Year-to-Date: 109-80-3 (didn't pick Week 13/15)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8) (STL -4.5)
These are similar teams, but the Rams are better, have more talent, and are at home. Also, because of the awesomeness of the RGIII trade for them, the Rams don't eve have to worry about wins giving them a worse draft pick. I'm surprised this line is so low, really. The Rams have shown an ability to blow teams away, especially at home. Mike Glennon might get a rude awakening to life in the NFL in this one.
Buccaneers 13 Rams 23 (STL -4.5)
Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ New York Jets (6-8) (NYJ -2)
Who cares about this game, but how exactly are the Jets not favored by more. Their offense has shown some signs of life the last two weeks after Kerley came back, and their defense is every bit as good as the underrated Browns one. This line essentially means Vegas thinks the Browns are slightly better on a neutral field, which feels just wrong. The hidden story for the Jets over their final two games is a late two-game winning streak will pretty much ensure Rex Ryan keeps his job. I think the Jets finish Step #1 of that plan, and with the low line, they're a value favorite.
Browns 16 Jets 24 (NYJ -2)
Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) (TEN -4.5)
Despite their 4-2 record over the last six games (best in the AFC South, by the way), the Jaguars are getting no respect from Vegas. I get that they really don't have a home field advantage, but this is a staggering level of disrespect for a team that, with Chad Henne, has been as good as the Titans with Ryan Fitzpatrick. There's really nothing to break down here, as these teams are slightly even right now. I'll go with the Jaguars, an extremely valuable home team at this number.
Titans 20 Jaguars 27 (JAX +4.5)
Denver Broncos (11-3) @ Houston Texans (2-12) (DEN -10.5)
The Broncos should win this game by double digits. They are better, they match up well with Houston, as the strength of their O-Line will go up against JJ Watt. The Texans might get a boost with the return of Schaub, but I find that unlikely. The Texans have played mostly close games, but they all but gave up last week and there is really nothing for them to go for at this point, as it seems unlikely even with a shock two-game win streak that Wade Philips will get hired full time. Then again, I've gone against double-digit lines all season, and I'm not stopping now.
Broncos 31 Texans 23 (HOU +10.5)
Miami Dolphins (8-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-9) (MIA -3)
Not a lot of value here for Miami, who hasn't really shown the ability to win games comfortably on the road. The nadir of their season probably was their home loss to the Bills. However, since the Dolphins are playing a lot better and the Bills worse. Obviously, the Dolphins have far more to play for, and I think that could carry them. I would love if this line was closer to a pick, but life doesn't work that way. The Bills offense, with injury and Manuel hitting a rookie wall, has struggled in recent weeks, and the Dolphins defense is playing really well right now.
Dolphins 27 Bills 20 (MIA -3)
Dallas Cowboys (7-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-11) (DAL -3)
The Cowboys have to win this game. The Redskins are in disarray, have nothing to play for (though have nothing to play for on their pick since they're giving it away to St. Louis. The Cowboys, though, are in similar disarray, with infighting between coaches and Romo, and Jerrald. It is so fun that these two powerful, monied franchises just screw up constantly. Anyway, as for this game, my Theory of 'How Badly Do You Need It' points to Dallas, but they are just so up and down. I do think they win, but I won't be in the least bit surprised if they screw it up, again.
Cowboys 34 Redskins 24 (DAL -3)
Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) (CIN -8)
The Vikings, just like they were in 2010, are a competitive team without a good QB situation that can be a great spoiler. They were in a scarily similar spot that season, with a Week 16 game in Philadelphia against an Eagles team that had, at that point, the inside track at a bye. They beat the Eagles 26-14, really starting the beginning of the end of the Michael Vick era. The Andy Dalton era is just beginning, but this is a big game for Cincinnati. Now, with a win here and a loss to Baltimore next week, they're out of the playoffs if Miami wins out, but I can't see both of those things happening. The Bengals still have a shot at a #2 seed, and I think they win here, I just don't know if they can cover. Few teams have beaten the Vikings by a TD in a while. I like the Bengals to win, but not by that much.
Vikings 17 Bengals 24 (MIN +8)
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) (KC -7)
High line, but the Colts recent performance against similar teams indicates that this line might be too low. The Colts defense is not very good, but they've done a good job against RBs in the passing game, which should help a lot against a Chiefs offense that is driven by Jamaal Charles. The Colts themselves are catching the Chiefs as the KC defense is falling, so that helps them. Their O-Line has been better in recent weeks. I can't really see the Colts winning this game, but I think this line slightly undervalues them, and so I'll hesitantly take the Colts to cover.
Colts 23 Chiefs 27 (IND +7)
New Orleans Saints (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (CAR -3)
Oh, what a game. I'm so glad the Rams beat the Saints. Partly because it now gives Carolina the inside track at the #2 seed, which will make the NFC playoffs 10x better than had the Divisional Round been two teams getting blown out in Seattle and New England. The other reason is because this game is now damn meaningful, like some of the great Week 16 games of old. Statistically, the Saints road woes are still in a 'Small Sample Size' bucket, but let's be real; The woes are real. The Saints receivers don't run as well outdoors. The line doesn't block nearly as well (probably the biggest issue). The defense doesn't play as well. The Saints have lost road games to teams built like Carolina but worse (Jets, Rams), and I think they lose this one as well.
Saints 20 Panthers 26 (CAR -3)
Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ San Diego Chargers (7-7) (SD -10)
The Raiders are totally in their try-out stage. There are reports that the Raiders could look to sign Jon Gruden, and I hope it doesn't happen. I'll talk more about it in my Week 17 Power Rankings. The Raiders defense has fallen off a cliff, which is not a good thing when going up against the league's 2nd best offense (per DVOA). The Chargers haven't gotten this much respect from Vegas all year (winning comfortably in Denver will do that to you) and I don't really know if they should. The Chargers like to minimize games, reduce possessions, which leads to lower scoring games. On talent and desire, they should probably win this game by double digits, but I don't know if I can bet them that way.
Raiders 19 Chargers 27 (OAK +10)
New York Giants (5-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-7) (DET -9.5)
I have a theory about which teams fold late in seasons and which teams aspire to be good spoilers. The teams that fold late in seasons are the ones that were supposed to be good, but fell off. Their players expected to be playing meaningful games this late in the season, and can't handle playing meaningless ones. The teams that wear their spoiler label with pride are the ones that weren't supposed to be great anyway. The Giants, like the Falcons or Texans, are in that first group that folds, and they have. The Lions need this game far more. I also like the fact that the Lions are playing this simultaneously with the Packers, as had the Packers won early, I would question the Lions motivation. Instead, I'm going to do something rare, and pick a near double digit favorite to cover, as one last slap in the face of my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick.
Giants 16 Lions 28 (DET -9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-2) (SEA -10.5)
By know, I've made my stance on 10+ point favorites known, and I'm not stopping now, especially when Arizona is far too good to be a 10 point underdog to anyone. Since these teams last met in a game that was closer than the final score, the Cardinals have picked it up offensively, and the Seahawks have since essentially clinched everything. There is some degree of motivation for the Seahakws to finish off the division and the #1 seed today, but they have that same ability next week against a worse team also at home. The Cardinals have no real shot, but they're a team that isn't going to give up .
Cardinals 20 Seahawks 24 (ARZ +10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) @ Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) (GB -2)
This is the line with Flynn starting for Rodgers. It's not really surprising Green Bay is favored, but this brief playoff renaissance has been built off of two one-point wins against a bad team and an average one. The Steelers are an average one as well, but they have good matchups here, especially if there is weather involved which there is. I like the Steelers to win here, ruining a potentially awesome Week 17 game (Rodgers returns for a winner-take-all Packers @ Bears game - although I don't think Rodgers is playing again this year). This is too big of a QB mismatch the way Ben is playing for the Packers to pull it off to me.
Steelers 27 Packers 20 (PIT +2)
New England Patriots (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (BAL -2)
I don't have much time (writing this past 12:00 on Sunday), so I'll finish these last three quickly. The Patriots are not a great team right now, but they can beat one-dimenstional teams, which the Ravens are. The Ravens run offense is historically bad. Their pass offense relies on DPI as a real method of gaining yards. The Ravens defense is good, and will keep them in the game most likely, but I just can't see them pulling it off.
Patriots 20 Ravens 16 (NE +2)
Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) (PHI -3)
This game can be meaningless for each team. If the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless for the Eagles. If the Lions lose and Packers win, this game is meaningless for the Bears. That's the worst case scenario for NBC, as I think if both teams have nothing to play for (except a potential 3/4 tiebreaker), both play really vanilla. I'm breaking this down in the different scenarios:
If game is only meaningful for Bears: Bears 30 Eagles 20 (CHI +3)
If game is only meaningful for Eagles: Bears 20 Eagles 30 (PHI -3)
If game is meaningless for both: Bears 24 Eagles 21 (CHI +3)
If game is meaningful for both: Bears 31 Eagles 27 (CHI +3)
That last scenario is NBC's dream. It happens if the Cowboys, Lions and Packers all lose, as the winner of this game will clinch their division, and the loser is put into a do-or-die Week 17 game for the division. I think the Bears are slightly better overall, so I'm giving them the win in most scenarios.
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4) (SF -14)
This is the final game in Candlestick Park, and if I get time, I'll write something about that on Monday. The line is really high, but the 49ers do blow the doors of bad teams. I think Matt Ryan could have some success, but the emotions of primetime, and the last game in Candlestick Park the 49ers should roll in this game.
Falcons 17 49ers 34 (SF -14)
Enjoy the Games!!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8) (STL -4.5)
These are similar teams, but the Rams are better, have more talent, and are at home. Also, because of the awesomeness of the RGIII trade for them, the Rams don't eve have to worry about wins giving them a worse draft pick. I'm surprised this line is so low, really. The Rams have shown an ability to blow teams away, especially at home. Mike Glennon might get a rude awakening to life in the NFL in this one.
Buccaneers 13 Rams 23 (STL -4.5)
Cleveland Browns (4-10) @ New York Jets (6-8) (NYJ -2)
Who cares about this game, but how exactly are the Jets not favored by more. Their offense has shown some signs of life the last two weeks after Kerley came back, and their defense is every bit as good as the underrated Browns one. This line essentially means Vegas thinks the Browns are slightly better on a neutral field, which feels just wrong. The hidden story for the Jets over their final two games is a late two-game winning streak will pretty much ensure Rex Ryan keeps his job. I think the Jets finish Step #1 of that plan, and with the low line, they're a value favorite.
Browns 16 Jets 24 (NYJ -2)
Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) (TEN -4.5)
Despite their 4-2 record over the last six games (best in the AFC South, by the way), the Jaguars are getting no respect from Vegas. I get that they really don't have a home field advantage, but this is a staggering level of disrespect for a team that, with Chad Henne, has been as good as the Titans with Ryan Fitzpatrick. There's really nothing to break down here, as these teams are slightly even right now. I'll go with the Jaguars, an extremely valuable home team at this number.
Titans 20 Jaguars 27 (JAX +4.5)
Denver Broncos (11-3) @ Houston Texans (2-12) (DEN -10.5)
The Broncos should win this game by double digits. They are better, they match up well with Houston, as the strength of their O-Line will go up against JJ Watt. The Texans might get a boost with the return of Schaub, but I find that unlikely. The Texans have played mostly close games, but they all but gave up last week and there is really nothing for them to go for at this point, as it seems unlikely even with a shock two-game win streak that Wade Philips will get hired full time. Then again, I've gone against double-digit lines all season, and I'm not stopping now.
Broncos 31 Texans 23 (HOU +10.5)
Miami Dolphins (8-6) @ Buffalo Bills (5-9) (MIA -3)
Not a lot of value here for Miami, who hasn't really shown the ability to win games comfortably on the road. The nadir of their season probably was their home loss to the Bills. However, since the Dolphins are playing a lot better and the Bills worse. Obviously, the Dolphins have far more to play for, and I think that could carry them. I would love if this line was closer to a pick, but life doesn't work that way. The Bills offense, with injury and Manuel hitting a rookie wall, has struggled in recent weeks, and the Dolphins defense is playing really well right now.
Dolphins 27 Bills 20 (MIA -3)
Dallas Cowboys (7-7) @ Washington Redskins (3-11) (DAL -3)
The Cowboys have to win this game. The Redskins are in disarray, have nothing to play for (though have nothing to play for on their pick since they're giving it away to St. Louis. The Cowboys, though, are in similar disarray, with infighting between coaches and Romo, and Jerrald. It is so fun that these two powerful, monied franchises just screw up constantly. Anyway, as for this game, my Theory of 'How Badly Do You Need It' points to Dallas, but they are just so up and down. I do think they win, but I won't be in the least bit surprised if they screw it up, again.
Cowboys 34 Redskins 24 (DAL -3)
Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) (CIN -8)
The Vikings, just like they were in 2010, are a competitive team without a good QB situation that can be a great spoiler. They were in a scarily similar spot that season, with a Week 16 game in Philadelphia against an Eagles team that had, at that point, the inside track at a bye. They beat the Eagles 26-14, really starting the beginning of the end of the Michael Vick era. The Andy Dalton era is just beginning, but this is a big game for Cincinnati. Now, with a win here and a loss to Baltimore next week, they're out of the playoffs if Miami wins out, but I can't see both of those things happening. The Bengals still have a shot at a #2 seed, and I think they win here, I just don't know if they can cover. Few teams have beaten the Vikings by a TD in a while. I like the Bengals to win, but not by that much.
Vikings 17 Bengals 24 (MIN +8)
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) (KC -7)
High line, but the Colts recent performance against similar teams indicates that this line might be too low. The Colts defense is not very good, but they've done a good job against RBs in the passing game, which should help a lot against a Chiefs offense that is driven by Jamaal Charles. The Colts themselves are catching the Chiefs as the KC defense is falling, so that helps them. Their O-Line has been better in recent weeks. I can't really see the Colts winning this game, but I think this line slightly undervalues them, and so I'll hesitantly take the Colts to cover.
Colts 23 Chiefs 27 (IND +7)
New Orleans Saints (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (CAR -3)
Oh, what a game. I'm so glad the Rams beat the Saints. Partly because it now gives Carolina the inside track at the #2 seed, which will make the NFC playoffs 10x better than had the Divisional Round been two teams getting blown out in Seattle and New England. The other reason is because this game is now damn meaningful, like some of the great Week 16 games of old. Statistically, the Saints road woes are still in a 'Small Sample Size' bucket, but let's be real; The woes are real. The Saints receivers don't run as well outdoors. The line doesn't block nearly as well (probably the biggest issue). The defense doesn't play as well. The Saints have lost road games to teams built like Carolina but worse (Jets, Rams), and I think they lose this one as well.
Saints 20 Panthers 26 (CAR -3)
Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ San Diego Chargers (7-7) (SD -10)
The Raiders are totally in their try-out stage. There are reports that the Raiders could look to sign Jon Gruden, and I hope it doesn't happen. I'll talk more about it in my Week 17 Power Rankings. The Raiders defense has fallen off a cliff, which is not a good thing when going up against the league's 2nd best offense (per DVOA). The Chargers haven't gotten this much respect from Vegas all year (winning comfortably in Denver will do that to you) and I don't really know if they should. The Chargers like to minimize games, reduce possessions, which leads to lower scoring games. On talent and desire, they should probably win this game by double digits, but I don't know if I can bet them that way.
Raiders 19 Chargers 27 (OAK +10)
New York Giants (5-9) @ Detroit Lions (7-7) (DET -9.5)
I have a theory about which teams fold late in seasons and which teams aspire to be good spoilers. The teams that fold late in seasons are the ones that were supposed to be good, but fell off. Their players expected to be playing meaningful games this late in the season, and can't handle playing meaningless ones. The teams that wear their spoiler label with pride are the ones that weren't supposed to be great anyway. The Giants, like the Falcons or Texans, are in that first group that folds, and they have. The Lions need this game far more. I also like the fact that the Lions are playing this simultaneously with the Packers, as had the Packers won early, I would question the Lions motivation. Instead, I'm going to do something rare, and pick a near double digit favorite to cover, as one last slap in the face of my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick.
Giants 16 Lions 28 (DET -9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-2) (SEA -10.5)
By know, I've made my stance on 10+ point favorites known, and I'm not stopping now, especially when Arizona is far too good to be a 10 point underdog to anyone. Since these teams last met in a game that was closer than the final score, the Cardinals have picked it up offensively, and the Seahawks have since essentially clinched everything. There is some degree of motivation for the Seahakws to finish off the division and the #1 seed today, but they have that same ability next week against a worse team also at home. The Cardinals have no real shot, but they're a team that isn't going to give up .
Cardinals 20 Seahawks 24 (ARZ +10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) @ Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) (GB -2)
This is the line with Flynn starting for Rodgers. It's not really surprising Green Bay is favored, but this brief playoff renaissance has been built off of two one-point wins against a bad team and an average one. The Steelers are an average one as well, but they have good matchups here, especially if there is weather involved which there is. I like the Steelers to win here, ruining a potentially awesome Week 17 game (Rodgers returns for a winner-take-all Packers @ Bears game - although I don't think Rodgers is playing again this year). This is too big of a QB mismatch the way Ben is playing for the Packers to pull it off to me.
Steelers 27 Packers 20 (PIT +2)
New England Patriots (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (BAL -2)
I don't have much time (writing this past 12:00 on Sunday), so I'll finish these last three quickly. The Patriots are not a great team right now, but they can beat one-dimenstional teams, which the Ravens are. The Ravens run offense is historically bad. Their pass offense relies on DPI as a real method of gaining yards. The Ravens defense is good, and will keep them in the game most likely, but I just can't see them pulling it off.
Patriots 20 Ravens 16 (NE +2)
Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) (PHI -3)
This game can be meaningless for each team. If the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless for the Eagles. If the Lions lose and Packers win, this game is meaningless for the Bears. That's the worst case scenario for NBC, as I think if both teams have nothing to play for (except a potential 3/4 tiebreaker), both play really vanilla. I'm breaking this down in the different scenarios:
If game is only meaningful for Bears: Bears 30 Eagles 20 (CHI +3)
If game is only meaningful for Eagles: Bears 20 Eagles 30 (PHI -3)
If game is meaningless for both: Bears 24 Eagles 21 (CHI +3)
If game is meaningful for both: Bears 31 Eagles 27 (CHI +3)
That last scenario is NBC's dream. It happens if the Cowboys, Lions and Packers all lose, as the winner of this game will clinch their division, and the loser is put into a do-or-die Week 17 game for the division. I think the Bears are slightly better overall, so I'm giving them the win in most scenarios.
Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4) (SF -14)
This is the final game in Candlestick Park, and if I get time, I'll write something about that on Monday. The line is really high, but the 49ers do blow the doors of bad teams. I think Matt Ryan could have some success, but the emotions of primetime, and the last game in Candlestick Park the 49ers should roll in this game.
Falcons 17 49ers 34 (SF -14)
Enjoy the Games!!!
