Here we are. 256 games down, 11 to go. BTW, I was 9-7 in my Week 17 picks. That gives me the following record for the season:
Year-to-Date: 142-107-7 (+34,600) (56.8%)
Pretty good, huh? Especially since I got a lot of my preseason picks wrong (did get 7 of the 12 playoff teams right), meaning that I didn't have a great read on a lot of these teams. Anyway, before we get to the picks, just a quick ranking of the potential 8 different Divisional Weekend combinations.
AFC
4.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Indianapolis @ New England
3.) Baltimore @ Denver @ Houston @ New England
2.) Indianapolis @ Denver & Houston @ New England
1.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Baltimore @ New England
The last place one has the greatest chance for two blowout, while the #1 option has a blowout potentially in Cincinnati, but Baltimore generally plays New England tough. I feel like Baltimore or Indianapolis would be blown out by Denver, but the Indianapolis version has the Manning vs. The Colts angle.
NFC
4.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Washington @ San Francisco
3.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Seattle @ San Francisco
2.) Washington @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francisco
1.) Seattle @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francsico
This is easier as the definite matchups (#6 @ #1 and #3 @ #2) give us the worst matchup (Minnesota @ Atlanta) and the best (Green Bay @ San Francisc). I would rather see Seattle play in divisional weekend over Washington because I think Seattle is a more entertaining team. Seattle @ Atlanta would be a fascinating matchup, as that is the only potential divisional opponent that I think can reasonably be expected to beat Atlanta.
Anyway, let's get to the picks.
First up:
The Formula Picks
* the formula is Team X = OFF + DEF + (QB + COACH)/3 - 1 (IF HOME)
Bengals @ Texans
Bengals = 6 + 2 + (6 + 4) / 3 = 11.333
Texans = 4 + 3 + (4 + 5) / 3 - 1 = 9
Formula Winner = Texans
Vikings @ Packers
Vikings = 6 + 5 + (6 + 6) / 3 = 15
Packers = 1 + 4 + (1 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 5.
Formula Winner = Packers
Colts @ Ravens
Colts = 5 + 6 + (5 + 6) / 3 = 13.666
Ravens = 3 + 5 + (3 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 8.666
Formula Winner = Ravens
Seahawks @ Redskins
Seahawks = 3 + 1 + (3 + 5) / 3 = 6.666
Redskins = 5 + 6 + (4 + 3) / 3 - 1 = 12.333
Formula Winner = Seahawks
State of the Teams: For the 2nd straight year, the Bengals visit the Texans to start the playoffs. Of course, the difference this time is that Matt Schaub is starting, and not TJ Yates, but the Texans won 31-10 with TJ Yates last year. The Bengals are a better team this season (a more deserving 10-6 than last year's 9-7), while the Texans are better at QB and at JJ Watt, but worse everywhere else largely. There is a lot of love for the Bengals right now, but to me, a lot of that is due more to the Texans free-fall. Of course, no one remembers that the Texans entered the playoffs last year losing their last three games. The Bengals do enter winning 7 of 8 (and the lone loss was one a last-second field goal), allowing just 12.5 ppg in those eight games. Of course, in those games, the only offense they faced that is better than the Texans offense was the Giants. The game definitely lines up as the hot Bengals vs. the free-falling Texans, but the Texans are at home, have more experience, and a healthy QB.
Matchups: The Bengals and Texans both enter with good defenses headed by great defensive lineman. The Texans have JJ Watt, the best defensive player in the league in 2012, and the Bengals bring in Geno Atkins, the best defensive tackle in the league in 2012. Which d-line has the larger impact will probably decide this game. Neither team is really that great running the ball (though the Texans still have the pedigree and reputation of a great running team), so I doubt either will have much success on the ground. The pass rush will probably decide the game. Both teams get to the QB a lot, although the Texans' pass rush isn't that great outside of Watt, as the Bengals have 51 sacks and the Texans have 44. The difference is the o-line for the Texans is far, far better in pass protection. They allowed just 28 sacks, to 46 for the Bengals, so that matchup definitely goes the way of the Texans. Matt Schaub should have more time, and even though he has been average the last quarter of the season, Andy Dalton has been barely above average all season long. His game actually dropped over the last half of the season. Dalton is more careless with the ball, is less accurate, and although he has a great receiver, AJ Green also slowed down late in the year. Their defense has been good enough to carry them, but they might need the offense to step up here.
The Pick: The Texans won with TJ Yates, so it makes sense they would win this same matchup with Matt Schaub right? I would have to think the Texans will be reenergized by the crowd, by the playoffs. They got lazy late in the year, but that is a crime that other teams have been inflicted with. The Texans were even colder last year entering the playoffs, but stepped it up in the game. The Bengals are a better team than they were a year ago, and Marvin Lewis has to win a playoff game sooner or later (0-3), but I just don't like this matchup for the Bengals. No one can really stop Andre Johnson on that team, and Watt could be huge. I have a sinking feeling about trusting the Texans again, and I would rather see Baltimore go to New England than Houston, but we will get to the ramifications of these games on next week later.
State of the Teams: Division rematches in the playoffs are always tough to gauge. Rematches of Week 17 games that happen in the playoffs are also tough to gauge. Let's start with the Vikings. It is amazing that the Vikings were 8-6 entering Week 16, essentially needing two wins in a row to make the playoffs, and those games were against the (at the time) 12-2 Texans and then the 11-4 Packers. More ironically, both those teams were playing for something tangible (HFA and a 1st Round Bye), and the Vikings beat them both. Most importantly, Christian Ponder was good in both games. The Vikings enter the game pretty healthy, as Antoine Winfield is expected to play, and their run game is still the league's best. What Peterson has done in the 2nd half of the season is just incredible. The pass game still doesn't have a major target outside, but there was a nice Michael Jenkins sighting in Week 17. As for the Packers, they enter the playoffs off of a loss for the first time since 2007. The last time they were at home, they won 55-7, but overall they haven't been dominant at home this season. Rodgers will have his weapons there, but Nelson and Jennings aren't 100%. The big news is the defense, which had already improved anyway, is getting Charles Woodson back, making it about as healthy as it has been all year long.
Matchups: The Packers are undoubtedly the better team. They have a better QB, far better receivers, a better set of linebackers and a better secondary, but they don't matchup all that well with the Vikings. Clearly, they have issues stopping Peterson, who went for 212 and 199 in their two meetings this year. The 1st game was more egregious, but even in the 2nd they gave up big runs in advantageous down-and-distances. The Packers corners should be able to swallow up the receivers of the Vikings, but the Packers haven't found a good answer for Kyle Rudolph. Christian Ponder has gotten a lot of time in both games, and unless that changes, Christian Ponder might not be as bad as we think in this game. The other side is still problematic. Again, it is all about pressure and protection. Rodger was dropped 5 times in the Week 17 loss, and just twice in the Week 13 win. When the pass rush doesn't get to Rodgers and Rodgers is able to throw the ball, he has been great against Minnesota (27-35-286 in Week 13, 28-40-365 in Week 17). The run game for Green Bay has become pretty much irrelevant to discuss at this point. The Packers new lineman are terrible at pass blocking, but their run-blocking is decent. The weather could play a factor. Aaron Rodgers is not as good in cold weather (just look at last year's divisional game), and we are looking at a 19 degree kickoff with moderate wind, which helps the Vikings.
The Feeling: I think people often forget when the underdog hangs tough late in the season in a potential rematch in the playoffs. We saw this in 2007, when people just discounted the Giants chances even though they lost by three to New England in Week 17. We just saw the Packers lose to the Vikings. Yes, it was a close game, but the Packers were down 13-0 quickly, they never led, and they really did deserve to lose. Also, if Christian Ponder doesn't throw an absolutely terrible red-zone pick in the first game, the Vikings could have won that game as well. But therein lies the problem, it still is Christian Ponder. He can play well, but I have so little confidence in him it is hard to really get behind the Vikings to win this game. But the number in a divisional rematch seems high, especially when the Packers have shown no ability to stop Peterson, and limited ability to win games big.
State of the Teams: The Colts have gained a lot of supporters with their "meaningless" Week 17 win. Most people still think they are pretty fraudulent (a stance quite defensible since the Colts are the first team with a negative point differential to win at least 11 games), but that was a real win. Their defense is still good at holding teams to far fewer points than you would expect, but they have had some disastrous results on the road (59 to the Patriots, 35 to the Jets). Andrew Luck had a good game in Week 17, but later in the season he was starting to look more rattled by the constant pressure he has to face. The Ravens team is a team who's offense is still very hard to contain in Baltimore, and they have a ton of experience in playoff games. Very few teams have won playoff games four straight years, which the Ravens did from 2008-2011. The Ray Lewis retirement talk might inspire the Ravens to play a little harder so Lewis wins his final home game.
Matchups: The Colts don't really match up well with any playoff caliber team (even the Texans). Their defense struggles against the run, problems that have only gotten worse since they started suiting up guys like Lawrence Guy at DT. Their tackles are so green and soft that I could see Ray Rice destroying them. Their pass rush got better as the year went on, seemingly adjusting to the 3-4 defense (especially Freeney). The Ravens are average at protecting the passer, so I would give the advantage there to the Ravens. The Colts corners are mostly street-free agents, and haven't been able to stop other teams secondary weapons, which could make for a big game for Torrey Smith or Jacoby Jones. The Colts defense can't really stop any team, but I don't see them stopping the Ravens. On the other side, the Ravens defense played better late in the season, but oddly not that great at home for the most part. Their mix-and-match pass rush works (37 sacks), and the Colts o-line is really bad at pass protection, which could make for another game where Luck is running around all day. The Ravens secondary is not that great, especially at the corner position and Reggie Wayne could have a big game. The Colts probably won't be able to get any run game going. The Ravens also are really good at protecting the ball (16 giveaways), while the Colts are very bad and getting the ball (15 takeaways), so one of the big catalysts for upsets (turnovers) isn't all that likely. In every way, the Ravens are a better team.
My Feelings: I would love to continue to ride Chuckstrong here. The Colts have been on a magic ride all year long, starting with that memorable win over the Packers the week after Pagano's diagnosis. The Colts have had more outlandish wins than the one they are presented with right now. That said, I look to one game that gives me pause. The week after that emotional win over the Packers, the Colts went to New York to play the Jets, and were emotionally spent and lost 35-9. I could see the Colts being similarly spent and at a low this week after the emotional high of Pagano's return wears off. I also don't buy this idea that Pagano knows the Ravens defense, as that never worked for Rex Ryan in games against the Ravens. The Ravens are the team with the emotional lift right now knowing that this is almost certainly Ray Lewis's last home game, and they would want to send them out right. Add that up to their already clear advantages, and it is pretty easy.
State of the Teams: These teams enter the game in similar states. Both of them have rookie QBs who run some form of the read-option offense, and both of their rookie QBs have expanded their plays throughout the year and are now operating fully functional offenses. Both teams are entering the playoffs off long winning streaks, with the Seahawks entering on a 5-game win streak after a 6-5 start, and the Redskins a 7-game win streak after a 3-6 start. The Seahawks incredible 150-30 three-game run is over, and they looked a little flat against the Rams, but they have still been the NFC's best team over the last month. The Seahawks famously play great at home, and they did again (8-0), but they have struggled on the road, dropping some curious games like @DET and @MIA on the road. The franchise hasn't won a road playoff game since 1983. That's even more ancient than the history of the last Redskins' home playoff game (1999). This is a fascinating game, just the 2nd featuring two rookie QBs, and it should be a great capper to the weekend, or so everyone hopes.
Matchups: Offensively, these are strikingly similar teams. They both have QBs who run offenses where they have one or two reads and then are told to scramble, which they do well. They both have grading running backs that run well after contact. They both have a handful of receivers, none of whom is a true #1, but all talented and fit together well. The differences between these teams lie on the other side of the ball, because the Seahawks and Redskins defenses are, let's just say, not strikingly similar. Apart from being a lot better, the Seahawks defense rushes with just its front four and plays really physical bump-and-run coverage (and are getting Brandon Browner back). That type of defense should do well against Griffin, making his reads take longer and being better at keeping contain. On the other side, the Redskins defense has been admirable in their efforts to still be good after losing Brian Orakpo early in the year. To mitigate that loss, Haslett has switched to a really blitz heavy screen, which works well at times, but Russell Wilson has been great against hte blitz all year long. The matchups just aren't there for the Redskins. The one point in the Redskins favor is that the Seahawks were just average against the run this year, allowing 4.5 y/r over the course of the season, which isn't that good. The Redskins can limit the possessions of this game, which will be helped by their best-in-the-nfl ball security (just 14 giveaways).
My Feeling: I have picked against the Redskins in their last 5 games, and they won all five. They have continued to surprise me, and while I think their offense is more containable now than what it was at the beginning of their streak, the running game continues to play really well. The crowd should be excellent. I have a hard time just discounting the Seahawks performances on the road. Their one big road win this year was in Buffalo, but that game was really in Toronto. To me, the road factor and the crowd factor makes a game that isn't that close by the matchups quite a bit closer. I hate doing this for the playoffs, but I am terrified of a field goal game, so buying half the point it is.
Enjoy the Games!!
Year-to-Date: 142-107-7 (+34,600) (56.8%)
Pretty good, huh? Especially since I got a lot of my preseason picks wrong (did get 7 of the 12 playoff teams right), meaning that I didn't have a great read on a lot of these teams. Anyway, before we get to the picks, just a quick ranking of the potential 8 different Divisional Weekend combinations.
AFC
4.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Indianapolis @ New England
3.) Baltimore @ Denver @ Houston @ New England
2.) Indianapolis @ Denver & Houston @ New England
1.) Cincinnati @ Denver & Baltimore @ New England
The last place one has the greatest chance for two blowout, while the #1 option has a blowout potentially in Cincinnati, but Baltimore generally plays New England tough. I feel like Baltimore or Indianapolis would be blown out by Denver, but the Indianapolis version has the Manning vs. The Colts angle.
NFC
4.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Washington @ San Francisco
3.) Minnesota @ Atlanta & Seattle @ San Francisco
2.) Washington @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francisco
1.) Seattle @ Atlanta & Green Bay @ San Francsico
This is easier as the definite matchups (#6 @ #1 and #3 @ #2) give us the worst matchup (Minnesota @ Atlanta) and the best (Green Bay @ San Francisc). I would rather see Seattle play in divisional weekend over Washington because I think Seattle is a more entertaining team. Seattle @ Atlanta would be a fascinating matchup, as that is the only potential divisional opponent that I think can reasonably be expected to beat Atlanta.
Anyway, let's get to the picks.
First up:
The Formula Picks
* the formula is Team X = OFF + DEF + (QB + COACH)/3 - 1 (IF HOME)
Bengals @ Texans
Bengals = 6 + 2 + (6 + 4) / 3 = 11.333
Texans = 4 + 3 + (4 + 5) / 3 - 1 = 9
Formula Winner = Texans
Vikings @ Packers
Vikings = 6 + 5 + (6 + 6) / 3 = 15
Packers = 1 + 4 + (1 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 5.
Formula Winner = Packers
Colts @ Ravens
Colts = 5 + 6 + (5 + 6) / 3 = 13.666
Ravens = 3 + 5 + (3 + 2) / 3 - 1 = 8.666
Formula Winner = Ravens
Seahawks @ Redskins
Seahawks = 3 + 1 + (3 + 5) / 3 = 6.666
Redskins = 5 + 6 + (4 + 3) / 3 - 1 = 12.333
Formula Winner = Seahawks
(A6) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ (A3) Houston Texans (12-4) (HOU -4.5)
State of the Teams: For the 2nd straight year, the Bengals visit the Texans to start the playoffs. Of course, the difference this time is that Matt Schaub is starting, and not TJ Yates, but the Texans won 31-10 with TJ Yates last year. The Bengals are a better team this season (a more deserving 10-6 than last year's 9-7), while the Texans are better at QB and at JJ Watt, but worse everywhere else largely. There is a lot of love for the Bengals right now, but to me, a lot of that is due more to the Texans free-fall. Of course, no one remembers that the Texans entered the playoffs last year losing their last three games. The Bengals do enter winning 7 of 8 (and the lone loss was one a last-second field goal), allowing just 12.5 ppg in those eight games. Of course, in those games, the only offense they faced that is better than the Texans offense was the Giants. The game definitely lines up as the hot Bengals vs. the free-falling Texans, but the Texans are at home, have more experience, and a healthy QB.
Matchups: The Bengals and Texans both enter with good defenses headed by great defensive lineman. The Texans have JJ Watt, the best defensive player in the league in 2012, and the Bengals bring in Geno Atkins, the best defensive tackle in the league in 2012. Which d-line has the larger impact will probably decide this game. Neither team is really that great running the ball (though the Texans still have the pedigree and reputation of a great running team), so I doubt either will have much success on the ground. The pass rush will probably decide the game. Both teams get to the QB a lot, although the Texans' pass rush isn't that great outside of Watt, as the Bengals have 51 sacks and the Texans have 44. The difference is the o-line for the Texans is far, far better in pass protection. They allowed just 28 sacks, to 46 for the Bengals, so that matchup definitely goes the way of the Texans. Matt Schaub should have more time, and even though he has been average the last quarter of the season, Andy Dalton has been barely above average all season long. His game actually dropped over the last half of the season. Dalton is more careless with the ball, is less accurate, and although he has a great receiver, AJ Green also slowed down late in the year. Their defense has been good enough to carry them, but they might need the offense to step up here.
The Pick: The Texans won with TJ Yates, so it makes sense they would win this same matchup with Matt Schaub right? I would have to think the Texans will be reenergized by the crowd, by the playoffs. They got lazy late in the year, but that is a crime that other teams have been inflicted with. The Texans were even colder last year entering the playoffs, but stepped it up in the game. The Bengals are a better team than they were a year ago, and Marvin Lewis has to win a playoff game sooner or later (0-3), but I just don't like this matchup for the Bengals. No one can really stop Andre Johnson on that team, and Watt could be huge. I have a sinking feeling about trusting the Texans again, and I would rather see Baltimore go to New England than Houston, but we will get to the ramifications of these games on next week later.
Bengals 16 Texans 23 (HOU -4.5)
(N6) Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ (N3) Green Bay Packers (11-5) (GB -7.5)
State of the Teams: Division rematches in the playoffs are always tough to gauge. Rematches of Week 17 games that happen in the playoffs are also tough to gauge. Let's start with the Vikings. It is amazing that the Vikings were 8-6 entering Week 16, essentially needing two wins in a row to make the playoffs, and those games were against the (at the time) 12-2 Texans and then the 11-4 Packers. More ironically, both those teams were playing for something tangible (HFA and a 1st Round Bye), and the Vikings beat them both. Most importantly, Christian Ponder was good in both games. The Vikings enter the game pretty healthy, as Antoine Winfield is expected to play, and their run game is still the league's best. What Peterson has done in the 2nd half of the season is just incredible. The pass game still doesn't have a major target outside, but there was a nice Michael Jenkins sighting in Week 17. As for the Packers, they enter the playoffs off of a loss for the first time since 2007. The last time they were at home, they won 55-7, but overall they haven't been dominant at home this season. Rodgers will have his weapons there, but Nelson and Jennings aren't 100%. The big news is the defense, which had already improved anyway, is getting Charles Woodson back, making it about as healthy as it has been all year long.
Matchups: The Packers are undoubtedly the better team. They have a better QB, far better receivers, a better set of linebackers and a better secondary, but they don't matchup all that well with the Vikings. Clearly, they have issues stopping Peterson, who went for 212 and 199 in their two meetings this year. The 1st game was more egregious, but even in the 2nd they gave up big runs in advantageous down-and-distances. The Packers corners should be able to swallow up the receivers of the Vikings, but the Packers haven't found a good answer for Kyle Rudolph. Christian Ponder has gotten a lot of time in both games, and unless that changes, Christian Ponder might not be as bad as we think in this game. The other side is still problematic. Again, it is all about pressure and protection. Rodger was dropped 5 times in the Week 17 loss, and just twice in the Week 13 win. When the pass rush doesn't get to Rodgers and Rodgers is able to throw the ball, he has been great against Minnesota (27-35-286 in Week 13, 28-40-365 in Week 17). The run game for Green Bay has become pretty much irrelevant to discuss at this point. The Packers new lineman are terrible at pass blocking, but their run-blocking is decent. The weather could play a factor. Aaron Rodgers is not as good in cold weather (just look at last year's divisional game), and we are looking at a 19 degree kickoff with moderate wind, which helps the Vikings.
The Feeling: I think people often forget when the underdog hangs tough late in the season in a potential rematch in the playoffs. We saw this in 2007, when people just discounted the Giants chances even though they lost by three to New England in Week 17. We just saw the Packers lose to the Vikings. Yes, it was a close game, but the Packers were down 13-0 quickly, they never led, and they really did deserve to lose. Also, if Christian Ponder doesn't throw an absolutely terrible red-zone pick in the first game, the Vikings could have won that game as well. But therein lies the problem, it still is Christian Ponder. He can play well, but I have so little confidence in him it is hard to really get behind the Vikings to win this game. But the number in a divisional rematch seems high, especially when the Packers have shown no ability to stop Peterson, and limited ability to win games big.
Vikings 21 Packers 27 (MIN +7.5)
(A5) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ (A4) Baltimore Ravens (10-6) (BAL -7)
State of the Teams: The Colts have gained a lot of supporters with their "meaningless" Week 17 win. Most people still think they are pretty fraudulent (a stance quite defensible since the Colts are the first team with a negative point differential to win at least 11 games), but that was a real win. Their defense is still good at holding teams to far fewer points than you would expect, but they have had some disastrous results on the road (59 to the Patriots, 35 to the Jets). Andrew Luck had a good game in Week 17, but later in the season he was starting to look more rattled by the constant pressure he has to face. The Ravens team is a team who's offense is still very hard to contain in Baltimore, and they have a ton of experience in playoff games. Very few teams have won playoff games four straight years, which the Ravens did from 2008-2011. The Ray Lewis retirement talk might inspire the Ravens to play a little harder so Lewis wins his final home game.
Matchups: The Colts don't really match up well with any playoff caliber team (even the Texans). Their defense struggles against the run, problems that have only gotten worse since they started suiting up guys like Lawrence Guy at DT. Their tackles are so green and soft that I could see Ray Rice destroying them. Their pass rush got better as the year went on, seemingly adjusting to the 3-4 defense (especially Freeney). The Ravens are average at protecting the passer, so I would give the advantage there to the Ravens. The Colts corners are mostly street-free agents, and haven't been able to stop other teams secondary weapons, which could make for a big game for Torrey Smith or Jacoby Jones. The Colts defense can't really stop any team, but I don't see them stopping the Ravens. On the other side, the Ravens defense played better late in the season, but oddly not that great at home for the most part. Their mix-and-match pass rush works (37 sacks), and the Colts o-line is really bad at pass protection, which could make for another game where Luck is running around all day. The Ravens secondary is not that great, especially at the corner position and Reggie Wayne could have a big game. The Colts probably won't be able to get any run game going. The Ravens also are really good at protecting the ball (16 giveaways), while the Colts are very bad and getting the ball (15 takeaways), so one of the big catalysts for upsets (turnovers) isn't all that likely. In every way, the Ravens are a better team.
My Feelings: I would love to continue to ride Chuckstrong here. The Colts have been on a magic ride all year long, starting with that memorable win over the Packers the week after Pagano's diagnosis. The Colts have had more outlandish wins than the one they are presented with right now. That said, I look to one game that gives me pause. The week after that emotional win over the Packers, the Colts went to New York to play the Jets, and were emotionally spent and lost 35-9. I could see the Colts being similarly spent and at a low this week after the emotional high of Pagano's return wears off. I also don't buy this idea that Pagano knows the Ravens defense, as that never worked for Rex Ryan in games against the Ravens. The Ravens are the team with the emotional lift right now knowing that this is almost certainly Ray Lewis's last home game, and they would want to send them out right. Add that up to their already clear advantages, and it is pretty easy.
Colts 17 Ravens 30 (BAL -7)
(N5) Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ (N4) Washington Redskins (10-6) (SEA -3)
State of the Teams: These teams enter the game in similar states. Both of them have rookie QBs who run some form of the read-option offense, and both of their rookie QBs have expanded their plays throughout the year and are now operating fully functional offenses. Both teams are entering the playoffs off long winning streaks, with the Seahawks entering on a 5-game win streak after a 6-5 start, and the Redskins a 7-game win streak after a 3-6 start. The Seahawks incredible 150-30 three-game run is over, and they looked a little flat against the Rams, but they have still been the NFC's best team over the last month. The Seahawks famously play great at home, and they did again (8-0), but they have struggled on the road, dropping some curious games like @DET and @MIA on the road. The franchise hasn't won a road playoff game since 1983. That's even more ancient than the history of the last Redskins' home playoff game (1999). This is a fascinating game, just the 2nd featuring two rookie QBs, and it should be a great capper to the weekend, or so everyone hopes.
Matchups: Offensively, these are strikingly similar teams. They both have QBs who run offenses where they have one or two reads and then are told to scramble, which they do well. They both have grading running backs that run well after contact. They both have a handful of receivers, none of whom is a true #1, but all talented and fit together well. The differences between these teams lie on the other side of the ball, because the Seahawks and Redskins defenses are, let's just say, not strikingly similar. Apart from being a lot better, the Seahawks defense rushes with just its front four and plays really physical bump-and-run coverage (and are getting Brandon Browner back). That type of defense should do well against Griffin, making his reads take longer and being better at keeping contain. On the other side, the Redskins defense has been admirable in their efforts to still be good after losing Brian Orakpo early in the year. To mitigate that loss, Haslett has switched to a really blitz heavy screen, which works well at times, but Russell Wilson has been great against hte blitz all year long. The matchups just aren't there for the Redskins. The one point in the Redskins favor is that the Seahawks were just average against the run this year, allowing 4.5 y/r over the course of the season, which isn't that good. The Redskins can limit the possessions of this game, which will be helped by their best-in-the-nfl ball security (just 14 giveaways).
My Feeling: I have picked against the Redskins in their last 5 games, and they won all five. They have continued to surprise me, and while I think their offense is more containable now than what it was at the beginning of their streak, the running game continues to play really well. The crowd should be excellent. I have a hard time just discounting the Seahawks performances on the road. Their one big road win this year was in Buffalo, but that game was really in Toronto. To me, the road factor and the crowd factor makes a game that isn't that close by the matchups quite a bit closer. I hate doing this for the playoffs, but I am terrified of a field goal game, so buying half the point it is.
Seahawks 23 Redskins 17 (SEA bought to -2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
