I have family over and had a way too busy Thanksgiving weekend to really do any picks, so I just took the week off. Of course, by Sunday's end I had talked myself into believing that I would have gone like 14-2 picking games, but let's just move on and call it lost.
Year to Date Picks: 99-74-3
In the NFL's final month, I switch to conference only Power Rankings. The NFL has gone to great lengths to have nearly all of the inter-conference games in the first 13 weeks, so this is extra applicable since we don't really get many high profile AFC vs. NFC games until the Super Bowl.
AFC
The "Isn't It Hilarious We're Still Mathematically Alive?!" Trio
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9 = 174-352)
15.) Houston Texans (2-10 = 230-323)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-8 = 237-300)
The AFC's race for the #6 seed is so bad right now that all three of these teams are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Hell, the Raiders, who have started Matt McGloin for a whole month now, are just two games back. Obviously, none have a real shot. Here's an interesting research study for me on a boring day: what was the earliest that each team in the NFL got to at least two wins. The Jaguars, who were historically bad through 8 games, are now just 3-1 in their last four. Somehow, they're still an underdog. The Texans might be the most talented 2-10 team ever. The Raiders may be the least disappointing 4-win team ever as well.
The "First Defectors from the Gang of Nine" Duo
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-8 = 267-307)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-8 = 231-297)
Two weeks ago, there were nine teams either 4-7, 4-6, or 5-5. These were the first two teams to basically play themselves out of the #6 seed. The Bills have only played one game since, and it wasn't like they were bad, but they lost any shot of the playoffs with a loss to two win Atlanta. The Browns continue to be the most loved bad team ever. People want them to be good partly because they want the Browns to be good, but also because the Browns have various connections to Bill Belichick. Teams that have Belichick ballwashers in their management/coaching always get the love (any team Romeo Crennel has coached for, the Browns now, the Buccaneers, Chip Kelly, Saban, etc.). Anyway, I'm not bitter. Let's just remember that Josh Gordon was picked by Mike Holmgren, who quite gutsily gave up a 2nd round pick in the Conditional Draft to pick him.
The "Alive but Basically Dead" Trio
11.) New York Jets (5-7 = 189-310)
10.) Tennessee Titans (5-7 = 264-267)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7 = 263-278)
I think it will take 9-7 to get the #6 seed, and I really can't see any of these teams running the table. Sure, if it comes down to 8-8, they have a shot, but even then the schedules remaining for each three are quite difficult. The Steelers might catch a break if Rodgers is shut down for the season making that game a lot more winnable, but all three of these teams are under .500, and really deserve to be that way. The Titans fans can do wonders by convincing themselves that had Jake Locker never been hurt in the beginning of the season they would be a likely front-runner for the #6 seed, and that could be true. The Jets might be the strangest team ever, good enough defensively to beat both the Saints and Jets, but with one of the worst point differentials in the NFL. The Steelers just started off way too slow, but it is commendable how they've responded first to their 0-4 start and then the 31-55 loss in New England.
The "One of Us Will Be the #6 Seed, and That #3 Seed Will be Terrified" Trio
8.) San Diego Chargers (5-7 = 279-277)
I like the fact that the Chargers and two other teams of the Trio have positive point differentials while the three 5-7 teams below have negative ones. To me, honestly, the Chargers are the best team of these three and the one I would fear the most sneaking into the playoffs purely because of how good Philip Rivers has been this season. They could've done some serious damage had either Donario Alexander or Malcolm Floyd not been lost for the season.
7.) Baltimore Ravens (6-6 = 249-235)
Before anyone tries to claim this is a return of the 2012 Ravens, a team that will sneak into the playoffs with no fanfare and go on a run (and oddly, they could get Indy in Round 1, with potential trips to Denver and New England after), they more resemble a worse version of the 2009 Ravens, a team that went 9-7 and smacked New England before losing handily to a better Colts team. The Ravens may be getting Dennis Pitta back soon, which could greatly increase their chances of doing some sort of damage in the playoffs, if they get there.
6.) Miami Dolphins (6-6 = 252-248)
The Dolphins don't have the tiebreaker with Baltimore, but they do have the easier schedule. It really, though, could come down to whether either team could beat the Patriots at home. They host New England in back-to-back weeks (Miami first). The Dolphins have a tough trip to Pittsburgh this week, while the Ravens have trips to both Detroit and Cincinnati. Again, the Dolphins have the edge in schedule, and as messy as the Incognito/Martin situation was, I'm rooting for the remaining Dolphins to get there and make sure Joe Philbin, who I think is a very good coach, desevedly doesn't lose his job.
The "Teams Everyone Will Want to Play in January" Duo
5.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4 = 285-274)
The Colts are almost exactly what they were a year ago, but in a far more variant way. What they were a year ago was a decent team that would play about the same each week, good enough to beat bad teams by a little and bad enough to lose to any good team. This year, they've been maddeningly inconsistent, good enough to beat the Broncos and Seahawks one more time than the rest of the NFL combined, and bad enough to get smacked by the Rams and Cardinals (I wonder how many Colts fans could have imagined splitting their games against the NFC West the way they did). The Colts without Reggie Wayne aren't a scary team, but it is commendable that they're going to make the playoffs again.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3 = 298-214)
The Chiefs were never as good as a 9-0 team (or 6-0, 7-0, 8-0 team), but they aren't as bad as they've been the last three weeks either. It is amazing that after getting 35 sacks in their first 7 games they've gotten just two the last five games, but that is still a good defense. Marcus Cooper has been good against anyone but Denver. Their offense is better than people think. They won't be an easy out in the playoffs, and I would give them a very good chance of beating Indianapolis in a potential 4-5 matchup.
The "If One of Us Don't Win the AFC, Just Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-4 = 292-216)
The Bengals are underrated. They might be really underrated. They've lost four games, but two of those losses were in OT (admittedly, they were extremely lucky to get one of those to OT). The other losses were to Chicago with Cutler in Chicago and a bad loss to the Browns. They're point differential is better than New England. They have a tiebreaker over them. If the Patriots slip up once more, the Bengals and their easy closing schedule are right there to snatch away that #2 seed. I don't really trust Cincinnati to finish 4-0, but this team is really good, and I can't imagine that that will change for another 2-3 years.
2.) New England Patriots (9-3 = 322-261)
The Patriots offense is good. I'll admit it. They aren't as good as the offenses from 2010-2012, but they are as good as the 2009 offense when it was fully healthy (so not when they without Welker and did whatever that performance could be called against Baltimore - and yes, I do love gratuitously mentioning that game). The defense is concerning because bad run defenses could kill them in potential playoff games with Cincinnati or Kansas City, but the pass defense has remained strong enough. Oh, and Stephen Gostkowski has been about as good as any replacement of Adam Vinatieri could have been.
1.) Denver Broncos (10-2 = 464-317)
Down 21-7 after blowing a 24-0 lead the week before, on the road against a good defense, Peyton Manning put up his best performance of his Broncos career. He had 400 yards on 22 completions, with only one completion really aided by YAC (the screen to Moreno). His deep ball was as good as it has been for years. Denver isn't always cold in January. In fact, it is considerably warmer on average in Denver in January than Foxboro/Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Philadelphia/Cleveland/New York/Buffalo/Green Bay/Chicago and all those other 'cold' places that people assume Denver is one of. It isn't.
NFC
The "Isn't it Hilarious That We Were Playoff Teams Last Year" Trio
16.) Washington Redskins (3-9 = 269-362)
15.) Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1 = 289-366)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (3-9 = 261-340)
A year after the AFC repeated five playoff teams from 2011, the three worst teams in the NFC were playoff teams from the previous year. The Falcons lost three games all season last year. It took them 12 games to win three this year. There really is no precedent for what has happened to the Falcons. 13-3 teams rarely ever fall this much (13-3 seems to be a different level from 12-4, as those teams fall back a lot more often). As far as those other teams, well, if you were asked to predict which NFC playoff teams would fall back to the levels of a Top-10 pick, those were the best two picks. The Vikings and Redskins both had magical rides based on running offenses, which are more inconsistent year-to-year. An interesting race to watch out for is which talented team that had a bad season will be able to draft Jedaveon Clowney. The Falcons and Texans are in a good competition for that distinction.
The "Spoiler Alerted" Quatro
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9 = 217-285)
12.) Green Bay Packers (5-6-1 = 294-305)
11.) St. Louis Rams (5-7 = 279-278)
10.) New York Giants (5-7 = 237-297)
With their loss to Dallas, the Giants are basically out of the race. Because of this, they enter a situation with these other teams of being potential spoilers. The Buccaneers and Rams both have the solid defense and sputtering big-play offenses with backup QBs (though Glennon has been 10x better than Freeman). The Packers could be an ultra-spoiler if Aaron Rodgers does return this season. The Packers are still in it from the outside, but they'll have to go two games better than Detroit (who has an easy schedule) to win the division, as they're 2-2-1 in the division to Detroit's 4-1, making it impossible for them to win a tiebreaker against Detroit. Of course, I don't know why I brought this up since with a tie on their record, they'll never got to a tiebreaker. Wow, that was a waste of time.
The "Boring, but Inevitably Interesting Division Races, plus the Team No One Wants in the Playoffs but Won't Get There" Quatro
9.) Dallas Cowboys (7-5 = 329-303)
How good are the Cowboys really? They've won close games against average teams the last two weeks, and didn't really look too great against the Raiders on Thanksgiving. They have the division squarely in their sights even if they lose that Week 17 game to Philadelphia as long as they end up with the same record. The big key for Dallas is that Green Bay game in two weeks, which could be the return of Aaron Rodgers. In reality, I don't know what would be worse for Tony Romo's reputation: losing to the Eagles in Week 17 to blow the division, or losing to the Panthers or Saints in the Wild Card Round at home.
8.) Chicago Bears (6-6 = 323-332)
The Bears probably shouldn't have beaten the Ravens in OT, so that loss to Minnesota they probably should have won should be forgotten. I think McCown's performances have regressed to a point where it obvious that Cutler would have been better healthy. Jay Cutler is a good QB, and together with Jeffery and Marshall they can do some special things next season. The problem is they have to replace their aging defensive stars soon.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-5 = 300-281)
Last year everyone was questioning the 'gimmick' offense the Redskins were running as they started 3-6, and then they rolled off seven straight wins to win the division. This year, everyone was questioning the 'gimmick' Chip Kelly offense as they started 3-5 (including scoring just 3 points on offense in those last two losses), and now they've rolled off 4 straight. Nick Foles will throw an interception, and this could easily be a repeat of Damon Huard's surreally low pick year in 2006, but he's a good QB, that defense is playing so much better than it did early in the season. This week's game against Detroit should be another good test of the Eagles, this time a test for the Eagles revamped defense.
6.) Arizona Cardinals (7-5 = 275-247)
I'm pretty sure no team wants to see Arizona in the playoffs in the NFC. I would gather that the Lions/Seahawks/Cowboys/Eagles would rather see San Francisco than Arizona. That might be wrong, but the Cardinals defense is capable of having scary good performances. The Cardinals offense has played better in recent weeks as Bruce Arians finally realized that Andre Ellington is just a lot better than Rashard Mendenhall. Carson Palmer has cut his interceptions. The offense is better than it was early in the season. They probably won't make it, and I don't know if they'll have a great chance going forward as that division is not getting any easier.
5.) Detroit Lions (7-5 = 326-287)
The Lions are the biggest wild card in the NFC Playoffs. What do we know about them: They are supremely talented at a lot of high impact positions. They have the single most unstoppable player in the NFL. They have the capability to dominate the line of scrimmage. They commit terrible penalties and stupid mistakes that could sabotage them. That is the resume of a team that could easily lose in round 1 to San Francisco by 20, but could also beat them and then go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks because Calvin Johnson owns Richard Sherman for a night. Anything can happen.
The "Team That Gets Credit for Previous Years But Will Get Blowed Out" Uno
4.) San Francisco 49ers (8-4 = 297-197)
Are the 49ers good? They're getting undue credit for beating a mediocre Rams team by 10 at home. They're 2.5 point favorites against the Seahawks this week (which means Vegas thinks the Seahawks are only about a point better on a neutral field). People think all the problems will be solved with Michael Crabtree back. Is that possible? Sure, but I think the problems with the 49ers were more systemic than solely personnel-based. Then again, they're the defending NFC Champions and Colin Kaepernick is the Greatest QB of All Time as per Ron Jaworski.
The "If One of Us Don't Win the NFC, Just Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) New Orleans Saints (9-3 = 312-230)
The Saints got embarrassed last night, which is a good does of medicine before they play a very similar type team on Sunday Night with their game against Carolina. The Panthers swept them last season, and I can't see that happening. You're never as good as you look at your best (their performance against Dallas) and you're never as bad as you look at your worst (last night against Seattle). One bad loss doesn't end their chances, but they may need some other savior to knock off the Seahawks for them.
2.) Carolina Panthers (9-3 = 285-157)
The Panthers were 1-3, and now are tied for the 2nd best record in the conference. Ultimately, the game that will kill them is their loss to Arizona compared to the Saints win against the Cardinals. Of course, the Panthers had to go to Arizona, while the Saints got them at home. The Panthers have a chance on Sunday, but even if they split and end up with the #5 seed, they'll be the best wild card team in years. Honestly, the last wild card team this good probably hasn't happened in the 32-team era. This is a special team right now.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (11-1 = 340-186)
The Seahawks are really good at home, and they won't have to play a meaningful game outside of home until the Super Bowl. That is a good thing. So, who can actually beat them in Seattle? For any team to do it, I think they have to score first, calm down that atmosphere immediately. Then, they have to dominate the Seahawks o-line, which teams have done on the road (Indianapolis, St. Louis, Arizona to a degree). Who can do this: Carolina is the obvious answer, and I think they only one that I would give better than a 30% chance of doing. The other team that has these traits is Detroit.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2 (W vs.TEN, W vs.SD, W @HOU, W @OAK)
2.) New England Patriots = 12-4 (W vs. CLE; L @MIA; W @BAL; W vs.BUF)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (W vs.IND; L @PIT, W vs.MIN, W vs.BAL)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6 (L @CIN, W vs.HOU, L @KC, W vs.JAX)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (W @WAS, L @OAK, W vs.IND, L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7 (W @PIT, W vs.NE, L @BUF, W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 14-2 (W @SF, L @NYG, W vs.ARZ, W vs.STL)
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4 (W vs.CAR, W @STL, L @CAR, W vs.TB)
3.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (W @PHI, W vs.BAL, W vs.NYG, L @MIN)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7 (L @CHI, W vs.GB, L @WAS, W vs.PHI)
5.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (L @NO, W vs.NYJ, W vs.NO, W @ATL)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 10-6 (L vs.SEA, W @TB, W vs.ATL, L@ARZ)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Houston Texans (2-10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) (TNF-NFLN)
15.) Atlanta Falcons (3-9) @ Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Buffalo Bills (4-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Oakland Raiders (4-8) @ New York Jets (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Why Do These Teams Even Play These Games" Sunday, as these are the four games with no real playoff implications. The Packers are tangentially attached to the NFC North playoff race, and the Jets are technically in the AFC race, but let's be real, neither is happening. Let's just move on, because there are some good games this week.
12.) Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (3-9) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tennessee Titans (5-7) @ Denver Broncos (10-2) (4:05 - CBS)
9.) Cleveland Browns (4-8) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Can Avoid Being Upset" Suunday, as four teams who have serious playoff aspirations (and in Kansas City, New England and Denver, are basically already in the playoffs) are playing four bad teams. Which is the most likely upset? Kansas City losing to Washington, but that's more because I can't see at all how the other three pull it off on the road against better teams. I won't be surprised if the Browns at least make the Patriots sweat it out for a half.
8.) St. Louis Rams (5-7) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
7.) New York Giants (5-7) @ San Diego Chargers (5-7) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Fun Late Games that are Probably Inevitably Meaningless" Sunday, as these two games have teams kind of in the playoff race (Arizona just a game back, the Chargers a game back themselves). Both home teams have a lot more to play for, but the Rams and Giants are both able spoilers.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (7-5) @ Chicago Bears (6-6) (MNF - ESPN)
5.) Miami Dolphins (6-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Wants to Live Forever" Sunday, as all four teams try to make it another week in this playoff race. The Cowboys need to stay in front of the NFC East (which they'll know their position before the game). The Bears need to win to put any sort of pressure on Detroit. A Dolphins win here really helps them as it makes their game next week against New England slightly less important. The Steelers aren't the best matchup for the Dolphins, but this current Steelers team can't really do the one thing the Dolphins are really bad at stopping in rushing the passer.
4.) Detroit Lions (7-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Show Me Sunday" as the Eagles and Lions play a really nice early game for two teams who have both playoff races and playoff positioning to play for. These games are quite rare. The Lions will really challenge the Eagles defense which has been good against lesser competition recently. The Eagles offense will get a good challenge up front against a dominant o-line with 10 days rest.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (11-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Least Meaningful Game That I will Still Watch" Sunday, as the Seahawks can lose this game and still be one win away from clinching the division, and still be a game-and-a-half up in the race for the #1 seed. The 49ers don't need to win this game, as they can lock up a playoff spot by just having the same record as the Cardinals at the end of the season. The Seahawks offense will get a good test against a good pass rush on the road, something they've struggled with at times.
2.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Wants to Potential Steal New England's #2 Seed" Sunday, as both of these teams are in safe positions in their division (the Colts win the division with a win here), but will have massive seeding implications here. First, the winner has the inside track at the #3 seed at worst (and avoiding Kansas City for a worse version of Kansas City in Baltimore or Miami). The winner also goes to 9-4, and will really pressure New England. Both the Colts and Bengals have winnable games left, and both would win tiebreakers over the Patriots with similar record (h2h win for Cincinnati, strength of victory for Indianapolis).
1.) Carolina Panthers (9-3) @ New Orleans Saints (9-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Can the Saints in Their Home to do Carolina what they had Done Upon Them" Sunday, as the Saints get to flex their muscles at home after being embarrassed. I'm almost positive were going to hear a lot of the 'the Saints will be angry' talk coming into this game, but I think the Panthers have a decent shot. They tackle well and can limit YAC just like San Francisco did in their near loss in New Orleans. The primetime part scares me, but the Saints lost some of their primetime aura after that mess in Seattle. It should be great, with the return leg in Carolina just two weeks later.
Year to Date Picks: 99-74-3
In the NFL's final month, I switch to conference only Power Rankings. The NFL has gone to great lengths to have nearly all of the inter-conference games in the first 13 weeks, so this is extra applicable since we don't really get many high profile AFC vs. NFC games until the Super Bowl.
AFC
The "Isn't It Hilarious We're Still Mathematically Alive?!" Trio
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9 = 174-352)
15.) Houston Texans (2-10 = 230-323)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-8 = 237-300)
The AFC's race for the #6 seed is so bad right now that all three of these teams are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Hell, the Raiders, who have started Matt McGloin for a whole month now, are just two games back. Obviously, none have a real shot. Here's an interesting research study for me on a boring day: what was the earliest that each team in the NFL got to at least two wins. The Jaguars, who were historically bad through 8 games, are now just 3-1 in their last four. Somehow, they're still an underdog. The Texans might be the most talented 2-10 team ever. The Raiders may be the least disappointing 4-win team ever as well.
The "First Defectors from the Gang of Nine" Duo
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-8 = 267-307)
12.) Cleveland Browns (4-8 = 231-297)
Two weeks ago, there were nine teams either 4-7, 4-6, or 5-5. These were the first two teams to basically play themselves out of the #6 seed. The Bills have only played one game since, and it wasn't like they were bad, but they lost any shot of the playoffs with a loss to two win Atlanta. The Browns continue to be the most loved bad team ever. People want them to be good partly because they want the Browns to be good, but also because the Browns have various connections to Bill Belichick. Teams that have Belichick ballwashers in their management/coaching always get the love (any team Romeo Crennel has coached for, the Browns now, the Buccaneers, Chip Kelly, Saban, etc.). Anyway, I'm not bitter. Let's just remember that Josh Gordon was picked by Mike Holmgren, who quite gutsily gave up a 2nd round pick in the Conditional Draft to pick him.
The "Alive but Basically Dead" Trio
11.) New York Jets (5-7 = 189-310)
10.) Tennessee Titans (5-7 = 264-267)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7 = 263-278)
I think it will take 9-7 to get the #6 seed, and I really can't see any of these teams running the table. Sure, if it comes down to 8-8, they have a shot, but even then the schedules remaining for each three are quite difficult. The Steelers might catch a break if Rodgers is shut down for the season making that game a lot more winnable, but all three of these teams are under .500, and really deserve to be that way. The Titans fans can do wonders by convincing themselves that had Jake Locker never been hurt in the beginning of the season they would be a likely front-runner for the #6 seed, and that could be true. The Jets might be the strangest team ever, good enough defensively to beat both the Saints and Jets, but with one of the worst point differentials in the NFL. The Steelers just started off way too slow, but it is commendable how they've responded first to their 0-4 start and then the 31-55 loss in New England.
The "One of Us Will Be the #6 Seed, and That #3 Seed Will be Terrified" Trio
8.) San Diego Chargers (5-7 = 279-277)
I like the fact that the Chargers and two other teams of the Trio have positive point differentials while the three 5-7 teams below have negative ones. To me, honestly, the Chargers are the best team of these three and the one I would fear the most sneaking into the playoffs purely because of how good Philip Rivers has been this season. They could've done some serious damage had either Donario Alexander or Malcolm Floyd not been lost for the season.
7.) Baltimore Ravens (6-6 = 249-235)
Before anyone tries to claim this is a return of the 2012 Ravens, a team that will sneak into the playoffs with no fanfare and go on a run (and oddly, they could get Indy in Round 1, with potential trips to Denver and New England after), they more resemble a worse version of the 2009 Ravens, a team that went 9-7 and smacked New England before losing handily to a better Colts team. The Ravens may be getting Dennis Pitta back soon, which could greatly increase their chances of doing some sort of damage in the playoffs, if they get there.
6.) Miami Dolphins (6-6 = 252-248)
The Dolphins don't have the tiebreaker with Baltimore, but they do have the easier schedule. It really, though, could come down to whether either team could beat the Patriots at home. They host New England in back-to-back weeks (Miami first). The Dolphins have a tough trip to Pittsburgh this week, while the Ravens have trips to both Detroit and Cincinnati. Again, the Dolphins have the edge in schedule, and as messy as the Incognito/Martin situation was, I'm rooting for the remaining Dolphins to get there and make sure Joe Philbin, who I think is a very good coach, desevedly doesn't lose his job.
The "Teams Everyone Will Want to Play in January" Duo
5.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4 = 285-274)
The Colts are almost exactly what they were a year ago, but in a far more variant way. What they were a year ago was a decent team that would play about the same each week, good enough to beat bad teams by a little and bad enough to lose to any good team. This year, they've been maddeningly inconsistent, good enough to beat the Broncos and Seahawks one more time than the rest of the NFL combined, and bad enough to get smacked by the Rams and Cardinals (I wonder how many Colts fans could have imagined splitting their games against the NFC West the way they did). The Colts without Reggie Wayne aren't a scary team, but it is commendable that they're going to make the playoffs again.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3 = 298-214)
The Chiefs were never as good as a 9-0 team (or 6-0, 7-0, 8-0 team), but they aren't as bad as they've been the last three weeks either. It is amazing that after getting 35 sacks in their first 7 games they've gotten just two the last five games, but that is still a good defense. Marcus Cooper has been good against anyone but Denver. Their offense is better than people think. They won't be an easy out in the playoffs, and I would give them a very good chance of beating Indianapolis in a potential 4-5 matchup.
The "If One of Us Don't Win the AFC, Just Call it January Madness" Trio
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-4 = 292-216)
The Bengals are underrated. They might be really underrated. They've lost four games, but two of those losses were in OT (admittedly, they were extremely lucky to get one of those to OT). The other losses were to Chicago with Cutler in Chicago and a bad loss to the Browns. They're point differential is better than New England. They have a tiebreaker over them. If the Patriots slip up once more, the Bengals and their easy closing schedule are right there to snatch away that #2 seed. I don't really trust Cincinnati to finish 4-0, but this team is really good, and I can't imagine that that will change for another 2-3 years.
2.) New England Patriots (9-3 = 322-261)
The Patriots offense is good. I'll admit it. They aren't as good as the offenses from 2010-2012, but they are as good as the 2009 offense when it was fully healthy (so not when they without Welker and did whatever that performance could be called against Baltimore - and yes, I do love gratuitously mentioning that game). The defense is concerning because bad run defenses could kill them in potential playoff games with Cincinnati or Kansas City, but the pass defense has remained strong enough. Oh, and Stephen Gostkowski has been about as good as any replacement of Adam Vinatieri could have been.
1.) Denver Broncos (10-2 = 464-317)
Down 21-7 after blowing a 24-0 lead the week before, on the road against a good defense, Peyton Manning put up his best performance of his Broncos career. He had 400 yards on 22 completions, with only one completion really aided by YAC (the screen to Moreno). His deep ball was as good as it has been for years. Denver isn't always cold in January. In fact, it is considerably warmer on average in Denver in January than Foxboro/Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Philadelphia/Cleveland/New York/Buffalo/Green Bay/Chicago and all those other 'cold' places that people assume Denver is one of. It isn't.
NFC
The "Isn't it Hilarious That We Were Playoff Teams Last Year" Trio
16.) Washington Redskins (3-9 = 269-362)
15.) Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1 = 289-366)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (3-9 = 261-340)
A year after the AFC repeated five playoff teams from 2011, the three worst teams in the NFC were playoff teams from the previous year. The Falcons lost three games all season last year. It took them 12 games to win three this year. There really is no precedent for what has happened to the Falcons. 13-3 teams rarely ever fall this much (13-3 seems to be a different level from 12-4, as those teams fall back a lot more often). As far as those other teams, well, if you were asked to predict which NFC playoff teams would fall back to the levels of a Top-10 pick, those were the best two picks. The Vikings and Redskins both had magical rides based on running offenses, which are more inconsistent year-to-year. An interesting race to watch out for is which talented team that had a bad season will be able to draft Jedaveon Clowney. The Falcons and Texans are in a good competition for that distinction.
The "Spoiler Alerted" Quatro
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9 = 217-285)
12.) Green Bay Packers (5-6-1 = 294-305)
11.) St. Louis Rams (5-7 = 279-278)
10.) New York Giants (5-7 = 237-297)
With their loss to Dallas, the Giants are basically out of the race. Because of this, they enter a situation with these other teams of being potential spoilers. The Buccaneers and Rams both have the solid defense and sputtering big-play offenses with backup QBs (though Glennon has been 10x better than Freeman). The Packers could be an ultra-spoiler if Aaron Rodgers does return this season. The Packers are still in it from the outside, but they'll have to go two games better than Detroit (who has an easy schedule) to win the division, as they're 2-2-1 in the division to Detroit's 4-1, making it impossible for them to win a tiebreaker against Detroit. Of course, I don't know why I brought this up since with a tie on their record, they'll never got to a tiebreaker. Wow, that was a waste of time.
The "Boring, but Inevitably Interesting Division Races, plus the Team No One Wants in the Playoffs but Won't Get There" Quatro
9.) Dallas Cowboys (7-5 = 329-303)
How good are the Cowboys really? They've won close games against average teams the last two weeks, and didn't really look too great against the Raiders on Thanksgiving. They have the division squarely in their sights even if they lose that Week 17 game to Philadelphia as long as they end up with the same record. The big key for Dallas is that Green Bay game in two weeks, which could be the return of Aaron Rodgers. In reality, I don't know what would be worse for Tony Romo's reputation: losing to the Eagles in Week 17 to blow the division, or losing to the Panthers or Saints in the Wild Card Round at home.
8.) Chicago Bears (6-6 = 323-332)
The Bears probably shouldn't have beaten the Ravens in OT, so that loss to Minnesota they probably should have won should be forgotten. I think McCown's performances have regressed to a point where it obvious that Cutler would have been better healthy. Jay Cutler is a good QB, and together with Jeffery and Marshall they can do some special things next season. The problem is they have to replace their aging defensive stars soon.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-5 = 300-281)
Last year everyone was questioning the 'gimmick' offense the Redskins were running as they started 3-6, and then they rolled off seven straight wins to win the division. This year, everyone was questioning the 'gimmick' Chip Kelly offense as they started 3-5 (including scoring just 3 points on offense in those last two losses), and now they've rolled off 4 straight. Nick Foles will throw an interception, and this could easily be a repeat of Damon Huard's surreally low pick year in 2006, but he's a good QB, that defense is playing so much better than it did early in the season. This week's game against Detroit should be another good test of the Eagles, this time a test for the Eagles revamped defense.
6.) Arizona Cardinals (7-5 = 275-247)
I'm pretty sure no team wants to see Arizona in the playoffs in the NFC. I would gather that the Lions/Seahawks/Cowboys/Eagles would rather see San Francisco than Arizona. That might be wrong, but the Cardinals defense is capable of having scary good performances. The Cardinals offense has played better in recent weeks as Bruce Arians finally realized that Andre Ellington is just a lot better than Rashard Mendenhall. Carson Palmer has cut his interceptions. The offense is better than it was early in the season. They probably won't make it, and I don't know if they'll have a great chance going forward as that division is not getting any easier.
5.) Detroit Lions (7-5 = 326-287)
The Lions are the biggest wild card in the NFC Playoffs. What do we know about them: They are supremely talented at a lot of high impact positions. They have the single most unstoppable player in the NFL. They have the capability to dominate the line of scrimmage. They commit terrible penalties and stupid mistakes that could sabotage them. That is the resume of a team that could easily lose in round 1 to San Francisco by 20, but could also beat them and then go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks because Calvin Johnson owns Richard Sherman for a night. Anything can happen.
The "Team That Gets Credit for Previous Years But Will Get Blowed Out" Uno
4.) San Francisco 49ers (8-4 = 297-197)
Are the 49ers good? They're getting undue credit for beating a mediocre Rams team by 10 at home. They're 2.5 point favorites against the Seahawks this week (which means Vegas thinks the Seahawks are only about a point better on a neutral field). People think all the problems will be solved with Michael Crabtree back. Is that possible? Sure, but I think the problems with the 49ers were more systemic than solely personnel-based. Then again, they're the defending NFC Champions and Colin Kaepernick is the Greatest QB of All Time as per Ron Jaworski.
The "If One of Us Don't Win the NFC, Just Call it January Madness" Trio
The Saints got embarrassed last night, which is a good does of medicine before they play a very similar type team on Sunday Night with their game against Carolina. The Panthers swept them last season, and I can't see that happening. You're never as good as you look at your best (their performance against Dallas) and you're never as bad as you look at your worst (last night against Seattle). One bad loss doesn't end their chances, but they may need some other savior to knock off the Seahawks for them.
2.) Carolina Panthers (9-3 = 285-157)
The Panthers were 1-3, and now are tied for the 2nd best record in the conference. Ultimately, the game that will kill them is their loss to Arizona compared to the Saints win against the Cardinals. Of course, the Panthers had to go to Arizona, while the Saints got them at home. The Panthers have a chance on Sunday, but even if they split and end up with the #5 seed, they'll be the best wild card team in years. Honestly, the last wild card team this good probably hasn't happened in the 32-team era. This is a special team right now.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (11-1 = 340-186)
The Seahawks are really good at home, and they won't have to play a meaningful game outside of home until the Super Bowl. That is a good thing. So, who can actually beat them in Seattle? For any team to do it, I think they have to score first, calm down that atmosphere immediately. Then, they have to dominate the Seahawks o-line, which teams have done on the road (Indianapolis, St. Louis, Arizona to a degree). Who can do this: Carolina is the obvious answer, and I think they only one that I would give better than a 30% chance of doing. The other team that has these traits is Detroit.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2 (W vs.TEN, W vs.SD, W @HOU, W @OAK)
2.) New England Patriots = 12-4 (W vs. CLE; L @MIA; W @BAL; W vs.BUF)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (W vs.IND; L @PIT, W vs.MIN, W vs.BAL)
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6 (L @CIN, W vs.HOU, L @KC, W vs.JAX)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5 (W @WAS, L @OAK, W vs.IND, L @SD)
6.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7 (W @PIT, W vs.NE, L @BUF, W vs.NYJ)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 14-2 (W @SF, L @NYG, W vs.ARZ, W vs.STL)
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4 (W vs.CAR, W @STL, L @CAR, W vs.TB)
3.) Detroit Lions = 10-6 (W @PHI, W vs.BAL, W vs.NYG, L @MIN)
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7 (L @CHI, W vs.GB, L @WAS, W vs.PHI)
5.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (L @NO, W vs.NYJ, W vs.NO, W @ATL)
6.) San Francisco 49ers = 10-6 (L vs.SEA, W @TB, W vs.ATL, L@ARZ)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Houston Texans (2-10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) (TNF-NFLN)
15.) Atlanta Falcons (3-9) @ Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Buffalo Bills (4-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Oakland Raiders (4-8) @ New York Jets (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Why Do These Teams Even Play These Games" Sunday, as these are the four games with no real playoff implications. The Packers are tangentially attached to the NFC North playoff race, and the Jets are technically in the AFC race, but let's be real, neither is happening. Let's just move on, because there are some good games this week.
12.) Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (3-9) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tennessee Titans (5-7) @ Denver Broncos (10-2) (4:05 - CBS)
9.) Cleveland Browns (4-8) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Can Avoid Being Upset" Suunday, as four teams who have serious playoff aspirations (and in Kansas City, New England and Denver, are basically already in the playoffs) are playing four bad teams. Which is the most likely upset? Kansas City losing to Washington, but that's more because I can't see at all how the other three pull it off on the road against better teams. I won't be surprised if the Browns at least make the Patriots sweat it out for a half.
8.) St. Louis Rams (5-7) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
7.) New York Giants (5-7) @ San Diego Chargers (5-7) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Fun Late Games that are Probably Inevitably Meaningless" Sunday, as these two games have teams kind of in the playoff race (Arizona just a game back, the Chargers a game back themselves). Both home teams have a lot more to play for, but the Rams and Giants are both able spoilers.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (7-5) @ Chicago Bears (6-6) (MNF - ESPN)
5.) Miami Dolphins (6-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Wants to Live Forever" Sunday, as all four teams try to make it another week in this playoff race. The Cowboys need to stay in front of the NFC East (which they'll know their position before the game). The Bears need to win to put any sort of pressure on Detroit. A Dolphins win here really helps them as it makes their game next week against New England slightly less important. The Steelers aren't the best matchup for the Dolphins, but this current Steelers team can't really do the one thing the Dolphins are really bad at stopping in rushing the passer.
4.) Detroit Lions (7-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Show Me Sunday" as the Eagles and Lions play a really nice early game for two teams who have both playoff races and playoff positioning to play for. These games are quite rare. The Lions will really challenge the Eagles defense which has been good against lesser competition recently. The Eagles offense will get a good challenge up front against a dominant o-line with 10 days rest.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (11-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Least Meaningful Game That I will Still Watch" Sunday, as the Seahawks can lose this game and still be one win away from clinching the division, and still be a game-and-a-half up in the race for the #1 seed. The 49ers don't need to win this game, as they can lock up a playoff spot by just having the same record as the Cardinals at the end of the season. The Seahawks offense will get a good test against a good pass rush on the road, something they've struggled with at times.
2.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Who Wants to Potential Steal New England's #2 Seed" Sunday, as both of these teams are in safe positions in their division (the Colts win the division with a win here), but will have massive seeding implications here. First, the winner has the inside track at the #3 seed at worst (and avoiding Kansas City for a worse version of Kansas City in Baltimore or Miami). The winner also goes to 9-4, and will really pressure New England. Both the Colts and Bengals have winnable games left, and both would win tiebreakers over the Patriots with similar record (h2h win for Cincinnati, strength of victory for Indianapolis).
1.) Carolina Panthers (9-3) @ New Orleans Saints (9-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Can the Saints in Their Home to do Carolina what they had Done Upon Them" Sunday, as the Saints get to flex their muscles at home after being embarrassed. I'm almost positive were going to hear a lot of the 'the Saints will be angry' talk coming into this game, but I think the Panthers have a decent shot. They tackle well and can limit YAC just like San Francisco did in their near loss in New Orleans. The primetime part scares me, but the Saints lost some of their primetime aura after that mess in Seattle. It should be great, with the return leg in Carolina just two weeks later.
