These recaps are going the way of my recaps in the 2009 Postseason (so Jan-Feb 2010).
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Texans (-4.5) over Bengals (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000)
Vikings (+7.5) over Packers (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000)
Ravens (-7) over Colts (CORRECT = 2-1 = +1000)
Seahawks (-2.5*) over Redskins (CORRECT = 3-1 = +1000)
Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 (+2000)
Playoffs: 3-1 (+2000)
Player of the Week - Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)
Anquan Boldin hasn't been the dynamic, bruising #1 receiver for Baltimore like he was in Arizona, but he was amazing in the Wild Card game. He absolutely dominated Cassius Vaughn and Darius Butler (granted, not exactly Hayes and Haynes). Five catches in the 2nd Half for 145 yards and a brilliant TD catch, grabbing the ball despite Darius Butler playing it perfectly. He had arguably the biggest play of the game, the first 50 yard catch and 3rd down when the Ravens were leading just 10-6. Anquan Boldin needs to be big next week if they have any chance in Denver, and he showed just how well the Ravens can move the ball when he is just that.
Runner-Up: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA) (Great game on the ground, plus his fumble elongated the interesting portion of that game, and finally, he had the most bad-ass fumble recovery I have ever seen, a welcome Eff-You to all the people who say "never try to pick up a fumble, just fall on it")
Goat of the Week - Mike Shanahan (Coach - WAS)
I'm giving it to Shanny partly because there aren't many great QBs. I don't want to pin the 'goat' label on Joe Webb (because he was totally unqualified for that game in that position). Anyway, the whole RGIII injury issue is dominating the conversation after Wild-Card weekend and for good reason. RGII was noticeably hobbling. He was noticeably not pushing up on his throws, sailing a bunch of them. Maybe RGIII wasn't 'hurt' enough to pull him, but in his condition, he couldn't perform in that offense. Then, after leaving Griffin in, he continued to call read option plays when Griffin couldn't run at all. What clinched Shanahan's spot for me, though, is that his justification was essentially, and I paraphrase, "RGIII told me he wasn't injured", which is a terrible admittance for the coach. The head coach is supposed to protect the players from themselves. What if this was a concussion, would Shanahan just accept any player lying about a concussion?
Runner-Up: Jermaine Gresham (TE-CIN) (I don't think the Bengals win anyway, but those early drops by Gresham, when the Texans weren't firing yet, really killed their chances. Again, not a big weekend for goats, as the losing teams were all the lesser teams, but Gresham had a fine season but a terrible wild-card game)
Surprise of the Week - Houston's Defensive Resurgence
The Texans defense was among the best units in the NFL through 10 games. Then Jonathan Joseph and Brooks Reed got hurt, and the defense went to hell for a bit. Well, for one week at least, it was back. JJ Watt was, of course, great, with a sack, three more tackles and a pass defense. Another monster performance for him. What was great to see, though, was the return of their coverage safeties, as Daniel Manning and, especially, Glover Quin, were great in coverage against Gresham and the secondary receivers. Jonathan Joseph finally looked like the Joseph that was the shut-down corner early in the season. Brooks Reed came back, and he and Barwin showed a rush that was missing from anyone not named Watt over the 2nd half of the season. They need all these things and more to win in New England, but if they can do it, then we might have a game on our hands next week.
Runner-Up: Paul Kruger (OLB-BAL) (Terrell Suggs is still playing hurt and noticeably less effective, but Kruger has really picked up the slack. He has been on fire the last few weeks, and is the one Ravens defender other than Ngata that scares me right now. He was a beast against an admittedly terrible o-line)
Disappointment of the Week - The Joe Webb Experiment
I'm not blaming Joe Webb. He hadn't thrown a pass all season and was tossed out into Lambeau Field in a playoff game in sub-freezing temperatures. But, I remember seeing Joe Webb against Minnesota two years ago against a pretty good defense in Philadelphia. I remember him coming in against Detroit last season (another playoff team) and lead a near-comeback. I saw that first drive where Joe Webb somehow escaped four Packers and ran for 20 yards, and Peterson was running right through the Packers. But then Joe Webb was made to throw, and it was all over. I credit NBC for really trying before the game to sell Joe Webb as a viable QB, that the switch from Ponder to Webb wouldn't be that impactful. Well, I bought into it as well. I was completely wrong. The only reason why I still have a ton of questions about the Packers defensively was that they just had the luxury of playing someone with Tebow's accuracy at QB. This season has been a year of less-than-fulfilling primetime games, and because of Joe Webb's cameo, we just had another one.
Runner-Up: Underdogs (All four favorites won, and not only won but covered. I track betting trends in the playoffs - an idea based on timing of games and performance by home teams and favorites - and this was the first time in the new playoff format since 2002, in a four-game weekend where all four favorites covered. Oddly, last week had three favorites cover in the Wild-Card round, until Denver ended things)
Team Performance of the Week - Houston's O-Line
I might be the only person on earth who was actually encouraged by Houston's performance in that game, giving them two of my three positive awards, but that is what you get for a weekend where most things went according to plan. Anyway, yes the Texans o-line opened up nice holes for Arian Foster all game, but more surprisingly, they dominated the Bengals pass rush. Geno Atkins was a non-factor, as were Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Domata Peko, and the rest of that good Cincy front. The gave Schaub a ton of time on most plays. Again, this is something they have to do just as well next week to have a chance, but they just dominated the trenches against the Bengals. Many people were wondering if the Bengals D-Line could win their matchup and swing the game, and the answer was a resounding no. Even Derek Newton, who has been really up-and-down this year, had a solid game.
Runner-Up: The Seahawks Offense (The Seahawks trailed that game 14-0, let's not forget. It was the most they have trailed all season long, and this was on the road (their kryptonite), against a jacked up defense that matched up well against them. The Seahawks offense then completed one crazy first down to Zach Miller, and they were off. Russell Wilson was really calm and confident in his reads, running well and making some great throws. Marshawn Lynch had a nice game outside of the fumble. Just a nice performance for a team that responded well to serious adversity)
Team Laydown of the Week - Colts' Catching Ability
I guess at some point I have to talk about the Colts, huh? I don't think they deserved to win that game. They didn't stop the Ravens at all (only Ray Rice's fumbles stopped the Ravens). That said, the ridiculous drops by the Colts were just maddening, to any Colts fan, anyone who bet on the Colts, or anyone who bet the over. Donnie Avery I understand because he drops balls all the time. Same with TY Hilton, who still had a fantastic rookie season. But Reggie Wayne dropping catchable balls? Dwayne Allen dropping a big catch? It was a fitting end to the game that Vick Ballard dropped what would have been a 1st down on 4th down. Andrew Luck wasn't great, but he was far better than anyone trying to catch the ball.
Runner-Up: Texans Red-Zone Offense (The red-zone performance of the Texans was pathetic. They should have scored way more than 9 points in that first half. Schaub once missed an open Andre Johnson in the end zone, and then threw a 5-yard pass on 3rd and 7 in the red zone, both leading to field goals. This is the one thing they can't do in New England, but over the last three games, the Texans have two TDs, and nine Field Goals)
Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground this Week - Can't Wait for NE @ DEN
I liken this to 2007, where everyone in the world was anticipating, and salivating at the prospect of, a Colts @ Patriots AFC Title Game, a rematch of the epic 2006 AFC Title Game and a rematch of Super Bowl 41.5, the first tight game the 16-0 Patriots had to play. Of course, Norv Turner, Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and Kenton Keith (trivia; one of those four played for the Colts) had other plans and beat the Colts 28-24. Ironically, the game more were worried about was a hot Jacksonville team going to New England. Anyway, fast-forward to this year. The Broncos and Patriots are great teams and look all but set to play in a great AFC Title Game. There are a few differences. While the Broncos are about as good as the 2007 Colts, this Patriots team is far worse than the 2007 Patriots. That said, the opponents in 2007 were better than the two opponents this week. I just think way too many people are dismissing the Ravens and Texans (who were 9-2 and 10-1 respectively a month ago), partly because they all want another Brady vs. Manning playoff game. Let's wait to breakdown that potential game if that game comes.
Runner-Up: The Falcons are vulnerable (You will hear it about a million times before this Sunday's game. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs. They were the #1 seed two years ago and lost to the 6th seeded Packers, and didn't just lose but were killed 48-21. They weren't great this year, and the Seahawks are everyone's darling. It will be interesting to see if that line - which opened at ATL by -2.5 - goes even lower during the week)
Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground this Week - All Hail the NFC!!
Remember back in October, when the NFC had the undefeated Falcons, the one-loss historically good on defense Bears, the defending champion Giants, the surprising Vikings, the sleeping-giant Packers, the dominant 49ers. Everyone was writing that the NFC was better. Part of this was that the eventual #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC started 3-3, but part of it is still true. The two best teams may be in the AFC, but the NFC is far more deep than the AFC, and that is coming into focus now. Despite one being a 11-6 team with a lot of playoff pedigree, and the other being a talented 13-4 team, both the road teams in the AFC are heavy underdogs. Over in the NFC, the road teams are a a team QBed by Aaron Rodgers, and the best team in the NFL over the 2nd half of the season. The NFC is showing is depth by giving us two great divisional games, on paper at least, instead of just teasing us with the prospect of one great Title Game, like the AFC is.
Runner-Up: Manning vs. Lewis (Truthfully, there weren't many great options, but I'll go with a personal favorite. Peyton Manning has squared off against Ray Lewis about as many times as he had Tom Brady, playing the Ravens in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and in the 2006 and 2009 playoffs. The Ravens won the first two, and the Colts won all of them since. Of course, they met earlier this year. Outside of Brady, this is the best offensive player of his era against the best defensive player of his era for the last time, and I can't wait to see the mental chessmatch one more time)
Ranking Next Week's Games
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) (Sat, 4:35 - CBS)
Despite what I just wrote, I think this is the game that is the least close on paper. The Broncos are a lot better than the Ravens on offense, and better on defense. They just played four weeks ago in Baltimore and won quite easily. Peyton Manning has played great against the Ravens defense over his career. Not exactly an exciting game.
3.) Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4) (Sun, 4:35 - CBS)
This game is basically the same as the other AFC game, except for two points. The first is that the Texans are better than the Ravens (while the Patriots and Broncos are essentially even), and the first blowout meeting between the teams was in New England (while Denver's win was in Baltimore, making the result even worse). Either way, probably a easy win by New England anyway.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) (Sun, 1:00 - FOX)
Now we get to some real games. There is a lot of interesting angles to go into this game. The Falcons of course have to exorcise some playoff demons, especially given the events of Divisional Weekend two years ago. Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, Tony Gonzalez and the rest have a lot to prove. On the other side, the Seahawks are a really good team playing really well right now, but they still haven't been great on the road and now get a start essentially at 10 AM PST. The 1:00 game is rarely interesting on paper, but this is a real exception.
1.) Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) (Sat, 8:00 - FOX)
Remember that classic last year when the great offense in New Orleans went to Candlestick to play the great 49ers' defense? Well, this is basically the same. The 49ers defense gets another shot against a dynamic, but finesse passing game. There are some differences between the two, as the Packers offense isn't nearly as good as the Saints offense last year, but neither is the 49ers' defense. Also, Colin Kaepernick is in the spotlight now, and if he fails to do what Alex Smith did last year, then Jim Harbaugh will go through some adversity for the first time as a head coach of the 49ers.
Back later this week with something, just not sure what after an uninspiring weekend of playoff football.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Texans (-4.5) over Bengals (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000)
Vikings (+7.5) over Packers (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000)
Ravens (-7) over Colts (CORRECT = 2-1 = +1000)
Seahawks (-2.5*) over Redskins (CORRECT = 3-1 = +1000)
Wild Card Weekend: 3-1 (+2000)
Playoffs: 3-1 (+2000)
Player of the Week - Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)
Anquan Boldin hasn't been the dynamic, bruising #1 receiver for Baltimore like he was in Arizona, but he was amazing in the Wild Card game. He absolutely dominated Cassius Vaughn and Darius Butler (granted, not exactly Hayes and Haynes). Five catches in the 2nd Half for 145 yards and a brilliant TD catch, grabbing the ball despite Darius Butler playing it perfectly. He had arguably the biggest play of the game, the first 50 yard catch and 3rd down when the Ravens were leading just 10-6. Anquan Boldin needs to be big next week if they have any chance in Denver, and he showed just how well the Ravens can move the ball when he is just that.
Runner-Up: Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA) (Great game on the ground, plus his fumble elongated the interesting portion of that game, and finally, he had the most bad-ass fumble recovery I have ever seen, a welcome Eff-You to all the people who say "never try to pick up a fumble, just fall on it")
Goat of the Week - Mike Shanahan (Coach - WAS)
I'm giving it to Shanny partly because there aren't many great QBs. I don't want to pin the 'goat' label on Joe Webb (because he was totally unqualified for that game in that position). Anyway, the whole RGIII injury issue is dominating the conversation after Wild-Card weekend and for good reason. RGII was noticeably hobbling. He was noticeably not pushing up on his throws, sailing a bunch of them. Maybe RGIII wasn't 'hurt' enough to pull him, but in his condition, he couldn't perform in that offense. Then, after leaving Griffin in, he continued to call read option plays when Griffin couldn't run at all. What clinched Shanahan's spot for me, though, is that his justification was essentially, and I paraphrase, "RGIII told me he wasn't injured", which is a terrible admittance for the coach. The head coach is supposed to protect the players from themselves. What if this was a concussion, would Shanahan just accept any player lying about a concussion?
Runner-Up: Jermaine Gresham (TE-CIN) (I don't think the Bengals win anyway, but those early drops by Gresham, when the Texans weren't firing yet, really killed their chances. Again, not a big weekend for goats, as the losing teams were all the lesser teams, but Gresham had a fine season but a terrible wild-card game)
Surprise of the Week - Houston's Defensive Resurgence
The Texans defense was among the best units in the NFL through 10 games. Then Jonathan Joseph and Brooks Reed got hurt, and the defense went to hell for a bit. Well, for one week at least, it was back. JJ Watt was, of course, great, with a sack, three more tackles and a pass defense. Another monster performance for him. What was great to see, though, was the return of their coverage safeties, as Daniel Manning and, especially, Glover Quin, were great in coverage against Gresham and the secondary receivers. Jonathan Joseph finally looked like the Joseph that was the shut-down corner early in the season. Brooks Reed came back, and he and Barwin showed a rush that was missing from anyone not named Watt over the 2nd half of the season. They need all these things and more to win in New England, but if they can do it, then we might have a game on our hands next week.
Runner-Up: Paul Kruger (OLB-BAL) (Terrell Suggs is still playing hurt and noticeably less effective, but Kruger has really picked up the slack. He has been on fire the last few weeks, and is the one Ravens defender other than Ngata that scares me right now. He was a beast against an admittedly terrible o-line)
Disappointment of the Week - The Joe Webb Experiment
I'm not blaming Joe Webb. He hadn't thrown a pass all season and was tossed out into Lambeau Field in a playoff game in sub-freezing temperatures. But, I remember seeing Joe Webb against Minnesota two years ago against a pretty good defense in Philadelphia. I remember him coming in against Detroit last season (another playoff team) and lead a near-comeback. I saw that first drive where Joe Webb somehow escaped four Packers and ran for 20 yards, and Peterson was running right through the Packers. But then Joe Webb was made to throw, and it was all over. I credit NBC for really trying before the game to sell Joe Webb as a viable QB, that the switch from Ponder to Webb wouldn't be that impactful. Well, I bought into it as well. I was completely wrong. The only reason why I still have a ton of questions about the Packers defensively was that they just had the luxury of playing someone with Tebow's accuracy at QB. This season has been a year of less-than-fulfilling primetime games, and because of Joe Webb's cameo, we just had another one.
Runner-Up: Underdogs (All four favorites won, and not only won but covered. I track betting trends in the playoffs - an idea based on timing of games and performance by home teams and favorites - and this was the first time in the new playoff format since 2002, in a four-game weekend where all four favorites covered. Oddly, last week had three favorites cover in the Wild-Card round, until Denver ended things)
Team Performance of the Week - Houston's O-Line
I might be the only person on earth who was actually encouraged by Houston's performance in that game, giving them two of my three positive awards, but that is what you get for a weekend where most things went according to plan. Anyway, yes the Texans o-line opened up nice holes for Arian Foster all game, but more surprisingly, they dominated the Bengals pass rush. Geno Atkins was a non-factor, as were Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Domata Peko, and the rest of that good Cincy front. The gave Schaub a ton of time on most plays. Again, this is something they have to do just as well next week to have a chance, but they just dominated the trenches against the Bengals. Many people were wondering if the Bengals D-Line could win their matchup and swing the game, and the answer was a resounding no. Even Derek Newton, who has been really up-and-down this year, had a solid game.
Runner-Up: The Seahawks Offense (The Seahawks trailed that game 14-0, let's not forget. It was the most they have trailed all season long, and this was on the road (their kryptonite), against a jacked up defense that matched up well against them. The Seahawks offense then completed one crazy first down to Zach Miller, and they were off. Russell Wilson was really calm and confident in his reads, running well and making some great throws. Marshawn Lynch had a nice game outside of the fumble. Just a nice performance for a team that responded well to serious adversity)
Team Laydown of the Week - Colts' Catching Ability
I guess at some point I have to talk about the Colts, huh? I don't think they deserved to win that game. They didn't stop the Ravens at all (only Ray Rice's fumbles stopped the Ravens). That said, the ridiculous drops by the Colts were just maddening, to any Colts fan, anyone who bet on the Colts, or anyone who bet the over. Donnie Avery I understand because he drops balls all the time. Same with TY Hilton, who still had a fantastic rookie season. But Reggie Wayne dropping catchable balls? Dwayne Allen dropping a big catch? It was a fitting end to the game that Vick Ballard dropped what would have been a 1st down on 4th down. Andrew Luck wasn't great, but he was far better than anyone trying to catch the ball.
Runner-Up: Texans Red-Zone Offense (The red-zone performance of the Texans was pathetic. They should have scored way more than 9 points in that first half. Schaub once missed an open Andre Johnson in the end zone, and then threw a 5-yard pass on 3rd and 7 in the red zone, both leading to field goals. This is the one thing they can't do in New England, but over the last three games, the Texans have two TDs, and nine Field Goals)
Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground this Week - Can't Wait for NE @ DEN
I liken this to 2007, where everyone in the world was anticipating, and salivating at the prospect of, a Colts @ Patriots AFC Title Game, a rematch of the epic 2006 AFC Title Game and a rematch of Super Bowl 41.5, the first tight game the 16-0 Patriots had to play. Of course, Norv Turner, Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and Kenton Keith (trivia; one of those four played for the Colts) had other plans and beat the Colts 28-24. Ironically, the game more were worried about was a hot Jacksonville team going to New England. Anyway, fast-forward to this year. The Broncos and Patriots are great teams and look all but set to play in a great AFC Title Game. There are a few differences. While the Broncos are about as good as the 2007 Colts, this Patriots team is far worse than the 2007 Patriots. That said, the opponents in 2007 were better than the two opponents this week. I just think way too many people are dismissing the Ravens and Texans (who were 9-2 and 10-1 respectively a month ago), partly because they all want another Brady vs. Manning playoff game. Let's wait to breakdown that potential game if that game comes.
Runner-Up: The Falcons are vulnerable (You will hear it about a million times before this Sunday's game. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs. They were the #1 seed two years ago and lost to the 6th seeded Packers, and didn't just lose but were killed 48-21. They weren't great this year, and the Seahawks are everyone's darling. It will be interesting to see if that line - which opened at ATL by -2.5 - goes even lower during the week)
Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground this Week - All Hail the NFC!!
Remember back in October, when the NFC had the undefeated Falcons, the one-loss historically good on defense Bears, the defending champion Giants, the surprising Vikings, the sleeping-giant Packers, the dominant 49ers. Everyone was writing that the NFC was better. Part of this was that the eventual #1 & #2 seeds in the AFC started 3-3, but part of it is still true. The two best teams may be in the AFC, but the NFC is far more deep than the AFC, and that is coming into focus now. Despite one being a 11-6 team with a lot of playoff pedigree, and the other being a talented 13-4 team, both the road teams in the AFC are heavy underdogs. Over in the NFC, the road teams are a a team QBed by Aaron Rodgers, and the best team in the NFL over the 2nd half of the season. The NFC is showing is depth by giving us two great divisional games, on paper at least, instead of just teasing us with the prospect of one great Title Game, like the AFC is.
Runner-Up: Manning vs. Lewis (Truthfully, there weren't many great options, but I'll go with a personal favorite. Peyton Manning has squared off against Ray Lewis about as many times as he had Tom Brady, playing the Ravens in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and in the 2006 and 2009 playoffs. The Ravens won the first two, and the Colts won all of them since. Of course, they met earlier this year. Outside of Brady, this is the best offensive player of his era against the best defensive player of his era for the last time, and I can't wait to see the mental chessmatch one more time)
Ranking Next Week's Games
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3) (Sat, 4:35 - CBS)
Despite what I just wrote, I think this is the game that is the least close on paper. The Broncos are a lot better than the Ravens on offense, and better on defense. They just played four weeks ago in Baltimore and won quite easily. Peyton Manning has played great against the Ravens defense over his career. Not exactly an exciting game.
3.) Houston Texans (13-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4) (Sun, 4:35 - CBS)
This game is basically the same as the other AFC game, except for two points. The first is that the Texans are better than the Ravens (while the Patriots and Broncos are essentially even), and the first blowout meeting between the teams was in New England (while Denver's win was in Baltimore, making the result even worse). Either way, probably a easy win by New England anyway.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3) (Sun, 1:00 - FOX)
Now we get to some real games. There is a lot of interesting angles to go into this game. The Falcons of course have to exorcise some playoff demons, especially given the events of Divisional Weekend two years ago. Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, Tony Gonzalez and the rest have a lot to prove. On the other side, the Seahawks are a really good team playing really well right now, but they still haven't been great on the road and now get a start essentially at 10 AM PST. The 1:00 game is rarely interesting on paper, but this is a real exception.
1.) Green Bay Packers (12-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) (Sat, 8:00 - FOX)
Remember that classic last year when the great offense in New Orleans went to Candlestick to play the great 49ers' defense? Well, this is basically the same. The 49ers defense gets another shot against a dynamic, but finesse passing game. There are some differences between the two, as the Packers offense isn't nearly as good as the Saints offense last year, but neither is the 49ers' defense. Also, Colin Kaepernick is in the spotlight now, and if he fails to do what Alex Smith did last year, then Jim Harbaugh will go through some adversity for the first time as a head coach of the 49ers.
Back later this week with something, just not sure what after an uninspiring weekend of playoff football.
