Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The Slow Rise of the Next Gen

Rafael Nadal won his 33rd ATP Masters 1000 tournament - these are a set of nine tournaments that rank right behind the Grand Slams in tennis' hierarchy. Nadal has no equal on that accomplishment - Novak Djokovic is 2nd with 30 (Federer is 3rd with 27 - it is truly astounding how lucky tennis fans have been the last 15 years). This is no surprise, given that Nadal is the #1 player in the world. But what is surprising is that he did this fairly easily at 32, and is well on his way for being year-end #1 two straight years for the first time. To many, this is another piece of evidence showing not only how good Nadal, Federer and Djokovic have been, but how relatively poor the next set of stars are. But before we go too far into that conclusion, we just have to see the man that was on the other side of the net, Stefanos Tritsipas, a 19-year Greek wunderkind who is now ranked #15.

Look, it is impossible to argue that the unending success of the Big-3/4 has seriously hampered 2-3 generations of tennis players. There's the Roddick/Hewitt/Safin era that Federer tossed aside. There's the Berdych/Tsonga/Wawrinka/Ferrer era that was quite good, but never good enough (Wawrinka aside). Then there was the Dimitrov/Tomic/Raonic group, the forgotten generation, that never amounted to anything, most of them pushing late-20's now. The hope is the 'next gen', headlined by Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, two players already in the Top-10, and you can add Nick Kyrgios, Dennis Shapovalov and now Tsitsipas to the list.

None of them have truly made their mark yet. They've combined to make just two Grand Slam Semifinals (Thiem at the 2017-18 French), and just two more quarterfinals. But that group has done well at the Masters 1000 level for 1-2 years now. They aren't going away. Zverev has won three Masters 1000 titles. Thiem has won one. They've made other quarterfinals and semifinals and runners-up. They've done well in the best of three format, able to match up to the big-3 reasonably well, but that hasn't translated to the best of 5. Yet.

I think they are coming. There will be a day, inevitably, where the tennis world isn't dominated by Nadal or Djokovic or Federer. Maybe sooner rather than later. The players who are there to pick up the slack don't have the name recognition, but they seem to have the talent, advancing further up the rankings at an earlier age than the lost generation ever did.

We still don't know which of them will truly 'arrive' first. Thiem has come the closest, but so far his overall success is heavily weighted to the clay, which still seems to be Rafa's domain until he decides otherwise. Zverev has done the best at the Masters 1000 level, but has been truly inconsistent in slams, finally making a quarterfinal this year at the French, but needing to survive three different 5-setters to make it.

We aren't there yet, but we will likely end 2018 with two of the Next Gen in the Top 3 (Zverev has a chance at finishing #2), and potentially a third, with a few more in the Top 32. Tennis has been lucky to extend its most bountiful era in its history long past its normal expiration date, but for once the future beyond that era looks fairly strong as well.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.