NFL 2018: Week 13 Power Rankings & The Rest

My favorite week of the season (maybe) might be this week, because it is the first week since Week 3 where all 32 teams are playing, and every team has the same number of games played. It's a nice little re-set to the season.

Tier I - The "2019 isn't too far away" Quinto

32.) Arizona Cardinals  (2-9  =  155-295)

31.) Oakland Raiders  (2-9  =  187-327)

30.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-9  =  239-293)

29.) New York Jets  (3-8  =  221-281)

28.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (3-8  =  197-243)

With such a wide section of teams with 4-to-6 wins, there's not too much at the very bottom. These five have kind of separated themselves at the bottom. The Cardinals and Raiders are both dreadful, but in different ways. At least hte Raiders have a plan (tank), with the Cardinals, while I like Josh Rosen, the rest of the team needs a tear-down. The 49ers are stuck in the middle, as they really can't swing in any direction until next year with Garropollo. The Jets and Jaguars are also in need of teardowns, but at least one of them has a QB (though not really sure how good he will be). The Jaguars finally decided to sit Blake Bortles down. The Jaguars got a decent deal on Bortles, but even then it turned out so far worse than anyone could have imagined.

Tier II - The "Frustratingly Semi-Competent Losers" Duo

27.) New York Giants  (3-8  =  237-288) 

26.) Miami Dolphins  (5-6  =  223-283)

The Giants won two straight games, and were up 19-3 on their way to a third win. The Dolphins are still hanging around the wild card race, even after surviving five games with Brock Osweiler. Neither team is terrible based on point differntial, or personnel. They both can hang around games, but also probably lose most of those self-same games. The Giants are reportedly thinking about sitting Eli Manning, but for some unknown reason, not starting Kyle Laluetta. The Dolphins have to seriously start thinking about both Tannehill and Gase.

Tier III - The "We'll win or lose 10-45" Trio

25.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-6  =  276-347)

24.) Buffalo Bills  (4-7  =  161-272)

23) Detroit Lions  (4-7  =  238-286)

All three teams have enough talent to pull off wins - though in the Bills case, those wins will all come against the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have lost three straight games, and are just a disaster at some point, but it wouldn't shock me to have Dalton and Green, and a defense with far more talent than its results, pull together a few wins. The Lions are the strangest team, with convincing wins over the Patriots and Packers, and a good win over Carolina, but losses to all sorts of teams including those QBed by Chase Daniel. Finally, let's pour one out for the Bills, a team so bad many were thinking of 0-16 and drumming up the old "Can Alabama beat the worst NFL team" takes, and then won four (FOUR!!) games.  Sean McDermott honestly should be a Top-10 coach of the year. They'll probably be blown out a few more times, but sneak out a win or two and have the most surprising 6-10 season ever.

Tier IV - The "Weird way we look at the NFC South" Duo

22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (4-7  =  294-338)
21.) Atlanta Falcons  (4-7  =  280-307)

It's interesting that both these teams have the same record, and similar point differntials (admittedly, Atlanta's is better), but the way people talk about them is completely different. I've seen a lot of talk about Dirk Koetter's job, but very, very little about Dan Quinn's. I've seen so much hand-wringing about Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but at the end of the day, the Buccaneers have the saem record as Atlanta, a team that some thought of as a Super Bowl contender, or at the very least a team that could hang with New Orleans & Carolina. Of course, I'm part of the problem, as I'm quite sure teh Falcons will likely end up with a better record than the Buccaneers. DVOA has the Falcons as better as well, but that was through Week 11 (Week 12 results not loaded yet). That's a tough spot to be in, given what the expecations were.

Tier V - The "Probably just spoilers, but fun ones" Trio

20.) Cleveland Browns  (4-6-1  =  253-283)
19.) Tennessee Titans  (5-6  =  195-223)
18.) Green Bay Packers  (4-6-1  =  264-267)

In the FOX/CBS/NBC graphics that will be displayed in coming weeks showing the AFC/NFC playoff pictures, these three teams will all be in that right-most 'In the Hunt' column. That said, they all have quite small chances of making the playoffs. The Titans are just a game back, but don't have the tiebreaker against the Colts or Ravens, the two teams ahead of them, and despite the ass-kicking they gave New England, don't seem like a serious playoff threat. However, just like the 4-6-1 teams (and how scary is it that the Browns and Packers have the same record), they can scare teams. The Browns still have Pitsburgh, Baltimore and Carolina. The Packers still have Chicago. The Titans still have the Colts one more time. All three are good bets for 6-9-1, 7-9, 8-8, 7-8-1 or the like.

Tier VI - The "Is it too little too late" Uno

17.) Denver Broncos  (5-6  =  252-252)

Three weeks ago, the Broncos were ranked in the Top-10 of DVOA. Since then, they beat the Chargers and Steelers, teams that by record were quite a bit better than them, and by DVOA better (LAC) or about as good (PIT). Now, the DVOA ranking doesn’t seem like a fluke. When we remember this is 2018 where the average team completes 65% of their passes, the Broncos defense is among the league’s five best. The offense has cut turnovers. They have an outside shot of that 6^th seed, and their schedule is fairly navigable. Three of the next four are on the road, but they are against Cincinnati, San Francisco and Cleveland. The Week 17 game against the Chargers looms large. There is a chance, but they have to cross two teams (one of whom beat them head-to-head).

Tier VII - The "(Not) Great NFC East Race" Trio

16.) Washington Redskins  (6-5  =  220-229)

15.) Philadelphia Eagles  (5-6  =  230-253)

14.) Dallas Cowboys  (6-5  =  234-213)

Man, is the NFC East a wasteland. The best team seemingly is the Cowboys. That defense is among the league’s best, though surprisingly DVOA only has them 13^th. The Eagles are still to me the most talented, but their inability to score points reminds me of my issues with the Romo-era Cowboys. The Redskins honestly should be ranked lower. A Colt McCoy led team is not winning the nine games needed. Eagles @ Cowboys will likely decide this division, which is a ridiculous thing to say when the Eagles were down 3-19, staring 4-7 in the face. It’s not all solved, and we have to start at least questioning if Frank Reich and John DeFilippo were more important to 2017 than we initially though.

Tier VIII - The "Three Teams Enter, Two Leave" Trio

13.) Minnesota Vikings  (6-4-1  =  265-246)

12.) Carolina Panthers  (6-5  =  287-282)

11.) Seattle Seahawks  (6-5  =  276-243)

The Panthers shouldn’t be in this situation. They should have beaten the Lions if not for Graham Gano. They beat the Seahawks if not for Graham Gano and some bad red zone play. In reality, they should be 8-3 right now, even if their point differential wouldn’t be nearly that good. Now, they need help. A big dose of help will come in a couple weeks, when the Vikings and Seahawks play. The winner of that game probably gets one of the two spots. The Vikings also shouldn’t be in this situation, much more talented than their record. The defense is starting to play better, but navigating the upcoming schedule without Xavier Rhodes will be a challenge. The Seahawks are really impressive; their talent level is not Wild Card good, and while they easily could have lost the last two games, their point differential and overall performance has been strong. Even when their newfound run game was stunted against Carolina, they were able to consistently move the ball.

Tier IX - The "Two Teams Enter, One Leaves" Uno

10.) Indianapolis Colts  (6-5  =  325-273)

9.) Baltimore Ravens  (6-5  =  271-198)

The AFC has a simpler gauntlet scenario (pending the Broncos making a run). The Colts and Ravens are both good, by point differential should probably each be at least 7-4. DVOA has the Ravens better, but not significantly so. The Colts offense is quietly one of the league’s 10 best. The Ravens defense is quietly the league’s 2^nd best. The Ravens have a tougher schedule, road games against the Chiefs still to play. The Colts have easier teams, but all three road divisional games left. I really don’t know which way to lean. The Colts also have a non-zero chance at the division if the Texans slip, which I guess the Ravens still do as well. In the end, I lean slightly towards the Colts. The Lamar Jackson offense worked against two of the worst defences in the NFL, but better teams, like the ones on their schedule, should handle it better.

Tier X - The "Boring AFC Division Winners" Trio

8.) New England Patriots  (8-3  =  307-249)

7.) Houston Texans  (8-3  =  273-222)

6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-3-1  =  316-249)

Any of these three teams could make the Super Bowl – yes including Houston, though DVOA isn’t so high on them. Yes, I am somewhat of a Patriots hater, but I do think there are rational arguments they are the worst of the three, though if they played either in the playoffs I would pick the Pats. Brady is still not right – case in point the Pats running three times and punting from the 2-yard line after the 2:00 warning in the first half. Old Brady throws at least once on that series. The defense is giving up more points than almost any previous incarnation. They are 2-3 on the road, including 1-3 against bad teams. The Texans honestly could end up the best team as their OL has started to play better. The defense has more game-changers, which matters more in their defense depressed world. The Steelers are likely going to blow their chance at a 1^st round bye unless they manage to beat New England for once. That loss was harrowing, if totally self-inflicted. To be fair, 1-1 over the last two games is the result they deserve.

Tier XI - The "Can They win playing 2012 football" Duo

5.) Chicago Bears  (8-3  =  317-211)

4.) Los Angeles Chargers  (8-3  =  307-219)

The title is being a bit unfair to the Chargers, but their offense is more 2012 set than the high-flying, motion stuff that the best 2018 teams have been running. The Bears are essentially copying their old playbook of great defense and high-variance offense to a tee. They are a very good team, now winning with backup QBs. It will all come down to whether their defense can hold up against the Rams or Saints – we’ll get a preview in a couple of weeks, though that will be in Chicago. The Chargers still have a shot at the division, but likely they’ll be on the Wild Card route. They’ve dominated road games so far. Joey Bosa getting back and increasingly healthy completes that team to the level they may be one of the most dangerous wild card teams in recent memory. We haven’t had a 12-win Wild Card team since 2013, we are due (I’m not counting the 2016 Raiders, which I don’t think actually happened).

Tier XII - The "Just play the NFC Championship Game & Super Bowl Now" Trio

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-2  =  404-294)

2.) Los Angeles Rams  (10-1  =  389-282)

1.) New Orleans Saints  (10-1  =  409-256)

If the Super Bowl isn’t Chiefs vs. Rams/Saints, I’ll both be disappointed, and furiously angry, as it means the Patriots probably made it. Chiefs vs. Rams, or Chiefs vs. Saints would both be great games. And I’m all for Rams vs. Saints, part 2, a game in which self-inflicted wounds cost the Rams early and forced them to play catch-up – which they did fairly well. This is the year of offense, it is only fair the best offenses duke it out.

Projecting the Playoffs:

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-3

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-4-1

3.) New England Patriots  =  11-5

4.) Houston Texans  =  11-5

5.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  12-4

6.) Indianapolis Colts  =  10-6

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints  =  14-2

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  14-2

3.) Chicago Bears  =  12-4

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-6

5.) Minnesota Vikings  =  10-5-1

6.) Seattle Seahawks  =  10-6

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Buffalo Bills (4-7)  @  Miami Dolphins (5-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) New York Jets (3-8)  @  Tennessee Titans (5-6)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday,

14.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (2-9)  (4:05 - CBS)

13.) Arizona Cardinals (2-9)  @  Green Bay Packers (4-6-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) San Francisco 49ers (2-9)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-5)  (4:25 - FOX)

11.) Chicago Bears (8-3)  @  New York Giants (3-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

10.) Cleveland Browns (4-6-1)  @  Houston Texans (8-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

9.) Los Angeles Rams (10-1)  @  Detroit Lions (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Good vs. Bad" Sunday

8.) Denver Broncos (5-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Loser is Gone" Sunday

7.) Baltimore Ravens (6-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

6.) Carolina Panthers (6-5)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Try to avoid being spoiled" Sunday

4.) Washington Redskins (6-5)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Yet another NFC East Game" Monday,

3.) Los Angeles Chargers (8-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Two good teams, but probably meaningless" Sunday,

2.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1)  @  New England Patriots (8-3)  (4:25 - FOX)

1.) New Orleans Saints (10-1)  @ Dallas Cowboys (6-5)  (TNF - FOX)

I call it "Good teams, Good Games" Thursday and Sunday, 

Why I Loved Last Night's Game, Pt. 2

Two years ago, the Cardinals tied the Seahawks 6-6 in a memorable (if for the wrong reasons) game. I wrote then that I loved the game, the best version of defensive football we could get in 2016 NFL.

Two years later, despite 2017 being what is a sseming bizarre aberration, offenses have taken over even more. I am a defense fan at heart. That all said, I loved every second of yesterday's epic 54-51 win by the Rams over the Chiefs.

By the way, this doesn't mean I've come around to the offensive explosion. I hate the fact there are like twelve QBs with a passer rating above 100, including five above 110. I hate that the average QB has a passer rating of 95 this season. I hate that scoring is at an all-time high. I hate all of it. I hated the Bucs 48-40 Week 1 win over the Saints, where open receivers ran left and right for sixty minutes.

Yesterday wasn't that though. Just as the Seahawks and Cardinals defenses took it on themselves to outplay each other in 2016, so did these offenses. The defenses were not good, but they weren't horrible either. It was brilliant scheming by McVay and Reid, mixed with brilliant talent. It was 21 points on defensive scores. I can't believe I saw a game that was 54-51, but also included eight sacks and seven turnovers.

Only one TD was due to an out-and-out defensive embarrassment, the long TD to Tyreek Hill when the Rams safety slipped. The others were good scheme or great throws. The Chiefs were amazing, cominb back from 13-0 down and 40-30 down. The Rams were as good, not turning it over as much, Jared Goff staring down good pass rush to hit tight windows a few times.

The postgame twitter-verse was very split on this game - just like it was on the 6-6 game. The people I follow the most loved the game. I did too. I just also loved the 6-6 game two years ago.

My least favorite part of the NFL explosion is it turning into the NCAA, with gimmick offenses and games that end 48-38 taking four hours. Some of that is happening, but that wasn't yesterday. The Rams run 3-1-1 personnel 95% of the time. They are a traditional offense that is schemed and executed to perfection - much like hte great offenses of years past. Same with teh Saints, aside from the stupid Taysom Hill stuff. It's not just all college trickery.

Everyone wanted that type of game yesterday, but even for defense fans, that was the best version of a 54-51 game. Aaron Donald was unblockable. Samson Ekubam had two defensive TDs. Chris Jones was great. The Rams secondary made a few plays late. There were six punts even, in a game that was 54-51!

That game exceeded all expecatations of what a shootout is. The last time I remember being somewhat speechless after a game, with a 'what did I just watch' smile plastered to my face, was the 4th and 2 game in 2009. This obviously didn't have the politics, let's say, of Brady vs. Manning, but was so, so, so good.

I hope these two play again in teh Super Bowl. I'm sure Saints vs. Chiefs could be as good, but I love the fresh blood of the Rams and Chiefs. I want this to be the Super Bowl, even if it won't end 54-51 again. Though it just might.

NFL 2018: Week 12 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "2019 is not too Far Away" Trio

32.) Arizona Cardinals  (2-8  =  145-248)

31.) Oakland Raiders  (2-8  =  170-293)

30.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-8  =  230-266)

Tier II - The "Spoiler-y Spoilers" Quadro

29.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (3-7  =  267-329)

28.) Buffalo Bills  (3-7  =  137-251)

27.) New York Jets  (3-7  =  208-254)

26.) New York Giants  (3-7  =  215-263)

Tier III - The "Mish-mash of AFC Mediocreness" Quadro

25.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (3-7  =  176-219)

24.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-5  =  256-312)

23.) Miami Dolphins  (5-5  =  199-256)

22.) Cleveland Browns  (3-6-1  =  218-263)

Tier IV - The "Better Mish-mash of NFC Mediocreness" Quadro

21.) Atlanta Falcons  (4-6  =  263-276)

20.) Detroit Lions  (4-6  =  222-263)

19.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-6  =  205-231)

18.) Washington Redskins  (6-4  =  197-198)

Tier V - The "Too little, too late?" Trio

17.) Tennessee Titans  (5-5  =  178-189)

16.) Green Bay Packers  (4-5-1  =  247-243)

15.) Denver Broncos  (4-6  =  228-235)

Tier VI - The "NFC Wild, Wild, Wild Cards" Trio

14.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-5  =  203-190)

13.) Minnesota Vikings  (5-4-1  =  241-229)

12.) Seattle Seahawks  (5-5  =  246-216)

Tier VII - The "Coming On Strong Contender" Uno

11.) Indianapolis Colts  (5-5  =  298-249)

Tier VIII - The "Slipping Away?" Duo

10.) Carolina Panthers  (6-4  =  260-252)

9.) Baltimore Ravens  (5-5  =  237-181)

Tier IX - The "AFC Contenders, but not the real One" Quadro

8.) New England Patriots  (7-3  =  280-236)

7.) Houston Texans  (7-3  =  239-205)

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  (7-3  =  262-209)

5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-2-1  =  299-225)

Tier X - The "Should we take them seriously now?" Uno

4.) Chicago Bears  (7-3  =  294-195)

Tier XI - The "Well, That was Fun" Duo

3.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-2  =  404-294)

2.) Los Angeles Rams  (10-1  =  389-282)

Tier XII - The "Undisputed Favorite Now" Uno

1.) New Orleans Saints  (9-1  =  378-239)

Playoff Projections

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  (13-3)

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-4-1)

3.) New England Patriots  (11-5)

4.) Houston Texans  (10-6)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers  (11-5)

6.) Baltimore Ravens  (10-6)

NFC

1.) New Orleans Saints  (14-2)

2.) Los Angeles Rams  (13-3)

3.) Chicago Bears  (11-5) 

4.) Dallas Cowboys  (9-7)

5.) Carolina Panthers  (10-6)

6.) Minnesota Vikings  (9-6-1)

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games 

Byes: Kansas City Chiefs (9-2), Los Angeles Rams (10-1)

15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)  @  Buffalo Bills (3-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

14.) San Francisco 49ers (2-8)  @  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

13.) Cleveland Browns (3-6-1)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

12.) New York Giants (3-7)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)  (1:00 - FOX) 

11.) Oakland Raiders (2-8)  @  Baltimore Ravens (5-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

10.) Chicago Bears (7-3)  @  Detroit Lions (4-6)  (THX - CBS)

9.) New England Patriots (7-3)  @  New York Jets (3-7)  (1:00 - CBS)

8.) Arizona Cardinals (2-8)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)  (4:05 - FOX)

7.) Atlanta Falcons (4-6)  @  New Orleans Saints (9-1)  (THX - NBC)

6.) Washington Redskins (6-4)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-5)  (THX - FOX)

5.) Tennessee Titans (5-5)  @  Houston Texans (7-3)  (MNF - ESPN)

4.) Seattle Seahawks (5-5)  @  Carolina Panthers (6-4)  (1:00 - FOX)

3.) Miami Dolphins (5-5)  @  Indianapolis Colts (5-5)  (4:25 - CBS)

2.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2-1)  @  Denver Broncos (4-6)  (4:25 - CBS)

1.) Green Bay Packers (4-5-1)  @  Minnesota Vikings (5-4-1)  (SNF - NBC)

NFL 2018: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The '2019 is not So Far Away' Quinto

32.) Oakland Raiders  (1-8  =  147-272)
31.) Arizona Cardinals  (2-7  =  124-225)
30.) New York Jets  (3-7  =  208-254)
29.) San Francisco 49ers  (2-8  =  230-266)
28.) New York Giants  (2-7  =  177-228)

These bottom five have really separated themselves from the pack in terms of awfulness - with maybe a slight exception with the 49ers, who have a decent point differential of a better team, but are hard to take seroiusly starting Nick Mullens. The Raiders are absolutely as bad as everyone thought they were, but at least they are basically openly tanking at this point, shedding players left and right. The Cardinals defense is still interesting, but this is essentially a lost year. Starting to say the same about the Jets; I thought Todd Bowles did a good job with an impossible situation in 2016-17, but this year has been dreadful basically since Week 1 ended. The 49ers and Giants are about the same, teams with good talent on defense that shows up every three games or so, and a QB holding back an offensive that should be better due to its scheme (49ers) or roster talent (Giants). Both teams could be surprise contenders next year if Garropollo comes back healthy, and if the Giants cut the cord with Eli.


Tier II - The 'Potentially Dangerous Spoilers' Quadro

27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (3-6  =  232-291)
26.) Buffalo Bills  (3-7  =  137-251)
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (3-6  =  160-199)
24.) Detroit Lions  (3-6  =  202-244)

These four teams are all bad. None of them have any shot of the playoffs barring a six or seven game win streak (not happening). But all four can scare teams a bit more legitimately and more commonly than the bottom five. The Buccaneers can easily move the ball, and if they don't screw up in the red zone in myriad ways, they can fight teams. The Bills are strange having two absolute beat-downs on the road no less, and their defense is good enough to harrass teams. The Jaguars are still talented enough to maybe pull out another 2-3 wins, and still have the ability to make a big impact in the AFC South race. It is sad, though, to see how far they've fallen after the 3-1 start, and it happening to their defense at this point more-so than the offense. The Lions finally have a high peak (easily beating the Packers and Patriots), but are terrible on the road, and their defense falls apart if they don't get a pass rush. Again, all four will win a surprisiing game or two and ruin team's playoff chances, but I can't see them doing any more than just that.


Tier III - The 'Mediocre AFC Ships Passing in the Night' Trio

23.) Miami Dolphins  (5-5  =  199-256)
22.) Cincinnati Bengals  (5-4  =  235-288)
21.) Cleveland Browns  (3-6-1  =  218-263)

The Dolphins started 3-0. The Bengals started 4-1. Both teams are slipping fast in a tight middle of the AFC. The Bengals are technically better, but their problems seem less fixable, mostly being a defense that has completely collapsed, giving up 500+ yards three straight games. The Dolphins are being hampered by having to play Osweiler, but their offense is just so consistenly uninspired, working on a scheme that is behind a lot of the NFL in terms of innovation. The Browns are not making the playoffs for sure, but they might be more competitive the rest of hte year. I wans't as anti-Hue as most, but if I'm wrong, replacing Jackson (and more than that, any Jackson v. Haley bull-headedness) may have a truly positive effect. Mayfield still looks good, for one, and it was nice to watch Nick Chubb start to chug along.


Tier IV - The 'Definitely Dangerous Spoilers' Duo

20.) Atlanta Falcons  (4-5  =  244-254)
19.) Denver Broncos  (3-6  =  205-213)

The Falcons, despite their face-plant against Cleveland, have enough offense talent & consistency on that side of the ball (again, removing the last game) to truly scare some teams down the stretch, including having games against the Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Ravens, and Packers left. That is a lot of games aginst teams either in the playoffs or fighting for spots. The Broncos are even further away from playoff contention, probably needing a 6-1 finish to even challenge, but if nayhting, they are a better team than Atlanta, with a slightly better point differential, and having played some tough games against good teams (see losses to KC and the Rams).


Tier V - The 'Sadly less than bright NFC Lights' Trio

18.) Dallas Cowboys  (4-5  =  181-171)
17.) Green Bay Packers  (4-4-1  =  223-216)
16.) Philadelphia Eagles  (4-5  =  198-183)

Oh, FOX (and NBC probably) is so sad right now that it is very likely none of these three teams are making the playoffs as of now, and need a big 6-1 type run to get there. The Cowboys to me are still the weakest of the three teams, as I don't buy that offense with continued issues and injuries at OL, an Dak's inconsistent play. The Packers still have Rodgers, but even he has dropped his level of play. Aaron Jones is a nice piece, but turning to miracle-worker running backs is an extreme measure. The Eagles still have the most talent, still have the offense that could get incredibly hot as they integrate Golden Tate in, but the injuries are starting to pile up, and worse for them, the number of teams ahead of them are increasing.


Tier VI - The 'Competent But Different' Duo

15.) Indianapolis Colts  (4-5  =  260-239)
14.) Washington Redskins  (6-3  =  176-175)

These two teams are diametrically opposite, the Colts an offense-first team whose defense is terribly inconsistent. The Redskins are the reverse, with a top-5 defense in 2018 terms, and a QB who has thrown for precisely 178 yards in three of the past four games. The Colts did smack the Redskins around in Week 2, a game that continued the weirdest stat of the year, that the Redskins have yet to experience a lead change in any of their games. The Redskins are being buried by injuries, but they have a style of playing that will keep them in most games. Their defense is still healthy, and performing at a baseline good level. The Colts are basically all about the offense at this point, but with a healthy, strong OL, we see just how good Andrew Luck can be. What he needs is for TY Hilton to return to 2013-2015 form.


Tier VII - The '2008 Offense in 2018' Duo

13.) Seattle Seahawks  (4-5  =  219-192)
12.) Tennessee Titans  (5-4  =  168-151)

The Seahawks and Titans are similar teams, both defense first, with an offense that will mix heavy running with a QB scrambling around and looking less god than he actually is. The Seahawks are surprisingly good at defense given their personnel losses, and have the best OL in years. They've just been plain bad in close games, that team easily should be 5-4 or 6-3 right now with better luck. The Titans have the league's best scoring defense, and have only gotten stronger. Mariota has looked good the last two weeks, finally setting in to the new offense he's been put in. The OL got significant push on the Patriots, controlling the line easily. That was an impressive back-to-back games for them. The Seahawks too had good performances the last two weeks against top teams (7-2 Chargers, 9-1 Rams), but unlike Tennessee, they lost both.


Tier VIII - The '2008 Everything in 2018' Duo

11.) Houston Texans  (6-3  =  216-184)
10.) Baltimore Ravenns (4-5  =  213-160)

The Texans are sneakily 6-3 right now, and while they still have the air of Bill O'Brien's continued presence, If they had a better coach, they honestly could be the best team in the AFC as soon as next year - better coach and healthier OL. That's really all they need. The Ravens ironically have the coach, they've just been unlucky. Not unlucky in their last two losses, but had they just held on against the Saints, a loss that if anything looks more impressive by the week, and sitting at 5-4 with the rest of the AFC falling around them, the story would be a lot different. I hope John Harbaugh doesn't lose his job, but if he does, I'll be very excited to see where he ends up - maybe Houston?


Tier IX - The "Maybe the league is too different" Trio

9.) Minnesota Vikings  (5-3-1  =  221-204)
8.) Carolina Panthers  (6-3  =  241-232)
7.) New England Patriots  (7-3  =  280-236)

All these three teams are good. If any of these three end up winning the Super Bowl, I won't be shocked, just mildly surprised. But all three seem a bit off, whether it is running conventional offenses (Minnesota - relying so much on the brilliance of their two WRs), having a defense that is too old to still have the same impact (Carolina), or a team that is just not as good as they used to be (New England). The two most surprising ones to me are Carolina and New England. For the Panthers, it may be a case where they just ran into a buzzsaw against Pittsburgh, and that happens, but the continued inability of the defense to make red zone stops is surprising. That should improve - usually red zone defense regresses towards the mean, and the Panthers are historically bad at that. For the Patriots, this is the third time they've gone on the road and been basically uncompetitive from beginning to end. The Titans game was a worse version of the Jags lose, and both were more extreme than the Lions game. The Patriots still have a clear shot at a first-round bye, but there is a chance now they may be playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time in nine years. The last time they were not in position for at least the #2 seed this late into the season was in 2012, when they stole it from teh collapsing Texans in Week 17.


Tier X - The 'Hard to Truly Believe Giants" Duo

6.) Chicago Bears  (6-3  =  269-175)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (5-2-1  =  279-209)

At some point, despite how meh Trubisky looks 40% o the time, it matters that the Bears keep blowing teams out. Their point differential is that of an elite team. Their play is that of an elite team. The defense, when it has a healthy Khalil Mack, is one of the best in the NFL - in reality, they may have the best defense in the NFL at least per DVOA. The Bears are a really good team, even if it took a while to gain trust, and even though I would still really like Trubisky to be better. The Steelers are similar in a way, given how they sleepwalked through the beginning of the season. Those Steelers were real. But so are the Steelers that went to Baltimore and fairly easily beat the Ravens and then smashed a good Panthers team. Roethlisberger looks good, the defense has improved their pass rush. While I think they still have significant issues in the back-seven, the pass rush has been able to paper over those issues. They have the inside track to a number two seed now, and they would do well to hold onto that, given how bad they'll be an a potential playoff game in New England.


Tier XI - The "Does LA Realize How Good Their Teams Are" Duo

4.) Los Angeles Chargers  (7-2  =  240-186)
3.) Los Angeles Rams  (9-1  =  335-231)

Look, I realize the LA area is going through a lot right now, but hopefully, just like the Yankees after 9/11, or the Red Sox after the marathon bombing, or the Astros after Hurricane Maria, the LA fans can take some joy out of having two great teams. The Chargers are really good. Their two losses are to the Chiefs and Rams. The defense is good and Joey Bosa should have a big impact later on. Rivers has been quietly great (9.0 y/a, 115.4 passer rating great). The Rams, of course we all know about. They've had some close calls recently, but the one constant is the offense is just great. It will be interesting to see if they adjust their almost exclusive use of 3WR/1TE personnel with Cooper Kupp likely gone for the season. The defense also needs to improve, and it is more than just losing Aqib Talib.


Tier XII - The "New Super Bowl We All Deserve" Duo

2.) New Orleans Saints  (8-1  =  330-232)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs  (9-1  =  353-240)

The Saints have now leapfrogged the Rams for me, though I do think if their head-to-head game was in LA instead of New Orleans, we may be signing a different tune. Anyway, these two teams are both on pace for 550+ points, the Saints on pace to score as much as the 2007 Patriots, and go into 2nd place all-time. At some point, the Saints offense will have a game where Brees doesn't complete 70% of his passes, or the defense is just too bad, but it might not happen until the Super Bowl and that team doing it to them is the Chiefs. I still think the Chiefs, whose defensive improvements seem more sustainable based on personnel than the Saints, are the league's best team. Either way, we saw a Super Bowl last year that had more yards than any game ever (yes, that happened), and if these two make the Super Bowl, it may just beat that one.


Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  (13-3)
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (11-4-1)
3.) New England Patriots  (11-5)
4.) Houston Texans  (10-6)
5.) Los Angeles Chargers  (12-4)
6.) Baltimore Ravens  (9-7)


NFC

1.) Los Angeles Rams  (14-2)
2.) New Orleans Saints  (3-3)
3.) Minnesota Vikings  (10-5-1)
4.) Washington Redskins  (10-6)
5.) Carolina Panthers  (11-5)
6.) Chicago Bears  (10-6)


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), Buffalo Bills (3-7), New York Jets (3-7), San Francisco 49ers (2-8), Miami Dolphins (5-5), New England Patriots (7-3)

**Couple notes on the byes, first, nice to have mostly all bad teams on a bye, makes the slate of games stronger than usual; and second, I don't think I've ever seen a full division get a bye at the same time - honestly, the NFL should just have eight weeks with byes, and have a division take the bye all at the same time**


13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)  @  New York Giants (2-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (1-8)  @  Arizona Cardinals (2-7)  (4:05 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday,  as we have two games that feature bad teams playing each other. At this point in the season, it is easy to identify the worst games by using that handy guidance. Luckily, since four bad teams (and a very unenjoyable fifth one in the Dolphins) are on a bye this week, there's only two of these games. Little to say about either one.


11.) Denver Broncos (3-6)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)  (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Carolina Panthers (6-3)  @  Detroit Lions (3-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Bad vs. Good' Sunday, as in reality, this is the grouping that is most winnowed by having so many bad teams on a bye. The only interesting thing about these games normally is seeing if any of the bad teams can play spoiler. To me, the most likely one of the three is Jacksonville waking up by having a triggering memory of what it was like to play a good team in their hey-day, being a rematch against the Steelers from last year's playoff game. The Panthers need this win but their road performances so far have been a bit worrying. Finally, the Chargers are in great position even if they lose this game.


8.) Houston Texans (6-3)  @  Washington Redskins (6-3)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Good vs. Good, but not that meaningful" Sunday, as we get a game between two first place teams, but there's not that much exciting about it. The excitement from this game is more forward looking in terms of the loser having their division lead reduced (or in Huston's case, potentially puts them in a tie for first place). The one aspect I am interested to see play out is if JJ Watt and Clowney can just destroy the Redskins sad-sack OL.


7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5)  @  Atlanta Falcons (4-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tennessee Titans (5-4)  @  Indianapolis Colts (4-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "Not as interesting of positioning/elimination" Sunday, there's four games this week between two 4-or-5 wins teams. Each of them are in a case where the winner can re-establish themselves as playoff favorites, while the loser is in bad shape. These two sets are just the ones I don't see as being as interesting. I don't know if either the Cowboys or Falcons are a good team, and both have a tough shot anyway even for the winner. The Titans have the most to gain, being able to keep pace with the Texans. Or maybe the Colts, who could get back to .500, with a pretty manageable schedule ahead, have the most to gain.


5.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)  @  New Orleans Saints (8-1)  (4:25 - FOX)

I call it "Do the real Eagles stand up?" Sunday, as what in theory should have been a game between two heavyweights in the NFC has lost all its luster by the Eagles continued sleepwalk through 2018. The Eagles, despite their injuries, are too talented to be 4-5 with 4-6 staring them in the face. I still believe in this team long-term, and seemingly more talented Super Bowl participants have had similarly 'year from hell' years (just have to go back to two years ago with the 2016 Panthers going 6-10), but the Eagles were so well built last season. I have a feeling they give the Saints a competitive game, but I can also see Brees repeatedly attacking Rasul Butler over and over and over again. An Eagles loss, with road games still left against the Rams and Cowboys, basically eliminates them. If there was ever a week to get back on track with a statement, this is it.


4.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (4-5)  (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Green Bay Packers (4-4-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (4-5)  (TNF - FOX)

I call it "The more interesting positioning/elimination" Sunday, as these are the other two games between 4-or-5 win teams, which I do find as more interesting than the other ones. The Bengals vs. Ravens has lost so much luster since the last time these two teams met, both at 1-0 when the Steelers were 0-0-1. Anyway, if the Ravens win and end their losing streak, with a somewhat manageable schedule left, that puts them right back on track. I'm more interested in the NFC game. The loser between these two teams, a pair of teams that from 2012-2016 made the playoffs every single year. The loser is essentially done, missing the playoffs a second striaght year. The winner is probably also missing the playoffs (the Panthers and Bears/Vikings loser will still have a good chance making the playoffs over the winner of this game), but at least they can live to dream.


2.) Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1)  @  Chicago Bears (6-3)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "Good vs. Good, but really damn meaningful" Sunday, as we get the NFC East Battle of Giants, Pt.1, two fun teams that can play defense, that have offenses that are highly variable, but if both good at the same time, are incredibly fun to watch. I can't wait to watch the Vikings reborn defense against Trubiusky at home. I can't wait to watch Adam Thelien again. This seriously is a fun game, and the winner will be in great position in the NFC North. To show how long we've come with the Bears, this is their first home SNF game in six years, so I expect a great Soldier Field crowd as well.


1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)  @  St. Louis Rams (9-1)  (MNF - ESPN)

I call it "Finally, we get the game we wnated since like Week 3" Monday, and in reality there's not much to say. The game should be great, whether in Mexico City, or, as seems to be becoming increasingly likely, back in LA beacuse of the bad turf. The Chiefs definitely seem stronger right now, but if the Rams can block the Chiefs front, they can easily keep pace. Should be a great game, one with big implications for the Rams, as a loss likely puts them one-game back of the Saints with the head-to-head loss. I seriously can't wait.