Following Novak Djokovic's 4-set win over Roger Federer in the 2015 Wimbledon Final, a somewhat placcid affair overall after the dramatics of their match one year ago, I engaged a couple friends in a nice debate. The debate was, how many majors does Novak Djokovic end up with, and how many does he need to realistically be compared favorably to Rafael Nadal?
As an unabashed Nadal fan, this question hurts. It doesn't hurt because I don't want to admit Novak is a truly special player, one who is very close to Top-5 all time; but because I never wanted to have to entertain this question.
A quick side-bar; about 15 months ago, right before the 2014 French Open, I made a bet with a friend. The bet was that over the course of the next 7 slams (through 2015), Roger Federer would not win a Grand Slam. My friend is a huge Federer fan, and the bet was $50 bucks. I'll admit Federer's given me way more scares than I could have imagined, but with only one slam left - a slam he hasn't made the Final in since 2009 - I'm fairly confident. Following that year's French Open, when Nadal was his 14th title, having just won two of the last three, making the Final in Australia and being the #1 in the word, I made a more outrageous career bet. It pains me that 5 slams later, not only am I likely losing that career bet, but the question of can Djokovic catch Nadal has to be considered.
Anyway, so given that Novak won his 3rd Wimbledon, his 9th overall slam (moving him past the Connors-Lendl-Agassi group and into a new stratosphere), what does he have to do exactly to get to that level. And, can you start the argument now?
Here are the points in Djokovic's favor. He's been far more consistent over the past 8 years than Rafa Nadal. He's made it to at least the QFs of every slam since the French Open in 2009. He's had a streak of making the semifinals in 14 straight slams. He will almost assuredly end this season at #1, giving him a 4th year-end #1 ranking. He already has more weeks at #1 than Rafael Nadal.
Of course, here are the points in Nadal's favor at the moment: He's won 5 more slams (not meaningless at all). He's completed a career slam, along with a Gold Medal. He's won on more different surfaces. He has a better record in majors, in major finals, in everything, The differences between the two in terms of consistency essentially come down to Nadal's injuries, and his odd inability to play on grass in recent years. Nadal has a slim overall head-to-head lead on Djokovic, but a lead of 9-4 in grand slam matches; couple that with his 9-2 record against Federer, and you're talking about a guy who is 18-6 against two of the other top-6/7 players of all time in Grand Slam matches. By the way, that 9-4 record includes a record of 2-2 on hard court, and 1-1 on grass.
But then it comes to what does Novak realistically have to accomplish, and can he. Any additional slam Nadal wins makes it that much harder, but does Nadal really have slams left in him (I think so, but it can be debated). Novak has to win five more slams to catch Nadal. 5 is a lot. Djokovic has been the unquestioned best player in the world from 2012-15. In that period he's won just 5 slams. He turned 28 this year, and while he just won a slam, we have to look no further than Nadal and Federer to see how important that 28 year age is.
Rafa Nadal won the 2014 French Open the week after turning 28; he hasn't won a slam since. Roger Federer turned 28 in August 2009. He had just won the two slams right before that, and would go on to win the Australian Open as a 28 years old - he's won just one major since despite staying healthy. Age hasn't beaten Federer, but it certainly effected him. It will to Djokovic too.
Even if we assume Novak will get a French Open to complete his career slam, does Novak have to pass Nadal to be considered his equal? What helps Novak is the overall head-to-head (especially if we assume Novak ends up catching Nadal) will be likely close; Novak will likely overtake Nadal's record of Masters 1000 tournament wins (right now it is 27-24 Nadal); and will have many more weeks at #1; but Nadal would likely still have a better winning percentage, and a better head-to-head in Grand Slam matches.
But personally I don't see Novak catching Nadal. Djokovic does look far and away the best player in the World - he is far and away the best; but we have two recent examples of his failings.
Here's what I think I can say: Novak Djokovic is arguably the best best-of-three all-court player in teh sports history. That, though, doesn't translate perfectly into best-of-five. He's just 9-8 in Grand Slam Finals (Federer is 17-9; Nadal is 14-6). He's lost recently in Slams to players he dominates in best-of-three situations (Murray twice, Wawrinka, Nishikori). He has an odd habit of randomly playing a weird, aloof, flighty match in major tournaments. As good as he's been in the past four years following his once-in-a-lifetime 2011, the slam count since 2012 is Djokovic 5 to Nadal 4.
Then the young guys will, at some point, start playing better. We've already seen one of them, Nishikori, beat Novak in a slam match, but guys like Dimitrov, Raonic, Coric, all of these guys are young and entering their primes as Novak reaches the back nine of his prime. They won't all beat him, but they will sometimes - and sometimes is enough. Sometimes is enough especially when you consider that Novak has lost, or been taken to 5, by Murray and Wawrinka in slams, and that Nadal may not be done yet.
It is a strange position to be in - Djokovic is far and away the best player currently, and he's still likely going to be remembered as the 3rd best player of his era. We think of him as an era behind Federer and Nadal; and to some degree he is. When Djokovic made his first Slam Final, the 2007 US Open, Federer was going for his 9th. But Nadal is just one year older; and to put it into perspective how far he is behind Nadal's pace, when Nadal was the same age that Djokovic is currently, he had 14 majors. Nadal's injuries over the past 12 months give Novak an opportunity to make up that gap, but he has to be peerless.
At times he looks peerless. At times, like in the 3rd and 4th set yesterday, he looks unbeatable. His 46-3 record this year shows that as well; but he is beatable, as Wawrinka showed as well - a match he dominated roughly to the same degree Novak dominated yesterday. Djokovic remains the best player in the world, he should finally start getting his due as a guy who should be a Top-5 all time when it is all said and done, but he has just enough peers that I don't think we'll have to entertain the question of Djokovic or Nadal.
