6.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Offense: They are the definition of a big play offense. They rank 30th in 10-play drives, and second in scoring drives of 5 plays or less (NO is first). If they don't get the big play, they struggle to put up any points, as witnessed by last Sunday's game in Dallas. Having Jammal Jackson injured is huge, as centers are arguably the most important o-line position in terms of their effect on the line as a whole. The Eagles running game is surprisingly good in overall production, with 4.4 YPC. Leonard Weaver is a huge x-factor, as the Eagles are 6-1 in games where he gets 30 yards or more. He is the only true "clock-control" running back, and is a good receiver out of the back-field, something sorely missed with DeSean Jackson playing like a shell of himself. Donovan is very hit-or-miss these days, with 6 games with a passer rating over 100 and 4 with a rating less than 80. If he is on, then they can be scary, but it looks like that missing Jackson has really effected the line, and without protection, McNabb is very average now. Ranking: 5 out of 6
Defense: Their defense may be the most solely overrated unit in the playoffs this year. They are totally living by past reputation. Now, Sean McDermott has filled in admirably for the late great Jimmie Johnson, but to say that this Eagles defense is the same is just not true. They had a string of mediocre to bad offenses on their slate (Chicago, Washington twice, Atlanta, Oakland, Tampa) so that their overall stats look quite good. However, I look at two games. They gave up 514 yards to the Giants and 474 to the Cowboys. They are now playing those self-same Cowboys. Their defense forces turnovers and can get to the QB, but against the better teams, they have been unable to get good pressure on the QB, as witnessed by the games against the Giants and the Boys. Their run defense is stouter, but their pass-defense can be shredded if they don't get pressure up front. Ranking: 6
Quarterback: Donovan McNabb is now hit-or-miss much like the team in general. His accuracy is probably as good as it has ever been, but what is now different is that he doesn't really have the mobility to get away from pass rush anymore, not even to his level from last year. He was sacked 35 times, and was barely running. Early on in his career, he used to get Big Ben type of sacks, where he runs and runs away from pressure before inevitably getting caught. That doesn't happen anymore. He is a pocket passer. A good one, but a pocket passer. His playoff exprerience will help him, but it has not always been great experiences. Ranking: 3
Coach: Andy Reid, the embattled fatty. He is very underrated as a coach for his game-planning and his talent eye, but that stuff doesn't really help him anymore. Now it is mainly about game management, as every team left is good enough. His team has the talent, talent that he has helped to bring in, but it is now up to him. His past work has been good but not great. Amazingly, the time management that has killed him in the regular season has never really been a problem in the playoffs. Either way, his use of timeouts and challenges like they are kleenex is scary. No Eagles fan is totally comfortable with him leading the team. Ranking: 5
Interesting Note: The Eagles under the Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb regime have never lost their opening playoff game in a season, going 7-0 in thier first game. What may be a caveat in that streak is that they have only been the away team once, last year where they beat Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikes.
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Offense: They have really become better in pas protection, the thing that would totally kill their chances earlier in the year. Rodger was sacked only 8 times in the last 7 games. The improvement is split between Mart Tauscher and Chad Clifton finally healthily manning the tackle positions, and Rodgers just getting rid of the ball sooner. Ryan Grant had a nice bounce back year, turning what was a mess into a huge second half. However, let's look behind the numbers. Here are their offensive points and yard production against teams that were over .500: 24-311, 23-424, 26-358, 17-283, 27-350, 36-436. Those are good but not great numbers. Some of those games are impressive (the 36 against PIT, the 424 yards in Minnesota), but overall, far below their numbers in games against teams that are under .500. Ryan Grant never reached 100 yards (and only 90 once) against teams over .500. Aaron Rodgers only put up a passer rating over 100 twice against those winning teams. The Packers still struggle against premier teams, but they are the new-Pats in their way of dominating weaker teams to pad their overall stats. They are paper tigers on offense, but leopoards in real life. Ranking: 4
Defense: This is where they are real tigers. All year long, only three teams have gotten more than 350 yards against. That is the second best total in the league (the next closest had 5 such games). Only one crossed the 400 yard mark (the Steelers in that wild game). Really, since their Week 5 bye, only the Vikings and Steelers have crossed the 300 yard mark. Even after losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, their defense has kept on swimming at a great pace. Although their 31 sacks are in the bottom half, their total pressures are 8th in the league. They force turnovers at a league-leading rate of 2.5 a game, and are dangerous at any time. Their run defense is stout as well, with Cody Pickett returning with a strong come-back year. Really, in every single way, this is one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the best in the NFC. Period. Ranking: 1
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers had a huge year. Huge. Brett Favre NEVER threw for that many yards. His 30-7 td/int ratio is amazing. He is one of the up-and-coming QBs in the league. However, Aaron seems a bit over-hyped. Sure, his numbers are spectacular, but in what may be the most playoff-like atmosphere he faced this year at home against Baltimore, he was very average. He was great against the Steelers, but that game featured as much defense as the Phoenix Suns. I'm not saying he is not good, he is. But, as Bill Parcells might say, "let's put the anointing oils away". Ranking: 4
Coach: I sang Mike McCarthy's praises earlier this year, and nothing has changed over the past half season. He is a top-flight head coach, with a great pedigree. He has playoff experience, and performed admirably in those playoffs. He rarely makes game managment mistakes, and calls that offense very well, adjusting to the specific strengths of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers run a scheme that is not to complex (deep out-posts, slants), but one that is masterfully called by McCarthy. Ranking: 3
Interesting Note: Guess what NFL team leads the league in rush defense? No, its not the usual suspects Vikings and Ravens. No, it is the Packers.
4.) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
Offense: This is a hard one. At their best, they are as unstoppable as any team in the NFL. Kurt Warner has been amazing in the playoffs, putting up stats at a rate no one has ever done. He literraly ties his shoes, goes through his passing tree and puts on autopilot for 350 yards. Boldin's injury hurts, but there are two extra factors here. Warner throws to the RBs more, with both Wells and Hightower and the running-back flex specialist LaRod Stephens-Howling. Secondly, the running game has transformed. They are now a legitimate dual threat. Beanie Wells was excellent, and Tim Hightower is now actually good, instead of an overhyped schmuck like last year. The offensive line has its bad days, but they seem to be the only team to really be able to turn the switch off and on. When its on, they are a Ferrari, and it seems to be on during the playoffs. There is no point of me putting up regular season stats, I'll just tell you this, last postseason, they scored 30-33-32 points. Fitzgerald went off to the tune of 35 rec 563 yards and 7 tds. He probably won't come close to that, but Beanie and the running game should make up for the difference. Ranking: 2
Defense: The defense, much like the offense, is hit or miss. However, unlike the offense, it hits, alot. They gave up yards alot, but forced turnovers throughout they year, however they really started to gel at the end of the year. They have held five of their last six opponents to 350 yards or less. They forced multiple turnovers in each of the last five games. They were third in the NFL in sacks, and eighth in takeaways. They give up yards, but alot of that has to do with them losing TOP. Their mainstream rate stats are good, being 12th in YPC allowed and 9th in YPA allowed. Those are the numbers that really matter, and they are one of the few teams around the top-10 in both. Ranking: 3
Quarterback: Kurt Warner maybe gray, may like to drink tea and do puzzles, but he is still one of the best performers in postseason history. He has the highest yards-per-game and td-per-game averages in NFL history. He has the highest three single-game Super Bowl passing yards performances, as well as the two highest single-postseason passing yardage performances (1999 and 2009). He has been great. If he has one weakness, it is that he has thrown two pick-sixes in his last two Super Bowls, but we won't have to worry about that for a while. Ranking: 1
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt, much like McCarthy, is one of the rising coaches in the game. I listed him fourth in my coach ranking, and he is first in the NFC playoff ranking. His game management is flawless, always a great conservator of timeouts, and calling the game brilliantly. His game-planning, now that he is the play-caller, has been excellent, mixing in the run exponentially better than last year. Also, he had the sense to get rid of Clacny Pendergast, which has similarily helped that defense. Ranking: 1
Interesting Note: This is the first back-to-back division titles for the Cards in over 50 years.
3.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Offense: Paper Tigers. They can run well. They can throw well. But neither is great. Neither is game-changing. When mixed right, they are pretty dominant, but it is very questionable as to whether they can win the game themselves. They only scored 22.5 ppg (14th in the league). They gain yardage, but it does not translate to points, which goes very well with a team that can throw and run, but do neither at an all-pro level. Their offensive line is not great at run-blocking, by is amazing at a delay draw, which they run all the time and to amazing success. Those three running backs can all get yards between the 20's, but turn a bit softer in the red zone. Their red-zone offense is ranked 20th in the NFL, and that will have to improve as the time goes along. Their o-line has gotten a big boost from Dave Free, who has filled in brilliantly at LG. Flozzell is still a penalty machine, and Andre Gurode is still schizophrenic, but their o-line has been excellent in pass protection. Romo was only sacked 9 times in the last 10 games, and some of those were coverage sacks. Why are there coverage sacks? Becuase other than Miles Austin no one can consistently get free. Jason Witten does, but those are just short routes. He seems to have lost the ability to run deep, as his YPCatch was its lowest since 2004. Overall, the offense sputters to score, and that is what matters at the end of the day. Ranking: 6
Defense: Unlike their offense, their defense is top-notch. Credit Wade Phillips, who is now essentially the defensive coordinator of that team as well. Here is just a stunning stat, they have not given up more than 347 yards since week..... TWO. Yes, their defense has been playing at a great level for over four months now. You can still pass on them, but that allows their great pass rush to get after the QB. Jay Ratliff is on a tear, and he is allowing Spears, Olshansky and even Ware to get added pressure. Their run defense is the second-best in the NFL. There has been a total role-reversal in the last two years for the Cowboys. Now, they are a purely defensive team. Ranking: 1
Quarterback: Tony Romo still has not won in the playoffs. Sure, it is grasping for straws, but when every other QB in the NFC (except for Rodgers, whose stats are better than Romo in every single way) has reached at least the title game, with three reaching Super Bowls, and two winning Super Bowls, it is hard to be too confdent in him. His stats have been good, but in games where Miles Austin is taken away from him (San Diego, Green Bay), he turns into old Romo. Ranking: 5
Coach: Wade Phillips is underrated now. He is still a guy who has made some blunderous decisions, and never won a playoff game, but his job this year has been great. He held together what is still a volatile locker-room, and led that defense perfectly. That defense is great, and Wade is reasons 1 through 99 for why that defense is among the league's best. Ranking: 4
Interesting Note: That defe
nsive stat is amazing. What is more amazing, the last week they scored over 24 points? Week....... 8, on November 1st. That offense is average at best.
2.) Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
Offense: Let's all throw out that Week 17 performance. The Giants were mentally in Cabo. They are lucky the get a home game in round two, where they are 8-0, becuase they are still losers of three straight road games. In those road games, they put up 13 and 7 points, before "exploding" for 30, which is not a huge number for this team. The key here is Peterson. We saw, when Peterson when through his first malaise of his career (4 straight games under 100 yards, 6 straight under 4.5 YPC), Favre was not really able to carry that team by himself. The o-line has really suffered recently, alot to do with a mysterious drop in play from Bryant McKinnie. He seemed to recover in the Bears game, but he is still a question mark. This team is Jekyll at home, but Hyde on the road, and since they have to play one road game, most likely, I'm guessing we see Hyde at some point. Ranking: 3
Defense: EJ Henderson's injury has killed this team. Just killed them. They no longer stuff the run at a historic pace. They still finished the year ranked second against the run, but are only eleventh against the run since the Henderson injury. Pat Williams has also been slightly knicked up, and it seems that one half of the Williams wall at less than full makes the wall far less supple. The secondary is still problematic. Antoine Winfield returned brillaintly against the Bengals, but has since been beat badly. Steve Smith and then Devin Aromashadu pasted them. Allowing 100 to Steve Smith is fine. It happens. But to devin Aromashadu? That is reprehensible. Teams are no longer throwing for 300, but the mid 250's is being hit often, by quarterbacks of the Matt Moore, Jay Cutler ilk (can't believe those two are of the same ilk, btw). Their safeties have not been able to stop the big play, as they rank 10th in giving up 20+ yard pass plays. Some of that has to do with Winfeild's absence, but even since, they have given up big plays. Their defense was great against the Giants, but that should not act as a total bandage for that gushing scab that was their defensive performance against the Bears and their previosuly insane asylum-ed QB Cutler. Ranking: 5
Quarterback: Brett Favre's luster has certainly worn off with those performances, until, again, Week 17. Throwing out Week 17, he was average against the Bears, but that Arizona-Cincy-Carolina triad was ugly. He has not been the greatest playoff QB recently. He threw the pick against the Giants in '07, had a 4-int game in '04, threw that duck in OT against the '03, was totally outplayed by Vick in '02 and had a 6-int horror show in '01 against the Rams. That is the opposite of pedigree. Ranking: 6
Coach: What other coach would personally go to pick-up a player at the airport? The same one that would lose an argument to the same QB? Brad Childress is a puppet to Favre. Favre controls the strings in that operation. Add that to the fact that Childress wastes timeouts that makes Andy Reid look like he's protecting them in a safe-box, and there is no way I can trust him. Ranking: 6
Interesting Note: Visanthe Shianco led the league in REC per TDs, with 11 tds in only 55 catches. His 19 tds in the last two years is the most of any TE.
1.) New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Offense: Let's remember that this team, for a 12 week stretch, played offense that was only matched by the Greatest Show on Turf (they did not run it up like the '07 Pats). They were unstoppable. The last three weeks lost some luster, but I trust Drew Brees to be able to pick it up again. With Lance Moore and Reggie Bush finally back healthy, they have their full stable of weapons. If there is a cause for concern, it is that Jermon Bushrod, a guy who was a replacement LT for Jammal Brown, may have finally reached the point where he is over-his-head. Bushrod gave up 1 sack in their 12 game winning streak, and gave up 4 in the three losses. DeMarcus Ware used him as his personal cabana boy. There is thought that the reason Brees didn't even take one snap is because Payton was scared of subjecting Brees to the Bushrod-Peppers battle. That was not a vote of confidence, but with that quick-strike offense, and Brees's ability to get the ball out of his hands, I'm sure Payton can game-plan around it. Their running game stagnated a bit late, but alot of that had to do with accumulating injuries. Thier RB's trio is finally healthy, and if that run game returns to what it was as recently as the early portion of the Tampa game, than they should have the balance that made them unstoppable. Ranking: 1
Defense: Their defense had the same late-season malaise, but it is mainly shown on turnovers. Causing turnovers is not luck. There are teams that excel at it, and the Saints did, forcing 37 in their first 13 games, by far leading the league. That run came to a grounding halt, but again, there are reasons why. Injuries befell the secondary, and with the first seed all-but locked up, Payton and Williams devised a rotation scheme to give all thier DBs time, while resting them all. Jabari Greer, their top-corner, is finally back healthy. They were fourth against the pass with Greer in there, and 25th with him out. Darren Sharper reportedly wasa knicked up, but should be healthy. The thing here is that they simply played vanilla schemes the last four weeks, rarely sending more than four or mixing up coverages like they did so masterfully in the New England game. It is ridiculous to expect them to return to their peak on defense, but it is also not fair to assume that they cannot get any better. Ranking: 4
Quarterback: Drew Brees was the best statistical QB in the NFL this year. Period. It is not debatable. He probably wasn't the most valuable, as Manning had less to work with, and put up similar numbers, but as simply a guy to put up points and numbers, no one was better. Setting the NFL record for completion percentage was a nice coda to his best season yet. His postseason performances have been interesting, with a bad one in San Diego and two good games agains the Eagles and Bears in 2006. His team fumbled all around him, but he was a warrior in that 2006 NFC Title Game. His mastery of the position is simply unquestioned, but is average postseason drops him below Kurt. Ranking: 2
Coach: Sean Payton may have lost his luster, but there is no better game-planner, and no person who uses the vast multiple array of players at his and his QB's disposal. It seems like Drew Brees and Sean Payton are one in the same, one just controlling the other. His time management is not that great, as witnessed by the butchering of that potential game-tying drive against Dallas, but it is not enough to offset his game-planning. Ranking: 2
Interesting Note: The 13 games with over 350 yards that the Saints put up were the second highest total in NFL history, only behind the 2000 Rams who did it 14 times each.
Rankings Overview
Offense Ranking:
1.) NO
2.) ARZ
3.) MIN
4.) GB
5.) PHI
6.) DAL
Defense Ranking:
1.) GB
2.) DAL
3.) ARZ
4.) NO
5.) MIN
6.) PHI
QB Ranking:
1.) Kurt Warner, ARZ
2.) Drew Brees, NO
3.) Donovan McNabb, PHI
4.) Aaron Rodgers, GB
5.) Tony Romo, DAL
6.) Brett Favre, MIN
Coach Ranking:
1.) Ken Whisenhunt, ARZ
2.) Sean Payton, NO
3.) Mike McCarthy, GB
4.) Wade Phillips, DAL
5.) Andy Reid, PHI
6.) Brad Childress, MIN
AFC Coming Later Today
