2021 NFL Playoffs: Conference Title Game Review

Players of the Week: Cooper Kupp & Odell Beckham, Jr (WRs, LAR)

Yeah, for the second straight week I'm going to give co-players. At least this time both won the game (unlike my pick of Mahomes & Allen last week). With Van Jefferson seemingly in witness protection, Tyler Higbee injured, and the running game giving the Rams less than nothing, we're left with two great receivers who played great. Kupp was insane as always - his ability to get open deep to turn around to catch balls at the exact right second, to get open against a variety of coverages. All of it is special. For OBJ, this was the type of game the Rams got him for and the type of game most thought he had left behind. It was just great to watch him play that way.

Runner-Up: Trey Hendrickson (DE, CIN)

The whole Bengals defense was insane in that second half, but Hendrickson takes the cake. Double teamed often given the Bengals resorted to rushing just three half the time, he was monstrous against the Chiefs. Pressuring Mahomes, chasing into eventual sacks, getting his hands up which further got Mahomes rattled and avoided risky throws. The Bengals needed their star FA pass rusher to show up huge and he (along with a great performance from Sam Hubbard) did just that.

Goat of the Week: Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

I have to be blunt, that second half was the worst I've ever seen Mahomes play. More than looking lost, he looked nervous. I don't know if it was the mental screwup at the end of the 1st half, or the pick on the screen pass, but Mahomes just was off. Missing easy throws, sailing balls high, running into sacks against 3-man pressures with ample time to just throw it away. Some of it is on Andy Reid and the offense as a whole for not adjusting, but in the end it just seemed like Mahomes was just way too nervous to throw against those 8-man zones.

Runner-Up: Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)

I geniunely think Garoppolo perfermed at a 'goat' like level but also was better than the trainwreck some made him out to be. The actual game-ending interception was a desperation throw to avoid a 4th & 20+ and did hit the hands of his receiver first. That said, he was bad, despite good protection for a majority of the game. He missed a wide open Kittle on the first drive that would've immediately put them in close to field goal range. He did his normal thing of throwing five brutally high risk throws that just make you scream. Some bad team is getting a decent QB in Garoppolo but it is clear why Shanahan thinks he must need to upgrade.

Surprise of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Line

Has to be, right? After the nine sacks, against a pass rush that put pressure on the Bills consistently and seemed to have matchup advantages everywhere, the Bengals were more than adequate. It helped with Burrow being extra-quick to get rid of the ball in the first half, but to allow just one sack (and only like two real 'escapes' by Burrow) is incredible. They were also able to get gains in the run game, specifically on the game winning drive giving Mixon tons of space. For as decent as they were, they will need to be downright good in the Super Bowl to have any chance. But that's a concern for another day.

Runner-Up: Los Angeles Rams rush defense

The Rams aren't a bad rush defense. If anything most metrics put them in the Top-5. They are, however, a highly variable one that has had some notable bad spots. They gave up 291 yards rushing in the two losses to the 49ers in the regular season - and had struggles against Arizona, Baltimore and other good rushing teams. Here, they slammed the door from teh start. Giving up just 50 yards on 20 carries, turning the 49ers into a one-dimensional unit from the start. They should always be this good, in reality, and in a big spot they very much were.

Disappointment of the Week: San Francisco 49ers playcalling

The 49ers just haven't learned how to play with a lead yet, or more pointedly, Shanahan hasn't. In Super Bowl LI it was not running the ball when they were fine just doing so when up 28-3. In Super Bowl LIV it was similar against KC when up 20-10 - though granted Garoppolo missed some makeable throws. Here, it was not abandoning the run when they were getting nothing, or leaning more on Deebo runs that were having way more success than anything with Mitchell. Also there was nothing quick, nothing easy for Jimmy in that second half. Shanahan really has to figure out these late game situations.

Runner-Up: Andy Reid's lack of adjustments

The Chiefs acted like facing an 8-man zone with a 3-man rush was a new strategy invented by Cincinnati. While the strategy has worked in the past at times, I've often heard people say it is death to try that against a great QB, that sooner or later someone will get open. Well, maybe it was Mahomes being hesitant to throw at times, but I also don't think Andy schemed people open enough. He also got away from the run, which is a great tool against a 3-man rush to at least get your 5-7 yards - something they were doing consistently in the first half and in the Divisional Round.. That was a meltdown across the board for KC, but not helped by Reid.

Team Performance of the Week: Bengals secondary

I already credited the front and particularly Trey Hendrickson earlier, but the drop-8 strategy also fails if the eight, and more markedly the 5-6 DBs in that, don't ahve the stamina and shadowing ability to hold up for 5-8 seconds on any given play. It is insane how much time Mahomes had frequently in that second half with just no one coming open. Yes, the refs were letting it play more than normal, but still keeping up with the Chiefs speed and skill guys for those durations is commendable. As is Jessie Bates who from the pick to end the Wild Card game, to the tip to cause the OT pick here, was massive.

Runner-Up: Bengals coaching staff

Yeah, I'm letting go of this game just yet. You can say the Chiefs blew it, and they most certainly did, but the Bengals coaching staff able to not lose script and keep things calm while making sensible adjustments when falling down 21-3 on the road is so, so impressive. Zak Taylor gets so little respect but he crafted a game-plan that focused on Burrow getting rid of the ball quick and utilizing guys who weren't JaMarr Chase so well. On defense we've talked about the bet to go dropping eight and figuring that it would throw off the timing. The defense has been well coached for weeks now, playing above its collective level by having no real weak link. Just such a great job.

Team Laydown of the Week: 49ers offensive line

Yes the Rams is a tough assignment, and they did fairly well for 45 minutes, but in that fourth quarter, whether it was getting a yard or two to extend a drive (admittedly, Shanahan wimped out by punting) or giving Jimmy any time on the last two drives, the 49ers picked a terrible time to start losing every matchup up front. It was even from the guys that were great all season like Trent Williams giving up pressures. I could've probably picked the Chiefs offense here, but I've already picked Mahomes as goat and talked about Reid's bad playcalling. It was really the sudden collapse of the 49ers OL that killed any chance the 49ers had.

Runner-Up: McVay's game management

I know they won the game, but I've never seen a coach just throw away timeouts and challenges like that. The first challenge is defensible, trying to overturn a turnover on downs - but those change of spot plays on a QB sneak will almost never get changed. The final challenge, and the final timeout that came with it, was incredibly dumb. I have no idea who told McVay they should challenge, or even if McVay just did it himself. His issues compound on each other - he's always been one to be OK throwing away timeouts more than others, and then doing so with that challenge. It is amazing it did not come back to bit him at all.

Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground: The Rams going "All In"

This is a worthy storyline because it is very much what the Rams did. They trade a lot for Stafford (and Jalen Ramsey before that). They traded some more for Von. But they also did things on the cheap - OBJ wasn't a huge risk given his pay at this point. The defense is largely homegrown on the backend aside from Ramsey and has played admirably. The OL is homegrown aside from Whitworth and has done so well to give Stafford time. They've developed Kupp so well. On the whole, the Rams built a great roster in house and added to it brilliantly. They didn't just go full stars and scrubs.

Storyline that Should be Beat into the Ground: Joe Burrow's Ascendance

Burrow might run the risk of getting overhyped, but I've also seen some people somewhat criticize him in a 'he's getting lucky' sort of way, talking about the six INTs his defense has given him - many at crucial moments, or the high sack rate, and the failings in teh red zone. But we have to realize just how bad the OL is most of the time. We also ahve to realize this was a 2-win team two years ago, and a 4-win team last year. They;ve upgraded in many places but playoff Burrow is not the full formed man. And if he's had some Brady-esque circa 2001, 2003, performances here, he was also a monster at everything aside from sacks in the regular season. He is very much a star, and this is a sheer sign of it.

Hall of Blame, Revisited

9 years ago, back in 2013, I wrote a post around the fact that in the first year where we had Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds (and Sammy Sosa) eligible for the HOF, not only were they not elected, but no one was. 9 years later, on their last year on the ballot, neither Bonds or Clemens got elected. From about 35% of the vote in 2013, they went up to around 65% nine years later, but now it is done. They'll leave the ballot next year, go into the never ending purgatory that is playing the Veterans Committee game. More sad than them not being elected, is that pretty much everything I wrote in 2013 still applies today.

Yes, 30% more people voted for them now than at the start, but some of that is do to a culling and refresh of the voter list - new voters being younger more likely to vote for Clemens & Bonds than the olds. But in reality both quickly got above 50% on their third ballot and then just hit a ceiling. It was basically decided a long time ago the museum of baseball (and yes, that is effectively what the HoF is) would not include Bonds and Clemens.

Forget the hypocrisy that there are very likely steroid users (and for sure amphetamine users) already in the hall, but we are deep enough into the era that David Ortiz, who is credibly connected to steroids, got in and Alex Rodriguez on his first year got more than Bonds or Clemens did on theirs. This issue is sadly not going away.

I don't feel for Bonds or Clemens - I'm sure they'll live. What I feel for is the large proportion of rational baseball fans who don't care about making morality judgements and just want Cooperstown to, you know, honor the history of baseball. We can't just pretend that this 20 year period where we abritrarily decided was the start of the steroid era (steroid use of course is documented back into the 70s) didn't happen. And we definitely can't when we've inducted managers who benefitted by managing steroid users (Joe Torre, and more starkly Tony LaRussa - who bristled when a reporter dared to ask Mark McGwire why he was using andro). And for sure we can't when fucking Bud Selig is in the Hall of Fame - the same man who led baseball to turning a blind eye when steroid-induced home run chases saved baseball.

The hypocrisy of this whole era and putting it on the feet of Bonds and Clemens (and seemingly A-Rod) is just maddening. Who is it helping. They should have just put them in and put a note on the plaque saying they were highly suspected (or in A-Rod's case, suspended for) of steroid use. That was such a senisble workaround but instead we got this grandstanding.

It was grandstanding from Joe Morgan writing a scathing, ridiculous open letter about how sanctified the Hall of Fame is and why Bonds and Clemens have no right to be there - despite of course the many outright racists and greenie users and mysoginists are already in. It was grandstanding from a decades worth of sportswriters that turned this into a farce, submitting blank ballots or even worse ballots with like one or two people checked off who weren't even all that good. 

And the Hall of Fame itself isn't absolved of blame here. They notably changed the rules to go from a 15-year eligibility limit to 10-year, which has massive effects as by year 15, enough of the voting roll would've changed to likely get Bonds and Clemens elected.

At some point fairly soon, some father or mother taking their son and/or daughter to a trip through Cooperstown will get asked by said kid "Who hit the most home runs?" or some such and willl have to go through some hilarious gymnastics on why the answer to that question is not in the Hall of Fame (of course the baseball he hit that broke Aaron's record or other records of Barry's very much are...).

In the end, the Hall of Fame only makes itself look stupid, and frankly baseball does this to itself. Not because steroids weren't a problem. They were, and the game cleaned itself up, but it isn't like the game wasn't fully supportive of that problem at the time. It is an era of the game, like the dead-ball era, or the post-Jackie era, or the modern three-true outcome era. It is stupid to just rip out an era of history like they've done.

I will never understand the strategy here to exclude two of the greatest players, two players that everyone admits were hall of famers before the years we all believe they started using steroids (around 97 for Clemens, 99 for Bonds). We'll get to the point where an inducted player admits that they took steroids, and we'll all realize, hopefully no more than the sportswriters that brought this on themselves, on how stupid it all was.

The Great Game: Bills @ Chiefs

Even two days later, I'm not really sure how best to accurately describe that magical game we saw Sunday night between the Chiefs and Bills. Going into the weekend we all thought it was the best game on paper. Then the first three games of the weekend all ended with a game-winning field goal on the last play, so it was hard to expect this one then to do anything but disappoint. I mean, what were the odds of this game being that good when the first three already were? Well, as we would see many times during the game, beating the odds is all Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes know how to do.

What is crazy is on merit, even entering the two minute warning where the Bills would score on the subsequent play, you could make the argument it already was the best played game of the weekend. Starting with the very first two drives featuring two long, well executed, exacting TD drives by each team, the game was played at a superior level.

Heading into that two-minute warning, it was a tight 26-21. We had yet to see a turnover or even a pass that was close to a turnover, but it wasn't like the defenses were terrible. They were great. Both dlines got constant pressure on Mahomes and Allen, getting multiple sacks each and making both QBs pull off a series of incredible Houdini-escapes to avoid a half-dozen sacks each. Both defenses also excelled in tackling quick and well, limiting YAC, forcing two offenses that would rather go medium to deep every play be patient and perfect - and for long stretches both were.

Going into that two-minute warning, that was about as well played a playoff game you will ever see, in a great building with a great atmosphere, with storylines all over the place. It was the rare great game where each unit - as in both teams offenses and defenses - played well and had their moments, from Mahomes general brilliance, to Allen finally breaking the shackles of the Chiefs defense with the bomb to Davis for a TD right after the Chiefs took a 9-point lead. That by itself truly was an enjoyable, memorable, supremely well played, tight, taught football game. One that was on the way to leaving me very happy.

And then those last two minutes happened.

Those last two minutes plus the Chiefs drive in OT turned a great game into an epic masterpiece, one with as many 'holy God' moments as any game since the sneakily similar (OT aside) 2011 Divisional between the 49ers and Saints. What also makes it all the better was the plays were mostly insane execution by the respective offenses, and incredible showcases of individual talent, rather than breakdowns and errors.

It was a ridiculously clean run route that gave us Davis's 3rd TD to go up 27-26, adn Allen scrambling, staying poised, and hitting Diggs who beautifully toe tapped his way to a big two point conversion. It was of course the all time skill that is Tyreek Hill's speed to run away from the Bills fast defense on the weaving 61-yard TD to give the Chiefs the lead right back. It wasn't a bomb, it wasn't busted coverage, it was a singular talent showing it.

It was a great, poised drive by Allen with calm throws to Davis, Sanders and Davis again beautifully splitting the Chiefs cover-2 to seemingly win it. And if that was the last moment of the Bills offense, they did in that moment. They went to the home of the most dynamic QB and dynamic offense in the NFL and played them toe-to-toe. They somehow left too much time.

For a quick personal aside, most playoffs my family suddenly gets more involved than normal in football. My parents, sister and her fiance all watched the Rams, Bucs game while I was out trying to forget it was all going on. Mentally drained after that ridiculous ending, my sister and fiance stepped away. My Dad and I watched, and were heavily enjoying the well played first half, when we finally convinced my sister to sit and watch the second half.

Great execution bored her, but from the second Allen bombed that 75-yard TD, she was into it. And even more than myself and my Dad, she watched those last four regular time drives with unending glee, from Allen's scrambles, to teh two Davis TDs to Tyreek's brilliance. All of it just lapped up. She then asked me if I thought 13 seconds was enough time. I said, no, it probably wasn't even with the timeouts. I was wrong. I will never doubt Mahomes again.

Not only was 13 seconds enough time, looking back it felt easy. Yes, the Bills arguably messed up by not squibbing, and messed up more by their weird coverage on the last play, but as NFL Films so perfectly captured, it was an on-the-fly route adjustment by Kelce that allowed him to get that open - and Mahomes was with him the whole way. Another example of just the amazing level of play.

To me, this was the best Divisional Round game I have ever seen. It combined both an incredible level of play by both teams, with them running that level of play for the entire game, with the many 'Holy Crap' moments that befit many of the other great Divisional Games (see your 2006 Patriots @ Chargers, or the aforementioned 2011 Saints @ 49ers, and of course even I would admit the 2012 Ravens @ Broncos game). It was unending, it was incredible, and it was the rare game that had hype, that we all wanted to be special and was every bit as special if not way better than anyone could have ever hoped.

In the end, thank you Bills and Chiefs, thank you Sean McDermott and Andy Reid, for coaching your teams so well to put on a display of how to play a well executed game for 58 minutes. Thank you to the brilliance of so many players for that insane ending. Thank you to the Arrowhead crowd for bringing life and joy to the game - another beautiful moment to showcase how nice it has been to have fans again. But most of all, thank you to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for playing so peerlessly, an adjective that is ironically inaccurate in this case since they were each others peer. Both scrambling out of sacks, both rushing for 60+ yards on both called and uncalled runs, both showcasing their generational arms, and of course doing it while the other was pushing the stakes higher and higher. 

NFL Films caught another great moment where after the game Patrick Mahomes almost immediately started running away from his team celebrating in the end zone to seek Josh Allen out. Many he saw Allen as a kindred spirit, having to lose a playoff game in OT without touching the ball - much like Mahomes himself had to live with in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. Well, when he reached Allen, he gave him a long embrance and they exchanged the usual words, but smack in the middle of their interaction was Mahomes saying 'we're going to do this a lot'. I and every NFL fan hopes so.

2021 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Review

Player of the Week: Josh Allen (QB, BUF) & Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Yeah, I had to give it to both of them, because if the coin came up heads, Allen and the Bills likely win and I do the exact same thing. I'll probably write about that game later in the week, the true masterpiece that it was, but for now let's just extol the two QBs. It is fair to do so due to the incredible performance of each, from escaping sacks and extending plays in the first half when both defenses were locked in. For the series of ridiculous throws, from Mahomes side-arm nonsene to the cannon that was the 75-yard TD to Gibson. From each of the incredible moments late. Just bravo to both of them, and as always hope this is just the first of many. We are so blessed as football fans to have both of these insane players and that each, adn their teams, gifted us with that bounty.

Runner-Up: Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Stafford himself had a great game - quietly maybe as good a game in a sense to Allen, but I want to call out Kupp for being able to still beat coverage this late into this season. It is insane that he always seems to be able to get open, whether its deep on the TD or the final pass, or short t move the chains. That game was insane and very much needed given how everyone else in the Rams seemed content to throw the game away.

Goat of the Week: Packers Special Teams

Has to be, right? Even if the Packers offense did not show themselves well at all, they would have won the game, and fairly comfortably in the end, if the Packers special teams didn't put up an all time bad playoff performance. The block field goal was simply just terrible execution - and while that would ahve just made it 10-3, the 49ers were in really poor shape after Garoppolo's brutal pick and that would have been a huge three points. The block punt is worse. Truly, that was their game before that moment. There were also bad returns coverage as well. This team's worst aspect just cratered in the biggest moment. Teams have lost on special teams miscues before - my own Colts in Manning's last game as a Colt were guilty of this giving up a long kickoff return after taking a 16-14 lead with 30 seconds left. This was worse, this was truly special.

Runner-Up: Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

I had this problem a couple times earlier when we had weeks where each game was good and reasonably well played. The last one I remember was the 2015 Divisional Round, where each home team won by six or seven points. In this case, even Tannehill wasn't terrible, as two of the interceptions were not fully on him. But man were his picks just killers - from the very first play of the game (talk about not setting the tone - and that was a brutal throw), to the tipped screen pass on 1st and Goal that took away their chance to build a bit of a lead. Of course the last pick cost them the game in the end, and while that was more about a great play by the Bengals secondary, at the end of the day, in Tannehill's second biggest game of his career (2019 AFC Title Game being the other) he came up small.

Surprise of the Week: 49ers Secondary

The 49ers front seven is great, and they were great, so more on them later. But the fact that their secondary did so well bottling up Adams after that first drive, keeping everything in front, tackling well, getting in passing lanes. They weren't perfect by any means as Rodgers did throw away open receivers chasing big plays, but for what is the weakness of the team (granted, they're good at everything) the secondary played great and will need to repeat that level against the Rams.

Runner-Up: Kansas City running game

Nothing else was too surprising, so I went with the running game here, both with Mahomes but also Edwards-Helaire who played well in his first action in weeks, and Jerrick McKinnon in consistently picking up 3-5 yards to get them ahead of the sticks. It really impacted the Bills plan - which worked for most of the game - to limit the passing game by playing zone. The Bills did that and until the last portions of madness were limiting Mahomes to about 10ypc, but when they're always in 2nd and 6 that isn't good enough to end drives. The Chiefs OL did a great job run blocking and they were able to keep the game moving really nicely.

Disappointment of the Week: Rams sphincter clenching

It is just staggering how talented, well coached teams, just refuse to keep any semblance of control when faced with the prospect of actually beating Tom Brady. For as bad as the Falcons collapse in the Super Bowl was, this was arguably worse (though of course, they still won). The fumbles, the missed field goal - and to miss it SHORT. The fumble at the goal line, which was bad luck more than a bad play. The stupid snap that propelled back 30 yards. All of it was maddening. Thank god the Rams still won that game, but it amazes me how poor teams get when all they need to do is play decent football. Gives me a new respect for the Manning teams, Harbaugh's Ravens, the Shanahan Broncos and other teams that didn't turtle when up on Brady's teams.

Runner-Up: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Rodgers didn't play terribly, but for a guy that is about to win his fourth MVP in a couple weeks, that was a mystifying sloppy game. I get the 49ers are a great defense but as the All-22 showed, many times he just passed up open players, including on the ill-fated 3rd and 11 bomb to a double covered Devante Adams. The worrying sign is that type of play, holding on too long not going with open guys waiting for one of his favorites to get open deeper, is exactly the type of nonsense that took over Rodgers's game the last few McCarthy years. It turned a brilliant player into one that wasn't nearly as great as his numbers in 2016-2018. I do hope this isn't a full reversal the first sign of struggle under Lafleur.

Team Performance of the Week: 49ers front seven

That was about a good front seven performance as you can have. Five sacks, numerous more pressures leading to throwaways and short throws. When those short throws happened they clamped down, with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw both having brilliant games. This was a throwback to the 2019 49ers defense, or better yet the 2011-13 49ers defenses. Bosa and Armstead were great, but so were their depth guys on the defensive front. If you take away the 75 yard catch by Aaron Jones from a busted coverage on a scramble, Rodgers wen 19-28 for 150 yards - that 150 from 19 catches is all to a defensive that gang tackled as good as any. The 49ers had no business winning that game, but the only reason they could steal it was from a defense that covered up so much.

Runner-Up: Rams pass rush

If the Rams were going to win, they needed a great game from their pass rush, a job made easier by the fact Tristan Wirfs was out. Well, the Rams certainly got a great game from their pass rush, a performance good enough that if not for like twenty different Rams mistakes, they would have won more than comfortably. Donald was his usual great self, especially the few times he was moved outside Leonard Floyd had a great game after a pretty quiet year. Von Miller is continuing his renaissance, just abusing Donovan Smith in what for Brady must have been a bad case of dejavu from the 2015 AFC Championship where he was doing the same things over and over. That is the pass rush of a Super Bowl champion.

Team Laydown of the Week: Tennessee Running Game

I should probably exclude D'Onta Freeman who had 65 yards on 4 carries, but Henry was a nothing in the playoffs again, going 20-62. However, what was more worrying was how often he was met in the backfield. How little time he had to manuever. Tannehill provided nothing as a runner. The Titans invest a lot in the OLine and it didn't show up for a second straight playoff game following their awful performance against Baltimore last year. It seems clear, really, that this offense cannot function at top value if the running game is not working, and if they feel compelled to get it to work - which is why with Henry back but not operating at top efficiency, things fell apart quick.

Runner-Up: Cincinnati Offensive Line

Yeah, they won, and yes, Burrow himself needs to improve on getting rid of the ball, or at least not turning five yard sacks into fifteen yard sacks, but man was that OL terrible against the Titans. Pass rushers running free from every gap. Basically every lineman losing his one on one matchup consistently throughout. With a better QB in the pocket, instead of 9 sacks for 68 yards, maybe its 4 sacks for 22 yards, but either way it is nowhere near good enough and is only now going to get tougher against frankly a better defensive front that did great work against a better OL in Buffalo. In the Bengals have any chance they'll need that line to ball out.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: The OT Rules

Look, I get it, on its face it seems dumb that a team can lose in OT without touching the ball. The rule change in 2010 that made it so you can't win on a FG made it better, but over ten years not much so: the team that receives first in OT is 10-1 in the playoffs, granted in three occasions that team didn't win on its first drive. The big difference as I see it is playoff offenses are generally good, and therefore more likely to score a TD than in the regular season.

Then again, I don't think the idea is to just have the second team get a chance, as hten there is a massive advantage to being the second team: you know what you need. If the Chiefs score a TD, then the Bills would've gotten a chance while also knowing they can go for any 4th down and effectively run a drive knowing they have four tries for a first down.

Personally, I've come away from my pet idea (not uniquely mine) of an auction where the more aggressive team to say they'll start from further back gets the ball, but to just extend the game and play to the clock ends - maybe its 10 minutes, maybe its 15 minutes, but just keep playing. I don't see much against it. Yes, in theory team #1 still has a bit of an advantage (less so in a 15 minute period), because they are still more likely to get more possessions, but at some point you have to draw the line. Everyone complaining about the rules are correct, but they need to answer what it should be and answer to the issues with everyone's favorite idea of just letting team 2 get the ball.

Storyline that will Deservedly be Beat Into the Ground: Best Divisional Weekend Ever

We'll see this a lot, and it is absolutely true. Yesterday is probably not the best single day of football ever just because of you get a Championship Game Sunday with two great games that will supersede a Divisional Weekend day (look back to 2018 and you have one that arguably was better, that or 2011 for sure). But as far as a whole weekend, this is the best. The 'bad' game featured either a walk-off win by the Bengals, or an amazing defensive effort in a snow game in Lambeau (arguably best setting in football). There was that comedy of errors in Tampa, which was elevated given the historical implications of basically any Tom Brady game. And of course that masterpiece to cap it all off. Even if the Bills won that 36-33, it was an all time game. It was an all time weekend. The only close ones recently were 2003 (4th and 26 game, great Chiefs-v-Colts shootout, the Panthers 2OT win over the Rams) or 2006 (Marty's last game for San Diego, two 27-24 games in the NFC side, including one in OT). But this was insane, each game being one on the last snap. Each game having a field goal with implications at the gun. It was so memorable, so good after a wild card weekend of duds. It was why we all love football and keep coming back.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: Can the NFC Bring it finally

The NFC hosts the second title game, e.g. the main event in boxing/UFC parlance, in odd-number seasons. From 2007 through 2013, each time the NFC had their game they delivered with a beauty - from the Giants wins in Lambeau and Candlestick in OT, to the Saints over Minnesta OT epic, to maybe the best played of any with the Seahawks picking off the 49ers at the end. It is not hyperbole to say that given the stakes these are some of the most important, memorable playoff games of the last 15 years. Since then the NFC has had the second game three more times, and they were absolute duds, despite being the #1 v #2 each time - with the Panthers, Eagles and 49ers blowing out the Cardinals, Vikings and Packers respectively. Well, for the Rams and 49ers you have your shot to carry the torch for your conference. Give us round three of a great rivalry, give us something close to the show these two put out in Week 18. Give us a great ride in the last 'real' game of football that isn't at some whitewashed neutral site.

2021 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

(A4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)  @  (A1) Tennessee Titans (12-5)

4:30 - CBS  |  TEN -3.5

State of the Teams: Let's start off the bat, it is a bit surprising to see the line so low. A lot has been said about the Titans being one of the weaker #1 seeds in a long time, and by DVOA they very much are, ranking 20th in Offensive DVOA and 7th in Defensive. However, let's break this down. When they were fully healthy (Henry aside) they started 8-2, sweeping Indy and beating KC, Buffalo and the Rams in that stretch. Later in the season they even picked up a win against the 49ers. That resume of scalps, coupled with a team that still ended the year in the Top-10 in the red zone and on third down for both offense and defense. The Bengals are a bit their opposite, ranking outside the Top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, beating up mostly on bad teams and prior to their playoff win having only one notable win (over KC) with two close losses to playoff teams. Both teams are relatively healthy, especially the Titans who finally have their ideal set of skill position players back.

The Matchup: The best element of the Bengals is their pass offense, but even that has a weakness in their offensive line. It was fine against the Raiders, but the Titans have a top-10 ranked pressure and sack rate. There's a real potential here where Landry, Autry, Simmons and Co. get off on Burrow on the OL of the Bengals. Everything else really points to the Titans here, from their ability to win close games agianst good teams, their stronger red zone and 3rd down potential. The Bengals pass defense is generally good at taking away one, maybe two, weapons but with Brown and Jones both back you would think the Titans can scheme around Awuzie taking away Brown, let's say. There is also the chance a healthy, returning, Henry goes off agianst a bottom-half run defense.

The Pick: I may be overcomplicating things but I think there is something to be said about the healthy, home team that is the #1 seed deserving to be more than a 3.5 point favorite against a team that needed a goal line interception to beat a bad team. More than that, we have a team that has gone 4-0 against the other 7 teams playing in the divisional round (beat 49ers, Rams, Bengals, Chiefs) and all but one of those were fairly convincing. They don't spit out pretty numbers, even after their 8-2 start, but the Titans are to me quite a bit better than what people peg them as. Bengals 20  Titans 31  (TEN -3.5)

(N6) San Francisco 49ers (10-7)  @  (N1) Green Bay Packers (13-4)

8:15 - FOX  |  GB -6.0

State of the Teams: This seems to be a great game on paper, especially when you look past the 49ers ugly record and remember they were down 17-0 at halftime of a must-win game to just make the playoffs. But in reality, the 49ers grade out very well, a Top-10 team be DVOA on offense and defense, the league's best red zone offense (yeah, surprised about that too), and truly not bad in any real area. There are some injury question marks, both with Joey Bosa needing to clear concussion protocols, and whatever is going on with Jimmy G's shoulder. On the Packers side, they're basically the league's best offense from an efficiency perspective, grading near the top in yards, points and success rate per drive. Their defense is about average with a few potential strengths, both against the pass and on 3rd down which might be key against a team in San Francisco that loves long drives. The biggest question mark really is the magnitude of the potential bounce up by Green Bay with guys like Jaire Alexander, Zadarius Smith and maybe David Bakhtiari. If all those guys are back and ready, they are golden.

The Matchup: What may decide the game is the fact the 49ers are the league's best red zone offense, and the Packers are one of the worst red zone defenses. Granted, I hyper focused on this in my preview of the Raiders @ Bengals, and while I ended up with the right pick the Bengals kicked three field goals in the red zone. But here that advantage, and the 49ers top-5 rush offense agianst Green Bay's bottom-5 rush defnese also looms large. Bakhtiari back will help the Packers give Rodgers a bit more time against what has become a pretty dynamic pass rush these past six games or so. The 49ers do struggle against top receivers, so Adams could have a huge game, just as he did by the end of their early season matchup. The Packers skill may still win out but the fact that they play low-possession games given their lack of turnovers probably helps the 49ers in many ways.

The Pick: In the end, the 49ers are a really bad matchup for Green Bay, a run-forward team with excellent red zone success is the recipe to both shorten the game and force the Packers offense to be every bit as hyper efficient as they can be. Well, I do think the Packers can be efficient enough, whether its their own red zone offense, or just not giving the 49ers short fields like the Cowboys did too many times. The return of Zadarius Smith should add ballast to a pass rush that can force a mistake or two out of Garoppolo. In the end, the 49ers are good enough to keep this close, but I think the Packers do eke it out, much like their earlier matchup. 49ers 21  Packers 26  (SF +6.0)

(N4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5)  @  (N2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

3:00 - NBC  |  TB -3.0

State of the Teams: As always, injuries take central focus, with both Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen being game time decisions. I'll split the difference and assume one plays - definitely seems like Jensen is more likely than Wirfs. The only other major injury question is if Leonard Fournette can return, but as the Rams are a top-5 rush defense by DVOA it may not much matter. The key to the game will be the Rams ability to generate pressure on Brady, somethign they did well in their win last year, but didn't do all that much of this year despite their win. The Rams seem mostly fully healthy at this point. The Rams are on a high after their blowout win but at this point have to be rueing their blown game in Week 17 which would've put this matchup in Los Angeles instead of Tampa. The Bucs have been great at home all year aside from the loss to the Saints, but we only have to go back a year with largely the same teams (aside from Staley being the DC) to see hte Rams winning in Tampa.

The Matchup: Both teams grade out well by all advanced metrics, but the Rams are rising fast, now ranking 3rd in weighted defensive DVOA, against a Bucs offense that ranks #2 in weighted DVOA but still doesn't really show the losses of Godwin and Brown (not to mention the OL guys who may or may not play). At full strength the Bucs have the matchup edges, be it a #2 ranked 3rd down and red zone offense, and an OL that can neutralize the Rams biggest advantage with their pass rush of Donald, Miller and Floyd (especially now that Miller has rounded into form). On the other side, it really comes down to turnovers. The Rams rank 13th in weighted offensive DVOA, but so much of that is their higher turnover count. They are #4 in yards and points per drive (the Bucs are #5 in both on offense) but turnovers drag their overall numbers down. If Stafford plays a clean game, like he did in their Week 3 matchup, they are very tough to stop, but aside from the Wild Card game, he's rarely been so faultless. If there is a hidden edge, its the Rams advantage on Special Teams, now ranking as the league's best unit, vs a Bucs unit that is just average.

The Pick: In the end, I'm going off the assumption one of the two lineman will play, and therefore I do think the Bucs will get just enough pass protection for Brady to score enough. I do think Stafford will throw a pick or there will be a turnover, and while the Rams red zone defense is good, teh Bucs red zone offense is elite, and that will win the day. Rams 23  Buccaneers 27  (TB -3.0)

(A3) Buffalo Bills (11-6)  @  (A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

6:35 - CBS  |  KC -2.5

State of the Teams

The Matchup

The Pick

2021 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Review

Player of the Week: Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

That's basically about as perfect a performance, from the running on the first drive - including a called QB draw in teh red zone - to his incredible throwing, with a few of his patented hydro-laser throws deep to Diggs and Sanders. That was a perfect game by teh Bills as a whole (more on that later), but Allen in particular was just incredible. His ability to improve year over year has just been amazing turning from a raw, but sneakily athletic marvel to a more polished, dynamic, and still sneakily athletic marvel.

Runner-Up: Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Mahomes wasn't nearly as good as Allen; he was downright iffy in the first quarter missing throws and completely missing TJ Watt on the interception. But my god that stretch from the drive after the Watt TD up through the dagger TD to Hill to go up 35-7 and that was peak Mahomes, throwing bullets off structure rolling to his right with a flick of his rest. There was some accuracy issues when guys weren't wide open but when he can throw over into holes most can't, it doesn't matter. That was 2018-19 Mahomes in a big way.

Goat of the Week: Cowboys Coaching Staff

I'm saying the whole staff because beyond the clock and game management issues that were squarely on McCarthy, the offensive game plan was mostly bizarre, down to that senseless QB draw, that was all on Kellen Moore. Even special teams coordinator John Fassel got in on the inaction where after his great fake punt (though it was so obvious seemingly), they pulled that stupid attempt to try to get the 49ers to take a timeout. But back to the clock management and game management, the pathetic punts, the field goal when down 16, not just running a regular play rather than the fake punt (which again, worked). So much of that was a disaster.

Runner-Up: Refs in Bengals, Raiders

Honestly, my issue wasn't even the missed whistle. It's a glaring mistake, and the NFL's ridiculous attempt to wash it away was hilarious. But in all honesty, I don't think it had a huge impact on that play, and the Raiders didn't even complain all that much at the time. The rest of that game, however, was also a mess with the officiating - from taking forever to make calls, to bad penalties over all. The Raiders committed a lot of penalties, to be sure, but some were just bad calls. The officiating the rest of the week, odd moments by the umpire in the Dallas game aside, was fine, so the terrible Jerome Boger game stood out even more as just not what we should be getting in playoff officiating.

Surprise of the Week: Bengals pass defense

The Bengals aren't a great defense. They still aren't. Their pass rush was good but not great in that game. What really stood out was how good their pass defense was throughout, from the guys we expect to be good to the fill-ins at safety. The Bengals secondary was continuously right there with Raider receivers - did a brilliant job on Hunter Renfrow, a decent one on Darren Waller, and just locked up that last goal to go. Their red zone offense has to get better, but the red zone defense was on point.

Runner-Up: Von Miller

Von Miller has had a pretty slow run in LA since coming over midseason but slowly getting better week by week. Well, he showed out huge in this game, and even more surprising was Von's great play against the run and chasing screens - both aspects crucial to beating the Cardinals offense, but helpful against the Bucs as well. Miller had a big reputation to fulfill, and has a postseason track record of being doninant. Well, he really gets his chance now against Brady.

Disappointment of the Week: Eagles run game

Admittedly I did not watch much of that game. There were two ways it would go - the Eagles run game would play well as it has for teh last half of the season, shorten the game and keep it close. Or the Eagles run game would not show up, putting a spotlight on all the other issues the Eagles have, and we would get a laugher. Without fail we got the second scenario and it was a disaster. It wasn't like they were unsuccessful when they ran, they just got way too smart and didn't run enough. I sometimes hate when people say that, but in this case where Hurts is by and large still a bit overmatches as a thrower, you need to lean into the thing you're actually really good at, and they just didn't.

Runner-Up: Pittsburgh Steelers, All Around

The Steelers weren't a good team; they are teh type of #7 seed we all feared when the playoffs were expanded. But man was that just a depressing performance, more so from a defense that had five great drives to start and then apparently just stopped trying. Despite being down just 14-7 in the two minute warning, they just stopped. The passing offense was as putrid as always. I still don't quite understand it, to be honest, this hyper-quick short passing game that just never got off the ground. Ben's arm isn't great, but its not nearly as poor as Peyton's was by that last season but they never even let Ben try (or Ben himself just gave up). In the end, they at least allowed us another great Mahomes performance.

Team Performance of the Week: Bills Everything

I already talked about the QB, so let's go with everyone else here. How about the OL that didn't allow a sack and road grating the Pats the entire game, or Devin Singletary for squiggling his way to 2-3 extra yards every time? How about Knox catching that first TD on what Allen admitted was a throwaway? How about the defense without Tre'davious White balling out in the secondary - of course capped with Micah Hyde's ridiculous interception? How about the front just stuffing the Patriots running game when it was a competitive game in the first half. The Bills were about perfect in every way.

Runner-Up: San Francisco 49ers DL

No Joey Bosa for a third of the game? No issue - the 49ers pressured Dak constantly, sacking him five times, with their backups abusing what was one of the better OLs. They dominated in the running game, not letting either Zeke or Pollard to get going. I do hope Bosa clears concussion protocols for next week but it has to be a good feeling for the 49ers to get that amount of pressure even without Bosa. Just a massive performance by that group in a game where their offense was less productive than expected.

Team Laydown of the Week: Patriots Everything

I try not to make the positives and negatives ones converses of each other, but in this case it fit. On paper this was the AFC's answer to 49ers @ Cowboys - two really godo teams competing. Well, one didn't show up, at all. Mac Jones was OK, but even before the pick he had to convert a 3rd adn 16 and 3rd and 10 - not sustainable at all. The defense which is the supposed strength got sliced apart even worse than they did four weeks ago - when the Bills got through that game without punting either. It is amazing how good that Patriots defense was against minnows, but how poor they played anytime they had to face a real QB and a real offense. And this was the nadir - the first time since probably Super Bowl LII where they just looked hopeless.

Runner-Up: Cardinals Offensive Creativity

I'm not a proponent of Kliff Kingsbury getting fired but it is shocking how poor and basic that offense seemed, how the Rams seemed to know every key, how unable Kyler was to do anything in script. Losing Hopkins is big, but they did nothing to get Edmunds in space, or do any of the things that let them roll against the Rams the first time around in Los Angeles when they rolled up 200+ yards both rushing and receiving. The Cardinals slow burn from 10-2 to 11-7 was disheartening as was the creativity that made so much of the first part of their season fun.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: Over-Expanded Playoffs is a Blight on the World

This became a really hot position for a lot of people to take as both 2-7 matchups were blowouts. Let's analyze this in a few ways. Yes, it is true both were blowouts and so far three of the four 2v7 games were not competitive - the other one, though, might have been the best playoff game period last season (Colts @ Bills). Also had the Raiders just settled for that damn tie (or the Colts not lost to Jacksonville) we probably get a better AFC game. Finally, while I would admit that we could probably do without that playoff game, what this really does is give a lot more teams something to care about late in the season: fighting for that 7th seed. Much like the play-in for the NBA had a decent amount of blowouts last year (and admittedly a few great games), it also invigorated teams and fanbases that otherwise would have checked out. For that, I am ok with it. The real hidden change is....

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: The rest advantage now for the #1 seed

From 2013 through 2019 (e.g. the last seven years pre-playoff expansion), 10 of the 14 Super Bowl participants were the #1 seeds. I don't expect that ratio to go down anytime soon, especially as we see with such clarity the even bigger edge the #1 seed has now. Both teh Titans and Packers got to rest, and more pointedly got even more time to get players back, from Derrick Henry and a more healthy AJ Brown on the Titans side, to Jaire Alexander, Zadarius Smith, David Bakhtiari, et. al., for the Packers. Also the #2 seeds that would've been resting now had to play, and in the Bucs case have some new injury concerns on what would have been a rest week (Wirfs, Jensen, both now questionable). People always wanted the #1 seed, but now you really want it, adn we'll see if the advantages gained by the Packers and Titans work in their favor - specifically Tennssee who with those guys back is very different than the seemingly questinable 'weakest #1 seed' team Tennessee had earned.

2021 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Picks

(A5) Las Vegas Raiders (10-7)  @  (A4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

Sat, 4:30 - NBC  |  CIN -6.0

State of the Teams: ENTER STUFF ABOUT INJURIES. For both teams this is something of a return, the Bengals first playoff game since 2015 (when they lost playing AJ McCarron) and for the Raiders since 2016 (when they lost playing Matt McGloin of all people). The Bengals are a far different team, overhauling basically their entire roster, and focusing it around Burrow, Chase, Higgins and a great offense that has blown up against bad teams but struggled at times against better ones. Their stats profile shows them being exceedingly average in about every way except for Burrow's per-play stats when he isn't getting sacked. For the Raiders, they're similar in a sense in that by most metrics they are average, but in a very unique way. Play to play the Raiders are rather good, but they are just brutal in the red zone, 26th on offense and 32nd on defense. That's why you get stats like Carr having a 3.7% TD%. They also get a lot of pressure, but rarely get sacks. 

The Matchup: So, about that Red Zone issue - the Raiders inability to score or prevent TDs is very noteworth, as even by advanced stats it really hurts their overall profile, checking in at 19th by DVOA on offense and 17th by defense. The Bengals aren't great at either, but much like everywhere else in their profile they are decidedly average, ranking 16th in red zone offense and 19th in defense - miles better than the Raiders but not significantly so. The Raiders real advantage here is against the Bengals porous OL that led to Burrow getting sacked 51 times. The Raiders get a lot of pressure, if not a lot of sacks, but against a line as bad as Cincinnati's they at least have good matchups to have a high-sack game. Like many Raider games, I can see them reducing the game length with their long drives (and inability to get opponents off the field - the Raiders are 4th worst in plays allowed per drive and forcing three and outs), which is a fine strategy as an underdog, but less so when you may too often trade FGs for allowing TDs.

The Pick: The Bengals are decidedly average, but have a higher ceiling when they can keep Burrown upright at all. The Raiders just showed how good their pass rush can be, but that was in a primetime home game, not an outdoor road one. I just trust the Bengals to get a few more TDs (Burrow's TD% is twice Carr's), the Raiders to get too many field goals, and the Bengals to win their first playoff game in nearly 30 years. Raiders 16  Bengals 27  (CIN -6.0)

(A6) New England Patriots (10-7)  @  (A3) Buffalo Bills (11-6)

Sat, 8:15 - CBS |  BUF -4.0

State of the Teams: Put record aside, and by the stats there probably isn't a team that profiles better than Buffalo. They outgained opponents by 1800 yards, outscored them by 196 (led the league in both). They were top-10 in third downs on both offense and defense, and top-10 in the red zone in both. They gave up an absurd 65.3 passer rating, and racked up 42 sacks (while ranking 3rd overall in pressure rate) and gave up just 27. The biggest problem though, is the Bills that dominated bad teams that led to that impressive resume, was not the same one that lost meekly to good teams. For the Patriots, oddly they have a similar profile - a defense that grades out nearly as well across the board though slightly worse, an offense that scores more than it should (though not as efficient as Buffalo) and a propensity to kill bad teams while struggle mightily against good ones. The only real injury of note is Tre'davious White, but the Bills haven't missed a beat defensively since he left. These are two teams that grade really well, playing each other - one team will shed its "can't beat good teams" label.

The Matchup: With any divisional rematch there are two games to compare, both with interesting takeaways. In the first, the Bills were run over by the Patriots who threw just five passes in the wind. In the second, the Bills dominated, becoming the first team ever to never punt against a Belichick defense. The conditions that dictated the first (ridiculous wind) would lead you to somewhat discount it (plus to remember the Bills had a goal-to-go for the win despite all of that), but it also projects to be about 5 degrees. The Patriots offense is the weakest unit in the game, especially since all metrics of run/pass ratios based on situations, or going for it on 4th down, etc., lead us to believe Belichick doesn't fully trust Mac Jones or the offense yet - and fairly so. The best unit is the Bills defense, which led the league in DVOA, in pass DVOA, in pts/drive allowed and yds/drive allowed, while ranking as the best 3rd down defense and a top-10 red zone unit.

The Pick: Having these two play twice somewhat recently, gives us a lot of material to go off of, and personally I think the second matchup played in cold but not extreme wind conditions is a better example. But in a way so is the first - which again the Bills came fairly close to stealing anyway. They're a better team, even if one that may struggle when faced with a 'real' team in a week. Patriots 13  Bills 23  (BUF -4.0)

(N7) Philadelphia Eagles (9-8)  @  (N2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

Sun, 1:00 - FOX  |  TB -8.5

State of the Teams: The Eagles surprised people with their run back to the playoffs, one that was strong enough they could afford to rest everyone in Week 17, which worked in getting them healthy. Of course, the Bucs enter relatively healthy, getting Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David back (of course, Godwin and Brown won't be there). Let's start on where the Eagles do fairly well - they don't turn over the ball much, they rank #3 in rushing DVOA, they hold onto the ball ranking in the top-10 in yds and plays per drive - a good sign when you want to shorten a game, and unlike the Raiders, are a top-10 red zone offense. Of course, their defense is 5th worst in the red zone, and as a whole the defense is just not a good unit - 25th in DVOA, and 26th in weighted indicating they aren't nay better now than early. For the Bucs, their biggest strength is they just run a bunch of plays. They actually have more unsuccessful drives than you would think, but they run so many they score at will at times. They've struggled against heavy man teams (which the Eagles are) but as long as they can protect Brady they've done well. On defense if they can get after the QB, they've had sucess. Otherwise their depth at corner has been an issue. It's hard to know much about the Bucs post-Godwin and post-Brown given their schedule to end the season. Against the Panthers, it seems like there's no issue at all. Against the similarly down-trodden Jets they needed some miracles to win. If the Bucs have any real glaring weakness, it is penalties - especially on defense which can extend drives and do more to shorting the game.

The Matchup: If the Eagles have any hope, they have to get their run offense working at top gear, and with 12 straight games with 100+ rushing yards that isn't hard to envision. Hurst hasn't made too many mistakes so you could also see them doing their best to shorten the game. The Bucs offense has some flaws given theinjuries, I just don't see the Eagles as the team that can overcome those, a defense that has given up a 70% completion rate and registered just 29 sacks. The Eagles defense has little hope of slowing down Tampa aside from just a scenario in which the loss of Godwin and Brown moves them down multiple tiers in efficiency. It is still a credit to the Eagles that they are here, but the Buccaneers got probably the best possible outcome of a wild card round opponent (ironically, one that would have been their opponent anyway even if the Rams held on in their game and forced the Bucs to the #3 team). 

The Pick: As mentioned, this seems the most predictable game, especially if the Buccaneers score first and jump out early. If there was every a game to pick to receive the ball if you win the toss, I would definitely do it here. I assume the Bucs would go up early and the Eagles can sustain on their run longer than most but that isn't a winning strategy. Eagles 23  Buccaneers 30  (PHI +8.5)

(N6) San Francisco 49ers (10-7)  @  (N3) Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

Sun, 4:40 - CBS  |  DAL -3.0

State of the Teams: What a match. Young! Montana! So many others! On paper this looks amazing and it really should be a great game. The 49ers are, you would imagine, starting Garoppolo, and with him the offense has a high ceiling and one standout area - the league's best red zone offense. The Cowboys are a top defense, leading the league in takeaways, ranking as the #2 third down defense, and generally being a greater week to week strength than their offense - the turnovers contributing to a league-leading points total. But their are just average in the red zone. Prescott is healthy, as are his receiving options aside from teh sidelined Michael Gallup, so if there is some fear the defense may not be as good as the numbers make it out to be, the offense should be ready to pick up the slack.

The Matchup: I focus on that red zone point because it is the biggest strength of the 49ers, turning red ozne trips into TDs a good 2/3rds of the time (best in the league). Conversely, Dallas is 18th in red zone defense. But hidden in those numbers is very often the 49ers drives sputter before they have a chance to get close - middle of the pick in plays per drive, three and outs, and turnovers. Dallas has the ability to force a couple turnovers that can turn that relative red zone disadvantage into a nonfactor. The Cowboys offense can also attach the relatively weaker component of the 49ers defense - their pass defense, which gives them a few matchup edges here. I can definitely see the 49ers stealing this if they're able to sustain drives and get 4-5 red zone opportunities, but I think the underrated Dallas defense doesn't give that up.

The Pick: As mentioned, I do think Dallas's ability to sustain drives, put the 49ers in tough situations whereby they can capitalize on a turnover or two, would overcome their relative disadvantage in the red zone. It also isn't like hte Cowbotys are bad on their end, ranking 6th in red zone offense (49ers are 15th in red zone defense). The Cowboys are just better and will be good if they continue on. 49ers 17  Cowboys 27  (DAL -3.0)

(A7) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1)  @  (A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

Sun, 8:15 - NBC  |  KC -12.5

State of the Teams: The Chiefs were the story of three teams - the one that started the season 3-4 and had everyone thinking the sky was falling - then the one that went 7-0 as their defense got healthy, made some personnel switches, and complemented an offense that found a way to still be great against cover-2, and then the team at the end that sleepwalked a bit. Hard to know which is the real team - the one that has the highest ceiling of any in the AFC (in theory), or the one that has shown some weaknesses. If there is a team to test the weakness angle, the Steelers don't really seem like it - one that is mediocre in nearly every way - in conventional stats, advanced stats, in the red zone, on 3rd down. The only strong suit seems to be red zone defense (5th), but truly everything is a struggle, especially if their opponent can block TJ Watt, Heyward and Co. The defense itself is near average for the first itme in a long time in DVOA (14th overall), and nothing points to them being anything other than the 7th seed in a world where two years ago that wouldn't be a playoff tema.

The Matchup: That said, the line seems high to me. The Chiefs biggest weakness on offense is in the red zone, where they rank just 13th. There is a world where they have a lot of long, successful drives (their 1st in yds an pts per drive) but end it with a field goal. The Steelers offense isn't really set-up to even be able to compete with that too well on their offensive side. On that side of the ball you have the 25th ranked offense by DVOA against the 24th ranked defense, but in weighted DVOA which over-weights later games, the Chiefs move up to 13th, while the Steelers are more or less the same. Their only real hope is to score TDs and score 20+ and given how feeble they look even in their late season wins it is hard to see a path there.

The Pick: I think the Steelers keep it a bit closer than the line, mainly because I hate picking double digit favorites in playoff games, and I do think the Chiefs lackluster red zone offense can hurt them. Also, the Chiefs overly rely on fumbles which often dry up at the worst times. Still they're more than good enough to win this, but I woukdn't be surprised if the score is less of a clear margin than we would like. Steelers 17  Chiefs 26  (PIT +12.5)

(N5) Arizona Cardinals (11-6)  @  (N4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5)

Mon, 8:15 - ESPN  |  LAR -4.0

State of the Teams: The biggest story of this game is likely the absence of DeAndre Hopkins and the unlikely (at this point) return of JJ Watt. That's a big issue. The Cardinals passing offense is way better with Hopkins playing, but then again in the matchup this season where the Cardinals won, Hopkins wasn't a huge factor. They ran all over the Rams in taht matchup and are healthy up front, enabling them in theory to do it again. The Rams are interesting, aside from random spates of turnovers nothing is wrong with their profile statistically. They are average at worst, and good at best at about everything. If we peak somewhere, the Rams third down defense isn't all that great, which could be interesting against what I imagine would be a run heavy approach for the Cardinals.

The Matchup: That last bit is why I think the Cardinals have a decent shot here. Their biggest advantage is running the ball against the Rams relatively up and down run defense. The Rams run defense hasn't been bad, but is very much either great (<70 yards) or porous (>150 yards), including giving up 216 yards on teh ground in the first matchup. The Cardinals defense has the ability to get some pressure on Stafford as they did in both matchups as well, and post Robert Woods, I actually think the Cardinals defense matches up fairly well, as they limited him to 5 catches for 64 yards in teh first matchup - notably though way less success in teh second one. I don't know man, I've reached this point without picking an upset, is all I'm saying....

The Pick: So, I'm picking the Cardinals here. I think they were closer in the second matchup to winning as well, and I just trust them to run well in this game, even with the threat of DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals have highs just as high as the Rams. On the whole, I'm just not a huge fan of the Rams, and generally think the coaching matchup here is a bit closer than people think, especially the McVay offense vs. Vance Joseph defense side. But at the end I'm picking this like 75% because I just need one upset... Cardinals 23  Rams 20  (ARZ +4.0)

If my picks hold - divisional round:

(A4) Bengals  @  (A1) Titans

(A3) Bills  @  (A2) Chiefs

(N5) Cardinals  @  (N1) Packers

(N3) Cowboys  @  (N2) Buccaneers

NFL 2021: Post-Regular Season Power Rankings & The Rest, Pt. 1

Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  3-14  (253-457)

Focus for 2022: Getting someone to resurrect Trevor Lawrence.

I'll talk about the most surprising result of the year in the Colts section, but the biggest positive for hte Jags in that game was Trevor Lawrence looking like a legitimate starting QB for the first time in months. His development this year has undoubtedly been stunted by Urban Meyer's idiocy. The only key for the next hire, whether the coach of the coach's picked OC, is how much can they get out of Trevor Lawrence. The team is bereft of talent, they just need someone who can coach up the QB to be as talented as he should be.

31.) New York Giants  =  4-13  (258-416)

Focus for 2022: Finally coming to terms with it not being a Judge & Jones world.

It seems written in stone by now that Joe Judge and Daniel Jones are both somehow coming back. I have no idea why Judge is at this point, given how embarrassing their season ended with his lashing out in press conference, either lying or admitting to tampering, and running those godforesaken QB draws. For Jones, maybe he can turn it around, players have done that in a Year 4 before. I just have zero faith that it will happen under Judge, so it really seems this is a wasted season.

30.) New York Jets  =  4-13  (310-504)

Focus for 2022: Letting Saleh get another year, but with a skeptical eye

It is a bit distressing that the Jets gave up more points than anyone else, and even more worryingly they finished 32nd in DVOA, so its not like behidn all the points are some strong numbers. Sometimes it takes more than one year for a defensive identity to get instilled, and in their good games they were very good. I trust Saleh to get them better, but I would not hesitate to cut bait after 2022 if teh defense doesn't markedly improve. The personnel needs to improve, and with two top-10 picks they have that route to go, but it seems like a bigger climb than just getting some talented rookies.

29.) Houston Texans  =  4-13  (280-452)

Focus for 2022: Turning the page

It seems clear Deshaun Watson will get traded. It stupidly is unknown id David Culley will get another season despite them playing hard while being more bereft of talent than the three teams I ranked below them. I don't think Culley is a great coach, I just see no need to fire him before seeing what they can do with a legitimate team around him.

28.) Detroit Lions  =  3-13-1  (325-467)

Focus for 2022: Assessing Goff long term

This is an interesting one, as the Lions played better than a three win team, though not so much better, coming in at an expected 5-12 record. Goff wasn't overly bad, but he definitely has a ceiling that might work for 2022 but they need to see if there is any runway on Goff into 2023. Connected to that is if they can get some consistency - the Lions played hard but it all seemed a bit smoke and mirrors and rah-rah around Campbell. That might be largely due to Campbell's bravado, but I would like to see them turn Swift into an even better playmaker, and Amun-Ra into a more consistent weapon.

27.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-12  (304-404)

Focus for 2022: Don't wait to cut bait

I don't think any team is in a cycle of more mediocrity right now than the Panthers (I separate them with like the Giants who are stuck in a cycle of bad-ness). They have no clear future at QB other than fairly middling options. I don't buy Matt Rhule as a coach. The defense is nice and has developed some good players but that is as we all know inconsistent year to year. I just don't know where they go without hitting a bit of a reset, which you would think David Tepper wouldn't fear being hasty there.

26.) Chicago Bears  =  6-11  (311-407)

Focus for 2022: Develop Justin Fields

Sometimes it is indeed this obvious. They have a QB they recently drafted in the Top-5. Well? Might be good to develop that guy more than the grating Matt Nagy was able to. They've already cleaned house with both Nagy and Pace out. I guess that gives some chance that the new GM/Coach combo would be willing to move away from Fields, but I would want them to at least take 2022 to make that decision. Fields hasn't shown much in two years, but again hard to know how much of that is on him or Nagy.

25.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-10  (313-459)

Focus for 2022: Toe the line between Ryan and the future

Matt Ryan is seemingly coming back for 2022 as a Falcon. He's not terrible, he's certainly better than say Ben Roethlisberger this year, but he's clearly limited, he can't take over games, he needs his skill players to elevate him - which aside from Kyle Pitts is not such a roster that is easily capable of this. The Falcons don't seem to be wanting to make a tough decision here to cut the cord and move on, which is admirable in a sense but probably just leaves them spinning their wheels a bit. But at the very least they need to ensure they create the room for 2023 to be with someone else at QB.

24.) Washington Football Team  =  7-10  (335-434)

Focus for 2022: Picking a good name

Seriously, don't blow this opportunity. I'm sure they will because messing up is just what Dan Snyder does...

23.) Seattle Seahawks  =  7-10  (395-366)

Focus for 2022: Just keep things going

This is a ranking based on 2021 performance, not 2022 outlook - as focusing on the latter would have moved them up. The Seahawks end up as massive pythagoreon outliers, but that's mostly driven by a few big blowout wins. This team has holes, like a defense that disappeared every other week, but still end up a good team unjustly put in the league's best division. The Seahawks will have a lot of work to do to stay competitive in said division, but they shouldn't assume the world is ending because they had a bad year. Just have to go back three years to the Packers in a very similar spot just holding course with their QB (admittedly, changing coach) and it works out.

22.) Miami Dolphins  =  9-8  (341-373)

Focus for 2022: Who knows, fuck them

I can't even start to think of their 2022 without the glaring issue of them firing Brian Flores, who of course has some faults and blind spots but seems to be a very good coach in keeping a middling team hyper competitive, and not firing the guy who drafted Tua and has a whole roster of other mistakes in his past. Look, maybe something will come out to better explain why Flores had to go, but until then we're left with feeling that he was done wrong. Never a good sign when you fire someone and they immediately become one of the hotter names on the coaching market.

21.) Cleveland Browns  =  8-9  (349-371)

Focus for 2022: Get Mayfield healthy and right

Maybe Mayfield is just too flawed to make it work, but in his two healthy seasons they went an impressive 7-8-1 (after going 0-16 the year before) and 11-5. Mayfield has a great arm but doesn't use it well, partially due to injuries sustained this year. I don't think the team is broken, nor he, just about yet. Maybe a year later we'll realize that he's just permanently not right - like Carson Wentz at this point - but I would give him the chance to show otherwise.

20.) Minnesota Vikings  =  8-9  (425-426)

Focus for 2022: Offseason focus, but weigh hitting re-set?

The Vikings have fired Zimmer and Spielman, the latter coming as something of a surprise. They've had this core run its course, aside from Justin Jefferson of course. They have a chance to maybe hit reset - even considering trading Jefferson (though I admit that is way more an NBA like move...). And why not? Clearly they've hit their ceiling in 2017 and 2019. Maybe someone new comes in but I do think there is a ceiling to a Kirk Cousins offense. They can regroup and time things for when Rodgers inevitably leaves or retires - something like the Bills did with Sean McDermott to line up to when Brady left. It is a risk, but running in place seems to have run its course.

19.) Denver Broncos  =  7-10  (335-322)

Focus for 2022: Not losing what you had

I get the decision to fire Fangio. The team seemed a bit limited and you can argue needed a new voice. It isn't the worst firing - not even close given what Miami did. That said, Fangio did create a team whose defense was strong year after year (ironically this years team was one of the weaker defenses). Like many teams who try to lean into fixing up the offense, there's always a risk what they gained on defense then disappears and I can definitely see that here.

18.) New Orleans Saints  =  9-8  (364-335)

Focus for 2022: Figure out how to machinate your way to a great QB

The Saints have a great team aside from their hole at QB. They also have negative millions of cap space (even with it not being as bad as in years past). I don't know what hoops they have to go through to get into a potential Aaron Rodgers derby, but by god they need to do something. And maybe that is just bringing Jameis back - I am still certain had Jameis not gotten hurt they're a clear playoff team. There's probably not too long a window here where the defense will remain great.

17.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-9  (387-392)

Focus for 2022: Fix the practice facility, or something...

The Ravens were 8-3 before a combination of covid and injuries, stacking up on many preseason injuries, just torpedoed their season. They still nearly pulled off a miracle (had they beaten Pittsburgh, they would be in the playoffs right now as weird as that sounds). Clips circulated of their dust bowl practice field. I can't say for sure that equates directly to their spate of injuries, but whatever the cause is, something needs to be done. Healthy and they'll go back to being a top contender, but man do they have to get some semblance of health.

16.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  9-8  (474-459)

Focus for 2022: Get a real RT and a second pass rusher

At some point, probably pre-FA, I'll do a real 'needs' type look at the NFL, but finally I'll do a specific focus here. The Chargers have a top young QB, a stud LT, a top pass rusher, but little else. Then again that's a really good set of top players. What they need is just to improve their biggest weaknesses that cost them mightily in that amazing game. They need a RT, as it was horrifying how badly abused they were by Maxx Crosby. They need a second pass rusher so in games where Bosa can get handled well enough with double teams they can maintain some semblance of a pass rush. Fix those two issues and I truly think they can have a great team.

15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-8  (451-365)

Focus for 2022: Move on from Wentz

Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat it. That was the worst Colts game in my time following the team. Seriously. I don't know what comes close aside from maybe their complete no-show in the 2014 AFC Championship Game. This isn't only on Wentz, but I'm sorry at this point he isn't the answer. Yes, they gave up a 1st round pick, but don't steer into that too much. He isn't the guy. Reich needs to know this. The rest of the team is good with a few adds to make (another pass rusher is desperately needed). I don't know who the answer is on QB - but again like the Saints they need to be in on any Rodgers or Russell Wilson rumors. They need to do something to put the taste of that loss far, far, far in the rear view mirror.

Predicting the Awards:

MVP:

1.) Aaron Rodgers, QB-GB

2.) Joe Burrow, QB-CIN

3.) Tom Brady, QB-TB

4.) Cooper Kupp, WR-LAR

5.) Derek Carr, QB-LV

OPOTY

1.) Cooper Kupp, WR-LAR

2.) Jonathan Taylor, RB-IND
3.) Tom Brady, QB-TB

DPOTY

1.) TJ Watt, LB-PIT

2.) Aaron Donald, DT-LAR

3.) Darius Leonard, LB-IND

COTY

1.) Mike Vrabel, TEN

2.) Matt LaFleur, GB

3.) Zak Taylor, CIN

Le Affair Novak, Pt. 2

Novak Djokovic is one of the greatest tennis players of all time, and has a resume that is projecting to easily be the greatest. He is also one of the weirdest players and someone who has never gotten the fan love that someone with his resume should. He has always seemed a bit annoyed and saddened by this, but once again Novak has done himself no good, and his whirwind 24 hours culminating with his expulsion from the 2022 Australian Open is the biggest blunder yet.

Just to recap:

- Novak Djokovic has been skeptical of the seriousness of Covid, and its associated restrictions (see him hosting the Adria Tour last year), and that then grew into skepticism of the vaccine and openly saying he would not want a vaccine mandate

- Australia has a vaccine mandate

- Djokovic applies for a medical exemption, which given his stature he can easily get some quack doctor to write him up some made up nonsense qualifying him for an exception

- The Australian Open grants him said exception in a process using impartial panels seemingly judging each exemption blind on its merits

To stop here, there are either one of three things:

(1) It was not a blind judging and Australia just figured they need Djokovic for this tournament

(2) Djokovic has a legitimate medical condition that requires and exception and it all worked as it should

(3) Djokovic faked having a medical condition and the blind judging for that reason didn't catch it

Personally, given Djokovic's loud hesitancy to mandates which already garnered him backlash and the fact he could have avoided a lot of that if he just said what his issue was (e.g. #2 above), it clearly seems that #3 is the most likely reason why Djokovic was given an exemption.

Of course, from reports four other players were granted exceptions - we don't know who they are because.... and we return to the affair

- Djokovic proudly promotes on Instagram that he has been granted the exception so he is all systems go for the Australian Open

- People in Australia (and really globally) throw a giant fit because Australia has put in some of the most draconian lockdowns and vaccine mandates anywhere; specifically Melbourne (I have family there and they couldn't visit even each other - sons visiting parents - because you were not allowed more than 5km from your house for months on end)

- Australia came under serious pressure because of what the backlash was

- Djokovic arrives in Australia, where the world realizes that the governing body that granted him an exception to play in the tournament is not the same one that allows him into the country

- Through a combination of apparently Djokovic applying for the wrong type of visa, and the backlash, and the burden of proof of the reason of the exception being a bit higher ofr border security, he is seemingly not allowed in the country

Now, Djokovic is appealing and maybe this ends with him being allowed in (some reports already have it that the Ambassador to Serbia of Australia has gotten involved), at best Djokovic has garnered himself extreme negative notoriety and at worst has thrown away his best chance to immediately get slam #21.

This is a mess, mostly because of Djokovic's anti-science beliefs. I'm sure there are dozens of men's players taking part in the Australian Open that would rather have not gotten vaccinated but they did. And not only did Djokovic not, but he flaunted it. I truly believe if he doesn't go on Instagram proudly displaying how he gamed the system - teh same system that has made Australians live in home confinement - this doesn't happen.

The backlash was swift; apparently you can't overstate the vitriol and noise in Australia, and the PM is already a bit unpopular with an election coming up later in year. This is an easy political win, and just as it is easy to think a supposedly neat system could have political influence (the one that granted him the exception to get him to play), it is equally easy to think Australia backtracked for the same reason.

This whole thing is a mess, and a sad one. Sad for tennis, sad for Australia, sad for Djokovic, but every actor brought this on themselves here. No one wins, but at least there is fairness. Whether it was the Open conspiring to let their money man play, or Djokovic's wealth getting him access to bogus docs, it felt very wrong when he was allowed to play when players from Russia who got vaccinated with the Sputnik vaccine are not allowed to play as that vaccine isn't recognized in Australia.

This is the world we live in, and this is Djokovic's cost for his beliefs. I don't for a second think his beliefs aren't genuine (they're wrong, but not fake), but this is the life he wants to lead and live. He dug his grave this time, and the political machine of Australia helped bury him for good.

NFL 2021: Week 18 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the AFC Teams

Tier I - The "Better Luck Next Year" Trio

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-14  (227-446)

15.) Houston Texans  =  4-12  (225-404)

14.) New York Jets  =  4-12  (300-477)

All three are bad, but honestly I should put the Jaguars on a level by themselves. The Jags, for the millionth time since they fired Jack Del Rio eleven years ago, are a disaster. Admittedly they're playing under a very lame duck interim, but what is unnerving is how bad Trevor Lawrence has looked despite having reasonable weapons. For the Texans and Jets, they've both shown some fight in recent weeks - the Jets really should have won on Sunday, but this high variance approach coupling blowouts with close wins/losses is the sign of a team that has a coaching staff that can motivate week to week but needs more stability to function well. I'm glad, honestly, that David Culley seems to be on track to get another season. For the Jets, I'll do more next week writing up each of the teams that will miss the playoffs, but Saleh's defense underperformance is definitely worrying.

Tier II - The "Uncomfortable QB Conversations" Quadro

13.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-8  (308-349)

12.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-9  (328-355)

11.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  8-7-1  (327-385)

10.) Denver Broncos  =  7-9  (311-294)

Tier III - The "Moral Victories" Uno

9.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  9-7  (339-407)

The Raiders have a very real shot at the playoffs, and should be applauded for making do after losing both Jon Gruden and then Henry Ruggs for terrible and tragic reasons. They started both 2019 and 2020 6-3 before ending those seasons 1-6 and 2-5. This year again they started 6-3, and at worst will finish 3-5 but alive for the playoffs. Their underlying numbers are not playoff worthy, but Derek Carr has been amazing keeping them afloat and to be honest should be a down-ballot MVP candidate if the NFL MVP was ranked voting like baseball's is. The defense still needs major improvement and I do worry if Carr will ever get a level further up, but this team had every right to follow its 2019 and 2020 vintages into the ground, but didn't.

Tier IV - The "Truly, Better Luck Next Year" Uno

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-8  (374-376)

The Ravens if Lamar gets back is probably a frightening playoff prospect. It won't happen though because of failed two-point conversions against Pittsburgh and Green Bay, and just not having enough to combat so many injuries. On its face, the Ravens went from 8-3 and the #1 seed to 8-8 and needing miracles to make the playoffs, but that should not be held against Harbaugh who has navigated more injuries than any other team, including to his star QB, and keep them at least sea level. Assuming they get average injury luck next year, they have a real nice foundation to be back after a sadly wasted year.

Tier V - The "Well, Herbert is great" Uno

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  9-7  (442-424)

I'm continuously surprised how many points the Chargers have given up. Their defense is really just Joey Bosa and a bunch of randoms. They haven't been as injured as in recent years (Bosa's recent games missed as a notable exception). Then again, their offense is right up there with any in the AFC,w it Herbert playing a starring role. He needs to get unshackled even further in the offense they run, but with his arm talent you have to expect it will happen sooner or later.

Tier VI - The "High Ceiling, but Low Floor" Duo

6.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-7  (440-339)

5.) New England Patriots  =  10-6  (438-270)

To me there's some similarities with these teams aside from the variance element being the QB for the Colts and the run defense for the Patriots. Both teams have solid pass defenses, good OLs and run games that will show up every week (obviously the Colts better running and Patriots better at pass defense). They both are good enough to knock off top teams (though quietly the Patriots don't have a great win on their ledger aside from beating a badly injured Tennessee team), but have low enough floors to look out of place in big games. The Colts inability to generate anything like a consistent passing offense despite their great OL has been shocking, and the Patriots lack of trust in Jones against better teams probably become issues they can't overcome.

Tier VII - The "#1 Seed Without a Bullet" Uno

4.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-5  (391-329)

Assuming they beat a bad Texans team (honestly, not guaranteed...) the Titans will be the #1 seed for the AFC. They'll be the first #1 seed with five losses since the 2002 Raiders (who of course made the Super Bowl), and by many metrics the worst #1 seed in many years. That said, they also have one of the more impressive resume of wins, blowing out KC and the Rams, beating Buffalo, sweeping the Colts. The Titans should be relatively healthy in the playoffs and have shown an ability to beat all the teams most likely to head to them in a potential AFC Championship Game. Somehow this team seems to have a fairly clear, believable path to a Super Bowl.

Tier VIII - The "Start of Something Special?" Uno

3.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-6  (444-355)

People will point to the Bengals easy schedule, and lack of big wins - of course, until this last week. The naysayers will point to Joe Burrow's performance against good teams and his sack numbers (that OL is terrible). But at the end of the day, their offense is loaded. They are almost a carbon copy in many ways, aside from the bad OL, of the 2005 Bengals with Palmer, Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Rudi Johnson - except younger across the board. Joe Burrow is a superstar, and while he does need to get better handling the pocket at least the Bengals have a very clear hole that needs addressing up front. The defense is better than it shoudl be giving the names, with Trey Hendrickson one of the quieter great FA pickups. The Bengals are likely not Super Bowl bound, but they absolutely have that ceiling.

Tier IX - The "AFC Favorites?" Duo

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  10-6  (456-279)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-5  (452-340)

If this was a normal 16-game season, the Bills having a point differential of 456-279 would be consistent with one of the best, balanced teams in any given season. That is a pythagoreon record of 12-4 and if you give the Bills the sneak against Tennessee, and either of their losses with goal-to-go for leads against the Patriots or Bucs, and viola! They are really good, and unlucky. The Chiefs are really good, but not unlucky. They were legitimately a flat .500 team through eight weeks and legitimately one of the best in the league thereafter. Their pass defense faltering against Cincinnati is hopefully a wake-up call that they can't just relentlessly blitz that much and expect it to work every week.

Ranking the NFC Teams

Tier I - The "Better Luck Next Year" Duo

16.) New York Giants  =  4-12  (251-394)

15.) Detroit Lions  =  2-13-1  (288-437)

I've defended the Giants a lot as probably through 12 games they were a team that had serious limitations (especially offensively) but fought. These last two weeks have been just absolute nightmares. They've clearly quit on Joe Judge, whether Judge wants to admit it or not (or more accurately, actively lie to hide it). Joe Judge is not the answer, even if he and Patrick Graham can scheme up a reasonable defense every other week. Daniel Jones probably gets one more year to show something. For the Lions, they've not quit but they just have too much of a handicap to be successful. They do play hard for Dan Campbell, these past two weeks excluded, and while they will need to decide if Goff is a longer term answer, the future is bright. Granted the future will always be brighter when you end a season with 2-3 wins.

Tier II - The "Sad Underbelly of the NFC" Quadro

14.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-9  (293-429)

13.) Chicago Bears  =  6-10  (294-376)
12.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-11  (287-363)

11.) Washington Football Team  =  6-10  (313-427)

The Falcons are the worst seven win team in a long time, and their crumbling after a surprisingly tough first half against the Bills was not surprising in the least. Kyle Pitts had a nice season, and they have some draft capital coming up, but with an aging Matt Ryan and seemingly no plan on defense this team does not have a bright future. The Bears will need Fields to develop, and right now it's more of a waiting game on who will replace Matt Nagy to try to get him there. For the Panthers and WFT, they are just in no mans land, needing to settle somewhere at QB while trying to not lose what else makes them decent. I do fear their ceilings in their current set-ups is 9-8.

Tier III - The "Uncomfortable Decisions" Duo

10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  6-10  (357-336)
9.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-9  (394-409)

Both teams are not bad - the Seahawks will likely end the year with a positive point differential despite 6-7 wins, and the Vikings were above zero in that until the blowout to Green Bay. But hiding behind some successes are major decisions, for both coach and QB on both. There is been rumblings on a potential Russell Wilson trade which could re-set the Seahawks but then the question pivots to are John Schneider and Pete Carroll the right people to usher in that rebuild without Wilson. For the Vikings, they can potentially trade Cousins as well but the questions then become who replaces him and what to do with Mike Zimmer, whose defenses have seemed to get worse and worse each year.

Tier IV - The "Seriously, Better Luck Next Year" Uno

8.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-8  (334-315)

Like their AFC counterpart in the Ravens, the Saints went from 5-2 and leading the NFC South to 8-8, but if anything the fact they're still technically alive (and in reality way more 'alive' than the Ravens are) says a lot both about Sean Payton and moreso their defense. Had Jameis Winston not torn his ACL, this is clearly a playoff team with a scary enough defense to have made some noise before Jameis inevitably ruins things. Instead, they are at best definite wild card fodder because of just how limited Taysom Hill is. 

Tier V - The "Likely Wild Card Fodder" Duo

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-7  (418-334)

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-7  (400-341)

The Eagles are in and they deserve a lot of credit for improving that offense as the year went on with Hurts. Just a great job scheming to what he does well and turning lesser known offensive players loose. The 49ers have a very interesting proposition coming up, with a win giving them a wild card spot (will help if the Rams rest starters now that the #1 seed is no longer up for grabs), but a loss gives the Saints a chance. It seems like Garoppolo is not ready to go, and while Lance had a decent second half I do worry if his lower floor is a bit of a risk in a must-win game. I do hope they get in because whether its Lance or Garoppolo, the 49ers are a tougher out than the Saints (unless its against Tampa I guess).

Tier VI - The "High Ceiling, but Low Floor" Duo

5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  11-5  (419-328)
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  12-4  (470-336)

These two are better than the Colts and Patriots who I gave this same phrasing to on the AFC side. The Cardinals finally showed what made them great over their 10-2 start in that game, even if they were making the playoffs either way. Murray finally found some rhythm with AJ Green, and maybe more importantly the defense finally got its pass rush back. For the Bucs, the win was meaningless aside from seeding implications, but seeing Brady do work without Godwin and Brown was improtant as that is what it will be. Their OL dropping off of late is worrying, but given their strong run defense they're actually a good matchup agaisnt either of their likely wild card opponents in the Eagles and 49ers. Their hit or miss pass rush and corner depth issues will likely rear its head in later rounds.

Tier VII - The "Strong Contenders with Questions" Duo

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  11-5  (479-332)
2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  12-4  (436-345)

It's weird writing about these two after the Cowboys loss and the Rams near loss to a backup in Huntley. Both are worrying, though the Cowboys loss was a bit more flukey and to a better team. They're now the 4 seed which puts a lot of pressure on a team to go on the road twice to get to the Super Bowl. Losing Gallup also hurts, and in the end we do have to wonder on McCarthy being good enough in close games to get them there. For the Rams, it's about Stafford. He's better than Goff, but after sixteen weeks, it is clear that even with Stafford they aren't as good as the 2017-18 Rams were. If the run game gets stopped as it did that week, there are risks with Stafford throwing a pick or two. The defense is good enough to keep them in games, but as we saw when they went to Green Bay earlier, it is a slippery slope at times with the Rams.

Tier VIII - The "#1 Seed, With Maybe a Bullet" Uno

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3  (420-334)

The Packers point differential doesn't point to a 13-3 team (or even a 13-4 team at worst), and while some of that has to do with their 38-3 loss in Week 1, even if you adjust for that which puts their point differential at 417-296, that isn't 13-2 good either. They've won a lot of close games. Rodgers has been excellent, but the run game a bit too up and down. The defense stands to get better as they finally get players back. There's no real weakness with this team, but other than Rodgers being Rodgers, there's no appreciable super strength even compared to last year's team. I do hope the returns of Smith and Alexander turbo-charge what has already been a good defense. Overall they are a worthy #1 seed, but given how a better version of the Packers was taken down last year, it has to give you some pause.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

Byes: (1) Titans (12-5)

Wild Card Matchups:

(7) Chargers (10-7)  @  (2) Chiefs (12-5)

(6) Colts (10-7)  @  (3) Bengals (11-6)

(5) Patriots (11-6)  @  Bills (11-6)

NFC

Byes: (1) Green Bay (14-3)

Wild Card Matchups:

(7) Eagles (9-8)  @  (2) Rams (13-4)

(6) 49ers (9-8) @  (3) Buccaneers (13-4)

(5) Cardinals (11-6)  @  Cowboys (12-5)

Award Picks

MVP

1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

2.) Tom Brady (QB, TB)

3.) Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

4.) Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)

5.) Kyler Murray (QB, ARZ)

I think it's pretty apparent Rodgers has sewn this up at this point, as much like he did in 2011 he just has been more efficient than a more voluminous performer in Brady (it was Brees in 2011). Rodgers would get his 4th MVP, putting him one behind Peyton (and one ahead of Brady and Favre - crazy to think Packers QBs would have won 7 MVPs over a 27 year period). Burrow probably doesn't have enough counting stats and the team has a few too many losses. For Taylor, the Colts going at best 10-7 probably hurts him, even though he has been an insanely efficient RB for a team with a middling passing game, and if not for super performance from Rodgers he could have stolen this.

OPOTY

1.) Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)

2.) Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

3.) Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Taylor may lose this to Kupp who is still on track for a near historic season. But he needs that 17th game to make history. Taylor has lapped the field at RB in a way no one has since Henry last couple years back (or Peterson in 2012). What Taylor has done has been phenomenal, keeping the Colts as a top-10 offense despite Wentz's skittishness. Kupp has still had an insane year, and if he crosses the 2,000 yard mark he probably nabs it. Rodgers is your obligatory best QB who didn't set any records.

DPOTY

1.) TJ Watt (LB, PIT)

2.) Myles Garrett (DE, CLE)

3.) Darius Leonard (LB, IND)

Watt's sack numbers and close finish last year probably gives him this for both the great performance and being seen as someone who is 'due'. Garrett has slowed down a bit but still had an insane season on the whole. For Leonard, I am a bit surprised why he's gotten such little attention. No MLB has a bigger impact and makes more splash plays than Leonard, who is having a Keuchly like season. I guess for a MLB to win it you need to be on one of the better defenses in the league (Keuchly in 2013, Urlacher in 2005, Brooks in 2002), but he still should be getting more shout.

OROTY

1.) Jamarr Chase (WR, CIN)

2.) Mac Jones (QB, NE)

3.) Creed Humphrey (G, KC)

Not even going to do DROTY as that has been Micah Parsons's since like week 3. Anyway, Chase has probably nabbed this from Jones after putting up historic numbers (even through sixteen games, slightly beating out Justin Jefferson's record from last year) for a rookie, while Jones has been merely good and had some notable bad games against the Colts and Bills. Jones has been fine for a rookie but no better than Herbert last year, or Dak in 2016. For Humphrey, unless its a Walter Jones-esque LT, I can't imagine a lineman ever winning this award, but what he's done in KC has been amazing.

COTY

1.) Mike Vrabel (TEN)

2.) Frank Reich (IND)

3.) Matt Lafleur (GB)

It's amazing that we're at a point where Mike Vrabel is the best Belichick disciple by orders of magnitude by this point. He kept that team competitive, fighting and alive when they went through injury hell, played up against good competition repeatedly, and has them as the #1 seed. No one had that team as a #1 seed, especially when Henry and every WR went down. For Reich, he's stabilized a team that started 2-5 and has them gelling despite injuries, Wentz's tough play and won games with practice squaders when they went through covid hell. Finally Lafleur because god damn going 13-3 (or 13-3, 13-3, 13-4/14-3) in three straight seasons is just insane.