The Calm Genius: Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw is not just one of the best pitchers of his generation. He is putting up a resume that should place him as one of the best ever. He's on a five game stretch that basically no one has matched apart from Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux. Those are two of the ~10 best pitchers ever. Those are legends of the game that will last generations. Kershaw is basically going to be that guy. Yet what makes Clayton Kershaw so odd is he doesn't have the filth of Randy Johnson (the 90-mph slider that was nearly unhittable) or the brilliance of Maddux (who's pitches moved more than a politician during the general election - and yes I apologize for that simile). Kershaw throws a fastball at 92-94 MPHs. He has a hilarious curve and a great changeup and a great slider, but other than the curveball he's not the best in MLB at any of them. Yet combine them all and you have a guy who put up a historic 1.83 ERA in 2013, and actually got better in 2014. Kershaw has gotten to play against worse competition than guys did just 10 years ago, but his numbers and his peerless genius are still legendary. The most hilarious part is that he's just 27. Clayton Kershaw has a chance to go down as the next Maddux or Randy Johnson, or even Roger Clemens. He's already the closest to Pedro, in terms of a combination of incredible control and nasty stuff, that we've seen since the Dominican giant. Clayton Kershaw is also an incredible, almost comically good, person. There's really nothing he does less than the best in baseball, a true hero for the 21st Century.
The Perfectionist Genius: Buster Posey
From the day Buster Posey got called up in 2010, the Giants have been the best team in baseball. Not the team with the best record, but the team that has won three World Series. In that time, Buster Posey has won an MVP, have another season in the Top-10, lead the NL in WAR for catchers three times, and put up OBS+'s of 133-116-171-134-145-149. His career OPS+ is 144. He's arguably better now than he was two years ago. He's done this all while also being the best defensive catcher in the NL, and arguably the best pitch framer. He's basically a perfect catcher, the NLs version of Joe Mauer, but with more power. Buster Posey has also done all this while having a classic easy swing, a beautiful way of playing, and combining that all with boy-ish good looks. He's a true American dream, a young, smart, polite kid who does everything well and goes home each night to his gorgeous all-american girl-next-door wife. Buster Posey is a man straight out of literature, straight out of Field of Dreams, the guy who makes us all feel bad about how we are living our lives. Of course, he's also only 28.
The Next Genius: Mike Trout
I'm not going to overrate Mike Trout by saying he is the 21st Century Mickey Mantle, a man who is so good at everything it almost seems boring now. It wasn't always boring. In Mike Trout's first full season, he came up in May and basically was the best player in baseball. He was the hero if the new statistical age. Sabermetrics went first from a movement to say that Adam Dunn is better than Juan Pierre, but then became the movement that Mike Trout, the ultimate 5-tool player, was better than Miguel Cabrera, the man with one tool better than any of Trout's tools. Well, three years later, other than Bryce Harper, it looks like no one really has any tool better than Mike Trout. It just looks so easy, so natural, to watch him up at the plate roping drives to all fields, and often over the fence. Trout's fielding and base-running has gotten worse, but his bat has only gotten better. He has a career 170 OPS+, and he's not even 24. Mike Trout is going to be really good for a long, long time. There is a chance we are talking about someone who could reach Pujols' numbers for his first 10 seasons. We are talking about a guy who if he continues this production for 5 more years may already make the hall of fame. And all of that is because we can capture what Trout does well better than we ever could. Only thing is over time Trout has taken that problem away from us, as now he's just decided to be good at the things we can easily track.
The Lost Genius: Tim Lincecum
Through his first four full seasons ('08-'11), Tim Lincecum averaged the following:
16-9; 2.81 ERA; 220 IPs; 244 Ks; 78 BBs; 143 ERA+
Over the next three-and-a-half seasons ('12-'14), Tim Lincecum has averaged the following:
11-13; 4.76 ERA; 180 IPs; 172 Ks; 76 BBs; 75+
There may not have been a player to have that drastic of a fall off in MLB history, especially someone who did the first four seasons at ages 24-27 and did the last three at 28-30. Tim Lincecum is unlike anyone ever for how bad he became, but he was also unlike anyone ever in how good he was. Everyone expected Lincecum, a man of all of 5'9", to have his arm fall off given his violent, odd, hysterical pitching motion. It never did, and for four years that motion coupled with a 95-MPH fastball and a delirious curve was able to make him one of the three best pitchers in baseball. It was able to make him good enough to pitch one of the great games in MLB history. One day after Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS, Lincecum pitched a game that was in some ways better. Against the Braves, Lincecum threw a complete game shutout, with 14 Ks, 1 walk and two hits. He was electric, he was a wizard with the ball, spinning pitch after pitch by hapless Braves. He ended that postseason with a game about as good. In the World Series clincher in Texas, he threw 8 innings, allowing one run on three hits with 10 Ks. Lincecum was a delight, a fascinating study on exacting science (his carefully crafted delivery) matching up with artistic brilliance. Lincecum had a flair all his own, an almost Pedro-esque personality on the mound. He'll never be that guy again. He will never come close. But we'll always have those four years, those back-to-back Cy Young awards, and those electrifying nights where this little man ruled the world.
The Unwanted Genius: Chris Sale
If you try hard, you can make an argument that Chris Sale is every bit as good as Clayton Kershaw over the past 4+ seasons. He hasn't pitches as much because he's gotten hurt slightly more, but Chris Sale has been phenomenal since becoming a full-time starter in 2012. Since then, his 162-game average has been the following:
16-11; 2.80 ERA; 232 IPs; 259 Ks; 52 BBs; 143 ERA+.
Now, that's not as good as Kershaw, but in many ways Sale has gone about it being the anti-Kershaw. Unlike Clayton's easy power pitching style, Sale is violent, Sale is harmful, Sale is the guy that everyone thought would have blown out that elbow years ago. Chris Sale is 6'6" and 180 lbs. Chris Sale is basically gumby, with an elastic arm to boot. So far he's never had any serious arm issue, and thank God, because watching him twirl those dynamic pitches is a thing of beauty. He is the national air of Randy Johnson, with the height and the lankiness and the strained delivery to boot. Chris Sale recently had 8-straight starts with double digit strikeouts. The two other guys to do that are named Randy and Pedro. Sale belongs at that level when he's at his best. Luckily for us all, he's been at his best for a long time now.
The Perfectionist Genius: Buster Posey
From the day Buster Posey got called up in 2010, the Giants have been the best team in baseball. Not the team with the best record, but the team that has won three World Series. In that time, Buster Posey has won an MVP, have another season in the Top-10, lead the NL in WAR for catchers three times, and put up OBS+'s of 133-116-171-134-145-149. His career OPS+ is 144. He's arguably better now than he was two years ago. He's done this all while also being the best defensive catcher in the NL, and arguably the best pitch framer. He's basically a perfect catcher, the NLs version of Joe Mauer, but with more power. Buster Posey has also done all this while having a classic easy swing, a beautiful way of playing, and combining that all with boy-ish good looks. He's a true American dream, a young, smart, polite kid who does everything well and goes home each night to his gorgeous all-american girl-next-door wife. Buster Posey is a man straight out of literature, straight out of Field of Dreams, the guy who makes us all feel bad about how we are living our lives. Of course, he's also only 28.
The Next Genius: Mike Trout
I'm not going to overrate Mike Trout by saying he is the 21st Century Mickey Mantle, a man who is so good at everything it almost seems boring now. It wasn't always boring. In Mike Trout's first full season, he came up in May and basically was the best player in baseball. He was the hero if the new statistical age. Sabermetrics went first from a movement to say that Adam Dunn is better than Juan Pierre, but then became the movement that Mike Trout, the ultimate 5-tool player, was better than Miguel Cabrera, the man with one tool better than any of Trout's tools. Well, three years later, other than Bryce Harper, it looks like no one really has any tool better than Mike Trout. It just looks so easy, so natural, to watch him up at the plate roping drives to all fields, and often over the fence. Trout's fielding and base-running has gotten worse, but his bat has only gotten better. He has a career 170 OPS+, and he's not even 24. Mike Trout is going to be really good for a long, long time. There is a chance we are talking about someone who could reach Pujols' numbers for his first 10 seasons. We are talking about a guy who if he continues this production for 5 more years may already make the hall of fame. And all of that is because we can capture what Trout does well better than we ever could. Only thing is over time Trout has taken that problem away from us, as now he's just decided to be good at the things we can easily track.
The Lost Genius: Tim Lincecum
Through his first four full seasons ('08-'11), Tim Lincecum averaged the following:
16-9; 2.81 ERA; 220 IPs; 244 Ks; 78 BBs; 143 ERA+
Over the next three-and-a-half seasons ('12-'14), Tim Lincecum has averaged the following:
11-13; 4.76 ERA; 180 IPs; 172 Ks; 76 BBs; 75+
There may not have been a player to have that drastic of a fall off in MLB history, especially someone who did the first four seasons at ages 24-27 and did the last three at 28-30. Tim Lincecum is unlike anyone ever for how bad he became, but he was also unlike anyone ever in how good he was. Everyone expected Lincecum, a man of all of 5'9", to have his arm fall off given his violent, odd, hysterical pitching motion. It never did, and for four years that motion coupled with a 95-MPH fastball and a delirious curve was able to make him one of the three best pitchers in baseball. It was able to make him good enough to pitch one of the great games in MLB history. One day after Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds in Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS, Lincecum pitched a game that was in some ways better. Against the Braves, Lincecum threw a complete game shutout, with 14 Ks, 1 walk and two hits. He was electric, he was a wizard with the ball, spinning pitch after pitch by hapless Braves. He ended that postseason with a game about as good. In the World Series clincher in Texas, he threw 8 innings, allowing one run on three hits with 10 Ks. Lincecum was a delight, a fascinating study on exacting science (his carefully crafted delivery) matching up with artistic brilliance. Lincecum had a flair all his own, an almost Pedro-esque personality on the mound. He'll never be that guy again. He will never come close. But we'll always have those four years, those back-to-back Cy Young awards, and those electrifying nights where this little man ruled the world.
The Unwanted Genius: Chris Sale
If you try hard, you can make an argument that Chris Sale is every bit as good as Clayton Kershaw over the past 4+ seasons. He hasn't pitches as much because he's gotten hurt slightly more, but Chris Sale has been phenomenal since becoming a full-time starter in 2012. Since then, his 162-game average has been the following:
16-11; 2.80 ERA; 232 IPs; 259 Ks; 52 BBs; 143 ERA+.
Now, that's not as good as Kershaw, but in many ways Sale has gone about it being the anti-Kershaw. Unlike Clayton's easy power pitching style, Sale is violent, Sale is harmful, Sale is the guy that everyone thought would have blown out that elbow years ago. Chris Sale is 6'6" and 180 lbs. Chris Sale is basically gumby, with an elastic arm to boot. So far he's never had any serious arm issue, and thank God, because watching him twirl those dynamic pitches is a thing of beauty. He is the national air of Randy Johnson, with the height and the lankiness and the strained delivery to boot. Chris Sale recently had 8-straight starts with double digit strikeouts. The two other guys to do that are named Randy and Pedro. Sale belongs at that level when he's at his best. Luckily for us all, he's been at his best for a long time now.
