF game in New England last year) was close, but the three before that were 49-17, 37-16 and 45-3. The other game was once a TNF game four years ago. It's my go-to anytime someone says all TNF games suck. That game matched a 9-2 Falcons team and a 9-2 Ravens team, with the Falcons winning in Atlanta 26-21. We can only hope one of these two games is as good.
8.) Seattle Seahawks (3-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-4) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) New York Giants (3-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Sometime division games are close, right?" Sunday, as I have a sneaky feeling one of these two games will be good. If there is any game for the historically sack-needy Rams to break out, it would be that one. If there is any game for the Cowboys to lose in this great start, it is this game, as Romo is 1-4 lifetime in the Jerry Dome against the Giants.
6.) Miami Dolphins (2-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) New Orleans Saints (2-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-2)
(1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Does Needing It beat Wanting It?" Sunday, as both road teams are in dire straights. The Saints barely avoided going 1-4 and haven't looked good really at any point this year. The Dolphins should have beaten Green Bay but didn't and now are behind in the division. The Home Teams here are riding high. The Bears had a complete performance, and the Lions were dominant on defense all year long. Should be a fun game.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (5-1) (4:05 - CBS)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2) @ Denver Broncos (4-1)
(SNF - NBC)
I call it "The West Comes Alive!" Sunday, as the Chiefs go to San Diego off their bye to try to get back in teh AFC West race (and cool off the hottest team in the sport) during the evening, and the 49ers try to go to Denver and stop Peyton Manning, who's never lost to the 49ers. We've had a lot of terrible primetime games in this season. This could be a rare good one.
2.) Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) @ Green Bay Packers (4-2) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Movement Sunday" as we get two games featuring teams above .500 in their conference. They are all either in teh division lead or tied for it. the Panthers might solve their pass rush problems, or Rodgers will light up that secondary. Julius Peppers plays his old team. Lot's of storylines there. In the other, the winner has the (very early) inside track to the #2 seed (or, I guess, #1). The Colts get a chance to continue their win streak and beat a really good team at home. Good prep for the Colts as after this they really only have two tough games left (vs. NE, @ DAL).
