A - America's Game
No, this is not an allusion to how the NFL defines America, but rather a direct reference to the best show on TV. America's Game was first shown before Super Bowl XLI, and it counted down the 20 best Super Bowl teams of all time. They then released the shows for the 20 other Super Bowl Champions, and since, it has been the real beginning of the NFL season, as the new America's Game for the previous years champion comes out. This year, on the day before opening night, the Saints magical 2009 season will be profiled. Of course, I will watch it, and yes, it will probably be the first time I subject myself to the Tracy Porter pick-6 since the Super Bowl. I have avoided all references and highlights of that play, but as the final step of a cleansing process, watching the play is a true signal to put it behind me and look forward to 2010.
(No, the next 25 letters aren't me-centric stories)
B - Baltimore Ravens and their Boldin
The hype machine for the Ravens is perfect. They have a great defense (supposedly) a star-in-the-making QB (supposedly) and finally a legitimate receiver (truly), so of course, they should be the media's darling pick to go to the Super Bowl. Of course, that defense is injured in the secondary (not to mention that apart from Ed Reed, those injured players aren't that great anyway), plus their QB has never completed over 50% of his passes in any of his 5 career playoff games, and their receiver is injury prone, plus is essentially a 5-year-younger version of Derrick Mason. They are good, but have a tendency to play to the media, blowing out bad teams and struggling against good ones. The media loves those teams because aesthetically their good performances overshadow their flaws. Either way, Baltimore seems to be a complete team now with Boldin aboard, but I still have my doubts.
C - Coaches Under Pressure
I can't remember the last time there were this many established coaches who are truly coaching for their jobs. John Fox and Lovie Smith are both essentially in contract years. John Fox definitely knows that he will be snapped up if the Panthers let him go, but still there is pressure on the guy. Of course, the eternal Wade Phillips and Brad Childress watches will be on (especially Childress, who if it were up to Favre would have been fired as part of Favre's contract). Of course, the free-agent coaches that are in line for jobs are numerous as well. It needs to be seen if Bill Cowher still wants to coach, especially after the tragic death of his wife. Jon Gruden still wants to coach, but he seems to truly love his job at ESPN (and I love watching and listening to him - it makes me remember a time when the Raiders were good) so it will take a handsome amount of green to persuade him to leave the WorldWide Leader. Of course Brian Billick is still out there. Either way, here's a never-talked about coordinator that is my sleeper future head coach: Mike Mularkey. Currently, he's the Falcons Offensive coordinator, where he developed Matt Ryan. He was the HC of the Bills in 2004-2005, and actually led them to a 9-7 record in 2004 (which for the Bills is like going 13-3) before having a fall-out with Marv Levy. He's going to be a head coach again.
D - Defense Comes Back
2009 was the year of the offense (although it should be noted that across the league, fewer points were scored than in 2008), but defenses are set to make a comeback. The first reason is with the new rule that umpires have to spot the ball than backpedal behind the QB will slow the game down and stop offenses from using the umpire as a pick. And then of course, everything is cyclical. Referees called pass interference fewer times in 2009 than they did since 2003, showing that they are becoming more forgiving. There are many teams built to play great defensively (Bengals, Steelers, Jets, Colts, Redskins, 49ers, Packers). Teams are getting smarter at building defenses. We could have a repeat of 2008, where although scoring was up league-wide, the best teams that year were great defensive teams.
E - Eastern Hype
Almost every year, the two Eastern divisions are considered the best in football (especially the NFC East), and this has never been more apparent than this year. People are orgasming at the sight of the NFC East. Sure, the storylines in the NFC East are legitimately good (McNabb as the headline), and the AFC East might actually be a competitive race for once, but the NFC South, AFC South and AFC North can all make claims to be the best division, or at least a division with better top teams than the NFC and AFC East. It isn't purely East Coast bias, but just because the NFC East teams are big draws doesn't make them immediately all that good. If you remember, the only Eastern division team in the title game last year was the Jets.
F - Favre (How Could I Not Mention Him in this Column)
It isn't the huge storyline it was last year, since that was year one in Minnesota, but he's still a large figure in the league. His return makes the NFC North a much more interesting division (in fact, put them in that list that has teams that easily could be better than the easts), and makes the Green Bay vs Minnesota games that much more interesting. Of course, there is his everlasting "alleged" feud with Chilly-dress, now it being that Favre thinks Brad is a football retard (which could very well be true). The sad part for Favre is that a year with 3,800 yards, 26 tds, and 13 ints would be a very good year, but a substantial step down from last year's dream season, and now without Sidney Rice for half a season, it becomes that much harder. He will be one to watch, like always.
G - Great Expectations
Yeah, this means the Jets. In reality, they have Super expectations, with or without Darrelle Revis. The Jets, spirited by the ever-flowing fat that is Rex Ryan truly believe that they are Super Bowl bound, this despite them getting severely outclassed in the AFC Title Game last season and needing the Colts and the Bengals to lay down in Weeks 16-17 just to get them in the playoffs. What is more amazing is that people, and by people I mean legitimate football writers, are buying what Rexy is selling. Just like Grossman and Van De Kamp, I would never trust anyone named "Rex" as they seem to all die fiery deaths (for Grossman, it is fortunately just his football career that died). The Jets, if they win their division with an 11-5 record and lose in the divisional round after beating some Wild Card team, will be a disappointment, when that would really be a step up.
H - Houston's Arrival
Houston will finally be a playoff team. You need to learn to be a playoff team, and usually, the teams that take a while to learn how are the teams that stay for an extended period of time (hello, Colts!). The Packers went 9-7, 9-7, 9-7 from 1992-1994. Their next four years: 11-5, 13-3, 13-3, 11-5 with two trips to the Super Bowl. For an even closer example, the Titans went 8-8, 8-8, 8-8 from 1996-1998 (never making the playoffs in that span), and then followed that up with a 13-3, 13-3, 6-10, 11-5, 12-4 in the next five years. Houston is built to take over from the Colts eventually. They have fast, young talent on defense, and that offense could easily be the best in the league. They will be playoff bound, plus they will be really fun to watch.
I - Injuries
Injuries are the one thing that can level all teams. Is there a way the Jaguars finish 2010 with a better record than the Colts? Yes, there is, if a certain Manning gets himself hurt. That is why, outside of positions like QB, depth is the most important factor of any NFL team. Depth is what made the Patriots from 2001-2004 great. They didn't have the best starters, but they had the deepest team, so they were able to easily recover from injuries, while other teams could not. Injuries will happen, and God as a Colts fan I know this is true, but it is those teams that can not only avoid them, but also back them up when they do inevitably happen that will. Just hope that the Super Bowl isn't decided because of an injury (it was last year, his name rhymes with "Meanie").
J - Johnson's
No, this is not a short on the new fad of posting pictures of your exposed Johnson on the internet that is ravishing through the NFL like steroids in baseball. No, this is about two kids in the AFC South named Johnson that are the most dynamic and fun to watch offensive players in the NFL. Watching Andre Johnson demolish teams is the closest things to watching Jerry Rice in his prime. Just watching him in the preseason game make Orlando Scandrick and Terrence Newman look like Pop Warner CBs was amazing to watch. Chris Johnson might get more notoriety, and largely because his 2,000 yards cannot just be overshadowed, but each one is the best at their position, and could be the difference in getting a wild card berth. They are the players that often keep the Texans and Titans (two the of the NFL's more nameless teams) relevant when their teams are out of the playoff hunt. Now that both could be in the playoff hunt, it is only more fun. Another reason I would want to see the Texans in the playoffs is to get the chance to see Andre Johnson in the spotlight.
K - (the) Kurt Warner Effect
With Kurt Warner gone, we can finally see if Matt Leinart is more than a pretty Cali kid, and we can see if the Cardinals truly are a well-run franchise that has talent besides its all-world QB. The answers to those two questions are no, and a resounding yes. With Warner leaving, much of the shine and the likability of the Cardinals is gone (especially that likability part, with Leinart having all the likability of a forest fire), but it allows the world to see that the Cardinals have a solid foundation of talent that made it easy for Warner to have a career rennaisance in the desert and will possibly carry Matt Leinart to an 8-8 season. The Desert is not dry, and Matt Leinart certainly isn't either (although that might be the Tequila).
L - Locker, Jake
He's the prize for the Bills, Bucs, Broncos and Jaguars of the world. He's the almost consensus top QB in the 2011 draft, and is a prototypical QB, much mike Matthew Stafford from 2009. He's bg, with a rocket arm. He's a top decision maker, throwing very few interceptions in an offense that relies on him, and he's a winner, helping resurrect a dormant Washington program to respectability. Jake Locker should be the #1 pick in the 2011 draft, and he will be quite a consolation prize for that sad 2-14 team that is bestowed the honor of picking the kid. I haven't been this excited about a QB coming out of college since Carson Palmer. He's good, real good.
M - Mike Shanahan
The biggest coaching story of the year is easily Shanny. Back after a one-year hiatus, he is finally trying to be the one coach to conquer Mt. Snyder. Shanny failed at scaling Mt. Davis in Oakland, so it remains to be seen if he can work with a meddlesome owner (I don't believe Snyder when he says he is going to stay hands-off), as Pat Bowlen in Denver was about as anti-meddling as you can get. Shanahan has already gotten a 'C' on his first assignment, with his pitiful performance in the Haynesworth fiasco, but his players seem to like him, and he has the ability to reinvigorate the running game and Donovan McNabb. Shanahan now makes the list of Super Bowl winning head coaches that are active 25% bigger as well. He commands respect, as any two-time winning Super Bowl coach should, but the owner and some of the players aren't quick to give him that respect, and it he goes 5-11 and turns into Spurrier-lite, than he might just have a shorter leash than one with a 4 year, 32 million dollar coaching deal would think to have.
N - New Faces
Partly because of the looming lockout, the 2010 offseason was very eventful, and it might not be done yet. Already Donovan McNabb, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jason Taylor, Jason Campbell and Karlos Dansby have all changed teams in high profile moves. The NFL seemed to have more high-profile free agents than ever, and that list might not be complete. Vincent Jackson seems to be on the market, and LT Marcus McNeill might not be far behind (because no one messes with the A.J. Smith). Darrelle Revis could be on the block. Even lower-tier FAs changed teams at a dizzying pace with TO joining Chad, Keith Bullock switching shades of blue and Antrel Rolle joining Keith in Gotham. Needless to say that every team has a new, shiny FA or draftee or tradee to show off come Week 1, and these new players, especially the higher-profile guys like Boldin, Marshall and McNabb are being counted on to bring the wood and change their teams into winners.
O - Old Guard's Last Stand
Since 2004, the AFC has been dominated by the Steelers, Chargers, Patriots and Colts. They have combined for 18 of the past 24 divisional titles, and have all made the playoffs a combined 20 times in the past 6 seasons, but the days of those four ruling the AFC might be over. Surely, they are all teams in the upper-half of the league, but aside from the Colts they all have question marks as to their long-term lasting power, and that aside they all are different than their roles in the 2000's would suggest. The Chargers, with the demise of the Sha(w)(u)n(e)s and the (possible) holdout of Vincent Jackson are nowhere near the team that was consistently being hailed as the most talented in the NFL, and a lot of that has to do with LaDainian suiting up for another team. The Steelers pounding run game that led them to a 15-1 record in 2004, a Super Bowl title in 2005 and a playoff berth in 2007 are also gone. Despite being only 28, Roethlisberger also seems to be last decade's news. Then there is the Patriots, who will not start a single player in 2010 on defense that was around for Super Bowl XLII. The Pats have also changed identities, becoming the Colts of the early 2000s, with a high-flying offense and a suceptible defense. The AFC has new teams, and the old guard will have to adjust or become the 49ers and Cowboys ten years later.
P - Prediction Predicament
All across the country, in magazines and on the small screen, football "analysts" (read: writers and ex-players) will start the yearly tradition of making predictions, most of which will feature a certain puzzling trend: picking playoff teams to return. Historically, the NFL turns over half its playoff teams on a year-to-year basis. At least 5 teams have made the playoffs after missing it the year before every year since 1997. Last year, it was the Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Cowboys, Packers and Saints crashing the party. In 2008, it was the Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals and Falcons doing the trick. I honestly had an epilepsy when I saw Phil Simms' AFC playoff predictions, where he predicted the exact same six teams to make the AFC playoffs that did last year (to his credit, he changed one division winner, you know, to make it seem like he did actual work). I'm almost sure Peter King will do the same thing in this Weeks SI NFL Preview, pick an overwhelming amount of teams to repeat in the playoffs. Take this into consideration when you make your predictions.
Q - Quarterbacks Gone Wild! Can it Happen Again?
A crazy 10 QBs threw for 4,000 yards in 2009. That will not, absolutely not, happen again. That is an outlier, a crazy fluke. However, is this trend something to believe in? Surely, the amount of 4,000 yard QBs will be up, but in 2006-2008 the average was 6.66, which is a far more palatable amount than 10. Guys like Rivers, Romo and Favre are QBs who aren't definites to crack 4,000 again, and surely Eli is the leader of the group likely not to see 4,000. Even Roethlisberger isn't likely to do it again, but is 4,000 just an easier number to obtain (this will be irrelevant when Roger Goodell continues his streak of approving things the fans hate and makes the season 18 games long). Peyton Manning's record of 10 seasons of 4,000 yards won't mean much when 12 QBs are getting it every year. No yardage records will mean anything then. If the NFL truly is cyclical, teams will learn that running the ball still is really important. Cold Hard Football Facts usually is wrong on just about everything, but they did a really nice expose that showed that scoring was at an all-time high when the league threw to ball only 41.7% of the time. Now, that ratio is about reversed, and scoring has gone down. The key to actually scoring TDs may be that reliable 26 HB smash.
R - Ryan, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers, Roethlisberger
The R's are set to rule the next 10 years in the NFL (don't sleep on the BMB - Brady, Manning, Brees too), and are in that group that are the next generation of QBs. In about 5, 6 years, Brady and Manning will have left the spotlight, and these guys have to step up and keep the NFL a star-studded league. Right now, the biggest problem is that they all have flaws. Romo and Rodgers have questions about their clutchness, as both seem to struggle in close games. Rivers seems to have it all, but he seems to be kind of a jack-ass. Roethlisberger has it all (plus Ringzz), but he IS a jack-ass. That leaves the youngest member of the group: Matt Ryan. After being fellated at a Favre-ian level during and after his rookie year, Ryan took a step back in his sophomore year, falling behind Joe Flacco as the "best QB in the 2008 QB Class." Of course, people did not realize that Mr. Matthew Ryan had the better W-L record (9-6 vs. 9-7). Joe Flacco really struggles against quality opposition, and Matt Ryan's one playoff game was vastly better than any of Joe Flacco's. In fact, Matt Ryan is my pick for the best QB of the 2010's (him and Stafford).
S - Shotgun
The Pats used shotgun on 62.2% of their snaps in 2010. The highest percentage in the 2000 NFL season was 52.1% (Rams). The shotgun has become the base formation in the NFL, which has also helped make the NFL a passing league, through and through. Teams are drafting QBs who only use the shotgun in college to primarily play the shotgun in the pros, and defenders are being taught more and more to play the shotgun. Somewhere, this has to stop, but for now in the 2010 Season, the shotgun will be as prevalent as ever. The most telling sign of this total formation change is that running out of the shotgun is now at an all-time high as well.
T - Ten-Loss Turnaround
What do the 2009 Bengals, 2008 Dolphins (Ravens, Falcons), 2007 Redskins (Buccaneers), 2006 Eagles (Saints, Jets, Ravens), 2005 Redskins (Giants, Bears, Buccaneers) all have in common? They made the playoffs after losing at least ten games the previous season. The list even extends 8 years before that. The NFL is the king of the quick turnaround, and 2010 should be no different. A ten+ loss team from 2009 will make the playoffs in 2010. The candidates are bleak, obviously, with the Rams, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Chiefs, Raiders, Browns and Bills being the possibilities. To me, the Seahawks, Redskins or Raiders will make the leap. They are all in winnable divisions (especially the Seahawks). The Redskins and Raiders both have new QBs who make their teams instantly substantially better than their forms in 2009. I will pick one of those three teams to make the playoffs. I might not pick the right one, but one definitely will.
U - Underrated-ness
Being underrated is the lifeline of the entire NFL. NFL Teams and coaches love to spew out how "No one believed in us", but what is more underrated isn't this false modesty, but teams that are truly underrated, and that leads us to the: COLTS. I have read five different NFL Preview Annual magazines, and in those contained 14 different predictions for the Super Bowl. A total of two (one in Lindy's and the other Athlon Sports) pegged the Colts as the AFC Champion. Two of them. The other twelve had 7 Ravens predictions, 3 Jets, 1 Chargers and 1 Patriots. The Ravens and Jets averaged 5 AFC Champion selections, and the Colts had a total of 2. Of course, the Colts beat those two teams 50-20 in two playoff games last season, shutting each out in the second half, but let us not let facts into the discussion. The Colts get Anthony Gonzalez back on offense, and Donald Brown should be better, so the offense should be its usual stellar self and probably a tick better than the 2009 version. The defense returns all 11 starters to a team that had allowed the second fewest points in the NFL before the Week 16 game against the Jets. Not only that, but they get a what seems to be healthy Bob Sanders, plus Jerry Hughes. The Colts are loaded, and are truly underrated. I'm not biased enough to say that the Colts are perfect (their o-line needs major run-blocking help), or that everyone should pick them, but for a team with a QB who threw 12 tds and 20 ints last year to get more AFC Champion nods in respectable magazines is ridiculous.
V - Violence
The NFL Violence is at a new level, mainly in the continuing fight against concussions. The new news that Chris Henry had brain damage seemingly from hits absorbed on the field before he died, and that he had never even sustained a concussion has really opened up pandora's box. The NFL has to solve the concussion issues, because players are only becoming bigger, stronger and faster, with the hits becoming more violent and vicious. I do not want to see my heroes of today like Peyton Manning or even Andre Johnson with the mental capacity of vegetables thirty years from now because of repeated blows to the head.
W - Wild, Wacky, Worst, West
The NFL's Western Divisions aren't called bad because of East Coast Bias, but truthfully because they suck ass. No Western division team has won a Wild Card since 2006 (The Chiefs) That's not a lie. It has been four years since there were more than two Western Division teams in the playoffs. The AFC West has potentially two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos and Chiefs (who are at best seven win teams). The NFC West has three teams that could lose double-digit games, and one team that has won 6 games in three years. This is cyclical, as in 2002 the AFC West had all of its teams finish 8-8 or better and sent the Raiders to the Super Bowl, but the cycle is really stuck on the West being suck (I know that wasn't quite English, but I got a rhyme in there anyway).
X - (e)Xtra Games
If Roger Goodell gets this through, I will legitimately call for his head every day I can.He has released his fair share of bad ideas, but this is the worst. First of all, who would the teams play in these extra games. It will only make teams' schedules less equal, and make the playoffs more about if you get a tough extra two games or an easy extra two games. Then, the records and numbers will be totally screwed. Right now, if a team scores 500 points in a season, that's a big deal. Not if the season is 18 games long, as then that team would 28 points a game. It will inflate numbers, and records will be shattered, milestones reached by ordinary players. Finally, there is the injury concern, with two extra games meaning two more chances for star players (or any player) to be injured. Careers will be shorter, lives will be shorter. All in all, there is no benefit to adding two extra regular-season games.
Y - Year After Effect
Usually this effects the Super Bowl runner-up more than the Super Bowl winner, but since the Steelers ended the Pats run of success by winning Super Bowl XL, Super Bowl winner has yet to win a playoff game the following year, including twice losing divisional round games at home. In that span, the Super Bowl runner-up has twice won playoff games. Super Bowl runner-ups have made the postseason twice in the past four years (with the 2008 Pats going 11-5 but not making the playoffs), which is the same amount of Super Bowl winners who have made the playoffs in the past four years. As for the Saints, they seem literally hungover. The Saints celebrated more than any team in recent memory after their Super Bowl win, having two parades, making innumerable media interviews, and writing book after book. The Colts have moved forward from the start (whether that was being stubborn or smart, I don't know). The Saints are primed for a let down.
Z - Zebras
And of course, those damn refs. The umpire spotting the ball and running backwards seems to be the new biggest complaint, but after a year of referee gaffes (Jim Joyce being the headliner) and with the admission from Bill Leavy effing up Super Bowl XL, there is bad karma surrounding the men in stripes. The referees now have a new head of refereeing who seems less amicable than good ol' Mike Perreira. Refereeing did not ruin the 2009 Postseason, and I can only hope that stays true in 2010.
Starting tomorrow: Division Breakdowns
