These past two years the NFL has been a struggle for me. Not because of the reasons that it has been a struggle for so many - whether it be the protests, or the CTE stories, or domestic violence. I admit those last two do of course make me like the sport a bit less, but I can overcome that. What I couldn't was the Patriots winning another Super Bowl - coming from a 28-3 deficit to top it off, nearly win another, and see the public blindly agree the GOAT QB debate as settled law with Brady on top. But strangely, despite Brady and the Pats still being very much great and a likely Super Bowl participant, I'm feeling more interested, more hungry for the NFL this year.
There's a few leading reasons in my mind for this sudden shift. First is the ccomeback of defenses in 2017 (and to a lesser extent 2016). Sure, the Super Bowl may have changed the way we perceived the 2017 season to be, as it was the game with more yards than any other ever. But in reality, 2017 was the most defense-heavy season since the 2011 lockout changed the way we look at statistics - the year Brees, Brady and Stafford all topped 5,000 yards, and three teams scored 500 points.
In 2010, the average points-per-game was 22.0 and yards-per-game was 336.0. In 2011, that went up to 22.2 and 346.8. It continued creeping up, especially in yards per game, and in 2015, it 22.8 ppg and 352.7 ypg. Both numbers fell in 2016, almost imperceptibly, but then fell big in 2017 - down to 21.7 ppg, and 334.1 ypg - numbers that were last seen in 2008. This wasn't seen as much on the extremes - there were no 2008 Steelers or even 2013 Seahawks like defenses, but mostly in the middle and top, there were no great offenses. Some of this is down to QBs missing games, but not all of it.
Passing stats also fell back to relatively normal levels. Tom Brady led the NFL in yards with 4,577, the lowest total for a league leader since Drew Brees in 2006 (4,418), and the first time no one crossed the 4,800 yard (300/game) mark since 2010. The 34 TDs that Russell Wilson threw were the lowest for a league leader since 2009. Alex Smith's 104.7 passer rating was the lowest league leading total since Peyton in 2006 (101.0). In all ways this was a serious re-set. And I loved it.
Defenses didn't dominate 2017, and they won't in 2018, but for the first time in a while, it felt like a fair fight. We got some really nice low-scoring games. We saw some great defensive performances. We saw loaded defenses in Jacksonville and Minnesota - who both look just as good this year. We saw four teams go 13-3, and only one was truly offense-heavy (New England), and two of the best teams were good on both ends (Philadelphia & Los Angeles). The league looks to be as balanced this year.
We saw team's not have to rely on throwing 45 times a game, or 300 yards a game, or anything else that felt more like Madden than real football. Sure, maybe the new tackling rules ruins all of this (I doubt, since at most it looks like it will impact on average 1-3 plays a game). On the whole, there is no reason to expect it to go away any time soon.
The second reason is the new crop of QBs is finally seeming strong enough to take over from the Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Roethlibserger/Rivers era of great QBs. Guys like Carson Wentz, and to a lesser extent Jared Goff, look worthy. No one is at that HOF level yet, but that was a truly steriod-era like confluence of brilliance - or for a more apt comparison, like the Big-4 in men's tennis. Players like Marcus Mariota, or the new rookies who all seem competent in their preseason debuts (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield). Then there's guys like Prescott and Carr and Watson and so many other intriguing young players.
I think this extends to a new era of coach as well, a turn back to the Walsh-ian tree after the Belichick & Parcells trees becoming stronger the preceding 5-10 years. Doug Pederson heads the list, but now we can see if the same happens with Matt Nagy in Chicago, or can conintue with McVay and Kyle Shanahan for their teams. For the first time in a while, I would say 75% of the league seems to have a very competent head coach.
The NFL is still polarized. It seems inevitable barring a Brady injury the Patriots will win 12+ games for the 9th straight year. It seems equally inevitable the Browns will continue to be bad. But in between there is so much to look forward to in 2018.
It's also getting to a point that my favorite years following the game are far enough away know that I've been forced to move on and look for what's next. My favorite season ever following the NFL is now 10 years old. Arguably my second favorite (2012) is six years old. Most teams have changed coaches or QBs or both. The few that have not have QBs in their late 30's if not 40's. Time moves on. So do my interests, and what I like to see in my football.
The league may not seem healthy, but to me, the games itself are as good as ever. The quality has reached a better equilibrium than three or four years ago. The QBs are all young and interesting. The coaching has gotten better. The sport is better, and even if we are starting the long, slow, death-march to a 6th Patriots Super Bowl, I'm OK being along to watch everything else during that ride.
There's a few leading reasons in my mind for this sudden shift. First is the ccomeback of defenses in 2017 (and to a lesser extent 2016). Sure, the Super Bowl may have changed the way we perceived the 2017 season to be, as it was the game with more yards than any other ever. But in reality, 2017 was the most defense-heavy season since the 2011 lockout changed the way we look at statistics - the year Brees, Brady and Stafford all topped 5,000 yards, and three teams scored 500 points.
In 2010, the average points-per-game was 22.0 and yards-per-game was 336.0. In 2011, that went up to 22.2 and 346.8. It continued creeping up, especially in yards per game, and in 2015, it 22.8 ppg and 352.7 ypg. Both numbers fell in 2016, almost imperceptibly, but then fell big in 2017 - down to 21.7 ppg, and 334.1 ypg - numbers that were last seen in 2008. This wasn't seen as much on the extremes - there were no 2008 Steelers or even 2013 Seahawks like defenses, but mostly in the middle and top, there were no great offenses. Some of this is down to QBs missing games, but not all of it.
Passing stats also fell back to relatively normal levels. Tom Brady led the NFL in yards with 4,577, the lowest total for a league leader since Drew Brees in 2006 (4,418), and the first time no one crossed the 4,800 yard (300/game) mark since 2010. The 34 TDs that Russell Wilson threw were the lowest for a league leader since 2009. Alex Smith's 104.7 passer rating was the lowest league leading total since Peyton in 2006 (101.0). In all ways this was a serious re-set. And I loved it.
Defenses didn't dominate 2017, and they won't in 2018, but for the first time in a while, it felt like a fair fight. We got some really nice low-scoring games. We saw some great defensive performances. We saw loaded defenses in Jacksonville and Minnesota - who both look just as good this year. We saw four teams go 13-3, and only one was truly offense-heavy (New England), and two of the best teams were good on both ends (Philadelphia & Los Angeles). The league looks to be as balanced this year.
We saw team's not have to rely on throwing 45 times a game, or 300 yards a game, or anything else that felt more like Madden than real football. Sure, maybe the new tackling rules ruins all of this (I doubt, since at most it looks like it will impact on average 1-3 plays a game). On the whole, there is no reason to expect it to go away any time soon.
The second reason is the new crop of QBs is finally seeming strong enough to take over from the Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Roethlibserger/Rivers era of great QBs. Guys like Carson Wentz, and to a lesser extent Jared Goff, look worthy. No one is at that HOF level yet, but that was a truly steriod-era like confluence of brilliance - or for a more apt comparison, like the Big-4 in men's tennis. Players like Marcus Mariota, or the new rookies who all seem competent in their preseason debuts (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield). Then there's guys like Prescott and Carr and Watson and so many other intriguing young players.
I think this extends to a new era of coach as well, a turn back to the Walsh-ian tree after the Belichick & Parcells trees becoming stronger the preceding 5-10 years. Doug Pederson heads the list, but now we can see if the same happens with Matt Nagy in Chicago, or can conintue with McVay and Kyle Shanahan for their teams. For the first time in a while, I would say 75% of the league seems to have a very competent head coach.
The NFL is still polarized. It seems inevitable barring a Brady injury the Patriots will win 12+ games for the 9th straight year. It seems equally inevitable the Browns will continue to be bad. But in between there is so much to look forward to in 2018.
It's also getting to a point that my favorite years following the game are far enough away know that I've been forced to move on and look for what's next. My favorite season ever following the NFL is now 10 years old. Arguably my second favorite (2012) is six years old. Most teams have changed coaches or QBs or both. The few that have not have QBs in their late 30's if not 40's. Time moves on. So do my interests, and what I like to see in my football.
The league may not seem healthy, but to me, the games itself are as good as ever. The quality has reached a better equilibrium than three or four years ago. The QBs are all young and interesting. The coaching has gotten better. The sport is better, and even if we are starting the long, slow, death-march to a 6th Patriots Super Bowl, I'm OK being along to watch everything else during that ride.
