1.) Houston Texans = 0-3-1 (73-93)
I don't think we've had a season in recent memory where we were already left with just one winless and one undefeated team. The Texans continue to be solidly bad instead of terrible - certainly there are a number of 1-3 teams that I would pick them to beat if they played tomorrow. Their comeback to make a game of it was truly surprising and it's fairly clear that Davis Mills is a Top-20-25 type QB, which is generally better than the QB for the worst team in the league. They do have a lot of 2021 Lions type vibes, a team that loses many close games early before totally breaking down as te year goes on.
Ranking the 1-3 (or 1-2-1) Teams
8.) Washington Commanders = 1-3 (73-107)
Carson Wentz is just done. He'll have four great games, one of which already happened, but for a guy who by default holds onto the ball too much, him with that OL is just an awful combination. The defense seems like they'll rarely give up more than 27 points, but it won't matter if Wentz is getting hit, getting called for grounding, or ending up on his ass every other play.
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 1-3 (74-90)
If Tomlin can keep is ".500 or better" streak going this year then he truly should be named Coach of the Year. Pickett was ok (the picks largely weren't on him) but the arm strength is definitely already a pretty glaring weakness. The defense is just plain bad without Watt, and I hope the Heyward injury at the end isn't serious. If you take a look at their upcoming schedule, a 1-7 start is not totally out of the picture.
6.) New Orleans Saints = 1-3 (78-96)
They looked ok with Andy Dalton in place of Jameis but what worries me is that the defense seems to have fallen off. The pass rush that has been their strength in recent years has gone quiet a lot this season. The idea for the team was supposed to be an offense that can score ~23 points a game coupled with a defense good enough to turn that into 9 wins. The offense has generally help up its end.
5.) New England Patriots = 1-3 (74-98)
I know a ton of people are busy giving Hosannas to Belichick for nearly tying Green Bay with a 3rd string QB, but lost in that is the fact the Patriots got a pick-6 (more bad throw than great defense) and a TD on what 100% should have been a delay of game. Then on the other side, if Doubs catches the TD that game doesn't go near OT. This team still has a lot of fundamental issues, even if they are reasonably well coached.
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 1-2-1 (57-85)
Not sure why I have them still this high other than homerism. Matt Ryan looks cooked. The OL is a disaster given the amount of investment. The special teams are beyond bad. The defense is consistently above average but rarely makes splash plays - something you need when their offense seems incapable of stringing long drives together. The worst indicator about the Colts is their 0-2-1 division record.
3.) Carolina Panthers = 1-3 (78-85)
I'm surprised I have them so high on this list, though that may be more that all the 1-3 teams generally aren't all that good. Their point differential is decent, and they have one unit that is downright good. Their defense is a top-10 type defensive unit, coached well and deep. The offense is just garbage however. They have upside with McCaffrey and can follow a format to end up 7-10 I guess.
2.) Las Vegas Raiders = 1-3 (96-100)
I'll give McDaniels this: that offensive performance, particularly the run game, was downright impressive. Carr still hasn't really clicked in that offense yet - but there shoudl still be room for that to happen. The defense is not good, and Wilson repeatedly burned them deep, so I think even te upside here is an 8-9 team that loses a decent amount of shootouts, but at least McDaniels can say he has the offense playing well.
1.) Detroit Lions = 1-3 (140-141)
Speaking of offense playing well - it's already frontline news that the Lions are both the highest scoring team in the league through four weeks and the highest scoring defense as well. Both probably stabilize a bit, but I'm not surprised. Goff was always better than people remember in the last few years, and they have decent weapons and a good OL. The defense is a disaster, but that is as much a function of no personnel than coaching. I still like the overall trend, I do worry if they have the right time horizon for it though with Goff.
Ranking the 2-2 Teams
13.) Chicago Bears = 2-2 (64-77)
I guess throwing 22 times is an improvement? It is unreal that this offense exists in the year 2022 of our lord. I guess the most recent comp is the Tebow Denver offense from 2011, but there it was because it was so clear Tebow was just not good enough as a trower. That is not the case with Fields, but they run the offense like it is. Just maddening.
12.) Cleveland Browns = 2-2 (105-95)
The bloom may be starting to wear off, with Brissett's limitations showing throughout that game. Their upside is he can be a caretaker until Watson gets back but with some injuries starting to show up that may be optimistic at this point. Defensively, they have to improve their pass rush if they want to really excel on that side of the ball. The secondary remains excellent, but the front is not helping.
11.) New York Jets = 2-2 (78-101)
That was a really positive game for the Jets. Forget the defense, it's hard to get a good gauge on how that side of the ball is when playing the Steelers, but for the offense that was huge. Wilson leading a 10-point comeback, and them going for hte win instead of settling for the field goal, was huge. It seems he already had some decent chemistry with Corey Davis, which would be huge.
10.) Arizona Cardinals = 2-2 (88-103)
So far the Cardinals have beaten two bad teams and been woefully outplayed by two good teams. Hard really to get a gauge with that. Their defense remains fairly strong, but they're healthy at the moment. In past seasons their issues on that side were generally health related later in the season. I still don't trust anything about the offense aside from Kyler scrambles. I just think Kliff is over his head trying to coach an NFL offense.
9.) Seattle Seahawks = 2-2 (95-115)
It's sure fun to pretend that this is just a new level of play from Geno Smith. In the end, he'll come back to earth a bit, but the OL is playing better than it has in years, and Metcalf is still a monster on the otuside. If the offense does drop a bit, they'll be in trouble as the defense hasn't shown an ability to stop anyone so far; the personnel is just not there right now.
8.) Tennessee Titans = 2-2 (75-101)
Hard really to know what the Titans are right now. Two straight wins have brought them level in the division, but it is hard to be too excited about barely beating hte Raiders and then coming fairly close to blowing a big lead against the Colts. I do trust in Vrabel as a coach and they've done well to still perform well despite a bunch of injuries. The use of Henry more in the passing game is an interesting wrinkle for them.
7.) Denver Broncos = 2-2 (66-68)
The real worry after that game is the defense getting exposed for the first time, with the Raiders just running, running and running. The pass rush forced a bunch of quick throws, but there's the Gregory injury that can throw a wrench into that. The offense looked better, but in a way that was still all too reminiscent of the Seahawks: numbers that look decent on paper, but have a bunch of three-and-outs and short drives ending in punts mixed in.
6.) Atlanta Falcons = 2-2 (103-101)
I don't know how a team wins a game when passing 7-19, but they did it. The defense played good in some huge situations, and the offense showed that even when limited to running they can string drives together. Mariota needs to get more accurate, but they'll have a great test this week against Tampa to show if this team can do anything more than stay competitive against bad teams.
5.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-2 (92-108)
Something of a get-right game, with Austin Ekeler getting involved more, Herbert continuing to get good OL play in front of him, and the offense looking like the team we expect. The defense however? I do worry they're overly reliant on Khalil Mack for generating pressure right now, and the way they let the Texans back in the game was a bit worrying. I guess there are no easy games, and a TD win on the road is still a good result, but I was a lot higher on them midway through the game than by the time it ended.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 2-2 (105-67)
It's easy to write them off a bit after losing their first high-profile game, and getting smashed in the mouth after taking a 14-0 lead. But that said, if Lawrence doesn't fumble four times (and more crucially the Jags lose all of them) then the game is at least closer, if not one they can win. It will be interesting to see if that rush defense performance was just an abberation, or something a bit more worrying.
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 2-2 (82-68)
In a weird way you can take some positivity out of that loss. It is likely that is the worst game this defense plays all year. And for the first team their offense seemed right - odd that getting Mike Evans and Godwin back would help! The lack of any run game is still worrying, made worse by their defiance to keep running on 1st down (abondoned yesterday just because of the score). The OL held up though against a blitz-heavy KC scheme, in another positive sign.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 2-2 (91-70)
Maybe it is an overreaction to playing well against a team tired on short rest, but the Bengals OL impressed me - and we saw that when he gets time, the Burrow led offense is still very, very dangerous. Also, the defense remains a very underrated unit, continuing their high-floor, low-ceiling level that carried them to nearly a Super Bowl. Also, if not for some truly awful special teams, they are 3-1, even with all the Burrow INTs in Week 1, and people are way less concerned.
1.) Baltimore Ravens = 2-2 (119-100)
It's tough that they play Cincinnati, as the loser would inarguably be the best 2-3 team in the NFL. The Ravens may end up really rueing blowing the Miami game. They played well at times, and their coverage has really improved these last two weeks. The biggest missing element is any semblance of a run game outside of Lamar. If they can get a little of that back (and if Ronnie Stanley can come back and play well it would help tremendously) they could be a dangerous team still.
Ranking the 3-1 Teams
7.) New York Giants = 3-1 (76-71)
It's pretty clear they are not a good team, and a number of 2-2 teams are better than them. But then again they've beaten the bad teams and there are a decent amount of bad teams left on the schedule. I really hope Daniel Jones can play in the London game, otherwise that could be a bit of a disaster. The real bright spot has been Barkley and the run blocking. They still can't pass block for shit, but they are consistently giving Barkley lanes.
6.) Minnesota Vikings = 3-1 (86-80)
Hard to know what to think of the Vikings. Their only loss is to the league's lone undefeated team, and they spanked another 3-1 team, but they probably should have lost to the Lions and let a bad Saints team hang aroudn way too long. The offense needs more from Dalvin Cook and the defense needs more stability in their pass rush. They're a good team, but 3-1 is a bit flattering.
5.) Miami Dolphins = 3-1 (98-91)
Part of this drop is an adjustment for Teddy, and also an awareness that they easily could have lost to either Baltimore or Buffalo, and on the whole don't have the numbers belying a team that should have their record (granted, arguably neither do the next two teams). They play a bit worse than the sum of their parts in my mind, and without Tua for at least a couple weeks, it may get more glaring with a tough schedule coming up.
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 3-1 (71-62)
The defense is legit. Now, they were the best defense by DVOA last year, but a lot of that was driven by turnovers, which aren't stable year to year. As a whole, defense itself isn't really stable. Well, the Cowboys are putting a lot of that to question, om both accounts. They're tsill getting turnovers, but more than that still getting a lot of pressure from both Parsons and Lawrence. The offense can churn out 20-24 points a game, which might be good enough to win a decent amount of them until Prescott comes back.
3.) Green Bay Packers = 3-1 (75-69)
Aaron Rodgers was brutally honest after the game that the Packers can't keep winning this way, but each week I see him getting a better connection - particularly with Doubs. If either Watkins or Watson can hit they can really have something. The defense remains good, but it was a bit worrying how soft their rush defense was at times against a team that was clearly going to just run and run.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 3-1 (129-96)
The biggest takeaway from that game wasn't Mahomes's continuing ridiculousness, but how well they rushed on the Bucs, seemingly at will. Everything picked up yards, they always got a push. And this is against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs run game was good even with CEH, which has been such a problem in the past. Hopefully they don't get addicted to it, but it is good to know they can run like that when they want.
1.) Buffalo Bills = 3-1 (114-58)
They are basically one mistake (out of a bunch) against Miami from being 4-0, despite playing three road games. They showed they can win ugly, and get a comeback. You can argue maybe the Eagles, but they are at worst the 2nd best team in teh NFL. The OL can be better, and their secondary is still short on depth, but aside from those things they are still every bit as complete and loaded as we expected.
Ranking the 4-0 Team
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-0 (115-71)
Hard to get too much of a read out of that game. The Eagles looked flustered early so I give them a lot of credit of both staying calm and more importantly sticking to their game plan even when down 14-0. It is far too easy for teams to immediately jump to catch-up (pass) mode even early in a game. That said, they can't count on four recovered fumbles too often, and while the defense forced some of those that was clearly also a weather (and Lawrence) abberation. At the end of the day, they are still very much deserving of a 4-0 record, and would likely be my #1 (I'll switch to a normal 32-1 ranking next week)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Houston Texans (0-3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Washington Commanders (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ New Orleans Saints (1-3) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Chicago Bears (2-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) San Francisco 49ers (X-X) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) San Francisco 49ers (X-X) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (4:05 - CBS)
11.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-2) (TNF - Amazon Prime)
10.) Detroit Lions (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) (MNF - ESPN)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) New York Giants (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (3-1) (9:30am - NFLN)
5,) Atlanta Falcons (2-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Miami Dolphins (3-1) @ New York Jets (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Miami Dolphins (3-1) @ New York Jets (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (Z-X) (4:25 - FOX)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2) (SNF - NBC)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2) (SNF - NBC)
