The 2015 season is four weeks from tomorrow. That day the Steelers and Patriots will kick-off, with or without Tom Brady. Hopefully actual football can take us away from Deflategate. Still, it is time for me to take stock of where I think all the teams in the league are. With that, here's my first pre-season edition of my Power Rankings.
The '2016 is just 5 months away!' Septo
32.) Cleveland Browns
The Browns had a sneaky good team for about 9 weeks last year, then it all went to hell. Brian Hoyer started the season so well, then turned into Brian Hoyer. Johnny Manziel went to rehab. Josh Gordon became too far gone for rehab (seriously, get help). The offensive coordinator left, and the GM is suspended for four games. Everything is everlasting in Browns-ville.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars
I think the Jaguars are building something, assuming Blake Bortles isn't terrible, but that something will not be realized in 2015. Justin Blackmon is still gone, and #3 pick Dexter Fowler tore his ACL in mini-camp. I think it is about time we also admit that Gus Bradley, despite everyone pulling for him, may not be a very good coach. There is a future if Bortles is something, but it's far too early to say that he may just be nothing.
30.) Chicago Bears
Here's my first shocker - I think the Bears will be terrible. I don't think Cutler will adapt well to Gase's offense, especially without Brandon Marshall. I think that defense is still not very good, even with some interesting moves like Purnell McPhee. I just don't see what there is too like about Chicago, a team that has a few aging OK players, and a few nice young guys, but a terribly soft middle.
29.) Oakland Raiders
I ranked these teams in terms of what I thought their highest ceiling is, and I do think the Raiders have a higher ceiling than Chicago. If Derek Carr continues to improve, and Amari Cooper is everything most people think he is, they have an offense that can scratch and claw their way to 20 a game. Khalil Mack is a beast and the defense has some intriguing talent. They'll likely still go 4-12, but it will be the best 4-12 they've had for a while.
28.) Tennessee Titans
If Marcus Mariota is good as a rookie, they could be the #2 team in the AFC South. Problem is, though, #2 team in the AFC South may require just 6 wins. The Titans still have little talent on offense outside of some over-priced O-Lineman and Mariota. I guess they have some talent on defense, but they were so awful on that side of the ball I can't imagine them improving too much in one season. Again, something is building here, but it will take a while. Shorten that 'while' if Mariota is good, though.
27.) Washington Redskins
The Redskins just completed their most sane off-season in decades. There is still drama around the QB position, as there will be for years with RGIII in a weird purgatory, but all the other moves they made make sense. They probably overpaid for Chris Culliver, but still that's better than what they used to do. If everything comes together, they can challenge .500; can't see any better than that unless RGIII has a true renaissance.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People have been predicting Tampa Bay sleeper seasons since about 2012 at the height of Schiano-mania. I'm predicting a steady improvement and a quasi-breakout next year. Winston may be good, and he'll have the tools around him to speed up his imrpovement curve. The defense has McCoy and David, and Verner in Year 2 in Tampa, and a few other pieces that Lovie can mold. They weren't close to 2-14 bad, more like a 5-11 team. This year, I think they'll just be a 5-11 team.
The "Fallen Brethren" Duo
25.) Houston Texans
JJ Watt is amazing. There are a couple other guys on the defense that are intriguing, like Cushing and Clowney, but both are injury risks. Their best free-agent signing is about 40 years old. They lost Andre Johnson. Their o-line is not that great; and their QBs are probably the worst two of three ex-Brady backups floating around the league. Oh, and their star running back is out till midseason. The only reason I think they are in this group and not the last one is because of JJ Watt, and because I think Bill O'Brien is the best of the ex-Belichick coaches.
24.) San Francisco 49ers
I don't know if I've seen a team change so much in one off-season. It is probably easier to name who is still there: the mercurial Kaepernick, some of the o-line, and then a bunch of guys the 49ers drafted in the past couple years that fell for various reasons. The 49ers were given an gold rush of plaudits for those picks - they better pay off this year. There is still enough talent to be better than the teams below them, but they're perilously close to teetering off the edge.
The "Maybe Tom Brady will decide to just retire" Duo
23.) New York Jets
From here on out, I think all these teams have a chance at the playoffs - a reasonable 25% or greater chance. The Jets essentially need average QB play to combine with a good o-line and some nice skill position players to have a passable offense, and that should have been good enough, but cracks have started to show in that defense. First with Sheldon Richardson's suspension and later drag racing incident, and the fact the team has a huge hole a linebacker. The secondary is much improved. Overall, of all the teams I think have a chance to make the playoffs, this is the worst one.
22.) Buffalo Bills
Here's why I think the Bills will be better than the Jets: because this is the best defense, on pure talent, that Rex Ryan has ever coached. Sure, he has no Darrelle Revis, but he never had a Mario Williams, or Kyle Williams, or most importantly, Marcel Dareus, in New York. This is a man who has manufactured a pass rush his whole Jets career, and now was basically handed one. Yes, their offense may have issues, but Greg Roman's done the whole 'let's make my offense score 20-23 a game and see how far that takes us' thing before.
The "We can Dream Right?" Quinto
21.) Philadelphia Eagles
Internally, the Eagles are doing a lot more than dreaming, but their entire season basically rests around the idea of whether Chip Kelly's shit works in he NFL. There's no real turning back now, this is his team. He's gotten rid of every skill position player he inherited, replacing them with malleable players he believes systematically can do amazing things. I am more skeptical. There is enough talent on that o-line, and surprisingly enough defensive talent to make them average.
20.) Atlanta Falcons
With a new defensive coordinator comes some promise, but I just don't see the talent on this team outside of Matt Ryan, a solid #8-10 QB in the NFL, and Julio Jones, who is only his amazing self when he is able to stay healthy.I want to like this team, one that came a Harry Douglas slip from making the Super Bowl just three years ago, but they've lost so much since then it really is hard to get excited unless that Ryan to White connection does some incredible things.
19.) Detroit Lions
Speaking of a QB-WR combo needing to do incredible things, this team still has Matt Stafford, and Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate who had a great year last season. But here's the thing about the Lions, their resurgent 2014 season was based mainly on an insane run defense and great years from Nick Fairley, when he was healthy, DeAndre Levy, when he was healthy, and Ndamukong Suh. Levy is still there, but those two monsters in the middle are gone. You don't replace Ndamukong Suh, even considering a past-his-prime Haloti Ngata is a reasonable choice. That alone will hurt a team that probably wasn't as good as 11-5 anyway.
18.) Kansas City Chiefs
I just don't know what the Chiefs did to make themselves better in 2015, as I don't think signing Jeremy Maclin is a substantial improvement. The o-line has gotten worse, and that used to be a strength of the team. The defense lost some of their depth up front and in the secondary - even with the return of Eric Berry being a really great surprise. The division and schedule are tougher, and I just don't think they are better.
17.) Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of which, I think this is the year the Bengals fall back a bit, and fall back enough to maybe cost Marvin Lewis his job (though let's be real). I think Andy Dalton has peaked, and I don't see them having enough weapons outside of AJ Green to have a good offense. The defense has gotten worse, and they really need some of those young secondary guys like Dre Kirkpatrick, or last year's 1st round pick Darqueze Dennard, to step up. Again, tough division for a team that didn't get noticeably better.
The "If Things Break Our Way" Quinto
16.) New Orleans Saints
The Saints have the advantage of playing in what is more likely than not a bad division, but again I don't see what is too like apart from Drew Brees. They definitely have the thinnest set of skill position guys of any time in the Brees era, made worse by the Graham trade. The O-Line has gotten worse outside of the pick-up of Unger. The defense has all of the same issues as before. Still, with one of the best 5-6 QBs in the NFL, hard to see this time under .500 again.
15.) Arizona Cardinals
I want to believe in the Cardinals, I really do. With Carson Palmer back, they should be more like the team that started 9-1, but that team was really a 8-4 or 7-5 team that won some close games.I like the addtions on offense, particularly Iupati to give them an actual living o-lineman that can block, and the defense is still full of amazing athletes. I do worry, though, about their pass rush woes becoming larger without Todd Bowles and his crazy blitz schemes. Still, in Bruce I Trust.
14.) New York Giants
Here's what I like about the Giants, other than the ODB: Eli Manning seemed to really get used to that offense in the late stages of the season; the found a pass rush even when you discount JPP last year, and they are getting Victor Cruz back, a guy you figure would excel in that offense. Of course, there are downsides, like JPP being out, and the injuries already starting to hurt the team. It is tough to see what the Giants are, but what they are is better than 6-10.
13.) St. Louis Rams
It all comes down to Nick Foles. If he is even 75% of wht he was in 2013, the Rams can win 10 games, maybe more. Their o-line should in theory be better. They have a live offensive coordinator. They also have the scariest d-line since the prime Giants in the mid-00's. Nick Fairley is a rotational guy - which is insane. If they all stay healthy, this is the best d-line in years an can by itself wil 5-6 games.The rest just comes down to Foles.
12.) Minnesota Vikings
Like the Rams, it really comes down to Bridgewater improving on his nice second half. The pieces are there, whether it is Charles Johnson and a hopefully resurgent Mike Wallance, to the skilled guys all over that Mike Zimmer defense. I really think this is a year they need to see big things from two of their three 1st-round picks from 2013, Shariff Floyd and Xavier Rhodes; and if those two do improve they can be a really scary defense - perfect for their final season outdoors before moving inside in 2016.
The "Second Level Contender" Quatro
11.) Miami Dolphins
There's quite a bit going for them even if you remove Ndamukong Suh. Their offense has three quality receivers, assuming Devante Parker stays healthy, including an absolute steal with Kenny Stills. Their run game was already good. Their secondary is decent, and if their front can stay healthy, they are a top-10 front-4 in the NFL. Now you add to that Ndamukong Suh, one of the 5-10 best defensive players in football... and you get a team that has a legitimate shot of stealing that division if Brady does miss 4 games. All they can hope is that Week 17 game hosting the Patriots is meaningful.
10.) San Diego Chargers
Now that they've locked up Philip Rivers, they can go back to being calmly entrenched in that band between 8-11 wins. Rivers is still great, though does need better o-line play now than earlier in his career. Good thing then, considering their offseason signings. I like Melvin Gordon in theory. What they really need a resurgence from Keenan Allen. The defense still has questions, but they've added solid pieces each of the last few years, and I like their coaching staff top-to-bottom. Solid team, across-the-board.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offense and defense really were two trains passing each other silently in the night. There was one year when both were great (2010), but now they combine a legitimate Top-3 offense in the NFL, a team with one of the three best QBs, the best WR, good secondary weapons, a top all-purpose back, and the best o-line the franchise has had in 10 years... with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I said that Dick LeBeau should retire two years ago, and I hope Tomlin starts playing a little bit more with his principles as a Tampa-2 guy, the best way to hide mediocre talent. That's all they need, really, a mediocre defense.
8.) Carolina Panthers
I made this ranking before Kelvin Benjamin had a scary injury, but he's not seriously hurt it seems. Good thing, because that offense is in a precarious spot. What is not in a precarious spot? That defense, which was as good as any defense this side of Seattle over the 2nd half of last season. The pass rush came back, and should get better with another year from Kony Ealy. The Panthers defense is solid, and the offense should also get better with another year of maturing from both Newton and Benjamin. The schedule is fairly easy, the team is more like the one that finished the season than the one that started it.
The "Teams Hoping Brady Stays Suspended for Seeding Purposes" Quatro
7.) Indianapolis Colts
Top-to-bottom, the NFC is the better conference. Just looking at 'top' it is the AFC, and the Colts lead up that area for the team that probably has the best chance to get the #1 seed - given their division and schedule (and getting Denver and New England at home). I love the Colts moves on offense, and with Andre Johnson ably replacing Reggie Wayne, and Philipp Dorsett as a scary Stokley, this offense can come close to peak Manning Colts offense. I still worry about that defense, that has gotten exposed time and time again. I like the moves for Langford and Cole, but I'm not sure how much better two 30+ year old guys will make that side of the ball.
6.) Dallas Cowboys
Greg Hardy seems like a pretty bad guy, but his suspension being reduced is huge for the Cowboys. The biggest weakness last year was pass rush - and last year's team was one that beat Seattle in Seattle (manhandled them on a play-by-play basis), and could've beaten Green Bay in Green Bay if not for a weird ruling. The year's following recent Cowboys' successes haven't been the best (a 1-3 finish to miss the playoffs in '08, Romo getting hurt and team going 6-10 in '10), but I have more faith in this old-school team than previous iterations.
5.) Denver Broncos
If two things happen, they may be the best team in the NFL. First, if that o-line can gel. Gary Kubiak has done some incredible things with O-Lines (exhibit A: the 2014 Ravens), and he'll need to use all his vast powers. Second, if Manning can stay healthy. Reports are he's looked better this year than any since he came to Denver in camp, but let's remember he was at worst the 2nd best QB in the NFL through 8 games last year. He needs to stay healthy over the course of the season. I think the o-line will take some time to gel, which is why they're only 5th, but I think they're being undervalued overall.
4.) Baltimore Ravens
I'll give my actual record prediction in my conference previews, but I like the Ravens a lot this year. I don't know why, given they're changing the offensive scheme that made them so successful, and they're depending on another top year from Steve Smith, but they found something late last season. That defense has also replenished itself so beautifully; in fact, I tear up just thinking of how well they've restocked that side of the ball. They secondary is also deeper this year than in the past two, helping to aid the worst area of the team. The Ravens, once again, are really good.
The "Shouldn't we just fast-forward to 6:30 PM, Sunday, January 24th" Duo
3.) Seattle Seahawks
The major move for the Seahawks is switching Max Unger, their one real quality o-lineman, for Jimmy Graham. Their success this season rests on that switch working, and their defensive depth not being exposed. Their top players have stayed remarkably healthy the last two seasons, and they'll need that again. If the o-line gels, this is the best starting-22 in the NFL. However, if injuries strike, they fall down that list somewhat quickly. It also would help if they could throw to a WR who was actually drafted.
2.) Green Bay Packers
The NFC last year was essentially decided by tie-breaks. Dallas, Seattle and Green Bay all finished 12-4. The only head-to-head was Dallas beating Seattle, but Seattle got the #1 seed by conference record. Green Bay should have won that title game anyway. The Packers offense is loaded, the o-line is the best it has been in the Rodgers era. The defense fixed a lot of their coverage issues last year, and while they have problems against the run, that's a less worrying problem when your offense can score 35+ points with ease. The Packers are the team to beat in the NFC this year for me.
The "King Stay the King" Uno
1.) New England Patriots
I have a rule, the defending champs stay #1 until they lose. I have been lucky enough that the first five years I did this blog (2010-14), I never had to put the Patriots at #1. I have to now, and lick my wounds. I'll talk about my actual expectations for them in my AFC preview, but for now the King Stay The King.
The '2016 is just 5 months away!' Septo
32.) Cleveland Browns
The Browns had a sneaky good team for about 9 weeks last year, then it all went to hell. Brian Hoyer started the season so well, then turned into Brian Hoyer. Johnny Manziel went to rehab. Josh Gordon became too far gone for rehab (seriously, get help). The offensive coordinator left, and the GM is suspended for four games. Everything is everlasting in Browns-ville.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars
I think the Jaguars are building something, assuming Blake Bortles isn't terrible, but that something will not be realized in 2015. Justin Blackmon is still gone, and #3 pick Dexter Fowler tore his ACL in mini-camp. I think it is about time we also admit that Gus Bradley, despite everyone pulling for him, may not be a very good coach. There is a future if Bortles is something, but it's far too early to say that he may just be nothing.
30.) Chicago Bears
Here's my first shocker - I think the Bears will be terrible. I don't think Cutler will adapt well to Gase's offense, especially without Brandon Marshall. I think that defense is still not very good, even with some interesting moves like Purnell McPhee. I just don't see what there is too like about Chicago, a team that has a few aging OK players, and a few nice young guys, but a terribly soft middle.
29.) Oakland Raiders
I ranked these teams in terms of what I thought their highest ceiling is, and I do think the Raiders have a higher ceiling than Chicago. If Derek Carr continues to improve, and Amari Cooper is everything most people think he is, they have an offense that can scratch and claw their way to 20 a game. Khalil Mack is a beast and the defense has some intriguing talent. They'll likely still go 4-12, but it will be the best 4-12 they've had for a while.
28.) Tennessee Titans
If Marcus Mariota is good as a rookie, they could be the #2 team in the AFC South. Problem is, though, #2 team in the AFC South may require just 6 wins. The Titans still have little talent on offense outside of some over-priced O-Lineman and Mariota. I guess they have some talent on defense, but they were so awful on that side of the ball I can't imagine them improving too much in one season. Again, something is building here, but it will take a while. Shorten that 'while' if Mariota is good, though.
27.) Washington Redskins
The Redskins just completed their most sane off-season in decades. There is still drama around the QB position, as there will be for years with RGIII in a weird purgatory, but all the other moves they made make sense. They probably overpaid for Chris Culliver, but still that's better than what they used to do. If everything comes together, they can challenge .500; can't see any better than that unless RGIII has a true renaissance.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People have been predicting Tampa Bay sleeper seasons since about 2012 at the height of Schiano-mania. I'm predicting a steady improvement and a quasi-breakout next year. Winston may be good, and he'll have the tools around him to speed up his imrpovement curve. The defense has McCoy and David, and Verner in Year 2 in Tampa, and a few other pieces that Lovie can mold. They weren't close to 2-14 bad, more like a 5-11 team. This year, I think they'll just be a 5-11 team.
The "Fallen Brethren" Duo
25.) Houston Texans
JJ Watt is amazing. There are a couple other guys on the defense that are intriguing, like Cushing and Clowney, but both are injury risks. Their best free-agent signing is about 40 years old. They lost Andre Johnson. Their o-line is not that great; and their QBs are probably the worst two of three ex-Brady backups floating around the league. Oh, and their star running back is out till midseason. The only reason I think they are in this group and not the last one is because of JJ Watt, and because I think Bill O'Brien is the best of the ex-Belichick coaches.
24.) San Francisco 49ers
I don't know if I've seen a team change so much in one off-season. It is probably easier to name who is still there: the mercurial Kaepernick, some of the o-line, and then a bunch of guys the 49ers drafted in the past couple years that fell for various reasons. The 49ers were given an gold rush of plaudits for those picks - they better pay off this year. There is still enough talent to be better than the teams below them, but they're perilously close to teetering off the edge.
The "Maybe Tom Brady will decide to just retire" Duo
23.) New York Jets
From here on out, I think all these teams have a chance at the playoffs - a reasonable 25% or greater chance. The Jets essentially need average QB play to combine with a good o-line and some nice skill position players to have a passable offense, and that should have been good enough, but cracks have started to show in that defense. First with Sheldon Richardson's suspension and later drag racing incident, and the fact the team has a huge hole a linebacker. The secondary is much improved. Overall, of all the teams I think have a chance to make the playoffs, this is the worst one.
22.) Buffalo Bills
Here's why I think the Bills will be better than the Jets: because this is the best defense, on pure talent, that Rex Ryan has ever coached. Sure, he has no Darrelle Revis, but he never had a Mario Williams, or Kyle Williams, or most importantly, Marcel Dareus, in New York. This is a man who has manufactured a pass rush his whole Jets career, and now was basically handed one. Yes, their offense may have issues, but Greg Roman's done the whole 'let's make my offense score 20-23 a game and see how far that takes us' thing before.
The "We can Dream Right?" Quinto
21.) Philadelphia Eagles
Internally, the Eagles are doing a lot more than dreaming, but their entire season basically rests around the idea of whether Chip Kelly's shit works in he NFL. There's no real turning back now, this is his team. He's gotten rid of every skill position player he inherited, replacing them with malleable players he believes systematically can do amazing things. I am more skeptical. There is enough talent on that o-line, and surprisingly enough defensive talent to make them average.
20.) Atlanta Falcons
With a new defensive coordinator comes some promise, but I just don't see the talent on this team outside of Matt Ryan, a solid #8-10 QB in the NFL, and Julio Jones, who is only his amazing self when he is able to stay healthy.I want to like this team, one that came a Harry Douglas slip from making the Super Bowl just three years ago, but they've lost so much since then it really is hard to get excited unless that Ryan to White connection does some incredible things.
19.) Detroit Lions
Speaking of a QB-WR combo needing to do incredible things, this team still has Matt Stafford, and Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate who had a great year last season. But here's the thing about the Lions, their resurgent 2014 season was based mainly on an insane run defense and great years from Nick Fairley, when he was healthy, DeAndre Levy, when he was healthy, and Ndamukong Suh. Levy is still there, but those two monsters in the middle are gone. You don't replace Ndamukong Suh, even considering a past-his-prime Haloti Ngata is a reasonable choice. That alone will hurt a team that probably wasn't as good as 11-5 anyway.
18.) Kansas City Chiefs
I just don't know what the Chiefs did to make themselves better in 2015, as I don't think signing Jeremy Maclin is a substantial improvement. The o-line has gotten worse, and that used to be a strength of the team. The defense lost some of their depth up front and in the secondary - even with the return of Eric Berry being a really great surprise. The division and schedule are tougher, and I just don't think they are better.
17.) Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of which, I think this is the year the Bengals fall back a bit, and fall back enough to maybe cost Marvin Lewis his job (though let's be real). I think Andy Dalton has peaked, and I don't see them having enough weapons outside of AJ Green to have a good offense. The defense has gotten worse, and they really need some of those young secondary guys like Dre Kirkpatrick, or last year's 1st round pick Darqueze Dennard, to step up. Again, tough division for a team that didn't get noticeably better.
The "If Things Break Our Way" Quinto
16.) New Orleans Saints
The Saints have the advantage of playing in what is more likely than not a bad division, but again I don't see what is too like apart from Drew Brees. They definitely have the thinnest set of skill position guys of any time in the Brees era, made worse by the Graham trade. The O-Line has gotten worse outside of the pick-up of Unger. The defense has all of the same issues as before. Still, with one of the best 5-6 QBs in the NFL, hard to see this time under .500 again.
15.) Arizona Cardinals
I want to believe in the Cardinals, I really do. With Carson Palmer back, they should be more like the team that started 9-1, but that team was really a 8-4 or 7-5 team that won some close games.I like the addtions on offense, particularly Iupati to give them an actual living o-lineman that can block, and the defense is still full of amazing athletes. I do worry, though, about their pass rush woes becoming larger without Todd Bowles and his crazy blitz schemes. Still, in Bruce I Trust.
14.) New York Giants
Here's what I like about the Giants, other than the ODB: Eli Manning seemed to really get used to that offense in the late stages of the season; the found a pass rush even when you discount JPP last year, and they are getting Victor Cruz back, a guy you figure would excel in that offense. Of course, there are downsides, like JPP being out, and the injuries already starting to hurt the team. It is tough to see what the Giants are, but what they are is better than 6-10.
13.) St. Louis Rams
It all comes down to Nick Foles. If he is even 75% of wht he was in 2013, the Rams can win 10 games, maybe more. Their o-line should in theory be better. They have a live offensive coordinator. They also have the scariest d-line since the prime Giants in the mid-00's. Nick Fairley is a rotational guy - which is insane. If they all stay healthy, this is the best d-line in years an can by itself wil 5-6 games.The rest just comes down to Foles.
12.) Minnesota Vikings
Like the Rams, it really comes down to Bridgewater improving on his nice second half. The pieces are there, whether it is Charles Johnson and a hopefully resurgent Mike Wallance, to the skilled guys all over that Mike Zimmer defense. I really think this is a year they need to see big things from two of their three 1st-round picks from 2013, Shariff Floyd and Xavier Rhodes; and if those two do improve they can be a really scary defense - perfect for their final season outdoors before moving inside in 2016.
The "Second Level Contender" Quatro
11.) Miami Dolphins
There's quite a bit going for them even if you remove Ndamukong Suh. Their offense has three quality receivers, assuming Devante Parker stays healthy, including an absolute steal with Kenny Stills. Their run game was already good. Their secondary is decent, and if their front can stay healthy, they are a top-10 front-4 in the NFL. Now you add to that Ndamukong Suh, one of the 5-10 best defensive players in football... and you get a team that has a legitimate shot of stealing that division if Brady does miss 4 games. All they can hope is that Week 17 game hosting the Patriots is meaningful.
10.) San Diego Chargers
Now that they've locked up Philip Rivers, they can go back to being calmly entrenched in that band between 8-11 wins. Rivers is still great, though does need better o-line play now than earlier in his career. Good thing then, considering their offseason signings. I like Melvin Gordon in theory. What they really need a resurgence from Keenan Allen. The defense still has questions, but they've added solid pieces each of the last few years, and I like their coaching staff top-to-bottom. Solid team, across-the-board.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offense and defense really were two trains passing each other silently in the night. There was one year when both were great (2010), but now they combine a legitimate Top-3 offense in the NFL, a team with one of the three best QBs, the best WR, good secondary weapons, a top all-purpose back, and the best o-line the franchise has had in 10 years... with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I said that Dick LeBeau should retire two years ago, and I hope Tomlin starts playing a little bit more with his principles as a Tampa-2 guy, the best way to hide mediocre talent. That's all they need, really, a mediocre defense.
8.) Carolina Panthers
I made this ranking before Kelvin Benjamin had a scary injury, but he's not seriously hurt it seems. Good thing, because that offense is in a precarious spot. What is not in a precarious spot? That defense, which was as good as any defense this side of Seattle over the 2nd half of last season. The pass rush came back, and should get better with another year from Kony Ealy. The Panthers defense is solid, and the offense should also get better with another year of maturing from both Newton and Benjamin. The schedule is fairly easy, the team is more like the one that finished the season than the one that started it.
The "Teams Hoping Brady Stays Suspended for Seeding Purposes" Quatro
7.) Indianapolis Colts
Top-to-bottom, the NFC is the better conference. Just looking at 'top' it is the AFC, and the Colts lead up that area for the team that probably has the best chance to get the #1 seed - given their division and schedule (and getting Denver and New England at home). I love the Colts moves on offense, and with Andre Johnson ably replacing Reggie Wayne, and Philipp Dorsett as a scary Stokley, this offense can come close to peak Manning Colts offense. I still worry about that defense, that has gotten exposed time and time again. I like the moves for Langford and Cole, but I'm not sure how much better two 30+ year old guys will make that side of the ball.
6.) Dallas Cowboys
Greg Hardy seems like a pretty bad guy, but his suspension being reduced is huge for the Cowboys. The biggest weakness last year was pass rush - and last year's team was one that beat Seattle in Seattle (manhandled them on a play-by-play basis), and could've beaten Green Bay in Green Bay if not for a weird ruling. The year's following recent Cowboys' successes haven't been the best (a 1-3 finish to miss the playoffs in '08, Romo getting hurt and team going 6-10 in '10), but I have more faith in this old-school team than previous iterations.
5.) Denver Broncos
If two things happen, they may be the best team in the NFL. First, if that o-line can gel. Gary Kubiak has done some incredible things with O-Lines (exhibit A: the 2014 Ravens), and he'll need to use all his vast powers. Second, if Manning can stay healthy. Reports are he's looked better this year than any since he came to Denver in camp, but let's remember he was at worst the 2nd best QB in the NFL through 8 games last year. He needs to stay healthy over the course of the season. I think the o-line will take some time to gel, which is why they're only 5th, but I think they're being undervalued overall.
4.) Baltimore Ravens
I'll give my actual record prediction in my conference previews, but I like the Ravens a lot this year. I don't know why, given they're changing the offensive scheme that made them so successful, and they're depending on another top year from Steve Smith, but they found something late last season. That defense has also replenished itself so beautifully; in fact, I tear up just thinking of how well they've restocked that side of the ball. They secondary is also deeper this year than in the past two, helping to aid the worst area of the team. The Ravens, once again, are really good.
The "Shouldn't we just fast-forward to 6:30 PM, Sunday, January 24th" Duo
3.) Seattle Seahawks
The major move for the Seahawks is switching Max Unger, their one real quality o-lineman, for Jimmy Graham. Their success this season rests on that switch working, and their defensive depth not being exposed. Their top players have stayed remarkably healthy the last two seasons, and they'll need that again. If the o-line gels, this is the best starting-22 in the NFL. However, if injuries strike, they fall down that list somewhat quickly. It also would help if they could throw to a WR who was actually drafted.
2.) Green Bay Packers
The NFC last year was essentially decided by tie-breaks. Dallas, Seattle and Green Bay all finished 12-4. The only head-to-head was Dallas beating Seattle, but Seattle got the #1 seed by conference record. Green Bay should have won that title game anyway. The Packers offense is loaded, the o-line is the best it has been in the Rodgers era. The defense fixed a lot of their coverage issues last year, and while they have problems against the run, that's a less worrying problem when your offense can score 35+ points with ease. The Packers are the team to beat in the NFC this year for me.
The "King Stay the King" Uno
1.) New England Patriots
I have a rule, the defending champs stay #1 until they lose. I have been lucky enough that the first five years I did this blog (2010-14), I never had to put the Patriots at #1. I have to now, and lick my wounds. I'll talk about my actual expectations for them in my AFC preview, but for now the King Stay The King.
