(A1) Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) vs (N1) Philadelphia Ealges (16-3)
FOX - 6:35 | PHI -1.5
State of the Teams: The injury question is a lot more significant on the Chiefs side of the ledger. Mecole Hardman is out, but it seems like Kadarious Toney and Juju are both going to play, along with L'Jarious Sneed getting cleared out of concussion protocol. Then there's of course Mahomes and his ankle. While he still looked a bit gimpy against the Bengals, we're now on the outer range of when you would think someone with this injury, a mild case as the Chiefs have made clear, should be back close to 100%. It may not happen, but the Chiefs seem realistically as healthy as they were going to be. The Eagles are a picture of health in terms of we know their main guys are all going to play. The biggest question mark seems to be the lingering effects of Jalen Hurts's shoulder injury. He definitely sailed a few passes against the 49ers (who should be noted had great coverage anyway, so Hurts may have missed due to trying to be "safe"). Hurts wasn't afraid to run, and the Eagles OL was as good as ever despite Lane Johnson dealing with his own injury. In a league where even Super Bowl teams are generally facing injuries, with the exception of Coleman being out, these two are about as rested as you would think. In terms of their actual play coming into this game, the Eagles roll in with the best point differential in the playoffs in a long, long time. This after their 14-1 regular season record when Jalen Hurts played, and they have been the clear best team. Of course, they had an easy schedule. People throw out the 9-1 record against winning teams, but some of these were teams that were, while above .500, never all that great like the 3-0 mark against the Giants. For the Chiefs, they too don't have the strongest resume of wins, but like always in the Mahomes era, their defense is playing better the later we get in the season, and the offense has settled mixing in more heavy 2TE formations and the like. In the end, we have the two 1-seeds, rested, relatively healthy, and the biggest injury question marks seem to even each other out with the questions around their QBs.
The Matchup: The Eagles are good at everything. We have to really dig deep to find areas where they are not a Top-10 team in. The common one has been deep passes, which is one area the Chiefs have reduced as a focus. Not that the Chiefs can't go deep, and both JuJu and, especially, MVS have had their moments, but that is one area you like the Eagles. The Chiefs are the league's best offense, and their weakness there is a 9th ranked rushing offense by DVOA - here is a place the Chiefs may get some success, lining up against a 21st ranked Eagles rush defense by DVOA. The marquee matchup of course is the Eagles pass rush against Mahomes - with so many people having memories of the Super Bowl two years ago, when Mahomes had to run for his life. However, that was way more around the health of their OL. Few point out the Super Bowl the year prior, when against another great pass rush in San Francisco, the Chiefs OL was fine. And this Chiefs OL is better. A lot of focus will be on Orlando Brown against Reddick or Sweat. In the end, the Chiefs offense is good enough, and the Eagles aren't great against TEs which will hurt in this specific matchup as well. The other side of the ball is more interesting to me, as it is the side that can swing the game from a good game to an Eagles blowout. The Eagles obviously are amazing at running the ball, something that got better as the season went on. KC's rush defense is the relative strength of the defense, and if any team has a player that can neutralize the Eagles incredible interior OL, it is Chris Jones. The Chiefs also have a deep secondary that plays interesting coverages. Historically this year they havne't been a great tackling team, but were excellent in the AFC Title Game - something they need to carry over against the Eagles. That side of the ball really comes down for me to a couple facets - can Spags get enough pressure on Hurts through their secondary blitzing, and can his secondary control Brown and Smith. That, even more than the run game to me, is what turns a potential blowout into a close game.
The Pick: In the end, I'm going somewhat with my heart over head here in thinking the Chiefs win this game. At the end of the day, they have the single best unit, have some good matchup edges on that side of the ball. The Chiefs are one of the better pass blocking teams in the league, and their newfound brilliant short passing game this season can also help neutralize the Eagles biggest defensive strength. Their underrated ability to run the ball should be able to do the same. On the other side, there is a bit of "trust in Spags" and a bit of seeing Hurts air-mail a few passes in the Title Game. I think the Chiefs keep it close, and with that I think they have just enough to get over the line.
Chiefs 27 Eagles 24 (KC +1.5)
