They're bad, but on the
whole not as bad as normal
32.) Miami Dolphins
Honestly, I don't think there is a truly dreadful team this year.
Simple math would dictate that there will be some team to win 2 or 3 games. But
maybe no team goes worse than 4-12. Anyway, I don't get what is happening in
Miami. They've jettisoned so much talent from their 2016 playoff team - which
already wasn't too talented and not as good as their record. Most of it under
the auspices of improving the locker room, something I'm always skeptical of. I
don't think Adam Gase is a very good head coach. I don't trust Ryan Tannehill.
I think their o-line is a mess, and the defense is in its worst shape since the
early Philbin years. I just don't think there's too much to like about Miami.
31.) Denver Broncos
Again, they don’t seem that bad, but the Broncos have lost a ton
of talent since their 2015 Super Bowl team, and unless Bradley Chubb can be
Demarcus Ware 2.0, the defense seems quite fallow all of a sudden. The OL is no
better now than it used to be, and I really don’t think Case Keenum can match what
he did last year. Honestly, I think serious questions will start being asked
about John Elway – as they should be.
30.) Cleveland Browns
I’ll be surprised if they win fewer than three games – which isn’t
saying much, but when they’ve gone 4-44 over the last three years (maybe even
more depressing than either their 0-16 or 1-31). It will be interesting to see
when Baker Mayfield takes over from Tyrod Taylor. I like Mayfield, I think he
can be quite good in a few years. This year, though? Maybe not. If everyone
stays healthy, and the defense gels, they could get to 6-10 or so – but having
the defense gel is not something to rely on when Gregg Williams is keen to play
base defense 70% of the time.
29.) Chicago Bears
If Mitchell Trubisky improves, he and the team can fly up this
list, but that is sadly quite an if to me. I realize John Fox was running a
2003 offense, but I’m not going to just assume Matt Nagy is going to transform
him. The defense if it can stay healthy can be decent, but that may be where
losing Fox hurts honestly. The weapons are still average – it won’t help
Trubisky’s development too much that the running backs are by far the best unit
on offense.
28.) New York Jets
I really like Sam Darnold. I think the Jets found something here
in him, and I expect the Jets, as of right now, to be the next non-Patriots
team to win the AFC East. That still may be 2-3 years off. Their defense has
slipped, though I expect Bowles to coach them up fairly well. I don’t see any
great unit aside from the potential of a solid rookie campaign which will hurt,
but there’s also no clear weakness.
Just Stuck In Nowhere
27.) New York Giants
I still have no idea why the Giants picked Saquon Barkley. I have
no real opinions on Barkley the player – I assume he is very good. But how can
you do that in the deepest QB draft in years. How can you rely on Eli Manning,
a player who wasn’t even that good in the 11-5 season in 2016. He’s not good
enough to carry a bad team anymore. Sure, we can see some turnaround by the
defense, but I figure most of the players that were on that 2016 defense were
also on the 2017 defense and are now older.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is clearly influenced by Jameis being out three weeks, but
even with him, I’m not sure what the future holds for Tampa. This is Year #4
for Jameis. He’ll probably get at least a Year #5 before the Bucs think about
cutting him loose, but he seems to be no better than above average, and the
team is not able to coalesce around him. The good players (Evans, David, McCoy)
are mostly aging by this point. Also, there’s a bunch of teams now that have
younger QBs, and are timed to peak at a more optimal time than Tampa. Luckily
for the Bucs, they aren’t alone…
25.) Tennessee Titans
Most of what I wrote about Tampa is also true of Tennessee, the
team who drafted the guy right after Jameis in Marcus Mariota. Look, I think
Mariota is OK, but he was not that good in 2017 – worse than 2016 in the same
shit scheme. My pessimism is more that I have zero expectations for Mike Vrabel
the head coach. He seems someone who’s been rushed into that job without having
a long history to go off of. That said, that described Doug Pederson as well.
The Interesting Reclamations
24.) Buffalo Bills
I’ll give the Bills credit for sticking with the plan to draft a
QB when they finally made the playoffs. The 2017 Bills got massively lucky to
make the playoffs. They were not a good team. They did not have a long term
plan. I don’t know if Josh Allen is that long term option, but it has a better
chance than Tyrod Taylor. Plus, I do like Sean McDermott the coach; hopefully
he has the backing of ownership to go out and develop Allen and not make the
playoffs the next 2-3 years.
23.) Arizona Cardinals
Similar to the Bills, the Cardinals re-set a lot despite having a
competitive team. They were more forced into it with Arians’ and Palmer’s
retirements. I don’t know how I feel about Bradford as a stop-gap, but excited
to see what happens with Josh Rosen. I really wish Arians was still there – a
perfect coach for Rosen. I still like a lot of the team, but the overall
competency of the league, and the tough division, and the rookie QB, puts them
slightly down.
22.) San Francisco 49ers
I feel like I have to more defend why I have them so low.
Primarily it is because I’m not ready to crown Jimmy Garoppolo as the greatest
QB in the league. Garoppolo threw a lot of interceptable passes last season and
got fortunate. He had some good games, he had a good record. He’s not going
16-0 this season. The team’s talent is still limited. They’ll be better, but
against a tough schedule, in a tough division, I won’t be surprised if they go
a relatively disappointing 7-9.
21.) Kansas City Chiefs
I feel like the general consensus is that Mahomes is going to be
great, and that the Chiefs were 100% right to cast aside Alex Smith (following
a year he led the NFL in passer rating). Andy Reid is a brilliant coach. He may
well be right. He probably is right when you expand your assessment period
beyond just 2018. That said, we’ve been down this road with Reid before, when
they let McNabb go in 2010, replacing him with 2nd year 2nd round
pick Kevin Kolb. That was a disaster – luckily Mike Vick stepped in. There’s no
Mike Vick in Kansas City.
God Only Knows
20.) Oakland Raiders
If they actually trade Khalil Mack, or he holds out, fire them all
the way back to 27th. If he reports or they sign him, I truly have
no idea what the 2018 Raiders will be. I can’t imagine Gruden is actually dumb
enough to use a 1998 playbook in 2018. I think he can be good for Derek Carr,
who was still above average last season. This team is better than the 2017
version, though not as good as the 2016 teams’ record. If Mack plays, if they
go anywhere from 4-12 to 11-5, I wouldn’t be surprised.
19.) Detroit Lions
For some reason, I don’t have the usual scepticism on Patricia
that I normally have for ex-Belichick assistants as head coaches. I do think,
though, that we underrate the stability of the Jim Caldwell-era Lions. Stafford
is still a very good QB, but I don’t think the rest of the team is there to
push them back to the playoffs. There’s also going to be some adjustment period
here going from a plaid coach like Caldwell to whatever the hell Patricia is.
18.) Washington Redskins
God, it annoys me how competent each team feels. Ranking some of
these teams in the bottom half of the league was really tough. Specifically
here with Washington. I like the move for Alex Smith, seemingly a lower-ceiling
player than Kirk Cousins – but Alex Smith admittedly was a great QB last year.
I honestly think he can improve them. The rest of that team is patently
average. If they stay healthy, they can have a great season, but health is
impossible to predict, and a team with little depth is terrifying.
17.) Indianapolis Colts
This is purely based on faith in Andrew Luck and Frank Reich; and
TY Hilton; and the OL. The defense is trash. I’m still made they passed on
Bradley Chubb for Quentin Nelson – no matter how HOF-ready Nelson seems.
Highly Variable Fodder
16.) Seattle Seahawks
It’s hard to believe how different the 2018 Seahawks are from even
the 2017 Seahawks. The Legion of Boom is totally dead. The only remaining key
defender from their 2013-14 heyday is Bobby Wagner. It’s depressing really. I
hate the Seahawks for making me feel old. I feel like I grew up on the Legion
of Boom, and they’re gone entirely. Super Bowl XLVIII seems like it was
yesterday.
15.) Houston Texans
Even more than Deshaun Watson, getting JJ Watt back in my life is
what is making me probably overrate the Texans. Watt was so incomprehensibly
good from 2012-2015 it is hard to put into words or stats. His average year
from 2012-2015 included basically as many sacks and hurries as Aaron Donald’s
last two seasons (h/t to Bill Barnwell for that one). Watson is also a great
prospect, and the Texans have an incredibly high ceiling. That said, out of the
teams I’ve lumped together here, they probably have the lowest floor too
(putting aside the likelihood Luck gets hurt again).
14.) Cincinnati Bengals
Is it weird I’m kind of into the Bengals a good two years after
the Marvin Lewis era peaked. Can’t we just get excited for Year 16 of the
Marvin Experience! Honestly, I think the Bengals are fairly decent, a team with
no obvious holes in their roster. They have had a draft-and-develop program for
a numbers of years now, and whether it be William Jackson or John Ross, I like
the current set of players ready to take off.
13.) Baltimore Ravens
Is it weird I like the Ravens even more than the Bengals? Seriously.
That defense is still good. The alignment of weapons of Crabtree, Willie Snead
and John Brown seems better to me than it really should. That shouldn’t work,
but it does fit Flacco’s limited strengths. Flacco can ruin all of this, but
their defense and special teams was already good enough to win nine games and
come within a miracle of making the playoffs.
Intriguing Competency
12.) Dallas Cowboys
Going with my head, the Cowboys should be a really good team. They
were a well deserved 9-7 last year with multiple injuries, a drop-off in
Prescott’s play, and missing Zeke Elliott for six games (gong 2-4 in those
games). My worry though is that their OL is starting to show some cracks
(really sad what happened to Frederick) and the receivers are garbage. I am
starting to like their defense, which defines competency.
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars
It pains me they are stuck with Blake Bortles. I’ll say they gave
him a very fair contract, not overpaying for average play. Average Bortles
gives them enough at QB to make a good run again with a defense that looks to
be no worse than it was last year. It would be nice if Fournette plays like a
top pick, and Bortles show any level of consistency. Probably too much to ask
for, though.
A QB + A Little Goes A Long
Way
10.) Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were quietly a great defense last year, and shouldn’t
be any worse this year – though the preseason injury to Jason Verrett sucks.
Philip Rivers quietly had a great season last year. They should have been a
wild card team, if not outright AFC West winner. I really like the Chargers,
but they’ve already started having Chargers-esque things happen, like being bit
more by injuries this preseason this any other team.
9.) Green Bay Packers
There’s really no reason outside of Aaron Rodgers to like Green
Bay. Granted, that was true of the 2015-16 Packers, two 10-6 teams that made it
to the divisional round and title game. I have no idea how Jimmy Graham will
work out, but their receivers are fairly barren and new. The offense system has
been made obsolete almost. The defense will be without Dom Capers for the first
time in years. I have no idea if that is a good or bad thing, but in the end,
they have Aaron Rodgers, a happy, well-paid one.
8.) Carolina Panthers
There seems to be a consensus that the hiring of Norv Turner was
an insane decision. It may turn out that way. That said, I’m intrigued at a few
of the similarities between Carolina and Turner’s great San Diego offenses –
from having a star TE, to a RB who can catch passes, to a QB who likes to throw
deep. The biggest difference is the OL; but then again these Panthers have a
defense probably better than the 2007-2009 Chargers. For me, this has a chance
to go well, and even if the offense is no better than last year, this is still
a 11-5 team that beat Minnesota and New England in the regular season.
7.) Atlanta Falcons
I don’t know who the Falcons are. They are no worse on paper than
the team that made the Super Bowl. There’s reason to flitter away their drop of
200 points from 2016-17, be it growing pains with Steve Sarkisian, or just
natural regression from one of the great offenses ever. But 200 points is a
lot. I fear we make too little of that drop-off. The defense got better, but is
quite thin. The Falcons are a very, very good team, but you do start to worry
the closest they’ll get is 28-3.
All the Pieces Are There
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers
The 2017 Steelers may have been the most uninspiring 13-3 team
ever. IN reality, they were a bad call away from being a disappointing 14-2
team. I honestly don’t know if they’ll be better this year. Roethlisberger is
still great, but did at times get more pick-happy in 2017 than he had been the
previous three playoff years, honestly starting to remember his pre-Haley
wildness. The defense is good, but never replaced Shazier. The Steelers still
have loaded talent, but they seem to be stuck between better-than-their-record
11-5 or worse 13-3.
5.) New Orleans Saints
The 2017 Saints were so weird. They broke out of their 7-9
Fisher-esque slumber by having the greatest draft of all time. Now they’ll be
missing Mark Ingram and hoping Kamara has a historic season again.
4.) Los Angeles Rams
There’s a lot of questions around the Rams for me. The roster is
great, but aging at key positions, like their suddenly good OL. Can the trio of
imports in Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Ndamukong Suh play well (especially
Talib and Suh, who aren’t too young anymore). Finally, the big question comes
down to how sustainable Jared Goff’s suddenly great play is. Goff was excellent
in 2017, but so much of that seems to be specific spoonfeading from McVay – not
that this is going way though. The Rams are a great team, in a win-now period
that could get extended if Goff stays good and can pick up the slack when their
expensive old FAs have to leave. But that is still a few years away.
I'm So Sick Of Them
3.) New England Patriots
Just please go away. This team, even with Tom Brady, by talent
should not be nearly this good. But they will be.
NFC Title Rematch?
2.) Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins doesn’t have to do anything different than be a Kirk
Cousins-level player and the Vikings will be great, assuming reasonable health.
Now, they had more than reasonable health last year, particularly on defense,
but they’ve added nice depth (and Sheldon Richardson) to make their defense a
bit more impenetrable. Cousins with Diggs and Thelein should be a great match.
If their run-game can take a step up you have a truly great team. The defense
will fall off, be it 2019 or 2020 or 2021, but for 2018, they are set up so
well.
1.) Philadelphia Eagles
The Champs are always #1 for me. The Eagles, had Carson Wentz been
obviously healthy for Week 1, may have been my #1 even if I didn’t abide by the
‘Champs are #1’ rule. They are no worse than last year’s team that was good at
more or less everything. I like the buy-low Michael Bennett pickup. I like
Sidney Jones as a new slot-corner. Having Jeffery out for three weeks is tough,
but the rest of the players are still great. A healthy Wentz and they have a
reasonable chance at back-to-back.
