NFL 2021: Week 8 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) New York Jets  =  1-6  (80-175)

31.) Houston Texans  =  1-6  (97-203)

30.) Miami Dolphins  =  1-6  (127-207)
29.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-5  (116-172)

28.) Detroit Lions  =  0-7  (128-200)

27.) New York Giants  =  2-5  (139-180)
26.) Chicago Bears  =  3-4  (101-162)
25.) Denver Broncos  =  3-4  (140-127)
24.) Washington Football Team  =  2-5  (146-210)

23.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  2-5  (159-185)
22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  3-3  (135-176)

21.) Seattle Seahawks  =  2-5  (150-162)

20.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-4  (146-146)
19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  3-3  (117-132)

18.) San Francisco 49ers  =  2-4  (135-149)

17.) New England Patriots  =  3-4  (179-140)

16.) New Orleans Saints  =  4-2  (140-101)

15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  3-4  (169-149)

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  4-3  (175-163)
13.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  3-4  (188-203)
12.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-3  (147-137)

11.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  5-2  (180-166)

10.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-2  (148-150)

9.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  5-2  (189-128)
8.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-2  (193-164)

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  5-2  (187-164)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  6-1  (207-146)

5.) Green Bay Packers  =  6-1  (168-146)

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  6-1  (233-147)

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  5-1  (205-146)

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-2  (203-98)

1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  7-0  (225-114)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:

Byes: Las Vegas Raiders (5-2), Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-5)  (4:05 - CBS)

14.) San Francisco 49ers (2-4)  @  Chicago Bears (3-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) New York Giants (2-5)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)  (MNF - ESPN)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-5)  @  Detroit Lions (0-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Washington Football Team (2-5)  @  Denver Broncos (3-4)  (4:25 - FOX)

10.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)  @  New York Jets (1-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Los Angeles Rams (6-1)  @  Houston Texans (1-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Miami Dolphins (1-6)  @  Buffalo Bills (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Carolina Panthers (3-4)  @  Atlanta Falcons (3-3)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (4-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1)  @  New Orleans Saints (4-2)  (4:25 - FOX)

4.) New England Patriots (3-4)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)  (4:05 - CBS)

3.) Dallas Cowboys (6-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (3-3)  (SNF - NBC) 

2.) Tennessee Titans (5-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (3-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Green Bay Packers (6-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (7-0)  (TNF - FOX)

NFL 2021: Week 7 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Tank for..... who, exactly?" Duo

32.) Houston Texans  =  1-5  (92-172)

31.) Detroit Lions  =  0-6  (109-172)

Around this time of season I start looking at what the truly worst teams may be in line for in the draft. Well, both of these teams are very well in track for a top pick, but maybe in the worst QB draft in a while seemingly. The Texans I guess do have a QB - but it is shocking how little we hear of Deshaun Watson these days... For the Lions, we hear to much of Jared Goff at the moment, he of the guy living up to everyone's worst opinions of him. What is nice at least is both of these teams have first year head coaches who should get a second season and I actually think have done a reasonable job.

Tier II - The "Ships passing in the night!" Trio

30.) New York Jets  =  1-4  (67-121)

29.) Miami Dolphins  =  1-5  (99-177)

28.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-5  (116-172)

The Dolphins selected Tua #5 overall in 2020. Even after a really poor rookie season at times, the Dolphins went 10-6. They threw away the playoffs but still seemed a team on the rise. The Jets picked Zack Wilson #2 this year, with Trevor Lawrence going #1. The Dolphins are shockingly in as bad shape as the Jets and Jaguars despite having a few years head start. I truly wonder what exactly Brian Flores thinks he's building there. For the Jaguars, they are building around having their Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer, but need to get rid of hte useless head coach like those guys were saddled with originally. For the Jets, I still like Wilson, and like Salah, but yes the Jets of it all is still a significant barrier to overcome. Salah really needs an offensive whiz to help out for a bit.

Tier III - The "Dregs of the NFC" Quadro

27.) New York Giants  =  1-5  (114-177)

26.) Atlanta Falcons  =  2-3  (105-148)
25.) Washington Football Team  =  2-4  (136-186)
24.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  2-4  (137-152)

Putting aside the Lions, the AFC has a lot of the worst teams. The NFC just has a bunch of these fairly middling ones that have a proclivity to getting blown out every now and then. The Giants regression these last two weeks has been disappointing to watch. Jones had been a bright spot until that disaster against the Rams. The Falcons were off but still look like the slightly worse NFC version of the Steelers, putting off the inevitable full tear down. For Washington and Philadelphia, neither is a bad team and both have had tough schedules, but neither does anything too well. Both have fairly easy schedules so a late-season #7 charge could be viable but they'll need more consistency from the surprisingly bad WFT defense, and unsurprisingly highly variable Eagles offense.

Tier IV - The "Good, Bad teams" Quadro

23.) Chicago Bears  =  3-3  (98-124)
22.) New England Patriots  =  2-4  (125-127)

21.) Seattle Seahawks  =  2-4  (140-149)

20.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  3-3  (117-132)

These four have mastered the ability to not get blown out, have enough high-level talent (be it players or coaching) to play good teams tough half the time, and generally mill about towards a 7-10 or 8-9 record. The Bears defense is still legitimately well coached and good but that offense is not sustainable for Fields both running for his life and throwing so poorly on the move so far. The Patriots are bizarrely playing up or down to the level of the competition. The Seahawks are in for a really tough stretch ahead, especially if their defense continues a league worst level of play. The Steelers are the same, with their offense continuing to be a mess. After watching Manning in 2015, I really shouldn't be so surprised at watching Roethlisberger this year. The parallels go even further back, with Roethlisberger's Steelers being among the league's best through ~10-12 games the year prior, just like Manning's Broncos were great through a similar stretch in 2014 before it all came crashing down.

Tier V - The "September was so long ago...." Trio

19.) Denver Broncos  =  3-3  (126-110)

18.) San Francisco 49ers  =  2-3  (117-119)

17.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-3  (145-121)

The Broncos started 3-0, admittedly against a series of teams that were at the time 0-3. The 49ers started 2-0, with wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. The Panthers beat two of the league's worst teams in their start. I don't think either team is as bad as they've shown recently. We still have two of them with a positive point differential, with the 49ers right behind them at '-2'. For the Broncos, the real issue is Bridgewater just does have a ceiling in that offense. Similar with Darnold, but in a different way in his too risky tendencies are coming out in full force the last few weeks. For the 49ers, it is still hard to know. I'll credit Shanahan from buying himself more time even if they finish 7-10 as he tries to build up Trey Lance - that said the defense is only losing players and getting slightly worse at this point.

Tier VI - The "Bad, Good teams" Duo

16.) Minnesota Vikings  =  3-3  (147-137)
15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  2-4  (139-131)

The NFC Wild Card race is a gauntlet. The Colts path to winning the AFC South isn't nearly too difficult but they're still behind the curve there - the Titans miracle yesterday helps. I honestly think these are both good teams with a combination of 'normal high-variance play' (Minnesota) and 'tough schedule' (Colts). The Vikings easily could've beaten Arizona, the only team that played them that close. The Colts lost a close game to the Rams and Ravens, two of the series of really good teams this year. I truly think these teams in a vacuum are 10-7 good but are going to find it tough to get there (that said a 7-4 finish for the VIkings doesn't seem to tough.

Tier VII - The "I have no idea?" Duo

14.) Cleveland Browns  =  3-3  (156-151)

13.) Tennessee Titans  =  4-2  (166-161)

They have nearly identical points scored and points allowed. They both have looked great at times and brutal at others. The Browns defense went from holding the Vikings to 7 in Minnesota to getting demolished back to back weeks - they have really poor pass rush if Myles Garrett is anything but awesome. The Titans of course just beat Buffalo, some luck helped but their offense consistently moved it against the league's best defense so far. Of course, their offense found the Jets a lot tougher to deal with a couple weeks back. Teams like these come around every year, that have a baseline around .500 but can surprise good to great teams and lose to bad ones (granted, Cleveland hasn't lost to a 'bad' team), and these two are prime examples of that.

Tier VIII - The "I really have no idea?!" Trio

12.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  4-2  (147-144)
11.) New Orleans Saints  =  3-2   (127-91)

10.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-2  (148-111)

I'll say this, the Raiders looked like the good team from weeks 1-3 without Jon Gruden. They also seemed a lot more dynamic, but that may be just the staid performances in the last two games with Gruden. I have no idea how long this bump will last for, but the talent exists there to still win ten games. For the Saints, their defense has to carry them as Winston has not really adjusted to playing in a Payton system. That said, in my mind he would've been a far better fit in the Payton systems from 2006-2012 or so, where the deep ball was still a common element. For the Bengals, more on them in my 'Game of the Week', but this is a good team. If not for some hilariously stupid field goal issues they would be 5-1. Of course, if not for some good field goal luck they would be 2-4 or something. All I do know is Joe Burrow has so much Carson Palmer in him, Chase can be his Ocho Cinco, and the defense is better than expected. Also Zak Taylor may just be a better coach than we thought - weird OT safe play calling aside.

Tier IX - The "Maybe the AFC West Isn't over..." Duo

9.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  3-3  (185-176)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-2  (148-150)

It's weird how quickly a gap in a division can get reduced. The Chargers get hammered, but still have a lot of the look of a great team - including in a win in Kansas City, and yet I don't think anyone would honestly pick them to hold off the Chiefs at this point. The Chiefs remind me of a cross between a late-era Manning team (unstoppable offense, terrible defense) and a late-Patriots-era Brady team (slow start and catches up with some upstart by midseason). For now I'll keep the Chargers ahead, but mostly because I really don't know the Chiefs solution on the defensive side. Really without a trade I don't know what the route there is.

Tier X - The "Just slightly below great" Duo

7.) Dallas Cowboys  =  5-1  (205-146)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  5-1  (179-127)

I have no idea how to rank these two and the next two. I went into the season very worried that the NFC would be a cake-walk for a certain Mr. Brady. Instead, we could see four really nice divisional winners. Admittedly, the Cardinals lead the NFC West, but putting them aside, a divisional around featuring these two and the next two seems exciting. Both these teams are good, with the Rams a higher ceiling defense and the Cowboys a higher ceiling offense. Both have some flaws, be it coaching on the Cowboys side (mostly abhorrent clock management) and average O-Line play (Rams). I like both teams and they've shown an ability to beat good teams and hammer bad ones. I just do worry of how much better they can get to what they are now.

Tier XI - The "Aging I guess isn't a thing...." Duo

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  5-1  (195-144)

4.) Green Bay Packers  =  5-1  (144-136)

Both teams are great and what not. The Packers defense is far better than expected, especially while missing one of the Smiths. The Bucs defense has had two decent games while missing like half their secondary. But honestly, let's not bury the lede. In any other sport, if guys like Brady and Rodgers were playing this good in their careers - notably getting way better after a few fallow years (for Rodgers, 2017-2019, and for Brady 2018-19 - and yes, 2018 a Super Bowl season was honestly not that good for Tom), we would start thinking they're on something. It's amazing how little scrutiny these two, or even Brees or Rivers or Peyton, got.

Tier XII - The "America's Teams" Trio

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-2  (203-98)

2.) Baltimore Ravens  =  5-1  (170-123)

1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  6-0  (194-109)

Screw it, I still think the Bills are among the league's best, despite dropping that game. I personally felt they controlled that game from start to finish. It was a bit disheartening to see their pass rush held at bay against a very good OL, but I somewhat chalk that up to having to play two straight road primetime games. The fact that they won easily in one of them and came a Josh Allen slip from winning the other says a lot. For the Ravens and Cardinals, the fact they won their games so easly against two good teams (that also played each other the week prior) also says a lot. Both of these two are just humming at the moment and are so well rounded they can overcome mistakes like Lamara's interception. I do worry slightly on the Ravens defense inconsistency, but the offense is super consistent so far, and the Cardinals offense is doing a great 2019 Ravens impression. That would be a fascinating Super Bowl, as would Bills vs. Cardinals. And one last point on me putting the 2-loss Bills here - they have a bye coming up but look at the schedule ahead of that - there some blowouts a coming.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Buffalo Bills (4-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3), Dallas Cowboys (5-1), Minnesota Vikings (3-3), Los Angeles Chargers (4-2), Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

13.) Atlanta Falcons (2-3)  @  Miami Dolphins (1-5)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) New York Jets (1-5)  @  New England Patriots (2-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

11.) Houston Texans (1-5)  @  Arizona Cardinals (6-0)  (4:25 - CBS)

10.) Detroit Lions (0-6)  @  Los Angeles Rams (5-1)  (4:05 - FOX)
9.) Carolina Panthers (3-3)  @  New York Giants (1-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)  (4:05 - FOX)

7.) Chicago Bears (3-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)  (4:25 - CBS)
6.) New Orleans Saints (3-2)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-4)  @  (MNF - ESPN)
5.) Washington Football Team (2-4)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Denver Broncos (3-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (3-3)  (TNF - NFLN)
3.) Indianapolis Colts (2-4)  @  San Francisco 49ers (2-3)  (SNF - NBC)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)  @  Tennessee Titans (4-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)  @  Baltimore Ravens (5-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

The Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 27: Roy Oswalt in the 2010 NLCS

**I thought of this given how I just wrote a paean to the 2021 Astros, a team that made its fifth straight ALCS. They could lose it - they probably will lose it. But they're still there. 11 years ago, they weren't even close. They were about to embark on a tank-a-thon unlike anything ever seen. We didn't know it yet in 2010, when our star pitcher Roy Oswalt took the mound for the Phillies. He pitched great - probably his last mainstream great performance. But my story here isn't around celebrating seeing my player pitch great, but ruing that it had to happen this way. It's an interesting look into the life of a forlorn, depressed Astros fan not getting the joy he expected.**

There I was, watching my baseball hero, my baseball idol, basically the reason why I love baseball, pitching in front of a great crowd in a critical postseason game. He was on the mound, soaking it all in. He lives for these games, and I lived, waiting five years, for one of these games. Just like he did so many times before, Roy Oswalt picked up the baseball, fired strikes, shut down the opposing team, and won a playoff game. All the while, I could not help thinking, "This is not how it was supposed to turn out." I expected to be enthralled watching Roy Oswalt pitch a gem in a postseason game, and I was, but I was nowhere near as excited as I thought I would be. 

If anything, seeing Roy Oswalt pitch his way to the headlines in another uniform was one of the harder experiences of my sports fan life. Roy Oswalt is still a great pitcher, is still my favorite, and I hope to God that he wins the World Series this year, because he deserves it for being the most consistently great pitcher of the last decade. But he is no longer our great pitcher. He is the guy who got away. He was supposed to be an Astro for life. The Astros team that was one of the best in the NL from 2001-2006 was his team, built around him and pitching first. He was the frontman of the team, the image of the team. 

He was everything that we Astros' fans loved about the 2005 NL Pennant winning Astros. Tough, gritty, talented and most of all, resilient. That Astros team was our team. Every fan probably has that one year with their team that it all came together, that it all was perfect. As a Colts fan, that was the 2005 regular season, and the 2006 postseason. If they happened in the same year, that would have been great, but they happened 13 months apart, so it was fine. As an Astros fan, that was 2005. 

By then, I was a huge Astros fan, and more importantly a larger fan of Roy Oswalt, our young, talented, brilliant 20-game winner from 2004. The team was gutted at the start of 2005, starting the season 15-30 with Lance Berkman hobbling and Carlos Beltran weaseling his way to disappointing the Mets fans. That is when Roy became the guy. The Astros finished the 2005 regular season on a 74-43 run, with Oswalt winning 20 games for the second straight year, and this time doing it with an ERA under 3.00. Oswalt was now a star, and he was headed for the great stage. 

In the 2005 NLCS, against the best team in the majors that year (the Cardinals, who went 101-61, and had the NL MVP and Cy Young Award Winner), Oswalt had two starts. Both came in a game following an Astros loss. Both were in St. Louis. Both were 7 inning, one run affairs. Game 2 was important to change the tone of the series, Game 6 was legendary. Mitch Williams said at the top of FOX's broadcast that this game 2 of the 2010 NLCS was the biggest game of Roy Oswalt's career. This enraged me.

Sure, the Astros are now a down-trodden, midget of a franchise, barely hanging on to any shred of dignity they may still have, but that doesn't mean that what Roy Oswalt did in Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS was any less impressive. That was my team, my pitcher, my game, and my greatest baseball memory. One game after Pujols' epic home run to steal Game 5 when the Astros were one out away from winning the NLCS, Oswalt toed the rubber in St. Louis. Bill Simmons called the series over, saying the Astros would never be able to recover from losing game 5. Roy Oswalt probably doesn't know who Bill Simmons is, and that is not the only reason I love him. In the first inning, Oswalt faced Pujols, and quickly got to an 0-2 count. The next pitch effectively ended the series. Oswalt threw a 95 mph fastball up and in. Pujols swung, missed and fell over to his knees and struck out. 

Oswalt had won, beating the man that haunted the Astros, and breaking the spirit of the Cardinals. Oswalt threw 7 innings of 3 hit 8 strikeout ball to win the series for the Astros. He won the NLCS MVP in that series, with 14 innings, 8 hits, 15 strikeouts, and two wins in St. Louis against the NL's best offense. Yeah, Mitch Williams, I think he's pitched bigger games. This is why I don't feel the same watching Oswalt pitch brilliantly in the spotlight again, because he's not on my team. We loved him. We appreciated the beauty of watching that man pitch even if the team was 45-57. The Phillies' fans see him as a rented hand, a mercenary brought on to win a ring. We saw him as a brother, a friend, a hero. Roy Oswalt was the best Astros pitcher maybe in team history (Nolan Ryan can probably dispute that). Roy Oswalt was our favorite pitcher. The Astros from 2006-2009 were not any good (the 2008 team was a smoke and mirrors 86-76), but we always felt that at least every fifth day, we had the best team, because we had Roy. 

 The only Roy getting credit is Halladay. Halladay is a great pitcher, and his no-hitter was great. But the sign of a truly great one is what Oswalt did in Game 2. After Halladay lost, leaving the Phillies in an unenviable position heading into game 2, Oswalt did what a true ace does. He stopped the bleeding. He came out and retired the first 14 batters of the game. He gave up three hits all night, and struck out nine. He had the whole crowd behind him. But it was the wrong crowd. It is the crowd that still loves Halladay more, and still loves Hamels more. Loving Hamels more is fine, since he's their Oswalt. 

Oswalt was the homegrown guy, the prospect and then the rookie we saw grow up, mature and dominate. The 2005 Astros had two other aces, in Clemens and Pettitte, but Oswalt was the "ace", and the hometown favorite because he was with us from the start. He wasn't brought in here when the going was good, and he was going to stay when the going was bad, unlike Pettitte who fled back to his mommy in the Bronx. When Oswalt finally, quietly asked for a trade, we all defended him, and agreed with him, because all of us wanted a trade from the Astros too. Roy got his wish, and we got our wish, to watch him pitch great in the biggest of games again. We got to see him pitch in front of a crowd and raise the energy of a ballpark again, we just all wish it was our ballpark.

5 Years in a Row

I've been an Astros fan in silence ever since that sorry December day in 2019 when I found out my team rampantly cheated. I've never shied away from that fact. They did. They were punished - even if people get upset no individual player was. They became pariahs overnight, a group of players I summarily loved suddenly tarred. A set of memories of late nights in that incredible 2017 postseason, suddenly dampened. It was rough, because I do care. I still care. It took me a while to even watch highlights of the 2017 playoff run. Even if I know the sign-stealing didn't make them world beaters. Even if I knew the Astros weren't alone in their spycraft. Even if I know all of this, it took me a while to accept it.

I don't know when I eventually did, it was probably about the time the Astros made their 4th straight ALCS last year, in that bastardized season where their 29-31 record, fit with a lot of hitters having off seasons. They still fought their way to the ALCS, beating their divisional rival A's in teh ALDS. They valiantly fought back from 0-3 down in the ALCS to force a game 7. In that moment, it was finally reasonably fun to be an Astros fan. Yes, they cheated. Yes they deserved scorn, but you could not say they didn't care or didn't fight or weren't great.

Following them this season has largely been a blast. They were somewhat underrated coming into the season - it made sense. When they won 107 games and reached the World Series they had a top offense coupled with a rotation led by Verlander and Cole. Both of those guys were gone, their starting rotation was Lance McCullers and a bunch of randoms. But they still had that offense... and oh did they ever.

Four years after this run started, after their sullied triumph led by their top ranked offense, they had the best offense again. By nearly every measure the Astros 2021 offense was the best in baseball. It was also exactly as good by WRC+ on the road as it was at home. They had Carlos Correa finally healthy for a full season. Altuve trading average for more power. Yordan Alvarez healthy again after missing much of 2019. Yuli Gurriel leading the AL in batting average. Kyle Tucker becoming a superstar who had probably the best September of any hitter. Even guys like Jake Myers playing decently well in George Springer's shoes. They were a dominant offense. It felt good again.

I don't ask for anyone's praise on my team. I know they're still hated, but to see them all succeed, and get back to where they so seemingly well belong - the ALCS - has been a joy. They dominated Chicago, themselves a great young lineup, scoring 6-9-6-10. They fought back after baseless cheating allegations after scoring 'just' six runs in Game 3 by clobbering the White Sox for ten in the clincher. They don't strike out. They don't give easy outs. They can hit incredibly well on the road. This is a great offense, period.

But it is so much more, it is the culmination of a five year run. The starting infield in these playoffs is the same it was in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. The infield of Gurriel - Bregman - Correa - Altuve is the best infield, from a playoff record perspective ever. The 2B/SS combo of Altuve - Correa is arguably the greatest double-pay tandem in playoff history. They just win series. I'm cherishing it because it just feels good to root for this team again.

I also cherish it because I don't know how much longer it lasts. When they won in 2017, it seemed limitless, and in some ways it was. The Astros won 101 games in 2017, they won 103 in 2018 (though by and large not being as good), and then 107 in 2019. They got better on offense somehow by 2019. They got better at pitching. They had it all, but quietly they were also slowly coming apart. 

The first step was losing Cole after 2019, and then Verlander to Tommy John in 2020. Three straight seasons the Astros the Astros gave up prospects at the deadline to get star pitchers, and it undoubtedly worked, but it came at a great cost. Their farm system that was MLB's best around 2015, when this all started when Carlos Correa was called up, was slowly broken apart by both graduating prospects and giving them up.

Couple the pitcher splurging (none of the three are starting this postseason), with losing Springer and almost assuredly losing Correa this offseason, the Astros from 2017-2021 are very much ending. They'll be good next year. They still have most of the core of this team, and guys like Alvarez and Tucker are squarely top-20 hitters more or less. Verlander could be back. But losing Correa, after losing Springer, it won't be teh same. And that is OK - but that means I have to truly cherish this season and their accomplishment.

It's hard to realize this when it's happening, but the Astros five-straight ALCS appearances is an incredible accomplishment. The 70's A's did this, the 90's Braves did, but no one else - from the Yankees of recent times, to the Dodgers, to anyone. No, these Astros did. They did it with five guys, the four mentioned above and Lance McCullers there in 2017 and there today. They did it with enough consistent performers that Astros from this era litter high up in leaderboards of career playoff stats - see Jose Altuve getting his 19th postseason home run today to tie him with George Springer. The Astros are inevitable.

It won't always be this way. It wasn't this way. I became an Astros fan around 2001 or so, but in reality back in 2004. My first two years seriously following them they went to the NLCS two times, making the World Series the second year. Then they went through a sudden, seeming endless drop to disaster, from five seasons holding on to false hope (2006-2010), to three embarrasingly bad seasons of tanking and rebuilding (2011-13). We paid our dues, and we've been rewarded. Yes, that's why I'm even more upset and sad aroudn the cloud that surrounds 2017, but also why I feel ok letting that go and just going back to loving these guys.

I'm writing this paean now, not after the ALCS or the World Series, because for a lot of me I don't care too much if they lose. I would be upset. I would like the avenge the 2018 ALCS loss, a series that somehow the Astros lost 4-1 despite out-hitting the Red Sox in the series. It was a perfect example of how not to string hits together or how not to play the big moments. It was a series of tarps and fan interferences and great catches for Boston. It would be great to wipe some of that away, but even if we don't, the memory and the legacy of five straight ALCSs is enough to cement this team and to cement my memories, including 2017, forever.

NFL 2021: Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Dregs of the Dregs" Quadro

32.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  0-5  (93-152)

31.) Miami Dolphins  =  1-4  (79-154)

30.) New York Jets  =  1-4  (67-121)

29.) Houston Texans  =  1-4  (89-141)

Tier II - The "Guys, we're really not that bad!" Duo

28.) Detroit Lions  =  0-5  (98-138)

27.) New York Giants  =  1-4  (103-139)

Tier III - The "Guys, truly we aren't that bad!" Quadro

26.) Atlanta Falcons  =  2-3  (105-148)
25.) Indianapolis Colts  =  1-4  (108-128)

24.) Washington Football Team  =  2-3  (123-155)
23.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  2-3  (115-124)

Tier IV - The "Combine teams and maybe we go 11-6" Duo

22.) New England Patriots  =  2-3  (96-92)
21.) Seattle Seahakws  =  2-3  (120-126)

Tier V - The "Soft Underbelly of the NFL" Quadro

20.) Chicago Bears  =  3-2  (84-100)
19.) Minnesota Vikings  =  2-3  (113-109)
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  2-3  (94-112)

17.) San Francisco 49ers  =  2-3  (117-119)

Tier VI - The "Yeah......" Uno

16.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  3-2  (113-120)

Tier VII - The "In better news!" Uno

15.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-2  (114-100)

Tier VIII - The "Can defense save us?" Trio

14.) Denver Broncos  =  3-2  (102-76)
13.) New Orleans Saints  =  3-2  (127-91)

12.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-2  (115-87)

Tier IX - The "Can offense save us?" Trio

11.) Tennessee Titans  =  3-2  (132-130)
10.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  2-3  (154-163)

9.) Cleveland Browns  =  3-2  (142-114)

Tier X - The "Just plain good teams" Trio

8.) Green Bay Packers  =  4-1  (120-122)

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  4-1  (142-116)

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  4-1  (141-116)

Tier XI - The "Let's talk about last night" Uno

5.) Baltimore Ravens  =  4-1  (136-117)

Tier XII - The "NFC Contenders (minus one)" Duo

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  4-1  (167-122)

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  4-1  (170-117)

Tier XIII - The "Honestly, this would be a great Super Bowl" Duo

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  4-1  (172-64)
1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  5-0  (157-95)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:

Byes: San Francisco 49ers (2-3), New York Jets (1-4), Atlanta Falcons (2-3), New Orleans Saints (3-2)

14.) Miami Dolphins (1-4)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) Houston Texans (1-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (1-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)  @  Detroit Lions (0-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Los Angeles Rams (4-1)  @  New York Giants (1-4)  (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Minnesota Vikings (2-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Seattle Seahawks (2-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)  (SNF - NBC)

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)  (TNF - NFLN)
7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-1)  @  New England Patriots (2-3)  (4:25 - CBS)
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)  @  Washington Football Team (2-3)  (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Green Bay Packers (4-1)  @  Chicago Bears (3-2)  (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)  @  Denver Broncos (3-2)  (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Arizona Cardinals (5-0)  @  Cleveland Browns (3-2)  (4:05 - FOX)
2.) Buffalo Bills (4-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (3-2)  (MNF - ESPN)
1.) Los Angeles Chargers (4-1)  @  Baltimore Ravens (4-1)  (1:00 - CBS)

NFL 2021: Week 5 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-4 Teams

Tier 1a: The "Yeah, no surprise here!" Duo

2.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  0-4  (74-115)

1.) Detroit Lions  =  0-4  (81-119)

The Jaguars may have a bright future with Trevor Lawrence. I think he'll be special, this is a team devoid of talent and he's kept them somewhat competitive. What doesn't help is Urban Meyer is well on the side of the 'can't do it when you're team isn't more talented' ledger at the moment in terms of college coaches trying to cut it in the NFL. It already seems obvious he's a goner. Less obvious is the Lions being bad again. I do think there is enough talent to win a few games, and the defense generally plays hard, but for seemingly the twentieth straight year the Lions are just lacking in talent. One day, fifty years from now, maybe having the Jags and Lions at the bottom of the league will seem surprising, but we are so far away from taht at the moment.

Ranking the 1-3 Teams

Tier 2a: The "QBs are important, I guess" Trio

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  1-3  (62-109)

9.) Houston Texans  =  1-3  (67-116)

8.) New York Jets  =  1-3  (47-94)

The Dolphins were one win against the Bills B team to making the playoffs last year. That seems miles away right now. Granted, Tua hasn't played, but nothing on that offense makes me think they'll magically get better. The Dolphins were masquerading last year with a bunch of return TDs and the like. Those are gone. The Texans are also missing their starting QB, who has silently just disappeared I guess. The team is just a mess. It's hard to think we're in year 20 of the Texans franchise and this is where they're at. Somehow, the Jets at least maybe have a QB. It was one game, and Wilson still had some bad throws but he also had some incredible throws mixed in. The defense is playing like a Robert Salah defense. There may be something here - but it is still a bit early to know.

Tier 2b: The "I guess some older QBs age?" Duo

7.) Atlanta Falcons  =  1-3  (78-128)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  1-3  (67-93)

You know how Tom Brady is not aging, despite this being a sport that basically everyone does, with him doing things no one even three years younger have done? Yeah, well he's still unique because both of these guys are. Yes, Matt Ryan was great last week but he really can't throw the deep ball too well. Ben Roethlisberger can't throw it all! Watching Roethlisberger throw quick outs and check downs on fourth down is just bizarre. It's wasting what is geniunely still a good defense. The Falcons don't have a defense at all, that was an embarrassing loss.

Tier 2c

5.) New England Patriots  =  1-3  (70-71)

4.) Indianapolis Colts  =  1-3  (83-97)

3.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  1-3  (94-106)

All of these teams need to overcome QB weaknesses - it's just odd the Colts weak QB is a former #2 overall pick. Wentz has probably been both well better than last year and disappointing. For the Patriots, they're basically running the early-Brady offense but in a very different league. Mac Jones has the accuracy to make it work, but that team is a lot like a Pennington-era Jets team at the moment - some of those were 10-win teams. The Eagles are just not above average in any real respect, and while they have crafted an offense for Hurts's skills I don't see their OL or targets being good enough to get them above average.

Tier 2d

2.) New York Giants  =  1-3  (83-95)

1.) Minnesota Vikings  =  1-3  (94-92)

The Giants have played three close games and won one of them. They're not a bad team, as even their point differential wouild attest. The offense needs to be better, but defensively they're once again solid. Saquon finally seems to have a spring back. The division is probably too far gone unless they pull an upset this Sunday in Dallas, and likely a wild card is too, but I do see some positives. For the Vikings, it's hard to say. That was just a disaster. Kirk Cousins is maddening - so good the week before when they throttle Seattle and then a 7-point pathetic display. 

Ranking the 2-2 Teams

Tier 3a

7.) Chicago Bears  =  2-2  (64-91)

6.) Washington Football Team  =  2-2  (101-122)

Every year there's a few teams that start 2-2 that just feel they should be way worse, that you're surprised they managed to win two games. It's these two this year. I have no idea how the Bears have done it, and even less idea how Washington has, winning two games by scores of 30-29 and 34-30 for what was supposed to be a top defense. The Bears still have a messy coaching situation and the WFT needs to rediscover something resembling their pass rush from 2020. I doubt either happens and we start to see them with records that fit more with what we would expect.

Tier 3b

5.) Tennessee Titans  =  2-2  (95-111)

4.) San Francisco 49ers  =  2-2  (107-102)

These are your teams that will look incredible impressive for games, but sometimes just for halves. The Titans are just bizarre at this point, losing to the Jets, suddenly forgetting how to protect Tannehill. The division is bad enough that 9-7 likely wins it (if not by multiple games) but the 49ers get no such benefit. I'll be interested to see how Trey Lance plays if he has to start for a few weeks as he was awful aside from the busted coverage TD. What is more worrying for me, to be honest, is how variable that 49ers pass rush is. It was at its 2019 (if not 2011-2013) best in the first half but then went silent - similar happened in the Green Bay game. I guess this is what happened when you have to pick and choose which super talented D-lineman to keep.

Tier 3c

3.) New Orleans Saints  =  2-2  (94-69)

2.) Seattle Seahawks  =  2-2  (103-100)

I want these two to play each other. I'm not sure why, but I feel like they're similar. Both are good teams with good talent, but one that will just disappear at times. The Seahawks offense has such a low floor, but given what we've seen against Carolina, as does the Saints offense. The other units have super high floors. It's simplistic to say, but if the Seahawks coverage is anythign better than garbage (as it was against say Minnesota) or Jameis is not throwing two picks, both teams are among the better ones in the league.

Tier 3d

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  2-2  (134-125)

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The defense is very much a problem. Their pass rush has to resort to blitzing (not that Spags needs much invitation), and with that their secondary is just exposed. I guess it's a high-risk strategy that can result in some takeaways every now and then, but mostly it makes their offense needs to score 30+ points. Well? It turns out when they don't turn the ball over four times they're almost a lock to score 30, if not 40. Mahomes is still the scariest QB in the NFL, but this has a recipe of a very 12-4 2004 Colts Peyton type team.

Ranking the 3-1 Teams

Tier 4a: The "Even if this isn't real, it's important" Uno

12.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  3-1  (92-75)

It probably won't last, but the Bengals are building something. 17 years after Carson Palmer's first season, Joe Burrow is doing a nice imitation, including having his own version of Chad Johnson in Jamarr Chase. Burrow wasn't great in that game but that type of comeback, in a home primetime game, even against a terrible Jags team, is a momentum builder. The Bengals likely fade but this team has a bright, bright future, because I truly believe that Joe Burrow is a future star.

Tier 4b: The "Maybe it was just bad offense the first three weeks" Duo

11.) Denver Broncos  =  3-1  (83-49)

10.) Carolina Panthers  =  3-1  (97-66)

The Broncos and Panthers both started 3-0 on the back of great defenses, incredible ones really. Well, when your defense was being great against Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Daniel Jones, Zack Wilson again, Jameis Winston and finally David Mills. Yeah, that's going to do it. When it comes to then facing Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott? It wasn't as good. I still think both teams are generally good, and as week's go on the Sam Darnold-led offense seems more and more sustainable. But the fact remains that some times an easy schedule is just an easy schedule.

Tier 4c: The "I know the NFL varies week to week, but come on!" Duo

9.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  3-1  (104-100)

8.) Cleveland Browns  =  3-1  (100-67)

The Raiders do this evey year seemingly with Gruden. Last year it was after the Chiefs win. This year it was their 3-0 start, and then they just disappeared for a half. Last year they did the same, thought for a full game, losing 45-3 or something to Atlanta. The Raiders are a decent team, I truly believe that, and even in that game they cut it to 7 with the ball in Chargers territory before the sack & missed field goal. For the Browns, they also seem to go through these stretches where the offense just goes away. Mayfield should not be having games where he's running out of the pocket at the first moment of concern and throwing less than 50% completions in year 4. The defense is legitimately superb but this was a pretty poor showing. Last year the Browns had a 4-5 week stretch like this but most of those games were at home in wind or snow or rain, this was an offensive disaster (admittedly in a win) in a dome.

Tier 4d: The "It's not surprising they played a 20-17 game" Duo

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  3-1  (95-74)

6.) Dallas Cowboys  =  3-1  (126-97)

These two played a really interesting game with more offensive than you would think. In that game both teams come out looking well, with the Cowboys running on the Chargers far better than any other team, and the Chargers limiting the Cowboys on offense to 20 points, way below others. That is impressive. Of course both teams have been relatively impressive in their other games, with the Cowboys only loss being a last-second field goal by the Bucs in Tampa, and the Chargers of course being 3-0 in other games. I do have a sense their ceilings are a bit lower than those I'm ranking above them, but that might be just delaying me trusting them.

Tier 4e

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  3-1  (122-105)

4.) Green Bay Packers  =  3-1  (95-100)

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  3-1  (105-92)

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  3-1  (115-99)

The Bucs escaped that game, and the injuries in their secondary are a problem. They were remarkably healthy last year, and that is certainly not the case. What is the case is their suddenly resurgent run game which can pick up some of the slack. For the Pcakers, more and more I'm getting impressed by the defense. Yes, the steelers offense is a nightmare by this point, but the Packers pass rush is working well even without one of the Smith's. Speaking of pass rush, the Ravens were great. Actually the most impressive part of the Ravens to me so far is their passing game. Lamar is throwing more, and throwing better, from the pocket. If not for a few drops against the Lions we would be probably talking a lot more about this. He was great against a heretofore excellent Broncos defense. And finally for the Rams, everyone gets a bad game - their resume was strong enough the first three weeks to give a mulligan.

Tier 4f: The "Once again, NEVER overreact to Week 1" Uno

1.) Buffalo Bills  =  3-1  (134-44)

The Bills were controlling their Week 1 tilt against the Steelers until a blocked-punt TD gave the Steelers the lead they wouldn't relinquish. Even in that 'bad' game they gave up just 13 real points. Their defense which got a lot better over the second half of last season continued to show. Well? Since then they've shutout two teams and strafed Washington in the middle there. The Bills won't outscore opponents 4:1 all season long, but this is very likely the best team in the NFL at the moment, with Josh Allen not really regressing and the defense looking far more like the 2019 version that was a Top-5 defense. That is a terrifying combination.

Ranking the 4-0 Teams

Tier 5a" The "You know what? I'm sold" Uno

1.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-0  (140-85)

I was a bit of a Cards denier. To me, their win over Tennessee was more about Tennessee playing surprisingly poor. Their win over the Vikings was a bit lucky in a coin flip game. Their win over the Jags was the Jags! But then they went out and just smacked a good Rams team, controlling that game from teh second they got the interception on Stafford. Honestly, it's the defense that has impressed me more than teh offense. The secondary has really improved, they can limit passing attacks. Their offense finally started rushing the ball. This is a really good team, period.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

16.) New York Jets (1-3)  @  Atlanta Falcons (1-3)  (London - NFLN)

15.) Detroit Lions (0-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-3)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Tennessee Titans (2-2)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)  (1:00 - CBS)

13.) New England Patriots (1-3)  @  Houston Texans (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) Miami Dolphins (1-3)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Denver Broncos (3-1)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

10.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)  @  Carolina Panthers (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Indianapolis Colts (1-3)  @  Baltimore Ravens (3-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

8.) Chicago Bears (2-2)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (X-X)  (4:05 - CBS)

7.) New York Giants (1-3)  @  Dallas Cowboys (3-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

6.) New Orleans Saints (2-2)  @  Washington Football Team (2-2)  (1:00 - CBS)

5.) San Francisco 49ers (2-2)  @  Arizona Cardinals (4-0)  (4:25 - FOX)

4.) Cleveland Browns (3-1)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (X-X)  (4:05 - CBS)

3.) Green Bay Packers (3-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (3-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (2-2)  (TNF - NFLN)
1.) Buffalo Bills (3-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)  (SNF - NBC)