Tier I - The '2019 is not So Far Away' Quinto
32.) Oakland Raiders (1-8 = 147-272)
31.) Arizona Cardinals (2-7 = 124-225)
30.) New York Jets (3-7 = 208-254)
29.) San Francisco 49ers (2-8 = 230-266)
28.) New York Giants (2-7 = 177-228)
These bottom five have really separated themselves from the pack in terms of awfulness - with maybe a slight exception with the 49ers, who have a decent point differential of a better team, but are hard to take seroiusly starting Nick Mullens. The Raiders are absolutely as bad as everyone thought they were, but at least they are basically openly tanking at this point, shedding players left and right. The Cardinals defense is still interesting, but this is essentially a lost year. Starting to say the same about the Jets; I thought Todd Bowles did a good job with an impossible situation in 2016-17, but this year has been dreadful basically since Week 1 ended. The 49ers and Giants are about the same, teams with good talent on defense that shows up every three games or so, and a QB holding back an offensive that should be better due to its scheme (49ers) or roster talent (Giants). Both teams could be surprise contenders next year if Garropollo comes back healthy, and if the Giants cut the cord with Eli.
Tier II - The 'Potentially Dangerous Spoilers' Quadro
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6 = 232-291)
26.) Buffalo Bills (3-7 = 137-251)
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6 = 160-199)
24.) Detroit Lions (3-6 = 202-244)
These four teams are all bad. None of them have any shot of the playoffs barring a six or seven game win streak (not happening). But all four can scare teams a bit more legitimately and more commonly than the bottom five. The Buccaneers can easily move the ball, and if they don't screw up in the red zone in myriad ways, they can fight teams. The Bills are strange having two absolute beat-downs on the road no less, and their defense is good enough to harrass teams. The Jaguars are still talented enough to maybe pull out another 2-3 wins, and still have the ability to make a big impact in the AFC South race. It is sad, though, to see how far they've fallen after the 3-1 start, and it happening to their defense at this point more-so than the offense. The Lions finally have a high peak (easily beating the Packers and Patriots), but are terrible on the road, and their defense falls apart if they don't get a pass rush. Again, all four will win a surprisiing game or two and ruin team's playoff chances, but I can't see them doing any more than just that.
Tier III - The 'Mediocre AFC Ships Passing in the Night' Trio
23.) Miami Dolphins (5-5 = 199-256)
22.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 = 235-288)
21.) Cleveland Browns (3-6-1 = 218-263)
The Dolphins started 3-0. The Bengals started 4-1. Both teams are slipping fast in a tight middle of the AFC. The Bengals are technically better, but their problems seem less fixable, mostly being a defense that has completely collapsed, giving up 500+ yards three straight games. The Dolphins are being hampered by having to play Osweiler, but their offense is just so consistenly uninspired, working on a scheme that is behind a lot of the NFL in terms of innovation. The Browns are not making the playoffs for sure, but they might be more competitive the rest of hte year. I wans't as anti-Hue as most, but if I'm wrong, replacing Jackson (and more than that, any Jackson v. Haley bull-headedness) may have a truly positive effect. Mayfield still looks good, for one, and it was nice to watch Nick Chubb start to chug along.
Tier IV - The 'Definitely Dangerous Spoilers' Duo
20.) Atlanta Falcons (4-5 = 244-254)
19.) Denver Broncos (3-6 = 205-213)
The Falcons, despite their face-plant against Cleveland, have enough offense talent & consistency on that side of the ball (again, removing the last game) to truly scare some teams down the stretch, including having games against the Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, and Packers left. That is a lot of games aginst teams either in the playoffs or fighting for spots. The Broncos are even further away from playoff contention, probably needing a 6-1 finish to even challenge, but if nayhting, they are a better team than Atlanta, with a slightly better point differential, and having played some tough games against good teams (see losses to KC and the Rams).
Tier V - The 'Sadly less than bright NFC Lights' Trio
18.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5 = 181-171)
17.) Green Bay Packers (4-4-1 = 223-216)
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 = 198-183)
Oh, FOX (and NBC probably) is so sad right now that it is very likely none of these three teams are making the playoffs as of now, and need a big 6-1 type run to get there. The Cowboys to me are still the weakest of the three teams, as I don't buy that offense with continued issues and injuries at OL, an Dak's inconsistent play. The Packers still have Rodgers, but even he has dropped his level of play. Aaron Jones is a nice piece, but turning to miracle-worker running backs is an extreme measure. The Eagles still have the most talent, still have the offense that could get incredibly hot as they integrate Golden Tate in, but the injuries are starting to pile up, and worse for them, the number of teams ahead of them are increasing.
Tier VI - The 'Competent But Different' Duo
15.) Indianapolis Colts (4-5 = 260-239)
14.) Washington Redskins (6-3 = 176-175)
These two teams are diametrically opposite, the Colts an offense-first team whose defense is terribly inconsistent. The Redskins are the reverse, with a top-5 defense in 2018 terms, and a QB who has thrown for precisely 178 yards in three of the past four games. The Colts did smack the Redskins around in Week 2, a game that continued the weirdest stat of the year, that the Redskins have yet to experience a lead change in any of their games. The Redskins are being buried by injuries, but they have a style of playing that will keep them in most games. Their defense is still healthy, and performing at a baseline good level. The Colts are basically all about the offense at this point, but with a healthy, strong OL, we see just how good Andrew Luck can be. What he needs is for TY Hilton to return to 2013-2015 form.
Tier VII - The '2008 Offense in 2018' Duo
13.) Seattle Seahawks (4-5 = 219-192)
12.) Tennessee Titans (5-4 = 168-151)
The Seahawks and Titans are similar teams, both defense first, with an offense that will mix heavy running with a QB scrambling around and looking less god than he actually is. The Seahawks are surprisingly good at defense given their personnel losses, and have the best OL in years. They've just been plain bad in close games, that team easily should be 5-4 or 6-3 right now with better luck. The Titans have the league's best scoring defense, and have only gotten stronger. Mariota has looked good the last two weeks, finally setting in to the new offense he's been put in. The OL got significant push on the Patriots, controlling the line easily. That was an impressive back-to-back games for them. The Seahawks too had good performances the last two weeks against top teams (7-2 Chargers, 9-1 Rams), but unlike Tennessee, they lost both.
Tier VIII - The '2008 Everything in 2018' Duo
11.) Houston Texans (6-3 = 216-184)
10.) Baltimore Ravenns (4-5 = 213-160)
The Texans are sneakily 6-3 right now, and while they still have the air of Bill O'Brien's continued presence, If they had a better coach, they honestly could be the best team in the AFC as soon as next year - better coach and healthier OL. That's really all they need. The Ravens ironically have the coach, they've just been unlucky. Not unlucky in their last two losses, but had they just held on against the Saints, a loss that if anything looks more impressive by the week, and sitting at 5-4 with the rest of the AFC falling around them, the story would be a lot different. I hope John Harbaugh doesn't lose his job, but if he does, I'll be very excited to see where he ends up - maybe Houston?
Tier IX - The "Maybe the league is too different" Trio
9.) Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1 = 221-204)
8.) Carolina Panthers (6-3 = 241-232)
7.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 280-236)
All these three teams are good. If any of these three end up winning the Super Bowl, I won't be shocked, just mildly surprised. But all three seem a bit off, whether it is running conventional offenses (Minnesota - relying so much on the brilliance of their two WRs), having a defense that is too old to still have the same impact (Carolina), or a team that is just not as good as they used to be (New England). The two most surprising ones to me are Carolina and New England. For the Panthers, it may be a case where they just ran into a buzzsaw against Pittsburgh, and that happens, but the continued inability of the defense to make red zone stops is surprising. That should improve - usually red zone defense regresses towards the mean, and the Panthers are historically bad at that. For the Patriots, this is the third time they've gone on the road and been basically uncompetitive from beginning to end. The Titans game was a worse version of the Jags lose, and both were more extreme than the Lions game. The Patriots still have a clear shot at a first-round bye, but there is a chance now they may be playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time in nine years. The last time they were not in position for at least the #2 seed this late into the season was in 2012, when they stole it from teh collapsing Texans in Week 17.
Tier X - The 'Hard to Truly Believe Giants" Duo
6.) Chicago Bears (6-3 = 269-175)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1 = 279-209)
At some point, despite how meh Trubisky looks 40% o the time, it matters that the Bears keep blowing teams out. Their point differential is that of an elite team. Their play is that of an elite team. The defense, when it has a healthy Khalil Mack, is one of the best in the NFL - in reality, they may have the best defense in the NFL at least per DVOA. The Bears are a really good team, even if it took a while to gain trust, and even though I would still really like Trubisky to be better. The Steelers are similar in a way, given how they sleepwalked through the beginning of the season. Those Steelers were real. But so are the Steelers that went to Baltimore and fairly easily beat the Ravens and then smashed a good Panthers team. Roethlisberger looks good, the defense has improved their pass rush. While I think they still have significant issues in the back-seven, the pass rush has been able to paper over those issues. They have the inside track to a number two seed now, and they would do well to hold onto that, given how bad they'll be an a potential playoff game in New England.
Tier XI - The "Does LA Realize How Good Their Teams Are" Duo
4.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-2 = 240-186)
3.) Los Angeles Rams (9-1 = 335-231)
Look, I realize the LA area is going through a lot right now, but hopefully, just like the Yankees after 9/11, or the Red Sox after the marathon bombing, or the Astros after Hurricane Maria, the LA fans can take some joy out of having two great teams. The Chargers are really good. Their two losses are to the Chiefs and Rams. The defense is good and Joey Bosa should have a big impact later on. Rivers has been quietly great (9.0 y/a, 115.4 passer rating great). The Rams, of course we all know about. They've had some close calls recently, but the one constant is the offense is just great. It will be interesting to see if they adjust their almost exclusive use of 3WR/1TE personnel with Cooper Kupp likely gone for the season. The defense also needs to improve, and it is more than just losing Aqib Talib.
Tier XII - The "New Super Bowl We All Deserve" Duo
2.) New Orleans Saints (8-1 = 330-232)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 = 353-240)
The Saints have now leapfrogged the Rams for me, though I do think if their head-to-head game was in LA instead of New Orleans, we may be signing a different tune. Anyway, these two teams are both on pace for 550+ points, the Saints on pace to score as much as the 2007 Patriots, and go into 2nd place all-time. At some point, the Saints offense will have a game where Brees doesn't complete 70% of his passes, or the defense is just too bad, but it might not happen until the Super Bowl and that team doing it to them is the Chiefs. I still think the Chiefs, whose defensive improvements seem more sustainable based on personnel than the Saints, are the league's best team. Either way, we saw a Super Bowl last year that had more yards than any game ever (yes, that happened), and if these two make the Super Bowl, it may just beat that one.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4-1)
3.) New England Patriots (11-5)
4.) Houston Texans (10-6)
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
NFC
1.) Los Angeles Rams (14-2)
2.) New Orleans Saints (3-3)
3.) Minnesota Vikings (10-5-1)
4.) Washington Redskins (10-6)
5.) Carolina Panthers (11-5)
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), Buffalo Bills (3-7), New York Jets (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (2-8), Miami Dolphins (5-5), New England Patriots (7-3)
**Couple notes on the byes, first, nice to have mostly all bad teams on a bye, makes the slate of games stronger than usual; and second, I don't think I've ever seen a full division get a bye at the same time - honestly, the NFL should just have eight weeks with byes, and have a division take the bye all at the same time**
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) @ New York Giants (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (1-8) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-7) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we have two games that feature bad teams playing each other. At this point in the season, it is easy to identify the worst games by using that handy guidance. Luckily, since four bad teams (and a very unenjoyable fifth one in the Dolphins) are on a bye this week, there's only two of these games. Little to say about either one.
11.) Denver Broncos (3-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-2) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Good' Sunday, as in reality, this is the grouping that is most winnowed by having so many bad teams on a bye. The only interesting thing about these games normally is seeing if any of the bad teams can play spoiler. To me, the most likely one of the three is Jacksonville waking up by having a triggering memory of what it was like to play a good team in their hey-day, being a rematch against the Steelers from last year's playoff game. The Panthers need this win but their road performances so far have been a bit worrying. Finally, the Chargers are in great position even if they lose this game.
8.) Houston Texans (6-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Good vs. Good, but not that meaningful" Sunday, as we get a game between two first place teams, but there's not that much exciting about it. The excitement from this game is more forward looking in terms of the loser having their division lead reduced (or in Huston's case, potentially puts them in a tie for first place). The one aspect I am interested to see play out is if JJ Watt and Clowney can just destroy the Redskins sad-sack OL.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tennessee Titans (5-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Not as interesting of positioning/elimination" Sunday, there's four games this week between two 4-or-5 wins teams. Each of them are in a case where the winner can re-establish themselves as playoff favorites, while the loser is in bad shape. These two sets are just the ones I don't see as being as interesting. I don't know if either the Cowboys or Falcons are a good team, and both have a tough shot anyway even for the winner. The Titans have the most to gain, being able to keep pace with the Texans. Or maybe the Colts, who could get back to .500, with a pretty manageable schedule ahead, have the most to gain.
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (8-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Do the real Eagles stand up?" Sunday, as what in theory should have been a game between two heavyweights in the NFC has lost all its luster by the Eagles continued sleepwalk through 2018. The Eagles, despite their injuries, are too talented to be 4-5 with 4-6 staring them in the face. I still believe in this team long-term, and seemingly more talented Super Bowl participants have had similarly 'year from hell' years (just have to go back to two years ago with the 2016 Panthers going 6-10), but the Eagles were so well built last season. I have a feeling they give the Saints a competitive game, but I can also see Brees repeatedly attacking Rasul Butler over and over and over again. An Eagles loss, with road games still left against the Rams and Cowboys, basically eliminates them. If there was ever a week to get back on track with a statement, this is it.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-5) (TNF - FOX)
I call it "The more interesting positioning/elimination" Sunday, as these are the other two games between 4-or-5 win teams, which I do find as more interesting than the other ones. The Bengals vs. Ravens has lost so much luster since the last time these two teams met, both at 1-0 when the Steelers were 0-0-1. Anyway, if the Ravens win and end their losing streak, with a somewhat manageable schedule left, that puts them right back on track. I'm more interested in the NFC game. The loser between these two teams, a pair of teams that from 2012-2016 made the playoffs every single year. The loser is essentially done, missing the playoffs a second striaght year. The winner is probably also missing the playoffs (the Panthers and Bears/Vikings loser will still have a good chance making the playoffs over the winner of this game), but at least they can live to dream.
2.) Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) @ Chicago Bears (6-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Good vs. Good, but really damn meaningful" Sunday, as we get the NFC East Battle of Giants, Pt.1, two fun teams that can play defense, that have offenses that are highly variable, but if both good at the same time, are incredibly fun to watch. I can't wait to watch the Vikings reborn defense against Trubiusky at home. I can't wait to watch Adam Thelien again. This seriously is a fun game, and the winner will be in great position in the NFC North. To show how long we've come with the Bears, this is their first home SNF game in six years, so I expect a great Soldier Field crowd as well.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) @ St. Louis Rams (9-1) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Finally, we get the game we wnated since like Week 3" Monday, and in reality there's not much to say. The game should be great, whether in Mexico City, or, as seems to be becoming increasingly likely, back in LA beacuse of the bad turf. The Chiefs definitely seem stronger right now, but if the Rams can block the Chiefs front, they can easily keep pace. Should be a great game, one with big implications for the Rams, as a loss likely puts them one-game back of the Saints with the head-to-head loss. I seriously can't wait.
32.) Oakland Raiders (1-8 = 147-272)
31.) Arizona Cardinals (2-7 = 124-225)
30.) New York Jets (3-7 = 208-254)
29.) San Francisco 49ers (2-8 = 230-266)
28.) New York Giants (2-7 = 177-228)
These bottom five have really separated themselves from the pack in terms of awfulness - with maybe a slight exception with the 49ers, who have a decent point differential of a better team, but are hard to take seroiusly starting Nick Mullens. The Raiders are absolutely as bad as everyone thought they were, but at least they are basically openly tanking at this point, shedding players left and right. The Cardinals defense is still interesting, but this is essentially a lost year. Starting to say the same about the Jets; I thought Todd Bowles did a good job with an impossible situation in 2016-17, but this year has been dreadful basically since Week 1 ended. The 49ers and Giants are about the same, teams with good talent on defense that shows up every three games or so, and a QB holding back an offensive that should be better due to its scheme (49ers) or roster talent (Giants). Both teams could be surprise contenders next year if Garropollo comes back healthy, and if the Giants cut the cord with Eli.
Tier II - The 'Potentially Dangerous Spoilers' Quadro
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6 = 232-291)
26.) Buffalo Bills (3-7 = 137-251)
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6 = 160-199)
24.) Detroit Lions (3-6 = 202-244)
These four teams are all bad. None of them have any shot of the playoffs barring a six or seven game win streak (not happening). But all four can scare teams a bit more legitimately and more commonly than the bottom five. The Buccaneers can easily move the ball, and if they don't screw up in the red zone in myriad ways, they can fight teams. The Bills are strange having two absolute beat-downs on the road no less, and their defense is good enough to harrass teams. The Jaguars are still talented enough to maybe pull out another 2-3 wins, and still have the ability to make a big impact in the AFC South race. It is sad, though, to see how far they've fallen after the 3-1 start, and it happening to their defense at this point more-so than the offense. The Lions finally have a high peak (easily beating the Packers and Patriots), but are terrible on the road, and their defense falls apart if they don't get a pass rush. Again, all four will win a surprisiing game or two and ruin team's playoff chances, but I can't see them doing any more than just that.
Tier III - The 'Mediocre AFC Ships Passing in the Night' Trio
23.) Miami Dolphins (5-5 = 199-256)
22.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 = 235-288)
21.) Cleveland Browns (3-6-1 = 218-263)
The Dolphins started 3-0. The Bengals started 4-1. Both teams are slipping fast in a tight middle of the AFC. The Bengals are technically better, but their problems seem less fixable, mostly being a defense that has completely collapsed, giving up 500+ yards three straight games. The Dolphins are being hampered by having to play Osweiler, but their offense is just so consistenly uninspired, working on a scheme that is behind a lot of the NFL in terms of innovation. The Browns are not making the playoffs for sure, but they might be more competitive the rest of hte year. I wans't as anti-Hue as most, but if I'm wrong, replacing Jackson (and more than that, any Jackson v. Haley bull-headedness) may have a truly positive effect. Mayfield still looks good, for one, and it was nice to watch Nick Chubb start to chug along.
Tier IV - The 'Definitely Dangerous Spoilers' Duo
20.) Atlanta Falcons (4-5 = 244-254)
19.) Denver Broncos (3-6 = 205-213)
The Falcons, despite their face-plant against Cleveland, have enough offense talent & consistency on that side of the ball (again, removing the last game) to truly scare some teams down the stretch, including having games against the Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, and Packers left. That is a lot of games aginst teams either in the playoffs or fighting for spots. The Broncos are even further away from playoff contention, probably needing a 6-1 finish to even challenge, but if nayhting, they are a better team than Atlanta, with a slightly better point differential, and having played some tough games against good teams (see losses to KC and the Rams).
Tier V - The 'Sadly less than bright NFC Lights' Trio
18.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5 = 181-171)
17.) Green Bay Packers (4-4-1 = 223-216)
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 = 198-183)
Oh, FOX (and NBC probably) is so sad right now that it is very likely none of these three teams are making the playoffs as of now, and need a big 6-1 type run to get there. The Cowboys to me are still the weakest of the three teams, as I don't buy that offense with continued issues and injuries at OL, an Dak's inconsistent play. The Packers still have Rodgers, but even he has dropped his level of play. Aaron Jones is a nice piece, but turning to miracle-worker running backs is an extreme measure. The Eagles still have the most talent, still have the offense that could get incredibly hot as they integrate Golden Tate in, but the injuries are starting to pile up, and worse for them, the number of teams ahead of them are increasing.
Tier VI - The 'Competent But Different' Duo
15.) Indianapolis Colts (4-5 = 260-239)
14.) Washington Redskins (6-3 = 176-175)
These two teams are diametrically opposite, the Colts an offense-first team whose defense is terribly inconsistent. The Redskins are the reverse, with a top-5 defense in 2018 terms, and a QB who has thrown for precisely 178 yards in three of the past four games. The Colts did smack the Redskins around in Week 2, a game that continued the weirdest stat of the year, that the Redskins have yet to experience a lead change in any of their games. The Redskins are being buried by injuries, but they have a style of playing that will keep them in most games. Their defense is still healthy, and performing at a baseline good level. The Colts are basically all about the offense at this point, but with a healthy, strong OL, we see just how good Andrew Luck can be. What he needs is for TY Hilton to return to 2013-2015 form.
Tier VII - The '2008 Offense in 2018' Duo
13.) Seattle Seahawks (4-5 = 219-192)
12.) Tennessee Titans (5-4 = 168-151)
The Seahawks and Titans are similar teams, both defense first, with an offense that will mix heavy running with a QB scrambling around and looking less god than he actually is. The Seahawks are surprisingly good at defense given their personnel losses, and have the best OL in years. They've just been plain bad in close games, that team easily should be 5-4 or 6-3 right now with better luck. The Titans have the league's best scoring defense, and have only gotten stronger. Mariota has looked good the last two weeks, finally setting in to the new offense he's been put in. The OL got significant push on the Patriots, controlling the line easily. That was an impressive back-to-back games for them. The Seahawks too had good performances the last two weeks against top teams (7-2 Chargers, 9-1 Rams), but unlike Tennessee, they lost both.
Tier VIII - The '2008 Everything in 2018' Duo
11.) Houston Texans (6-3 = 216-184)
10.) Baltimore Ravenns (4-5 = 213-160)
The Texans are sneakily 6-3 right now, and while they still have the air of Bill O'Brien's continued presence, If they had a better coach, they honestly could be the best team in the AFC as soon as next year - better coach and healthier OL. That's really all they need. The Ravens ironically have the coach, they've just been unlucky. Not unlucky in their last two losses, but had they just held on against the Saints, a loss that if anything looks more impressive by the week, and sitting at 5-4 with the rest of the AFC falling around them, the story would be a lot different. I hope John Harbaugh doesn't lose his job, but if he does, I'll be very excited to see where he ends up - maybe Houston?
Tier IX - The "Maybe the league is too different" Trio
9.) Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1 = 221-204)
8.) Carolina Panthers (6-3 = 241-232)
7.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 280-236)
All these three teams are good. If any of these three end up winning the Super Bowl, I won't be shocked, just mildly surprised. But all three seem a bit off, whether it is running conventional offenses (Minnesota - relying so much on the brilliance of their two WRs), having a defense that is too old to still have the same impact (Carolina), or a team that is just not as good as they used to be (New England). The two most surprising ones to me are Carolina and New England. For the Panthers, it may be a case where they just ran into a buzzsaw against Pittsburgh, and that happens, but the continued inability of the defense to make red zone stops is surprising. That should improve - usually red zone defense regresses towards the mean, and the Panthers are historically bad at that. For the Patriots, this is the third time they've gone on the road and been basically uncompetitive from beginning to end. The Titans game was a worse version of the Jags lose, and both were more extreme than the Lions game. The Patriots still have a clear shot at a first-round bye, but there is a chance now they may be playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time in nine years. The last time they were not in position for at least the #2 seed this late into the season was in 2012, when they stole it from teh collapsing Texans in Week 17.
Tier X - The 'Hard to Truly Believe Giants" Duo
6.) Chicago Bears (6-3 = 269-175)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1 = 279-209)
At some point, despite how meh Trubisky looks 40% o the time, it matters that the Bears keep blowing teams out. Their point differential is that of an elite team. Their play is that of an elite team. The defense, when it has a healthy Khalil Mack, is one of the best in the NFL - in reality, they may have the best defense in the NFL at least per DVOA. The Bears are a really good team, even if it took a while to gain trust, and even though I would still really like Trubisky to be better. The Steelers are similar in a way, given how they sleepwalked through the beginning of the season. Those Steelers were real. But so are the Steelers that went to Baltimore and fairly easily beat the Ravens and then smashed a good Panthers team. Roethlisberger looks good, the defense has improved their pass rush. While I think they still have significant issues in the back-seven, the pass rush has been able to paper over those issues. They have the inside track to a number two seed now, and they would do well to hold onto that, given how bad they'll be an a potential playoff game in New England.
Tier XI - The "Does LA Realize How Good Their Teams Are" Duo
4.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-2 = 240-186)
3.) Los Angeles Rams (9-1 = 335-231)
Look, I realize the LA area is going through a lot right now, but hopefully, just like the Yankees after 9/11, or the Red Sox after the marathon bombing, or the Astros after Hurricane Maria, the LA fans can take some joy out of having two great teams. The Chargers are really good. Their two losses are to the Chiefs and Rams. The defense is good and Joey Bosa should have a big impact later on. Rivers has been quietly great (9.0 y/a, 115.4 passer rating great). The Rams, of course we all know about. They've had some close calls recently, but the one constant is the offense is just great. It will be interesting to see if they adjust their almost exclusive use of 3WR/1TE personnel with Cooper Kupp likely gone for the season. The defense also needs to improve, and it is more than just losing Aqib Talib.
Tier XII - The "New Super Bowl We All Deserve" Duo
2.) New Orleans Saints (8-1 = 330-232)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 = 353-240)
The Saints have now leapfrogged the Rams for me, though I do think if their head-to-head game was in LA instead of New Orleans, we may be signing a different tune. Anyway, these two teams are both on pace for 550+ points, the Saints on pace to score as much as the 2007 Patriots, and go into 2nd place all-time. At some point, the Saints offense will have a game where Brees doesn't complete 70% of his passes, or the defense is just too bad, but it might not happen until the Super Bowl and that team doing it to them is the Chiefs. I still think the Chiefs, whose defensive improvements seem more sustainable based on personnel than the Saints, are the league's best team. Either way, we saw a Super Bowl last year that had more yards than any game ever (yes, that happened), and if these two make the Super Bowl, it may just beat that one.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4-1)
3.) New England Patriots (11-5)
4.) Houston Texans (10-6)
5.) Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
NFC
1.) Los Angeles Rams (14-2)
2.) New Orleans Saints (3-3)
3.) Minnesota Vikings (10-5-1)
4.) Washington Redskins (10-6)
5.) Carolina Panthers (11-5)
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), Buffalo Bills (3-7), New York Jets (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (2-8), Miami Dolphins (5-5), New England Patriots (7-3)
**Couple notes on the byes, first, nice to have mostly all bad teams on a bye, makes the slate of games stronger than usual; and second, I don't think I've ever seen a full division get a bye at the same time - honestly, the NFL should just have eight weeks with byes, and have a division take the bye all at the same time**
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) @ New York Giants (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (1-8) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-7) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we have two games that feature bad teams playing each other. At this point in the season, it is easy to identify the worst games by using that handy guidance. Luckily, since four bad teams (and a very unenjoyable fifth one in the Dolphins) are on a bye this week, there's only two of these games. Little to say about either one.
11.) Denver Broncos (3-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-2) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Good' Sunday, as in reality, this is the grouping that is most winnowed by having so many bad teams on a bye. The only interesting thing about these games normally is seeing if any of the bad teams can play spoiler. To me, the most likely one of the three is Jacksonville waking up by having a triggering memory of what it was like to play a good team in their hey-day, being a rematch against the Steelers from last year's playoff game. The Panthers need this win but their road performances so far have been a bit worrying. Finally, the Chargers are in great position even if they lose this game.
8.) Houston Texans (6-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Good vs. Good, but not that meaningful" Sunday, as we get a game between two first place teams, but there's not that much exciting about it. The excitement from this game is more forward looking in terms of the loser having their division lead reduced (or in Huston's case, potentially puts them in a tie for first place). The one aspect I am interested to see play out is if JJ Watt and Clowney can just destroy the Redskins sad-sack OL.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tennessee Titans (5-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Not as interesting of positioning/elimination" Sunday, there's four games this week between two 4-or-5 wins teams. Each of them are in a case where the winner can re-establish themselves as playoff favorites, while the loser is in bad shape. These two sets are just the ones I don't see as being as interesting. I don't know if either the Cowboys or Falcons are a good team, and both have a tough shot anyway even for the winner. The Titans have the most to gain, being able to keep pace with the Texans. Or maybe the Colts, who could get back to .500, with a pretty manageable schedule ahead, have the most to gain.
5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (8-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Do the real Eagles stand up?" Sunday, as what in theory should have been a game between two heavyweights in the NFC has lost all its luster by the Eagles continued sleepwalk through 2018. The Eagles, despite their injuries, are too talented to be 4-5 with 4-6 staring them in the face. I still believe in this team long-term, and seemingly more talented Super Bowl participants have had similarly 'year from hell' years (just have to go back to two years ago with the 2016 Panthers going 6-10), but the Eagles were so well built last season. I have a feeling they give the Saints a competitive game, but I can also see Brees repeatedly attacking Rasul Butler over and over and over again. An Eagles loss, with road games still left against the Rams and Cowboys, basically eliminates them. If there was ever a week to get back on track with a statement, this is it.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-5) (TNF - FOX)
I call it "The more interesting positioning/elimination" Sunday, as these are the other two games between 4-or-5 win teams, which I do find as more interesting than the other ones. The Bengals vs. Ravens has lost so much luster since the last time these two teams met, both at 1-0 when the Steelers were 0-0-1. Anyway, if the Ravens win and end their losing streak, with a somewhat manageable schedule left, that puts them right back on track. I'm more interested in the NFC game. The loser between these two teams, a pair of teams that from 2012-2016 made the playoffs every single year. The loser is essentially done, missing the playoffs a second striaght year. The winner is probably also missing the playoffs (the Panthers and Bears/Vikings loser will still have a good chance making the playoffs over the winner of this game), but at least they can live to dream.
2.) Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) @ Chicago Bears (6-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Good vs. Good, but really damn meaningful" Sunday, as we get the NFC East Battle of Giants, Pt.1, two fun teams that can play defense, that have offenses that are highly variable, but if both good at the same time, are incredibly fun to watch. I can't wait to watch the Vikings reborn defense against Trubiusky at home. I can't wait to watch Adam Thelien again. This seriously is a fun game, and the winner will be in great position in the NFC North. To show how long we've come with the Bears, this is their first home SNF game in six years, so I expect a great Soldier Field crowd as well.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) @ St. Louis Rams (9-1) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Finally, we get the game we wnated since like Week 3" Monday, and in reality there's not much to say. The game should be great, whether in Mexico City, or, as seems to be becoming increasingly likely, back in LA beacuse of the bad turf. The Chiefs definitely seem stronger right now, but if the Rams can block the Chiefs front, they can easily keep pace. Should be a great game, one with big implications for the Rams, as a loss likely puts them one-game back of the Saints with the head-to-head loss. I seriously can't wait.
