In the end, I am so ready for these playoffs as well. I'm going to eschew my normal picks and instead just give some random thoughts about what excites me, interests me, grabs me, about each game as I gear up for what promises to be my favorite season in memory.
Sat, 4:35 - (A5) Browns (11-6) @ (A4) Texans (10-7)
= I just love that the Texans are back in the 4:30 Saturday slot, just like it is supposed to be. The Texans have made the playoffs in their history in 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and now 2023. Seven times, and seven times they've played the first playoff game of the run, the great 4:30 playoff spot. Even this time when this game does have some interesting juice, be it Stroud, or the Flacco renaissance, the others are all just better...
= CJ Stroud is even better than I expected him to be. I was so hoping the Colts would get him, falling in love with Stroud watching him nearly beat Georgia in the playoff last year. Alas, he went to a division rival of all places. Let's see what becomes of Anthony Richardson, but no surprise for me. Him against this Browns defense is a match made in heaven.
= While the Flacco story has been great, I think we're all overlooking the fact that he's still thrown ~2 picks a game, and there is a very good chance at some point in this playoffs he turns in a disastrous performance. Could easily be this week. I hope not just because I do want to see a potential Browns @ Ravens game for all the various storylines (Flacco, of course, at the top of the list), but I do think there is a chance this weekend just goes quite badly against a pass rush that should be healthy.
The Pick: Browns 17 Texans 23
Sat, 8:15 - (A6) Dolphins (11-6) @ (A3) Chiefs (11-6)
= I find it really weird the amount of Tweets I've seen this week of people, seemingly seriously, suggesting the NFL should move the game away from Arrowhead because it is going to be -4 degrees and around -30 wind chill. I get that -30 wind chill is definitely "dangerously cold," but NFL games have been played in the dangerous cold for years and no one died. One of my favorite games in memory had very similar temparatures, the famed 2007 NFC Title Game in Lambeau - and the cold is absolutely part of the reason it is so well remembered.
= It is really strange to see this game as a Wild Card matchup given how great these two teams were early on, but here we are. I just wish the Dolphins were healthier. Even despite my soft spot for the Bills, watching the Dolphins at their best at the start of the year, with Tua humming, that offense so dynamic was great. The Dolphins are the rare team that had the league's best offense at one point in the season, the league's probably 2nd best defense at another (for like a week or two) but overall nothing close to either at the end of the season.
= I'm so excited to see what crazy stuff Spags comes up with this playoffs. They truly need him to go off on one of his great runs this season. That offense is not recoverable this season, but the Chiefs have a Top-5 defense, relatively healthy and playing great over the second half of the season. So curious to see what he dials up for that OL and to stop Hill.
The Pick: Dolphins 20 Chiefs 27
Sun, 1:00 - (A7) Steelers (10-7) @ (A2) Bills (11-6)
= Sean McDermott needs an apology from the general public. They scorched him after the Dorsey firing, which was coupled from that weird hit piece that probably rightly outed him as just a weird guy, but also made him out to be some sort of monsters. It's pretty clear despite him being blunt at times, the team loves the guy - and he is on a defensive coaching heater throughout this entire run, resembling his work with the 2013 or 2015 Panthers.
= I don't think the Steelers have much of a chance but the spectre of a ton of snow definitely has me concerned. The one Bills weakness in reality at this point is their rush defense adn we just have to look back at last year in the divisional round to see how snow could hurt the Bills.
= That all said, many teams in the past were great for multiple years, losing awful playoff games, only to finally win with their most middling team. Think the 2006 Colts, or the 2012 Ravens, or the 2020 Dodgers. It happens a whole lot. The Bills this year could maybe be the greatest case. Of course, they also have very much the ability to turn it over four times and lose 13-16.
The Pick: Steelers 13 Bills 24
Sun, 4:35 - (N7) Packers (9-8) @ (N2) Cowboys (12-5)
= I love the symmetry of the playoff matchups, with the the schedule having the 5-4, 6-3, 7-2 matchups on the AFC followed up with the 7-2, 6-3, 5-4 matchups on the NFC side - a beautiful little seeding palindrome. Nothing more to say really. Especially since I;m a bit surprised this is the afternoon game, with the Rams @ Lions being the nightcap.
= I've talkeda bout the fact that the revenge game for McCarthy has been a bit understated. In terms of the matchup though, McCarthy offense, which is fairly predictable at times, is actually perfect to beat the weaknesses of the Packers defense. You can kill them over the middle of the field and by calling simple slats and in breakers and the like. Well guess what? McCarthy knows little else.
= The Jordan Love era is so exciting to watch bloom. Yes, I'm sure for people that hate the Packers, it is maddening to see them go from Favre to Rodgers and now see Love already play this well. Still super unlikely that he gets anywhere close to those levels, but Love's season this year is oddly similar to Rodgers in 2009 (his first time taking the Packers to the playoffs). That's the real worry for the NFC, that come this time next year, the Packers fix their defense and this team is primed for a decade of dominance - again.
The Pick: Packers 24 Cowboys 30
Sun, 8:15 - (N6) Rams (10-7) @ (N3) Lions (12-5)
= It's so cool that the Lions are seen as a big enough story (plus all teh Stafford/Goff stuff) that NBC would choose this to be the SNF game on Wild Card Weekend. This is just an incredible matchup. All offense. All fireworks. Both defenses aren't that great. Goff to St. Brown & Williams vs. Stafford to Kupp & Nakua. Just perfect.
= An underrated story to me is that this is the first playoff game at Ford Field. The stadium opened in 2002. I can't imagine another stadium in NFL history took so long to get its first playoff game. I remember when Reliant Stadium in Houston hosted its first in 2011 - that was 10 years into its life and it seemed like forever. This is over a decade longer, of waiting, of myriad awful seasons, of brown paper bags and the like. But it's here, and with an offense first, dynamic team. Just perfect.
= People seem to be overlooking the Rams finished 7-1. Teams rarely make the playoffs after 3-6 starts. We see that stuff a lot when teams start 0-3 or 1-4, and this is later into the season to be three games under. To do that and end this good, especially with the one loss being in OT in Baltimore - tehre is a good chance teh Rams might be the second best team in teh Conference right now.
The Pick: Rams 30 Lions 24
Mon, 8:15 - (N5) Eagles (11-6) @ (N4) Buccaneers (9-8)
= I find it just absurd that I'm reading stories that Nick Sirriani might be coaching for his job. Granted, there have been crazier things, but this team went 25-5 over a 30 game stretch from the start of last season through the 10-1 start this year. Yes, things have gone to shit since, but you don't just fire a coach after one bad stretch.
= That said, Jesus Christ is this defense indescribably awful since they switched playcallers to Matt Patricia. Ever since that late game TD drive allowed to Seattle, they've been arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Far be it for me to make your panic "break glass in case of emergency" move switching to the guy who is almost famous for how bad his defenses have been.
= The Bucs honestly shoudl be favorites. The Eagles are reeling and somewhat injured. The Bucs are fairly healthy, and can take advantage of that paper-thin secondary of the Eagles fully well enough. The main reason I want to will that into truth is clear: it would be amazing for this crazy season, the one post-Brady, the one that I've loved more than any since probably 2013, to feature Baker Mayfield leading the Bucs to (1) more regular season wins than Brady did last year, and (2) further in the playoffs. All hail the Baker.
The Pick: Eagles 20 Buccaneers 28
