2022 NFL: Week 8 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Sweepstakes" Duo

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-4-1  (106-137)

31.) Detroit Lions  =  1-5  (146-194)

There's some beauty in two teams with the most obvious need to upgrade at QB being the two remaining 1-loss teams and lining themselves up perfectly for a top pick. No surprise either with it being these two teams. Yes, the Lions has some friskiness early, but that seems to have fully washed away. Similar with the Texans who have perfected losing by 8-17 points. The Lions in theory have a better core around them on offense at least, but need so much improvement on defense. Aidan Hutchinson does seem like a future star at least.

Tier II - The "Probably Over, but still Working" Quadro

30.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  2-5  (107-162)

29.) Carolina Panthers  =  2-5  (124-149)

28.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-5  (175-200)

27.) Denver Broncos  =  2-5  (100-115)

In theory the Panthers and Saints are just one game back in the division, but realistically all four of these teams are done for the season. The Steelers will remain competitive most weeks because Mike Tomlin is just that competent, but their defensive issues can't be overcome until Watt comes back (if he does). For the Panthers and Saints, their have similarly low floors of being good enough to stay competitive in games. The Panthers blowout said a lot more about Tampa, than it did about a Panthers team that is going through an expected post coach-firing bump. The Saints probably will turn back to Jameis asap, but the damage is probably already done at this point. For the Broncos, hopefully Wilson comes back soon, but the season is more or less lost at this point. I guess with the availability of a 7th seed I may live to regret making the proclamation now, but too many teams to overcome, and a harder than you think schedule left to play (including both Chiefs games).

Tier III - The "On Life Support, but still Beating" Quadro

26.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-5  (168-186)

25.) Washington Commanders  =  3-4  (125-156)
24.) Arizona Cardinals  =  3-4  (156-176)
23.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  2-4  (163-150)

Not sure why I have the Browns here and not in the prior group to be honest, other than not liking to do sets of 5 all that often. The Browns are a team when healthy can be competent, but the ceiling of a Brissett offense hsa been reached. The Commanders have enough talent to make a run, but are suddenly in by far the best division in the sport and unsettled at QB. Getting Young back, when it happens, will certainly help. The Cardinals are right there in the division, but I just have no real faith in the coaching. Getting DeAndre Hopkins back in a couple weeks though is something I had forgetting about that could, in theory, unlock the offense a bit for Kyler. I think the 9-2 start last year was a mirage, but with Hopkins they're definitely a better team than they've shown. For the Raiders, the close losses will probably haunt them, but they suddenly have built a very reliable OL, and a positive point differential, not really built by blowouts, is impressive.

Tier IV - The "Muddled Mess of the NFL, Pt. 1" Trio

22.) Chicago Bears  =  3-4  (126-132)

21.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-3-1  (113-140)

20.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-4  (163-171)

Hopefully soon we can avoid the "the whole NFL [bar Buffalo, Kansas City] is bad" but when these four teams are right in that middle of the league, it is hard to argue. The Bears are 3-4 and for the first time maybe ever seemed like they had a coherent game plan around Fields. It still bugs me that he's a full year behind Hurst - he has a great arm, is generally accurate, and the Bears need to push that a bit more. The Colts and Rams are at the stage that we should be writing them off, but the Colts are in striking distance of Tennessee with a good defense that should improve if/when Shaq Leonard gets healthy. But the switch to Ehlinger is such a wild card for the rest of the season. The Falcons offense is just so scheme and weirdness dependent that they'll have days like yesterday. The defense without AJ Terrell is a mess. That weirdness will steal them some wins, and technically they're tied for 1st right now? 

Tier V - The "Muddled Mess of the NFL, Pt. 2" Trio

19.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-3  (104-126)

18.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-5  (155-137)

17.) New England Patriots  =  3-4  (155-146)

The Rams are a half game back of first. In other divisions, they would be done. The Jags are my pet team that I can't distance myself from. The down to down talent is there, the point differential is there. They probably should ahve won yesterday. In many ways, they may end up like the 2016 Eagles (Pederson's first year there), a team that finished 7-9 with a positive point differential, setting them up for their 13-3 and Super Bowl season the next year. A lot of that will fall on Lawrence who has to get more consistent, but the core is there. For the Patriots, there's a lot of questions right now. First, is Zappe just the guy now? He had a few good throws early but really struggled in the second half, looking much like the turnover prone Mac is when trailing. The rush defense was also brutal. They should get some benefit of the doubt after prior performances though.

Tier VI - The "We have to Talk about these QBs" Duo

17.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-4  (128-146)
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-4  (124-124)

A lot is being made of these two teams and for good reason, the two most accomplished current QBs, two of the five or six most accomplished QBs ever, struggling to 3-4 togehter. When the Packers beat the Bucs 14-12 to go to 3-1 what we should've realized is it was two bad teams. I don't honestly know whose problems are more fixable. Is it the Packers who could conceivably get more chemistry as the year goes on with new pieces, or the Bucs who are healthy and have a better track record, but seem so far away from it. Both defenses are underperforming as well, the Bucs more so recently with some attrition and being forced to play more. At the end of the day, these are both bad teams and both have had relatively easy shcedules so far. If not for the names on teh back of their QBs, they would be lower down.

Tier VII - The "Upwardly Mobile Middle Class" Quadro

15.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-3  (164-189)
14.) Miami Dolphins  =  4-3  (147-165)
13.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-4  (145-133)
12.) Seattle Seahawks  =  4-3  (183-186)

At some point the Chargers have to show up and play the way we think they can. Brandon Staley is a pet love for many analytically-minded football people but he really hasn't proven himself as a coach yet and his defense is starting to get torched, even before the recent injuries. Herbert also still doesn't look exactly right, or at minimum they're calling plays thinking he is not. The Dolphins are 4-0 when Tua finishes a game. Yes, two of those were miracle wins, but they have a high floor when he plays and he got back in time before the AFC could run away from them. The 49ers are getting healthy, and I think that loss was a lot more about how good the Chiefs are. We'll get a better sense of them in the coming weeks - they were also treading water around .500 for much of last season. For the Seahawks, I don't buy them long term. The defense is playing above its head, but games like their 32-39 loss in New Orleans are never too far away. And yes, seven games isn't enough to get me fully bought into Geno. I will say his chemistry with Lockett and Metcalf - who seems to have escaped major injury - is great.

Tier VIII - The "Tail end of the AFC" Trio

10.) New York Jets  =  5-2  (159-137)
9.) Tennessee Titans  =  4-2  (115-128)

XXXX. The Jets may not get much higher than this as injuries may start to catch up on them. Losing Breece Hall and another tackle this week. The defense is healthy, and Sale is coachign them up really well, but I do wonder how many losses could they take. Wilson may have to get unleashed more, which long term may be fine. For the Titans, there is a bit of "how are they doing this?" but we all asked that the whole of last season as well. They reached a bit of a happy medium on how to use Henry, and the secondary has really stepped up in the wake of a less effective pass rush without Harold Landry. It helps that they may ahve a Top-5/10 coach in Vrabel.

Tier IX - The "How is this Happening!?" Uno

8.) New York Giants  =  6-1  (150-130)

At some point, the record is the record. I'm sure there have been teams that were 6-1 that fell off, especially when four of their wins are 4th Quarter comebacks, but there are a few certain truths here. The Giants have a good defense that is deep and well run by Wink. Saquon is a monster and barring injury should stay that way. The OL is getting better week by week as they start covering better for their major weaknesses. If the pass offense can stabilize they can be a really good team. But to me they've done enough to think that at worst they'll be a 10-7 type #5 seed.

Tier X - The "Great AFC North Race of 2023" Duo

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  4-3  (181-161)

6.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-3  (173-132)

It seemed that these two would battle it out for the AFC North, and it took a few twists and turns, with the Bengals starting 0-2, and the Browns quick start, but seven games in and here we are. I actually think at this point the Bengals, despite losing to Baltimore, have a better resume and outlook. The OL gets better each week, and the pick-happy Burrow was clearly just a week-1 mirage. Force-feeding Chase the ball a bit early is paying huge dividends, adn the defense has a very high floor of performance. For the Ravens, they finally escaped blowing another lead. Advanced metrics, and me personally, still like them loads, but they have to get over whatever ails them late in games. The pass rush coming back to life was a nice sign that they have to continue forwards.

Tier XI - The "Is This Our NFC?" Duo

5.) Dallas Cowboys  =  5-2  (134-104)

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-1  (139-118)

The biggest issue with people's perceptions of hte NFC seems to be that the teams people thought would be good are the ones I ranked way back in the middle, and these two (put Philly aside for a second) are near the top. But let's get used to it, these are good teams. Dallas has Dak back, and that defense remains excellent and has started to pile up turnovers again. So well schemed and coached. For the Vikings, its similar but about that offense. Yes, we would like more upside from Kirk, but with a healthy set of skill guys, this version of Kirk is good enough with a defense that has played better than expected. Patrick Peterson's ressurrection is a big part of that. Yes, maybe no one would have expected a potential 12-5 Cowboys team playing a 13-4 Vikings team in the NFC Divisional Round, but here we are. Accept it.

Tier XII - The "Big 3" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  5-2  (223-172)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  6-0  (161-105)
1.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-1  (176-81)

We can say that there's a lot of bad teams in the NFL, but there's also three clearly very good ones. If we look at the Chiefs, their losses came in one inexplicable special teams disaster, and to the team ranked #1. The Bills only loss came in a game where they outgained their opponent 2:1. The Eagles have no losses, and a couple good wins. All three teams have done an excellent job so far. The Chiefs offense is incredible, with Mahomes's connection with Juju and MVS getting better every week. The defense will slowly get their guys back as well. For the Eagles, we;ll long have questions on if they can make a comeback if down in teh second half, and they'll need to play better in second halfs after taking huge leads with great 2nd quarters, but these are nit picks. And the Bills are everything we could have wanted, even without having great turnover (especially, fumble) luck so far.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:

Byes: Kansas City Chiefs (5-2), Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

15.) Denver Broncos (2-5)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)  (9:30am - ESPN)

14.) Miami Dolphins (4-3)  @  Detroit Lions (1-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-2)  @  Houston Texans (1-4-1)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Who Cares" Sunday, as we get some really bad matchups to start us off. To be fair to the Dolphions and Titans, they are +.500 teams, but are pretty uninteresting ones, the Dolphins getting dragged down by a team that may be fully out of it in Detroit. For the Broncos and Jaguars, this would be pretty low even if the Broncos were playing well.

12.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)  @  New Orleans Saints (2-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Washington Commanders (3-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-3-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "I truly mean it, who cares?" Sunday, as truly this week is another rough one, more because we get a lot of these types of matchups. The Raiders and Saints may play a fairly high scoring game which should at least be entertaining but NFC South terrible-ness notwithstanding, both are already pretty far out of the playoff race. For the Commanders and Colts, they both are I guess in the palyoff race? We also get to Sam Ehlinger for the first time, so there is some intrigue there.

10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Pennsylvania may not even care" Sunday, as we get a really listless battle of PA. The Eagles truly have a really easy schedule, and a bad Steelers team off of their own bye is another cupcake. The only saving grace for Philly fans is this is the offday of the World Series.

9.) Carolina Panthers (2-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-4)  (1:00 - FOX) 

8.) Chicago Bears (3-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-2)  (1:00 - FOX)

7.) Arizona Cardinals (3-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

6.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (2-5)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Interesting, for a lot of weird ways" Sunday and Monday, as we get a lot of weird games with intriguing elements. For the Panthers and Falcons, to see which can stake their claim as somehow the 2nd best team in the division. For the Bears, if they can follow up what seemed to be a turning point for a Fields-offense against one of the league's best defenses. For the Vikings, if they can go to 6-1 while still being highly questioned. And finally, to see if Burrow can continue his dominance - an offense as fun as any when they are on fire.

5.) San Francisco 49ers (3-4)  @  Los Angeles Rams (3-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "It wasn't supposed to be this way" Sunday, as we get the 2nd NFC Championship Game rematch in quick succession. In a weird way, maybe this is the optimal way for this to have gone down. The Rams are a shell of themsleves, and the 49ers are as high variance as they were last year even after supposedly stabilizing. The winner here is probably off the hot seat for the week, but the loser? They are in a lot of trouble.

4.) New England Patriots (3-4)  @  New York Jets (5-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) New York Giants (6-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "New York, New York!!" Sunday, as with both the Yankees and Mets gone, we New Yorkers can focus on how their teams are balling out. Both of these are winnable games, which would be amazing, if New York could reach the half-way point at 13-3 combined. The Jets are probably bigger favorites in this game than any Patriots game in a long, long time (if pre-Belichick). The winner of Giants and Seahawks will be truly having an amazing season. Good stuff here.

2.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)  (TNF - Prime)
1.) Green Bay Packers (3-4)  @  Buffalo Bills (5-1)  (SNF - ESPN)

I call it "Gen-Z's Revenge" Thursday and Sunda, as If you ever wanted a "changing of the guard" weekend, well here you have it. The Ravens have a chance to send Brady to two games under.500 for the first time in his career (seriously). They have a chance to really shine a light on what a mess TB is becoming. And then you get the Bills, off of a bye, at home, in primetime, getting a chance to do something similar to Rodgers (granted, he';s been more than two games below .500 before). These both could be blowouts, they could be close, but who cares. For one week, I'm all in on #Narrative.