I know this is taking advantage of a good situation to write about the Astros again, especially when this is about as advantageous as possible. They survived a ridiculous late June from the Angels and re-took 1st place sweeping those Angels, then gained another two games as the Angels got swept again (and would've gained three if not for a blown 4-1 lead) - but I think that there is a lot of interesting things to say about this team on the way they have handled succeeding earlier than planned, and the trade deadline in particular.
I've said before that if you want to teach a case study on any sports franchise, the best is probably the Duncan & Popovich era Spurs, as they combine hard skills (international scouting, game management, adjusting to new styles) and soft skills (building a cohesive unit that people feel comfortable in, openness of a locker-room, organizational culture); but the Astros are closing in. They sit somewhere in-between the easy stories like the Moneyball A's or '08-'11 Rays, where those teams would never have money, and the current Cubs who have all the money. The Astros tore everything down and rebuilt. That was easy. Choosing what the do when the rebuild is over, that is hard; and the Astros are taking an interesting approach. I'm not going to say it is right, but it definitely is not wrong.
The Astros are ahead of schedule, that much we know. They were expected to approach .500, build off of last year's relatively positive 70-92 season (that is positive given the 100+ losses in 2011-13). They were expected to maybe push for a Wild Card if the AL was weak. Then after a slow start, they won 11 straight games. They were 18-7, and everything changed from there. The vaunted Astros farm system became less vaunted because they kept promoting guys. First it was Lance McCullers, a sandwhich pick in 2012. Then Vincent Velasquez, and Domingo Santana. And the prize was Carlos Correa, a guy who came up at 20 years old and started playing really well from Day 1.
On two different occasions, I wrote about the Astros and said that I hope they don't go too far in winning in 2015. The first time I wrote that was in early May when they were 20-12. That time I said I don't want them to bring up Correa too soon. They did, and they were right. The next time was when they were 48-36, and I still expressed caution. The Astros didn't. Instead they got what they needed, and somehow didn't give up the future. The Astros just showed a masterclass in mixing priorities and still coming out relatively good.
Let's get something out of the way, I don't think Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the Astros brass thought they would be in a position to buy at the deadline. I think Luhnow wanted to play it slow this year even when they started winning, but the funny thing is is that the Houston era bought in. The Houston area wanted more. There is no great team in the AL. By pythagoreon win percentage, the Astros are the best team. You can make an argument they are the best team in the AL, partly because Luhnow realized the AL wasn't that great, and that could do little to put them over the top.
All the time before the deadline, we heard them connected to Hamels, the premier pitcher who had multi-year value, and even Cueto, a rental. We also heard them linked to Kimbrel. Instead, they went the safer, less upside, but also far less cost. To get Scott Kazmir, a guy who when healthy the last 3 seasons has been a clear #2, and Mike Fiers, a guy with tons of team control left and a 9.0 K/9 to be the #5 (#4 when they start limiting McCullers), and Carlos Gomez to shore up the outfield with Jake Marisnick seemingly hitting a well, and not give up any of your top three prospects is kind of fantastic.
The Astros are in an enviable position in that they had a ton of flexibility. They aren't going to become a high-payroll team overnight, but they had payroll to burn over the next 2-3 years before the contracts of Altuve, Kuechel and eventually Springer and Correa come up in reality. They had a ton of prospects still in the system, but none really good enough to be a centerpiece of a package. They avoided the horrifying prospect of trading McCullers as the center of a package, and avoided giving up on Mark Appel before he becomes the next Ben Zobrist or JD Martinez (two recent guys who left Houston and got a lot better). The best prospect they gave up was Brett Phillips, a guy a year away from the majors in a crowded outfield. They gave up superfluous people for three players who are decidedly not superfluous.
The most amazing part of what the Astros did was somehow make their team better in 2016 as well. Carlos Gomez is under contract through 2016, and is relatively cheap enough they may be able to sign him for a team-friendly 3-4 year deal after that (that said, he's blocking guys). Fiers has four more years of team control, which is a little ridiculous. The only guy up at year's end is Kazmir, who they gave up two players who are at minimum two years away (and one not likely to make the majors); but Kazmir is from Houston and given that and his spotty injury history is a perfect player to take a hometown discount.
Also, more than anything they sent a message that they are ready to win, they are ready to spend (or at least spend more), and that they aren't mortgaging the future. They aren't over their heads. This is how you take calculated risks. They may not re-sign Kazmir, but the move for Kazmir will have implications to how the Astros are perceived. The Astros had a perception issue they had to overcome. A year ago, when their e-mails were hacked (later, we found out, by the Cardinals) they were a laughingstock. A year later, no one is laughing.
They still may not make the playoffs, though that is quite unlikely at this point. There are still holes in this team, especially with a lack of real depth and a soft rotation if McCullers is rested late in the season, and that bullpen that was the league's best through 75 games has started to crack a bit, but they are good. They may still be a low-payroll team, but these moves have absolutely made the Astros better in 2015.
A good question for the Astros is where now? They obviously have a really bright future - but the next real question will be that when it comes time to pay up, will they open the checkbook? Houston is a large market. It is the largest market in baseball that has just one team. They have a fan-base that when the team is good, they will draw really well. Their games are finally on TV after a weird situation where the TV station they and the Rockets were going to fund crashed and burned. The revenue is going to start coming in... but will they reinvest.
They clearly have the money and potential revenue to keep the true stars (Correa, Springer, McCullers maybe), but will they keep all the other guys. The Astros have a strong enough pipeline still in the farm (it helps when they picked two guys in the Top-5 of this year's draft and another guy in Daz Cameron who had Top-15 talent) that they can get rid of folks without it being too much of an issue. But will they be players in FA? What is the long term plan? There still are a lot of questions, but man is this a really good time to be an Astros fan.
This was the first trade the Astros were buyers in and had to win in a long, long time. The selling started with Berkman and Oswalt in 2010. Five year's later they finally have to make decisions to get rid of guys, and they took a cautious, risk-averse, controlled approach, something really refreshing to anyone who lived through the Tim Purpura and Ed Wade regimes. Jeff Luhnow is a smart guy, and he'll let you know it, but he's also a careful guy, and that is exactly what the Astros need as they start on a wonderful journey over the coming years.
