Two Divisions at a time, I'll break down the state of the teams heading into the 2010 season, make my predictions, and all that. However, before I can do any of that, I have to start with a brief look at my predictions of the league as a whole. Here it is, the official 2010 NFL Season Predictions:
(of course, these W-L Record predictions are not solely based on my Power Rankings, as I did take into account schedule, and trends - such as having six new playoff teams, and one ten-loss team from 2009 make the playoffs)
AFC
AFC East
1.) New York Jets - 10-6 (3 Seed)
I think at some point Revis comes back, but either way, through that mountain of hype lies a good, solid football team. Sanchez cannot be as bad as he was a year ago, can he? They win the division, but only improve by one game.
2.) Miami Dolphins - 9-7
Solid team that is stuck between two minds. They were the team that gave us the wildcat, but with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and the maturation of Chad Henne, the wildcat might be a thing of the past. Karlos Dansby's addition to that defense will be huge.
3.) New England Patriots - 7-9
I can't go against one of my mid-offseason prediction of the Patriots not making the playoffs. Their preseason defensive performance against the Rams sold it to me again. The defense is just not up to par, especially concerning given their schedule.
4.) Buffalo Bills - 2-14
They are just bad, really, really bad. Good thing is that the prize for being this bad (yeah, I've predicted them having the worst record in the NFL) is the opportunity to draft Jake Locker. His big arm will be able to do what Trent Edwards' noodle cannot, throw in weather.
AFC North
1.) Cincinnati Bengals - 12-4 (2 Seed)
Defense? It is better, with the return of Antwan Odom, the health of the LBs and the additions of Geno Atkins and Gibril Wilson. The offense? It is better, with the maturation of Bernard Scott and the addition of Terrell Owens. They are good.
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers - 11-5 (5 Seed)
I think that the suspension will get reduced to four games, so given a 2-2 start, the Steeelers have the talent to finish out 9-3. The defense is fully healthy, with Aaron Smith and Polamalu back in the fold, and Mendenhall is set to explode.
3.) Baltimore Ravens - 10-6
It is a shame that a 10-win team cannot make the playoffs, but that is just the way it is. They, much like the Jets, are a bunch of hype. I don't like Joe Flacco's development against quality opposition, and the secondary is an absolute mess
4.) Cleveland Browns - 5-11
They might be better than they were a year ago, but not win any more games. The hard part about making these is having the W-L records work out correctly. Some teams have to lose more than they deserve. Cleveland is a team that has some friskiness but is a year or two away.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts - 14-2 (1 Seed)
Loaded everywhere, including at defense. If injuries don't kill them, they have the most talented team in the AFC. If injuries do kill them? Well, they have Manning and will win 12 games anyway and threaten for the #1 seed just like in 2009.
2.) Houston Texans - 11-5 (6 Seed)
It is finally their time.... to make the playoffs. Their offense alone can win 8 games, and their defense, plus a kicker that won't miss 10 field goals, will allow them to win those extra three games that they need to get the last playoff spot in the AFC.
3.) Tennessee Titans - 9-7
Good team, fun team, but just not there yet. I do like how Vince Young is developing, as is their defense, and they will be really good in a year or two, but in what is one of the league's toughest divisions, it is not enough.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-12
They have finally bottomed out. David Garrard just hasn't improved since his 2007 heyday, which is a problem when all the other players on their team have either left or diminished. Because of MJD, they'll stay relevant fantasy wise.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders - 9-7 (4 Seed)
Yes, yes, here is that 10 loss team that will make the playoffs. The karma around them is great. Ten years ago, after not making the playoffs for five straight years, the Raiders went 12-4. This isn't then, since Jason Campbell is not Rich Gannon, but they can win nine games.
2.) San Diego Chargers - 8-8
And nine games will be enough since the Chargers have the total opposite karma. Phil Rivers, not the most mobile, evasive guy, is missing his LT and his top weapon. Their defense is not the same as it was in 2006-2008, and they cannot get pressure on the QB.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs - 4-12
The Chiefs don't have much talent. In fact, they have less talent than almost every team in the league, but they do have the coordinators to still sneak out four games. Matt Cassel is on a rather fiery seat right now, and not having Dwayne Bowe for a while won't help.
4.) Denver Broncos - 3-13
They stink. A league average QB is fine, when the rest of the team has talent. But Orton is missing his best WR, TE and has injuries across the o-line. The defense was already below average, and that was before Dumervil's injury.
NFC
NFC East
1.) New York Giants - 13-3 (1 Seed)
I still believe in Lil' Manning. Their team takes after the Colts, in that every game is just a business trip. Their defense seems reinvigorated with Perry Fewell calling plays. With Aaron Ross and Kenny Phillips healthy, the defense has the playmakers they missed last season.
2.) Washington Redskins - 9-7
The McNabb injury seems a little sketchy to be that serious, and assuming it is not, they have talent. Their defense has been quite good for a couple years now, and the offense should be rejuvenated under McNabb's guidance.
3.) Dallas Cowboys - 7-9
The perfect storm seems to have lasted just one year. They have looked awful in preseason, and their o-line is just not good enough to allow Romo enough time. That leads to Romo improvising, which leads to major problems.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles - 5-11
Kolb will struggle. He might be good in the future, but for a year he will go through the lumps. Their defense was also quietly a mess at the end of the season last year. Jim Johnson's sudden death hasn't exactly helped that, and Sean McDermott had a really tough time replacating him.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers - 12-4 (2 Seed)
The offense seems great, as they have tons of weapons for Aaron Rodgers, and Ryan Grant has quietly become one of the most stable fantasy options in the league, however that defense has seemed to take a step backward late in 2009.
2.) Chicago Bears - 10-6 (6 Seed)
I just have a weirdly good feeling about the Martz/Cutler duo. I know that their o-line has been just awful so far in the preseason, but that is the preseason. Also, that defense has a chance to be really good. With Julius Peppers and a healthy Tommie Harris, really good.
3.) Minnesota Vikings - 8-8
Sidney Rice's injury really, really hurts. Brett Favre just cannot have that good of a year once again, plus the o-line is far from what it once was. Their defense is still awaiting the return of key guys, like Cedric Griffin and EJ Henderson.
4.) Detroit Lions - 5-11
This is actually a major step up. Their defense has enough players to actually keep teams below 30 once in a while, and that offense can be good enough to score in the 20s. Calvin Johnson is healthy, and ready to dominate again.
NFC South
1.) New Orleans Saints - 11-5 (3 Seed)
The defending champs are still the best team in their division, mainly because they have an incredible passing offense and their chief competitors just do not have the pass rush to get close. The Panthers at least have the secondary, but that won't be enough.
2.) Atlanta Falcons - 10-6 (5 Seed)
They are primed to be the Colts of the 2010s, and that run might start this year. Coming off their first back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history, they can start a run here. They are probably one year away from usurping the Saints, but they are closing in.
3.) Carolina Panthers - 9-7
I've cooled on this team a little bit, but I still feel that they can grab a wild card spot. They're schedule is really tough, especially since they have to travel to Pittsburgh, while Atlanta and New Orleans don't. Their running game is still the best in the league.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3-13
They are improved from 2009, no doubt about it, but I still don't think Josh Freeman is the answer. Their receiving corp is a mess, and none of their running backs can stay healthy. Mark Domenik has been able to build a nice little defense, though.
NFC West
1.) San Francisco 49ers - 10-6 (4 Seed)
Someone has to win this division. The 49ers are in flux because of their coach. The defense has taken the image of Mike Singletary, and coach wants the offense to do the same, but Alex Smith needs to stay in the shotgun. That might doom a team that should be better than 1o-6.
2.) Arizona Cardinals - 7-9
Whether it finally be Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart (it is looking increasingly like Derek Anderson), this team needs a new QB for 2011. Their schedule outside the division is very tough. This will be a year of rebuilding, but the building will be beautiful.
3.) Seattle Seahawks - 4-12
Their QB situation is dicey, with Hasselbeck being an injury waiting to happen, but their defense does have their bright spots, but that bright spot is negated by their injury-prone-ness. The Seahawks had their five year run, but it seems it is back to irrelevancy.
4.) St. Louis Rams - 4-12
They are slowly getting better, but are still just in need of simple talent. Sam Bradford does look like the real deal, but Donnie Avery's injury will hurt his comfort level. I want to trust that Steve Spagnuolo can build that defense but the pieces aren't there.
Wild Card Round:
ATL (5) 24 @ SF (4) 17
This should be an even matchup, and I give the edge to the Falcons becuase of their experience. They have been there before, and Matt Ryan played well in that playoff game. They have the better team, and their weaknesses cannot be exposed by the 49ers, since the 49ers don't really throw deep.
HOU (6) 27 @ NYJ (3) 17
The Texans have enough weapons on offense to still put up points on the Jets defense, but what really gives the Texans the edge is the Houston defense. The Texans defense has the versatile pass rush to bother the Jets o-line, and their run defense is quite good. Their pass defense isn't great, but against the Jets that is not a huge problem.
CHI (6) 31 @ NO (3) 37
This can be the Cardinals-Packers of the 2009 playoffs, but since the Bears do play Tampa-2, the scoring probably won't be just as high. Both offenses are (in the case of the Bears) should be dynamic, and I can see Cutler putting up a hearty effort trying to match Drew Brees pass for pass.
PIT (5) 26 @ OAK (4) 14
The Steelers are just a better team. If they do enter the playoffs, they will most likely be really hot, and the Raiders don't have the offensive ability to score enough points on that Steelers defense. The Steelers will probably be able to shut down the Raider offense enough to tire the Raider defense.
Divisional Round
ATL (5) 21 @ NYG (1) 27
The Giants are not built to beat a team like the Falcons easily. The Falcons o-line will be able to slow down the Giants pass rush, and they will be able to defend the Giants, since the Giants struggled against zone-coverage teams. All that said, the Giants are the better team, at home, and Eli will want to win a playoff game for the first time in three years.
HOU (6) 24 @ IND (1) 38
Except for 2006, the Colts usually play the Texans better the second time around, so with that knowledge, the third time around should be even better. The Colts should be able to just dissect the Texans defense like usual, and with the rest, the defense should be fired up to limit the Texans scoring enough.
PIT (5) 14 @ CIN (2) 17
In what would be a dream matchup for all Defensive Football Enthusiasts, like myself, these two teams, as shown by each of their two meetings last year, are really, really close to each other. They play each other well. The Bengals get a slight nod being at home, and the Steelers might just be running on fumes this late into a long, crazy season.
NO (3) 28 @ GB (2) 38
Another shootout should end with the Packers on top. The Packers do have the defense to at least get consistent, varied pressure on the Saints, and the Saints don't have the defense to do the same to the Packers. Aaron Rodgers will probably want to do right by the Pack Faithful in his first home playoff game.
Championship Sunday
GB (2) 23 @ NYG (1) 21
In a rematch of the 2007 NFC Title Game, but this time in the Meadowlands, I guarantee it will bot be -23 degrees like that fateful night. Just like that game, the road team squeaks out one. It is really hard to predict why this game will turn out the way it will, but I just like the road team to win a conference title game, as in each of the last two year, the home teams swept.
CIN (2) 13 @ IND (1) 23
This will probably be the smallest combined markets of any title game in recent memory (probably since Jacksonville-Tennessee in '99), but should be a great game. The Bengals have the defense to take out Reggie Wayne and the Colts #2 receiver out of the game, forcing Peyton to rely on Dallas and the slot guy. Good thing for the Colts is that Peyton has won those type of games before. In what should be a tense affair, the Colts defense is the better one on this day.
Super Bowl XLV
GB (1) 17 vs IND (1) 34
In a rematch of a nightmare preseason game for Indianapolis, the Colts avenge their Super Bowl XLIV loss by winning the Super Bowl one year later. No team has won the Super Bowl the year after losing it since the '73 Dolphins, but the Colts are the perfect team to do so. They have handled devastating losses better than anyone. The last time they lost a playoff game as a number one seed they followed it up the next year with winning the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Champions: Indianapolis Colts (17-2)
Notes:
New Playoff Teams (OAK, PIT, HOU, NYG, SF, CHI, ATL)
Teams That Don't Return (SD, NE, BAL, MIN, DAL, ARZ, PHI)
10 Loss Team to Make the Playoffs (OAK: 5-11 in 2009)
