2022 NFL: Week 7 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Bryce Young Sweepstakes" Quadro

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  1-5  (103-146)

31.) Houston Texans  =  1-3-1  (86-99)

30.) Chicago Bears  =  2-4  (93-118)

29.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  2-4  (97-146)

The NFL is a bit muddled this year. Generally we'll see some stratification as the season goes on - more teams will end up 5-12 or worse and 12-5 or better, but here we are. The Panthers are dreadful, already on their second coach, and potentially facing a fire sale. Not that it would be a bad strategy. For the Texans, they're already a year into a fire-sale situation and the best outcome of their bye week is probably ridding the franchise of the weirdo known as Jack Easterby. I missed all of the Bears loss, and it seems like that was a godo strategy for my sanity. I still have the Steelers down here because they have some of the worst numbers on paper, and I have a sneaking suspicion that their win over the Bucs was more about the Bucs issues than their own. They kept converting 3rd & 10+ which is not sustainable at all.

Tier II - The "I for no reason have faith" Trio

28.) Arizona Cardinals  =  2-4  (114-142)

27.) Detroit Lions  =  1-4  (140-170)

26.) Washington Commanders  =  2-4  (102-135)

Who are the Cardinals? The team that came within a field goal of taking the Eagles to OT, or the team that looked sullen and disinterested in their loss in Seattle? They have more talent than the other two teams in this grouping, but by far the worst coaching. For the Lions, next week will be a tough game against a Cowboys team getting Dak back, but a great showcase to see if their terrible loss to the Patriots was a sign of a team that just is at too much of a talent deficit. The Commanders have a chance here to turn their season around, but Wentz's issues are looming. Getting Chase Young back will help that defense tremendously, which has started to get better production from elsewhere as well.

Tier III - The "Bad spoilers" Trio

25.) Cleveland Browns  =  2-4  (148-163)

24.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  1-4  (125-130)

23.) Denver Broncos  =  2-4  (91-99)

I don't think any of these three are good, but they have enough upside to win 6-7 games and make games more annoying than they should be. Obviously, for the Browns, I'm judging them by what they are today, not what they could be when they get that predator back. But the bloom seems to be off the Brissett rose a bit (or just Belichick knows him too well). For the Raiders, they may only have one win, but barely a negative point differential, which shows a team that has lost games by one and two points so far. I have a lot of skepticism though of how well they'll play as the season drags on for a coach like McDaniels - if this was McDaniels 1.0, it will go to shit. So this is a nice test case really. For the Broncos, if Wilson can get out of his way, this could be a team that makes a run. That defense is truly fantastic. But man is it painful watching an offense that is not even trying seemingly to play to any of Wilson's strengths.

Tier IV - The "Fun, but Ultimately Harmless" Quadro

22.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-4  (141-158)

21.) Miami Dolphins  =  3-3  (131-155)
20.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-4  (138-114)

19.) Seattle Seahawks  =  3-3  (146-163)

All four of these teams are fun in their own ways. The only one I think has a shot at the playoffs are the Jaguars, a function both of their division and lingering belief in their point differential. The Saints keep things interesting, but I think we are starting to see some of the drop-off associated with losing Sean Payton. For the Dolphins, they'll be getting Tua back - let's put the issues to the side of him playing at all - which should unlock the "fun" version of the team. My biggest issue right now is not really buying the coaching - they play too often less than the sum of their parts. For the Seahawks, I may be underselling them right now. Their defense played well for the first time all year. Again, hard to know if that's them or that's the Cardinals offensive issues being more pointed than before. With Geno and that offense though, they'll always keep games fun.

Tier V - The "Did We Write Them Off Too Soon" Duo

18.) New England Patriots  =  3-3  (141-113)

17.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-2-1  (103-121)

Look, before we all go gaga on the Patriots, let's remember a few things: their three wins are still against bad teams (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland), and that lines up exactly with what they were last year when they continually blew out bad teams but struggled against any team worth a damn. They're still mostly that this year too, but it is amazing how well Belichick can coach that defense to own mediocre to bad offenses. For the Colts, they are indeed bad, but for the moment they are right there in the division somehow. Matt Ryan and the offense found some life. The OL looked better. There might be a formula here to get to 9-8 or whatever may still end up taking the AFC South. They are not a good team. Neither of these two are really, but they have a path forward. Just please find a QB solution that is not getting whatever the 2023 version of 2022 Matt Ryan is.

Tier VI - The "Ships Passing in the Night" Quinto

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-2  (141-152)

15.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-3  (146-136)

14.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-3  (104-126)
13.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-3  (107-123)
12.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-2  (96-118)

Part of the reason I don't get this season is this bunch of teams that are either way overperforming (Atlanta), or way underperforming (Rams, Packers), and its hard to tell what may reverse itself. The case for is as follows. For the Chargers, tough win, and they should get healthier. Herbert is still the best QB (or at least the best current QB) out of this grouping. The Falcons have shown a general competence with this run heavy approach, and their worst loss was a 6-point loss on the road without Patterson and Pitts. The Rams defense has played well throughout the year, and you would think they can better integrate Robinson as the season goes on. The Packers are basically the same, with theirs more a scheme issue than any true weakness (like the Rams OL). For the Titans, coaching is a huge plus here, as they really shouldn't be that good. We all expected them to take a step back - but maybe they have a higher floor than we initially would have thought. The cases against are also super clear. That OL of the Chargers is turning their offense into somethign resembling the 2020-21 Big Ben Steelers. The Falcons having to trust Mariota. The Rams OL is a weakness that is only getting worse, with the loss of Noteboom. The Packers offense is looking way too much like its late era McCarthy self. And the Titans, while their floor may be higher than we thought, without having adequately replaced Brown, are still a team who entered a knowing rebuild with both eyes open. Some of these will end up playoff teams, but maybe none in the exact way we expected.

Tier VII - The "Let's Talk About Them" Duo

11.) New York Jets  =  4-2  (143-128)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-3  (121-103)

My biggest question for the Jets coming into this season was not wondering if their offense would improve with Zach Wilson. It was if Robert Saleh can do on defense what he was brought into do, and that has become a resounding yes so far. While their schedule to date has been fairly light, what they did in Green Bay was impressive, especially consistently generating quick pressure. Sauce Gardner is also a superstar in the making. For the Bucs, it's the opposite question. Yes they have injuries, but there are two concerning trends. The first is more written about that is when even their skill guys are healthy, they just don't score points. The Chiefs game is the only time they've scored more than 21 points. The second is more concerning, which is their defense is coming back to earth. They haven't as consistently generated pressure and started having more coverage issues. They get a few NFC South layups but the rest of their schedule is actually fairly tough.

Tier VIII - The "AFC North Race of 2022" Duo

9.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-3  (138-115)

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  3-3  (158-141)

People can clown on the AFC North, but I think these are both two good teams that both may make the playoffs if they clean a few things up. Weirdly it is the opposite problem. The Ravens have to get better in the 4th quarter, and its mostly self inflicted wounds. Down to Down, they are a Top-5 team in the NFL. Lamar is getting unlucky with picks. Their skill guys are still a weakness. Penalties are becoming a problem on defense. But in the end I buy a team that is good three quarters. For the Bengals, its the opposite, they start too slow. The OL is still a work in progress but trending in the right direction. My biggest question for them is can they consistently generate pass rush. Their coverage is good but is being asked to hold up for extneded periods too much. Both of these are good teams that have had unfortunate moments - a more fair world has them both at 4-2.

Tier IX - The "Isn't this the NFC We All Predicted!?" Quadro

7.) San Francisco 49ers  =  3-3  (122-89)
6.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-2  (110-98)
5.) New York Giants  =  5-1  (127-113)

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  5-1  (139-118)

Right now there is a sense the NFC is a weak conference, but I posit it isn't all that weak, but its the teams we didn't expect that are propping it up. The 49ers loss was rough, but to me it says more we're underestimating the Falcons, and I hope they can get a bit more healthy. Their long-term outlook still looks good in my eyes. For the Cowboys, they should be getting Dak back which is huge. I believe in that defense, and CeeDee Lamb has taken a clear step up this year. The Giants are just good. They may not be great, they're not as good as that record, but that is two impressive wins in a row. They've started blocking better. Saquon is used really well, and that defense has adjusted really well to Wink's scheme. For the Vikings, I wish they would play better on a consistent basis, blow a few teams out here and there, but their offense has been very good, the coaching is good. My only real concern is their defense has been takeaway heavy - but generally that is something that in year seems consistent and just falls of year to year.

Tier X - The "Top of the Pops, Pt. 1"

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  4-2  (179-149)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  6-0  (161-105)

The Chiefs lost, but played well. That game could have so easily gone either way. The positives are still quite positive, from a set of receivers that are getting more acclimated to the play of Mahomes, so it isn't just Kelce. The defense is still playing well and should get healthier as the season goes on. To me they're clearly the second best team in the AFC in its current state, and change like two plays and we're having a different discussion. For the Eagles, they have to figure out why they are so good in the 2nd quarter and so meh in others. It was a huge drive to go up 26-17 after letting a 20-0 lead go to 20-17. The team is great at what it does. We haven't truly seen them have to come back - their closest attempt was being down 14-0 early against Jakcsonville. I like their offense and their line play is excellent. They are so similar, in a sense, to the 2017 team, just with an even easier schedule.

Tier XI - The "Top of the Pops, Pt. 2"

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  5-1  (176-81)

The Bills are #1 in offensive and defensive DVOA. Now, granted in both they are historically low #1s this far into a season, the fact they are great at both is not lost. They are that good. Their defense is playing well even missing a few secondary players. The run game has come on the past couple weeks. The OL still can improve, and the pass rush has high highs but also goes slow for periods. We're picking nits though. They're excellent in a season with no real clear competition at the moment aside form maybe Philadelphia.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (5-1), Los Angeles Rams (3-3), Minnesota Vikings (5-1), Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

Rough week for byes, with three of the 5+ win teams in the league on a bye. Makes the week as a whole look a lot rougher.

14.) Chicago Bears (2-4)  @  New England Patriots (3-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

13.) Houston Texans (1-3-1)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (1-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Green Bay Packers (3-3)  @  Washington Commanders (2-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Detroit Lions (1-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)  @  Miami Dolphins (3-3)  (SNF - NBC)

8.) New Orleans Saints (2-4)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-4)  (TNF - Prime)
7.) Seattle Seahawks (3-3)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)  (4:25 - FOX)

6.) Cleveland Browns (2-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) New York Giants (5-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

4.) New York Jets (4-2)  @  Denver Broncos (2-4)  (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)  @  San Francisco 49ers (3-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

Honestly, this slate is just pretty bad. I don't even think its worth puns or what-not.