Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
JAGUARS (+2.5) over Texans (CORRECT = 1-0)
Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS (CORRECT = 2-0)
RAVENS (-6) over Vikings (WRONG = 2-1)
JETS (-2.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 3-1)
Bills (+3) over BUCCANEERS (WRONG = 3-2)
Falcons (+3) over PACKERS (CORRECT = 4-2)
PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Browns (WRONG = 4-3)
BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 5-3)
Lions (+3) over EAGLES (WRONG = 5-4)
Dolphins (+3.5) over STEELERS (CORRECT = 6-4)
BRONCOS (-13) over Titans (CORRECT = 7-4)
CARDINALS (-6) over Rams (CORRECT = 8-4)
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants (CORRECT = 9-4)
49ERS (-2.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 9-5)
Panthers (+3.5) over SAINTS (WRONG = 9-6)
BEARS (+1.5) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 10-6)
Week 14: 10-6
Year-to-Date: 109-80-3
Power Rankings
AFC
The "See you in 2014" Quintro
16.) Houston Texans (2-11 = 250-350)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9 = 201-372)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-9 = 264-337)
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-9 = 273-334)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-9 = 257-324)
The Browns gave a good effort this week, the Texans gave a good effort last week, the Raiders have given good efforts about half the time, the Bills the same, and the Jaguars are an (tied for) NFL best 4-1 in their last five games. Basically, the NFL is really bereft of a horrible team this year. Washington is probably the worst overall. If the Texans end the season on a 14 game losing streak, they might be close, but they still have so much talent that they join Tampa Bay as a potential Top-5 pick with the obvious ability to win 10 games in 2014 and make the playoffs.
The "Everyone Wants to Play You in the #3 vs #6 game" Duo
11.) Tennessee Titans (5-8 = 292-318)
10.) New York Jets (6-7 = 226-337)
These two teams are in it, although saying that about Tennessee is quite a stretch. Still, the Titans don't merit being included in that last group. They might have been a playoff team had Jake Locker stayed healthy all year. They have a major decision coming up next offseason with Jake Locker, so for the Titans sake I hope he stays healthy next year so they can make a sound decision instead of basing it on 'what-may-be's'. The Jets also have a tough decision on whether they should keep Rex Ryan. Frankly, when the return of a supremely-petulant Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley represents a 'major' upgrade in a teams skill position group, it is pretty obvious that the Jets cobbling together six wins is quite a feat. Rex Ryan deserves another year, as this team is far more steady than the groups from 2011-12.
The "No One, except for New England, Wants to Play You in the #3 vs #6 game" Uno
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8 = 291-312)
Am I the only one who thought Ben Roethlisberger's lateral to Antonio Brown before Brown almost scored was forwards? Since Brown stepped out of bounds (honestly, credit to the ref for actually seeing that live and not subconciously getting caught up in what was going on) it became moot, but I think Ben's forward momentum pushed the ball forward. Anyway, that step out of bounds cost the Steelers all hope of a playoff spot unless like 20 things go their way. However, I'm sure Indianapolis and Cincinnati hope those things don't go Pittsburgh's way. Cincinnati gets the chance to take care of the Steelers themselves in Pittsburgh on SNF next week.
The "One of These Teams will enter the playoffs to a Deluge of 'They're Coming In Hot' Stories" Trio
8.) Miami Dolphins (7-6 = 286-276)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6 = 278-261)
6.) San Diego Chargers (6-7 = 316-291)
Seriously, the chance of one of these three teams winning out is reasonable. More likely the Ravens get in at 9-7 (with the head-to-head over Baltimore), but if one of them does run the table to win the wild card (especially if it is miraculously San Diego) we're going to get bombarded with "This team is peaking at the right time" talk heading into the playoffs. Honestly, if it's the Ravens, considering what they did last year, we may get it even if they back in at 9-7. The tiebreakers get pretty easy if the Broncos take care of business against San Diego, making the Dolphins vs. Ravens race pretty simple. In the end, it probably comes down to whether one of the two teams can beat New England at home the next two weeks, and I really give them equal chances.
The "If One of these teams wins the Super Bowl, it's Worse than January Madness" Duo
5.) Indianapolis Colts (8-5 = 313-316)
Despite them being in basically every way a better version of last year's 11-5 team, they seem worse. After starting the year with three wins in their biggest games, they've been blown out in their last two 'big games', both on the road. In honesty, they have one good road performance all year, and they'll need to win two road games to make the Super Bowl. The good news for us Colts fans: Andrew Luck's only in his 2nd year, so when Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are gone, he'll still be there. Of course, hopefully Trent Ricahrdson won't be.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3 = 343-224)
The Chiefs did just win 45-10, so it begats the question once again: "who are the real Chiefs". Are they the team that started 4-0 with a good point differential to show for it? Are they team who then went 5-0 with close wins against mediocre teams? Are they the team who lost three straight against the two best QBs they'll face all year long? Or is it the team that resembled the one that started 4-0 in their dominant win in Washington? Who knows. All I know is they have a shot in a playoff game with their defense and an offense that is probably underrated at this point, but they probably can't win three road games in a row.
The "If One of these teams doesn't win the AFC, it's January Madness" Trio
3.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 349-287)
With the loss of Gronk and another ridiculous win, the Pats fall below Cincinnati for me. The race for the #2 seed should get really interesting over the next two weeks. The Pats have two tough road games back to back (Miami & Baltimore) and I would be both stunned and impressed if they came away 2-0 in those games. Pats fans want to compare this team to the 2003 unit that had some crazy wins as well, but that Patriots team never trailed over their final six regular season games and first two playoff games. This team isn't that. Having to make big comebacks against bad teams is concerning.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4 = 334-244)
What the Bengals have done without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall is so commendable. They really haven't missed a beat. Their one loss since then was in OT in Baltimore, not exactly an easy place to play. With their win over the Patriots, they are in decent position to steal the #2 seed, but they have some landmines. First is this trip to Pittsburgh, but the bigger one may be in Week 17 against the Ravens, who may need that game to make it to the playoffs. What is really nice to see is Andy Dalton having a fantastic game once again. If Marvin Jones continues his good play they really could be dangerous in the playoffs, and only better in 2014 when Hall and Atkins are back.
1.) Denver Broncos (11-2 = 515-345)
Twice now, the Broncos have found themselves down 10+ at home with less than half the 2nd quarter remaining. First it was 21-7 to Washington (and that was in the 3rd quarter), and then the Titans down 21-10. They finished those two games outscoring their opponent 79-7. They have a level no one else in the AFC can match. Manning also dispelled those "he can't throw in the cold" arguments. Honestly, I think what really was hampering him in New England was his ankle. The last two weeks, whether it was cold or hot, he's deep ball has looked better than it has since like 2007. He's starting to look like he did early in the season, but he's also now taking advantage of corners playing up to stop the screen game by hitting stuff over the top. This is getting scary.
NFC
The "Hey, we were Playoff Teams Last Year" Trio
16.) Washington Redskins (3-10 = 279-407)
15.) Atlanta Falcons (3-10 = 282-362)
14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1 = 315-395)
None of them played each other last season in the playoffs, so the comparison isn't directly fun, but all of these teams were playoff teams the previous year. The Falcons even started 10-0 and went 13-2 in games they tried to win in the regular season. Yes, they've been decimated by injuries, but Matt Ryan is having a decent season. The blame lies on that defense. The Redskins are just a mess right now, especially more so given the recent reports out of Washington regarding Shanahan's best efforts to get himself out of there. It is amazing how quickly the Redskins have ruined their two division titles in the Snyder era. Both years they were coming off 10-6 seasons and their head coach was fired (I'm assuming Shanahan is gone), as Norv Turner was shown the door in 2000. The Vikings actually have played decently well in recent weeks, but their never-ending carousel of QBs will never allow them to do anything much.
The "We are Spoilers, But We'll Probably All Fail" Trio
13.) New York Giants (5-8 = 251-334)
12.) St. Louis Rams (5-8 = 289-308)
11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9 = 244-291)
These three teams are good enough to ruin someone's playoff plans, but will they? They each have one good opportunity to ruin someone's shit. The Giants play Detroit in Detroit in two weeks, and if they beat the Lions they can really open up that NFC North for the Bears or Packers. The Rams host the Saints next week. The last time they played the Saints, the Rams beat them 31-21 in a game that was not flukey in the slightest. They sacked Brees six times, picked him off twice and held the Saints, who set a record for yards gained in a season, to 283 yards. The Buccaneers have two chances, with them hosting the 49ers in this week and a trip to New Orleans in Week 17. The more interesting one is the 49ers game, as if they beat the 49ers that can open up the race for the #6 seed to Arizona (and come closer to giving me the win-and-your-in scenario in Week 17 in Arizona). Chances any of these teams actually pull these off: close to zero.
The "Muddled Mess of the NFC, All of Whom are Substantially Better than the #6 seed in the AFC" Sexto
10.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 357-348)
It is sad to see a Monte Kiffin defense so absolutely powerless to do anything. It is clear he lost it sometime around the Buccaneers four-game losing streak to end 2008 (where they started 9-3, but missed the playoffs) and really never refound it. He should just retire before people remember this stint in Dallas. However, for all the people who are saying "I bet they would love to have Rob Ryan back!", well the Cowboys defense was quite bad last year as well.
9.) Green Bay Packers (6-6-1 = 316-326)
The Packers are somehow in this, with arguably the easiest closing schedule of the three teams. Of course, it seems more and more likely that Aaron Rodgers won't play this Sunday against Dallas, and while I wouldn't put it past the Cowboys to lose to Matt Flynn when fighting for their playoff life, it's more realistic that they can't. The Rodgers injury really killed this season, and it has been a while since a midseason injury has done this to a potential Super Bowl team. The Packers were 5-2 with Rodgers playing, facing a seemingly easy schedule (the fact the Packers have lost most of their games since doesn't change the fact that they were all winnable with Rodgers). That's all gone, a wasted year in a career that already had three in the beginning.
8.) Detroit Lions (7-6 = 346-321)
I hate this Lions team. They have all the talent in the world, but so little fight. They threw away that game by fumbling early and seemingly not realizing that the Eagles started to play once the snow finally calmed down. I don't know if they thought a 14-0 lead was insurmountable, or just that their D-Line couldn't get moving in the snow to stop Shady McCoy. Anyway, they have tough possibly-tough home games ahead, but they know that if they win out, they'll win the division.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-5 = 334-301)
The Eagles may just be good and I'm giving them a hard time. I wonder if it hurts Andy Reid's Coach of the Year campaign when the man who replaced him in Philadelphia is the likely runner-up. Nick Foles finally threw an interception and didn't react well to the show, but if they can run it like that it may not mater. They have an easy game next, but a crucial one with Chicago in two weeks. The division is there's but it would be a lot easier if they wouldn't have to win in Week 17 to get it.
6.) Arizona Cardinals (8-5 = 305-257)
It is such a shame that this fun Cardinals team with their crazy defense will not make the playoffs. So many things broke right for them, and they can't keep this nucleus of defensive players around forever. 10-win seasons without a playoff appearance are never a good thing. The 2010 Giants reacted well, but the 2011 Buccaneers did not. Considering how tough that division is, and how the Rams could end up with a Top-5 pick from Washington (if not #1 overall), it might just get harder for them to ever win 10 games again with Carson Palmer.
5.) Chicago Bears (7-6 = 368-360)
I don't know how much better they would have been had Jay Cutler not gotten hurt, but they wouldn't be any worse. The idea that McCown is better than Cutler is laughable, but the idea that Marc Trestman, who was the QB Coach and then Offensive Coordinator for a similar mid-30's journeyman-turned-star in Rich Gannon, is making McCown into a good player is very real. He was also making Cutler into a good one. It is hard to think of the Bears this way, but they are a legitimately very good offensive team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they might be the as scary as the Panthers or 49ers, just in the opposite way. Basically, what I am saying is I would love to see their receivers go up against Sherman and the Seahawks defense.
The "Screwed Wild Cards" Duo
4.) San Francisco 49ers (9-4 = 316-214)
3.) Carolina Panthers (9-4 = 298-188)
I'm keeping these two teams together because they are quite similar. Both have very good to great defenses. Both have mobile QBs, and with his weapons, the Kaepernick led passing attack isn't too much worse than the one led by Cam. Both teams want to have their run game work and dominate TOP. Both teams also had one big road game against a divisional rival and got blasted (26-3 in Seattle for San Francsico and 31-13 in Carolina for New Orleans). Even when they played, it was a one-point game won by the Panthers. The Panthers are the likely #5 seed, while the 49ers are the likely #6, though I have a feeling each would like to switch. The Panthers are probably more likely to go to Seattle and win than go into New Orleans again and win, and I feel like the 49ers are more likely to win in New Orleans (where they should have won this year) than in Seattle. If they stay #5/#6 for the Panthers and 49ers, they'll be slated to play the wrong team (assuming both win), which would be far less interesting. So, for that, I hope the Panthers get swept by the Saints, and the 49ers win out.
The "If One of Us Doesn't Make the Super Bowl, Not Only is the Playoffs January Madness, but Home Field Advantage Might Be Dead"
2.) New Orleans Saints (10-3 = 343-243)
1.) Seattle Seahawks (11-2 = 357-205)
These teams are so good at home, and the Saints so average on the road, that the rest of the season in the NFC seems way too boring right now. Some combination of Panthers/49ers/Eagles/Bears/Lions/Cowboys/Packers is going to go to both New Orleans and Seattle and get housed, and then the Saints are going to go to Seattle themselves and get housed themselves. There have been seemingly predictible postseasons before, but these may be the two most dominant home teams in some time, outside of those that reside in New England. Of course, the 2007 postseason was supposed to be incredibly boring, but ended up surprising us all with the Chargers pulling off the miracle win in Indianapolis to avoid giving us all Super Bowl 41-and-three-quarters. It is more likely that one of these two don't make it to the NFC Championship Game than both of them making it, but it really doesn't seem that way. Let's hope that whoever plays New England in round 2 puts up a fight, or this could be a boring playoffs.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2 (W vs.SD; W @HOU; W @OAK)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4 (W @PIT; W vs.MIN; W vs.BAL)
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (L @MIA; W @BAL; W vs.BUF)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6 (W vs.HOU; L @KC; W vs.JAX)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 12-4 (W @OAK; W vs.IND; L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7 (W vs.NE; L @BUF; W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 14-2 (W @NYG; W vs.ARZ; W vs.STL)
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4 (W @STL; L @CAR; W vs.TB)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles = 10-6 (W @MIN; L vs.CHI; W @DAL)
4.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (W vs.BAL; W vs.NYG; W @MIN)
5.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (W vs.NYJ; W vs.NO; W @ATL)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (W @TB; W vs.ATL; L @ARZ)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
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5.) San Diego Chargers (7-6)
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-3) @ St. Louis Rams (5-8) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (4:25 - FOX)
2.) New England Patriots (10-3) @ Miami Dolphins (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6) @ Detroit Lions (7-6) (MNF - ESPN)
JAGUARS (+2.5) over Texans (CORRECT = 1-0)
Chiefs (-3) over REDSKINS (CORRECT = 2-0)
RAVENS (-6) over Vikings (WRONG = 2-1)
JETS (-2.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 3-1)
Bills (+3) over BUCCANEERS (WRONG = 3-2)
Falcons (+3) over PACKERS (CORRECT = 4-2)
PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Browns (WRONG = 4-3)
BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 5-3)
Lions (+3) over EAGLES (WRONG = 5-4)
Dolphins (+3.5) over STEELERS (CORRECT = 6-4)
BRONCOS (-13) over Titans (CORRECT = 7-4)
CARDINALS (-6) over Rams (CORRECT = 8-4)
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants (CORRECT = 9-4)
49ERS (-2.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 9-5)
Panthers (+3.5) over SAINTS (WRONG = 9-6)
BEARS (+1.5) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 10-6)
Week 14: 10-6
Year-to-Date: 109-80-3
Power Rankings
AFC
The "See you in 2014" Quintro
16.) Houston Texans (2-11 = 250-350)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9 = 201-372)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-9 = 264-337)
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-9 = 273-334)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-9 = 257-324)
The Browns gave a good effort this week, the Texans gave a good effort last week, the Raiders have given good efforts about half the time, the Bills the same, and the Jaguars are an (tied for) NFL best 4-1 in their last five games. Basically, the NFL is really bereft of a horrible team this year. Washington is probably the worst overall. If the Texans end the season on a 14 game losing streak, they might be close, but they still have so much talent that they join Tampa Bay as a potential Top-5 pick with the obvious ability to win 10 games in 2014 and make the playoffs.
The "Everyone Wants to Play You in the #3 vs #6 game" Duo
11.) Tennessee Titans (5-8 = 292-318)
10.) New York Jets (6-7 = 226-337)
These two teams are in it, although saying that about Tennessee is quite a stretch. Still, the Titans don't merit being included in that last group. They might have been a playoff team had Jake Locker stayed healthy all year. They have a major decision coming up next offseason with Jake Locker, so for the Titans sake I hope he stays healthy next year so they can make a sound decision instead of basing it on 'what-may-be's'. The Jets also have a tough decision on whether they should keep Rex Ryan. Frankly, when the return of a supremely-petulant Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley represents a 'major' upgrade in a teams skill position group, it is pretty obvious that the Jets cobbling together six wins is quite a feat. Rex Ryan deserves another year, as this team is far more steady than the groups from 2011-12.
The "No One, except for New England, Wants to Play You in the #3 vs #6 game" Uno
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8 = 291-312)
Am I the only one who thought Ben Roethlisberger's lateral to Antonio Brown before Brown almost scored was forwards? Since Brown stepped out of bounds (honestly, credit to the ref for actually seeing that live and not subconciously getting caught up in what was going on) it became moot, but I think Ben's forward momentum pushed the ball forward. Anyway, that step out of bounds cost the Steelers all hope of a playoff spot unless like 20 things go their way. However, I'm sure Indianapolis and Cincinnati hope those things don't go Pittsburgh's way. Cincinnati gets the chance to take care of the Steelers themselves in Pittsburgh on SNF next week.
The "One of These Teams will enter the playoffs to a Deluge of 'They're Coming In Hot' Stories" Trio
8.) Miami Dolphins (7-6 = 286-276)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6 = 278-261)
6.) San Diego Chargers (6-7 = 316-291)
Seriously, the chance of one of these three teams winning out is reasonable. More likely the Ravens get in at 9-7 (with the head-to-head over Baltimore), but if one of them does run the table to win the wild card (especially if it is miraculously San Diego) we're going to get bombarded with "This team is peaking at the right time" talk heading into the playoffs. Honestly, if it's the Ravens, considering what they did last year, we may get it even if they back in at 9-7. The tiebreakers get pretty easy if the Broncos take care of business against San Diego, making the Dolphins vs. Ravens race pretty simple. In the end, it probably comes down to whether one of the two teams can beat New England at home the next two weeks, and I really give them equal chances.
The "If One of these teams wins the Super Bowl, it's Worse than January Madness" Duo
5.) Indianapolis Colts (8-5 = 313-316)
Despite them being in basically every way a better version of last year's 11-5 team, they seem worse. After starting the year with three wins in their biggest games, they've been blown out in their last two 'big games', both on the road. In honesty, they have one good road performance all year, and they'll need to win two road games to make the Super Bowl. The good news for us Colts fans: Andrew Luck's only in his 2nd year, so when Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are gone, he'll still be there. Of course, hopefully Trent Ricahrdson won't be.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3 = 343-224)
The Chiefs did just win 45-10, so it begats the question once again: "who are the real Chiefs". Are they the team that started 4-0 with a good point differential to show for it? Are they team who then went 5-0 with close wins against mediocre teams? Are they the team who lost three straight against the two best QBs they'll face all year long? Or is it the team that resembled the one that started 4-0 in their dominant win in Washington? Who knows. All I know is they have a shot in a playoff game with their defense and an offense that is probably underrated at this point, but they probably can't win three road games in a row.
The "If One of these teams doesn't win the AFC, it's January Madness" Trio
3.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 349-287)
With the loss of Gronk and another ridiculous win, the Pats fall below Cincinnati for me. The race for the #2 seed should get really interesting over the next two weeks. The Pats have two tough road games back to back (Miami & Baltimore) and I would be both stunned and impressed if they came away 2-0 in those games. Pats fans want to compare this team to the 2003 unit that had some crazy wins as well, but that Patriots team never trailed over their final six regular season games and first two playoff games. This team isn't that. Having to make big comebacks against bad teams is concerning.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4 = 334-244)
What the Bengals have done without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall is so commendable. They really haven't missed a beat. Their one loss since then was in OT in Baltimore, not exactly an easy place to play. With their win over the Patriots, they are in decent position to steal the #2 seed, but they have some landmines. First is this trip to Pittsburgh, but the bigger one may be in Week 17 against the Ravens, who may need that game to make it to the playoffs. What is really nice to see is Andy Dalton having a fantastic game once again. If Marvin Jones continues his good play they really could be dangerous in the playoffs, and only better in 2014 when Hall and Atkins are back.
1.) Denver Broncos (11-2 = 515-345)
Twice now, the Broncos have found themselves down 10+ at home with less than half the 2nd quarter remaining. First it was 21-7 to Washington (and that was in the 3rd quarter), and then the Titans down 21-10. They finished those two games outscoring their opponent 79-7. They have a level no one else in the AFC can match. Manning also dispelled those "he can't throw in the cold" arguments. Honestly, I think what really was hampering him in New England was his ankle. The last two weeks, whether it was cold or hot, he's deep ball has looked better than it has since like 2007. He's starting to look like he did early in the season, but he's also now taking advantage of corners playing up to stop the screen game by hitting stuff over the top. This is getting scary.
NFC
The "Hey, we were Playoff Teams Last Year" Trio
16.) Washington Redskins (3-10 = 279-407)
15.) Atlanta Falcons (3-10 = 282-362)
14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1 = 315-395)
None of them played each other last season in the playoffs, so the comparison isn't directly fun, but all of these teams were playoff teams the previous year. The Falcons even started 10-0 and went 13-2 in games they tried to win in the regular season. Yes, they've been decimated by injuries, but Matt Ryan is having a decent season. The blame lies on that defense. The Redskins are just a mess right now, especially more so given the recent reports out of Washington regarding Shanahan's best efforts to get himself out of there. It is amazing how quickly the Redskins have ruined their two division titles in the Snyder era. Both years they were coming off 10-6 seasons and their head coach was fired (I'm assuming Shanahan is gone), as Norv Turner was shown the door in 2000. The Vikings actually have played decently well in recent weeks, but their never-ending carousel of QBs will never allow them to do anything much.
The "We are Spoilers, But We'll Probably All Fail" Trio
13.) New York Giants (5-8 = 251-334)
12.) St. Louis Rams (5-8 = 289-308)
11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9 = 244-291)
These three teams are good enough to ruin someone's playoff plans, but will they? They each have one good opportunity to ruin someone's shit. The Giants play Detroit in Detroit in two weeks, and if they beat the Lions they can really open up that NFC North for the Bears or Packers. The Rams host the Saints next week. The last time they played the Saints, the Rams beat them 31-21 in a game that was not flukey in the slightest. They sacked Brees six times, picked him off twice and held the Saints, who set a record for yards gained in a season, to 283 yards. The Buccaneers have two chances, with them hosting the 49ers in this week and a trip to New Orleans in Week 17. The more interesting one is the 49ers game, as if they beat the 49ers that can open up the race for the #6 seed to Arizona (and come closer to giving me the win-and-your-in scenario in Week 17 in Arizona). Chances any of these teams actually pull these off: close to zero.
The "Muddled Mess of the NFC, All of Whom are Substantially Better than the #6 seed in the AFC" Sexto
10.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 357-348)
It is sad to see a Monte Kiffin defense so absolutely powerless to do anything. It is clear he lost it sometime around the Buccaneers four-game losing streak to end 2008 (where they started 9-3, but missed the playoffs) and really never refound it. He should just retire before people remember this stint in Dallas. However, for all the people who are saying "I bet they would love to have Rob Ryan back!", well the Cowboys defense was quite bad last year as well.
9.) Green Bay Packers (6-6-1 = 316-326)
The Packers are somehow in this, with arguably the easiest closing schedule of the three teams. Of course, it seems more and more likely that Aaron Rodgers won't play this Sunday against Dallas, and while I wouldn't put it past the Cowboys to lose to Matt Flynn when fighting for their playoff life, it's more realistic that they can't. The Rodgers injury really killed this season, and it has been a while since a midseason injury has done this to a potential Super Bowl team. The Packers were 5-2 with Rodgers playing, facing a seemingly easy schedule (the fact the Packers have lost most of their games since doesn't change the fact that they were all winnable with Rodgers). That's all gone, a wasted year in a career that already had three in the beginning.
8.) Detroit Lions (7-6 = 346-321)
I hate this Lions team. They have all the talent in the world, but so little fight. They threw away that game by fumbling early and seemingly not realizing that the Eagles started to play once the snow finally calmed down. I don't know if they thought a 14-0 lead was insurmountable, or just that their D-Line couldn't get moving in the snow to stop Shady McCoy. Anyway, they have tough possibly-tough home games ahead, but they know that if they win out, they'll win the division.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-5 = 334-301)
The Eagles may just be good and I'm giving them a hard time. I wonder if it hurts Andy Reid's Coach of the Year campaign when the man who replaced him in Philadelphia is the likely runner-up. Nick Foles finally threw an interception and didn't react well to the show, but if they can run it like that it may not mater. They have an easy game next, but a crucial one with Chicago in two weeks. The division is there's but it would be a lot easier if they wouldn't have to win in Week 17 to get it.
6.) Arizona Cardinals (8-5 = 305-257)
It is such a shame that this fun Cardinals team with their crazy defense will not make the playoffs. So many things broke right for them, and they can't keep this nucleus of defensive players around forever. 10-win seasons without a playoff appearance are never a good thing. The 2010 Giants reacted well, but the 2011 Buccaneers did not. Considering how tough that division is, and how the Rams could end up with a Top-5 pick from Washington (if not #1 overall), it might just get harder for them to ever win 10 games again with Carson Palmer.
5.) Chicago Bears (7-6 = 368-360)
I don't know how much better they would have been had Jay Cutler not gotten hurt, but they wouldn't be any worse. The idea that McCown is better than Cutler is laughable, but the idea that Marc Trestman, who was the QB Coach and then Offensive Coordinator for a similar mid-30's journeyman-turned-star in Rich Gannon, is making McCown into a good player is very real. He was also making Cutler into a good one. It is hard to think of the Bears this way, but they are a legitimately very good offensive team, and if they make it into the playoffs, they might be the as scary as the Panthers or 49ers, just in the opposite way. Basically, what I am saying is I would love to see their receivers go up against Sherman and the Seahawks defense.
The "Screwed Wild Cards" Duo
4.) San Francisco 49ers (9-4 = 316-214)
3.) Carolina Panthers (9-4 = 298-188)
I'm keeping these two teams together because they are quite similar. Both have very good to great defenses. Both have mobile QBs, and with his weapons, the Kaepernick led passing attack isn't too much worse than the one led by Cam. Both teams want to have their run game work and dominate TOP. Both teams also had one big road game against a divisional rival and got blasted (26-3 in Seattle for San Francsico and 31-13 in Carolina for New Orleans). Even when they played, it was a one-point game won by the Panthers. The Panthers are the likely #5 seed, while the 49ers are the likely #6, though I have a feeling each would like to switch. The Panthers are probably more likely to go to Seattle and win than go into New Orleans again and win, and I feel like the 49ers are more likely to win in New Orleans (where they should have won this year) than in Seattle. If they stay #5/#6 for the Panthers and 49ers, they'll be slated to play the wrong team (assuming both win), which would be far less interesting. So, for that, I hope the Panthers get swept by the Saints, and the 49ers win out.
The "If One of Us Doesn't Make the Super Bowl, Not Only is the Playoffs January Madness, but Home Field Advantage Might Be Dead"
2.) New Orleans Saints (10-3 = 343-243)
1.) Seattle Seahawks (11-2 = 357-205)
These teams are so good at home, and the Saints so average on the road, that the rest of the season in the NFC seems way too boring right now. Some combination of Panthers/49ers/Eagles/Bears/Lions/Cowboys/Packers is going to go to both New Orleans and Seattle and get housed, and then the Saints are going to go to Seattle themselves and get housed themselves. There have been seemingly predictible postseasons before, but these may be the two most dominant home teams in some time, outside of those that reside in New England. Of course, the 2007 postseason was supposed to be incredibly boring, but ended up surprising us all with the Chargers pulling off the miracle win in Indianapolis to avoid giving us all Super Bowl 41-and-three-quarters. It is more likely that one of these two don't make it to the NFC Championship Game than both of them making it, but it really doesn't seem that way. Let's hope that whoever plays New England in round 2 puts up a fight, or this could be a boring playoffs.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2 (W vs.SD; W @HOU; W @OAK)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4 (W @PIT; W vs.MIN; W vs.BAL)
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (L @MIA; W @BAL; W vs.BUF)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6 (W vs.HOU; L @KC; W vs.JAX)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 12-4 (W @OAK; W vs.IND; L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7 (W vs.NE; L @BUF; W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 14-2 (W @NYG; W vs.ARZ; W vs.STL)
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4 (W @STL; L @CAR; W vs.TB)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles = 10-6 (W @MIN; L vs.CHI; W @DAL)
4.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (W vs.BAL; W vs.NYG; W @MIN)
5.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (W vs.NYJ; W vs.NO; W @ATL)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5 (W @TB; W vs.ATL; L @ARZ)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
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5.) San Diego Chargers (7-6)
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-3) @ St. Louis Rams (5-8) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (4:25 - FOX)
2.) New England Patriots (10-3) @ Miami Dolphins (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Baltimore Ravens (7-6) @ Detroit Lions (7-6) (MNF - ESPN)
