(N6) New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ (N1) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Sat 4:35 - FOX | Seahawks -9
State of the Teams: Well, the Saints are still on the road, and the Seahawks are still at home. See how easy it is to make this game seem really easy? The Seahawks are not only at home but get their nominal #1 receiver back for the 2nd time all year (and the first time lasted one game) in Percy Harvin. The Seahawks have few injuries really to worry about. Their o-line hasn't been good for much of the year in pass blocking even after their starters came back. The Seahawks also have no real weakness. They rank in the Top-10 in DVOA in pass offense, rush offense, pass defense and rush defense. The standout unit is the pass defense, which was by far the best in the NFL this season. They were in the Top-10 covering #1 recievers, #2 receivers, other receivers, tight ends and running backs. There is really no weakness there. The Saints have weaknesses. Their rush defense is not great over the course of the season (it was fantastic last week). The Saints are good in pass defense, mainly coming from their pass rush. Cameron Jordan and Junior Gallette have been monsters all season long. The Saints have also had to hear, right after winning a road playoff game, how they can't win this game on the road.
Matchup: We saw this matchup recently, a game that the Seahawks dominated to no end. The Seahawks even refused to give the Saints garbage-time yards. Brees completed 23 passes, for just 147 yards. They had no run game. On the other side, Russell Wilson cut them up, having one of the best games of his career. Even outside of that game, the Seahawks have all of the matchup edges. They get to go against a soft defense. They have a defense themselves that excels against the pass, and the Saints will need more from their passing game this week than they got last week. The Seahawks were #3 in DVOA against Tight Ends, #2 against Running Backs, and #5 against #1 receivers. So I guess the Saints better hope Lance Moore has a big game. The Seahawks are also by far the best red zone defense in the NFL, while the Saints have struggled in the red zone, especially on the road. Even the weather - expected rain showers throughout - point to Seattle. The only matchup that favors the Saints is they have a good enough pass rush at times to dominate the Seahawks O-Line.
The Pick: Obviously, everyone is taking the Seahawks in this, most with the points. The line is high, and in recent years there has been a big favorite losing each year (at least since 2007 it's happened every year). I just can't see it here. I think the Saints defense is good enough to keep them in the game, and I'll take the Saints to cover a low-scoring game, but their offense is just not good enough on the road, despite what a nice rushing performance against a poor defense last week says. The Saints struggle to get YAC on the road, and the Seahawks are awesome at stopping YAC. I think either of the two teams they could potentially play in the NFC Title Game has a shot at beating Seattle, but the Saints just don't have the matchups to do it in my mind. Nothing points to them, especially the Saints lack of red zone play on both sides of the ball.
Saints 16 Seahawks 24 (NO +9)
(A4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ (A2) New England Patriots (12-4)
Sat 8:10 - CBS | Patriots -7.5
State of the Teams: Coming into the game, we will hear a lot about the Patriots injury situation. Admittedly, it is scary how many of their better players they have lost for the year (Wilfork, Mayo, Spikes, Gronkowski, Vollmer), but they still have more talent. The Colts themselves are missing their top-two offensive players not named Luck from preseason (Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen). TY Hilton might take over from Allen, but this would be a better team with Dwayne Allen playing. Both teams have been effected by their injuries and overall responded well. The Colts are more high-variance, so on days they aren't up, the lack of depth kills them as seen by their bad losses to St. Louis, Arizona or Cincinnati. The Patriots are the least variable team in the league, essentially playing pretty equally each game, so their down performances aren't bad, but their top performances aren't special. Both teams have played a bevy of close games, and both have had their share of comebacks in this season. By DVOA totals and splits, the defenses are pretty much equal. The offenses aren't, but without Gronkowski, the one major weakness for the Patriots offense, their red zone offense, could cripple them in the playoffs.
Matchup: By DVOA, these teams are closer than people would think. The major difference is the Patriots offense ended better than the Colts offense. I'm skeptical for a few reasons. First, the Patriots offense by design is loved by DVOA. Far better Patriots offense's by DVOA have thrown up terrible playoff performances. Secondly, they've struggled without Gronkowski. The Colts offensive numbers are also depressed by struggling after Wayne went down, but they've seemed to realize that the answer to that isn't 'Run Richardson More'. Both teams are average in the red zone on offense and defense. Both teams are average or worse covering any type of receiving option. The Patriots have a better pass rush, but worse secondary. The big difference is variance. The Colts defense, which is not great, has the highest variance in DVOA in the NFL. They can play great games, they can play bad games. Most of their great games came against good offenses (Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Indianapolis, KC in the regular season). It could happen again. On the other side, Brady has taken more sacks, so some try to blame to O-Line injuries, but the O-Line has done a fantastic job of opening up running lanes for Ridley and Blount. The matchups are close, but a lot of that depends on which Colts team shows up.
The Pick: I can't believe that I have hope the Colts win this game, but I can't pick them. The line has steadied around a TD, which I think is fair. When you are picking games, you can't bank on things like high variance teams. Factor in that the simulation where the Colts bring their A game and win could happen, but it isn't something you can count on. The injury situation in the secondary really hurts the Colts, as they lost their advantage against teh Patriots receivers. The Patriots also will not make the coverage mistakes the Chiefs made. They'll keep guys behind Hilton. They have an underrated pass rush that can get consistent pressure on Andrew Luck. I hate that the Colts could have their first real playoff run of the Luck era end in New England.
Colts 20 Patriots 30 (NE -7.5)
(N5) San Franciscio 49ers (12-4) @ (N2) Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Sun 1:05 - FOX | 49ers -1.5
The State of the Teams: The 49ers enter hot off of seven straight victories. Of course, they entered the first meeting with Carolina hot off of five straight victories. The difference is the players that are back for the 49ers. That first meeting was Aldon Smith's first game back after his leave for rehab. Aldon Smith looked dominant against Green Bay. The 49ers also didn't have Michael Crabtree in that game and he looked dominant against the Packers. The 49ers also lost Vernon Davis midway through the game with a concussion, and while he didn't look dominant against the Packers, he scored a TD and is still good. The Panthers on the other side rested their #2 defense in the NFL. On defense they do everything well. They force the most field goals in the NFL. They get more pressure on the QB than any team in the NFL, becoming the first team since 2006 to have 60 sacks. Their offense struggled the last two weeks of the season, but are probably getting Steve Smith and definitely getting Jonathan Stewart back. Both teams are really good, and however hot the 49ers are, the Panthers themselves are 11-1 in their last 12 games, the lone loss being a SNF loss in the Superdome.
The Matchup: Yes, the last time they played it was a 10-9 game with the 49ers missing guys, but the 49ers were also fortunate to get 9 points. Two of their drives started in Carolina territory, one after a muffed punt the other after a Newton interception. The 49ers had just 151 yards on the day. They had just one drive over 20 yards. That is staggeringly great defense. The Panthers abused the 49ers o-line which quietly is not nearly as good at pass blocking as people think. The 49ers rush defense isn't nearly as good this year as it was the past two years, which is not a good thing heading into a game with the #4 DVOA rush offense. The Panthers are also really good in the red zone offensively. Overall, I think people are assuming the 49ers in 2013 are the same as they were in 2011-12. They aren't. The defense is merely good, not great. They dominated some bad teams, but struggled against most of the good offenses the played against. Kaepernick definitely looks better with Crabtree back, but he still struggles to throw under pressure (not on the run - so if he escapes pressure he's fine), and is too inaccurate. Contrary to popular belief, there really isn't much the 49ers do better than Carolina.
The Pick: The biggest weakness of the Panthers is their secondary. Now, it's better than most believe, but it can be picked apart by good QBs who get time. Kaepernick likely won't have time. The Panthers have the best pass rush in the playoffs, and they'll be at home. I think it has gotten lost how good this defense is. They played a better offense three weeks ago in New Orleans, and held them to 13. If they do that, they likely win. Twice this year we've asked if the 49ers have the ability to beat the good teams. A three-point win over a 8-7-1 team doesn't do it for me. The fact that they're favorites makes it even easier. The 49ers know this game. They were the last team to be a home underdog on divisional weekend. I can't think of a better motivator for the Panthers than that.
49ers 13 Panthers 20 (CAR +1.5)
(A6) San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ (A1) Denver Broncos (13-3)
Sun 4:45 - CBS | Broncos -9
State of the Teams: The Chargers enter off their 2nd best performance of the year (the 1st being their win over Denver in the regular season), beating the Bengals down in a way that mirrored what the Jets did to the Bengals in 2009 - capitalizing on a bad game by the Bengals QB and rushing the ball wild while having their QB complete 12 passes. The Chargers play a certain way. They control the ball, convert 3rd downs, stay on the field, and make you beat them in less possessions than normal. It works when their defense can get a turnover or two. It doesn't when they can't or if they struggle in the red zone. The Broncos are the opposite. They play fast, try to score as much as possible, and try to make each game last as long as possible so their offensive advantages have time to make an impact. The Broncos are the best in the red zone, converting trips for TDs far more than any other team, putting a lot of pressure on the opposing team to do the same. The Broncos defense comes off of their two best performances of the year even without Von Miller, but that came against two bad offenses, not a great one. They'll need their pass rush to step up, particularly Shaun Phillips who was great when Miller was suspended in Weeks 1-6. The Chargers have a lot of crucial guys questionable, like Nick Hardwick and Ryan Mathews, and if they're out it could severely limit their chances to do what they want to do.
Matchup: They played twice. Yes, despite what the Chargers did in Week 15, they did lose to Denver earlier. That game was actually similar to the Week 15 game. The winner went up big early and ended up winning a game less close than the score indicated. The difference was Denver didn't even play their best in Week 8, but played their absolutely worst game in Week 15. The biggest key to me is red zone. The Chargers are great on 3rd down, while the Broncos are bad on 3rd down defense, but the one place on offense the Chargers struggle on is in the red zone. They struggled mightily there in the 1st matchup, and even struggled last week as they could have put the Bengals away sooner but twice settled for field goals inside the 10. They can't do that to Denver. Denver also needs to not make the same mistakes as they did last time. Manning saw their blitzes in Week 15, if he can diagnose them, he should cut apart the weak Chargers secondary. On the other side, the Broncos secondary is healthier than it has been all year, but their pass rush is at its weakest. A key will be the play of Bailey, who I'm guessing they put on Keenan Allen at least to start.
The Pick: I think the Broncos win. To me there are a lot of similarities here to the Ravens @ Colts divisional round game in 2009. Those Ravens also went 9-7, and then beat down the #3 seed in the Wild Card round on the road by capitalizing on a QB meltdown (for them it was Brady), and nearly 200 yards rushing. Those Ravens played those Colts once, a close 17-15 loss. They went in hot and motivated, and lost 20-3. I think this will be closer. This Broncos defense is not as good as that Colts unit. The line is just too high. Only once have the Chargers lost by more than a TD this year. They just don't make the game long enough to lose by that much. In the end, the Denver offense is just better. If they don't drop passes, or go offsides on punts giving the Chargers free 1st downs, they should be fine. It might get tough at times, but they're too good offensively against a defense too average to not score enough to win.
Chargers 23 Broncos 31 (SD +9)
Enjoy the Games!!
