Once again, no picks. Once again, I feel like I would have gone 13-3 and made all of the money. So, in lieu of recapping picks that didn't happen, I'm going to give a little awards recap with two weeks to go.
Power Rankings
AFC
The "We'll still be a team in 2030, so let's win by then" Quintro
16.) Houston Texans (2-12 = 253-375)
15.) Oakland Raiders (4-10 = 295-393)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 = 221-399)
13.) Buffalo Bills (5-9 = 300-354)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-10 = 288-362)
Including the Texans, who had the briefest Super Bowl window ever, these five teams have made the playoffs a combined 6 times since the 2002 realignment. That's impossibly ridiculous. How can they stay bad year after year is amazing. The Jaguars and Texans had brief flirtations with relevancy and well run franchises, but the season after their best year both ended in disaster (2008 for Jacksonville, 2013 for Houston). The Browns one playoff appearance was in 2002 and while they have a 10 win season since (something the Raiders and Bills don't) ten, they've really never been good in their current incarnation. They all seem to be stuck in never-ending cycles of losing, but it can't last forever. The Patriots were once one of these teams. The Colts in their run in Indianapolis were even more one of these teams. It will get better.
The "Thanks for Competing, but Thanks for Leaving before January" Trio
11.) Tennessee Titans (5-9 = 326-355)
10.) New York Jets (6-8 = 246-367)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8 = 321-332)
All these three teams had their moments this season. The Titans started 3-1 and were looking like the 1999 Titans all over again before Jake Locker got hurt. The Jets were once 5-4 with wins over the then two loss Patriots and Saints, before Geno Smith became worse than even Mark Sanchez was as a rookie. The Steelers were never really in it, but have gone 4-2 since their 2-6 start and will once again most likely avoid losing 10 games, something they haven't done since 2003. Honestly, in the current iteration of the AFC, all of these teams have legitimate claims that they could make a run next year. The Steelers still have an elite QB. The Titans have a young QB who showed promise and a defense that is getting better. And the Jets just need a QB and a WR or two. None are that far away in this conference.
The "Token Division Winner who will be an Underdog in Round 1" Uno
6.) Indianapolis Colts (9-5 = 338-319)
The Colts are an interesting team. They started 6-2, so a potentially 10-6 finish is disappointing in one regard, but on the other hand they are an unquestionably better team this year. Last season, the Colts were the first team ever to win 11 games with a negative point differential. This year, they will likely finish with a positive point differential. They have scored more points and allowed fewer. Those are good things. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs without Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Allen, but the plan is there (stupid Trent Richardson trade notwithstanding). The Luck era may have to wait for a 2nd coach to take flight (like Peyton did), but they have the best chance to be the Colts or Patriots of 2015-2025.
The "Dangerous 6-seed" Trio
7.) San Diego Chargers (7-7 = 343-311)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 296-277)
5.) Miami Dolphins (8-6 = 310-296)
One of these three teams will go to either Indianapolis, Cincinnati or New England in Round 1. They will most likely be underdogs in each place, but my guess is the betting public will be behind one of them (unless they are playing New England). All three chance to be entering hot. The Ravens are the only team that can really afford a loss (as they would win tiebkreakers at 9-7 against both). The Dolphins can't, but they have the easiest schedule. The Dolphins could enter the playoffs with a five game win streak, all coming after the Incognito-Martin mess. If they win both of their remaining games, they're in, but they have so little margin for error. It's a crazy situation in the AFC. The Chargers need both Miami and Baltimore to lose out, so they have no realistic hope, but credit them for not going away. That team has a bright future.
The "Hardest Team in the NFL to Judge" Uno
4.) New England Patriots (10-4 = 369-311)
Who are the New England Patriots? All year long they've played close games. They've won just three games by more than a field goal. The first was a 20-3 win over Tampa in the middle of Tampa's 0-8 start. The 2nd was their best game of the season, a 55-31 thrashing of Pittsburgh where for one night everything seemed right with their offense. The third was a 27-17 win over Miami, which they were down 17-3 at halftime. The others were all close games. They could be 14-0, they could be 7-7. 10-4 is about right for a team that's played so many close games. They don't have the offense to score 35 a game. Their defense which held up early has fallen apart to some degree, at a level where they seem to either decide to stop the run or the pass on any Sunday, but rarely both. Still, they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This game against Baltimore is so meaningful. They've never reached the Super Bowl without a 1st round bye, and given their current situation, this doesn't seem like the year where it will happen.
The 'If One of Us Don't Make the Super Bowl, Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3 = 399-255)
Yup, I'm including the Chiefs in this. They've been a strange team where apart from Weeks 1-4, their offense and defense have never been great at the same time, but their offense has had a great run of late and their defense still has all the players that made them the best defense in the NFL in Weeks 1-9. The Chiefs are boring at this stage, but 12-4 (or even 13-3!) wild-card teams are rare. They'll most likely be favorites in Round 1, but if they're not, they should be. This team is better than the one that lost three straight games.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-5 = 354-274)
That was a bad loss, but if that screwup on the punt doesn't happen early, who knows what happens. The Bengals still have a shot at a wild card, but that would mean them winning that Week 17 game at home against Baltimore, a game that could have make or break playoff implications for both teams. The Bengals are the 2nd most talented team, with current healthy players, in the AFC. They haven't lost at home. They need that #2 seed, but even at #3, they are dangerous. Of course, they could miss the playoffs at 10-6 if Maimi wins out. Who knows? Who knows.
1.) Denver Broncos (11-3 = 535-372)
They're still the best team in the AFC, but that was a stunning loss. I really didn't see it coming. I thought they had a chance to lose in San Diego, and I guess the Chargers were the more desperate team in this one, but that was shocking to some degree. They have a serious problem on defense, but other than San Diego, who is a longshot to make the playoffs, there is no offense in AFC good enough to really take advantage of it.
NFC
The "Worst Teams in a Really Good Conference" Quintro
16.) Washington Redskins (3-11 = 305-434)
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10 = 258-324)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10 = 309-388)
13.) New York Giants (5-9 = 251-357)
12.) Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1 = 363-425)
The NFC is really good this year. It isn't as good as the AFC in, say, 2004, when it had four teams at 12-4 or better, but it is deeper. The worst NFC team is Washington, who won its division last year. The Buccaneers are 4-2 in their last six. The Falcons were the #1 seed last year. The Giants are still talented, but actually might have the bleakest future of any NFC team, and this team won a Super Bowl two years ago. The NFC is ridiculous right now, and these five teams are the losers in that fight.
The "Two Division Races, and a Wild Spoiler" Sexto
11.) Dallas Cowboys (7-7 = 393-385)
I feel so bad for Tony Romo. Not too bad, since he's married to a gorgeous woman, makes a ton of money, and is a QB in the NFL, but he can't help himself into falling deeper into this misinformed narrative. I will say that one was on Tony, who reportedly changed run calls to passes, and threw two bad interceptions. That might cost his team a chance at a playoff win, but could as easily not. Beat the Redskins in Washington, and the Cowboys get their shot at a third straight do-or-die Week 17 game for the NFC East, but the first at home.
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-6-1 = 353-362)
It's hard to believe the Packers are still alive, mainly because they've gone just 2-4-1 without Aaron Rodgers, and both their wins are by one point. Just basing this on the words I've heard from Rodgers, McCarthy and the rest of the Packers brass, I don't see Rodgers coming back this season, and I firmly believe the other five playoff teams agree with me. If Rodgers does come back and they win this division, there might be no scarier sub-10-win playoff team ever.
9.) Chicago Bears (8-6 = 406-391)
The Bears are an offense first team. It is a testament to coaching philosophy to see how quickly the Bears have changed course. They were the best defense in the NFL last season. Their defense is pretty much garbage this year (most of that due to a humorous amount of injuries). Their offense? It's the 2nd highest scoring unit in the NFL, despite missing Cutler for 6 games. That's not a typo. They are #2 in the NFL in scoring offense. Marc Trestman is a coaching savant on offense. I love to watch their offense. Their season will come down to Trestman doing something Lovie Smith never did: beat Green Bay in a game that matters.
8.) St. Louis Rams (6-8 = 316-324)
It says a lot to how dominant their D-Line can be, and how good a coach Jeff Fisher is that I wasn't the least bit surprised the Rams won that game. They need a QB. Maybe Sam Bradford is that guy, but who knows. They'll have to make that decision though. This is a mighty tough division, but they aren't that far off in all honesty. I just like that 15 years later, Jeff Fisher's plan still works. They have a D-Line that can dominate, and on offense that at their best can look great, but their best shows up one game in three. Sounds like way too many of their Titans teams.
7.) Detroit Lions (7-7 = 362-339)
The Lions have the most talent of any team in this group apart from possibly a Rodgers-healthy Packers team. The Lions have also shot themselves in the foot. This offseasn will be so important. If they blow this division, does Schwartz get fired? Is it a good idea if he does? He's still had better results than the previous three Lions coaches (quick, name them?). It's a complicated scenario for them to make the playoffs, but if they get there they could be dangerous.
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-6 = 364-349)
Tough loss for the Eagles, but this is still not a very good team, but a merely good one. They can get hot and win some games, but that team has some severe issues with their defensive personnel that isn't exactly going to go away suddenly. They have a clear path to winning the division, but I fear for them in Week 17 in Dallas. There's an interesting situation regarding next week's game that I'll go into later, but all I'll say is I think Chip Kelly is a smart enough coach to sit his team if the Cowboys win during the day, even if it means rendering a SNF game unwatchable.
The "Team that picked a bad year to have a good year" Uno
5.) Arizona Cardinals (9-5 = 342-291)
The Cardinals could end up being the 2010 Buccaneers all over again. That team somehow went 10-6 with a good defense and a timely offense. These Cardinals could go 10-6 with a great defense and a passable offense. Given the cores of the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams, this might be the best chance they have of making the playoffs. Assuming Bradford is league average, the Cardinals will have the worst QB situation of any NFC West team. That defense is still so fun to watch, though.
The "Team That can Only WIn at Home that Needs to Win on the Road to Avoid Having to Win Away From Home" Uno
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-4 = 359-270)
Ranking the Saints is so hard. They are probably the best team at home in the NFL, but away from home they are legimitately mediocre. Well, to ensure they won't have to win three road games to win the Super Bowl, they have to win a road game. In a way I'm so happy they lost to the Rams because that makes this game against Carolina so big. The Saints better show it on the road this week because the chances of them doing so come January is slim.
The 'If One of us Three Doesn't Win the NFC, Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) San Francisco 49ers (10-4 = 349-228)
I didn't get many things right when I predicted every 2nd half game back before Week 10, but the one thing I did get right was about the 49ers. I said they would, just like they did in the first 8, start slow and then go on a roll against bad teams. They'll likely win their last two games (assuming they try to beat Arizona) and have just one win in that span against a team with a record above .500. I still don;t know how good they are, but with Crabtree back, they might have a chance to beat the teams they couldn't in their 6-4 start.
2.) Carolina Panthers (10-4 = 328-208)
The Panthers are really good, and now if they beat the Saints and the Falcons, they'll get the #2 seed. This is after a 1-3 start (where they blew their 2nd loss) and came out of that four game stretch with a soulless 22-6 loss to Arizona. The Panthers had the #2 seed at 12-4 in 2008 and that didn't go well, but I think this one won't end with a 5-interception performance by Cam Newton. Let's hope, at least.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (12-2 = 380-205)
The Seahawks are really good. End of story.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 13-3 (W @HOU; W @OAK)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (W vs.MIN; W vs.BAL)
3.) Indianapolis Colts = 11-5 (W @KC; W vs.JAX)
4.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (L @BAL; W vs.BUF)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (L vs.IND; L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 10-6 (W @BUF; W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3 (W vs.ARZ; L vs.STL)
2.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (W vs.NO; W @ATL)
3.) Chicago Bears = 10-6 (W @PHI; W vs.GB)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles = 9-7 (L vs.CHI; W @DAL)
5.) New Orleans Saints = 11-5 (L @CAR; W vs.TB)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (W vs.ATL; L @ARZ)
Award Watch
MVP
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
3.) Jamaal Charles (RB-KC)
4.) Russell Wilson (QB-SEA)
5.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Thankfully, the Patriots lost, because if Peyton Manning lost the MVP to Tom Brady when Brady had his, like, 9th best season, I may have gave up on football. Peyton Manning is the MVP. He's been so good that despite his relatively average performance over the past 8 games, he's put up stats in that period that would be the best in the NFL in that span aside from the fluke that is Nick Foles. Rivers should get serious consideration as he's having the 2nd best year of any QB without his top two receivers from preseason. After that are the best offensive players from good teams.
Offensive Player of the Year
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Josh Gordon (WR-CLE)
3.) LeSean McCOy (RB-PHI)
I think the only way Manning gets this is if he breaks Brady's TD record, but I think he will. Gordon is having a historic per-game season that should be rewarded with at least a 1st-team All-Pro nod. McCoy is having the best season of any RB, but Jamaal Charles is close. If Charles does get to 10 TDs receiving and rushing, I can see him winning the entire award, though, as that would be historic. Of course, Manning throwing 51 or more TDs would be historic as well, but who cares about Manning winning yet another award?
Defensive Player of the Year
1.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
2.) Robert QUinn (DE-STL)
3.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
This is honestly a hard award this year, as the best defenses have no clear candidate, and the three superstars either had to miss games because of alcoholism or suspension, and Watt has been slightly worse than he was last year. Mathis gets my nod right now for having the most sacks in the NFL on a defense that has few other big pieces. People should be concentarting on him, but he's still made plays. Quinn has been about as good as Mathis while being better against the run. Watt has probably been the best defensive player in the NFL this season, but he'll never get the award because he wasn't as good as last year, when he had arguably the best defensive season ever.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Keenan Allen (WR-SD)
2.) Eddie Lacy (RB-GB)
3.) EJ Manuel (QB-BUF)
Eddie Lacy likely wins this award because the mass media will give him the credit for keeping the Packers playoff hopes alive without Rodgers, but what Allen has given the Chargers is more important. The San Diego Chargers have had the 2nd best passing game this season, and that is without their #1 and #2 receivers on their depth chart from July. Denarrio Alexander was lost for the season before the regular season, and Malcolm Floyd was lost on a scary neck injury in Week 2. The Chargers have needed guys to step-up, and while the continual success of Danny Woodhead is a large part of it, so is the rise of Keenan Allen. As for Manuel, I have no idea who to put at #3. He's been the best rookie QB outside of Mike Glennon. In fact, I probably should've put Glennon, but its too late now.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Sheldon Richardson (DT-NYJ)
2.) Tyrann Mathieu (CB-ARZ)
3.) Star Louteleilei (DT-CAR)
This ranking isn't based on who will win, because apart from Ndamukong Suh, who led all Defensive Tackles in sacks in 2010, interior D-Lineman never win the award. I don't know who will win, but Sheldon Richardson should. He's been as good against the run as Muhammad Wilkerson. He's been a monster in the heart of that defense, and a 3-down D-Tackle as a rookie, which is exceptional. Mathieu was really good for a 3rd round safety, and his improvement over the course of the season is commendable. I really hope he recovers from his ACL/MCL tear. Louteleilei has been 80% as good as Richardson, which is saying a lot about both players.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ New York Jets (6-8) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "These Games Don't Matter" Sunday, as these are the three games that have no playoff implications. Of course the NFL couldn't have predicted this, but they did a good job of getting a host of playoff important matchups this late in the season. These games are all pretty unwatchable, and alas, I won't be watching them,
13.) New York Giants (5-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-7) (4:05 - FOX)
12.) Denver Broncos (11-3) @ Houston Texans (2-12) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Miami Dolphins (8-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-9) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Dallas Cowboys (7-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-11) (1:00- FOX)
9.) Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ San Diego Chargers (7-7) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "One Teams is Playing for Something, One Team Isn't; Is it This Obvious?" Sunday, as all six of these games have won team fighting for a playoff spot against one team who isn't. Some of these are woefully one-sided, like Denver's trip to Houston that the NFL probably wished was far more important, or the Raiders going to San Diego. Some are just boring, like the Giants trip to Detroit in a potentially irrelevant game, and the Cowboys trip to Washington, a rare NFC East game this late in the season that shouldn't warrant more than three minutes of time on Sportscenter.
7.) Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "NBC banked on something great but could get Something Awful" Sunday, as the Bears and Eagles play a game that could be meainingless for the Eagles. If the Cowboys win earlier in the day (a likelihood, given their playing against the falling apart Redskins), this game will be meaningless for the Eagles. Win or lose, they need to beat an 8-7 Dallas to win the NFC East. Of course, for the Bears it will be really meaningful. This is an underrated rivalry, as these two played some memorable games in the mid-00s' ('07, '08, '10 all had good ones), but it could be meainingless.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) @ Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Arizona Cardinals (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-2) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "One tangentially in it team Tries to Spoil Shit" as the Steelers and Seahawks are basically locked into not being in the playoffs and being the #1 seed respectively. Neither game is really meaningful for those teams. For the other, it is incredibly so. A loss here ends the season for the Cardinals. A loss here basically ends the season for the Packers. I still feel like Matt Flynn will start once again, allowing the Steelers to get some nice revenge for Super Bowl XLV. Has a Super Bowl revenge game ever been so depressing so quickly?
4.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "The Meaningful, Meaningless Game", as the 49ers are basically locked into a Wild Card with nothing to play for, but of course this is the final game, in all likelihood, at Candlestick Park. That stadium has seen more history than every current NFL stadium apart from Lambaeu Field. That field hosted the NFC Championship Game in 1981, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1997 and 2011. It's held countless other playoff games and scores of Hall of Famers played on that field. It should get a grand exit from the NFL stage. It is one of the few hallowed grounds left. Sure, Candlestick is outdated, but as someone who is too young to have been a fan during the dynastic 49ers, even I felt a chill watching the 2011 NFC Championship Game at Candlestick. I'll miss it.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Do You Want To Show Too Much" Sunday, as the great likelihood is that these two teams will meet in two weeks in Indianapolis in the #5 vs. #4 matchup. Of course, each team has something to play for, as the Chiefs can get the #1 seed if the Broncos slip up again, and the Colts can get the #2 seed if the Bengals and Patriots slip up again. How much do they show, knowing that each of their goals is unlikely? Also, after being the NFL's giant killer in September and October (and early November), can the Colts even be competitive against a good team?
2.) New England Patriots (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Of Course This Game Means Something" Sunday, as a game that had little to offer aside from the rivalry aspect three weeks ago is offering a hell of a lot. A Patriots loss here gives the Pats a likely game to play in Wild Card Weekend (they lose tiebreakers to both the Bengals and Colts if they end up with the same record). A Ravens loss hurts their playoff chances considerably, and a Ravens win makes the Week 17 game in Cincinnati a game for the AFC North Title (no matter what happens with Cincinnati). These teams also don't like each other. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed may be gone, but Terrell Suggs is still there, and so is that Baltimore crowd. Great, great game.
1.) New Orleans Saints (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)\
Two weeks ago I lamented that their first matchup in New Orleans might be meaningless, as even with a split the Saints would win the division. Well, the one case in which that didn't hold was if the Saints were knocked off, and they were. Now, this game is as meaningful as any. It harkens back to old classic Week 16 games that were de-facto playoff games. The best we had was in 2008, where both conferences #1 and #2 seeds played each other with the winner having the inside track at the #1 seed. The Titans blew out the Steelers in Tennessee, and the Giants beat Carolina in New York in an OT thriller. I hope this game is as good as that Panthers @ Giants game. The Panthers have a chance to get the inside track at a bye, and ensure that a 3rd meeting between these two teams is not in the dome.
Power Rankings
AFC
The "We'll still be a team in 2030, so let's win by then" Quintro
16.) Houston Texans (2-12 = 253-375)
15.) Oakland Raiders (4-10 = 295-393)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 = 221-399)
13.) Buffalo Bills (5-9 = 300-354)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-10 = 288-362)
Including the Texans, who had the briefest Super Bowl window ever, these five teams have made the playoffs a combined 6 times since the 2002 realignment. That's impossibly ridiculous. How can they stay bad year after year is amazing. The Jaguars and Texans had brief flirtations with relevancy and well run franchises, but the season after their best year both ended in disaster (2008 for Jacksonville, 2013 for Houston). The Browns one playoff appearance was in 2002 and while they have a 10 win season since (something the Raiders and Bills don't) ten, they've really never been good in their current incarnation. They all seem to be stuck in never-ending cycles of losing, but it can't last forever. The Patriots were once one of these teams. The Colts in their run in Indianapolis were even more one of these teams. It will get better.
The "Thanks for Competing, but Thanks for Leaving before January" Trio
11.) Tennessee Titans (5-9 = 326-355)
10.) New York Jets (6-8 = 246-367)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8 = 321-332)
All these three teams had their moments this season. The Titans started 3-1 and were looking like the 1999 Titans all over again before Jake Locker got hurt. The Jets were once 5-4 with wins over the then two loss Patriots and Saints, before Geno Smith became worse than even Mark Sanchez was as a rookie. The Steelers were never really in it, but have gone 4-2 since their 2-6 start and will once again most likely avoid losing 10 games, something they haven't done since 2003. Honestly, in the current iteration of the AFC, all of these teams have legitimate claims that they could make a run next year. The Steelers still have an elite QB. The Titans have a young QB who showed promise and a defense that is getting better. And the Jets just need a QB and a WR or two. None are that far away in this conference.
The "Token Division Winner who will be an Underdog in Round 1" Uno
6.) Indianapolis Colts (9-5 = 338-319)
The Colts are an interesting team. They started 6-2, so a potentially 10-6 finish is disappointing in one regard, but on the other hand they are an unquestionably better team this year. Last season, the Colts were the first team ever to win 11 games with a negative point differential. This year, they will likely finish with a positive point differential. They have scored more points and allowed fewer. Those are good things. They won't go anywhere in the playoffs without Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Allen, but the plan is there (stupid Trent Richardson trade notwithstanding). The Luck era may have to wait for a 2nd coach to take flight (like Peyton did), but they have the best chance to be the Colts or Patriots of 2015-2025.
The "Dangerous 6-seed" Trio
7.) San Diego Chargers (7-7 = 343-311)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 296-277)
5.) Miami Dolphins (8-6 = 310-296)
One of these three teams will go to either Indianapolis, Cincinnati or New England in Round 1. They will most likely be underdogs in each place, but my guess is the betting public will be behind one of them (unless they are playing New England). All three chance to be entering hot. The Ravens are the only team that can really afford a loss (as they would win tiebkreakers at 9-7 against both). The Dolphins can't, but they have the easiest schedule. The Dolphins could enter the playoffs with a five game win streak, all coming after the Incognito-Martin mess. If they win both of their remaining games, they're in, but they have so little margin for error. It's a crazy situation in the AFC. The Chargers need both Miami and Baltimore to lose out, so they have no realistic hope, but credit them for not going away. That team has a bright future.
The "Hardest Team in the NFL to Judge" Uno
4.) New England Patriots (10-4 = 369-311)
Who are the New England Patriots? All year long they've played close games. They've won just three games by more than a field goal. The first was a 20-3 win over Tampa in the middle of Tampa's 0-8 start. The 2nd was their best game of the season, a 55-31 thrashing of Pittsburgh where for one night everything seemed right with their offense. The third was a 27-17 win over Miami, which they were down 17-3 at halftime. The others were all close games. They could be 14-0, they could be 7-7. 10-4 is about right for a team that's played so many close games. They don't have the offense to score 35 a game. Their defense which held up early has fallen apart to some degree, at a level where they seem to either decide to stop the run or the pass on any Sunday, but rarely both. Still, they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This game against Baltimore is so meaningful. They've never reached the Super Bowl without a 1st round bye, and given their current situation, this doesn't seem like the year where it will happen.
The 'If One of Us Don't Make the Super Bowl, Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3 = 399-255)
Yup, I'm including the Chiefs in this. They've been a strange team where apart from Weeks 1-4, their offense and defense have never been great at the same time, but their offense has had a great run of late and their defense still has all the players that made them the best defense in the NFL in Weeks 1-9. The Chiefs are boring at this stage, but 12-4 (or even 13-3!) wild-card teams are rare. They'll most likely be favorites in Round 1, but if they're not, they should be. This team is better than the one that lost three straight games.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-5 = 354-274)
That was a bad loss, but if that screwup on the punt doesn't happen early, who knows what happens. The Bengals still have a shot at a wild card, but that would mean them winning that Week 17 game at home against Baltimore, a game that could have make or break playoff implications for both teams. The Bengals are the 2nd most talented team, with current healthy players, in the AFC. They haven't lost at home. They need that #2 seed, but even at #3, they are dangerous. Of course, they could miss the playoffs at 10-6 if Maimi wins out. Who knows? Who knows.
1.) Denver Broncos (11-3 = 535-372)
They're still the best team in the AFC, but that was a stunning loss. I really didn't see it coming. I thought they had a chance to lose in San Diego, and I guess the Chargers were the more desperate team in this one, but that was shocking to some degree. They have a serious problem on defense, but other than San Diego, who is a longshot to make the playoffs, there is no offense in AFC good enough to really take advantage of it.
NFC
The "Worst Teams in a Really Good Conference" Quintro
16.) Washington Redskins (3-11 = 305-434)
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10 = 258-324)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10 = 309-388)
13.) New York Giants (5-9 = 251-357)
12.) Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1 = 363-425)
The NFC is really good this year. It isn't as good as the AFC in, say, 2004, when it had four teams at 12-4 or better, but it is deeper. The worst NFC team is Washington, who won its division last year. The Buccaneers are 4-2 in their last six. The Falcons were the #1 seed last year. The Giants are still talented, but actually might have the bleakest future of any NFC team, and this team won a Super Bowl two years ago. The NFC is ridiculous right now, and these five teams are the losers in that fight.
The "Two Division Races, and a Wild Spoiler" Sexto
11.) Dallas Cowboys (7-7 = 393-385)
I feel so bad for Tony Romo. Not too bad, since he's married to a gorgeous woman, makes a ton of money, and is a QB in the NFL, but he can't help himself into falling deeper into this misinformed narrative. I will say that one was on Tony, who reportedly changed run calls to passes, and threw two bad interceptions. That might cost his team a chance at a playoff win, but could as easily not. Beat the Redskins in Washington, and the Cowboys get their shot at a third straight do-or-die Week 17 game for the NFC East, but the first at home.
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-6-1 = 353-362)
It's hard to believe the Packers are still alive, mainly because they've gone just 2-4-1 without Aaron Rodgers, and both their wins are by one point. Just basing this on the words I've heard from Rodgers, McCarthy and the rest of the Packers brass, I don't see Rodgers coming back this season, and I firmly believe the other five playoff teams agree with me. If Rodgers does come back and they win this division, there might be no scarier sub-10-win playoff team ever.
9.) Chicago Bears (8-6 = 406-391)
The Bears are an offense first team. It is a testament to coaching philosophy to see how quickly the Bears have changed course. They were the best defense in the NFL last season. Their defense is pretty much garbage this year (most of that due to a humorous amount of injuries). Their offense? It's the 2nd highest scoring unit in the NFL, despite missing Cutler for 6 games. That's not a typo. They are #2 in the NFL in scoring offense. Marc Trestman is a coaching savant on offense. I love to watch their offense. Their season will come down to Trestman doing something Lovie Smith never did: beat Green Bay in a game that matters.
8.) St. Louis Rams (6-8 = 316-324)
It says a lot to how dominant their D-Line can be, and how good a coach Jeff Fisher is that I wasn't the least bit surprised the Rams won that game. They need a QB. Maybe Sam Bradford is that guy, but who knows. They'll have to make that decision though. This is a mighty tough division, but they aren't that far off in all honesty. I just like that 15 years later, Jeff Fisher's plan still works. They have a D-Line that can dominate, and on offense that at their best can look great, but their best shows up one game in three. Sounds like way too many of their Titans teams.
7.) Detroit Lions (7-7 = 362-339)
The Lions have the most talent of any team in this group apart from possibly a Rodgers-healthy Packers team. The Lions have also shot themselves in the foot. This offseasn will be so important. If they blow this division, does Schwartz get fired? Is it a good idea if he does? He's still had better results than the previous three Lions coaches (quick, name them?). It's a complicated scenario for them to make the playoffs, but if they get there they could be dangerous.
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-6 = 364-349)
Tough loss for the Eagles, but this is still not a very good team, but a merely good one. They can get hot and win some games, but that team has some severe issues with their defensive personnel that isn't exactly going to go away suddenly. They have a clear path to winning the division, but I fear for them in Week 17 in Dallas. There's an interesting situation regarding next week's game that I'll go into later, but all I'll say is I think Chip Kelly is a smart enough coach to sit his team if the Cowboys win during the day, even if it means rendering a SNF game unwatchable.
The "Team that picked a bad year to have a good year" Uno
5.) Arizona Cardinals (9-5 = 342-291)
The Cardinals could end up being the 2010 Buccaneers all over again. That team somehow went 10-6 with a good defense and a timely offense. These Cardinals could go 10-6 with a great defense and a passable offense. Given the cores of the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams, this might be the best chance they have of making the playoffs. Assuming Bradford is league average, the Cardinals will have the worst QB situation of any NFC West team. That defense is still so fun to watch, though.
The "Team That can Only WIn at Home that Needs to Win on the Road to Avoid Having to Win Away From Home" Uno
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-4 = 359-270)
Ranking the Saints is so hard. They are probably the best team at home in the NFL, but away from home they are legimitately mediocre. Well, to ensure they won't have to win three road games to win the Super Bowl, they have to win a road game. In a way I'm so happy they lost to the Rams because that makes this game against Carolina so big. The Saints better show it on the road this week because the chances of them doing so come January is slim.
The 'If One of us Three Doesn't Win the NFC, Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) San Francisco 49ers (10-4 = 349-228)
I didn't get many things right when I predicted every 2nd half game back before Week 10, but the one thing I did get right was about the 49ers. I said they would, just like they did in the first 8, start slow and then go on a roll against bad teams. They'll likely win their last two games (assuming they try to beat Arizona) and have just one win in that span against a team with a record above .500. I still don;t know how good they are, but with Crabtree back, they might have a chance to beat the teams they couldn't in their 6-4 start.
2.) Carolina Panthers (10-4 = 328-208)
The Panthers are really good, and now if they beat the Saints and the Falcons, they'll get the #2 seed. This is after a 1-3 start (where they blew their 2nd loss) and came out of that four game stretch with a soulless 22-6 loss to Arizona. The Panthers had the #2 seed at 12-4 in 2008 and that didn't go well, but I think this one won't end with a 5-interception performance by Cam Newton. Let's hope, at least.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (12-2 = 380-205)
The Seahawks are really good. End of story.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 13-3 (W @HOU; W @OAK)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (W vs.MIN; W vs.BAL)
3.) Indianapolis Colts = 11-5 (W @KC; W vs.JAX)
4.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (L @BAL; W vs.BUF)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (L vs.IND; L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 10-6 (W @BUF; W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3 (W vs.ARZ; L vs.STL)
2.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (W vs.NO; W @ATL)
3.) Chicago Bears = 10-6 (W @PHI; W vs.GB)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles = 9-7 (L vs.CHI; W @DAL)
5.) New Orleans Saints = 11-5 (L @CAR; W vs.TB)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (W vs.ATL; L @ARZ)
Award Watch
MVP
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
3.) Jamaal Charles (RB-KC)
4.) Russell Wilson (QB-SEA)
5.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Thankfully, the Patriots lost, because if Peyton Manning lost the MVP to Tom Brady when Brady had his, like, 9th best season, I may have gave up on football. Peyton Manning is the MVP. He's been so good that despite his relatively average performance over the past 8 games, he's put up stats in that period that would be the best in the NFL in that span aside from the fluke that is Nick Foles. Rivers should get serious consideration as he's having the 2nd best year of any QB without his top two receivers from preseason. After that are the best offensive players from good teams.
Offensive Player of the Year
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Josh Gordon (WR-CLE)
3.) LeSean McCOy (RB-PHI)
I think the only way Manning gets this is if he breaks Brady's TD record, but I think he will. Gordon is having a historic per-game season that should be rewarded with at least a 1st-team All-Pro nod. McCoy is having the best season of any RB, but Jamaal Charles is close. If Charles does get to 10 TDs receiving and rushing, I can see him winning the entire award, though, as that would be historic. Of course, Manning throwing 51 or more TDs would be historic as well, but who cares about Manning winning yet another award?
Defensive Player of the Year
1.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
2.) Robert QUinn (DE-STL)
3.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
This is honestly a hard award this year, as the best defenses have no clear candidate, and the three superstars either had to miss games because of alcoholism or suspension, and Watt has been slightly worse than he was last year. Mathis gets my nod right now for having the most sacks in the NFL on a defense that has few other big pieces. People should be concentarting on him, but he's still made plays. Quinn has been about as good as Mathis while being better against the run. Watt has probably been the best defensive player in the NFL this season, but he'll never get the award because he wasn't as good as last year, when he had arguably the best defensive season ever.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Keenan Allen (WR-SD)
2.) Eddie Lacy (RB-GB)
3.) EJ Manuel (QB-BUF)
Eddie Lacy likely wins this award because the mass media will give him the credit for keeping the Packers playoff hopes alive without Rodgers, but what Allen has given the Chargers is more important. The San Diego Chargers have had the 2nd best passing game this season, and that is without their #1 and #2 receivers on their depth chart from July. Denarrio Alexander was lost for the season before the regular season, and Malcolm Floyd was lost on a scary neck injury in Week 2. The Chargers have needed guys to step-up, and while the continual success of Danny Woodhead is a large part of it, so is the rise of Keenan Allen. As for Manuel, I have no idea who to put at #3. He's been the best rookie QB outside of Mike Glennon. In fact, I probably should've put Glennon, but its too late now.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Sheldon Richardson (DT-NYJ)
2.) Tyrann Mathieu (CB-ARZ)
3.) Star Louteleilei (DT-CAR)
This ranking isn't based on who will win, because apart from Ndamukong Suh, who led all Defensive Tackles in sacks in 2010, interior D-Lineman never win the award. I don't know who will win, but Sheldon Richardson should. He's been as good against the run as Muhammad Wilkerson. He's been a monster in the heart of that defense, and a 3-down D-Tackle as a rookie, which is exceptional. Mathieu was really good for a 3rd round safety, and his improvement over the course of the season is commendable. I really hope he recovers from his ACL/MCL tear. Louteleilei has been 80% as good as Richardson, which is saying a lot about both players.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ New York Jets (6-8) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "These Games Don't Matter" Sunday, as these are the three games that have no playoff implications. Of course the NFL couldn't have predicted this, but they did a good job of getting a host of playoff important matchups this late in the season. These games are all pretty unwatchable, and alas, I won't be watching them,
13.) New York Giants (5-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-7) (4:05 - FOX)
12.) Denver Broncos (11-3) @ Houston Texans (2-12) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Miami Dolphins (8-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-9) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Dallas Cowboys (7-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-11) (1:00- FOX)
9.) Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ San Diego Chargers (7-7) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "One Teams is Playing for Something, One Team Isn't; Is it This Obvious?" Sunday, as all six of these games have won team fighting for a playoff spot against one team who isn't. Some of these are woefully one-sided, like Denver's trip to Houston that the NFL probably wished was far more important, or the Raiders going to San Diego. Some are just boring, like the Giants trip to Detroit in a potentially irrelevant game, and the Cowboys trip to Washington, a rare NFC East game this late in the season that shouldn't warrant more than three minutes of time on Sportscenter.
7.) Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "NBC banked on something great but could get Something Awful" Sunday, as the Bears and Eagles play a game that could be meainingless for the Eagles. If the Cowboys win earlier in the day (a likelihood, given their playing against the falling apart Redskins), this game will be meaningless for the Eagles. Win or lose, they need to beat an 8-7 Dallas to win the NFC East. Of course, for the Bears it will be really meaningful. This is an underrated rivalry, as these two played some memorable games in the mid-00s' ('07, '08, '10 all had good ones), but it could be meainingless.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) @ Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Arizona Cardinals (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-2) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "One tangentially in it team Tries to Spoil Shit" as the Steelers and Seahawks are basically locked into not being in the playoffs and being the #1 seed respectively. Neither game is really meaningful for those teams. For the other, it is incredibly so. A loss here ends the season for the Cardinals. A loss here basically ends the season for the Packers. I still feel like Matt Flynn will start once again, allowing the Steelers to get some nice revenge for Super Bowl XLV. Has a Super Bowl revenge game ever been so depressing so quickly?
4.) Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "The Meaningful, Meaningless Game", as the 49ers are basically locked into a Wild Card with nothing to play for, but of course this is the final game, in all likelihood, at Candlestick Park. That stadium has seen more history than every current NFL stadium apart from Lambaeu Field. That field hosted the NFC Championship Game in 1981, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1997 and 2011. It's held countless other playoff games and scores of Hall of Famers played on that field. It should get a grand exit from the NFL stage. It is one of the few hallowed grounds left. Sure, Candlestick is outdated, but as someone who is too young to have been a fan during the dynastic 49ers, even I felt a chill watching the 2011 NFC Championship Game at Candlestick. I'll miss it.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Do You Want To Show Too Much" Sunday, as the great likelihood is that these two teams will meet in two weeks in Indianapolis in the #5 vs. #4 matchup. Of course, each team has something to play for, as the Chiefs can get the #1 seed if the Broncos slip up again, and the Colts can get the #2 seed if the Bengals and Patriots slip up again. How much do they show, knowing that each of their goals is unlikely? Also, after being the NFL's giant killer in September and October (and early November), can the Colts even be competitive against a good team?
2.) New England Patriots (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Of Course This Game Means Something" Sunday, as a game that had little to offer aside from the rivalry aspect three weeks ago is offering a hell of a lot. A Patriots loss here gives the Pats a likely game to play in Wild Card Weekend (they lose tiebreakers to both the Bengals and Colts if they end up with the same record). A Ravens loss hurts their playoff chances considerably, and a Ravens win makes the Week 17 game in Cincinnati a game for the AFC North Title (no matter what happens with Cincinnati). These teams also don't like each other. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed may be gone, but Terrell Suggs is still there, and so is that Baltimore crowd. Great, great game.
1.) New Orleans Saints (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)\
Two weeks ago I lamented that their first matchup in New Orleans might be meaningless, as even with a split the Saints would win the division. Well, the one case in which that didn't hold was if the Saints were knocked off, and they were. Now, this game is as meaningful as any. It harkens back to old classic Week 16 games that were de-facto playoff games. The best we had was in 2008, where both conferences #1 and #2 seeds played each other with the winner having the inside track at the #1 seed. The Titans blew out the Steelers in Tennessee, and the Giants beat Carolina in New York in an OT thriller. I hope this game is as good as that Panthers @ Giants game. The Panthers have a chance to get the inside track at a bye, and ensure that a 3rd meeting between these two teams is not in the dome.
