Offense: They have returned to their roots. They are a running team again, putting up three games of over 175 yards rushing in their last four. They have even had success running against the better teams that they have played, going over 100 against San Diego, Indianapolis, each Pittsburgh matchup and against New England. However, what hurts them is that thier passing game has decreased in its efficiency and effectiveness in the second half of the season. In the second half of the season, in which the Ravens were 5-3, Joe Flacco's comp%, ypa and td% and int% have all dropped. This also has to do with people finally finding out that there are no real good targets for Flacco to throw at, other than Ray Rice. Derrick Mason has been struggling, and Mark Clayton and Kelly Washington are not really the latter day Rice and Taylor. Todd Heap has been a nice surprise, and the team is 4-0 in games where he scores a TD. Flacco can throw deep outs, but that is a route that gets harder and harder as it gets colder, and the teams that they are playing get better. The key is that offensive line. When Jared Gaither was healthy and manning the LT, putting Michael Oher at RT, the offense was sminning along nicely. However, when Gaither went down, shifting Oher to LT and Oneal Cousins to RT, it sputtered. Gaither is back, but did give up a sack against Oakland. It is unknown how back he really is. If the o-line plays well, that whole offense is just efficient. Not explosive, but efficient. Ranking: 4
Defense: This is not your dad's Ravens. This is not your last-year's'-self's Ravens from 2008. Their overall numbers are nice, 3rd in scoring and yards, 8th against the pass, 5th against the run. But let's look deeper. They ranked 14th in giving up 20+ yard passes. The only playoff team that they held to under 350 yards was the Patriots. Even the Bengals got over 350 both games. The still force turnovers, and have excelled at forcing turnovers in those same games against playoff competition. The key to the defense is the play of Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson. Unlike most 3-4s, the Ravens depend on those LBs, especially for pressure. If Suggs and Johnson can make plays, they will be able to conceal the problems they have had in the back-end. Reed is back, but still gimpy from that groin injury. Teams this year, especially now with Reed's limited mobility, have been able to gameplan around Reed and still hit deep balls, but just the thought of having Reed there seems like a sleeping giant, ready to just explode on someone. In fact, the sleeping giant seems to describe the team as a whole, however, it seems like their nap will continue to 2010. Ranking: 4
Quarterback: Joe Flacco has experience, I'll say that. I'll also say this, his experience has been really up-and-down. He has gone 2-1 last year, but never even completed 50% of his passes in any of those games, and capped it all off with a game-losing pick-six. His play this year has bounced from amazing to awful, and his prospect has gone from super-star to sophomore-slump. All I know is that in the year of the QB, it's hard to have too much confidence. Ranking: 5
Coach: On the other hand, John Harbaugh seems to have avoided all signs of a sophomore-slump. He is the third coach ever to inherit a non-playoff team and go to the playoffs in his first two years. He has made all the right calls, and I have never seen anybody able to manage the clock and his timeouts like he does. Every call he makes seems to be spot-on. Ranking: 2
Interesting Note: The Ravens have not won a home-playoff game since the Wild-Card Round in 2000. They are 6-4 in playoff games since, having only two at home, losing both.
5.) New York Jets (9-7)
Offense: Run, run, run. There is really nothing else. Thomas Jones probably had the most under-the-radar 1400 year ever. Combine that with the bruising of Shonn Greene and the play of Brad Smith, and they have the only true three-headed-rushing monster, and more credit is given to them for recovering from the injury to Leon Washington. Much of that is due to their offensive line. The Ferguson-Faneca-Mangold left side is the best in football in run-blocking. Now let's get to Sanchez. Honestly, him and that passing game, is by far the worst in the playoff field. Dustin Keller seems to have been deported in the offseason, and is replaced by a hand-less stunt-double. Braylon, it seems, can still drop passes in other states. Jerico Cotchery was a nice surprise. Mark Sanchez is 2-6 when he throws 25 passes or more. That is not good, especially when the teams in the AFC are good enough defensively to slow that running game. Ranking: 6
Defense: This is, numbers wise, the best defense in the NFL. They had the top-ranked pass defense, something that Rex Ryan seemed to have stolen from Baltimore. However, they don't really get to the quarterback (22nd in sacks) and don't intercept many passes (14th). So, it boils down to coverage, and much of that is the God that is Darrelle Revis. I know a little a bit about the position of shutdown corner, having been following a team with the best CB in the league in Nnamdi. However, Darrelle came close this year, shutting down everyone not named Tedd Ginn (ironically). He is great at bump, off and press coverage. Can stop people short, can cover deep on the fly. Their run D has struggled, relatively, after losing Jenkins and getting David Harris nicked up, but are still a top-half unit, and other than Cincinnatti and Baltimore (who they could only face in a wild 5-6 title game which has never happened) there is no top runnning game in the AFC. The David Harris injury is big. If he plays, he gives them the best pass-rush, run-stuff combo they have. If not, they are sorely lacking one of their best pass-rushers, and they are already a bit light on the pass-rush side. Another worrying note is the teams lack of being able to make a stop when needed. This is the calling card of a great team, and as witnessed by the two Miami games, the Atlanta game and the Jacksonville game, the Jets have had problems of making key stops in close games late, something that may very well come back to haunt them. Ranking: 2
Quarterback: Here is Mark Sanchez's stat-line: 12 tds, 21 ints, two games with a passer rating over 100. In other words, that translates to this: worst QB in the playoffs. He's a rookie, so he can, and hopefully for the Jets fans, will get better. But, to put him in the same class as Flacco, Ryan and Big Ben as rookies is disrespectful. Ranking: 6
Coach: If this were a coordinator ranking, then it gets an A. However, Rex Ryan has not shown his ability as a game manager, and struggles mightily with his defense in close games, which is the sign of a coach that is struggling. The other AFC coaches are great, so this hurts him. Again, as a DC he is top-notch though. Ranking: 6
Interesting Note: The Jets are the first team ever to lead the league in points allowed and not win double-digit games.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Offense: For a while, they were the neo-Broncos, getting consecutive 100 yd games out of Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Cedric Benson. That didn't last long, but Cedric Benson has.
For whatever reason, be it scheme or o-line or just simple maturity, Benson is now a legitimate top-10 running back. He hits the holes hard, and is rarely stopped for negative yards, something that was as common as wind back in Chicago. Their o-line is a patchwork group, and really doesn't give good protection to Palmer at all, but excels in drive-blocking. Their passing offense has really sputtered after the injury (not death) of Chris Henry, losing the best vertical threat they had. Henry was able to open up holes for Chad underneath. As for the rest of their stable, let's just say that Laveraneaus Coles is no TJ Houshmanzadeh, and Andre Caldwell is no bug-eyed Reche Caldwell. Overall, they are the least impressive offensive team in the playoffs, but I attribute that more to their o-line, and their conservative approach. They know their defense will keep them in games (save for the game in the Metrodome and Week 17). They have been excellent in close games 7-2 in games decided by less than 7 points (discounting Stokley's miracle in Week 1). It seems, as evidenced by that game winning 97 yard drive against the Chiefs, that they can move the ball when necessary. This is also evident in the passing game, as in the biggest game of the year, it was Palmer's arm that nearly pulled off the win in San Diego. Ranking: 5
Defense: Throw out Week 17. They had no intention of playing that game with any sense of passion or even pride. That was a team essentially in a walk-through. In their 15 real games, this was, arguably the best defense in the NFL. They were better than the Jets, becuase they could close out games. They excelled in close games, able to force turnovers (possibly on downs) to seal games. Their duo of corners is the best in the league, with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Only four receivers got to 100 yards against them, the second best figure in the league. It is not ridiculous to say that the Bengals have two of the top-10 corners in the league. Without Mauluaga, their LB corp is weaker, but the true stud, Keith Rivers, is finally healthy. With Dumato Peko and Robert Geathers back for the playoffs, they have their two most important lineman. This is a pressure-based gam scheme, similar to what Lewis ran back in Baltimore, and it excels, as he just plugs in guys (Michael Johnson, Frostee Rucker, Jonathan Fanane) and they all just get pressure on the QB. It is a sight to behold. The Bengals knew they had to Raven and Steeler-up to compete in the AFC North, and for 2009 at least, they passed them both. Ranking: 1
Quarterback: It has not been Carson Palmer's best year, but I attribute that mainly to the o-line, the lack of any weapons, and the conservative gameplan. However, I have to dock Carson because none of that is going to change. I love Carson, but honestly, he has never been the same since that 2005 playoff game hit. That is the second greatest what-if injury of the decade (first comes later!!!) Ranking: 4
Coach: Marvin Lewis has done yeoman's work in Cincinnatti. Even when they were "dissappointing" they hovered around .500 which is better than most coaches in Bengals history. Marvin's game management is surprisingly good, as he saves timeouts well. He keeps his and the team's cool in close games, which is always a plus. Good, solid coach. Ranking: 4
Interesting Note: Their +14 point differential is the lowest in the playoffs (aided by their 37-0 loss in Week 17). Each of the last two years, the team that had the lowest point differential made the Super Bowl. NYG in 2007 (+14) and ARZ in 2008 (+1).
3.) New England Patriots (10-6)
Offense: Who will replace Welker? Not Julian Edelman. Honestly, the way that people opine "Edelmen is just another Welker" is far from the truth, and just blatant racism, if anything. Here are Brady's numbers in Welker-less games (including Week 17): 65-115, 679 yards, 1 td and 2 ints. I'm sorry, but that's impact. Now, their running game did pick up the slack (all of those games, ironically were played with a stable of healthy RBs, inlcuding Fred Taylor) averaging over 120 yards in those three games. Their running-backs are finally all healthy, but none of them are game-changers, and they all have their problems in the red zone. Maroney is a chronic fumbler and is far inside the Belichick Doghouse. Morris, Taylor and Faulk have all had nice years, but with only 8 tds and 2 100-yd games between them, they are harldy world-beaters. The key in this is if Brady can start getting the tight-ends involved, and alot of that has to do with the o-line. In games where the TE's caught 5 balls, the Pats were 7-2 (3-4 otherwise). The TEs are kept into block more than usual, since the o-line has really dropped off since their 2007 heyday, especially Nick Kaczur at RT and Matt Light at the other tackle spot. If they can block, than Watson and Baker can recieve more, allowing Brady to spread it around, as Brady has really struggled to find a third receiver, let alone now a second one. Ranking: 3
Defense: The ultimate smoke and mirrors. Overall, the numbers are fine. However, against competition above .500, and discounting the Jets for their offense impotency, they gave up over 350 yards each time, over 400 yards in three of those games (IND, NO, HOU). Now, all of those teams were in the top-10 of offense, but those are the types of teams New England will have to eventually face. In fact, even beyond just yardage, in every meaningful stat, the Pats struggled against the quadro of IND, NO, BAL, and HOU. They forced only 6 turnovers (22 in the other 12 games). They got only 5 sacks (26 in the other 12). They gave up 128 points in those four games (157 in the other 12). That is the most damning stat. They gave up about 13 points per game against the 12 teams they faced that were either the Jets or .500 and below, and 33 points per game against the top-four teams they faced. They don't get nearly the pressure that Patriots teams in the past used to, and there are far more blown coverages now. The McGowan/Meriwether/Chung safety trio has really fallen off of late. Their corners are average at best. The killer is the continued nagging injuries of Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, who they desperately need now without Richard Seymour. Their LBs struggle at pressure when Warren and Wilfork are in there. It dissapears when they are gone. Ranking: 6
Quarterback: It's still Tom Brady, but any person can tell you that he is just not the same in 2009. His numbers are fine, and are better than any other non-2007 year, but we expected more. Brady feasted on lesser competition, shredding the Tennesee-Tampa-Jacksonville trio. However, other than a great performance for three quarters in Indianapolis, we never saw the Tom Brady that was torching the league in 2007 in any meaningful game. Again though, it's Brady. Ranking: 2
Coach: Belichick postseason coaching record: 15-4. The other 5 coaches coaching record: 6-5. Enough said. It hasn't been Belichick's best year, but still, he has more coaching wins than the rest of the AFC field has coaching games. Ranking: 1
Interesting Note: The Patriots have not lost a home playoff game ever at Gillette Stadium, and Tom Brady hasn't lost a home game as a starting QB since.... Week 10 in 2006.
2.) San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Offense: The Air Show. They have the worst running game in the league. Period. They average 3.3 ypc, worst in the league. Tomlinson is done. Sproles is not a good runner. Jacob Hester was a waste of a second-round pick. This only just adds to the mystique of Phillip Rivers and that pass-attack. Teams know that San Diego can't run at all. They know it to be true. Yet, Rivers is on a career-best tear, topping 260 yards for 5 straight games, with 11 tds and 2 ints in that time. His ability to throw the deep-jump ball to Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd is amazing. Also, quietly, Antonio Gates had another all-pro year. They are 6-1 when Gates catches a TD, and even better when Vincent Jackson gets into the end zone. If there is another flaw, other than that putrid run-game, it is the offensive-line. They don't give up that many sacks, but against the better sacking teams they played (Cincy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver, Eagles, Cowboys) they gave up nearly three a game. The line is still not healthy, and it cannot pass block. This again, has not stopped the Chargers from becoming the third-most dangerous passing team in the league one bit. Ranking: 2
Defense: Mediocre in every way. 11th in scoring, 16th in yards, 18th against the pass, 20th against the run, 19th in sacks and 19th in turnovers. Those numbers are not helping inspire too much confidence in a team that will need its defense if it goes to Indianapolis. Jammal Williams absence has been huge. He is the premier run-stuffing NT in the game, and missing him the whole year has allowed all but three teams to run for 100 on them. That is not a good number, especially with Baltimore, Cincinnati and New York lingering in the playoffs. Antonio Cromartie has not taken off into superstardom like so many expected after that monster rookie season of his (Darrelle Revis is now by far the best corner product of that 2007 draft). However, Quinten Jammer has had a nice rebound year. He is solid at the other corner, as teams now throw at Cromartie to avoid Jammer. The linebackers are now better run-stuffers than pass-rushers, and Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips have really been outplayed by their rotating inside linebackers in every way. This defense is just not a premier unit. They will have to outscore teams. Lucky for them, they can. Ranking: 5
Quarterback: Honestly, the case for MVP for Phillip Rivers is a good one. However, Rivers has never really been a playoff MVP. He was mediocre in his two losses to the Pats in 2006 and 2007 and both games last year. Other than his 2007 game in Indy, he has never put up a passer rating above 100 in a playoff game, or thrown more TDs than Interceptions. Ranking: 3
Coach: Norv Turner's life has turned around since he was handed the keys to a Lamborghini. He won the lottery. However, his passing attack that he has built has been spactacular. He is still wasteful with timeouts, but he and Rivers run the two-minute as well as anyone not in the following team preview. He is no longer a coaching liability. Ranking: 3
Interesting Note: The Chargers are just the second team since the expansion to 16 games to enter the playoffs with a winning streak of at least 11 games.
1.) Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Offense: Peyton. One word. That is it. He makes their o-line better. He makes their average second and third WRs better. He makes that running game managable. The running game is only marginably better than San Diego's, yet Joseph Addai's season is about 3 times better than LTs. The running game, though, is meaningless. It's all about Peyton. He has been pressed, with two new receivers to break in. His o-line has lost its RG and LT to just general suckiness. And somehow, he kept them afloat with a nice little 4500 yards 33 td season. If Garcon just caught three more passes, they would be the first team in NFL history with 5 receivers to catch 50 balls. Regardless, they were just the fifth team to have four receivers gain 600 yards. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are now legitimate threats, and each of their catch rates increased (Garcon's dramatically) in the second half of the season. In totaly, it's Manning, Wayne and Clark that will win the games, though. Clark and Wayne are the best WR-TE combo in the league, and with Manning delivering the balls, there really is no reason to fear an offense that is anything it wants. They won a game with holding the balls for less than 15 minutes. They won a game in which their offense had to come back from 17 down (twice). The perfect Colts drive, though, is against Denver. Denver had cut it to 21-16, and the Colts got the ball at the 16 yard line with nine minutes left. Manning went on a 14 play, 86 yard drive that took 7 minutes and made the Broncos burn all of their timeouts, before throwing the clincher to Clark. That is the mark of a great offense. Ranking: 1
Defense: They still do all the things that drive Colts fans crazy, like give up countless third down conversions. They still give up points in the middle quarters, but there is no team that can throw the hammer down like them. They lead the league in fourth-quarter sacks and takeaways, and are second in fourth-quarter scoring defense. Mathis and Freeney are healthy and well-rested, ready to rush off the edge. Also, the biggest difference between this Colts team and earlier years is that they blitz more. Brackett and Clint Session will each come around 5 times a game. Also, they are much better at stopping the run, more sure-handed and fast. The last two games greatly inflated their points allowed. Make no mistake, this is a top-10 unit, if not top-5. Ranking: 3
Quarterback: He's the MVP. He's the best QB. He's the best player on the planet. 14 straight wins. 7 fourth-quarter comebacks. A passer rating of 111.9 in the fourth-quarter. He is the best normal QB, and best two-minute QB. He has scored TD drives with 45 second left in the half, and added a field goal when there was 22 seconds left in the half. It's not an argument. Ranking: 1
Coach: I love Jim Caldwell, but the Colts butchered that Jets game, and he hasn't always shown a daring mold to go for it, something the reserved Dungy did alot. He has shown a shrewd eye to clock management, but trusting a rookie coach in never fun. Ranking: 5
Interesting Note: The last two teams to win 14 straight games at any point in the season did not win the Super Bowl (2007 Pats and 2004 Steelers). But the three before that all did (2003 Pats, 1984 49ers and 1972 Dolphins).
Rankings Overview
Offense
1.) IND
2.) SD
3.) NE
4.) BAL
5.) CIN
6.) NYJ
Defense
1.) CIN
2.) NYJ
3.) IND
4.) BAL
5.) SD
6.) NE
Quarterback
1.) Peyton Manning, IND
2.) Phillip Rivers, SD
3.) Tom Brady, NE
4.) Carson Palmer, CIN
5.) Joe Flacco, BAL
6.) Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Coach
1.) Bill Belichick, NE
2.) John Harbaugh, BAL
3.) Norv Turner, SD
4.) Marvin Lewis, CIN
5.) Jim Caldwell, IND
6.) Rex Ryan, NYJ
