It's here, the best single day of football in the NFL weekend. You have the two best teams all year long in the NFC, and the two most deserving teams in the AFC. You have the raucous Superdome, and the underratedly raucous Lukas Oil Stadium. You have three of the top-QBs in the NFL, and one precocious overrated rookie. It should be interesting. Let's just go to those picks. By the way, the formula rankings are still the Divisional Round rankings, as ranking each unit one or two is just silly
New York (a) @ Indianapolis (-7.5)
Jets: Offense - 4; Defense - 1; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+1)*3 + 4+4 = 23
Colts: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+3 - 1 = 12
Formula Winner: Indianapolis Colts
I may be a Jets hater, or just a biased Colts fan. More likely, I am heavily both, but I thank God every day that the Jets are the team coming to the Luke and not the Chargers. The Jets are a nice team, with the best defense in the NFL this year, but that defense is one that gave up 20 to the Dolphins twice, the Jaguars and the Pats. They blew three fourth quarter leads at home to the Jags, Dolphins and Falcons. The Chargers were a great match-up for them. The Chargers had no real defense to speak of (they gave up 100 yards rushing in 13 of the 16 games), and they lived and died by the big play. The Chargers, and moreso Philip Rivers, are not patient enough to take small chunks. The Chargers don't score on sustained drives, they score with bombs, and the Jets defense deep-passes better than any other team in the NFL. Herein lies the biggest difference between the Colts and the Chargers. The Colts don't live by the big play. The Colts, and moreso Peyton Manning, will take the check-down, the dink, the dunk all the way down the field.
Peyton is inflappable nowadays. He can't be rattled like how he was in those playoff games in Foxboro. He is the best QB today at identifying blitzes, which he did at a PhD level in the Week 16 game. Manning was not touched. Rex Ryan sent all sorts of pressures at him, and Manning identified each and every single one of them. It was flawless. As for Manning's passing, it was far from flawless in the Week 16 game. Manning missed two potential touchdowns to Reggie Wayne, who routinely got behind Darrelle Revis, and Dallas Clark dropped another potential huge play. Even then, Manning's stats were quite good given that he only played until midway through the third quarter. Unless Manning suddenly reverts to 2003 Manning, and the Luke mysteriously begins to resemble Foxboro, I don't see any way the Colts are held under 20.
As for the other side of the matchup, I don't see how the Jets sniff 20 points of offense. Logical thinking says that they can run on the Colts, however that same logic said the same thing about Baltimore. Baltimore's offense is very comaprable. The Jets have a slightly better running game, and the Ravens a slightly better passing game. Now, those slight difference are advantageous to the Jets, but the Ravens only put up 3 points. They were never really close to scoring any more. They turned the ball over, did not protect Flacco, and by any indication the Ravens o-line is every bit as good as the Jets. Finally, the Jets "advantage" of having a power running game, and running it down the middle, is bunk, since the Colts are actually better at stopping runs down the middle, than over the ends, as they have hulky DTs, and Freeney and Mathis care more about rushing upfield than staying very disciplined at the point of attack. On either side of the ball, the matchup favors the Colts.
Teams go on runs like the Jets all the time, but those runs inevitably end (2007 Giants aside), and they usually end when they run into simply put, a better team. The Colts are that team, and unlike the Chargers, they don't matchup horrifically with the Jets. It should be a fun atmosphere, and for the sake of my heart-burn, I hope I am right on with the Colts winning another comfortable game.
Jets 13 Colts 27 (IND)
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Vikings: Offense - 4; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+3)*3 + 4+4 = 29
Saints: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+2 - 1 = 11
Formula Winner: New Orleans Saints
People often use the transitive property in football. One common use is saying, well the Vikings killed the Cowboys, who beat the Saints, so transitively the Vikings should beat the Saints. The other is that the Vikings killed the Cowboys, who are better than the Cardinals who were beaten less convincingly by the Saints, so the Vikings are entering the game with the advantage. Both of these scenarios are mathematically and logically correct, but are both wrong. The Saints have the advantage.
When the Saints have the ball, they can easily take advantage of the Vikings suspect secondary, made even more suspect with Antoine Winfield hobbled. Bennie Sapp is not a good corner, as shown by his awful performances in the Arizona and Carolina losses. That defense really misses the veteran presence of Darren Sharper (more on him later). The Saints running game will probably resemble the Colts running game, as they will run with little success, and use it solely as a way to slow down the pass rush and keep that defense honest. What is the real matchup here is the Vikings defensive line against the Saints o-line. The Saints o-line really struggled against the Cowboys, and the Vikings are a d-line that has a higher peak performance than the Cowboys. What helps the Saints is that the Vikings play a 4-3. The Saints have been great at pass-blocking against 4-3s, while struggling against 3-4 (Jets, Cowboys). The Saints have the ability to create matchup problems out wide, putting their second, third and fourth wideouts against LBs and safeties, which do not spell good things for the Vikings. Sean Payton will definitely find a way to match up one of their wideouts, or Shockey or Bush against rookie Jasper Brinkley, or average cover safety Tyrell Johnson. The Saints should be able to put up points, as Brees quick release will be great against a team whose defense lacks speed in its back seven.
The Vikings key is running the ball. The Saints have the best stable of defensive backs in the NFC, with Jabari Greer finally healthy. Jabari Greer was brilliant early in the year, and he should be able to take out Sindey Rice. Now, there are reports of reoccuring migraines afflicting Percy Harvin. If Harvin is not able to go, this could get ugly. I'm going to go as Harvin will be playing, for the sake of the matchup. Again, the key is running the ball. When they were winning road games, they ran well (see the game in Lambeau, the last road game they won). That running game has been stopped dead in its tracks, but against good running defenses of Carolina, Arizona, Chicago and Dallas. The Saints run defense is average at best, and since its pass defenses can lock down, get pressure with various blitzes out of multiple formations (an almost complete switch from Dallas' conventional 3-4 blitz scheme), and force turnovers. Turnovers are the key for the Saints defense. If their offense comes out firing, and they are able to jump on top, they can make the Vikings play into their hands. Turnovers are the story of the Saints. When they get them, they can quickly change games. Case in point, the Cards had the ball at 7-7, and Jerehme Urban caught a pass for like 20 yards. It seemed the Cards were rolling towards another seven, when Tracy Porter forced the fumble, and Darren Sharper, like he has done all year, recovered it. The Saints scored six plays later, and the game was over. If they are able to force Favre into turnovers, which he has done in the road games, they can keep the Vikings in the twenties.
The Superdome will be louder than ever. I know I say that nearly every week, but it is more true now than ever. You own a stadium, you own a team for the chance to host this game. This game is the best game for any team to play at home. It is like the Super Bowl, with a trophy being handed out at the end, except it has all of your fans at the game. It is the best crowd of the year. That is the difference. I don't think the Vikings can stop that blitz in that dome. It has been a nice run for Favre, a career year in many ways, but this was also a career year for Brees and that offense. They have owned the NFC all year long, and they will coronate themselves on Sunday Night. New Orleans will finally have an NFC Championship Game, and if I am right, they will also hoist that George Halas trophy for the very first time.
Vikings 20 Saints 31 (NO)
Enjoy the Games, the last true Sunday of Football until September.
