6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-6 = 379-348)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 379 ptf (14th), 348 pta (14th), 5,385 ydf (20th), 5,600 yda (16th)
= Outsiders: 2.0% team (14th), 0.3% off (15th), 3.1% def (21st), 4.7% st (5th)
= Burke's: 0.45 team (23rd), 25th off, 13th def
Offense: I like that in 2012, we have mostly weak wild-cards. It is like being back in the old NFL. Anyway, returning to the present, the Vikings aren't exactly a great team in any way, but they are good at most things. The one place they are obviously phenomenal at is running the ball. Now this is no new information here. Adrian Peterson ran for over six yards per carry over 348 carries, which is just stupid good. Peterson started out a little slow (understandable since he was coming off of ACL surgery), but starting with the 7th game of the year (vs Arizona), and Peterson ran for 153 yards on 25 carries (6.35 y/r). Since then, he had just two games with a yards-per-rush less than 5 (and one of them was 4.95). He is just incredible. Of course, this is still a passing league, and Christian Ponder is not that good, and his receivers are about as bad. With Percy Harvin gone, they don't have their big matchup advantage at receiver, and you get guys like Michael Jenkins and Jarius Wright. The one good part about the passing game is it is low-risk and doesn't turn over the ball too much. Overall, in the playoffs you need to throw at some point, and I just don't think the Vikings can. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Vikings defense quietly was strong for much of the season. It is still built with their defensive front. Jared Allen is still a dynamic pass rusher with 12 sacks this season, but they have some depth, as Brian Robinson took a step up, as did Eversen Griffin (both with 8+ sacks). The tackles aren't the same, but still good. The back seven is not great, however. Chad Greenway is still a great player, but he's getting a bit slower, and Jasper Brinkley and Erin Henderson are both a little green. The secondary lost Antoine Winfield last week, and it is manned by a lot of young players like Harrison Smith and AJ Jefferson. The defense has to be run through that front and especially those defensive ends. If you look at the Vikings, they had 33 sacks in the 10 wins against just 11 in their six losses. If the pass rush can get home, they can be a good defense, but if it doesn't the Vikings don't have enough behind that front to really contain anyone. Rank: 5th
QB: Just listing the fact that the Vikings' QB is one Christian Ponder should be enough to merit why I have him ranked 6th out of the playoff QBs. So, I'll talk quickly about what Ponder does well. Ponder is low risk, as he threw few interceptions for what is perceived to be such a bad QB. His completion percentage is decent and he can run. OK, I'm done trying here. Christian Ponder is not very good, but when he does play well, the Vikings suddenly become a really tough team to beat. Rank: 6th
Coach: The NFC Playoff coaches are really deep this year, and if you count appearances in past jobs, Frazier is the only playoff 1st-timer in the field. I like Leslie Frazier, and I think he schemes and prepares his defense really well. He always can get d-lines to play well and have a deep rotation. I'm not too well versed on his clock management, but just the fact that he hasn't done this before is enough for me to be a little skeptical about Frazier. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: The Vikings, despite being a run-first team with a short, limited passing game, does seem to play much better in a dome, as they are 0-5 in outdoor games. They were 7-1 at home, so if you do a little math, you can see that they were 3-1 in indoor road games (wins @DET, @STL, @HOU with a loss @IND).
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Atlanta, though they do match up well with Atlanta's defense because Atlanta does struggle at times against the run, but the Falcons offense should shred this Vikings defense. The Falcons tackles are good and could limit the Vikings pass rush, and throw all over that secondary.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: San Francisco, as they have done it already. That was a strange game where Peterson did close to nothing, but Ponder played really well and they dominated time of possession and beat the 49ers at their own game.
5.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5 = 412-245)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 412 ptf (9th), 245 pta (1st), 5,610 ydf (17th), 4,899 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: 38.3% team (1st), 18.5% off (4th), -14.1% def (4th), 5.7% st (3rd)
= Burke's: 0.66 team (3rd), 4th off, 6th def
Offense: The Seahawks offense has become better and better as the season went on as they opened up the playbook as Wilson got more and more acclimated to the offense. It was very evident early in the season that Wilson was given one or two reads and told to either throw or scramble (just watch the Tate/Jennings game again). That offense is totally different right now. In their 7-1 finish to the season, Wilson was brilliant, with 7 games with a passer rating above 100 (oddly, it was the 58-0 game that he didn't). The run game hasn't cooled off though, which is the strange part. Lynch had two massive games in the back-to-back 50-point extravaganza's, but even outside of those was consistently in the 4-5 y/r range all year long. Their receivers have stayed healthy (no small feat for Sidney Rice). Even Zach Miller stayed healthy all year long, though underutilized. The offense has stayed great for a while now, and though a rookie QB has never worked perfectly in the playoffs, Wilson is playing better than any rookie arguably ever. Rank: 3rd
Defense: The real reason why the Seahawks are so scary, though, is that defense, which is great at every level. The Seahawks defense is a testament to great drafting and a clear, concise and innovative plan. Let's start in front, where the Seahawks have used the rejuvenated Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin as their two best DEs, but up front their best players are their two massive DTs, Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane. Oddly, the Seahawks aren't a great run defense. The linebackers aren't all that great, but rookie Bobby Wagner has a great future, and KJ Wright is a nice player. The real treat is the secondary, which has passed its Adderall Suspension period. Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman make up the league's best corner tandem, and they have the size to play press coverage. Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas make up one of the best safety tandems. Overall, it is just a special secondary. Opponents had just a 71.8 rating against the Seahawks all year, which is great, as the Seahawks were one of the few teams to pick of more passes than allowed TDs. Their defense hasn't slowed down at all, giving up over 400 yards just once over the 2nd half of the season. It is a special unit playing really, really well right now. Rank: 1st
QB: As I eluded to, Russell Wilson is no normal rookie. He was really babied early in the season with limited routes and quick read-or-run plays, but Wilson has demonstrated a quick learning curve and is now running a much more exhaustive offense than he was early. Wilson has been careful with the ball, and while his scrambling isn't RGIII or Kaepernick, it isn't too far behind. In a really young NFC playoff field, even Russell's being a rookie isn't all that bad. Rank: 3rd
Coach: This is, strangely, Pete Carroll's 4th trip to the playoffs in his last 6 seasons as a head coach, but this seems to be a new Pete Carroll. For once, the team seems to be playing above its head, better than its talent. Carroll's style has undoubtedly worked, and his defense is the best in the league. I just don't think he is a great in-game coach in terms of time and game management. . Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: The Seahawks are demonstrably worse on the road, and most of the fall-off is the offense. The Seahawks score just 21.3 ppg and gain 342.5 ypg on the road (3-5), but scored 30.4 ppg and 358.8 ypg at home (8-0)
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: None. This is the best wild-card team, and I don't think they can't beat either. They match up worse with, again, Atlanta, who has depth in the secondary and good defensive lineman to contain that offense, and the Falcons offense can protect Ryan.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Again, they can beat either, but they have a better shot at beating the 49ers, who they just spanked two weeks ago. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers aren't as strong of a defense, and the Seahawks offense was able to get a good read at Kaepernick.
4.) Washington Redskins (10-6 = 436-388)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 436 ptf (4th), 388 pta (22nd), 6,131 ydf (5th), 6,043 yda (28th)
= Outsiders: 9.6% team (9th), 15.3% off (6th), 1.8% def (17th), -4.0% st (27th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (8th), 5th off, 24th def
Offense: This ranking will be considering what they are now, not what they were. I don't think people have solved the pistol with RGIII yet, but most of the problems that remain are reading the run options that RGIII does. What teams have somewhat solved is that passing game. They can really only consistently move the ball with play-action or screen passes. Griffin's completion percentage was down in the 2nd half. Either way, the passing offense just isn't that dynamic. What is dynamic, however, was that running game. Alfred Morris is incredible. Yes, running quarterbacks generally make the overall run game better (look at anywhere Michael Vick has been, or Denver last year with Tebow), but so much of Morris's yards have come after contact. He is really hard to bring down and makes great quick decisions. The passing offense is healthy, finally, outside of Griffin, as Pierre Garcon has returned to full form. They may start to miss having a dependable TE against the better defenses though, because Paulsen is decent, but barely a receiving threat. Overall, the Redskins offense is a little overrated from their early production, and RGIII is gimpy, but this is still a good offense. Rank: 5th
Defense: The defense just is not very good. That said, I am shocked they have even been as good as they have considering they lost Brian Orakpo early in the season. They have become a total blitz happy team, which leads to a ton of passing yards against, but also some mistakes. The Redskins allowed the 4th most passing TDs (31), but also got the 3rd most INTs (21), which is basically what Haslett is going for with that blitz happy defense. They blitz secondary players more than any other team in the NFL, which is probably a good use of a secondary which is not that good anyway. DeAngelo Hall is still mightily overrated, and the rest (Doughty, Wilson, etc.) are just guys. The Redskins defense has really done this with random guys (and London Fletcher, who is as good as he always is) and that is commendable, but against the offenses in the NFC, it probably won't be good enough, especially since the NFC has a ton of QBs that can run, which is a great blitz-beater. Rank: 6th
QB: Robert Griffin is in a perfect offense. Somehow, he never has to go to a 3rd or 4th read. That is a credit to the design and scheme of that offense. That said, Griffin is also part of what makes them special. I have never seen a QB do a fake-handoff that well in my life. I have no idea how defenses can read that play. The big issue with Griffin is he hasn't looked the same running since the injury. Rank: 4th
Coach: Mike Shanahan is one of just three Super Bowl winning QBs in the playoff field this year, but that Super Bowl success was a long time ago. In fact, any playoff game for Shanahan was a long time ago (2005 AFC Championship was his last). Shanahan's been great this year, as has his son and their offense, and he has become quite aggressive over the years. Rank: 3rd
Interesting Note: The Redskins have made the playoffs three times in the last eight years (this year, along with 2005 and 2007). Each time, they entered off a nice late run, winning 5 straight to finish a 10-6 season in 2005 and four straight to finish a 9-7 season in 2007. Both times they lost playoff games to.... the Seahawks.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who is a better version of Washington, with their own funky offense and running QB, but that QB has better weapons. The 49ers also have a much better defense in every conceivable way. I think that would not be a close game at all.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, as the Falcons struggle against the run, and the Falcons offense is susceptible to the blitz, which of course the Redskins love. In a weird way, the Falcons probably want the Redskins to lose against Seattle.
3.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 = 433-336)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 433 ptf (5th), 336 pta (11th), 5,751 ydf (13th), 5,388 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: 26.6% team (5th), 19.3% off (3rd), -7.3% def (8th), -0.2% st (18th)
= Burke's: 0.59 team (5th), 8th off, 9th def
Offense: The Packers offense is a strange fig. Aaron Rodgers had another dominant season, with a league-high 108.0 rating and 39 TDs to just 8 INTs. But he got sacked a bunch, again, and that led to some strange scoring outputs. The run game is still a mystery, because they have a bunch of random guys running, and another than DaJuan Harris, none of them were really effective, but add it all together and the run game was decent. The pass game had receivers come in and out of the lineup, and the one constant was the mercurial drop-happy James Jones, but now they are all healthy. The weirdest part of the Packers: their scoring. 433 points overall is great, but 131 of those points came in three games (@HOU, vs. TEN, @MIN). They had some strange low-scoring games at home, like scoring just 21 against Jacksonville, or 24 and 27 against Detroit (all three games the Packers got a return TD). All in all, the Packers are still the best offense to me in the NFC right now, and they are healthier than ever with their receivers, and could easily go on a run like they did in 2010. Rank: 1st
Defense: The Packers went 15-1 last season and are a glamour team with a glamour QB, yet quietly nearly nabbed the #2 seed, and even more quietly improved their defense drastically from 2011. We always knew that 2011 had a chance to be a fluke in terms of how awful the Packers defense was, given that it was a good unit in 2009 and 2010 and the personnel was largely the same. The odd part was a lot of that personnel was hurt, like Woodson and Matthews, and the rookies stepped up, like MD Jennings, Casey Heyward and Jerel Worthy (who is now hurt). The Packers pass rush has come back with a vengeance this season (46 sacks), and while their pick-happy ways quieted, Tramon Williams returned to playing great coverage. Again, it is hard to imagine why this improvement happened given their best guys missed time, but it has happened, and while they aren't the best defense in the field, they have more than enough talent to hold opponents near 20 points, which is all this defense needs. Rank: 4th
QB: Aaron Rodgers is really good. If he has one flaw, it is a flaw everyone knows, and that is he holds the ball too long and takes too many sacks (still too many even when considering the bad protection he has). He is really accurate (though he tries to fit too many small windows which leads to incompletions), he can throw on the run. He can do everything. Let's move on. Rank: 1st
Coach: Mike McCarthy is a pretty good coach. His offenses are designed brilliantly, and utilize each weapon in their own ways, like designing a whole section of a playbook for Randall Cobb this year. The one issue with him is he gets conservative and runs way too much, but his play-calling is good enough to overcome that. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Note: The Packers didn't lose a playoff game at home until 2002, but since that snowy day where Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons walked into Lambeau, they are just 2-4 at home in the playoffs.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who they lost to 30-22 (game wasn't nearly that close) back in Week 1 at home. The 49ers defense matches up really well in all levels, being able to contain the short routes with their coverage linebackers. The last game featured Alex Smith, so I'm not sure how the Packers would play against Kaepernick.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, although it almost certainly will not be 48-21 this time around like it was in 2010. The Falcons offense hasn't been able to throw deep on the Packers, and the Falcons defense hasn't been able to contain Rodgers at all.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 = 397-273)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 397 ptf (11th), 273 pta (2nd), 5,789 ydf (11th), 4,710 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: 29.9% team (4th), 17.0% off (5th), -14.3% def (2nd), -1.5% st (20th)
= Burke's: 0.69 team (2nd), 3rd off, 3rd def
Offense: So, did anything interesting happen to the 49ers offense this season? The next few weeks will give is the answer to the question of "Did Jim Harbaugh make the right choice?" The answer so far has been muddy. Kaepernick started out great against Chicago, then had an average performance against St. Louis. When everyone started questioning the move, Kaepernick went out and for the most part lit up the Pats, but then had a slow finish. Oddly, both QBs threw 218 passes this season, and statistically, Smith was still better, but the offense hasn't fallen that much. The Week 17 game was the first game in the Kaepernick era where the 49ers gained over 400 yards, but even in the Smith era they only gained 400 yards once (the 618 against Buffalo). They were just incredible consistent and efficient all year long. Not having Kendall Hunter hurts, but Kaepernick's running almost makes up for it, and LaMichael James had a nice cameo late. The receiving game has changed under Kaepernick to more deep routes, which utilizes Mario Manningham and Randy Moss more, but has underutilized Vernon Davis, which could be an issue going forward. Overall, the 49ers are still the same: a beautifully constructed, efficient offense, but they are a little more volatile right now. Rank: 2nd
Defense: The big question is if Justin Smith will be ready or healthy come the divisional round. He makes that defensive front work. He makes Aldon Smith into a pass rushing mosnter. Ray McDonald and Isaac Sopoaga are good players, but Smith is a dominant one. The linebackers are amazing in coverage, but they haven't really found a great way to use them in blitzes outside of Smith. The secondary has talent, but isn't always consistent. Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner are about as good of a safety tandem as any in the league, and they have depth at corner. However, all this adds to is that the 49ers have a great defense at every level, but that defense is just not as good as the Seahawks defense at any level. It can be, but it isn't as young, healthy or consistent. Rank: 2nd
QB: As I mentioned, both Kaepernick and Smith threw 218 passes. Smith was more efficient, completing 153 to 136 passes, for more TDs and a better rating (104.1 vs. 98.3). Kaepernick is more dynamic with more yards per attempt and completion, but more importantly, he's been extremely careful with the ball, throwing just three picks, but the inaccuracy might be a problem. Rank: 5th
Coach: Jim Harbaugh made his great decision, and the jury is still out as to whether it was the right one or not. So, let's evaluate Harbaugh and the staff outside of that move. The still design run plays better than any other team. They still use more weapons and formations that any other team (though it is a little more streamlined now). Vic Fangio uses that defense well also. Just a really good, competent coaching staff. Rank: 1st
Interesting Note: The 49ers are the first team to repeat as the #2 seed since, well... the 1989 & 1990 New York Giants. Teams often repeat as bye-teams, or #1 seeds, but being the #2 team in your conference two straight years is a strange and rare feat.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3 = 419-299)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 419 ptf (7th), 299 pta (5th), 5,906 ydf (8th), 5,849 (24th)
= Outsiders: 9.1% team (10th), 6.1% off (12th), -2.9% def (12th), 0.1% st (16th)
= Burke's: 0.57 (8th), 13th off, 17th def
Offense: The Falcons had to throw more this year than any year in the past as Michael Turner is well past his prime, and Jacquizz Rodgers isn't the runner many imagined he would be, but Matt Ryan and that passing offense still threw it well. Matt Ryan had the best year of his career this season, and a lot of that is the improvement of Julio Jones into a more complete receiver. He isn't just a deep threat, and his presence has even taken pressure away from Roddy White, he is now being used in a more efficient role, instead of the high-volume, low-efficiency way he was used when Ryan was throwing his way 180 times. Tony Gonzalez is ageless, and it is just amazing how good he was in 2012 at his age. The o-line is good, but doesn't handle the blitz well. Most top QBs play better when blitzed, but Matt Ryan is not one of them. They do have a slight problem turning yards into points in a lot of games, as they had way too many games scoring in the low 20's which they will need to improve on in the playoffs. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Falcons defense started the year with three good to great corners in Asante Samuel, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. Grimes is gone for the year, and Dunta got hurt in Week 17 (but should play), and Asante Samuel was great as usual. Their safeties are active all over the field, and Mike Nolan uses Thomas DeCoud and William Moore in coverage and as blitzers. While the Falcons are known for playing really well at home, but this year that impact has been felt defensively. They allowed 20.4 ppg and 377.8 ypg on the road, but stiffened up to 17 ppg and 353.4 ypg at home. They had three marquee home games, against the Broncos, Saints and Giants, and in those games, they allowed 34 points total, and picked off the Mannings and Drew Brees 10 times and allowed just 1 TD. They went down or rose to the level of the competition on defense, and that bodes well for the playoffs. Rank: 3rd
QB: Matt Ryan had the best season of his career, holding value through 615 throws, throwing for 7.7 y/a, 32 TDs and 14 INTs for a career-high 99.1 rating. Ryan once again was great in close games, leading numerous comebacks this year. That said, he had a weird penchant for having slow starts at home, including a 3-pick game against the Raiders and 5-pick game against the Cardinals, so that is something to look out for. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike Smith is a nice guy and a fine coach, but he has been exposed in the playoffs for strange management decisions (like the one snap-count in the 2008 Wild Card game, the 4th down decisions last year, and the weird two-minute drill against Green Bay that ended in a pick-6). As for the coordinators, Mike Nolan gets blitz-happy at times, but it has worked.. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: The Falcons are the #1 seed for the 2nd time in three years, and of course the last time they lost infamously 48-21 in the divisional round. Here are the list of coaches that have lost twice in the divisional round after having the #1 seed: Marty Schottenheimer.
Coming Up Next: Wild-Card Weekend Picks
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 379 ptf (14th), 348 pta (14th), 5,385 ydf (20th), 5,600 yda (16th)
= Outsiders: 2.0% team (14th), 0.3% off (15th), 3.1% def (21st), 4.7% st (5th)
= Burke's: 0.45 team (23rd), 25th off, 13th def
Offense: I like that in 2012, we have mostly weak wild-cards. It is like being back in the old NFL. Anyway, returning to the present, the Vikings aren't exactly a great team in any way, but they are good at most things. The one place they are obviously phenomenal at is running the ball. Now this is no new information here. Adrian Peterson ran for over six yards per carry over 348 carries, which is just stupid good. Peterson started out a little slow (understandable since he was coming off of ACL surgery), but starting with the 7th game of the year (vs Arizona), and Peterson ran for 153 yards on 25 carries (6.35 y/r). Since then, he had just two games with a yards-per-rush less than 5 (and one of them was 4.95). He is just incredible. Of course, this is still a passing league, and Christian Ponder is not that good, and his receivers are about as bad. With Percy Harvin gone, they don't have their big matchup advantage at receiver, and you get guys like Michael Jenkins and Jarius Wright. The one good part about the passing game is it is low-risk and doesn't turn over the ball too much. Overall, in the playoffs you need to throw at some point, and I just don't think the Vikings can. Rank: 6th
Defense: The Vikings defense quietly was strong for much of the season. It is still built with their defensive front. Jared Allen is still a dynamic pass rusher with 12 sacks this season, but they have some depth, as Brian Robinson took a step up, as did Eversen Griffin (both with 8+ sacks). The tackles aren't the same, but still good. The back seven is not great, however. Chad Greenway is still a great player, but he's getting a bit slower, and Jasper Brinkley and Erin Henderson are both a little green. The secondary lost Antoine Winfield last week, and it is manned by a lot of young players like Harrison Smith and AJ Jefferson. The defense has to be run through that front and especially those defensive ends. If you look at the Vikings, they had 33 sacks in the 10 wins against just 11 in their six losses. If the pass rush can get home, they can be a good defense, but if it doesn't the Vikings don't have enough behind that front to really contain anyone. Rank: 5th
QB: Just listing the fact that the Vikings' QB is one Christian Ponder should be enough to merit why I have him ranked 6th out of the playoff QBs. So, I'll talk quickly about what Ponder does well. Ponder is low risk, as he threw few interceptions for what is perceived to be such a bad QB. His completion percentage is decent and he can run. OK, I'm done trying here. Christian Ponder is not very good, but when he does play well, the Vikings suddenly become a really tough team to beat. Rank: 6th
Coach: The NFC Playoff coaches are really deep this year, and if you count appearances in past jobs, Frazier is the only playoff 1st-timer in the field. I like Leslie Frazier, and I think he schemes and prepares his defense really well. He always can get d-lines to play well and have a deep rotation. I'm not too well versed on his clock management, but just the fact that he hasn't done this before is enough for me to be a little skeptical about Frazier. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: The Vikings, despite being a run-first team with a short, limited passing game, does seem to play much better in a dome, as they are 0-5 in outdoor games. They were 7-1 at home, so if you do a little math, you can see that they were 3-1 in indoor road games (wins @DET, @STL, @HOU with a loss @IND).
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: Atlanta, though they do match up well with Atlanta's defense because Atlanta does struggle at times against the run, but the Falcons offense should shred this Vikings defense. The Falcons tackles are good and could limit the Vikings pass rush, and throw all over that secondary.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: San Francisco, as they have done it already. That was a strange game where Peterson did close to nothing, but Ponder played really well and they dominated time of possession and beat the 49ers at their own game.
5.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5 = 412-245)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 412 ptf (9th), 245 pta (1st), 5,610 ydf (17th), 4,899 yda (4th)
= Outsiders: 38.3% team (1st), 18.5% off (4th), -14.1% def (4th), 5.7% st (3rd)
= Burke's: 0.66 team (3rd), 4th off, 6th def
Offense: The Seahawks offense has become better and better as the season went on as they opened up the playbook as Wilson got more and more acclimated to the offense. It was very evident early in the season that Wilson was given one or two reads and told to either throw or scramble (just watch the Tate/Jennings game again). That offense is totally different right now. In their 7-1 finish to the season, Wilson was brilliant, with 7 games with a passer rating above 100 (oddly, it was the 58-0 game that he didn't). The run game hasn't cooled off though, which is the strange part. Lynch had two massive games in the back-to-back 50-point extravaganza's, but even outside of those was consistently in the 4-5 y/r range all year long. Their receivers have stayed healthy (no small feat for Sidney Rice). Even Zach Miller stayed healthy all year long, though underutilized. The offense has stayed great for a while now, and though a rookie QB has never worked perfectly in the playoffs, Wilson is playing better than any rookie arguably ever. Rank: 3rd
Defense: The real reason why the Seahawks are so scary, though, is that defense, which is great at every level. The Seahawks defense is a testament to great drafting and a clear, concise and innovative plan. Let's start in front, where the Seahawks have used the rejuvenated Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin as their two best DEs, but up front their best players are their two massive DTs, Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane. Oddly, the Seahawks aren't a great run defense. The linebackers aren't all that great, but rookie Bobby Wagner has a great future, and KJ Wright is a nice player. The real treat is the secondary, which has passed its Adderall Suspension period. Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman make up the league's best corner tandem, and they have the size to play press coverage. Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas make up one of the best safety tandems. Overall, it is just a special secondary. Opponents had just a 71.8 rating against the Seahawks all year, which is great, as the Seahawks were one of the few teams to pick of more passes than allowed TDs. Their defense hasn't slowed down at all, giving up over 400 yards just once over the 2nd half of the season. It is a special unit playing really, really well right now. Rank: 1st
QB: As I eluded to, Russell Wilson is no normal rookie. He was really babied early in the season with limited routes and quick read-or-run plays, but Wilson has demonstrated a quick learning curve and is now running a much more exhaustive offense than he was early. Wilson has been careful with the ball, and while his scrambling isn't RGIII or Kaepernick, it isn't too far behind. In a really young NFC playoff field, even Russell's being a rookie isn't all that bad. Rank: 3rd
Coach: This is, strangely, Pete Carroll's 4th trip to the playoffs in his last 6 seasons as a head coach, but this seems to be a new Pete Carroll. For once, the team seems to be playing above its head, better than its talent. Carroll's style has undoubtedly worked, and his defense is the best in the league. I just don't think he is a great in-game coach in terms of time and game management. . Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: The Seahawks are demonstrably worse on the road, and most of the fall-off is the offense. The Seahawks score just 21.3 ppg and gain 342.5 ypg on the road (3-5), but scored 30.4 ppg and 358.8 ypg at home (8-0)
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: None. This is the best wild-card team, and I don't think they can't beat either. They match up worse with, again, Atlanta, who has depth in the secondary and good defensive lineman to contain that offense, and the Falcons offense can protect Ryan.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Again, they can beat either, but they have a better shot at beating the 49ers, who they just spanked two weeks ago. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers aren't as strong of a defense, and the Seahawks offense was able to get a good read at Kaepernick.
4.) Washington Redskins (10-6 = 436-388)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 436 ptf (4th), 388 pta (22nd), 6,131 ydf (5th), 6,043 yda (28th)
= Outsiders: 9.6% team (9th), 15.3% off (6th), 1.8% def (17th), -4.0% st (27th)
= Burke's: 0.57 team (8th), 5th off, 24th def
Offense: This ranking will be considering what they are now, not what they were. I don't think people have solved the pistol with RGIII yet, but most of the problems that remain are reading the run options that RGIII does. What teams have somewhat solved is that passing game. They can really only consistently move the ball with play-action or screen passes. Griffin's completion percentage was down in the 2nd half. Either way, the passing offense just isn't that dynamic. What is dynamic, however, was that running game. Alfred Morris is incredible. Yes, running quarterbacks generally make the overall run game better (look at anywhere Michael Vick has been, or Denver last year with Tebow), but so much of Morris's yards have come after contact. He is really hard to bring down and makes great quick decisions. The passing offense is healthy, finally, outside of Griffin, as Pierre Garcon has returned to full form. They may start to miss having a dependable TE against the better defenses though, because Paulsen is decent, but barely a receiving threat. Overall, the Redskins offense is a little overrated from their early production, and RGIII is gimpy, but this is still a good offense. Rank: 5th
Defense: The defense just is not very good. That said, I am shocked they have even been as good as they have considering they lost Brian Orakpo early in the season. They have become a total blitz happy team, which leads to a ton of passing yards against, but also some mistakes. The Redskins allowed the 4th most passing TDs (31), but also got the 3rd most INTs (21), which is basically what Haslett is going for with that blitz happy defense. They blitz secondary players more than any other team in the NFL, which is probably a good use of a secondary which is not that good anyway. DeAngelo Hall is still mightily overrated, and the rest (Doughty, Wilson, etc.) are just guys. The Redskins defense has really done this with random guys (and London Fletcher, who is as good as he always is) and that is commendable, but against the offenses in the NFC, it probably won't be good enough, especially since the NFC has a ton of QBs that can run, which is a great blitz-beater. Rank: 6th
QB: Robert Griffin is in a perfect offense. Somehow, he never has to go to a 3rd or 4th read. That is a credit to the design and scheme of that offense. That said, Griffin is also part of what makes them special. I have never seen a QB do a fake-handoff that well in my life. I have no idea how defenses can read that play. The big issue with Griffin is he hasn't looked the same running since the injury. Rank: 4th
Coach: Mike Shanahan is one of just three Super Bowl winning QBs in the playoff field this year, but that Super Bowl success was a long time ago. In fact, any playoff game for Shanahan was a long time ago (2005 AFC Championship was his last). Shanahan's been great this year, as has his son and their offense, and he has become quite aggressive over the years. Rank: 3rd
Interesting Note: The Redskins have made the playoffs three times in the last eight years (this year, along with 2005 and 2007). Each time, they entered off a nice late run, winning 5 straight to finish a 10-6 season in 2005 and four straight to finish a 9-7 season in 2007. Both times they lost playoff games to.... the Seahawks.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who is a better version of Washington, with their own funky offense and running QB, but that QB has better weapons. The 49ers also have a much better defense in every conceivable way. I think that would not be a close game at all.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, as the Falcons struggle against the run, and the Falcons offense is susceptible to the blitz, which of course the Redskins love. In a weird way, the Falcons probably want the Redskins to lose against Seattle.
3.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 = 433-336)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 433 ptf (5th), 336 pta (11th), 5,751 ydf (13th), 5,388 yda (11th)
= Outsiders: 26.6% team (5th), 19.3% off (3rd), -7.3% def (8th), -0.2% st (18th)
= Burke's: 0.59 team (5th), 8th off, 9th def
Offense: The Packers offense is a strange fig. Aaron Rodgers had another dominant season, with a league-high 108.0 rating and 39 TDs to just 8 INTs. But he got sacked a bunch, again, and that led to some strange scoring outputs. The run game is still a mystery, because they have a bunch of random guys running, and another than DaJuan Harris, none of them were really effective, but add it all together and the run game was decent. The pass game had receivers come in and out of the lineup, and the one constant was the mercurial drop-happy James Jones, but now they are all healthy. The weirdest part of the Packers: their scoring. 433 points overall is great, but 131 of those points came in three games (@HOU, vs. TEN, @MIN). They had some strange low-scoring games at home, like scoring just 21 against Jacksonville, or 24 and 27 against Detroit (all three games the Packers got a return TD). All in all, the Packers are still the best offense to me in the NFC right now, and they are healthier than ever with their receivers, and could easily go on a run like they did in 2010. Rank: 1st
Defense: The Packers went 15-1 last season and are a glamour team with a glamour QB, yet quietly nearly nabbed the #2 seed, and even more quietly improved their defense drastically from 2011. We always knew that 2011 had a chance to be a fluke in terms of how awful the Packers defense was, given that it was a good unit in 2009 and 2010 and the personnel was largely the same. The odd part was a lot of that personnel was hurt, like Woodson and Matthews, and the rookies stepped up, like MD Jennings, Casey Heyward and Jerel Worthy (who is now hurt). The Packers pass rush has come back with a vengeance this season (46 sacks), and while their pick-happy ways quieted, Tramon Williams returned to playing great coverage. Again, it is hard to imagine why this improvement happened given their best guys missed time, but it has happened, and while they aren't the best defense in the field, they have more than enough talent to hold opponents near 20 points, which is all this defense needs. Rank: 4th
QB: Aaron Rodgers is really good. If he has one flaw, it is a flaw everyone knows, and that is he holds the ball too long and takes too many sacks (still too many even when considering the bad protection he has). He is really accurate (though he tries to fit too many small windows which leads to incompletions), he can throw on the run. He can do everything. Let's move on. Rank: 1st
Coach: Mike McCarthy is a pretty good coach. His offenses are designed brilliantly, and utilize each weapon in their own ways, like designing a whole section of a playbook for Randall Cobb this year. The one issue with him is he gets conservative and runs way too much, but his play-calling is good enough to overcome that. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Note: The Packers didn't lose a playoff game at home until 2002, but since that snowy day where Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons walked into Lambeau, they are just 2-4 at home in the playoffs.
Top-2 Seed They Can't Beat: San Francisco, who they lost to 30-22 (game wasn't nearly that close) back in Week 1 at home. The 49ers defense matches up really well in all levels, being able to contain the short routes with their coverage linebackers. The last game featured Alex Smith, so I'm not sure how the Packers would play against Kaepernick.
Top-2 Seed They Can Beat: Atlanta, although it almost certainly will not be 48-21 this time around like it was in 2010. The Falcons offense hasn't been able to throw deep on the Packers, and the Falcons defense hasn't been able to contain Rodgers at all.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 = 397-273)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 397 ptf (11th), 273 pta (2nd), 5,789 ydf (11th), 4,710 yda (3rd)
= Outsiders: 29.9% team (4th), 17.0% off (5th), -14.3% def (2nd), -1.5% st (20th)
= Burke's: 0.69 team (2nd), 3rd off, 3rd def
Offense: So, did anything interesting happen to the 49ers offense this season? The next few weeks will give is the answer to the question of "Did Jim Harbaugh make the right choice?" The answer so far has been muddy. Kaepernick started out great against Chicago, then had an average performance against St. Louis. When everyone started questioning the move, Kaepernick went out and for the most part lit up the Pats, but then had a slow finish. Oddly, both QBs threw 218 passes this season, and statistically, Smith was still better, but the offense hasn't fallen that much. The Week 17 game was the first game in the Kaepernick era where the 49ers gained over 400 yards, but even in the Smith era they only gained 400 yards once (the 618 against Buffalo). They were just incredible consistent and efficient all year long. Not having Kendall Hunter hurts, but Kaepernick's running almost makes up for it, and LaMichael James had a nice cameo late. The receiving game has changed under Kaepernick to more deep routes, which utilizes Mario Manningham and Randy Moss more, but has underutilized Vernon Davis, which could be an issue going forward. Overall, the 49ers are still the same: a beautifully constructed, efficient offense, but they are a little more volatile right now. Rank: 2nd
Defense: The big question is if Justin Smith will be ready or healthy come the divisional round. He makes that defensive front work. He makes Aldon Smith into a pass rushing mosnter. Ray McDonald and Isaac Sopoaga are good players, but Smith is a dominant one. The linebackers are amazing in coverage, but they haven't really found a great way to use them in blitzes outside of Smith. The secondary has talent, but isn't always consistent. Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner are about as good of a safety tandem as any in the league, and they have depth at corner. However, all this adds to is that the 49ers have a great defense at every level, but that defense is just not as good as the Seahawks defense at any level. It can be, but it isn't as young, healthy or consistent. Rank: 2nd
QB: As I mentioned, both Kaepernick and Smith threw 218 passes. Smith was more efficient, completing 153 to 136 passes, for more TDs and a better rating (104.1 vs. 98.3). Kaepernick is more dynamic with more yards per attempt and completion, but more importantly, he's been extremely careful with the ball, throwing just three picks, but the inaccuracy might be a problem. Rank: 5th
Coach: Jim Harbaugh made his great decision, and the jury is still out as to whether it was the right one or not. So, let's evaluate Harbaugh and the staff outside of that move. The still design run plays better than any other team. They still use more weapons and formations that any other team (though it is a little more streamlined now). Vic Fangio uses that defense well also. Just a really good, competent coaching staff. Rank: 1st
Interesting Note: The 49ers are the first team to repeat as the #2 seed since, well... the 1989 & 1990 New York Giants. Teams often repeat as bye-teams, or #1 seeds, but being the #2 team in your conference two straight years is a strange and rare feat.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3 = 419-299)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 419 ptf (7th), 299 pta (5th), 5,906 ydf (8th), 5,849 (24th)
= Outsiders: 9.1% team (10th), 6.1% off (12th), -2.9% def (12th), 0.1% st (16th)
= Burke's: 0.57 (8th), 13th off, 17th def
Offense: The Falcons had to throw more this year than any year in the past as Michael Turner is well past his prime, and Jacquizz Rodgers isn't the runner many imagined he would be, but Matt Ryan and that passing offense still threw it well. Matt Ryan had the best year of his career this season, and a lot of that is the improvement of Julio Jones into a more complete receiver. He isn't just a deep threat, and his presence has even taken pressure away from Roddy White, he is now being used in a more efficient role, instead of the high-volume, low-efficiency way he was used when Ryan was throwing his way 180 times. Tony Gonzalez is ageless, and it is just amazing how good he was in 2012 at his age. The o-line is good, but doesn't handle the blitz well. Most top QBs play better when blitzed, but Matt Ryan is not one of them. They do have a slight problem turning yards into points in a lot of games, as they had way too many games scoring in the low 20's which they will need to improve on in the playoffs. Rank: 4th
Defense: The Falcons defense started the year with three good to great corners in Asante Samuel, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. Grimes is gone for the year, and Dunta got hurt in Week 17 (but should play), and Asante Samuel was great as usual. Their safeties are active all over the field, and Mike Nolan uses Thomas DeCoud and William Moore in coverage and as blitzers. While the Falcons are known for playing really well at home, but this year that impact has been felt defensively. They allowed 20.4 ppg and 377.8 ypg on the road, but stiffened up to 17 ppg and 353.4 ypg at home. They had three marquee home games, against the Broncos, Saints and Giants, and in those games, they allowed 34 points total, and picked off the Mannings and Drew Brees 10 times and allowed just 1 TD. They went down or rose to the level of the competition on defense, and that bodes well for the playoffs. Rank: 3rd
QB: Matt Ryan had the best season of his career, holding value through 615 throws, throwing for 7.7 y/a, 32 TDs and 14 INTs for a career-high 99.1 rating. Ryan once again was great in close games, leading numerous comebacks this year. That said, he had a weird penchant for having slow starts at home, including a 3-pick game against the Raiders and 5-pick game against the Cardinals, so that is something to look out for. Rank: 2nd
Coach: Mike Smith is a nice guy and a fine coach, but he has been exposed in the playoffs for strange management decisions (like the one snap-count in the 2008 Wild Card game, the 4th down decisions last year, and the weird two-minute drill against Green Bay that ended in a pick-6). As for the coordinators, Mike Nolan gets blitz-happy at times, but it has worked.. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: The Falcons are the #1 seed for the 2nd time in three years, and of course the last time they lost infamously 48-21 in the divisional round. Here are the list of coaches that have lost twice in the divisional round after having the #1 seed: Marty Schottenheimer.
Coming Up Next: Wild-Card Weekend Picks
