(A5) Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) @ (A4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Sat, 4:30 - NBC | CIN -6.0
State of the Teams: ENTER STUFF ABOUT INJURIES. For both teams this is something of a return, the Bengals first playoff game since 2015 (when they lost playing AJ McCarron) and for the Raiders since 2016 (when they lost playing Matt McGloin of all people). The Bengals are a far different team, overhauling basically their entire roster, and focusing it around Burrow, Chase, Higgins and a great offense that has blown up against bad teams but struggled at times against better ones. Their stats profile shows them being exceedingly average in about every way except for Burrow's per-play stats when he isn't getting sacked. For the Raiders, they're similar in a sense in that by most metrics they are average, but in a very unique way. Play to play the Raiders are rather good, but they are just brutal in the red zone, 26th on offense and 32nd on defense. That's why you get stats like Carr having a 3.7% TD%. They also get a lot of pressure, but rarely get sacks.
The Matchup: So, about that Red Zone issue - the Raiders inability to score or prevent TDs is very noteworth, as even by advanced stats it really hurts their overall profile, checking in at 19th by DVOA on offense and 17th by defense. The Bengals aren't great at either, but much like everywhere else in their profile they are decidedly average, ranking 16th in red zone offense and 19th in defense - miles better than the Raiders but not significantly so. The Raiders real advantage here is against the Bengals porous OL that led to Burrow getting sacked 51 times. The Raiders get a lot of pressure, if not a lot of sacks, but against a line as bad as Cincinnati's they at least have good matchups to have a high-sack game. Like many Raider games, I can see them reducing the game length with their long drives (and inability to get opponents off the field - the Raiders are 4th worst in plays allowed per drive and forcing three and outs), which is a fine strategy as an underdog, but less so when you may too often trade FGs for allowing TDs.
The Pick: The Bengals are decidedly average, but have a higher ceiling when they can keep Burrown upright at all. The Raiders just showed how good their pass rush can be, but that was in a primetime home game, not an outdoor road one. I just trust the Bengals to get a few more TDs (Burrow's TD% is twice Carr's), the Raiders to get too many field goals, and the Bengals to win their first playoff game in nearly 30 years. Raiders 16 Bengals 27 (CIN -6.0)
(A6) New England Patriots (10-7) @ (A3) Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Sat, 8:15 - CBS | BUF -4.0
State of the Teams: Put record aside, and by the stats there probably isn't a team that profiles better than Buffalo. They outgained opponents by 1800 yards, outscored them by 196 (led the league in both). They were top-10 in third downs on both offense and defense, and top-10 in the red zone in both. They gave up an absurd 65.3 passer rating, and racked up 42 sacks (while ranking 3rd overall in pressure rate) and gave up just 27. The biggest problem though, is the Bills that dominated bad teams that led to that impressive resume, was not the same one that lost meekly to good teams. For the Patriots, oddly they have a similar profile - a defense that grades out nearly as well across the board though slightly worse, an offense that scores more than it should (though not as efficient as Buffalo) and a propensity to kill bad teams while struggle mightily against good ones. The only real injury of note is Tre'davious White, but the Bills haven't missed a beat defensively since he left. These are two teams that grade really well, playing each other - one team will shed its "can't beat good teams" label.
The Matchup: With any divisional rematch there are two games to compare, both with interesting takeaways. In the first, the Bills were run over by the Patriots who threw just five passes in the wind. In the second, the Bills dominated, becoming the first team ever to never punt against a Belichick defense. The conditions that dictated the first (ridiculous wind) would lead you to somewhat discount it (plus to remember the Bills had a goal-to-go for the win despite all of that), but it also projects to be about 5 degrees. The Patriots offense is the weakest unit in the game, especially since all metrics of run/pass ratios based on situations, or going for it on 4th down, etc., lead us to believe Belichick doesn't fully trust Mac Jones or the offense yet - and fairly so. The best unit is the Bills defense, which led the league in DVOA, in pass DVOA, in pts/drive allowed and yds/drive allowed, while ranking as the best 3rd down defense and a top-10 red zone unit.
The Pick: Having these two play twice somewhat recently, gives us a lot of material to go off of, and personally I think the second matchup played in cold but not extreme wind conditions is a better example. But in a way so is the first - which again the Bills came fairly close to stealing anyway. They're a better team, even if one that may struggle when faced with a 'real' team in a week. Patriots 13 Bills 23 (BUF -4.0)
(N7) Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) @ (N2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Sun, 1:00 - FOX | TB -8.5
State of the Teams: The Eagles surprised people with their run back to the playoffs, one that was strong enough they could afford to rest everyone in Week 17, which worked in getting them healthy. Of course, the Bucs enter relatively healthy, getting Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David back (of course, Godwin and Brown won't be there). Let's start on where the Eagles do fairly well - they don't turn over the ball much, they rank #3 in rushing DVOA, they hold onto the ball ranking in the top-10 in yds and plays per drive - a good sign when you want to shorten a game, and unlike the Raiders, are a top-10 red zone offense. Of course, their defense is 5th worst in the red zone, and as a whole the defense is just not a good unit - 25th in DVOA, and 26th in weighted indicating they aren't nay better now than early. For the Bucs, their biggest strength is they just run a bunch of plays. They actually have more unsuccessful drives than you would think, but they run so many they score at will at times. They've struggled against heavy man teams (which the Eagles are) but as long as they can protect Brady they've done well. On defense if they can get after the QB, they've had sucess. Otherwise their depth at corner has been an issue. It's hard to know much about the Bucs post-Godwin and post-Brown given their schedule to end the season. Against the Panthers, it seems like there's no issue at all. Against the similarly down-trodden Jets they needed some miracles to win. If the Bucs have any real glaring weakness, it is penalties - especially on defense which can extend drives and do more to shorting the game.
The Matchup: If the Eagles have any hope, they have to get their run offense working at top gear, and with 12 straight games with 100+ rushing yards that isn't hard to envision. Hurst hasn't made too many mistakes so you could also see them doing their best to shorten the game. The Bucs offense has some flaws given theinjuries, I just don't see the Eagles as the team that can overcome those, a defense that has given up a 70% completion rate and registered just 29 sacks. The Eagles defense has little hope of slowing down Tampa aside from just a scenario in which the loss of Godwin and Brown moves them down multiple tiers in efficiency. It is still a credit to the Eagles that they are here, but the Buccaneers got probably the best possible outcome of a wild card round opponent (ironically, one that would have been their opponent anyway even if the Rams held on in their game and forced the Bucs to the #3 team).
The Pick: As mentioned, this seems the most predictable game, especially if the Buccaneers score first and jump out early. If there was every a game to pick to receive the ball if you win the toss, I would definitely do it here. I assume the Bucs would go up early and the Eagles can sustain on their run longer than most but that isn't a winning strategy. Eagles 23 Buccaneers 30 (PHI +8.5)
(N6) San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ (N3) Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Sun, 4:40 - CBS | DAL -3.0
State of the Teams: What a match. Young! Montana! So many others! On paper this looks amazing and it really should be a great game. The 49ers are, you would imagine, starting Garoppolo, and with him the offense has a high ceiling and one standout area - the league's best red zone offense. The Cowboys are a top defense, leading the league in takeaways, ranking as the #2 third down defense, and generally being a greater week to week strength than their offense - the turnovers contributing to a league-leading points total. But their are just average in the red zone. Prescott is healthy, as are his receiving options aside from teh sidelined Michael Gallup, so if there is some fear the defense may not be as good as the numbers make it out to be, the offense should be ready to pick up the slack.
The Matchup: I focus on that red zone point because it is the biggest strength of the 49ers, turning red ozne trips into TDs a good 2/3rds of the time (best in the league). Conversely, Dallas is 18th in red zone defense. But hidden in those numbers is very often the 49ers drives sputter before they have a chance to get close - middle of the pick in plays per drive, three and outs, and turnovers. Dallas has the ability to force a couple turnovers that can turn that relative red zone disadvantage into a nonfactor. The Cowboys offense can also attach the relatively weaker component of the 49ers defense - their pass defense, which gives them a few matchup edges here. I can definitely see the 49ers stealing this if they're able to sustain drives and get 4-5 red zone opportunities, but I think the underrated Dallas defense doesn't give that up.
The Pick: As mentioned, I do think Dallas's ability to sustain drives, put the 49ers in tough situations whereby they can capitalize on a turnover or two, would overcome their relative disadvantage in the red zone. It also isn't like hte Cowbotys are bad on their end, ranking 6th in red zone offense (49ers are 15th in red zone defense). The Cowboys are just better and will be good if they continue on. 49ers 17 Cowboys 27 (DAL -3.0)
(A7) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) @ (A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Sun, 8:15 - NBC | KC -12.5
State of the Teams: The Chiefs were the story of three teams - the one that started the season 3-4 and had everyone thinking the sky was falling - then the one that went 7-0 as their defense got healthy, made some personnel switches, and complemented an offense that found a way to still be great against cover-2, and then the team at the end that sleepwalked a bit. Hard to know which is the real team - the one that has the highest ceiling of any in the AFC (in theory), or the one that has shown some weaknesses. If there is a team to test the weakness angle, the Steelers don't really seem like it - one that is mediocre in nearly every way - in conventional stats, advanced stats, in the red zone, on 3rd down. The only strong suit seems to be red zone defense (5th), but truly everything is a struggle, especially if their opponent can block TJ Watt, Heyward and Co. The defense itself is near average for the first itme in a long time in DVOA (14th overall), and nothing points to them being anything other than the 7th seed in a world where two years ago that wouldn't be a playoff tema.
The Matchup: That said, the line seems high to me. The Chiefs biggest weakness on offense is in the red zone, where they rank just 13th. There is a world where they have a lot of long, successful drives (their 1st in yds an pts per drive) but end it with a field goal. The Steelers offense isn't really set-up to even be able to compete with that too well on their offensive side. On that side of the ball you have the 25th ranked offense by DVOA against the 24th ranked defense, but in weighted DVOA which over-weights later games, the Chiefs move up to 13th, while the Steelers are more or less the same. Their only real hope is to score TDs and score 20+ and given how feeble they look even in their late season wins it is hard to see a path there.
The Pick: I think the Steelers keep it a bit closer than the line, mainly because I hate picking double digit favorites in playoff games, and I do think the Chiefs lackluster red zone offense can hurt them. Also, the Chiefs overly rely on fumbles which often dry up at the worst times. Still they're more than good enough to win this, but I woukdn't be surprised if the score is less of a clear margin than we would like. Steelers 17 Chiefs 26 (PIT +12.5)
(N5) Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ (N4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Mon, 8:15 - ESPN | LAR -4.0
State of the Teams: The biggest story of this game is likely the absence of DeAndre Hopkins and the unlikely (at this point) return of JJ Watt. That's a big issue. The Cardinals passing offense is way better with Hopkins playing, but then again in the matchup this season where the Cardinals won, Hopkins wasn't a huge factor. They ran all over the Rams in taht matchup and are healthy up front, enabling them in theory to do it again. The Rams are interesting, aside from random spates of turnovers nothing is wrong with their profile statistically. They are average at worst, and good at best at about everything. If we peak somewhere, the Rams third down defense isn't all that great, which could be interesting against what I imagine would be a run heavy approach for the Cardinals.
The Matchup: That last bit is why I think the Cardinals have a decent shot here. Their biggest advantage is running the ball against the Rams relatively up and down run defense. The Rams run defense hasn't been bad, but is very much either great (<70 yards) or porous (>150 yards), including giving up 216 yards on teh ground in the first matchup. The Cardinals defense has the ability to get some pressure on Stafford as they did in both matchups as well, and post Robert Woods, I actually think the Cardinals defense matches up fairly well, as they limited him to 5 catches for 64 yards in teh first matchup - notably though way less success in teh second one. I don't know man, I've reached this point without picking an upset, is all I'm saying....
The Pick: So, I'm picking the Cardinals here. I think they were closer in the second matchup to winning as well, and I just trust them to run well in this game, even with the threat of DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals have highs just as high as the Rams. On the whole, I'm just not a huge fan of the Rams, and generally think the coaching matchup here is a bit closer than people think, especially the McVay offense vs. Vance Joseph defense side. But at the end I'm picking this like 75% because I just need one upset... Cardinals 23 Rams 20 (ARZ +4.0)
If my picks hold - divisional round:
(A4) Bengals @ (A1) Titans
(A3) Bills @ (A2) Chiefs
(N5) Cardinals @ (N1) Packers
(N3) Cowboys @ (N2) Buccaneers
