NFL 2020: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-10  (149-302)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-9  (202-298)

At this point it is so clear who the bottom two teams are, but in reality the Jags are really bad, but something a bit forgotten by just how bad the Jets are. Anyone relative to the Jets seems ok. And in reality the Jags, easily the worst looking team on paper heading into the year, is playing harder and keeping most games closer than the Jets. There is a chance they can snatch the #1 pick if they end up with the same record as the Jets - which would be awful for the Jets fans but probably more deserving for the Jags.

Tier II - The "Are you kidding me?" Uno

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-7-1  (213-270)

Man, that was just awful. I had such strong flashbacks to the last #1 pick QB the Bengals had, when Carson Palmer tore his knee. Granted, that was in a playoff game with a Bengals team fully on the rise. This is not that. This Bengals team is far away from that 2005 vintage. The Bengals though have some talent around them and now should be able to get a top pick around Burrow. I still believe in Joe, but it is clear he needs much better protection to avoid a David Carr-esque career.

Tier III - The "It still astounds me the NFC East is this bad, Pt.1" Duo

29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-7  (235-318)

28.) Washington Football Team  =  3-7  (200-227)

It is so staggering how bad the NFC East is as a division. Like the most likely out come is a 6-9-1 or 6-10 winner - and if anything that needs a team to go 3-3 to finish. These two are to me less likely. Getting Dalton back could bring some stability to the Cowboys. For the Football Team, the defense remains quite strong but they haven't been able to remain competitive with any team above .500 so far. In the end, it will come down to which team can steal division games and I think these two are just unlikely to do so.

Tier IV - The "Low-end Spoilers" Trio

27.) Denver Broncos  =  4-6  (206-267)

26.) Detroit Lions  =  4-6  (227-287)
25.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-7  (252-275)

None of these three teams is very good, with likely 6-10 or, at best 7-9, finishes ahead. The Broncos defense continuing to be decent in absence of Von Miller is still surprising, Lock is a mess, but there is enough talent around him that they could have a bright future. A lot will depend on guys like Jeudy. For the Lions, there a hyperactive team that can easily put their shutout behind them and play well... only to maybe get blasted again. The Falcons are just what they are - what's been most sad is a bit of a loss in Ryan's play of late. I'm more certain than ever that either Ryan or Stafford (or both) will be elsewhere next season. Hopefully for the love of Detroit, so will Matt Patricia.

Tier V - The "Seriously, this shit again NFC East" Uno

24.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-6-1  (220-254)
23.) New York Giants  =  3-7  (195-236)

Again, it's incredible how bad this division is. I think a lot of this NFC East reverence is not just a memories of a long-gone 1980s brilliance, but more that when NBC took over Sunday Night Football and turned that into the premier showcase, the NFC East had a nice run from 2006-2010, especially those first two years having both Wild Cards. Of course, that did not in any way last.... Alas, the Giants to me are the best team in this division, with a defense that plays at a competent level each week. If they can protect Jones and Jones can cut his turnovers at all, they should win the division. I don't know if we should credit Joe Judge too much for a rookie seaosn going 7-9, but that might be a great accomplishment.

Tier VI - The "High-end Spoilers" Quinto

22.) Carolina Panthers  =  4-7  (253-272)
21.) Minnesota Vikings  =  4-6  (264-278)
20.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-7  (260-273)
19.) Houston Texans  =  3-7  (227-272)

18.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-6  (238-234)

There's an outside shot for the Vikings or 49ers to make some late run, but in reality all five of these teams are too far out to reasonably expect playoffs. That's what happens when there is somehow just on 5-5 team after 10-games. The Panthers are among the more schizophrenic teams in the league. The Vikings could have theoretically been more in the race had they not blown that game, but they've done well to stabilize the defense. The Thielen covid issue is just the worst time. The Texans still have talent and Watson has remained great but they just had too big an issue to dive out of. For the 49ers, Mullens will remain key for them - it's a testament to their team building they are treading water with the spate of injuries they've faced.

Tier VII - The "Maybe it isn't too late?" Duo

17.) New England Patriots  =  4-6  (209-238)

16.) Chicago Bears  =  5-5  (191-209)

The Bears are the league's only 5-5 team which is hilarious. It may seem interesting, putting them one loss behind the Buccaneers for the last wild card spot (especially given they have the head-to-head win), but less so when you remember they were 5-1. The defense is still excellent however. For the Patriots the defense is a disaster, but Newton's growing rapport with Damiere Byrd and returning control of the offense gives them a chance to be a version of the Raiders - aim for significant ball control to pull games out. Both are good enough to either make a chase or ruin a lot of dreams.

Tier VIII - The "Fun but probably not great Wild Card teams" Trio

15.) Miami Dolphins  =  6-4  (264-202)

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-3  (238-261)
13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-4  (287-238)

The Dolphins got a little sobering dose of reality there - life is harder when you aren't pulling a return or defensive TD each game. The Tua benching is weird, but it's good they're going rihgt back to Tua with no issue. He is their future, even if they may not be a playoff team this year - they never were supposed to be one. For the Browns, they keep winning despite Mayfield doing next to nothing. While they are closing in on their first playoff season in eighteen years, the fact that Mayfield is such a little part of that is a problem. For the Cardinals, Murray has been fine and the team has good talent but it might be a year early in the NFL's best divsion.

Tier IX - The "More fun and maybe great Wild Card round teams" Duo

12.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-3  (272-265)
11.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-4  (286-276)

The Bills have been on a bye ever sinee their loss in the Hail Mary game, and return still a game up on the Dolphins. The Bills are a very good team but its beyond time waiting for their defense to fix itself. For the Raiders, we never expected the defense to fix itself. Both teams are being carried by offenses with QBs playing out of their minds at the moment. It's enough of a sample size to not think that will change. For Carr, he's been playing well for two years now, but his renewed sense of throwing deep is something to behold. Both teams have fairly easy schedules to take advantage of and truly should be playoff teams at this point.

Tier X - The "Ships passing in the night" Duo

10.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-4  (268-195)
9.) Tennessee Titans  =  7-3  (279-259)

That said, because of the presence of these two teams, very likely one of these four teams will not be in the playoffs (or the Colts drop out). The Ravens not making it are shocking, but that's what happens when you drop a few winnable games (this one, the Steelers game) and have a bunch of injuries and strange drops in play (more talking about guys like Hollywood Brown as much as Lamar). The Ravens are still by most metrics a top team but it's been a while since they looked like one. For the Titans, this was a good recover after a tough loss to the Colts, right ahead of another one. At this point we have to see this team as what it has been from teh second that Tannehill took over last year - a flexible play-action and smash-mouth offense that consistently puts up 24-34 points a game. That is still a very good play.

Tier XI - The "Middle tier NFC contenders" Trio

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-4  (320-253)

7.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-3  (318-287)

6.) Green Bay Packers  =  7-3  (308-258)

The Buccaneers have the best resume of these teams in this tier in terms of the number of blowout wins. Hell, they just had one eight days ago. Problem is they've also had more stinkers than either of these two (two poor losses, compared to one for the Seahawks and Packers). All three I think are still a little bit behind the two NFC teams I have above them. They have more weaknesses, be it the ongoing inability for Brady to look comfortable in that scheme, and of course the Seahawks and Packers overall defenses. What separates Seattle and Green Bay is they have bigger trump card - in that Wilson and Rodgers are operating at a different level than Brady is right now. It might just be that simple.

Tier XII - The "Just solid, good, teams" Trio

5.) Los Angeles Rams  =  7-3  (243-192)
4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  7-3  (276-208)
3.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-2  (295-222)

All three of these teams - even a Saints version without Brees for a few more games - are just good in all phases. They probably have lower ceilings than the three teams before them (though I would argue that is untrue for the Saints - they of the 38-3 win over Tampa), but they have very high floors. Rivers has settled down his game and is starting to build a rapport with TY Hilton. The Rams offense is very good, if a little too in love with jet sweeps and the like. It's really the defenses of these three that give me great hope and comfort. Brandon Staley (Rams) and Matt Eberflus (Colts) have coached great, great defenses around a few blue chip players (Donald & Ramsey, Buckner & Leonard). For the Saints, it took a while for their defense to come together but it certainly has the last five or so games. This is an area of play where I think each of these teams has an outside shot of a Super Bowl if their play can reach their ceiling - what helps is I think they can avoid upsets better than the three below them.

Tier XIII - The "Could we get a 16-0 v 15-1 Title Game?" Duo

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  10-0  (298-174)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  9-1  (321-214)

There's a bit of an undercurrent right now that the Steelers are a 10-0 team flying under the radar. I get that, mainly because until the last few weeks they've not always dominated teams. But now they have a point differential, and by far the best defense in the league, befitting a 10-0 team. That said, I do think we're sleeping a bit on the Chiefs as well - a defending champ that is rolling at 9-1, also with a good point differential, and an offense that can play out of its mind at its best. These two won't play in the regular season but we could be in line for an incredible playoff matchup between these two.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Miami Dolphins (6-4)  @  New York Jets (0-10)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Cleveland Browns (7-3)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) New York Giants (3-7)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Houston Texans (3-7)  @  Detroit Lions (4-6)  (THX - CBS)

12.) Carolina Panthers (4-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Washington Football Team (3-7)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-7)  (THX - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (6-4)  @  New England Patriots (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Seattle Seahawks (7-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Las Vegas Raider (6-4)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-7)  (1:00  - CBS)

7.) New Orleans Saints (8-2)  @  Denver Broncos (4-6)  (4:05 - FOX)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-6)  @  Los Angeles Rams (7-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers (3-7)  @  Buffalo Bills (7-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Chicago Bears (5-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (7-3)  (SNF - NBC)
3.) Tennessee Titans (7-3)  @  Indianapolis Colts (7-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

2.) Baltimore Ravens (6-4)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)  (THX - NBC)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)  (4:25 - CBS)

NFL 2020: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dreaming of Trevor" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-9  (121-268)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-8  (199-271)

Neither of these two teams is any good, and both nicely lost close games in their last time out. Both are squarely in the tanking for Trevor Lawrence mode at the moment - with the Jets able to do it right before needing to pick up a 5th year option for Sam Darnold that will be not picked up at the soonest possible moment. For the Jaguars too, Minshew-Mania was cute and all, but they need a real QB to have a chance. Fr both teams, the chance to have a real top-flight QB would be franchise-altering - but you have to worry the few times either team dipped their toe in the top of the 1st round pool it went off the rails quick (Sanchez, Darnold for the Jets; Bortles for the Jags)

Tier II - The "Well, we're settled at QB, right?" Trio

30.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-6-1  (204-250)
29.) Dallas Cowboys  =  2-7  (204-290)

28.) Houston Texans  =  2-7  (200-252)

None of these three teams are outright awful (assuming the Cowboys under Garrett Gilbert are somewhat able to hold their form) - at least compared to the two below them. The Bengals mainly need an OL and a rebuilt defense, but I trust in a future of Joe Burrow. The Cowboys still have the question around Dak, but this is shaping up as a repeat of 2015 - a 4-12 season that sandwhiched 12-4 and 13-3 seasons. Of course that isn't the case if they let Dak go. For the Texans this too is a right off. What is really threatening for them is the potential usurption of the franchise under the control of Jack Easterby, someone too loony for Belichick but is Baby Billying his way to control in Houston apparently. With Watson there still is a whole lot of potential but they have a chance to get out of the mess the O'Brien era left them in, and they are not starting on teh right path for that.

Tier III - The "Well, we're not settled at QB, right?" Duo

27.) Washington Football Team  =  2-7  (180-218)

26.) Denver Broncos  =  3-6  (186-254)

So these two teams probably have QB decisions to make. Drew Lock is just in year 2 (as is Dwayne Haskins, I guess) but was so bad last week against the Raiders it begs the question if he will never truly get better. Certainly both teams have to look hard at QB decisions this offseason - weather it is taking risks on a Darnold resurrection, or the draft. For the Football Team though, there is still a chance at the playoffs so they could argue they have bigger things to worry about but that seems so far away at this point.

Tier IV - The "Half Alive Sleepers" Quadro

25.) New York Giants  =  3-7  (195-236)
24.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-7  (233-272)
23.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-6  (238-234)

22.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-7  (226-245)

Again other than the Giants, with their NFC East benefit, none of these teams are playoff contenders but are all alive enough to play a close games. The Giants are a few turns away from actually being quite a bit better - close loses to the Steelers, Bears and Buccaneers - all three games turning on Daniel Jones turnovers. If he can solve that issue, the rest of the team is actually fairly decent around him. For the Panthers, their defense has really regressed as the season has gone on, and needs a lot of investment to bring it back. The 49ers are still having an unfortunate season from hell - the real decisions are anyway this offseason around their QB spot. For the Chargers, they may be having the most optimistic, fun 5-11 season ever. This season is terrible in terms of outcome, but Herbert looks like a solid long term starter, there is still talent across this lineup, and they'll end up with a good pick out of it.

Tier V - The "Soft underbelly of the NFC" Trio

21.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-5-1  (203-232)
20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-6  (243-251)
19.) Detroit Lions  =  4-5  (227-267)

The NFC has a lot of middling teams - these three define that. All three are good enough to pull of random wins (and again, the Eagles could still host a playoff game). The Falcons offense has still had great games - easily they could be the decider in who wins the NFC South between the Bucs and Saints. The Lions are not a good team, but they've already beaten the Cardinals and can pick off a top team again. All three have questions on the QB. For teh Falcons and Lions there is enough rumbling you expect one of the two to leave their respective long term homes. For the Eagles, you get the feeling they woudl look to do that with Wentz if they could - though I still reamain firm it is amazing how little the Eagles have given Wentz to work with - somewhat due to poor injury luck - since 2018.

Tier VI - The "Ships passing in the night" Quadro

18.) Chicago Bears  =  5-5  (191-209)
17.) Cleveland Browns  =  6-3  (216-244)

16.) Minnesota Vikings  =  4-5  (236-247)
15.) New England Patriots  =  4-5  (189-211)

The Bears and Browns started fast (technically, the Browns still are a fast-starter). But injuries and reduction in play of defenses adn running games are starting to expose issues at the QB position. On the other side, the Vikings and Patriots started slow but the rest of the team is starting to play better. For teh Vikings, it is their defense that was atrocious at the start slowly working in their new secondary players, coupled with a pass rush that is getting more aggressive as it gets more trusting of its DBs. For the Patriots, it is an OL coming together, and the growth of Jacoby Meyers as Newton's favorite target. Both might be too far off the pace in a normal season, but with three wild cards, both have reasonable shots of sneaking in if they can pull off a few wins against the weaker parts of their schedules.

Tier VII - The "Maybe they're real!?" Trio

14.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-3  (249-235)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  6-3  (255-241)
12.) Miami Dolphins  =  6-3  (251-182)

The AFC is a bizarre conference, with a 9-0 team, an 8-1 team, and then six different 3-loss teams. These are teh ones to me that I can foresee one of the two completely dropping off, one going 11-5 or so, and then one going about 9-7 or so and squeaking into the playoffs. Hard to predict which will be which. The Dolphins have a shockingly good point differential, though thats largely based on unsustainable defensive and special teams returns. The Raiders defense is still atrocious, but their offense is good enough at ball control to shorten games. For the Titans, it defintiely seems like their 5-0 honeymoon is over - a lot of that due to injures and a smoke and mirrors defense getting old, but Tannehill and Henry are good enough. If I guess, the Titans fall off, the Dolphins go 9-7 or so, and the Raiders ride an easy schedule to 11-5.

Tier VIII - The "Great NFC West Battle... for 2nd place?" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-3  (290-266)

10.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-3  (266-210)

They play this Thursday (quick preview of the next section - the primetime games are GREAT this week), and man if it is anything like the last game they played we are in for something beautiful. That game was the turning point of the season for Russell Wilson, who's doing a great Drew Brees circa 2012 impression these last few weeks (or Phil Rivers). For the Seahawks, it isn't just Wilson, but a defense that is not getting any better, that I can't get over with them ahead of the Cardinals who have shown an ability to win games they play poorly in, with an offense that is a bit more multi-dimensional than 'have Wilson do some shit.'

Tier IX - The "Let's just hang on!" Duo

9.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-3  (272-265)
8.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-2  (271-213)

Both of these teams are in turbulent times. Obviously the Saints have it a bit more acutely with Brees out for some amoutn of games. Winston is a decent backuip but he gives the Saints risks in the one place Brees hasn't for a long time - turnovers. Last year they excelled when Brees was out but that was with a perfect QB when trying to play low-risk football and let a talented roster take over. For the Bills, it is a defense that still hasn't risen up to close to their level last year. The oddest failing is the sudden drop-off in pass rush, something that Sean McDermott has rarely faced. You trust him to be able to manage it over time but ten weeks is a decent sample size. It is so weird to be at this stage and have full trust in their offense and Josh Allen but little on the otehr side. How quickly things change.

Tier X - The "Just solid teams" Trio

7.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-3  (216-168)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  7-3  (296-226)

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  6-3  (242-177)

The top-end of the league this season just has a lot of very good teams this year. These three are all solid on offense and defense, and are showing signs of 12-4 potential. The Rams are still a little unpredictable given how much of their early success was getting the four NFC East teams. That said, their defense is fairly undeniable at this point, and Goff with leads is fine. The Bucs are so tough to read since I don't know if any team has mixed so many poor performances with great ones. The defense still hasn't been great since Vea went down - one half against the Panthers doesn't change that. For the Colts, they've been a steady good so far, and I think there is the most confidence - but that confidence is a mix of a high floor with probably the lowest ceiling of the three.

Tier XI - The "Let's not overreact!" Uno

4.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-3  (244-165)

Do you know who the Ravens remind me of? So many teams in the last 15 years or so that had great regular seasons one year, lost early in the playoffs, came back and had "middling" seasons and then in the end were fine. Be it the 2005 Steelers, 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens, or even the 2019 Chiefs. People are overreacting, dissecting an offense that isn't a world-beater but still fairly good, and a defense that has remained great. They still have an efficient offense. My worry is the injuries on offense - particularly to the OL and now top blockign TE, hamper them. That said, this is the script so many have faced - and a 'down' year still looks to be 11-5 with a 433-293 point differential.

Tier XII - The "Flawed but Great" Duo

3.) Green Bay Packers  =  7-2  (277-224)

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-0  (271-171)

Aside from my team at #1, to me these two have the highest ceiling of any team (maybe you can argue the Cubs). The Packers have it with the highest ceiling offense. Aside from that windy disaster against Jacksonville and the dreadful game against Tampa, this has been one of the most efficient, consistent offenses in a while - maybe second or third in Rodgers career behind 2011 and 2014. They are finally healthy and have such high upside. For the Steelers, it is the defense, with an offense that can score 30 fairly easily. What could hurt them at some point is their abject inability to run the ball, but Roethlisberger's quick offense has picked it up as a quasi-run game anyway.

Tier XIII - The "Are we sleeping on the Champs?" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-1  (286-183)

They are still the best - but somehow under the radar. Mahomes isn't, he of the 25 TDs and 1 INT. Aside from teh low INT number he actually has been no better than either of the past two seasons, but that still leaves him as the best QB in football in an offense perfect for him. What is more under the radar is the strength and consistency of the defense. It doesn't always show in the numbers as Spagnuolo has a proclivity to get blitz happy which gives up some big plays, but they're also coasting to some degree. Starting this week with teh revenge game against the Raiders, the Chiefs have the chance to have a pretty special 2020 season.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (7-3),  Chicago Bears (5-5), New York Giants (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (4-6)

14.) New York Jets (0-9)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1)  @  Washington Football Team (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)  (4:05 - CBS)

11.) Dallas Cowboys (2-7)  @  Minnesota Vikings (4-5)  (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Miami Dolphins (2-7)  @  Denver Broncos (3-6)  (4:05 - CBS)

9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1)  @  Cleveland Browns (6-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Detroit Lions (4-5)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) New England Patriots (4-5)  @  Houston Texans (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Tennessee Titans (6-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

4.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)  (SNF - NBC)

3.) Green Bay Packers (7-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (6-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (6-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

1.) Arizona Cardinals (6-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-3)  (TNF - FOX)

NFL 2020: Week 9 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tanking for Trevor" Trio

32.) New York Jets  =  0-9  (121-268)

31.) Dallas Cowboys  =  2-7  (204-290)

30.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-7  (179-247)

I'm throwing the Cowboys into the Tank for Trevor category because with Dak an impending Free Agent, I can easily see Jones go ga-ga for Trevor Lawrence (or Justin Fields), especially as the Cowboys look so headed for 3-13. The Jags seemingly are better than their record, but it is funny the team we all that was closest to tanking before the season went out and won their first game and then lost all their next games. The Jets are so laughably bad that their close loss to New England says a lot more about New England. Gase is defintiely DOA - I'm starting to think Darnold is too more for his durability concerns than play at this point.

Tier II - The"Just Hang In There" Quinto

29.) Denver Broncos  =  3-5  (174-217)
28.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  2-5-1  (194-214)

27.) Washington Football Team  =  2-6  (153-188)

26.) Houston Texans  =  2-6  (193-242)

25.) New York Giants  =  2-7  (168-219)

Ok, there's a lot of below-mediocre but not purely bad teams (and yes, I'm including the Giants in this - a team whose only wins came against one of the other teams in the group). The Broncos haven't really gotten any better with Drew Lock returning but I still somewhat believe in him long term and that defense is still fairly talented. The Bengals, I definitely believe in Joe Burrow, who just needs help. Some of the younger weapons are decent around him but the OL is a mess. The Football Team needs a QB, but the defense also needs to be more consistent game to game. The Texans still have some talent but man they need some solidarity in their leadership. The Giants have lost a slew of close games. Daniel Jones's turnovers are a problem but aside from that I do think they are building a decent core. OL is a problem there as well. To be honest OL concerns is the common theme across all these teams.

Tier III - The "Is it Time to Cut Bait" Duo

24.) Detroit Lions  =  3-5  (197-240)
23.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-6  (243-251)

The Lions drafted Matthew Stafford in 2009. The Falcons drafted Matt Ryan in 2008. Somehow Stafford is three years younger than Ryan, but both Matts have been there for a decade-plus now. Both are fine QBs, capable of winning a reasonable amount of games with drek around them, and even 10-11 games with good talent around them. The Lions and Falcons are far away from having good talent around them. At some point both teams need to rebuild, and I'm curious if either pull the trigger this offseason. It will take a lot of mental fortitude to do so, and may incur a big cap penalty, but 13 or 12 years is a long time to have let this run.

Tier IV - The "Honestly, it's Sad" Uno

22.) New England Patriots  =  3-5  (166-194)

Yeah, them being excited for beating an 0-8 and laughably bad Jets team with a 51-yard field goal at the gun is not what I expected 2020 Patriots to be about. The Patriots are going through such a turn now with injuries, and opt-outs. Cam is fighting for his life with less to throw to than Brady had last year. The defense has fallen off a complete cliff which I have to admit is a bit shocking. Unless we get SuperCam this team is done and the playoff streak is over easily.

Tier V - The "Man, 2021 could be Fun" Trio

21.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-6  (205-216)
20.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-6  (210-216)
19.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-5  (225-207)

All three teams are likely not playoff bound in 2020, the Chargers and Panthers having lost a lot of razor close games, and the 49ers having lost just everyone on their team. That said, both teams are still well positioned for next season. Specifically hte Chargers - assuming Herbert maintains this level of play going forward. Herbert has been great, and the team has been good, but they've somehow managed to blow game after game. What it really reminds me of in a way is the 2016 Eagles, a very talented team that lost a slew of close games but put it together in Year 2. For the Panthers and 49ers, there are larger question marks given the long-term viability questions around Bridgewater and Garoppolo, but the rest of those teams are talented and still fairly young. If there are any teams worth following despite their sub-500 record and completely blocked playoff prospects, these are the three.

Tier VI - The "The Ceiling is the Floor" Duo

18.) Chicago Bears  =  5-4  (178-190)

17.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-3  (206-237)

In a normal season, I doubt these two are normal playoff competitors. However, with the presence of an extra Wild Card spot, and because of how up-and-down this season seems like, they both have a chance. The Bears need their defense to overplay itself to have a chance now that Nick Foles is no longer overcoming the woeful OL. For the Browns, it isn't the OL, it is a combination of Mayfield needing to be more consistent, and their offense fidning ways to stay ahead without Odell Beckham, Jr. The defense's talent is woefully underperforming as well aside from Myles Garrett. That team being on pace to give up 474 points - even counting this being an abnormal scoring year - is shocking.

Tier VII - The "Maybe it's not Too Late" Duo

16.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  3-4-1  (186-205)

15.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-5  (217-234)

I probably shouldn't have the Eagles in this spot as they are the likely NFC East winner at this point. Then again, have you seen their schedule? They get to at least 5 wins just playing out the NFC East string, but if they win the division at 5-10-1 I actually do think we get reform on division winners being at lesat guaranteed a home game. The Vikings are likely not playoff competitors, but their schedule gets notably easier the second half of the seaosn. A 9-7 finish is not out of the question at all for a team whose defense is getting better game after game. A team starting 1-5 and making the playoffs isn't even that notable - with the Colts doing it just two years ago. Chances are each team is what it is - the Vikings destined for 8-8, and the Eagles destined to be the most laughable division winner ever.

Tier VIII - The "Fun, Flawed Contenders" Quadro

14.) Miami Dolphins  =  5-3  (222-161)
13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-3  (234-180)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-3  (218-229)
11.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-2  (232-201)

There's a lot of teams with two or three losses - in my memory it seems like there are more than normal (have no idea if that is true). These four to me are all combinations of high-variance, potential great games but also potential blowouts too. The Dolphins point differential is surprisingly good but its being weighted up by that weird 49ers blowout and a slew of return TDs. The Raiders probably have the highest floor of these teams because their offense is basically 'high-floor' in a bottom and can shorten games enough for the defensive deficiencies to not matter as much. The Titans have the highest ceiling but their smoke and mirrors defense is largely getting exposed this year with their glaring lack of pass rush when they don't blitz.

Tier IX - The "Fun, Less Flawed Contenders" Quadro

10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-2  (274-243)
9.) Los Angeles Rams  =  5-3  (193-152)

8.) Buffalo Bills  =  7-2  (242-233)

7.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-2  (253-204)

Here we have two high ceiling teams in Seattle and Green Bay, who've shown they can be blown out (and I would call Seattle's loss to the Bills a blowout), and two high-floor teams in the Rams and Bills, both of whom have been picked off by worse teams on their down days. All four teams should make the playoffs at this point - though with the rams the fact they are 1-3 outside the NFC does scare me. The defense that Brandon Staley has built is quite commendable however. The Packers defense getting this much worse is a bit mysterious, espeically with a good unit on paper. The Seahawks are just a disaster on that side of the ball, and they'll need to improve their turnover rate to keep this up. The Wilson offense alone however should get them to 10 wins anyway. The Bills are an interesting team on how quickly they've flipped to an offense first juggernaut. Their dropoff on defense is even stranger than the Patriots. There's games like last week where they did a great job on one of the best offenses for 30 minutes, but those runs of great play are too short and too infrequent.

Tier X - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 1" Duo

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-3  (250-203)

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  5-3  (208-160)

My next four teams had QBs drafted in 2000, 2004, 2004 and 2001. Yeah, I don't get it either (let's remember in that last batch was a guy drafted in 2005). They're at all various levels of success. The Bucs have had good play but Brady's play under pressure is still incredibly worrisome, especially if their OL is the way it was the last two games. Their defense hasn't been the same against the run since Vita Vea went out. For the Colts, Rivers stats were mostly fine until that awful game against the Ravens. Their defense is stout, and consistent but the offense needs some jump - especially if TY Hilton doesn't come back to life. The Colts and Bucs are both defense first teams with good upside on offense - if anything I think the Colts floor is higher, mainyl because their OL is better,

Tier XI - The "Old Man QB, Pt. 2" Duo

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  8-0  (235-161)

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  6-2  (244-200)

And now we get the other two old QBs, who personally I think are playing better. There's been a lot of talk about Roethlisberger not throwing deep, but to me that's a factor of him throwing quick. They've made a concerted effort to throw quick and it has mostly worked. The defense is still very good. Yes, it is troubling they've had challenges putting away bad teams (be it even the Giants all the way back in Week 1) but 8-0 without playing their best in many games says a lot. For the Saints, this isn't so much about trusting Brees has effectively come back to life, but rather their defense has. With Davenport back and Marcus Williams and Marshon Lattimore playing at level again, that defense can be the unit that was so good last year. Their offense isn't really any worse than it was in 2019 - their defense just needed to catch up to that level.

Tier XII - The "Back in the Saddle Again" Duo

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  6-2  (227-142)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  8-1  (286-183)

Yeah, I still think these are the two best teams - even if the Ravens are very much behind the curve for even winning their division. The Ravens have a great point differential, with a great defense, despite their offense not nearly being as good this year. I don't think there is anything structurally wrong with them aside from a higher than normal turnover rate - see their game against the Steelers which they easily should have won until their turnovers. For the Chiefs, well what is to say. They played a 'C' game against a decent team and won. Mahomes is quietly having a stupid good season. The defense has remained strong throughout even with a few injuires starting to arise. The Chiefs are the league's best team, and truly in my mind it isn't really that close at the moment.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: New York Jets (0-9), Dallas Cowboys (2-7), Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)., Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

14.) Washington Football Team (2-6)  @  Detroit Lions (3-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

13.) Houston Texans (2-6)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)  (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Minnesota Vikings (3-6)  @  Chicago Bears (5-4)  (MNF - ESPN)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (6-2)  @  New England Patriots (3-5)  (SNF - NBC)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-6)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)

7.) Denver Broncos (3-5)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-5)  @  New Orleans Saints (6-2)  (4:25 - FOX)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)  @  New York Giants (2-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Buffalo Bills (7-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (5-3)  (4:05 - CBS)

2.) Seattle Seahawks (6-2)  @  Los Angeles Rams (5-3)  (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Indianapolis Colts (5-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (6-2)  (TNF - FOX)

Four Long Years

I can still remember the catatonic state of mind that was November 8th, 2016. I entered the day so ready to see Trump lose. I was never a huge Hillary fan, but saw a trailblazer in her quest to be the first woman President, and saw an orange-faced maniac, idiot fool on the other side. It seemed so obvious. It wasn't.

Those agonizing hours, with the early start of returns in the rust belt seeming fallow. Soon it would get worse and worse of a nightmare, Trump's slow win moving to an eventual inevitability. Even when it was more and more assured - despite CNN's best efforts to give us hope - I couldn't believe it. Forget his politics. I didn't care that it was a republican winning - but moreso a racist, sexist, misogynist, idiot. That last one was the most pressing. We've had racist President's before. We've had womanizers. We've had horrible people/ We never had a lazy idiot who never wanted the job.

I remember the dark feeling that hung over the air in the days following his election. I remember having a meeting with a client - a mother of two, half-latina American. She was almost in tears. I remember hoping, just hoping, we understimate Donald Trump - we didn't.

The last four years have been an embarrassment. From the early days of his presidency with the Muslim Travel Ban. From the latter stages with his abhorrent handling of the pandemic. For all the madness in between - the "Cofveve"s, the slew of embarrassments in the global stage (him pushing past presidents of other nations). The weird love of dictators - the way he took a susceptible part of America and radicalized it. Trump was a disaster from the start, and worse of all he was our disaster. Even at that point, more people in America disliked him than liked him but that didn't matter - he was our President. 

Four years later, we vote him our. As so many people have said, this is a "Welcome Back" for our country, an opportunity to repent for our ills of electing an idiot, and beg for forgiveness to be a leader. I know the next four years aren't going to be perfect. Biden will already enter a political environment with staunch opposition from the Senate, from divisions within his own party of how far to push legislation. It won't be perfect - the Tea Party 2.0 is likely around the corner, putting aside any sort of Trump TV type movement. The fight isn't done, but the initial battle is over.

Trump represented everything wrong with America - the unearned brashness and attitude, the myopic nationalistic point of view, the stupid fake machismio. All of it was just the worst. The last four years was a series of idiocy that started right from the top. Add to it evil as well - the bans, the children in cages, the stripping away of women's and LGBTQ rights. The stoking of tensions on racial violence and police violence. All of it was just an unending, unbearable mix that reflected so poorly on America.

That all ends now. At the top we have a decent, smart, strong, generous man. He isn't perfect - sure, but he's so immeasurably better. Joe Biden is my President; Kamala Harris is my Vice President. After four long years it is just great to be respectful for and proud of my President again.

We've lived four years in some never ending horror show. A lot went well in my personal life in the Trump era - from buying an apartment, changing jobs, growing older - series of vacations and memories. But I know I'm lucky to have been out of the line of attack for so much of the Trump administration's series of horrors. I know people who've directly been impacted. I've seen the images of kids in cages, of violence in teh streets, of nazis holding tiki-torches, of his borish, fat puddling mass of shit on screen over and over again. Enough is enough - and I'm so glad my country felt the same.

A weight has been lifted on all of us. The USA can go back to being a leader and have an equal seat at the table. We can quickly undo a lot of the issues of the worst impulses of the Trump campaign - the feckless decisions to pull out of various climate accords or roll-back regulations. All of that gone. We took a weird turn for four years, but we can proceed further into the 21st Century with pride of what America is. We survived this four year incarceration in our own homes, awoke from our never ending nightmare. It took four years but we've made it to the other side.

Kershaw and Dodgers

Just a month after writing a very similar piece about how another blue-clad team with legendary players finally climbed the mountaintop to win, I'm doing it again. Just like the Lightning, the Dodgers have been pre-ordained for years as a World Series Winner to be. The problem was they were never shedding that 'to be' aspect. Until now, and I couldn't be happier for a team, and most certainly their star pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.

I've long said that I do truly wish every all-time great type player wins at least one ring. I don't ask for any more than that. I'll finish my sports fan life being content that Alex Ovechkin won his one ring. That Aaron Rodgers has his one ring (even if he did it in reverse, doing it right at the start). Even the fact that A-Rod got his ring finally. All of that is good. The 'you never won a ring' argument is the single most detrimental argument infecting the sports world today. It's been a bane to our existence from day one. And yes, I am slightly biased having to wade through years of these stupidly treacherous waters being a Peyton Manning fan/.

But truly, outside of Manning, no one exemplified the weight of this curse quite like Kershaw. The images, year after year, of a depressed Kershaw staring at the sky or down at the ground, distressed, mystified, losing. Year after year. Early on in his brilliant, legendary career, it was shocking losses to the Cardinals - the first few evidences before it became an all out postseason legend. Then it was 2017, when the Astros ate him alive, in a game we now know will have the spectre of cheating over it.

**I do need to pause on this for a second. I've so rarely written about the Astros issue because I don't know what to say. I will though state that it pains me a lot that the Astros are the cause of so much pain and hurt for Kershaw - and a lot of that Dodgers team. Kershaw in Game 1 of 2017 was one of the most magical performacnes I've seen. Him in Game 5 was one of the most distressing. I don't like the fact that my teams misdeeds tarnished the legacy of Kershaw for a while.**

The worst was last year. The 2019 Dodgers were a brilliant team - 106-56 with an even better pythag record. Did they got bit, with Kershaw giving up the game tying runs after entering in the 7th with a 3-1 lead. Yes, it was Joe Kelly, trusted for some stupid reason, who gave up the Grand Slam that ended it, but Kershaw blew it. It was the lowest-of-lows - again much like Tampa who had their own record setting season last year felled in the first round.

If that was the Dodgers low, it didn't effect them at all. This whole postseason has been a coronation for a truly great team - one that is better around its precocious pitcher than it ever was before. In 2017 they needed Kershaw to be the undisputed ace. By 2020, they need him to just be good - which he plainly still is with a dominant playoffs. 

It's astounding how similar this Dodgers team is to the one that lost to Houston in 2017. Aside from Mookie (which is a whole other issue), the Dodgers lineup and staff reads so similar to that team. Kershaw, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Turner, Taylor; all of those guys playing a big part on both teams. Hell, even the guys we don't think of, like Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes were around that time. That's another similarity to Tampa - they never panicked, never traded the core, never broke it up. They waited it out and it finally coalesced perfectly.

Back to Kershaw, he is the best pitcher of his generation. Sure there was a time when Scherzer seem poised to challenge him, but his arm issues have to be distressing at this point. Then there's guys like Verlander, but his mid-career malaise is something Kershaw never came close to approaching. Kershaw has been so good for so long, his last four years, a time when he's been often noted as declining and past his prime and 'not an ace' read-out like this on a per-162 pace:

19-6, with a 2.64 ERA and a 226-41 K-BB

In his worst, Kershaw is one of the best. Yes, he's never been as great in the playoffs, but there's two large factors to that: a surprisingly high HR% (probably a fluke) and a shockingly high number of runners left on that the bullpen allowed (somewhat his fault, but random). He also has a bunch of gems and great starts. He is the all-time leader in postseason strikeouts. Yes, that is a record more about how good the Dodgers have been, but its a record nonetheless.

Clayton Kershaw has his ring - and there's rarely been a person, Kershaw being a noted uber-charitable guy in his private life, who deserved it more. But the team deserves it all as well. They are an inherently likable bunch, with the most 'unappealing' aspect probably being that weird spaced-out routine Bellinger has. Their an eminently likable team, just as they were in 2017 when they lost to Houston or 2018 when they lost to Boston. Just glad it was finally their time.

It's weird that after all the talk of asterisks, the three sports that have handed out trophies, all in neutral sites (if not outright bubbles), were all one by dominant teams. The Lightning and Dodgers are so similar in their year-in-year-out excellence finally being rewarded with a win. For the Lakers, it was a team that was gerat all year long. Instead of the circumstances making these great teams more susceptible to losing, it made them stronger. They combined to only go to one Game 7 (the Dodgers comeback from 1-3 down). They were all great teams so deserving of their wins.

The 2020 Dodgers are one of the all time teams. Because of the circumstances they probably won't get that credit, but they played the season on a 116-win pace. They romped through the playoffs. They may end up with a good five or so Hall of Famers (Kershaw is the only lock, but Betts is easily on the track, and Bellinger, Seager, Buehler all may end up that way many years from now). But nothing in the end will remain with me than Kershaw. That slow walk he went on after the final strikeout, lazily going out to the mound to celebrate, soaking in every moment of the win - the baseball version of Dirk's dash in tears down the hallway in 2011. The joy in his face lifting that trophy, lifting his kids. All of it was so pure, a beautiful blue ray of light in this darkest of years. Kershaw has his ring. 2020 has been awful for many reasons but for one day all was right in the (sports) world.

NFL 2020: Week 8 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "New York, New York" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  0-7  (85-203)

31.) New York Giants  =  1-6  (122-174)

Tier II - The "Let's Just Talk About What Comes Next" Trio

30.) Dallas Cowboys  =  2-5  (176-243)

29.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-6  (154-220)

28.) Minnesota Vikings  =  1-5  (155-192)

The "Maybe a Little Spoiler-y" Trio

27.) Denver Broncos  =  2-4  (116-153)

26.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  1-5-1  (163-194)
25.) Atlanta Falcons  =  1-6  (184-207)

The "Definitely a Little Spoiler-y" Trio

24.) Washington Football Team  =  2-5  (133-165)

23.) Houston Texans  =  1-6  (166-217)
22.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  2-4  (149-154)

The "Super Bowl LII was in Another Lifetime" Duo

21.) New England Patriots  =  2-4  (115-143)
20.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  2-4-1  (163-196)

The "Mid-Tier NFC Fighters" Duo

19.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-4  (162-168)

18.) Detroit Lions  =  3-3  (156-165)

The "Soft Underbelly of the NFL"

17.) Cleveland Browns  =  5-2  (200-221)

16.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  3-3  (171-197)
15.) Miami Dolphins  =  3-3  (160-113)
14.) New Orleans Saints  =  4-2  (180-174)
13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-2  (203-146)

The "Maybe we all Wrote them Off Too Soon" Uno

12.) San Francisco 49ers  =  4-3  (181-136)

The "Maybe there's Something Here!" Trio

11.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-2  (174-178)
10.) XXXXXX

9.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-1  (188-153)

The "Different Side of the Same Coin" Duo

8.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-2  (157-115)

7.) Seattle Seahawks  =  5-1  (203-172)

The "Top of the NFC" Trio

6.) XXXXXXXXX

5.) Green Bay Packers  =  5-1  (197-159)

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-2  (222-142)

The "Holy Damn the AFC" Trio

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  6-0  (183-118)

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  5-1  (179-104)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  6-1  (218-143)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:

Byes: Arizona Cardinals (5-2), Washington Football Team (2-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6), Houston Texans (1-6)

14.) Atlanta Falcons (1-6)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-4)  (TNF - FOX)

13.) Tennessee Titans (5-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (1-6)  (1:00 CBS)

12.) New York Jets (0-7)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)  @  New York Giants (1-6)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Man, there's a lot of bad teams" Weekend, 

10.) Minnesota Vikings (1-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (6-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Dallas Cowboys (2-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)  (SNF - NBC)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)  @  Denver Broncos (2-4)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Mid Divisional Games isn't too Bad this Week" Sunday, 

7.) New England Patriots (2-4)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Belichick's Last Stand" Sunday, 

6.) Indianapolis Colts (4-2)  @  Detroit Lions (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

5.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Sue Me, these look OK" Sunday,  

4/) Los Angeles Rams (X-X)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) New Orleans Saints (4-2)  @  Chicago Bears (X-X)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Sue Me, these look Really Good!" Sunday, 

2.) San Francisco 49ers (4-3)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "The best NFC Divisional Rivalry of the 2010s lives!" Sunday, 

1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0)  @  Baltimore Ravens (6-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "The best Rivalry Really Lives" Sunday, 

Rafa

I've written more glowing paeans to Rafael Nadal than I can count over the years. My first year writing this blog was in the fall of 2009, right after Nadal returned, in slightly hollow form, from his first significant knee injury - the one that kept him out of defending his 2009 Wimbledon crown. At the time, Nadal was the #2 (barely) player in the world, and 23 years of age, but with hurt knees, something many predicted would hamper him and ultimatley end his career early. In the first major since this blog started, the 2010 Australian Open, he was again just not the same, bowing out meekly to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals. Roger Federer won the event, his 16th - extending his lead to 10 over Nadal.

Ten years later, they are tied at 20. Nadal's knees did hamper him, at various times. First it was the second half of 2012, then it was the same in 2016. Nadal went through a rough period in 2015-2016. Somehow he came out of it, turning 30 in the interim, to win six more majors in his 30s, matching Federer at what would have seen an absurd number, and doing it by pummeling his now arguably largest rival, winning a French Open without dropping a set for a 4th time.

The lives and legacies of the Big-3 is such an incomparable story, one that is still very much being written, but let's pause for a second to laser focus on Nadal. On the same day the NBA crowned LeBron again, amplifying his GOAT claims even louder, another prodigy who exceeded everyone's highest expectations made his claim for GOAT as well. It truly is hard to believe that Rafael Nadal won a 20th major, won a 13th French Open, extended his career record to 100-2 at Roland Garros, and did it all in such a dominant way.

When Nadal got to 9 French Opens in 2014 (14 slams overall), I wrote a piece called "Rafael Nadal - Reaching the Highest of Expectations." I never would have imagined that he would win four more of those, including two more without dropping a set. Nadal on clay has so warped our perception of athletic dominance. His record at the French Open is so hilarious, it is hard to put into words. There's so many ways to say it. Last year I mentioned his run, which included just two dropped sets, was only his seventh best French Open run - well, now that's his eighth best. He has two separate four-year win streaks that started twelve years apart - oh and of course had a five-year win streak in the middle of it as well. When his career started, Pete Sampras was the record holder in slams at 14. Forget now that three people have all easily passed that, but Nadal is closing to matching the hold record JUST AT THE FRENCH OPEN.

It's hard to explain truly why Nadal is so indescribably good on clay, especially since he's a radically different player in 2020 - or even in this latest four-year run from 2017-2020 compared to his first four-year run in 2005-2008. Early Nadal was incredibly quick, could hit ridiculous defensive shots, passed with brilliant ease. He was the perfect clay court player - and it showed with what I still think was his most dominant run in 2008 (capped it off beating Federer 6-1  6-3  6-0 in the final). 2020 Nadal isn't as quick, is far more offensive than he used to be, has changed his game so much - yet he's as good on clay. It doesn't make sense, but nothing Nadal has done in his career on clay is the stuff of human comprehension.

In the larger sense, Nadal catching Federer could only happen at the French Open. He first flew on the scene in 2014, when he was 17 years old and beat Federer in Miami soon after Federer was crowned World #1 for the first time. That was on a hard court, mind you. His ridiculous clay court performances was the only thing keeping the sport from being so ultimately ended by Federer's dominance in 2005-2008. Little by little he improved and expanded his game to conquer grass and then hard court - culminating in his 2010 run winning the French (without dropping a set), Wimbledon and US Open (his first, completing a career grand slam) becoming the first, and so far only, player to win majors on three surfaces in one year.

He did all of that - Nadal's career even if he never set foot on clay makes him one of the 10-15 best players of all time (7 majors, 8 more times as a finalist, oodles of Masters wins). Add to that his clay career and you get basically the co-GOAT. Nadal's early career was defined as Federer's foil - hard-charging, muscular lefty vs a lithe, god-like righty. This crescendo'd in their 2008 Wimbledon - still called by many the Greatest Match ever. In that moment, who could have guessed twelve years later Federer would have won eight more majors, and somehow not be seen as the clear greatest ever.

Nadal reaching 20 is not the end of the story, but for one day, all seemed right in the sports world. In this craziest of crazy sports years, ultimately the closest thing to a lock - Nadal on Clay - held firm. It was never in doubt. Rafa has combined a perfectly enthralling, suspenseful career on non-clay with a mesmerizingly perfect one on clay, and left us all with 20 majors, scores of memories and highlights, and still with potentially more to come.

Long Live Eddie

I don't know why I'm so upset that Eddie Van Halen died. Obviously, part of it is the normal sad feeling when anyone you care about dies. I've never met him, never would have, but loved his music and what he represents. Also, I'm sad because I know his loss hurts a lot of people in a very meaningful way. But then again, Eddie was likely done making music - seemingly happy these last five years, even when he was healthy, do live his life away from the spotlight rather than tour again. Eddie has made a lasting impact that will never be forgotten. But in that lies the reason - I wanted to make sure that impact never gets forgotten. Judging by the outpouring of love, emotion, tributes and honor towards his way, it is clear it never will.

Van Halen was not the most popular band ever. They haven't had the staying power either in the tangible (touring, recording songs) or the intangible (lasting impact on the music world). Largely this was their own doing, a complete resistance to stability in their make-up and multiple periods of darkness - generally driven by Eddie's alternating substance issues or medical concerns.

That said, they will always matter in the legacy of music because Eddie matters in that legacy. I was wondering how much that would bubble up to the surface in the event of his death. We got to see it first hand, and while it is recognizing a truly sad moment, the loss of someone so gifted, so legendary, the outpouring was instant and impressive.

It came from other rockstars, be it his contemporaries, his imitators, or even the people that came before him, acknowledging this brash youngster was every bit their equal or greater (see the tributes from Pete Townsend or Jimmy Page even). There were tributes from pop stars, country music stars, R&B stars. Everyone always noting not just the music and their singular popularity throughout the 1980s, but his singular impact and meaning on the music landscape.

You can count on one hand the number of guitarists that have so profoundly changed the game. The throughline probably goes some pre-hsitoric (in music terms) people that invented the instrument, through to a Chuck Berry type, through to Jimi Hendrix, with Eddie next. That's not to say there weren't better players in teh interim. I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough nor care enough to engage in that debate. But I don't think anyone since Hendrix had Eddie's level of impact.

It's not just the tapping - which Eddie himself will admit he didn't 'invent' but took to just a different level. It's also the brown sound - a perfect guitar sound that was built off of a decade of tinkering and mechanics that was nuanced enough for Popular Mechanics to do a long profile about it (one of the many old EVH interviews that were brought out to light yesterday). It's was his peerless ability to blend technical brilliance with an old-school ability to craft bluesy riffs. It was his musical writing ability. Eddie was a muscial genius as much as a great guitarist - and that is why the word 'Genius' kept coming up.

I'm sure there is a technical definition of what makes a genius, but the best way for me to explain was once watching Eddie to a 55-min sitdown interview at the Smithsonian. At multiple points the interviewer asked him a question that led him to a technical point (the tapping, his 'Frankenstrat' guitar build), and Eddie at a loss for words just picked up the guitar and showed us. He communicates, speaks, and thinks music through that instruent. He was truly the 'mozart of guitar.'

To talk about my connection to Van Halen for a second - obviously I was much too young to know their glory at the time. That said, they were the first rock band I ever loved. Not sure what the entry point was, but much like kids in the late 70s, I too was slack-jawed the first time I heard Eruption, not understanding how (a) that was a guitar and (b) that was only one guitar. Just like most people, I loved Van Halen because I loved listening to Eddie Van Halen play guitar.

Their music toes the line so perfectly between radio/arena rock - namely better versions of the imitators they spawned (hair metal) and the blues and musically brilliant base of a Led Zep or Sabbath. They were perfect. Those first six, and more acutely first four, albums in the DLR era are about as perfect a run a rock band can have. The musicianship, spearheaded by Eddie but let's throw Alex a bone on drums, was so exquisite but tightly packed into these shorter songs. The longest Van Halen song in the DLR era was 'Fools', a 5:56 track that also sounds as close as they would get to a Led Zep type vibe, but they packed enough theatrics, riffs and beauty into the short songs anyway.

Still I think Van Halen would be the one band I would pick if you told me I could only listen to one group for the rest of my life. The Beatles, and only because of sheer volume, would close, but what they were able to do is still incredible, and Eddie was the large driving force. 

He was also the equalizer, the reason Van Halen commanded and ensured respect. For people who turned their nose at 'arena' or 'glam' rock - well, they still had Eddie. For the punk lovers, well VH still had Eddie (notably we got glowing tributes from people like Tom Morello and the remaining members of Alice in Chains). For the true metal-heads, well they have Eddie - see Metallica's tribute, or even them covering "Running With the Devil" at one of their recent shows. For damn Michael Jackson fans, well they have the guy who played the perfect solo on Beat It. Eddie was everything.

I'm still somewhat emotional more out of shock, and that there is a finality to this. There will be no more tours. No more last fling album. No tour with both Dave and Sammy. Most of that was probably never in the cards anyway - especially the last one - but man was hope nice.

That said, somehow I got to see them twice. The first time was in 2007, when they toured with David Lee Roth for the first time since 1984. Maybe even a year prior to that, it seemed like that would never come. In the end there were three tours with Roth, and an album that gets better with age. The final tour in 2015 I went to. They played at an outdoor venue in New Jersey that I'd been to dozens of times and never found it so packed, with an audience more enthralled, than we were that day.

Eddie was a luminary, a genius, a person so dedicated to the craft (even to his detriment). He was a star, he was a musician at heart, someone who loved making, innovating, practicing and toying around in a way that will never leave us. He was my music hero, someone who literally made me thing "How?" so many times when listening to his music. His memory will never fade. Eddie's legacy is more alive today than it was before, and hopefully that lasts a long, long tine.

NFL 2020: Week 4 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-3 (0-2-1) Teams

8.) New York Jets  =  37-94

7.) New York Giants  =  38-79

6.) Denver Broncos  =  45-70

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  66-74

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  75-102

3.) Houston Texans  =  57-95

2.) Atlanta Falcons  =  90-108

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  59-87

Ranking the 1-2 Teams

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  70-84

7.) Washington Football Team  =  62-81

6.) Detroit Lions  =  70-92

5.) Carolina Panthers  =  68-81

4.) Miami Dolphins  =  70-65

3.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  52-57

2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  88-97

1.) New Orleans Saints  =  88-94

Ranking the 2-1 Teams

9.) Cleveland Browns  =  75-88

8.) Arizona Cardinals  =  77-61

7.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  88-90

6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  82-61

5.) San Francisco 49ers  =  87-46

4.) New England Patriots  =  87-66

3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  84-45

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  89-71

1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  91-56

Ranking the 3-0 Teams

7.) Chicago Bears  =  74-62

6.) Tennessee Titans  =  80-74

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  80-58

4.) Seattle Seahawks  =  111-86

3.) Green Bay Packers  =  122-85

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  93-77

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  91-60

Looking Ahead to Next Weeks Games

16.) Denver Broncos (0-3)  @  New York Jets (0-3)  (TNF - NFLN)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) New York Giants (0-3)  @  Los Angeles Rams (2-1)  (4:05 - FOX)

13.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1)  @  Washington Football Team (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Arizona Cardinals (2-1)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

10.) Philadelphia Eagles (0-3)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-1)  (SNF - NBC)

9.) Cleveland Browns (2-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) New Orleans Saints (1-2)  @  Detroit Lions (1-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Minnesota Vikings (0-3)  @  Houston Texans (0-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Atlanta Falcons (0-3)  @  Green Bay Packers (3-0)  (MNF - ESPN)

4.) Buffalo Bills (3-0)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (2-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-0)  (1:00 CBS)

2.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1)  @  Chicago Bears (3-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

1.) New England Patriots (2-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (2-1)  (4:25 - CBS)

The Lightning's Long Wait is Over

Back in 2015, a young, dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning team made the Stanley Cup Final. They weren't some happy-go-lucky team. They had 110 points, they led the NHL in scoring. They had two great superstars entering their prime in Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman - both 24. They had a truly great second line with players 21, 23 and 24 (Kucherov, Palat and Johnson). They were deep, fast, and extremely skilled. I thought they would win that final against an aging Chicago Blackhawks team. It was something of a passing of the torch. But somehow the Blackhawks stole a few games, and took the series. It was supposed to be the start of something great in Tampa. It was - it just took a while to get the silverware.

This past five years of the NHL has been defined by teams that had been contenders for a number of years finally breaking through. First it was the Penguins in 2016 (admittedly, they won in 2009). Then the Capitals, in maybe the most enthralling, cathartic breakthrough, won in 2018. The Blues won it last year. Finally it gets capped with a Tampa team that was as talented as that group - had been on the losing end of some of those runs (both the 2016 Penguins and 2018 Capitals beat the Lightning in the Conference Finals). Tampa truly deserved it, and given the ages of some of their core, they might not be done quite yet.

The Lightning seemed destined for this moment, but like the Capitals before them, the road here was a slog. The year after the Cup loss, they had a rough, uneven year, sneaking into the playoffs in a weak division, but then took fire. The player who rose up that season was a 25-year old Victor Hedman, truly coming into his own that year. Those playoffs, Steven Stamkos had a heart issue that kept him out of most of it. Hedman took on the role of the de-facto Captain, taking his team on his back to some degree, to a 3-2 lead in the Conference Final. It wasn't enough, Pittsburgh took the last two games.

In 2018, the Lightning were a truly great team, 113 points (tops in the East), 296 goals - most in eight years. They were reaching their apex - easily handling the Devils and Bruins (a 110-point team themselves) in the playoffs. Then the Capitals snuck one out - once again winning the last two games when down 3-2 in teh Conference Finals.

Of course, we all know last year. Unparalleled regular season success with 128 points, 325 goals. Three with 90 points. Hedman with another stellar year. Andrei Vasilevsky won the Vezina. Then they were swept - and not only swept, but done so with embarrassing aplomb. First, they blew a 3-0 lead in the first game. Then Kucherov got suspended. Then Hedman re-injured his ankle. It was truly terrible. It should have hurt this team long-term. It did for a bit with a slow start to the season - then they hit their stride.... and then Covid hit.

The Lightning made it look easy year after year in the regular season, but never did in the playoffs. So it is fitting when they finally win, they do so in a bubble, with no fans, in isolation, in the toughest way possible.

The Lightning are a team full of great stories - not too surprising given perennial 'we got so close' type teams generally get empathized over time (take the Capitals). It starts with the man who got the Cup first. Steven Stamkos is an electric player, but his body has failed him time and time again. Sometimes not of his doing (breaking his leg at the Olympics in 2014, a blood clot issue in 2016). Sometimes it was wear and tear. He is beloved by his time, more or less so by the NHL community. He has been a rousing Captain and it was truly great to see him lace up twice this series, first to score a goal on one of his three shifts (and my God, what a shot) and finally to lift the Cup.

The guy who took it second is right there in Victor Hedman. He was drafted #2 the year after Stamkos went #1, and immediately the two were poised to take over. It took a while for Hedman to fully develop, but he's been the best defensemen over the past five seasons, and is squarely in line for the Hall of Fame. He was dominant throughout the playoffs, and while he was so desserving of the Conn Smyth, seeing him break down carrying the Cup was awesome to see.

The Lightning still have a decently long runway left. Kucherov and Point have taken on and now exceeded the Stamkos-sized position of leading the offense. Guys like Sergachev and Cernak are ready to up their game as players like McDonagh slow down (Hedman, I assume, will be a swedish Adonis for years to come). Vasilevsky is still young and extremely dependable. Jon Cooper's steady hand survived a bunch of rough waves and should comandeer MS Lightning for years to come.

The whole bubble experience was incredible. Such a credit needs to be given for the NHL and they way they handled it. The two bubbles kept, they never had issues. Sure it was tough on players, but ultimately they created an environment for players to care, for fans to get their wish and for the cup to get awarded. They created an in-arena atmosphere that worked fairly well. They did their job - the Lightning (and other teams) did the rest.

The Lightning leave the bubble with the hardware, something they so richly deserved. Stamkos and Hedman likely locked up their place in the Hall of Fame. The Lightning play with such an open, fun, connected style. They 'grit' players they brought in like Patrick Maroon, Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman perfectly complemented then innate skill their top end has. It was a perfect fit. The Lightning were a perfect fit - finally.