This is a weekend that generally the coming-out party of the teams with a bye. These are the top-4 teams in the NFL, the only teams in the league to win 75% of their games. However, they are all being treated as vulnerable toddlers if you take the mainstream media for their word. Every single team is being questioned, even the teams that have won 11 straight games coming in. The Saints and the Colts were being hailed as the "Greatest 2-Team Run Ever", and now they are seemingly freefalling faster than the Patriots. The Vikings were 12-4, and 8-0 in that ludicrously loud dome of theirs, however you have to look under canyons, let alone rocks, to find anyone that thinks they can even make this a game. Finally, people are being lured by Rex Ryan's hypnotic tummy, becuase the thinking in that game seems split. I'm calling it redemption weekend, as the teams being slammed for either entering the playoffs on losing streaks, or being slammed for not having a star on their helmets and having the most inanely annoying character in NFL history. Onto the games:
Arizona @ New Orleans (-6.5)
Cardinals: Offense - 1; Defense - 4; QB - 1; Coach - 1; Formula Rating: (1+4)*3 + 1+1 = 17
Saints: Offense - 2; Defense - 2; QB - 2; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (2+2)*3 + 2+2 - 1 = 15
Formula Winner: New Orleans Saints
State of the Teams: So, these are the two best teams in the NFC, of course they have to play each other. This would have been a thrilling NFC Championship Game, yet one of that Minnesota-Dallas group will crash its way into the game next weekend. There is buzz for Arizona, however, I'm not quite sure why. Their defense was complete garbage for three quarters. They needed to make just one stop in that second half, one, and that was the game. Sure, their offense was at a 2007 Patriots level, but as the Patriots now know, that only goes so far. You need a defense too. The Saints have that defense, one that creates turnovers at a near-league high level. Charles Grant missing will be a problem, but at least its not Will Smith, or Sedrick Ellis. Everyone else is healthy. Jabari Greer, Roman Harper, Darren Sharper all healthy and ready to play. They can make stops on good offenses. The New Orleans o-line was knicked up near the end of the year, and reportedly the bye helped alot. Sure, they ended the year sourly, but its not like some of the other great offensive juggernauts ended the year great (cough*2007 Pats*hacking coughing up phlegm cough). They were still a team that at home fed off that crowd, and can sleep walk to 30 points.
Redemption Factor: People now hate the Saints. They have turned from America's darling into America's self-flaggelating lamb in three weeks. People have been bagging on them for weeks now. Evidently everyone just permanently deleted that Monday Night smackdown, their consecutive 40 points performances against the Eagles and Giants and all the other great showings they've had this year. Their defense was bagged on, as people overlooked serious injuries that are now fixed. This team is getting no love, which is shocking when they were universally hailed as the best team in football after that beatdown of the Pats. They have a crowd, a city and a state all behind them, and the Saints fans can jack-up that stadium like no other. This is a perfect week for the Saints to show up in full colors and remind the NFL that they are still the top team in the NFC.
Weird Stat to Help Me Pick the Game: Teams that score over 35 in the wild card round since 2002 are 2-5 in the divisional round.
Pick: I just cannot get that defensive performance by the Cardinals out of my head. Aaron Rodgers is an excellent player, but he's not Drew Brees, and Rodgers' stable of targets are not Colston, Moore, Meachem, Henderson, Bush, Thomas, Shockey, Thomas. The Cardinals just don't have the horses to keep up. I expect Warner to keep pace, but I think with the depth of the secondary of the Saints, the loss of Boldin, who is expected to miss the game, will be felt. Saints win it, more comfortably than expected, but the two teams still put on the most exciting show of the weekend. Cardinals 27 Saints 38 (NO)
Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Ravens: Offense - 3; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 1; Formula Rating: (3+3)*3 + 4+1 = 23
Colts: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+3 - 1 = 12
Formula Winner: Indianapolis Colts
State of the Teams: The Ravens are riding high after that blowout over the Pats, being the team to finally kill of any lingering media-birthed mystique Brady and Belichick might have had. Their running game is playing at an all-year high, putting up over 175 yards for three straight weeks. The defense is finally getting pressure and creating turnovers, and were solid against the run as they always are. Ngata, Gregg and Edwards (who is finally doing something after being a first-round pick in 2004) are plugging up the gaps, and letting Suggs, Lewis and Johnson roam free in space. Ray Lewis is playing very well, and the team is in total sync in when to rush, anticipating snap-counts brilliantly. However, getting turnovers, especially tipped-ball interceptions is luck, and it is hard to imagine them forcing three more first-quarter turnovers, and leading 24-0 after one quarter. Flacco enters with a bruised hip, and it showed as he had no real mobility and was sailing passes. He will need to do more than 34 yareds. The Colts, on the other hand, are entering with two straight losses, much controversial losses, where they rested everyone. They chose to rest players over pursue perfection, and there is no way to say that at least they succeeded at resting players. The Colts are by far healthier now than they have been all year. All of their players that were knicked up are now healthy and ready to go.
Redemption Factor: Only the Minnesota game has a higher redemption factor. The Colts are beng slammed. They were universally hated after throwing away a shot at perfection. It was as if the Colts were quilty of administering serial-beheadings to the entire state of Indiana. Now, there is added pressure and hate on the Colts becuase of some perceived "They were rusty in 2005 and 2007 when they sat guys". In 2005, after James Dungy tragic suicide, Dungy left the team and the Colts rested far MORE than they rested this year. They were rusty, but the way the team was handled was understandably poor. In 2007, they were not healthy. Freeney was out and Mathis and Brock were hobbling. Also, they did not play rusty, as Manning connected on his first 13 throws, and they had chances to win. The Colts are mad. They want to show the league that they are the team that won 14 straight games. That they are not going to be one-and-done again.
Weird Stat to Help Me Pick Games: Since the 2002 Division realignment, the home team is 6-1 on the Saturday Night Game, with the only loss being last year when Arizona beat Jake Delhomme (needless to say, Manning is not Delhomme).
Pick: The Colts are mad. They are the team that will make every play when neccesary. They have the confidence and the cool to play better at the tightest moments. The Ravens have thrown games away with penalties and turnovers, but when these two teams played in Week 11, it was the Colts that almost threw the game away. The Colts turned it over more, and Tom Santi fumbled at the goal-line when they could have taken a 24-9 lead. That game was not as close as a 17-15 game, and this won't be either. Manning is locked in. The Lucas Oil Field will be jacked up, roaring to go on a Saturday Night fest. The Ravens are riding high, but with a Colts defense that will not be a soft pillow against the run, and make Flacco throw more than 10 times, it's hard to envision them getting as many points. Ravens 14 Colts 27 (IND)
Dallas @ Minnesota (-2.5)
Cowboys: Offense - 3; Defense - 1; QB - 3; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (3+1)*3 + 3+3 = 18
Vikings: Offense - 4; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+3)*3 + 4+4 - 1 = 28
Formula Winner: Dallas Cowboys
State of the Teams: The Cowboys are being hailed as the second coming of the '72 Dolphins at this point. Romo has been excellent at controlling the ball, which is really all he needs to do with a finally healthy and functioning running game. Their defense though is at a '00 Ravens high by the sounds of it. They have only allowed 14 points in their last three games COMBINED. Their front-seven is finally playing at the level it did in 2007 with Anthony Spencer reaching the potential that allowed Greg Ellis to be a replacable part. Jay Ratliff is getting excellent penetration on pass-rushing situations, and Olshansky and Spears are holding the point-of-attack well, shutting down the run. The key for the Cowboys is the secondary. They can be beat, but are playing with confidence. Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman are both playing well, but get into times where they play spottily and try to make plays on the ball when they aren't there. The Vikings seem to be in free fall, but their offense is still chumming along. Brett Favre has been amazing in the dome, and Peterson is still a back that requires at least 7 in the box. Percy Harvin is finally healthy, and having him back makes their trips set so much more dangerous. The Vikings defense has been exposed in the back-end, and it weirdly coincided with the return of Antoine Winfield. The depression in their secondary play is less voiced but more noticable and important than the loss of EJ Henderson. The Vikings are injury-plagued and many guys are playing down in the tail end of the season, but they all seem to raise their level in the dome.
Redemption Factor: This has never been higher maybe in memory. Only Arizona's round one game last year was anything near this. I have yet to find one person who thinks that the Vikings will win. Most people even expect the Cowboys to run all over them. The Vikings are the lowest favorite, and I am amazed that Vegas has not moved the line much, since there is roughly 70% of the betting action on the Cowboys. The Vikings have to be really, really mad at all this. They are 8-0 at home, were 10-1 at one point, and have dominated good teams at home. They play with that crowd, and those defenders on the d-line just get great jumps on the ball when at home. Even knowing all this, no one, and I mean NO ONE, is picking the Vikings.
Weird Stat to Help Me Pick This Game: Since the 2002 realignment, the home team is 3-4 in the Sunday Early game, with the road team winning three of the last four, and the one time that the home team won in the last four years it went to overtime (Seattle 24 Chicago 27).
Pick: I just cannot help but lose the feeling that the fact that there is no one picking the Vikings signals a huge letdown for the betting public and a huge win for Vegas. You cannot find one person that would pick the Vikings, even at like 10-1 odds. It's like this game is in Dallas and Jerry Jones is personally reffereeing, seeing the way people just assume Dallas is going to win. At least people have the whole "The top teams are on losing streaks" theory to drown out rational thought in the Saints and Colts games. There is no excuse for this. Even my self-made rankings love the Cowboys. If I have learned one thing from trying to watch betting lines and picks the last couple of years is that there are no obvious games. Here you have an team that is 8-0 at home, and on defense excels at rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the other side, you have a team that is 5-3 on the road, that loves to run the ball and has an offensive-line that has crazy periods of suckiness randomly. Why is this game so obvious? It's not for me. Vegas will build five new casinos after this one, if I am right (and my formula and the whole of America is wrong). Cowboys 20 Vikings 24 (MIN)
New York (a) @ San Diego (-7.5)
Jets: Offense - 4; Defense - 1; QB - 3; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+1)*3 + 3+4 = 22
Chargers: Offense - 2; Defense - 4; QB - 2; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (2+4)*3 + 2+2 - 1 = 21
State of the Teams: The Jets enter this game with their eyes focused and their mouths agape, spewing trash and bravado. Why not? They are the team that "backed in" and are now making the most of it. Their defense has beautifully adjusted to losing Kris Jenkins, and with the now health of David Harris, their pass-rush is effective and constant. Their running game is the best in the league, and with Shonn Greene bursting onto the scene with alarming success, it is only better now. That offensive-line is high-priced but mercilessly effective. Mark Sanchez was amazing in his playoff debut. He was cool and efficient. It helped that the Bengals forgot who Dustin Keller was, but Sanchez was still accurate on all his throws. The Chargers are the hottest team in the league. Winners of 11 straight, they have been ruthlessly effective throwing the ball deep. They have switched mentalities, eschewing crusty LT for Rivers and an aerial show. All his tall targets are excellent at going up for Rivers' perfect deep ball. They mix in their backs well in that passing game. That defense is finally playing better against the run, but is still vulnerable. In total, their defense is worse than the Bolts defense of each of the last five years, but they now are more poised late in close games.
Redemption Factor: This is really low. People love the Chargers. I mean they love them. The Colts are the new black-sheep for pulling their starters, while the Chargers are the new darling-team. They have taken surprisingly little flak for repeated playoff failures. They have know been labelled as one of the most talented teams (actually, most say they are the MOST talented) in the NFL for five years. What have they done: missed the playoffs in '05, one and done at 14-2 in '06, lost the Title game in '07, and were ball-cracked in Heinz Field in '08. If the Colts missed the Super Bowl for four straight years they would be crucified. However, they are not the Colts, they get the benefit of the doubt. People love them, and will pick them this week, and mercilessly pound money on them next week if they play Indianapolis.
Weird Stat to Help Me Pick This Game: The team entering the postseason with the longest winning streak since 2004 has not won the Super Bowl, with the 2005, 2006 and 2008 teams that entered the postseason with the longest winning streak not making it past the Divisional Round (2005 - Washington, 2006 - San Diego, 2008 - Indianapolis).
Pick: I love the Jets. They match up so well with the Chargers. The Jets can shut people down passing the ball. They did it to the Saints, they relatively did it to the Colts, they can do it to the Chargers. The Raiders are the only team that took V-Jax out of the game, and the Chargers beat them by 4 and 8. The Jets can run the ball better than any team in the NFL, and the Chargers have allowed 100 yards rushing in 13 of 16 games this year. The Jets are the best defense, and the Chargers have struggled to put away good defenses, let alone great ones. Call it a hunch, like most of these picks actually. The formula is suprisingly close, and that does it for me. The Chargers will have to endure another sadist winter, and maybe they will finally start taking some of the flak the Colts had to endure. Jets 20 Chargers 16 (NYJ)
Enjoy the Games!!!!
