I liked my formula ranking picker I unveiled last year in the playoffs that I am bringing it back, regular season style. I will now rank the teams in the NFL 1-6 in offense, defense, QB and coach (don't worry, I'll do a longer 1,000 word+ plus QB and coach breakdown later in the year). These initially will be done purely on my guess as to how these units will play in the NFL season, and in the future will be adjusted based on how those teams perform in the season plus my guesses as to how they will play in the following weeks. By the way, since there are 32 teams, assigning them 1-32 would be absolutely ridiculous, since the formula would end up with the Buccanneers at 252 (I'm estimating, a little). So they are in groups:
(1 = elite, 2 = very good, 3 = good, 4 = average, 5 = below average, 6 = awful).
Offense
1 = Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
No surprises here. They have the league's two premier QBs, a bevy of receiving weapons, and at least for the Saints, a quality running game. What makes the Saints and Colts "elite" compared to other great offenses is that they consistently put up points against all teams, good or bad.
2 = Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Diego Chargers
The reason a lot of these teams are here are because they can light up the stat-sheet, and even the scoreboard against lesser competition, but at times struggle against quality opponents more than "elite" offenses should. The Hardest team to put in this category instead of the "elite" category is Green Bay. However, I can't get out of my head their performance in their three most important regular season games (vs BAL, and the two MIN games) where their o-line couldn't block anyone, and they fell behind early.
3 = Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles
All of these teams can score, but also can be shut down by quite a few teams. The Vikings are only here because of Sidney Rice's injury (which I doubt he would be fully recovered from until 2011) The Cardinals are here becuase of Derek Anderson replacing Matt Leinart, plus they still have great weapons at the receiver position and runing back. The Cowboys just looked abhorrently bad in the preseason, and their red zone offense isn't nearly good enough to merit a better spot.
4 = Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
These are frisky. What is interesting is that three of these teams are the three best running team in the NFL. The Panthers still don't have a second receiver, the Jets still do have their scatter-brain QB, and the Titans have a RB who is bound for regression towards the mean. The Steelers transition back to the running game also hurts their chances. Detroit has all the skill positions there. Schwartz needs to build that o-line.
5 = Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers here have the best upside, but Singletary is against going shutgon primarily, which Alex Smith needs to be comfortable. The Jaguars o-line is in tatters, and they really struggle against out-of-division teams. The Broncos have just traded away all of their good skill position players.
6 = Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They are all dregs. I hate putting the Seahawks here, but Hasselbeck is no longer a quality QB, and their trade of Houshmanzadeh leaves them pretty bare. The others are all struggling to build offenses. Two, Cleveland and St. Louis, had some friskiness but lost key guys (Hardesty, Avery) which put them back down here.
Defense
1 = Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
These three are all set apart from all the others. The Bengals were unfortunate with injuries last
season (Odom, Maualuga) and still were great most of the time. The Steelers missed two of their four best defensive players and were still a top-10 defense, and now everyone's back and healthy for both. The Jets were healthy for all of last year (except for Kris Jenkins, but NTs aren't that important in Rex's defense) and were great. These are the three best.
2 = Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers
All of these teams have the players to play great defense. The Bears and Colts will never utterly dominate teams, but they are the best two Tampa-2 teams out there, and both teams are getting their second best defensive player back fully healthy (Urlacher, Sanders). San Francisco doesn't have the greatest secondary and the Ravens don't have a great secondary at all. The Packers defense is much like their offense, dominant against dregs and average against quality opposition.
3 = Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins
The Cowboys are here mainly because of regression. Their run defense relies too much on older players that are bound to get worse due to natural decline. Plus, they are also inevitably going to be more injured this year. The other teams are all teams whose defense will keep them in most games. The Giants are the opposite of the Cowboys, in that due to injuries healing and a change in coaching, they are bound to improve to their 2005-2008 levels. The Cardinals still have a bevy of talent, despite losing Dansby and Rolle.
4 = Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers
Luckily for the Falcons, Texans, Saints, Patriots and Chargers, their offenses are good enough to win most of these games, but the common theme between all of these teams is that they lack the brilliant players that the better defenses have. People somehow believe the Eagles are still a good defense, but Jim Johnson's influence has not been replaced, and they were strafed by good offenses last season.
5 = Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
None of these teams defenses have the coaching or the players to be very good. The Buccaneers will be quite good in the future, but it is too early for them. The Chiefs have the coaching to be competent, but not the players. The Jaguars are just the definition of below average, and the Seahawks cannot stay healthy at all.
6 = Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos, St. Louis Rams
They just stink. I'm throwing Denver in here because they will not have Dumervil all season, and Mike Nolan is gone. The Broncos defense was horrible to end last season after their 6-0 start. The Lions and Rams are just obvious. They aren't very good. The Lions have talent in the d-line, but nothing else. The Rams really have nothing.
Quarterbacks
1 = Indianapolis Colts (Manning), New Orleans Saints (Brees), Pittsburgh Steelers (Roethlisberger - however, until he comes back, drop them to 5), San Diego Chargers (Philip Rivers)
These are the top-4. They can be joined by other guys later, but for now, for the regular season, these are the best four QBs in the sport. They don't fold late, they don't have bad games. They are just consistent. Of course, until Roethlisberger comes back, the Steelers drop to a '5'. I'm a Rivers believer, at least in the regular season.
2 = Green Bay Packers (Rodgers), Houston Texans (Schaub), Minnesota Vikings (Favre), New England Patriots (Brady), New York Giants (Manning)
These guys are great in fantasy, and are great in certain aspects but aren't the complete package. Brady, Rodgers and Schaub all struggle in close games. Of course, this wasn't always the case with Brady, but he was plain bad in close games last season. Eli is the opposite, as he is great in close games late, but struggles at times. Brett Favre is due to some decline, but he clearly can play that offense perfectly, and still has enough weapons, plus he has the best RB of the group.
3 = Atlanta Falcons (Ryan), Baltimore Ravens (Flacco), Chicago Bears (Cutler), Cincinnati Bengals (Palmer), Dallas Cowboys (Romo), Washington Redskins (McNabb)
There is upside (Ryan, Flacco), downside (McNabb, Romo) and two guys who aren't as bad as they were last season (Cutler, Palmer). Romo and McNabb have peaked, and Romo's low int-rate was probably a fluke. Ryan and Flacco are similar players, with similar upsides. Cutler will probably still throw interceptions, but with Martz his numbers should explode, while Palmer now has the weapons that made him great in 2005-2007.
4 = Carolina Panthers (Moore), Denver Broncos (Orton), Detroit Lions (Stafford), Jacksonville Jaguars (Garrard), Miami Dolphins (Henne), Oakland Raiders (Campbell), San Francisco 49ers (Smith), Tennessee Titans (Young)
The hardest things to guage in the NFL is an average QB. People love to either fellate their QB if he is good, or prod him if he's bad. People don't know what to do with an average one. Stafford and Henne won't stay average for long, but the others are about as good as they will be. They are all good enough to go to the playoffs with help, but probably not good enough to win a Super Bowl (unless they have Ravens 2000 type help).
5 = Arizona Cardinals (Derek Anderson), Cleveland Browns (Delhomme), New York Jets (Sanchez), Philadelphia Eagles (Kolb) Seattle Seahawks (Hasselbeck), St. Louis Rams (Bradford)
I don't trust Kevin Kolb at all, and his shakiness in the preseason just made my trust level go further down. Sanchez is wildly overrated. Anderson, Delhomme and Hasselbeck are all similar in that they will have great moments, but more likely horrible ones (or in Hass's case, painful, injurious ones). Bradford is a rookie, and without any help. He will not follow the Sanchez, Flacco, Ryan path into the playoffs, at least in year one.
6 = Buffalo Bills (Edwards), Kansas City Chiefs (Cassel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Freeman)
These three are the worst starters in the league. Freeman has upside, I guess, but has very little to work with. Cassel has shown just how important Randy Moss is to a QBs ability, and Trent Edwards is just a horrible fit in Buffalo, as he has no deep arm which is necessary in that Buffalo wind.
Coach
1 = Carolina Panthers (Fox), New England Patriots (Belichick), New Orleans Saints (Payton), New York Giants (Coughlin), Tennessee Titans (Fisher)
Obviously, analyzing coaching is really diffucult, but through their ability to win consistently, manage games brilliantly, and in the cases of Fisher and Fox, perform steadily with less-than talent, they are all the elite coaches in the league.
2 = Arizona Cardinals (Whisenhunt), Baltimore Ravens (Harbaugh), Green Bay Packers (McCarthy), Philadelphia Eagles (Reid), Pittsburgh Steelers (Tomlin), Washington Redskins (Shanahan)
Other than Reid and Shanahan, the other four are all young coaches who have had immediate, sustained success. Reid may screw up his timeouts, but is a premier play-caller. Tomlin doesn't handle any play-calling responsibilities, but his image is stamped all over that team. Whisenhunt's true ability will be tested now without Kurt Warner.
3 = Atlanta Falcons (Smith), Chicago Bears (Smith), Cincinnati Bengals (Lewis), Houston Texans (Kubiak), Indianapolis Colts (Caldwell), Miami Dolphins (Sparano), New York Jets (Ryan), San Diego Chargers (Turner)
All of these coaches have certain flaws that keep them right below the level of the greats. For guys like Ryan, Turner and Lewis, it is their game management. For Smith and Sparano, it is their ability to build complex teams. I don't yet trust Caldwell. In the few games he faced real coaching pressure, he wasn't always up to task.
4 = Dallas Cowboys (Phillips), Detroit Lions (Schwartz), Minnesota Vikings (Childress), Oakland Raiders (Cable), San Francisco 49ers (Singletary)
I like Singletary as a motivator, but his thinking of what his offense should be like is vastly different from what the 49ers actually need. Schwartz seems to be universally loved, but hasn't really showed anything. Philips and Childress are one in the same. Their records are fine but neither seems to be ever in total control of his team.
5 = Buffalo Bills (Gailey), Cleveland Browns (Mangini), Jacksonville Jaguars (Del Rio), Seattle Seahawks (Carroll)
Gailey and Carroll haven't coached in the NFL in over a decade, so it is hard to trust either. Del Rio has been coaching on borrowed time for years, and Mangini has the problem of having a boss that doesn't entirely gel with him.
6 = Denver Broncos (McDaniels), Kansas City Chiefs (Haley), St. Louis Rams (Spagnuolo), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Morris)
Well, McNasty has done nothing but trade away good players and use the draft picks in return to mostly select bad players. He inherited a good team, which is the only thing that kept him from a 4-12 season. The key between theses four coaches, all of them are entering their second years. Worse still, three of them had a worse record in their first year than in the year previous.
Formula Rankings (Formula: (Offense+Defense)*3 + Quarterback*2 + Coach)
1 = Indianapolis Colts - 14
2 = Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints - 18
4 = Pittsburgh Steelers - 19*
5 = New York Giants - 20
6 = Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals - 21
8 = Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers - 23
11 = Houston Texans - 25
12 = Minnesota Vikings - 26
13 = Atlanta Falcons - 27
14 = Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets - 28
16 = Washington Redskins - 29
17 = Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans - 30
20 = Philadelphia Eagles - 33
21 = Miami Dolphins - 35
22 = Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers - 36
24 = Detroit Lions - 42
25 = Jacksonville Jaguars - 43
26 = Cleveland Browns - 45
27 = Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos - 47
29 = Seattle Seahawks - 48
30 = Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 51
32 = St. Louis Rams - 52
* - Pittsburgh will be a 27 until Roethlisberger returns
