The best weekend of the season is here. Divisional weekend, my favorite weekend in sports. Four games, all of them with good, deserving teams, great storylines. Just a plethora of great football. The playoff pretenders are gone. No Joe Webb's in this round! No sir. Let's get to the games.
(A4) Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ (A1) Denver Broncos (13-3) (DEN -9.5)
State of the Teams: The Broncos won their last eleven games. Entering the playoffs with such a long win streak hasn't always been a good thing. The last eight teams to enter the playoffs with the longest winning streak didn't win the playoffs. The last team to do so was the 2003 Patriots. That said, the Broncos were dominant in those eleven games. They haven't even trailed in the 4th quarter of their last eight games. Peyton Manning became a machine this season, with two great receivers at his disposal, and his work to the TEs has gotten better as well. The defense is a top-5 group. Of course, there is another team in this game. The Ravens have gone from the bane of everyone's existence (during their 9-2 start) to some sort of media darling now that we are in the Ray Lewis retirement tour. They enter the game as healthy as they will be this season. Of course, these two teams met four weeks ago in Baltimore, and it was not pretty. That game marked the most injured moment for the Ravens, but even then, them being down 31-3 on the way to a 34-17 loss was just jarring. They played decent against the Colts, but had trouble blocking at times, which could be critical in this game.
Matchups: The Ravens offense showed some life last weekend, running for nearly 200 yards with a really good game by Bernard Pierce. Joe Flacco started slow and was undone by pressure early, but found what he did best (throw deep) against a porous secondary. Three bombs to Anquan Boldin later and the team was rolling. The Broncos allow fewer deep passes than all but two teams, and their pass rush is substantially better than the Colts' rush that got to Flacco. Their run defense had some really bad games (Houston, New England), but is overall a stout unit. The Ravens do struggle to contain TEs, but if a big day by Dennis Pitta is matched by slow days from Boldin and Smith, I think the Broncos will take it. The Broncos offense has been consistently very good to great all season long. Peyton Manning had 13 games with a passer rating over 90 (3rd all time). Demarryius Thomas had a bad game the first time around, with various miscommunications with Manning, but Decker was a monster against Cary Williams the first time. The TEs are healthier now and can abuse Ray Lewis in coverage. The biggest matchup may be history though. Peyton Manning has won his last nine starts against the Ravens, with a passer rating above 100 in those games. With Indianapolis, he beat the Ravens in both the 2006 and 2009 playoffs. The Colts matchups were primarily Manning knowing how to beat that defense, and it showed that he still had that edge in the first meeting.
The Pick: The line is high, no doubt about it. The Broncos were actually good covering big lines (3-1 ATS with lines this high, their only non-cover was due to a missed field goal). I am pretty confident the Broncos will win this game. They are the better team. They are at home. They have matchup advantages on both sides. I don't think it will be as one-sided as the first game because the Ravens are healthier. There are two things that give me pause. The First is the Ray Lewis retirement story being eerily similar to the Jerome Bettis retirement story in 2005 (those Colts also beat down those Steelers in the regular season). Of course, those Steelers were better than these Ravens. The other is the weather. The forecast is for temperatures around 20 degerees, which could impact Manning's passing game. Of course, it probably impacts the Ravens as well. In the end, the Broncos are just better, and I think Manning is just on a mission right now, and it starts the same way the 2006 and 2009 playoffs started.
Ravens 13 Broncos 24 (DEN -9.5)
(N3) Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ (N2) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) (SF -3)
State of the Teams: Jim Harbaugh's decision to switch to Colin Kaepernick gets it greatest test in this match. Alex Smith won this game, and won it twice. He won this game in the literal sense in that he beat the Packers in Week 1 with a coolly efficient 20-26 performance. He also one this game in the larger sense by leading (two) 4th quarter comeback against the Saints last year in the divisional round. Now that 49ers team had a better defenses, but they still needed the offense to score a TD twice in the 4th quarter, and Alex Smith did just that. This game is the big test for him. Justin Smith looks to play, but it remains to be seen how impactful he is. The rest of the team seems to be healthy, but they may really miss Mario Manningham in this game. The Packers come in healthy and ready, but their o-line is still a mess, and Jordy Nelson looked nothing like Jordy Nelson against the Vikings. They seem to have found some sort of run game with DuJuan Harris, but he seems to be getting overrated like James Starks was, although unlike Harris, Starks actually had a really good game in the Wild Card round. In the end, the Packers run through Rodgers and that defense, and the defense is playing healthy and well, but this week they won't have Joe Webb across the field.
Matchups : There is no point in reading too much from the first game in Week 1 to see how the Packers defense matches up with the 49ers offense. The 49ers offense is still extremely diverse with multiple formations and non-premium position players making big impacts (like Delanie Walker, or Kendall Hunter before he was IRed). The Packers were totally inept against the 49ers running game in the first meeting. The run game for the 49ers is still very good, but now different with Kaepernick back there. The Packers didn't really stop the read-option stuff the Packers were doing in the first game as much as make in useless and force Webb to pass. I doubt they get the kind of lead in this game where that becomes an issue. The Packers secondary has played well, but has struggled to stop interior receivers, so we might see a nice game from Vernon Davis. The other side is more interesting. The 49ers defense in Week 1 dominated the Packers offense. They swallowed up the run game, and neutered the pass offense, making Rodgers check down all the time. They got decent pressure at Rodgers, but most of their success was in coverage. They'll need similar work from guys like Dashon Goldson, Tarrelle Brown and Chris Culliver, along with their mainstays. Justin Smith will be huge. Even if he isn't 100%, his presence allows for the 49ers T-E stunts to work. If he is close to 100%, then that will be a huge edge for the 49ers. The 49ers also have to luxury of being one of the only teams to be able to stick in base coverage against shotgun, which adds another edge in pass rushing. The best way to beat the Packers (as the Seahawks, Colts and Giants showed this year) is to just get to Rodgers, and Rodgers penchant of holding onto the ball coupled with their leaky o-line makes that really possible.
The Pick: I remember a year ago when the 49ers hosted the Saints and picking with my heart and my head and picking the 49ers. This matchup is a little different. The 49ers aren't quite as good defensively as they were a year ago. Then again, even with Rodgers' brilliance, this Packers offense isn't as good as the 2011 Saints offense. I still don't really trust Colin Kaepernick, and I think once over the next three weeks he will play badly in a 49ers loss, but I don't think it will be this week. The Week 1 matchup may not matter too much mentally, but back in Week 1 the Packers offense was healthier than they are now, and couldn't do much. I don't think too much has changed. They didn't leave points on the field, they didn't make mistakes, they were just outmatched. I think something similar happens here.
Packers 23 49ers 27 (SF bought to -2.5)
(N5) Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ (N1) Atlanta Falcons (13-3) (ATL -2.5)
Matchups: OK, in all seriousness this is a pretty fascinating game. The Falcons do have a bunch of pressure, but I feel like they've almost become underrated. The way people talk about them, you would think they won all their games by one point. Anyway, as far as the matchups, they both have some interesting areas. The Seahawks cornerbacks are the strength of their team, and they get the strength of the Falcons. TEs can beat the Seahawks, so look for Tony Gonzalez to have a heavy-target game. The Seahawks should take away the Falcons run-game, which is marginal against average defenses. The issue I see is the Seahawks generally rush four, which Matt Ryan has a lot of success against. The Seahawks should try to blitz more, as Ryan is susceptible to blitzes more than most QBs. The Seahawks offense needs their run game, but luckily for them, their run game is on fire right now, and the Falcons defense isn't great against the run. The problem though is that passing game, which the Seahawks will probably need at one point. The Falcons defense matches up nicely. They have great safeties that can limit big plays. They love exotic DB blitzes, which the Seahawks really struggle with. Finally, there is the disrespect and home factor. Three times this season the Falcons had a major home game. They hosted the Broncos on MNF, the Saints on TNF, and the Giants in Week 15 when the Giants were fighting for the playoffs. They won all those games, and limited Manning, Brees and Manning to 1 TD and 10 INTs (that is not a misprint). The defense has stepped up in big games.
The Pick: I liken this game to the Vikings hosting the Cowboys back in 2009. The Vikings had a slow end to the season and hosted a red-hot Cowboys team whose defense gave up just 14 points TOTAL over the previous three games. Everyone loved the Cowboys. The Vikings were a similarly three point favorite. You couldn't find anyone to pick the Vikings. The Vikings won that game 34-3. I don't think this gets close to that score, but I can easily the Falcons winning this game. They are, at home, a very good team. The Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road. Finally, the 1 PM factor is big. The Seahawks have to play their 2nd straight EST game, and this one at 1 PM. Historically, that spells doom for teams in the playoffs, and I think it does here as well.
Seahawks 20 Falcons 23 (ATL -2.5)
(A3) Houston Texans (13-4) @ (A2) New England Patriots (12-4) (NE -9.5)
Matchups: There was a reason that the Patriots won that game 42-14, and that was because everything that could go wrong went wrong. The Texans actually had three straight decent drives in the 1st half of that game, but ended up with no points becuase of two failed 4th down conversions on New England's side of the field (one was dropped), and a pick in the red zone. The Texans also forced two fumbles in the red zone, but recovered none of them. These aren't random things, because the Patriots do this to a lot of teams, but the Texans are far better than what they showed last time. The Texans don't matchup all that well with the Patriots, but there are some areas to exploit. Their pass rush should improve with Brooks Reed back and their pass rush got to Brady last time. Brady hit some deep throws which he doesn't do all that often. The bigger issue is the other side. If they can keep time of possession and do the things the Giants did in 2007 and 2011 on offense, they have a chance. Their run game can work, and is playing better now than they were the first time. The Texans get their matchup nightmare in Garrett Graham for this game. There were plays to be made the first time, but the Texans looked overwhelmed. I just don't see them looking as overwhelmed. Of course, the Patriots can stop Houston's offense. They can get pressure from Schaub's right, and Wilfork and Co. did a great job stuffing the run, which they could do again.
The Pick: With the matchups section I almost talked myself out of my pick, but I think the Texans keep this close. This is a high line. There is a shocking stat that there have been 22 playoff games where one team lost to the other in the regular season by 28 or more. Those 22 games have gone 11-11. There are a couple reasons why I think this blowout has a chance of getting reversed and Baltimore's won't. One is that I don't like the Patriots and love Manning, so I am biased. The other is the Texans are just a better team than Baltimore. That blowout was a further departure from their normal level of play. Let's not forget these teams had the same record. The Patriots recent home playoff history is shaky outside of one blowout of an overmatched Denver team. Call it a hunch, but I like the Texans to cover this number.
Texans 24 Patriots 30 (HOU +9.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
