NFL 2024: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Sr. Jones" Uno

32.) New York Giants  =  2-8  (156-222) 

The irony is I don't think at all the Giants have the worst roster in the NFL. They ahve some decent talent at receiver, at DL, and even in the secondary. Conversely, the OL is garbage, but really all this comes down to is the continuing humiliation of Daniel Jones. It was a msitake pick back in 2019, and still a mistake pick when they decided to pay him after that mirage of a 2022 season. The rumblings of benching grows louder, but even if they let him play out the string - it is already team to start scouring 2025 draft QBs.

Tier II - The "Scouting Through 2025" Quadro

31.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-7  (167-310)
30.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-7  (148-213)
29.) New England Patriots  =  3-7  (160-220)
28.) Tennessee Titans  =  2-7  (157-240)

A lot of people are commenting on the ridiculous spate of 2-win and 3-win teams at this point in the season. Legitimately so (my next two groups are also such teams). Granted, some of this is there's no 0-win or 1-win team at this point. Anyway, for the Panthers, nice that Bryce Young is 2-1 since his return but that team is still a disaster. Cleveland hopefully can get something back after their bye but I would put tabs on the Jameis-sance being a 1-week mirage. The Patriots showed they can still dismantle bad offenses, but I still think against better schemed teams compared to whatever the bears are putting forward, they will get exposed. And finally the Titans are having one of the most boring seasons of incompetence. Nothing embarrassingly bad, but really nothign aside from continuing good DL play, to enjoy.

Tier III - The "Wishing it was All a Dream" Trio

27.) New York Jets  =  3-7  (177-214)

26.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-8  (202-264)

25.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-6  (177-259)

Even if Rodgers comes back, this season is full to well shot. What a surprise that firing the defensive coach would make the defense, what was still a good unit at the time of Saleh's firing, turn into a disaster. I don't think there's any team with worse outlook this season. If you're the Jaguars, do you even bring Trevor back? I mean I assume you do, but at this point Lawrence is almost certainly the starter next year, and equally so is Doug Pederson almost certainly not the coach. XXXXXXXXXXXX. The Cowboys are just overmatched at this point, and I do wonder when the plug gets pulled on McCarthy. Jerry is generally not as rash with coaches as you think, but in a similar QB-injury disappointment in 2010, he did can Wade Phillips after a similar-ish track record.

Tier IV - The "Mediocre Mediocrities" Duo

24.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  2-7  (168-201)
23.) New Orleans Saints  =  3-7  (227-246)

I don't really know why I have these two higher than the prior four. I guess I have some more upside potential in the Raiders defense, and the Saints having some life with Derek Carr back. We finally move on from our host of 2-win and 3-win teams here. Each of the seasons since the move to 17-games has seen one team start 3-6 or worse make the playoffs. Since all the 4-6 teams were previously 4-5, that means for the streak to continue, one of the above will have to make it. I guess the only one I have any real potential in seeing is New Orleans. Not sure why, but that team from Week 1-2 may be lingering just enough.

Tier V - The "In Theory Wild Card Fodder" Trio

22.) Miami Dolphins  =  3-6  (147-202)

21.) Chicago Bears  =  4-5  (175-167)
20.) Indianapolis Colts  =  4-6  (208-223)
19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  4-6  (279-266)

Ok, all four can I guess turn it around, but it all seems a bit hopeless. The Dolphins got a big win in theory but I saw some distressing signs even in that win - huge sacks, some issues in teh secondary, and more frustratingly a continued lower ceiling to the Dolphins offense than there should be. The Bears have had three msierable games on offense in a row, and Waldron just seems lost. It's not like there's not weapons, and while the OL is bad, you would think Waldron can scheme up something better than what we've seen so far. I won't put it all on Caleb just yet. For the Colts, the schedule is easy enough that I can see a path back to 9-8. Again, they never get embarrassed, but strikingly they look way less competitive overall with Flacco. It seems like Steichen's digging his heels here - another potential comeback felled seemingly by coaching malpractice. For the Buccaneers, it's the opposite really. Coaching wise they're fine, but just too many injuries. Baker has been valiant, but the defense is also getting gashed a bit more than they did earlier in the season. When they're not getting pressure, teh secondary is getting exposed at times.

Tier VI - The "Wild Card Contenders" Quadro

18.) Denver Broncos  =  5-5  (197-177)

17.) Seattle Seahawks  =  4-5  (210-221)
16.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-6  (270-262)
15.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-5  (185-217)

Technically the Broncos are the #7 seed in the AFC at this moment, but since they've yet to beat anyone all that good I'm sticking them down here. Nix has played low-msitake football but the top-end needs to get higer for me to have any real confidence. For the Seahawks, it's been a rough few weeks but they remain just 1.5 games out of the division with a high ceiling + low floor combination. They have to protect better for Geno. For teh Bengals, there still is a clean path to the playoffs, starting with a huge game this week in LA. Defensively they have to blitz more; try something to get pass rush from anyone outside of Hendrickson. I'm not sure why I remain being somewhat hopeful about the Rams. Stafford and that offense have to do better in the red zone, and particularly they have to stop taking huge sacks. That was a winnable game, and Kupp and Nacua look good, and the defense continues to play above its level. I think this is a good team with enough of a runway to make it interesting.

Tier VII - The "Imperfect, Untested, but Good" Quadro

14.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-4  (238-236)

13.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-4  (238-220)
12.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-3  (230-194)

11.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  6-3  (186-118)

The Falcons couldn't just follow through on promise for once. They had a bunch of positive momentum last couple weeks. They outplayed the Saints in reality, but seeing Kirk struggle to attack and rely on checkdowns on that final drive was alarming. Outside of one out-of-his-mind drive in Philadelphia, they still haven't able to play in all-pass situations. The Cardinals remain a high ceiling team with a defense playing better by the week and a scheme that Murray seems increasingly more comfortable with as well. They cling to that division lead, and have an easier schedule rest of year than the 49ers. Stealing that division is definitely a possibility. For the Packers, let's hope the bye settles down a Jordan Love given a week to rest. He took off in the second half of the season, but for me at least I've seen some definite regression this year. Nothing alarming for a 2nd year player. The Chargers resume is pretty barren on big wins at this point, but man can they jsut suffocate bad offenses. Again, there is some house of cards potential if injuries set-in, but so far Jim Harbaugh has been a good luck charm in that area.

Tier VIII - The "Ships Passing in the Night" Duo

10.) Houston Texans  =  6-4  (247-252)
9.) San Francisco 49ers  =  5-4  (233-202)

It's not even like you could say the Texans should have won that game. They basically decided to stop playing at halftime, and it was only the two more interceptions by Jared Goff that kept it close. The defense though remains excellent, and can get even better when Will Anderson returns. Offensively they need to slow it down for Stroud, but this might just be a sophomore slump season. Finally on the 49ers side, with McCaffrey back there are no more excuses. Be the team that you still very much have the roster to be. Jennings and Pearsall have filled in fine enough for Aiyuk. The defense has found some punch. Purdy is still playing well. Make your kicks and go on your roll. The opportunity is there, admittedly with a tough schedule to navigate. That should have been a dominant win if not for the horrific special teams. Clean that shit up, guys.

Tier IX - The "Just Plain Good Teams" Trio

8.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-2  (221-157)

7.) Washington Commanders  =  7-3  (290-217)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-2  (215-146)

If Darnold isn't throwing terrible interceptions, the Vikings are pretty damn great. Yes, better offenses can take advantage of Flores (see the Lions). Yes, saying "if Darnold doesn't throw interceptions" is a tough ask, but I still believe in the core of this team and the wins that they've banked to this point. This is still a much better, real version of the Vikings compared to the 13-4 mirage of a team in 2022, even if 2022 Kirk is better than 2024 Darnold. The Commanders probably should've won that game, but a close loss to a good team is probably right given they never should've beaten the Bears. Jayden Daniels is going through a mini-slump, but is still a very good player taking advantage of some good weapons and Dan Quinn's defense remains good enough to keep them in any game of late. Imperfect team, but really high upside still. For the Steelers, my only worry coming out of that game (aside from if Wilson turns into a pumpkin) is the Highsmith injury, but they're deep enough and well coached enough on defense to get around it. The Steelers are just a very good team and have a chance for a real statement next week against the Ravens.

Tier X - The "Are We Allowed to Believe?" Uno

5.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  7-2  (233-161)

Like I get Sirriani can seem like a buffoon. I get that it is hard to trust them after a 10-1 start last year becoming a 1-5 end and a meek playoff exit. But to put it another way, in 2022 they went 14-3, then started 10-1, had that malaise (admittedly after playing nothing like a 10-1 type record), and now are 7-2. Take that malaise out of it, and they are 31-6. There is upside here because the top end is just that strong. Maybe not as strong as the 14-3 team having lost some pass rush punch adn OL dominance, but about as good. This is a very good team that more will trust over time. Starting maybe with this week against the Commanders.

Tier XI - The "Mega Contenders" Quadro

4.) Baltimore Ravens  =  7-3  (318-253)

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-2  (290-193)

2.) Detroit Lions  =  9-1  (310-194)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  9-0  (219-161)

The Ravens narrowly averted another frustrating loss. This is a ranking based on offensive dominance, but to me clearly 4th in a group of Four based on thsoe defensive limitations. Jackson is playing at an insanely high level, but it is a bad sign that they need him to do so to win close games, rather than blowout teams like 2019 or 2023. For the Bills, that was a calm win even with some weirdness, but in past years they would lose the games with weirdness and picks and what-not. Cooper and Coleman hopefully will come back soon, but may not be in time for the Chiefs game. For the Lions, if they're able to throw the ball away four times (plus a hail mary pick), fall behind 23-7, on the road against a good team, and still win the game, that is a sign that this is just a really good unit. Finally on the Chiefs, yes it is frustrating for opponents to watch them just win these close games week after week. But this is still a good team. For their sake, I hope they lose at some point because to some degree this is like teh 2009 Colts, that were never 16-0 good despite basically getting that opportunity handed to them on a platter.

\Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  15-2

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-4

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  12-5

4.) Houston Texans  =  11-6
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-5

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  11-6

7.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Detroit Lions  =  14-3

2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  12-5

3.) San Francisco 49ers  =  11-6

4.) Atlanta Falcons  =  11-6
5.) Minnesota Vikings  =  12-5

6.) Washington Commanders  =  11-6

7.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-6

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Schedule

Byes: New York Giants (2-8), Arizona Cardinals (6-4), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), Carolina Panthers (3-7)

14.) Indianapolis Colts (4-6)  @  New York Jets (3-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Cleveland Browns (2-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Houston Texans (6-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-7)  (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Los Angeles Rams (4-5)  @  New England Patriots (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

9.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)  @  Detroit Lions (9-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Minnesota Vikings (7-2)  @  Tennessee Titans (2-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Atlanta Falcons (6-4)  @  Denver Broncos (5-5)  (4:05 FOX)- 
6.) Seattle Seahawks (4-5)  @  San Francisco 49ers (5-4)  (4:05 - FOX)
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)  (SNF - NBC)

4.) Green Bay Packers (6-3)  @  Chicago Bears (4-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Washington Commanders (7-3)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)  (TNF - Prime)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (7-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)  @  Buffalo Bills (8-2)  (4:25 - CBS)