My playoff primers are back for another year. Same format as last year (and the 2009 Playoffs). Same categories. There was one change, as I removed the 'Top-2 Seed They Can Beat' and 'Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat' part for the bottom four seeds, as they were woefully wrong. Embarrassing really. Anyway, the rest is the same.
One disclaimer: I used a lot of Football Outsiders' statistics, from DVOA and DYAR (for teams, players, units), and a lot of their drive stats. They do amazing work, and would be the first advanced analytics site I would recommend in football.
*******************************************************************************
6.) New Orleans Saints (11-5 = 414-304)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 414 ptf (10th), 304 pta (4th), +110 pd (7th), 6,391 ydf (4th), 4,891 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: +19.3% team (4th), +15.9% off (5th), -5.9% def (10th), -2.5% st (24th)
Offense: Who's the best offense in the NFC has a lot to do with where the game is. If the game is in the Superdome, then it is the Saints and no one comes close. Forget the NFC, no one comes close in the NFL. Of course, they won't be playing any home games in these playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Saints are bad. They've had trouble on the road, but on the whole, the unit is still the best in the NFC. Brees had a stellar year, cutting down on his interceptions from 2012, going from 19 to 12. He still will throw it up for grabs, and he was sacked more than normal, but few are better. The o-line was decent in run blocking, with Mark Ingram having his first good year in his three-year career. Obviously, much of their offensive production comes from their two matchup nightmares: Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. Both have dealt with injuries at various times this year, but each are close to uncoverable. The screen game is a large part of the offense, but their effectiveness on screens were far, far better at home. The Saints rarely have drives that end in punts, but they do struggle relatively speaking in the red zone, a problem that manifests itself against the better defense higher up the NFC food chain. Rank: 1st
Defense: All year long I've waited for the Rob Ryan defense to crumble like all his previous defenses did, and it never happened. I have to give him credit, his defense did a wonderful job all year long. They had two notable bad moments, giving up last second drives to both New England and Carolina to lose close games, but that doesn't come close to outweighing all the positives. This version of the Saints defense is really unlike the 2009 version. This one can rush the passer better than all but like three teams in the NFL. Both Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette excelled in Rob Ryan's scheme, posting 12.5 and 12.0 sacks. No one else had even 5, but so many different players chipped in. One thing I notice is that while he's aggressive in the amount of secondary blitzes he calls, he usually covers them behind pretty well. The Saints rush defense is not really good, and they don't create turnovers (a staple of the 2009 unit). One of the strangest drive stats I uncovered was that they lead the NFL in percentage of drives forcing three-and-outs, which is stunning. That's how they end up with the #4 ranking in yards allowed. Trouble could always be brewing in a Rob Ryan defense, but for now it's chugging along nicely. Rank: 3rd
QB: Like always, Drew Brees threw for 5,000 yards. For the third year in a row he broke the previous record of 5,084 yards. He also had 39 TDs, a passer rating of 104.7. Brees was #3 in the NFL in both DYAR and DVOA for full-season QBs. Brees threw shorter more than usual, but some of that is due to his protection, as Brees took more sacks than he ever has before. That all said, he still remains a future Hall of Fame QB playing really well. Rank: 1st
Coach: Sean Payton returned. That's all people care about. They assume everything magically came together again. Of course, the Saints offense was arguably better last year. The only improvement made was a decrease in turnovers. It's the defense that made this team a playoff team this year. Rob Ryan has done a great job being creative in using his personnel. Payton, however, does remain aggressive and smart in time management. Rank: 2nd
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4 = 406-272)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 406 ptf (11th), 272 pta (3rd), +134 pd (3rd), 5,180 ydf (24th), 5,071 yda (5th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (6th),+9.1% off (8th), -4.6% def (13th), +3.7% st (7th)
Offense: The 49ers gained more than 400 yards in a game one time this season. That was in Week 1, when Kaepernick threw for 400 yards and it seemed like he would fulfill the wishes of Ron Jaworski. Then, the 49ers became an average offense with multiple-game stretches of awful play. They didn't crack 200 yards in their last two losses (back to back games home to Carolina and at New Orleans). The passing offense definitely improved after the return of Michael Crabtree, but it isn't like they are now a dynamic one. The run game is still excellently designed, allowing Frank Gore to have more production than anyone could have imagined at 30. Vernon Davis had another nice season as well. The 49ers do a couple things really well. The first is a lack of turnovers, something that has been a constant throughout the Jim Harbaugh era. The other is good red zone production, which is in a way surprising giving some of their overall struggles to move the ball. That's where the effective run game comes into play, I guess. The 49ers have shown an ability to dominate bad teams, but they've struggled against any good offense they've played. Rank: 6th
Defense: The 49ers defense, much like their offense, beat up on bad teams. They can swallow up marginal offense easily. Their defesive corp has stayed healthy all season long, and it shows in their simple, but brilliantly effective style. NaVarro Bowman had an awesome year at inside backer, and Patrick Willis remains Patrick Willis. Their pass rush actually didn't drop that much during Aldon Smith's stint in rehab, but it is definitely better having him around than not. The quiet little secret about the 49ers, though, is their average secondary play this year. Losing Dashon Goldson was big, even if Eric Reid has done a nice job at FS. Carlos Rogers had another good year, but the depth didn't play as well as it has in the past. Teams can throw on the 49ers, especially if their pass rush is not pushing the pocket. It still really comes down to the play of Justin Smith. His interior presence makes that pass rush, and consequently, pass defense work. Rank: 4th
QB: Colin Kaepernick has some good strengths. He's pretty careful with the ball, he can throw well on the run, he has the threat to run on any play. There's also some bad weaknesses. He struggles to throw to covered receivers, which is a problem at times with receivers who don't always get separation. He takes off too soon and is slow in his progressions. Kaepernick definitely didn't improve in his 2nd year as a starting QB, but he's still dynamic. Rank: 6th
Coach: The Harbaugh-Roman-Fangio trio has been in place for three years, and has led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record. This is despite having average skill position talent and two starting QBs. Harbaugh's offense will never dominate good defenses, but it is ruthlessly effective. The defense is the same, and Fangio has done a good job scheming pressure instead of just relying on Aldon Smith. Even in game management the Harbaugh Group excels. Rank: 1st
4.) Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 = 417-428)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 428 pta (24th), -11 pd (16th), 6,404 ydf (3rd), 5,956 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: -6.2% team (21st), +8.6% off (9th), +14.4% def (31st), -0.4% st (19th)
Offense: It is hard to really judge what the Packers offense is. Obviously, looking at their yearly numbers don't really help because half the season was played by Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzein and Matt Flynn. Rodgers had another stellar season when he was healthy, but he definitely looked a bit rusty last Sunday. The offense as a whole is not as explosive as the Packers were in previous years, largely because James Jones hasn't had the season he normally has, and Randall Cobb missed a bunch of games. Cobb too is back now, and he definitely looked fully healthy against Chicago. The run game was a big story all year long for Green Bay. They finished the year with the 3rd best rushing DVOA in the NFL. The o-line, despite injuries, had its best year in a while in pass protection too. It is hard to really judge this, but the Packers offense, while not as good as it was in 2011-12, is still a top unit. Rank: 3rd
Defense: Hiding behind the near fall of the Packers due to backup QBs was their defense which hasn't played well all season long. DVOA put them as the 2nd worst defense in the NFL, and unlike the Chargers, that translated into giving up a boatload of points. The Packers do nothing particularly well other than cause fumbles (which they had a hard time of recovering). The Pass Defense in the Capers era has alternated between strong, terrible but takeaway prone, and just terrible, with its nadir coming this year. The pass defense numbers were worse in 2011, but at least that season they had a habit of intercepting a ball or two a game. That hasn't happened this year at all. The Packers secondary has really never recovered from losing Nick Collins years ago. The pass rush struggled with Clay Matthews out, and now he's out again. AJ Hawk had a nice year as a blitzing inside-backer, and Mike Daniels had a breakout season as well. None of these people resemble a healthy Clay Matthews, though. The Packers have a good offense, and they'll need it. Sadly, it seems more and more like the Packers will basically do what the Manning era Colts did, combine a great offense and an awesome QB with a terrible defense. Rank: 6th
QB: Aaron Rodgers is very good. That much is obvious. He ended up 10th in DVOA despite missing half the year. If he held that value over 16 games, he would have been 4th in the league. He still takes too many sacks, and he tries to fit balls into tight windows more than he should, but as a rare QB who has the zip to make most of those throws, it works a lot of the time. He was rusty on Sunday, and was definitely looking less to run with the threat of a repeat injury. Still, he's about as good as any QB in the NFL. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike McCarthy has become a controversial figure because of his inability to use timeouts, challenges and good 4th down judgement. Of course, he's also a great playcaller, capable of utilizing all of the receivers in distinct, effective ways. That part in the end is more important. On the other side, Dom Capers hasn't been able to show that adaptive nature, as his defense fails miserably when top-end talent leaves or gets injured. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note:
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 = 442-382)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 442 ptf (4th), 382 pta (17th), +60 pd (9th), 6,6706 ydf (2nd), 6,307 yda (29th)
= Outsiders: +15.1% team (8th), +22.9% off (2nd), +5.0% def (23rd), -2.8% st (25th)
Offense: No offense in the NFL had a more volatile season than the Eagles. They were first dominant after their first game, then high-powered but ultra-turnover prone in their three game losing streak. Then, after Vick went down, they were at first terrible, getting just 3 points on offense in a two-game losing streak that put them at 3-5. Of course, Nick Foles healed up from a concussion the next week and then started playing out of his mind. The offensive design is nice. It works. Not in the same way it worked at Oregon, but the pace and the run blocking scheme is awesome. Foles is what made it work, though. The drive stats actually show some holes in the Eagles offense, like average red zone production, and being merely 8th in yards per drive. But they rarely punt, and rarely turn it over with Foles. Chances are Nick Foles isn't the Greatest QB Ever and his INT% with regress towards something closer to the mean, but he is incredibly safe with the ball. What the Eagles really have is that run game, though. Top ranked by DVOA, the Eagles run game was stellar even when the QB was Michael Vick. Shady McCoy elevated his game when Vick left and the threat of a QB run went down. If there is any major weakness of the Eagles offense it is Nick Foles propensity to take sacks. But a sack is better than a pick everytime. Rank: 2nd
Defense: The Eagles defense started out pathetic, and while it improved the improved made them merely bad. Their strengths are defined, with the 12th ranked rush defense by DVOA. They force a lot of turnovers, ranking in the Top-10 in both interceptions and fumbles forced per drive. The biggest issue with the Eagles defense is their inability to get off the field. They are among the bottom five in least three and outs forced and least punts forced. Some of this could be explained by having the quickest offense in the NFL, making the Eagles have to be on the field a long time. This could hurt them as their offensive ability gets less pronounced in shorter games, much like the one against Dallas last Sunday. The Eagles have one top edge rusher in Trent Cole, but after him is a mix of players that pitched in 3-5 sacks. Mychal Kendricks is among them, but his overall pass rush was quite poor. The corners get penalized a lot, and can give up completions, but rarely give up big plays and do make a lot themselves. Overall, the Eagles won't win any game because of their defense, but at least the defense is making it so the offense doesn't have to put up 30+ to win a game. Rank: 5th
QB: Nicholas L. Foles himself didn't start out so hot. His third game against Dallas was putrid, going 11-29. Of course, he then continued his ways and didn't throw an interception until a game in a blizzard. Foles low pick number is an abberation, as guys like Damon Huard in 2005, or David Garrard in 2007 proved. However, when you watch him he rarely throws into coverage and risks interception. His one fault is a lack of pocket awareness, and that could be a major problem given the pass rush prowess of many of the NFC playoff teams. Rank: 4th
Coach: Chipolas Kelly seems like a much better coach with Nick Foles than he did with Michael Vick. Strange how that works, huh? In honesty, the real great part about his offense is the play design on run calls. The run game that the Eagles use is the best in the league. Kelly has proven to be aggressive at the right times as well. A solid coach. I was wrong about him, I'll admit. Of course, the coaching staffs in the NFC are loaded with playoff experience, so it is hard to rate the Eagles to highly here. Rank: 6th
2.) Carolina Panthers (12-4 = 366-241)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 366 ptf (18th), 241 pta (2nd), +125 pd (4th), 5,069 ydf (26th), 4,820 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +24.9% team (3rd), +8.1% off (10th), -15.7% def (3rd), +1.0% st (13th)
Offense: The Panthers do have problems moving the ball at times, especially without Steve Smith on the field. I'm judging them on the idea Smith plays in the Divisional Round, which of course could easily not happen. He's such a key member of that offense though. The run game still rules Carolina. They ranked #4 in rush DVOA, and that is not all on Cam Newton, as he ranked just 6th for QBs in rushing DYAR (and 23rd in DVOA), but both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert had nice seasons. They rarely get stuffed, are great at picking up short yardage and extending drives, two important things given how their offense doesn't get consistency in the pass game. The receivers aren't necessarily bad, but just don't have any special qualities. Lafell is their most consistent wideout outside of Smith, but his lack of top end speed makes him easy to take away. The Panthers rely often on Greg Olsen, which is fine since Olsen is really good. The Panthers are good in the red zone and don't turn the ball over too much, two great strengths in the playoffs, especially since the Seahawks have a defense that does both of those things well. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Panthers defense has been special for most of the year. If they have a weakness, it is one everyone knows. Their secondary is not great, which is purely a personnel issue. Drayton Florence, for his age, had a good year in the secondary, and Captain Munnerlyn has done well adjusting to playing more outside, but if they don't get home in their pass rush, they can be thrown on. Well, luckily for the Panthers they have the best pass rush in the NFL. They became the first team since the 2006 Chargers (62) and Ravens (61) to have 60 or more sacks. Hardy and Johnson have 26 of those, but the other 34 are spread out ridiculously well. The most anyone else has is 4. They just get pressure from everywhere and blitz exceedingly well. Credit Ron Rivera's scheme for that, using both Mike Mitchell and Quintin Mikell as blitzers very effectively. They are top-3 in both takeaways and red zone defense, and force more field goals for every TD than any team in the NFL. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the playoffs. They also have linebackers who can cover TEs, which is great in a conference where three NFC playoff teams use their TEs a lot (San Fran, New Orleans, Seattle), and they are amazing on screens. Oh, and they employ Luke Kuechly. Rank: 2nd
QB: Cam Newton still has to work on his accuracy issues, but he was stronger in the pocket this year. He didn't run quite as quickly, and used his Roethlisberger frame to stay upright and have some great escapes. He combines the size of Big Ben with the athleticism of Russell Wilson, which is absolutely terrifying. I really think he would have very good conventional numbers with a better cast of wideouts, but that is hopefully what future drafts will help prove. Rank: 5th
Coach: I really marvel at the job Ron Rivera has done in Carolina. He took over a team where their first year they had the worst defense in the NFL. By year two, they were a good defense. By year three, they are a great one, and they still have pieces to add in the secondary. What merits greater mention is Rivera's change in attitude towards 4th down, and it's worked spectacularly for them. I still don't trust Mike Shula, though. Rank: 4th
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3 = 417-231)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 231 pta (1st), +186 pd (2nd), 5,424 ydf (17th), 4,378 yda (1st)
= Outsiders: +40.1% team (1st), +9.4% off (7th), -25.8% def (1st), +4.8% st (5th)
Offense: The run game remains the identity of the Seahawks, and for good reason. One of just three teams to run more than they passed, the Seahawks were able to get another solid season from Marshawn Lynch. He wasn't as good as some people believed, but Lynch rarely gets stuffed and gets every bit of yards his o-line gives him. Wilson doesn't have to throw too much, but he's accurate, can throw on the run, and uses every bit of separation his receivers give him. His connection with Golden Tate improved in bounds this year to the point that Tate is now very underrated. Doug Baldwin also had a nice year, and Jermaine Kearse did well picking up the slack after Sidney Rice went down for they year. The O-Line has had some very public problems, especially in their loss to Arizona and near loss to St. Louis. Wilson took 44 sacks this season, and given his dropbacks that is a giant amount. Some of it is on Wilson, but a lot is on that o-line, which hasn't really improved protection since their starters came back. In the end, the Seahawks offense does nothing great, but everything well enough to make it hard to hold them under 20. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Seahawks defense wasn't just good, they were exceptional. Their DVOA comes in as the 7th best since 1991. They were the 4th best pass defense in that period. Now, a lot of people criticize the Seahawks for getting away with a lot of holding and illegal contact, and that is probably true, but they are also just exceptional at coverage. No one better than Richard Sherman, who had another 8 interceptions this year, but even Thurmond and Maxwell, who have played more with Browner suspended, have played great. They also have the best Free Safety in the NFL. The pass rush plays a part, and while they are league average in sacks, they get pressure consistently. The Seahawks are #1 in points allowed per drive, turnovers forced per drive, interceptions per drive, and by far the best red zone defense in the league. There is nothing they do even below average and few things they do less than good. I haven't delved into this part of Football Outsiders' defense stats yet, but I feel like it is appropriate with Seattle. They rank no lower than 7th in DVOA defending #1 receivers, #2 recievers, all other wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Not much else really needs to be said. Rank: 1st
QB: Russell Wilson may seem better this year, but he actually had the same season. Like almost literally the same. He completed five more passes this year than lost, on 14 more attempts. He had 26 TDs each year, and had one fewer interception this season. He did throw for 200 more yards, but he also took 11 more sacks. Even rushing, he was charted with two more runs this year than last. Wilson is really good, but he can be contained, especially if you can cover deep. Rank: 3rd
Coach: Pete Carroll's third go around in the NFL has gone better than anyone could have imagined. His young team is receptive to his rah-rah style, and Carroll has proven again that he's a much smarter football mind than anyone gave him credit for. Darrell Bevell's offense has done good work with Wilson. One criticism is Carroll's game management isn't the best I've seen, but that doesn't change the fact that few teams are more prepared or motivated. Rank: 3rd
One disclaimer: I used a lot of Football Outsiders' statistics, from DVOA and DYAR (for teams, players, units), and a lot of their drive stats. They do amazing work, and would be the first advanced analytics site I would recommend in football.
*******************************************************************************
6.) New Orleans Saints (11-5 = 414-304)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 414 ptf (10th), 304 pta (4th), +110 pd (7th), 6,391 ydf (4th), 4,891 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: +19.3% team (4th), +15.9% off (5th), -5.9% def (10th), -2.5% st (24th)
Offense: Who's the best offense in the NFC has a lot to do with where the game is. If the game is in the Superdome, then it is the Saints and no one comes close. Forget the NFC, no one comes close in the NFL. Of course, they won't be playing any home games in these playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Saints are bad. They've had trouble on the road, but on the whole, the unit is still the best in the NFC. Brees had a stellar year, cutting down on his interceptions from 2012, going from 19 to 12. He still will throw it up for grabs, and he was sacked more than normal, but few are better. The o-line was decent in run blocking, with Mark Ingram having his first good year in his three-year career. Obviously, much of their offensive production comes from their two matchup nightmares: Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles. Both have dealt with injuries at various times this year, but each are close to uncoverable. The screen game is a large part of the offense, but their effectiveness on screens were far, far better at home. The Saints rarely have drives that end in punts, but they do struggle relatively speaking in the red zone, a problem that manifests itself against the better defense higher up the NFC food chain. Rank: 1st
Defense: All year long I've waited for the Rob Ryan defense to crumble like all his previous defenses did, and it never happened. I have to give him credit, his defense did a wonderful job all year long. They had two notable bad moments, giving up last second drives to both New England and Carolina to lose close games, but that doesn't come close to outweighing all the positives. This version of the Saints defense is really unlike the 2009 version. This one can rush the passer better than all but like three teams in the NFL. Both Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette excelled in Rob Ryan's scheme, posting 12.5 and 12.0 sacks. No one else had even 5, but so many different players chipped in. One thing I notice is that while he's aggressive in the amount of secondary blitzes he calls, he usually covers them behind pretty well. The Saints rush defense is not really good, and they don't create turnovers (a staple of the 2009 unit). One of the strangest drive stats I uncovered was that they lead the NFL in percentage of drives forcing three-and-outs, which is stunning. That's how they end up with the #4 ranking in yards allowed. Trouble could always be brewing in a Rob Ryan defense, but for now it's chugging along nicely. Rank: 3rd
QB: Like always, Drew Brees threw for 5,000 yards. For the third year in a row he broke the previous record of 5,084 yards. He also had 39 TDs, a passer rating of 104.7. Brees was #3 in the NFL in both DYAR and DVOA for full-season QBs. Brees threw shorter more than usual, but some of that is due to his protection, as Brees took more sacks than he ever has before. That all said, he still remains a future Hall of Fame QB playing really well. Rank: 1st
Coach: Sean Payton returned. That's all people care about. They assume everything magically came together again. Of course, the Saints offense was arguably better last year. The only improvement made was a decrease in turnovers. It's the defense that made this team a playoff team this year. Rob Ryan has done a great job being creative in using his personnel. Payton, however, does remain aggressive and smart in time management. Rank: 2nd
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4 = 406-272)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 406 ptf (11th), 272 pta (3rd), +134 pd (3rd), 5,180 ydf (24th), 5,071 yda (5th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (6th),+9.1% off (8th), -4.6% def (13th), +3.7% st (7th)
Offense: The 49ers gained more than 400 yards in a game one time this season. That was in Week 1, when Kaepernick threw for 400 yards and it seemed like he would fulfill the wishes of Ron Jaworski. Then, the 49ers became an average offense with multiple-game stretches of awful play. They didn't crack 200 yards in their last two losses (back to back games home to Carolina and at New Orleans). The passing offense definitely improved after the return of Michael Crabtree, but it isn't like they are now a dynamic one. The run game is still excellently designed, allowing Frank Gore to have more production than anyone could have imagined at 30. Vernon Davis had another nice season as well. The 49ers do a couple things really well. The first is a lack of turnovers, something that has been a constant throughout the Jim Harbaugh era. The other is good red zone production, which is in a way surprising giving some of their overall struggles to move the ball. That's where the effective run game comes into play, I guess. The 49ers have shown an ability to dominate bad teams, but they've struggled against any good offense they've played. Rank: 6th
Defense: The 49ers defense, much like their offense, beat up on bad teams. They can swallow up marginal offense easily. Their defesive corp has stayed healthy all season long, and it shows in their simple, but brilliantly effective style. NaVarro Bowman had an awesome year at inside backer, and Patrick Willis remains Patrick Willis. Their pass rush actually didn't drop that much during Aldon Smith's stint in rehab, but it is definitely better having him around than not. The quiet little secret about the 49ers, though, is their average secondary play this year. Losing Dashon Goldson was big, even if Eric Reid has done a nice job at FS. Carlos Rogers had another good year, but the depth didn't play as well as it has in the past. Teams can throw on the 49ers, especially if their pass rush is not pushing the pocket. It still really comes down to the play of Justin Smith. His interior presence makes that pass rush, and consequently, pass defense work. Rank: 4th
QB: Colin Kaepernick has some good strengths. He's pretty careful with the ball, he can throw well on the run, he has the threat to run on any play. There's also some bad weaknesses. He struggles to throw to covered receivers, which is a problem at times with receivers who don't always get separation. He takes off too soon and is slow in his progressions. Kaepernick definitely didn't improve in his 2nd year as a starting QB, but he's still dynamic. Rank: 6th
Coach: The Harbaugh-Roman-Fangio trio has been in place for three years, and has led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record. This is despite having average skill position talent and two starting QBs. Harbaugh's offense will never dominate good defenses, but it is ruthlessly effective. The defense is the same, and Fangio has done a good job scheming pressure instead of just relying on Aldon Smith. Even in game management the Harbaugh Group excels. Rank: 1st
4.) Green Bay Packers (8-7-1 = 417-428)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 428 pta (24th), -11 pd (16th), 6,404 ydf (3rd), 5,956 yda (25th)
= Outsiders: -6.2% team (21st), +8.6% off (9th), +14.4% def (31st), -0.4% st (19th)
Offense: It is hard to really judge what the Packers offense is. Obviously, looking at their yearly numbers don't really help because half the season was played by Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzein and Matt Flynn. Rodgers had another stellar season when he was healthy, but he definitely looked a bit rusty last Sunday. The offense as a whole is not as explosive as the Packers were in previous years, largely because James Jones hasn't had the season he normally has, and Randall Cobb missed a bunch of games. Cobb too is back now, and he definitely looked fully healthy against Chicago. The run game was a big story all year long for Green Bay. They finished the year with the 3rd best rushing DVOA in the NFL. The o-line, despite injuries, had its best year in a while in pass protection too. It is hard to really judge this, but the Packers offense, while not as good as it was in 2011-12, is still a top unit. Rank: 3rd
Defense: Hiding behind the near fall of the Packers due to backup QBs was their defense which hasn't played well all season long. DVOA put them as the 2nd worst defense in the NFL, and unlike the Chargers, that translated into giving up a boatload of points. The Packers do nothing particularly well other than cause fumbles (which they had a hard time of recovering). The Pass Defense in the Capers era has alternated between strong, terrible but takeaway prone, and just terrible, with its nadir coming this year. The pass defense numbers were worse in 2011, but at least that season they had a habit of intercepting a ball or two a game. That hasn't happened this year at all. The Packers secondary has really never recovered from losing Nick Collins years ago. The pass rush struggled with Clay Matthews out, and now he's out again. AJ Hawk had a nice year as a blitzing inside-backer, and Mike Daniels had a breakout season as well. None of these people resemble a healthy Clay Matthews, though. The Packers have a good offense, and they'll need it. Sadly, it seems more and more like the Packers will basically do what the Manning era Colts did, combine a great offense and an awesome QB with a terrible defense. Rank: 6th
QB: Aaron Rodgers is very good. That much is obvious. He ended up 10th in DVOA despite missing half the year. If he held that value over 16 games, he would have been 4th in the league. He still takes too many sacks, and he tries to fit balls into tight windows more than he should, but as a rare QB who has the zip to make most of those throws, it works a lot of the time. He was rusty on Sunday, and was definitely looking less to run with the threat of a repeat injury. Still, he's about as good as any QB in the NFL. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike McCarthy has become a controversial figure because of his inability to use timeouts, challenges and good 4th down judgement. Of course, he's also a great playcaller, capable of utilizing all of the receivers in distinct, effective ways. That part in the end is more important. On the other side, Dom Capers hasn't been able to show that adaptive nature, as his defense fails miserably when top-end talent leaves or gets injured. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note:
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 = 442-382)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 442 ptf (4th), 382 pta (17th), +60 pd (9th), 6,6706 ydf (2nd), 6,307 yda (29th)
= Outsiders: +15.1% team (8th), +22.9% off (2nd), +5.0% def (23rd), -2.8% st (25th)
Offense: No offense in the NFL had a more volatile season than the Eagles. They were first dominant after their first game, then high-powered but ultra-turnover prone in their three game losing streak. Then, after Vick went down, they were at first terrible, getting just 3 points on offense in a two-game losing streak that put them at 3-5. Of course, Nick Foles healed up from a concussion the next week and then started playing out of his mind. The offensive design is nice. It works. Not in the same way it worked at Oregon, but the pace and the run blocking scheme is awesome. Foles is what made it work, though. The drive stats actually show some holes in the Eagles offense, like average red zone production, and being merely 8th in yards per drive. But they rarely punt, and rarely turn it over with Foles. Chances are Nick Foles isn't the Greatest QB Ever and his INT% with regress towards something closer to the mean, but he is incredibly safe with the ball. What the Eagles really have is that run game, though. Top ranked by DVOA, the Eagles run game was stellar even when the QB was Michael Vick. Shady McCoy elevated his game when Vick left and the threat of a QB run went down. If there is any major weakness of the Eagles offense it is Nick Foles propensity to take sacks. But a sack is better than a pick everytime. Rank: 2nd
Defense: The Eagles defense started out pathetic, and while it improved the improved made them merely bad. Their strengths are defined, with the 12th ranked rush defense by DVOA. They force a lot of turnovers, ranking in the Top-10 in both interceptions and fumbles forced per drive. The biggest issue with the Eagles defense is their inability to get off the field. They are among the bottom five in least three and outs forced and least punts forced. Some of this could be explained by having the quickest offense in the NFL, making the Eagles have to be on the field a long time. This could hurt them as their offensive ability gets less pronounced in shorter games, much like the one against Dallas last Sunday. The Eagles have one top edge rusher in Trent Cole, but after him is a mix of players that pitched in 3-5 sacks. Mychal Kendricks is among them, but his overall pass rush was quite poor. The corners get penalized a lot, and can give up completions, but rarely give up big plays and do make a lot themselves. Overall, the Eagles won't win any game because of their defense, but at least the defense is making it so the offense doesn't have to put up 30+ to win a game. Rank: 5th
QB: Nicholas L. Foles himself didn't start out so hot. His third game against Dallas was putrid, going 11-29. Of course, he then continued his ways and didn't throw an interception until a game in a blizzard. Foles low pick number is an abberation, as guys like Damon Huard in 2005, or David Garrard in 2007 proved. However, when you watch him he rarely throws into coverage and risks interception. His one fault is a lack of pocket awareness, and that could be a major problem given the pass rush prowess of many of the NFC playoff teams. Rank: 4th
Coach: Chipolas Kelly seems like a much better coach with Nick Foles than he did with Michael Vick. Strange how that works, huh? In honesty, the real great part about his offense is the play design on run calls. The run game that the Eagles use is the best in the league. Kelly has proven to be aggressive at the right times as well. A solid coach. I was wrong about him, I'll admit. Of course, the coaching staffs in the NFC are loaded with playoff experience, so it is hard to rate the Eagles to highly here. Rank: 6th
2.) Carolina Panthers (12-4 = 366-241)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 366 ptf (18th), 241 pta (2nd), +125 pd (4th), 5,069 ydf (26th), 4,820 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: +24.9% team (3rd), +8.1% off (10th), -15.7% def (3rd), +1.0% st (13th)
Offense: The Panthers do have problems moving the ball at times, especially without Steve Smith on the field. I'm judging them on the idea Smith plays in the Divisional Round, which of course could easily not happen. He's such a key member of that offense though. The run game still rules Carolina. They ranked #4 in rush DVOA, and that is not all on Cam Newton, as he ranked just 6th for QBs in rushing DYAR (and 23rd in DVOA), but both DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert had nice seasons. They rarely get stuffed, are great at picking up short yardage and extending drives, two important things given how their offense doesn't get consistency in the pass game. The receivers aren't necessarily bad, but just don't have any special qualities. Lafell is their most consistent wideout outside of Smith, but his lack of top end speed makes him easy to take away. The Panthers rely often on Greg Olsen, which is fine since Olsen is really good. The Panthers are good in the red zone and don't turn the ball over too much, two great strengths in the playoffs, especially since the Seahawks have a defense that does both of those things well. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Panthers defense has been special for most of the year. If they have a weakness, it is one everyone knows. Their secondary is not great, which is purely a personnel issue. Drayton Florence, for his age, had a good year in the secondary, and Captain Munnerlyn has done well adjusting to playing more outside, but if they don't get home in their pass rush, they can be thrown on. Well, luckily for the Panthers they have the best pass rush in the NFL. They became the first team since the 2006 Chargers (62) and Ravens (61) to have 60 or more sacks. Hardy and Johnson have 26 of those, but the other 34 are spread out ridiculously well. The most anyone else has is 4. They just get pressure from everywhere and blitz exceedingly well. Credit Ron Rivera's scheme for that, using both Mike Mitchell and Quintin Mikell as blitzers very effectively. They are top-3 in both takeaways and red zone defense, and force more field goals for every TD than any team in the NFL. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the playoffs. They also have linebackers who can cover TEs, which is great in a conference where three NFC playoff teams use their TEs a lot (San Fran, New Orleans, Seattle), and they are amazing on screens. Oh, and they employ Luke Kuechly. Rank: 2nd
QB: Cam Newton still has to work on his accuracy issues, but he was stronger in the pocket this year. He didn't run quite as quickly, and used his Roethlisberger frame to stay upright and have some great escapes. He combines the size of Big Ben with the athleticism of Russell Wilson, which is absolutely terrifying. I really think he would have very good conventional numbers with a better cast of wideouts, but that is hopefully what future drafts will help prove. Rank: 5th
Coach: I really marvel at the job Ron Rivera has done in Carolina. He took over a team where their first year they had the worst defense in the NFL. By year two, they were a good defense. By year three, they are a great one, and they still have pieces to add in the secondary. What merits greater mention is Rivera's change in attitude towards 4th down, and it's worked spectacularly for them. I still don't trust Mike Shula, though. Rank: 4th
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3 = 417-231)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 417 ptf (8th), 231 pta (1st), +186 pd (2nd), 5,424 ydf (17th), 4,378 yda (1st)
= Outsiders: +40.1% team (1st), +9.4% off (7th), -25.8% def (1st), +4.8% st (5th)
Offense: The run game remains the identity of the Seahawks, and for good reason. One of just three teams to run more than they passed, the Seahawks were able to get another solid season from Marshawn Lynch. He wasn't as good as some people believed, but Lynch rarely gets stuffed and gets every bit of yards his o-line gives him. Wilson doesn't have to throw too much, but he's accurate, can throw on the run, and uses every bit of separation his receivers give him. His connection with Golden Tate improved in bounds this year to the point that Tate is now very underrated. Doug Baldwin also had a nice year, and Jermaine Kearse did well picking up the slack after Sidney Rice went down for they year. The O-Line has had some very public problems, especially in their loss to Arizona and near loss to St. Louis. Wilson took 44 sacks this season, and given his dropbacks that is a giant amount. Some of it is on Wilson, but a lot is on that o-line, which hasn't really improved protection since their starters came back. In the end, the Seahawks offense does nothing great, but everything well enough to make it hard to hold them under 20. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Seahawks defense wasn't just good, they were exceptional. Their DVOA comes in as the 7th best since 1991. They were the 4th best pass defense in that period. Now, a lot of people criticize the Seahawks for getting away with a lot of holding and illegal contact, and that is probably true, but they are also just exceptional at coverage. No one better than Richard Sherman, who had another 8 interceptions this year, but even Thurmond and Maxwell, who have played more with Browner suspended, have played great. They also have the best Free Safety in the NFL. The pass rush plays a part, and while they are league average in sacks, they get pressure consistently. The Seahawks are #1 in points allowed per drive, turnovers forced per drive, interceptions per drive, and by far the best red zone defense in the league. There is nothing they do even below average and few things they do less than good. I haven't delved into this part of Football Outsiders' defense stats yet, but I feel like it is appropriate with Seattle. They rank no lower than 7th in DVOA defending #1 receivers, #2 recievers, all other wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Not much else really needs to be said. Rank: 1st
QB: Russell Wilson may seem better this year, but he actually had the same season. Like almost literally the same. He completed five more passes this year than lost, on 14 more attempts. He had 26 TDs each year, and had one fewer interception this season. He did throw for 200 more yards, but he also took 11 more sacks. Even rushing, he was charted with two more runs this year than last. Wilson is really good, but he can be contained, especially if you can cover deep. Rank: 3rd
Coach: Pete Carroll's third go around in the NFL has gone better than anyone could have imagined. His young team is receptive to his rah-rah style, and Carroll has proven again that he's a much smarter football mind than anyone gave him credit for. Darrell Bevell's offense has done good work with Wilson. One criticism is Carroll's game management isn't the best I've seen, but that doesn't change the fact that few teams are more prepared or motivated. Rank: 3rd
