(A4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) @ (A1) Tennessee Titans (12-5)
4:30 - CBS | TEN -3.5
State of the Teams: Let's start off the bat, it is a bit surprising to see the line so low. A lot has been said about the Titans being one of the weaker #1 seeds in a long time, and by DVOA they very much are, ranking 20th in Offensive DVOA and 7th in Defensive. However, let's break this down. When they were fully healthy (Henry aside) they started 8-2, sweeping Indy and beating KC, Buffalo and the Rams in that stretch. Later in the season they even picked up a win against the 49ers. That resume of scalps, coupled with a team that still ended the year in the Top-10 in the red zone and on third down for both offense and defense. The Bengals are a bit their opposite, ranking outside the Top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, beating up mostly on bad teams and prior to their playoff win having only one notable win (over KC) with two close losses to playoff teams. Both teams are relatively healthy, especially the Titans who finally have their ideal set of skill position players back.
The Matchup: The best element of the Bengals is their pass offense, but even that has a weakness in their offensive line. It was fine against the Raiders, but the Titans have a top-10 ranked pressure and sack rate. There's a real potential here where Landry, Autry, Simmons and Co. get off on Burrow on the OL of the Bengals. Everything else really points to the Titans here, from their ability to win close games agianst good teams, their stronger red zone and 3rd down potential. The Bengals pass defense is generally good at taking away one, maybe two, weapons but with Brown and Jones both back you would think the Titans can scheme around Awuzie taking away Brown, let's say. There is also the chance a healthy, returning, Henry goes off agianst a bottom-half run defense.
The Pick: I may be overcomplicating things but I think there is something to be said about the healthy, home team that is the #1 seed deserving to be more than a 3.5 point favorite against a team that needed a goal line interception to beat a bad team. More than that, we have a team that has gone 4-0 against the other 7 teams playing in the divisional round (beat 49ers, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs) and all but one of those were fairly convincing. They don't spit out pretty numbers, even after their 8-2 start, but the Titans are to me quite a bit better than what people peg them as. Bengals 20 Titans 31 (TEN -3.5)
(N6) San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ (N1) Green Bay Packers (13-4)
8:15 - FOX | GB -6.0
State of the Teams: This seems to be a great game on paper, especially when you look past the 49ers ugly record and remember they were down 17-0 at halftime of a must-win game to just make the playoffs. But in reality, the 49ers grade out very well, a Top-10 team be DVOA on offense and defense, the league's best red zone offense (yeah, surprised about that too), and truly not bad in any real area. There are some injury question marks, both with Joey Bosa needing to clear concussion protocols, and whatever is going on with Jimmy G's shoulder. On the Packers side, they're basically the league's best offense from an efficiency perspective, grading near the top in yards, points and success rate per drive. Their defense is about average with a few potential strengths, both against the pass and on 3rd down which might be key against a team in San Francisco that loves long drives. The biggest question mark really is the magnitude of the potential bounce up by Green Bay with guys like Jaire Alexander, Zadarius Smith and maybe David Bakhtiari. If all those guys are back and ready, they are golden.
The Matchup: What may decide the game is the fact the 49ers are the league's best red zone offense, and the Packers are one of the worst red zone defenses. Granted, I hyper focused on this in my preview of the Raiders @ Bengals, and while I ended up with the right pick the Bengals kicked three field goals in the red zone. But here that advantage, and the 49ers top-5 rush offense agianst Green Bay's bottom-5 rush defnese also looms large. Bakhtiari back will help the Packers give Rodgers a bit more time against what has become a pretty dynamic pass rush these past six games or so. The 49ers do struggle against top receivers, so Adams could have a huge game, just as he did by the end of their early season matchup. The Packers skill may still win out but the fact that they play low-possession games given their lack of turnovers probably helps the 49ers in many ways.
The Pick: In the end, the 49ers are a really bad matchup for Green Bay, a run-forward team with excellent red zone success is the recipe to both shorten the game and force the Packers offense to be every bit as hyper efficient as they can be. Well, I do think the Packers can be efficient enough, whether its their own red zone offense, or just not giving the 49ers short fields like the Cowboys did too many times. The return of Zadarius Smith should add ballast to a pass rush that can force a mistake or two out of Garoppolo. In the end, the 49ers are good enough to keep this close, but I think the Packers do eke it out, much like their earlier matchup. 49ers 21 Packers 26 (SF +6.0)
(N4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5) @ (N2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
3:00 - NBC | TB -3.0
State of the Teams: As always, injuries take central focus, with both Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen being game time decisions. I'll split the difference and assume one plays - definitely seems like Jensen is more likely than Wirfs. The only other major injury question is if Leonard Fournette can return, but as the Rams are a top-5 rush defense by DVOA it may not much matter. The key to the game will be the Rams ability to generate pressure on Brady, somethign they did well in their win last year, but didn't do all that much of this year despite their win. The Rams seem mostly fully healthy at this point. The Rams are on a high after their blowout win but at this point have to be rueing their blown game in Week 17 which would've put this matchup in Los Angeles instead of Tampa. The Bucs have been great at home all year aside from the loss to the Saints, but we only have to go back a year with largely the same teams (aside from Staley being the DC) to see hte Rams winning in Tampa.
The Matchup: Both teams grade out well by all advanced metrics, but the Rams are rising fast, now ranking 3rd in weighted defensive DVOA, against a Bucs offense that ranks #2 in weighted DVOA but still doesn't really show the losses of Godwin and Brown (not to mention the OL guys who may or may not play). At full strength the Bucs have the matchup edges, be it a #2 ranked 3rd down and red zone offense, and an OL that can neutralize the Rams biggest advantage with their pass rush of Donald, Miller and Floyd (especially now that Miller has rounded into form). On the other side, it really comes down to turnovers. The Rams rank 13th in weighted offensive DVOA, but so much of that is their higher turnover count. They are #4 in yards and points per drive (the Bucs are #5 in both on offense) but turnovers drag their overall numbers down. If Stafford plays a clean game, like he did in their Week 3 matchup, they are very tough to stop, but aside from the Wild Card game, he's rarely been so faultless. If there is a hidden edge, its the Rams advantage on Special Teams, now ranking as the league's best unit, vs a Bucs unit that is just average.
The Pick: In the end, I'm going off the assumption one of the two lineman will play, and therefore I do think the Bucs will get just enough pass protection for Brady to score enough. I do think Stafford will throw a pick or there will be a turnover, and while the Rams red zone defense is good, teh Bucs red zone offense is elite, and that will win the day. Rams 23 Buccaneers 27 (TB -3.0)
(A3) Buffalo Bills (11-6) @ (A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
6:35 - CBS | KC -2.5
State of the Teams
The Matchup
The Pick
