Lounging Pass: NFL 2018: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

My favorite week of the season (maybe) might be this week, because it is the first week since Week 3 where all 32 teams are playing, and every team has the same number of games played. It's a nice little re-set to the season.

Tier I - The "2019 isn't too far away" Quinto

32.) Arizona Cardinals (2-9 = 155-295)

31.) Oakland Raiders (2-9 = 187-327)

30.) San Francisco 49ers (2-9 = 239-293)

29.) New York Jets (3-8 = 221-281)

28.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8 = 197-243)

With such a wide section of teams with 4-to-6 wins, there's not too much at the very bottom. These five have kind of separated themselves at the bottom. The Cardinals and Raiders are both dreadful, but in different ways. At least hte Raiders have a plan (tank), with the Cardinals, while I like Josh Rosen, the rest of the team needs a tear-down. The 49ers are stuck in the middle, as they really can't swing in any direction until next year with Garropollo. The Jets and Jaguars are also in need of teardowns, but at least one of them has a QB (though not really sure how good he will be). The Jaguars finally decided to sit Blake Bortles down. The Jaguars got a decent deal on Bortles, but even then it turned out so far worse than anyone could have imagined.

Tier II - The "Frustratingly Semi-Competent Losers" Duo

27.) New York Giants (3-8 = 237-288)

26.) Miami Dolphins (5-6 = 223-283)

The Giants won two straight games, and were up 19-3 on their way to a third win. The Dolphins are still hanging around the wild card race, even after surviving five games with Brock Osweiler. Neither team is terrible based on point differntial, or personnel. They both can hang around games, but also probably lose most of those self-same games. The Giants are reportedly thinking about sitting Eli Manning, but for some unknown reason, not starting Kyle Laluetta. The Dolphins have to seriously start thinking about both Tannehill and Gase.

Tier III - The "We'll win or lose 10-45" Trio

25.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-6 = 276-347)

24.) Buffalo Bills (4-7 = 161-272)

23) Detroit Lions (4-7 = 238-286)

All three teams have enough talent to pull off wins - though in the Bills case, those wins will all come against the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have lost three straight games, and are just a disaster at some point, but it wouldn't shock me to have Dalton and Green, and a defense with far more talent than its results, pull together a few wins. The Lions are the strangest team, with convincing wins over the Patriots and Packers, and a good win over Carolina, but losses to all sorts of teams including those QBed by Chase Daniel. Finally, let's pour one out for the Bills, a team so bad many were thinking of 0-16 and drumming up the old "Can Alabama beat the worst NFL team" takes, and then won four (FOUR!!) games. Sean McDermott honestly should be a Top-10 coach of the year. They'll probably be blown out a few more times, but sneak out a win or two and have the most surprising 6-10 season ever.

Tier IV - The "Weird way we look at the NFC South" Duo

22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7 = 294-338)
21.) Atlanta Falcons (4-7 = 280-307)

It's interesting that both these teams have the same record, and similar point differntials (admittedly, Atlanta's is better), but the way people talk about them is completely different. I've seen a lot of talk about Dirk Koetter's job, but very, very little about Dan Quinn's. I've seen so much hand-wringing about Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but at the end of the day, the Buccaneers have the saem record as Atlanta, a team that some thought of as a Super Bowl contender, or at the very least a team that could hang with New Orleans & Carolina. Of course, I'm part of the problem, as I'm quite sure teh Falcons will likely end up with a better record than the Buccaneers. DVOA has the Falcons as better as well, but that was through Week 11 (Week 12 results not loaded yet). That's a tough spot to be in, given what the expecations were.

Tier V - The "Probably just spoilers, but fun ones" Trio

20.) Cleveland Browns (4-6-1 = 253-283)
19.) Tennessee Titans (5-6 = 195-223)
18.) Green Bay Packers (4-6-1 = 264-267)

In the FOX/CBS/NBC graphics that will be displayed in coming weeks showing the AFC/NFC playoff pictures, these three teams will all be in that right-most 'In the Hunt' column. That said, they all have quite small chances of making the playoffs. The Titans are just a game back, but don't have the tiebreaker against the Colts or Ravens, the two teams ahead of them, and despite the ass-kicking they gave New England, don't seem like a serious playoff threat. However, just like the 4-6-1 teams (and how scary is it that the Browns and Packers have the same record), they can scare teams. The Browns still have Pitsburgh, Baltimore and Carolina. The Packers still have Chicago. The Titans still have the Colts one more time. All three are good bets for 6-9-1, 7-9, 8-8, 7-8-1 or the like.

Tier VI - The "Is it too little too late" Uno

17.) Denver Broncos (5-6 = 252-252)

Three weeks ago, the Broncos were ranked in the Top-10 of DVOA. Since then, they beat the Chargers and Steelers, teams that by record were quite a bit better than them, and by DVOA better (LAC) or about as good (PIT). Now, the DVOA ranking doesn’t seem like a fluke. When we remember this is 2018 where the average team completes 65% of their passes, the Broncos defense is among the league’s five best. The offense has cut turnovers. They have an outside shot of that 6^th seed, and their schedule is fairly navigable. Three of the next four are on the road, but they are against Cincinnati, San Francisco and Cleveland. The Week 17 game against the Chargers looms large. There is a chance, but they have to cross two teams (one of whom beat them head-to-head).

Tier VII - The "(Not) Great NFC East Race" Trio

16.) Washington Redskins (6-5 = 220-229)

15.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-6 = 230-253)

14.) Dallas Cowboys (6-5 = 234-213)

Man, is the NFC East a wasteland. The best team seemingly is the Cowboys. That defense is among the league’s best, though surprisingly DVOA only has them 13^th. The Eagles are still to me the most talented, but their inability to score points reminds me of my issues with the Romo-era Cowboys. The Redskins honestly should be ranked lower. A Colt McCoy led team is not winning the nine games needed. Eagles @ Cowboys will likely decide this division, which is a ridiculous thing to say when the Eagles were down 3-19, staring 4-7 in the face. It’s not all solved, and we have to start at least questioning if Frank Reich and John DeFilippo were more important to 2017 than we initially though.

Tier VIII - The "Three Teams Enter, Two Leave" Trio

13.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1 = 265-246)

12.) Carolina Panthers (6-5 = 287-282)

11.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5 = 276-243)

The Panthers shouldn’t be in this situation. They should have beaten the Lions if not for Graham Gano. They beat the Seahawks if not for Graham Gano and some bad red zone play. In reality, they should be 8-3 right now, even if their point differential wouldn’t be nearly that good. Now, they need help. A big dose of help will come in a couple weeks, when the Vikings and Seahawks play. The winner of that game probably gets one of the two spots. The Vikings also shouldn’t be in this situation, much more talented than their record. The defense is starting to play better, but navigating the upcoming schedule without Xavier Rhodes will be a challenge. The Seahawks are really impressive; their talent level is not Wild Card good, and while they easily could have lost the last two games, their point differential and overall performance has been strong. Even when their newfound run game was stunted against Carolina, they were able to consistently move the ball.

Tier IX - The "Two Teams Enter, One Leaves" Uno

10.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5 = 325-273)

9.) Baltimore Ravens (6-5 = 271-198)

The AFC has a simpler gauntlet scenario (pending the Broncos making a run). The Colts and Ravens are both good, by point differential should probably each be at least 7-4. DVOA has the Ravens better, but not significantly so. The Colts offense is quietly one of the league’s 10 best. The Ravens defense is quietly the league’s 2^nd best. The Ravens have a tougher schedule, road games against the Chiefs still to play. The Colts have easier teams, but all three road divisional games left. I really don’t know which way to lean. The Colts also have a non-zero chance at the division if the Texans slip, which I guess the Ravens still do as well. In the end, I lean slightly towards the Colts. The Lamar Jackson offense worked against two of the worst defences in the NFL, but better teams, like the ones on their schedule, should handle it better.

Tier X - The "Boring AFC Division Winners" Trio

8.) New England Patriots (8-3 = 307-249)

7.) Houston Texans (8-3 = 273-222)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1 = 316-249)

Any of these three teams could make the Super Bowl – yes including Houston, though DVOA isn’t so high on them. Yes, I am somewhat of a Patriots hater, but I do think there are rational arguments they are the worst of the three, though if they played either in the playoffs I would pick the Pats. Brady is still not right – case in point the Pats running three times and punting from the 2-yard line after the 2:00 warning in the first half. Old Brady throws at least once on that series. The defense is giving up more points than almost any previous incarnation. They are 2-3 on the road, including 1-3 against bad teams. The Texans honestly could end up the best team as their OL has started to play better. The defense has more game-changers, which matters more in their defense depressed world. The Steelers are likely going to blow their chance at a 1^st round bye unless they manage to beat New England for once. That loss was harrowing, if totally self-inflicted. To be fair, 1-1 over the last two games is the result they deserve.

Tier XI - The "Can They win playing 2012 football" Duo

5.) Chicago Bears (8-3 = 317-211)

4.) Los Angeles Chargers (8-3 = 307-219)

The title is being a bit unfair to the Chargers, but their offense is more 2012 set than the high-flying, motion stuff that the best 2018 teams have been running. The Bears are essentially copying their old playbook of great defense and high-variance offense to a tee. They are a very good team, now winning with backup QBs. It will all come down to whether their defense can hold up against the Rams or Saints – we’ll get a preview in a couple of weeks, though that will be in Chicago. The Chargers still have a shot at the division, but likely they’ll be on the Wild Card route. They’ve dominated road games so far. Joey Bosa getting back and increasingly healthy completes that team to the level they may be one of the most dangerous wild card teams in recent memory. We haven’t had a 12-win Wild Card team since 2013, we are due (I’m not counting the 2016 Raiders, which I don’t think actually happened).

Tier XII - The "Just play the NFC Championship Game & Super Bowl Now" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-2 = 404-294)

2.) Los Angeles Rams (10-1 = 389-282)

1.) New Orleans Saints (10-1 = 409-256)

If the Super Bowl isn’t Chiefs vs. Rams/Saints, I’ll both be disappointed, and furiously angry, as it means the Patriots probably made it. Chiefs vs. Rams, or Chiefs vs. Saints would both be great games. And I’m all for Rams vs. Saints, part 2, a game in which self-inflicted wounds cost the Rams early and forced them to play catch-up – which they did fairly well. This is the year of offense, it is only fair the best offenses duke it out.

Projecting the Playoffs:

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-3

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 11-4-1

3.) New England Patriots = 11-5

4.) Houston Texans = 11-5

5.) Los Angeles Chargers = 12-4

6.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints = 14-2

2.) Los Angeles Rams = 14-2

3.) Chicago Bears = 12-4