I wrote about the Astros back in May. They were 20-12 at the time. They had an expected w-l of 18-14. They were not lucky, but also seemingly playing over their head and having the good fortune of a nice 32 game sample.
Now here we sit, just over halfway through the season, the Astros are 48-36 (28-24 since that first post), with a pythagoreon record of the same. They've not had a long enough sample that the expectation is this is a playoff team. Fangraph's gives them a 75% chance of making the playoffs. They have the 2nd best run differential in the AL, and the best pythagoreon record. They are definitely now not a fluke. Sure, they can still make the playoffs. They can have a September collapse like the 2010 Padres or 2012 Pirates, but chances are they won't. So how do I feel about this team now? Largely the same. This season is not about October, it isn't about making a run for it; it is about another step in the process towards contention, towards dominance.
The Astros are giving me something I haven't felt since 2005, a sense of optimism. Even in their random 86-win season in 2008, there was a sense that this was not sustainable, a rare oasis in a sea of terrible transactions, moves and decisions. The Astros were a horribly run franchise, one that unendingly chose to make moves for the present and sacrifice the future, which works even worse when the moves made for the present fail spectacularly. That all is behind us. They are now among the best run teams in baseball - one that uses analytics, scouting expertise and savvy to build a team with few real weaknesses, good enough to be a true contender in the mediocre AL.
The Astros have none of their 9 top position players with an OPS+ below 80. They have no truly awful hitter, as even Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena have hit for enough power to make up for their ghastly batting averages. They also have four players well above 100, five if you include Jed Lowrie who should be back after the all-star break.
They have an ace in Dallas Kuechel, who leads all AL Pitchers in WAR since the start of 2014 (no, that is not a misprint). Lance McCullers has been great since his call-up. Colin McHugh's peripherals are better than his overall numbers; and they have the 2nd best bullpen in the AL. Combine it all and the Astros have the 4th best ERA in the AL.
When you combine a team with the 4th best ERA in the AL, and the 4th best OPS in the AL, you have a good team. They do a couple things better than anyone, including hit home runs, attack low and away on opposing batters, and defense ground balls. When you do three things better than anyone else, you probably will win enough games in a league where 90 will basically guarantee you a playoff spot.
Still, though, I'm not getting too excited. First, this has been a .500 team for a month now, and the Angels sit just two games back in the loss column. Second, this is still not about this year.
And that brings to me the man I hven't mentioned yet: Carlos Correa. He's the prodigy, he's the guy who was the biggest sign that the Astros rebuild is over, and contention has started. This is what I wrote about Correa's potential call-up in May:
He was promoted to AAA today, and there is a chance he's in the major's this year. That's faster than anticipated, but if it does happen, I don't want it to be because the team wants to squeeze out a few games.
Well, he wasn't brought in just to win a couple games - by WAR he's done that already.
Carlos Correa has been better than I ever could have imagined. Through 25 games played, he's at a .315/.339/.593 mark, with 16 extra-base hits in 25 games, including 7 home runs. He shows prodigous hitting ability, with perfect hitting balance. He plays a clean, if unspectacular short-stop, which is pretty darn good given his 6'4" frame. He's fast, lithe, and unique. He's a young A-Rod (and yes, he's not as good). He's already likely the best shortstop in the AL. He's also 20.
Carlos Correa was kind of infamously taken in what was perceived to be an attempt by the Astros to under-pay the top pick and save money to sign a guy who slipped because of signability. That all did happen; the Astros paid Correa under slot and used the extra bonus money to pay over-slot for Lance McCullers; but Correa has been incredible, well deserving for his #1 draft pick status.
Correa was the final piece, but the one's that came before have all been good. Lance McCullers has been dominant so far; Vincent Velasquez has been spotty but exciting. Domingo Santana has shown more ability than anticipated. It all really started, however, with George Springer, who came up last year. He struck out all the time, but showed ability. This year after a slow start he's become a solid, almost borderline all-star level player. He's improved his patience considerably, with a respectable 2-1 K-BB ratio. He's improved in his fielding and baserunning. He's been on pace for a 5 WAR season. He's also young and under team control for years.
And now he's hurt. That's one reason to temper the excitement, but what I don't want the Astros to do is panic. Sure, they have little depth and these injuries, coupled with inevitable innings limits for McCullers and Velasquez will hurt, but don't panic. Don't trade the rest of the still good farm to get Hamels. Don't do anything dumb. Plug away, hope the current roster is good enough, make a low risk and low commitment return, like get Kazmir for a bag of balls and the #8-9 prospects. Don't ruin what 2015 is starting. Astros fans have waited long enough, we can wait a little bit more.
