6.) San Diego Chargers (9-7 = 396-348)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 396 ptf (12th), 348 pta (11th), +48 pd (12th), 6,293 ydf (5th), 5,864 yda (23rd)
= Outsiders: +5.8% team (12th), +22.5% off (3rd), +17.5% def (32nd), +0.8% st (15th)
Offense: The Chargers offense is really good. It may not look that way on paper, because none of their volume stats are that amazing. Their yardage total is Top-5, bit they only finished 12th in scoring. Some of this has to do with their average performance in the red zone, but most of it is pace and shortage of drives. The Chargers led the NFL in yards per drive. They led the NFL in fewest 3-and-outs as a percentage of total drives. They just perfected having long, clock-killing drives. Too many of them ended in 3 rather than 7, but shortening the game is an effective strategy for a team looking to hide its inferior defense. Despite having an average O-Line at best, the Chargers had an effective running game. He wasn't great, but Ryan Mathews had the best year of his career running the ball. The real talent, though, of the Chargers was their passing game. 2nd in the league in efficiency, the Chargers were awesome through the air. Philip Rivers did a great Tom Brady circa 2010 impression, utilizing short routes to have an absurdly high completion percentage. He even used Brady's version of Rivers' version of Sproles, in Danny Woodhead, who had a 78-catch year. The Chargers are really good on offense. Rank: 2nd
Defense: It's good that the Chargers are really good on offense, because they are quite bad on defense. I think Football Outsiders is undervaluing them a bit ranking them 32nd on defense. They don't seem that bad. But they really aren't that much better. All the things that they are so good at on offense, they are bad at on defense. They give up the 3rd most yards per drive, and force the 4th fewest three-and-outs. The red zone defense is below average. They just don't have enough capable players outside of Eric Weddle and Corey Liuget. The rest of their secondary is made up of a mix of castoffs and young, unproven mid-round draft picks. The other two levels have no real players of note. They have to rely on scheme to really shut teams down. Scheme and their offense limiting the amount of time the Chargers defense has to spend on the field. That said, they limited the Bengals to 17, the Colts to 9 and the Broncos to a season-low 20. Of course, they just let a Chiefs offense led by Chase Daniel and Kniles Davis to drop 24. Rank: 6th
QB: Philip Rivers, welcome back to the Elite. I predicted Rivers would have a bounce-back season in 2012 after an underratedly solid 2011 season. That didn't happen, as Rivers played worse, looking like an old, prematurely washed-up version of himself. Then, he got some new coaches, got a Sproles-like player back, and a great rookie WR to throw to, and he became the 2nd best QB in the NFL in 2013. Philip Rivers wasn't just good, he was great, and he was great behind an average at best O-Line, and losing his top two receivers from the preseason. First 2012 breakout Dennario Alexander tore his ACL, then Malcolm Floyd suffered a scary back/neck/head injury in Week 2 against Philadelphia. What did Rivers do? Just lead the NFL in completion percentage, and finish 3rd in passer rating (and 2nd if you take away Foles), 2nd in DYAR and DVOA by Football Outsiders. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike McCoy's real skill was making an offense led by Tim Tebow into a functional unit. It seems that many people can coordinate for Peyton Manning as McCoy did in 2012, but only one man could for Tebow. McCoy helped Rivers resurrect that career. He was also very aggressive, and used his timeouts well. He has two good coordinators by his side also. It's obviously his first time in the playoffs, but his coordinator led a similar 9-7 team with a ressurected QB to the Super Bowl five years ago. Rank: 4th
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 = 430-305)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,396 ydf (21st), 5,885 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (7th), +2.8% off (15th), -6.7% def (13th), +7.8% st (1st)
Offense: The Chiefs offense is good. The six-best offenses in the AFC made the playoffs, and the Chiefs are one of those 6. However, to me they are the 2nd-wrst of those 6. Now, I don't think they are the worst offense of all the playoff teams. I think they have a more reliable offense against good competition than San Francisco, but that's probably moot. The Chiefs are a strange team on offense. They punt a lot - 3rd most punts per drive in the NFL. However, whenever they do move the ball, good things happen. They ranked 5th in Red Zone TD%. They rarely turn it over. Alex Smith's aversion to interceptions definitely came with him to Kansas City. They have the 2nd best running back in the NFL, who also provides a dynamic receiving option. They also have a backup running back that provides a dynamic receiving option. They are better than people think at picking up chunk yardage, and Andy Reid can utilize anyone at his disposal. Rank: 5th.
Defense: Lost in the Chiefs offensive explosion late in the season, save for the Colts loss, was the fall of their once-proud defense. They still have a good defense, and a very good pass defense that ranked 7th by DVOA, but their run defense is below average, and that pass rush which had 35 sacks in its first 7 games, on pace for an NFL record of 80, had just 12 in the last 9 games. Some of that is injury, and those guys are back and healthy now, but the real mystery has been the strange mid-season decline of Dontari Poe. Maybe he's never adjusted to being offenses focal point when Hali and Houston were banged up? The NFC actually has the three-best defense in the playoffs, so even with their slow finish to the season, the Chiefs are a good defense in AFC terms. They just aren't nearly as good as they were when they were playing a string of backups. The results got better when they weren't playing Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, but it is those types of guys that are alive at this point. Rank: 2nd
QB: Alex Smith has started and won playoff games before, which puts him more in the 'playoff winner' category than Andy Dalton or Andrew Luck. Of course, Smith isn't really as good as those players in totality, but has skills that is better than them. He's more careful with the football. He's more accurate than those two. He doesn't have the arm of either, but he can use it well. The problem is the AFC has some good QBs in the playoffs. Smith might not be able to win a game by himself, but he's closer to doing so than people believe: Rank: 6th
Coach: Andy Reid has coached a lot of playoff games, and though he's also lost a lot of playoff games, few are hard to really pin on him. His offenses were disastrous in their losses in 2002 and 2003, but after that all their losses were either close or big losses to Dallas. Reid has also won a lot of playoff games. The defensive coordinator Bob Sutton hasn't looked as good recently, but he's done a good job making a roster with good talent into a very good unit. Rank: 2nd
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 391-336)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 391 pta (14th), 336 pta (9th), +55 pd (10th), 5,468 ydf (15th), 5,713 yda (20th)
= Outsiders: +3.4% team (13th), +4.2% off (13th), +0.8% def (16th), -0.1% st (17th)
Offense: The Colts offense really had three periods in this season. The first was before the Wayne injury, when the Colts had a good passing offense that was being limited by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. Then was the period right after Wayne's injury, when they had a mediocre passing offense that was being supplemented by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. That period had some horrible losses to St. Louis and Arizona. Finally was the final period, when they effectively benched Heyward-Bey and Richardson, and became a good passing offense with an average running game that they weren't addicted to. I have no idea which of the post-Wayne offenses will appear in the playoffs, but even the final version had a hard time scoring more than 25 points against average defenses. Andrew Luck has little to work with right now, and definitely started playing better later in the season, but he still too innacurate and too sturdy in the pocket. The run game has come alive relatively after Richardson's benching, but Brown quieted down in Week 17. The Colts don't have anything more than a nice solid offense that does nothing particularly well aside from never fumble. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Colts defense has two qualities that are good. First, they have Robert Mathis, who had led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 despite having no one else on the team have more than 5. Mathis was dominant all season long. The Colts also force a lot of fumbles on defense. Other than that, they are decidedly mediocre. They have one corner in Vontae Davis that alternates between great and terrible. Their safety play is very inconsistent. Jerrell Freeman and Cory Redding each had nice season, but are surrounded by people who had average seasons. What is nice for the Colts is they aren't particularly bad at anything, just average at a lot of things. A lot of their success is due to the schemes of Chuck Pagano and Defensive Coordiator John Manusky. Scheme only goes so far though. Rank: 5th.
QB: Andrew Luck definitely was better in his 2nd season, but probably not as much better as people think. The stats on him that really improved were partly due to a scheme change. He threw shorter far more this year than last year in Arians' scheme. That's largely why is Y/A dropped, but his sack rate and int rate improved so much. His completion percentage rise was also due to this. What hurts Luck is the part that isn't explained by this change: why is completion percentage is 60.2%. That isn't good in the modern NFL in any scheme. Too often he throws too high or too late. This should get better over time, but could hurt the Colts chances in 2013. Rank: 5th
Coach: I am in two minds about the Colts coaching staff. On the defensive side, I think the staff does a great job of preparing and scheming that defense. Their stats are better than their talent would indicated. Most of their defensive success apart from Robert Mathis comes from scheme. That said, the offensive side is a mess. Their strange love for Smash-Mouth football despite no evidence they can play that way is maddening. Finally, on the game management side the Colts need improvement. Pagano is way too conservative, something that could kill this team. Rank: 6th
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5 = 430-305)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,894 ydf (10th), 4,888 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +14.5% team (9th), +0.5% off (17th), -12.7% def (5th), +1.3% st (12th)
Offense: The Bengals are a more silent version of the Saints and Seahawks, in that they are far better playing at home than on the road. They finished 8-0 at home. Most of their home dominance was defensive (even aiding their point total, as they scored a slew of defensive TDs at home), but some was offensive as well. They put up 49-41-42-42 points in four striaght home games before 34 (27 offensive) against Baltimore in Week 17. The Bengals in a way resemble a better form of last year's Ravens. I said about them before the playoffs that they were a better than good offense in terms of what they could be, and this is the same. Dalton may have 20 interceptions, but most came in a handful of games (10 against Baltimore twice and Miami). AJ Green is still dominant. Marvin Jones solidified himself as a solid #2. They have two TEs that make plays and a slew of other receivers who have pretty defined roles. Their running game isn't great, but is consistent. It rarely gets stuffed and converts short yardage. If Dalton improves going forward, this could be a Top-5-7 offense. For right now, they are a good offense, especially at home. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Bengals have lost their two best defenders for the year with injuries back in midseason. First Leon Hall went down, and in their next game Geno Atkins went down. However, they really haven't fallen off too far since then. Their secondary was the deepest in the NFL before Hall went down, and remains a solid unit that can go 3-5 deep. Their defensive line was deep before Atkins went down and remains with a solid rotation. This year it was Carlos Dunlap and Wallace Gilberry picking up the slack with 15 sacks between them. The linebacker crew is also quite deep, but there was no standout, lost to injury or otherwise. Vincent Rey had a really nice season. Cincinnati's defense is still very good. The led the NFL in Drive Success Rate on defense. They were Top-5 in fewest Yards Allowed, Points Allowed, TDs Allowed per drive, and Top-5 in most punts and three-and-outs force per drive. Their red-zone defense is solidly in the Top-10. Considering the injuries, it is amazing how good the Bengals defense stayed. Rank: 1st
QB: Andy Dalton had 33 TD passes this year. That is good. He had 20 INTs, which is bad. What is the real Dalton? I don't really know. To me, he's a more high-variance version of Joe Flacco. He can be better than Flacco. He can easily win games for you. He can also be worse than Flacco, and throw three or four picks. Now, 10 of his 20 INTs came against his divisional rivals, and in his biggest games he had few picks. Dalton was thoroughly mediocre in DVOA (18th), but that is what happens when you have some awful games and some very good ones. Rank: 4th
Coach: Marvin Lewis rewarded Mike Brown's patience and has turned the Bengals into one of the better-run franchises in the NFL. They have drafted well and developed well over the years. His staff has also done a great job adjusting to injuries and personnel. Jay Gruden's offense has deftly added two rookies to the mix and used the receivers well. The real star, though, is Mike Zimmer, who's defense has survived losing a pro-bowl corner and all-pro tackle, and still been a Top-5 unit. The only fault is Marvin Lewis's terrible use of timeouts (though he is aggresive). Rank: 3rd
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 444-338)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 444 ptf (3rd), 338 pta (10th), +106 pd (8th), 6,152 ydf (7th), 5,969 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: +19.0% team (5th), +16.5% off (4th), +4.1% def (21st), +6.7% st (2nd)
Offense: The Patriots are a different offense without Rob Gronkowski. That much is obvious. How different, though? Well, early in the season they were also missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola for a number of those games and the results were bad. Before Gronkowski's initial return the Patriots were an average offense by DVOA, and Tom Brady had completely below-average stats and had a DVOA below zero. Then, with Gronkowski, they were the highest scoring offense in the NFL in that period. Then Gronk went out again, but the other guys were there, and they were a good but not great offense for four games. The numbers look nice but Brady's numbers without Gronk aren't great in the past three games. The O-line is shuffled but good as always, and the three-headed RB-by-committee has worked. They're nowhere near what they were from 2010-2012, but going into the playoffs, they are better than the 2009 unit for sure. And given how average they were looking early in the season, the Patriots have ended up 3rd in the NFL in scoring, and Top-10 in yards, tds and avoiding-three-and-outs per drive. The one area of concern in red zone efficiency, which is above average with Gronkowski, but well below without him. Rank: 3rd
Defense: The Patriots, like the Bengals, lost their two best players in Wilfork and Mayo. Unlike the Bengals, their defense has slipped. Before the Mayo injury, they were close top Top-10 by DVOA, and they ended 21st. They've entered an interesting place where seemingly they can only defend the run or the pass each week, but rarely both (unless you are Baltimore and can't do either yourself). Take the Broncos win, where they totally played to stop the pass, but couldn't touch the run. Or Carolina, which was the reverse. The pass defense is still aggressive at times, but they're starting to play more zone to hide their big but slow linebackers. What the Patriots do really well is rush the passer. Quietly, they picked up 48 sacks. Now, sacks were way up league-wide, but 48 is still good for 6th. Their defense is really good at stopping 4th downs, which gives them a good overall points per drive despite not being great at keeping teams out of the end zone. Belichick schemes them well, but they have less talent this year than any, even in 2011. Rank: 4th
QB: Tom Brady did not have a good year for his standards, especially in games where Rob Gronkowski did not play. I don't care how much people try to explain thing away, that he had no one to throw to, that he had a bad o-line. Well, Philip Rivers also lost his top two targets from the offseason. Brady barely completed 60 percent of his passes. He had a y/a under 7. He had a QB rating under 90. None of these things are good. Of course, he's still Tom Brady and he was definitely better in the 2nd string of games without Gronk than he was in the 1st. Rank: 3rd
Coach: Bill Belichick and his staff are in that machine phase that the 49ers entered into in the post-Walsh era, when they had future Super Bowl winning coaches running their offense and quality guys running the defense. Now, Belichick's assistants probably aren't that good, but Bill is better than George Seifert. Belichick had some strange moments in terms of game management this year, but that offense and defense is always schemed well. They never get less than the sum of their parts. Rank: 1st
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = 606-399)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 606 ptf (1st), 399 pta (22nd), +207 pd (1st), 7,317 ydf (1st), 5,696 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +32.8% team (2nd), +33.7% off (1st), -0.2% def (15th), -1.1% st (21st)
Offense: It all begins and ends with Peyton Manning and his band of brothers. The key matchup nightmares really are Knowshon Moreno, who's proven a really capable receiver from the backfield, and Julius Thomas, who was the 2nd best TE in the NFL by DYAR. Or maybe the keys are Decker and Thomas, who were both Top-5 in DYAR for WRs. Or maybe it is Welker, who will be back after missing three games. Or really it is just Manning, who makes this whole thing work. The Broncos are actually not 1st in yards per drive, as that goes to San Diego. But they are first in TDs per drive (by a lot), fewest punts per drive, and best red zone numbers per drive. Despite some notable moments of consecutive three-and-outs, they rank as the 2nd fewest in that category as well. There is a reason this is the highest scoring offense of all time. They may not be the best offense ever, but they have the talent to be that in any one game, especially with all their main weapons back in the fold. Even their running game is good, ranking #10 in DVOA, with Moreno having a solid season, and Montee Ball getting better as the season went on. Rank: 1st
Defense: Last year the Broncos had arguably the best defense in the NFL. Then they went and crapped the bed in their playoff loss, preceded to lose Elvis Dumervil in the offseason, and Von Miller early in Week 16. Their defensive DVOA was actually Top-10 with Miller playing, but there were other guys who were also playing then but not when Miller wasn't, like Chris Harris, Wesley Woodyard, Robert Ayers (who all missed their defensive nadir, the 51-48 win over Dallas). Derek Wolfe is also expected to be back, and Champ Bailey finally seems healthy. The Denver defense has actually been pretty average round the board (which is good enough given their offense) except for one area, which is in the red zone, where they are bottom-10 in the NFL. That has to get better. The easiest way for them to ensure wins is trade 7's from their offense for 3's from the opponent. Rank: 5th
QB: There's really not more that could be said about Peyton's incredible 2013 season. By DVOA, it only comes out 8th in the DVOA era (from 1989), behind his own seasons from 2006 and 2004. However, he held that value over more throws, to have the 2nd best DYAR (behind Brady in 2007 - ahead of Manning in '04). There were three distinct periods in Manning's year. First was his first 8 games, where he was on record pace everywhere. Then, at the end of Game #9, he hurt his ankle and was limited the next three games. Then, the ankle healed up and he was awesome once again. Since the 2nd KC game, his deep ball has looked really good, which is an added bonus over Manning from 2012. Rank: 1st
Coach: The Broncos had to survive losing John Fox for 6 games to a heart procedure, but now that he is back they seem to be playing more disciplined. Fox has been far more aggressive this year in terms of 4th down and late game situations. Del Rio has done a decent job covering up for personnel issues, but too often the receivers are let open. Finally, Manning is the league's best offensive coordinator, so no real problems there. Rank: 5th
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 396 ptf (12th), 348 pta (11th), +48 pd (12th), 6,293 ydf (5th), 5,864 yda (23rd)
= Outsiders: +5.8% team (12th), +22.5% off (3rd), +17.5% def (32nd), +0.8% st (15th)
Offense: The Chargers offense is really good. It may not look that way on paper, because none of their volume stats are that amazing. Their yardage total is Top-5, bit they only finished 12th in scoring. Some of this has to do with their average performance in the red zone, but most of it is pace and shortage of drives. The Chargers led the NFL in yards per drive. They led the NFL in fewest 3-and-outs as a percentage of total drives. They just perfected having long, clock-killing drives. Too many of them ended in 3 rather than 7, but shortening the game is an effective strategy for a team looking to hide its inferior defense. Despite having an average O-Line at best, the Chargers had an effective running game. He wasn't great, but Ryan Mathews had the best year of his career running the ball. The real talent, though, of the Chargers was their passing game. 2nd in the league in efficiency, the Chargers were awesome through the air. Philip Rivers did a great Tom Brady circa 2010 impression, utilizing short routes to have an absurdly high completion percentage. He even used Brady's version of Rivers' version of Sproles, in Danny Woodhead, who had a 78-catch year. The Chargers are really good on offense. Rank: 2nd
Defense: It's good that the Chargers are really good on offense, because they are quite bad on defense. I think Football Outsiders is undervaluing them a bit ranking them 32nd on defense. They don't seem that bad. But they really aren't that much better. All the things that they are so good at on offense, they are bad at on defense. They give up the 3rd most yards per drive, and force the 4th fewest three-and-outs. The red zone defense is below average. They just don't have enough capable players outside of Eric Weddle and Corey Liuget. The rest of their secondary is made up of a mix of castoffs and young, unproven mid-round draft picks. The other two levels have no real players of note. They have to rely on scheme to really shut teams down. Scheme and their offense limiting the amount of time the Chargers defense has to spend on the field. That said, they limited the Bengals to 17, the Colts to 9 and the Broncos to a season-low 20. Of course, they just let a Chiefs offense led by Chase Daniel and Kniles Davis to drop 24. Rank: 6th
QB: Philip Rivers, welcome back to the Elite. I predicted Rivers would have a bounce-back season in 2012 after an underratedly solid 2011 season. That didn't happen, as Rivers played worse, looking like an old, prematurely washed-up version of himself. Then, he got some new coaches, got a Sproles-like player back, and a great rookie WR to throw to, and he became the 2nd best QB in the NFL in 2013. Philip Rivers wasn't just good, he was great, and he was great behind an average at best O-Line, and losing his top two receivers from the preseason. First 2012 breakout Dennario Alexander tore his ACL, then Malcolm Floyd suffered a scary back/neck/head injury in Week 2 against Philadelphia. What did Rivers do? Just lead the NFL in completion percentage, and finish 3rd in passer rating (and 2nd if you take away Foles), 2nd in DYAR and DVOA by Football Outsiders. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike McCoy's real skill was making an offense led by Tim Tebow into a functional unit. It seems that many people can coordinate for Peyton Manning as McCoy did in 2012, but only one man could for Tebow. McCoy helped Rivers resurrect that career. He was also very aggressive, and used his timeouts well. He has two good coordinators by his side also. It's obviously his first time in the playoffs, but his coordinator led a similar 9-7 team with a ressurected QB to the Super Bowl five years ago. Rank: 4th
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 = 430-305)
Stat Breakdown
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,396 ydf (21st), 5,885 yda (24th)
= Outsiders: +17.4% team (7th), +2.8% off (15th), -6.7% def (13th), +7.8% st (1st)
Offense: The Chiefs offense is good. The six-best offenses in the AFC made the playoffs, and the Chiefs are one of those 6. However, to me they are the 2nd-wrst of those 6. Now, I don't think they are the worst offense of all the playoff teams. I think they have a more reliable offense against good competition than San Francisco, but that's probably moot. The Chiefs are a strange team on offense. They punt a lot - 3rd most punts per drive in the NFL. However, whenever they do move the ball, good things happen. They ranked 5th in Red Zone TD%. They rarely turn it over. Alex Smith's aversion to interceptions definitely came with him to Kansas City. They have the 2nd best running back in the NFL, who also provides a dynamic receiving option. They also have a backup running back that provides a dynamic receiving option. They are better than people think at picking up chunk yardage, and Andy Reid can utilize anyone at his disposal. Rank: 5th.
Defense: Lost in the Chiefs offensive explosion late in the season, save for the Colts loss, was the fall of their once-proud defense. They still have a good defense, and a very good pass defense that ranked 7th by DVOA, but their run defense is below average, and that pass rush which had 35 sacks in its first 7 games, on pace for an NFL record of 80, had just 12 in the last 9 games. Some of that is injury, and those guys are back and healthy now, but the real mystery has been the strange mid-season decline of Dontari Poe. Maybe he's never adjusted to being offenses focal point when Hali and Houston were banged up? The NFC actually has the three-best defense in the playoffs, so even with their slow finish to the season, the Chiefs are a good defense in AFC terms. They just aren't nearly as good as they were when they were playing a string of backups. The results got better when they weren't playing Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, but it is those types of guys that are alive at this point. Rank: 2nd
QB: Alex Smith has started and won playoff games before, which puts him more in the 'playoff winner' category than Andy Dalton or Andrew Luck. Of course, Smith isn't really as good as those players in totality, but has skills that is better than them. He's more careful with the football. He's more accurate than those two. He doesn't have the arm of either, but he can use it well. The problem is the AFC has some good QBs in the playoffs. Smith might not be able to win a game by himself, but he's closer to doing so than people believe: Rank: 6th
Coach: Andy Reid has coached a lot of playoff games, and though he's also lost a lot of playoff games, few are hard to really pin on him. His offenses were disastrous in their losses in 2002 and 2003, but after that all their losses were either close or big losses to Dallas. Reid has also won a lot of playoff games. The defensive coordinator Bob Sutton hasn't looked as good recently, but he's done a good job making a roster with good talent into a very good unit. Rank: 2nd
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 = 391-336)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 391 pta (14th), 336 pta (9th), +55 pd (10th), 5,468 ydf (15th), 5,713 yda (20th)
= Outsiders: +3.4% team (13th), +4.2% off (13th), +0.8% def (16th), -0.1% st (17th)
Offense: The Colts offense really had three periods in this season. The first was before the Wayne injury, when the Colts had a good passing offense that was being limited by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. Then was the period right after Wayne's injury, when they had a mediocre passing offense that was being supplemented by a stupid addiction to trying to establish the run. That period had some horrible losses to St. Louis and Arizona. Finally was the final period, when they effectively benched Heyward-Bey and Richardson, and became a good passing offense with an average running game that they weren't addicted to. I have no idea which of the post-Wayne offenses will appear in the playoffs, but even the final version had a hard time scoring more than 25 points against average defenses. Andrew Luck has little to work with right now, and definitely started playing better later in the season, but he still too innacurate and too sturdy in the pocket. The run game has come alive relatively after Richardson's benching, but Brown quieted down in Week 17. The Colts don't have anything more than a nice solid offense that does nothing particularly well aside from never fumble. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Colts defense has two qualities that are good. First, they have Robert Mathis, who had led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 despite having no one else on the team have more than 5. Mathis was dominant all season long. The Colts also force a lot of fumbles on defense. Other than that, they are decidedly mediocre. They have one corner in Vontae Davis that alternates between great and terrible. Their safety play is very inconsistent. Jerrell Freeman and Cory Redding each had nice season, but are surrounded by people who had average seasons. What is nice for the Colts is they aren't particularly bad at anything, just average at a lot of things. A lot of their success is due to the schemes of Chuck Pagano and Defensive Coordiator John Manusky. Scheme only goes so far though. Rank: 5th.
QB: Andrew Luck definitely was better in his 2nd season, but probably not as much better as people think. The stats on him that really improved were partly due to a scheme change. He threw shorter far more this year than last year in Arians' scheme. That's largely why is Y/A dropped, but his sack rate and int rate improved so much. His completion percentage rise was also due to this. What hurts Luck is the part that isn't explained by this change: why is completion percentage is 60.2%. That isn't good in the modern NFL in any scheme. Too often he throws too high or too late. This should get better over time, but could hurt the Colts chances in 2013. Rank: 5th
Coach: I am in two minds about the Colts coaching staff. On the defensive side, I think the staff does a great job of preparing and scheming that defense. Their stats are better than their talent would indicated. Most of their defensive success apart from Robert Mathis comes from scheme. That said, the offensive side is a mess. Their strange love for Smash-Mouth football despite no evidence they can play that way is maddening. Finally, on the game management side the Colts need improvement. Pagano is way too conservative, something that could kill this team. Rank: 6th
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5 = 430-305)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 430 ptf (6th), 305 pta (5th), +125 pd (4th), 5,894 ydf (10th), 4,888 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: +14.5% team (9th), +0.5% off (17th), -12.7% def (5th), +1.3% st (12th)
Offense: The Bengals are a more silent version of the Saints and Seahawks, in that they are far better playing at home than on the road. They finished 8-0 at home. Most of their home dominance was defensive (even aiding their point total, as they scored a slew of defensive TDs at home), but some was offensive as well. They put up 49-41-42-42 points in four striaght home games before 34 (27 offensive) against Baltimore in Week 17. The Bengals in a way resemble a better form of last year's Ravens. I said about them before the playoffs that they were a better than good offense in terms of what they could be, and this is the same. Dalton may have 20 interceptions, but most came in a handful of games (10 against Baltimore twice and Miami). AJ Green is still dominant. Marvin Jones solidified himself as a solid #2. They have two TEs that make plays and a slew of other receivers who have pretty defined roles. Their running game isn't great, but is consistent. It rarely gets stuffed and converts short yardage. If Dalton improves going forward, this could be a Top-5-7 offense. For right now, they are a good offense, especially at home. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Bengals have lost their two best defenders for the year with injuries back in midseason. First Leon Hall went down, and in their next game Geno Atkins went down. However, they really haven't fallen off too far since then. Their secondary was the deepest in the NFL before Hall went down, and remains a solid unit that can go 3-5 deep. Their defensive line was deep before Atkins went down and remains with a solid rotation. This year it was Carlos Dunlap and Wallace Gilberry picking up the slack with 15 sacks between them. The linebacker crew is also quite deep, but there was no standout, lost to injury or otherwise. Vincent Rey had a really nice season. Cincinnati's defense is still very good. The led the NFL in Drive Success Rate on defense. They were Top-5 in fewest Yards Allowed, Points Allowed, TDs Allowed per drive, and Top-5 in most punts and three-and-outs force per drive. Their red-zone defense is solidly in the Top-10. Considering the injuries, it is amazing how good the Bengals defense stayed. Rank: 1st
QB: Andy Dalton had 33 TD passes this year. That is good. He had 20 INTs, which is bad. What is the real Dalton? I don't really know. To me, he's a more high-variance version of Joe Flacco. He can be better than Flacco. He can easily win games for you. He can also be worse than Flacco, and throw three or four picks. Now, 10 of his 20 INTs came against his divisional rivals, and in his biggest games he had few picks. Dalton was thoroughly mediocre in DVOA (18th), but that is what happens when you have some awful games and some very good ones. Rank: 4th
Coach: Marvin Lewis rewarded Mike Brown's patience and has turned the Bengals into one of the better-run franchises in the NFL. They have drafted well and developed well over the years. His staff has also done a great job adjusting to injuries and personnel. Jay Gruden's offense has deftly added two rookies to the mix and used the receivers well. The real star, though, is Mike Zimmer, who's defense has survived losing a pro-bowl corner and all-pro tackle, and still been a Top-5 unit. The only fault is Marvin Lewis's terrible use of timeouts (though he is aggresive). Rank: 3rd
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 444-338)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 444 ptf (3rd), 338 pta (10th), +106 pd (8th), 6,152 ydf (7th), 5,969 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: +19.0% team (5th), +16.5% off (4th), +4.1% def (21st), +6.7% st (2nd)
Offense: The Patriots are a different offense without Rob Gronkowski. That much is obvious. How different, though? Well, early in the season they were also missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola for a number of those games and the results were bad. Before Gronkowski's initial return the Patriots were an average offense by DVOA, and Tom Brady had completely below-average stats and had a DVOA below zero. Then, with Gronkowski, they were the highest scoring offense in the NFL in that period. Then Gronk went out again, but the other guys were there, and they were a good but not great offense for four games. The numbers look nice but Brady's numbers without Gronk aren't great in the past three games. The O-line is shuffled but good as always, and the three-headed RB-by-committee has worked. They're nowhere near what they were from 2010-2012, but going into the playoffs, they are better than the 2009 unit for sure. And given how average they were looking early in the season, the Patriots have ended up 3rd in the NFL in scoring, and Top-10 in yards, tds and avoiding-three-and-outs per drive. The one area of concern in red zone efficiency, which is above average with Gronkowski, but well below without him. Rank: 3rd
Defense: The Patriots, like the Bengals, lost their two best players in Wilfork and Mayo. Unlike the Bengals, their defense has slipped. Before the Mayo injury, they were close top Top-10 by DVOA, and they ended 21st. They've entered an interesting place where seemingly they can only defend the run or the pass each week, but rarely both (unless you are Baltimore and can't do either yourself). Take the Broncos win, where they totally played to stop the pass, but couldn't touch the run. Or Carolina, which was the reverse. The pass defense is still aggressive at times, but they're starting to play more zone to hide their big but slow linebackers. What the Patriots do really well is rush the passer. Quietly, they picked up 48 sacks. Now, sacks were way up league-wide, but 48 is still good for 6th. Their defense is really good at stopping 4th downs, which gives them a good overall points per drive despite not being great at keeping teams out of the end zone. Belichick schemes them well, but they have less talent this year than any, even in 2011. Rank: 4th
QB: Tom Brady did not have a good year for his standards, especially in games where Rob Gronkowski did not play. I don't care how much people try to explain thing away, that he had no one to throw to, that he had a bad o-line. Well, Philip Rivers also lost his top two targets from the offseason. Brady barely completed 60 percent of his passes. He had a y/a under 7. He had a QB rating under 90. None of these things are good. Of course, he's still Tom Brady and he was definitely better in the 2nd string of games without Gronk than he was in the 1st. Rank: 3rd
Coach: Bill Belichick and his staff are in that machine phase that the 49ers entered into in the post-Walsh era, when they had future Super Bowl winning coaches running their offense and quality guys running the defense. Now, Belichick's assistants probably aren't that good, but Bill is better than George Seifert. Belichick had some strange moments in terms of game management this year, but that offense and defense is always schemed well. They never get less than the sum of their parts. Rank: 1st
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = 606-399)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conv.: 606 ptf (1st), 399 pta (22nd), +207 pd (1st), 7,317 ydf (1st), 5,696 yda (19th)
= Outsiders: +32.8% team (2nd), +33.7% off (1st), -0.2% def (15th), -1.1% st (21st)
Offense: It all begins and ends with Peyton Manning and his band of brothers. The key matchup nightmares really are Knowshon Moreno, who's proven a really capable receiver from the backfield, and Julius Thomas, who was the 2nd best TE in the NFL by DYAR. Or maybe the keys are Decker and Thomas, who were both Top-5 in DYAR for WRs. Or maybe it is Welker, who will be back after missing three games. Or really it is just Manning, who makes this whole thing work. The Broncos are actually not 1st in yards per drive, as that goes to San Diego. But they are first in TDs per drive (by a lot), fewest punts per drive, and best red zone numbers per drive. Despite some notable moments of consecutive three-and-outs, they rank as the 2nd fewest in that category as well. There is a reason this is the highest scoring offense of all time. They may not be the best offense ever, but they have the talent to be that in any one game, especially with all their main weapons back in the fold. Even their running game is good, ranking #10 in DVOA, with Moreno having a solid season, and Montee Ball getting better as the season went on. Rank: 1st
Defense: Last year the Broncos had arguably the best defense in the NFL. Then they went and crapped the bed in their playoff loss, preceded to lose Elvis Dumervil in the offseason, and Von Miller early in Week 16. Their defensive DVOA was actually Top-10 with Miller playing, but there were other guys who were also playing then but not when Miller wasn't, like Chris Harris, Wesley Woodyard, Robert Ayers (who all missed their defensive nadir, the 51-48 win over Dallas). Derek Wolfe is also expected to be back, and Champ Bailey finally seems healthy. The Denver defense has actually been pretty average round the board (which is good enough given their offense) except for one area, which is in the red zone, where they are bottom-10 in the NFL. That has to get better. The easiest way for them to ensure wins is trade 7's from their offense for 3's from the opponent. Rank: 5th
QB: There's really not more that could be said about Peyton's incredible 2013 season. By DVOA, it only comes out 8th in the DVOA era (from 1989), behind his own seasons from 2006 and 2004. However, he held that value over more throws, to have the 2nd best DYAR (behind Brady in 2007 - ahead of Manning in '04). There were three distinct periods in Manning's year. First was his first 8 games, where he was on record pace everywhere. Then, at the end of Game #9, he hurt his ankle and was limited the next three games. Then, the ankle healed up and he was awesome once again. Since the 2nd KC game, his deep ball has looked really good, which is an added bonus over Manning from 2012. Rank: 1st
Coach: The Broncos had to survive losing John Fox for 6 games to a heart procedure, but now that he is back they seem to be playing more disciplined. Fox has been far more aggressive this year in terms of 4th down and late game situations. Del Rio has done a decent job covering up for personnel issues, but too often the receivers are let open. Finally, Manning is the league's best offensive coordinator, so no real problems there. Rank: 5th
