Tier I - The "Better Luck Next Year" Trio
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 2-14 (227-446)
15.) Houston Texans = 4-12 (225-404)
14.) New York Jets = 4-12 (300-477)
All three are bad, but honestly I should put the Jaguars on a level by themselves. The Jags, for the millionth time since they fired Jack Del Rio eleven years ago, are a disaster. Admittedly they're playing under a very lame duck interim, but what is unnerving is how bad Trevor Lawrence has looked despite having reasonable weapons. For the Texans and Jets, they've both shown some fight in recent weeks - the Jets really should have won on Sunday, but this high variance approach coupling blowouts with close wins/losses is the sign of a team that has a coaching staff that can motivate week to week but needs more stability to function well. I'm glad, honestly, that David Culley seems to be on track to get another season. For the Jets, I'll do more next week writing up each of the teams that will miss the playoffs, but Saleh's defense underperformance is definitely worrying.
Tier II - The "Uncomfortable QB Conversations" Quadro
13.) Miami Dolphins = 8-8 (308-349)
12.) Cleveland Browns = 7-9 (328-355)
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 8-7-1 (327-385)
10.) Denver Broncos = 7-9 (311-294)
Tier III - The "Moral Victories" Uno
9.) Las Vegas Raiders = 9-7 (339-407)
The Raiders have a very real shot at the playoffs, and should be applauded for making do after losing both Jon Gruden and then Henry Ruggs for terrible and tragic reasons. They started both 2019 and 2020 6-3 before ending those seasons 1-6 and 2-5. This year again they started 6-3, and at worst will finish 3-5 but alive for the playoffs. Their underlying numbers are not playoff worthy, but Derek Carr has been amazing keeping them afloat and to be honest should be a down-ballot MVP candidate if the NFL MVP was ranked voting like baseball's is. The defense still needs major improvement and I do worry if Carr will ever get a level further up, but this team had every right to follow its 2019 and 2020 vintages into the ground, but didn't.
Tier IV - The "Truly, Better Luck Next Year" Uno
8.) Baltimore Ravens = 8-8 (374-376)
The Ravens if Lamar gets back is probably a frightening playoff prospect. It won't happen though because of failed two-point conversions against Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and just not having enough to combat so many injuries. On its face, the Ravens went from 8-3 and the #1 seed to 8-8 and needing miracles to make the playoffs, but that should not be held against Harbaugh who has navigated more injuries than any other team, including to his star QB, and keep them at least sea level. Assuming they get average injury luck next year, they have a real nice foundation to be back after a sadly wasted year.
Tier V - The "Well, Herbert is great" Uno
7.) Los Angeles Chargers = 9-7 (442-424)
I'm continuously surprised how many points the Chargers have given up. Their defense is really just Joey Bosa and a bunch of randoms. They haven't been as injured as in recent years (Bosa's recent games missed as a notable exception). Then again, their offense is right up there with any in the AFC,w it Herbert playing a starring role. He needs to get unshackled even further in the offense they run, but with his arm talent you have to expect it will happen sooner or later.
Tier VI - The "High Ceiling, but Low Floor" Duo
6.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7 (440-339)
5.) New England Patriots = 10-6 (438-270)
To me there's some similarities with these teams aside from the variance element being the QB for the Colts and the run defense for the Patriots. Both teams have solid pass defenses, good OLs and run games that will show up every week (obviously the Colts better running and Patriots better at pass defense). They both are good enough to knock off top teams (though quietly the Patriots don't have a great win on their ledger aside from beating a badly injured Tennessee team), but have low enough floors to look out of place in big games. The Colts inability to generate anything like a consistent passing offense despite their great OL has been shocking, and the Patriots lack of trust in Jones against better teams probably become issues they can't overcome.
Tier VII - The "#1 Seed Without a Bullet" Uno
4.) Tennessee Titans = 11-5 (391-329)
Assuming they beat a bad Texans team (honestly, not guaranteed...) the Titans will be the #1 seed for the AFC. They'll be the first #1 seed with five losses since the 2002 Raiders (who of course made the Super Bowl), and by many metrics the worst #1 seed in many years. That said, they also have one of the more impressive resume of wins, blowing out KC and the Rams, beating Buffalo, sweeping the Colts. The Titans should be relatively healthy in the playoffs and have shown an ability to beat all the teams most likely to head to them in a potential AFC Championship Game. Somehow this team seems to have a fairly clear, believable path to a Super Bowl.
Tier VIII - The "Start of Something Special?" Uno
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 10-6 (444-355)
People will point to the Bengals easy schedule, and lack of big wins - of course, until this last week. The naysayers will point to Joe Burrow's performance against good teams and his sack numbers (that OL is terrible). But at the end of the day, their offense is loaded. They are almost a carbon copy in many ways, aside from the bad OL, of the 2005 Bengals with Palmer, Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Rudi Johnson - except younger across the board. Joe Burrow is a superstar, and while he does need to get better handling the pocket at least the Bengals have a very clear hole that needs addressing up front. The defense is better than it shoudl be giving the names, with Trey Hendrickson one of the quieter great FA pickups. The Bengals are likely not Super Bowl bound, but they absolutely have that ceiling.
Tier IX - The "AFC Favorites?" Duo
2.) Buffalo Bills = 10-6 (456-279)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (452-340)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (452-340)
If this was a normal 16-game season, the Bills having a point differential of 456-279 would be consistent with one of the best, balanced teams in any given season. That is a pythagoreon record of 12-4 and if you give the Bills the sneak against Tennessee, and either of their losses with goal-to-go for leads against the Patriots or Bucs, and viola! They are really good, and unlucky. The Chiefs are really good, but not unlucky. They were legitimately a flat .500 team through eight weeks and legitimately one of the best in the league thereafter. Their pass defense faltering against Cincinnati is hopefully a wake-up call that they can't just relentlessly blitz that much and expect it to work every week.
Ranking the NFC Teams
Tier I - The "Better Luck Next Year" Duo
16.) New York Giants = 4-12 (251-394)
15.) Detroit Lions = 2-13-1 (288-437)
I've defended the Giants a lot as probably through 12 games they were a team that had serious limitations (especially offensively) but fought. These last two weeks have been just absolute nightmares. They've clearly quit on Joe Judge, whether Judge wants to admit it or not (or more accurately, actively lie to hide it). Joe Judge is not the answer, even if he and Patrick Graham can scheme up a reasonable defense every other week. Daniel Jones probably gets one more year to show something. For the Lions, they've not quit but they just have too much of a handicap to be successful. They do play hard for Dan Campbell, these past two weeks excluded, and while they will need to decide if Goff is a longer term answer, the future is bright. Granted the future will always be brighter when you end a season with 2-3 wins.
Tier II - The "Sad Underbelly of the NFC" Quadro
14.) Atlanta Falcons = 7-9 (293-429)
13.) Chicago Bears = 6-10 (294-376)
12.) Carolina Panthers = 5-11 (287-363)
12.) Carolina Panthers = 5-11 (287-363)
11.) Washington Football Team = 6-10 (313-427)
The Falcons are the worst seven win team in a long time, and their crumbling after a surprisingly tough first half against the Bills was not surprising in the least. Kyle Pitts had a nice season, and they have some draft capital coming up, but with an aging Matt Ryan and seemingly no plan on defense this team does not have a bright future. The Bears will need Fields to develop, and right now it's more of a waiting game on who will replace Matt Nagy to try to get him there. For the Panthers and WFT, they are just in no mans land, needing to settle somewhere at QB while trying to not lose what else makes them decent. I do fear their ceilings in their current set-ups is 9-8.
Tier III - The "Uncomfortable Decisions" Duo
10.) Seattle Seahawks = 6-10 (357-336)
9.) Minnesota Vikings = 7-9 (394-409)
9.) Minnesota Vikings = 7-9 (394-409)
Both teams are not bad - the Seahawks will likely end the year with a positive point differential despite 6-7 wins, and the Vikings were above zero in that until the blowout to Green Bay. But hiding behind some successes are major decisions, for both coach and QB on both. There is been rumblings on a potential Russell Wilson trade which could re-set the Seahawks but then the question pivots to are John Schneider and Pete Carroll the right people to usher in that rebuild without Wilson. For the Vikings, they can potentially trade Cousins as well but the questions then become who replaces him and what to do with Mike Zimmer, whose defenses have seemed to get worse and worse each year.
Tier IV - The "Seriously, Better Luck Next Year" Uno
8.) New Orleans Saints = 8-8 (334-315)
Like their AFC counterpart in the Ravens, the Saints went from 5-2 and leading the NFC South to 8-8, but if anything the fact they're still technically alive (and in reality way more 'alive' than the Ravens are) says a lot both about Sean Payton and moreso their defense. Had Jameis Winston not torn his ACL, this is clearly a playoff team with a scary enough defense to have made some noise before Jameis inevitably ruins things. Instead, they are at best definite wild card fodder because of just how limited Taysom Hill is.
Tier V - The "Likely Wild Card Fodder" Duo
7.) Philadelphia Eagles = 9-7 (418-334)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 9-7 (400-341)
The Eagles are in and they deserve a lot of credit for improving that offense as the year went on with Hurts. Just a great job scheming to what he does well and turning lesser known offensive players loose. The 49ers have a very interesting proposition coming up, with a win giving them a wild card spot (will help if the Rams rest starters now that the #1 seed is no longer up for grabs), but a loss gives the Saints a chance. It seems like Garoppolo is not ready to go, and while Lance had a decent second half I do worry if his lower floor is a bit of a risk in a must-win game. I do hope they get in because whether its Lance or Garoppolo, the 49ers are a tougher out than the Saints (unless its against Tampa I guess).
Tier VI - The "High Ceiling, but Low Floor" Duo
5.) Arizona Cardinals = 11-5 (419-328)
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 12-4 (470-336)
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 12-4 (470-336)
These two are better than the Colts and Patriots who I gave this same phrasing to on the AFC side. The Cardinals finally showed what made them great over their 10-2 start in that game, even if they were making the playoffs either way. Murray finally found some rhythm with AJ Green, and maybe more importantly the defense finally got its pass rush back. For the Bucs, the win was meaningless aside from seeding implications, but seeing Brady do work without Godwin and Brown was improtant as that is what it will be. Their OL dropping off of late is worrying, but given their strong run defense they're actually a good matchup agaisnt either of their likely wild card opponents in the Eagles and 49ers. Their hit or miss pass rush and corner depth issues will likely rear its head in later rounds.
Tier VII - The "Strong Contenders with Questions" Duo
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 11-5 (479-332)
2.) Los Angeles Rams = 12-4 (436-345)
2.) Los Angeles Rams = 12-4 (436-345)
It's weird writing about these two after the Cowboys loss and the Rams near loss to a backup in Huntley. Both are worrying, though the Cowboys loss was a bit more flukey and to a better team. They're now the 4 seed which puts a lot of pressure on a team to go on the road twice to get to the Super Bowl. Losing Gallup also hurts, and in the end we do have to wonder on McCarthy being good enough in close games to get them there. For the Rams, it's about Stafford. He's better than Goff, but after sixteen weeks, it is clear that even with Stafford they aren't as good as the 2017-18 Rams were. If the run game gets stopped as it did that week, there are risks with Stafford throwing a pick or two. The defense is good enough to keep them in games, but as we saw when they went to Green Bay earlier, it is a slippery slope at times with the Rams.
Tier VIII - The "#1 Seed, With Maybe a Bullet" Uno
1.) Green Bay Packers = 13-3 (420-334)
The Packers point differential doesn't point to a 13-3 team (or even a 13-4 team at worst), and while some of that has to do with their 38-3 loss in Week 1, even if you adjust for that which puts their point differential at 417-296, that isn't 13-2 good either. They've won a lot of close games. Rodgers has been excellent, but the run game a bit too up and down. The defense stands to get better as they finally get players back. There's no real weakness with this team, but other than Rodgers being Rodgers, there's no appreciable super strength even compared to last year's team. I do hope the returns of Smith and Alexander turbo-charge what has already been a good defense. Overall they are a worthy #1 seed, but given how a better version of the Packers was taken down last year, it has to give you some pause.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
Byes: (1) Titans (12-5)
Wild Card Matchups:
(7) Chargers (10-7) @ (2) Chiefs (12-5)
(6) Colts (10-7) @ (3) Bengals (11-6)
(5) Patriots (11-6) @ Bills (11-6)
NFC
Byes: (1) Green Bay (14-3)
Wild Card Matchups:
(7) Eagles (9-8) @ (2) Rams (13-4)
(6) 49ers (9-8) @ (3) Buccaneers (13-4)
(5) Cardinals (11-6) @ Cowboys (12-5)
Award Picks
MVP
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
2.) Tom Brady (QB, TB)
3.) Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
4.) Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
5.) Kyler Murray (QB, ARZ)
I think it's pretty apparent Rodgers has sewn this up at this point, as much like he did in 2011 he just has been more efficient than a more voluminous performer in Brady (it was Brees in 2011). Rodgers would get his 4th MVP, putting him one behind Peyton (and one ahead of Brady and Favre - crazy to think Packers QBs would have won 7 MVPs over a 27 year period). Burrow probably doesn't have enough counting stats and the team has a few too many losses. For Taylor, the Colts going at best 10-7 probably hurts him, even though he has been an insanely efficient RB for a team with a middling passing game, and if not for super performance from Rodgers he could have stolen this.
OPOTY
1.) Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
2.) Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
3.) Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Taylor may lose this to Kupp who is still on track for a near historic season. But he needs that 17th game to make history. Taylor has lapped the field at RB in a way no one has since Henry last couple years back (or Peterson in 2012). What Taylor has done has been phenomenal, keeping the Colts as a top-10 offense despite Wentz's skittishness. Kupp has still had an insane year, and if he crosses the 2,000 yard mark he probably nabs it. Rodgers is your obligatory best QB who didn't set any records.
DPOTY
1.) TJ Watt (LB, PIT)
2.) Myles Garrett (DE, CLE)
3.) Darius Leonard (LB, IND)
Watt's sack numbers and close finish last year probably gives him this for both the great performance and being seen as someone who is 'due'. Garrett has slowed down a bit but still had an insane season on the whole. For Leonard, I am a bit surprised why he's gotten such little attention. No MLB has a bigger impact and makes more splash plays than Leonard, who is having a Keuchly like season. I guess for a MLB to win it you need to be on one of the better defenses in the league (Keuchly in 2013, Urlacher in 2005, Brooks in 2002), but he still should be getting more shout.
OROTY
1.) Jamarr Chase (WR, CIN)
2.) Mac Jones (QB, NE)
3.) Creed Humphrey (G, KC)
Not even going to do DROTY as that has been Micah Parsons's since like week 3. Anyway, Chase has probably nabbed this from Jones after putting up historic numbers (even through sixteen games, slightly beating out Justin Jefferson's record from last year) for a rookie, while Jones has been merely good and had some notable bad games against the Colts and Bills. Jones has been fine for a rookie but no better than Herbert last year, or Dak in 2016. For Humphrey, unless its a Walter Jones-esque LT, I can't imagine a lineman ever winning this award, but what he's done in KC has been amazing.
COTY
1.) Mike Vrabel (TEN)
2.) Frank Reich (IND)
3.) Matt Lafleur (GB)
It's amazing that we're at a point where Mike Vrabel is the best Belichick disciple by orders of magnitude by this point. He kept that team competitive, fighting and alive when they went through injury hell, played up against good competition repeatedly, and has them as the #1 seed. No one had that team as a #1 seed, especially when Henry and every WR went down. For Reich, he's stabilized a team that started 2-5 and has them gelling despite injuries, Wentz's tough play and won games with practice squaders when they went through covid hell. Finally Lafleur because god damn going 13-3 (or 13-3, 13-3, 13-4/14-3) in three straight seasons is just insane.
