For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top
200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off
of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance
(what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant),
health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable.
Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of
the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time,
and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong
rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type
column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above
Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman
better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway,
let's get to #50-26
*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*
50.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
There is no real way to judge what Peyton Manning will be. Here’s my (biased - but attempting to be as unbiased as possible) take: Manning could have a 2009 type season. Let’s go back to 2009. We can look back and say that Manning had weapons (Wayne, Garcon, Collie, Clark), but heading into that season, after Anthony Gonzalez went down, Manning had two unproven wideouts. He turned those two into efficient players. Manning can do the same in Denver. Demaryius Thomas could be a star, but the real beneficiaries should be Eric Decker and Andre Caldwell (who played well with Carson Palmer as his QB). Manning should also have the best o-line he’s had since 2004-2006 in Indy. Age is really the only question here. If he’s healthy and ready, he should fly up this list.
49.) Cullen Jenkins (DT - PHI)
Cullen Jenkins left a team that just won the Super Bowl in large part because they had the NFL's #2 defense. That defense went from really good to literally Swiss Cheese (Wisconsin-style) without him. Jenkins went to Philly and the Eagles became the owners of the league's most dynamic d-line. They might not have the depth the Giants have up-front, but the Eagles 'Big 3' was awesome, and in all starts with Cullen. Jenkins was a beast against the run, with a 93% stop rate, and overall ranked 5th in fewest yards allowed for a d-lineman. He's squarely in his prime and should continue to be everything the Philly fans love (and the Packers need) in 2012.
48.) Ray Lewis (ILB - BAL)
Ray Lewis missed four games and the Ravens didn't really miss a beat defensively. That said, I doubt the Raven would want to test that cause/effect relationship again. His numbers were still strong, as he placed in the top-30 against the run for linebackers and in the top-10 in success rate against the pass. Lewis is 37 and really seems to be impervious to aging, as he's been trapped in this good but not great leader of a defense that can still make all the plays asked of him. In a defense with tons of playmakers around him, that is still tremendously valuable.
47.) Tyson Clabo (LG - ATL)
Tyson Clabo did not drop his play without the great Harvey Dahl beside him. Instead, he got better. With Sam Baker having an off year, and Todd McClure nearing the end of his run, Clabo is really important to the Falcons success this season and for the next. There is a reason why the Falcons ranked 9th when running behind his RG position, and by FO, averaged a ranking of 23 running to the other areas. There is talk he could move to LG, but wherever he goes, expect a lot of Michael Turner to follow.
46.) Carlos Rogers (CB - SF)
Carlos Rogers season looked great, and it grades out similarly well in FO's charting stats, with a top-10 success rate, with 18 passes defended and 6 interceptions. He was always a good corner with good ball skills, except those skills didn't involve the actual act of catching it. He finally got that part of his game in 2011 and those were the results. It was odd that the 49ers gave him a 4-year deal when he is already 31, but he plays corner in a way similar to Ike Taylor, and should age pretty well. It helps that the defense in front of him is mostly younger and scary good. Rogers should get plenty more opportunities to display his complete set of ball skills, feasting off the scraps that pass rush provides.
45.) Matt Forte (RB - CHI)
Matt Forte finally got his new contract. Good for him. He’s been insanely valuable for the Bears (apart from a flukey bad 2009), and proved it again in 2011. Had he played all 16 games (something he’s always done other than last season), he would have put up 270 rushes for 1,330 yards with a ypc around 4.9. With more importance placed on run-blocking under Mike Tice than there was under Mike Martz, Forte could excel even more. It will be interesting to see what type of year Forte could put up if the rest of that Bears’ offense gets close to his level.
44.) Wes Welker (WR - NE)
Wes Welker had a career-in-New-England-high 12.9 yards per reception last season. A lot of that had to do with his ridiculous beginning of the season. That said, Welker definitely had a bounce back season from a sub-par (for him) 2010 that featured 13 drops. Now he’s 30, and as noted in football outsiders, his production the last three years is eerily similar to TJ Houshmandzadeh’s production right before his career fell off a cliff. Now, I doubt Welker falls that quickly, but there is a reason the Patriots continue to not sign him long-term. He is still highly valuable, but there is definitely some decline that will be expected the next few seasons.
43.) LaMarr Woodley (OLB - PIT)
Woodley had an injury-plagued campaign in 2011 that saw his production in every area but sacks drop (he still had 9 sacks in 10 games), with just 13 hurries and having his worst season against the run in years. That all said, he was dynamite in 2010 (arguably the best player on that defense), and is still in his prime. If he stays healthy in 2012, he could be either in for a monster season building off of that sack per game total, or another year of odd decline. I would bet the former.
42.) James Harrison (OLB - PIT)
It just felt right to put these two next to each other. Harrisin is a young 34 since he didn't really play a lot until he turned 29. That should alleviate some of the injury concerns after he missed five games in 2011. His numbers prorated over a full season were vintage Harrison, as he had 17 hurries to go with the 9 sacks. He was as usual a dominant force against the run, placing 4th in success rate and 19th in fewest yards allowed per rush. Overall, Harrison continues to excel, but that D.O.B. is getting further and further into the past.
41.) Ryan Clady (LT - DEN)
Ryan Clady just got a $50 Million dollar extension, and he should be Peyton Manning’s blind-side protector for at least the rest of Manning’s career. That should make Manning quite happy, since ever since Tarik Glenn’s sudden retirement, his blind-side has been protected by average to awful player. The best part: Clady is better than Glenn. Clady did lead the league with 11 holding penalties, but it is a lot easier to commit holding with a QB that scrambles around all the time like Tebow. My guess is that number declines a lot with Manning in toe.
40.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB - JAX)
Oh, Mo-Jo Drew. It’s so sad that as he’s gotten better his team has gotten worse. He was just a pup when the Jaguars seemed to be the next great team after their magical 2007 season. Alas, that was the peak of the Jags, but nowhere near the peak for Maurice Jones-Drew. Almost single-handidly making the Jaguars offense anything greater than pathetic, Jones-Drew led the league in rushing, still remained a good dual-threat and continued to be one of the most powerful yet elusive backs in the NFL. In this new era where RB career stats will be depreciated with the two-back systems and passing increases, Maurice Jones Drew might be after Adrian Peterson the most accomplished RB of this little era. 40 years from now, his career might look a whole lot better.
39.) Jahri Evans (LG - NO)
We will now get to really see just how good Jahri Evans is, as he gets a chance to shine without Carl Nicks there next to him. It will be interesting to see if he can have the success now that he is the focus of the o-line instead of one of two. Evans had another great 2011 season, and his pass-blocking remains excellent, but with Carl Nicks’ supreme run-blocking gone, Evans needs to get better in this area. His role is even more important in that offense given Drew Brees’s height, since he needs a clear pocket in front of him to scan over defender. Evans is key to that happening.
38.) Eric Weddle (FS - SD)
He is so close to passing Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed for the title of best in the league. He might actually be there already. 7 more interceptions was nice, but the real story was his 2nd place ranking in success rate and the 5th rank in ypa allowed. He was actually worse against the run compared to normal, but he again made up for it with his best season against the pass yet. The Chargers drafts on defense from 2007-2010 were mostly garbage, but Weddle has bene the rare great find in that period for the "Lord of No Rings" AJ Smith.
37.) Hakeem Nicks (WR - NYG)
As of this writing, Hakeem Nicks is expected to be ready for week 1 after an offseason injury. That is great news for Eli Manning, who is looking to make Nicks into what Burress was. What is amazing about Hakeem is he plays so much bigger than his size (which isn't too scrawny). Those comically-large hands help as well. One of the most impressive things about Nicks wasn't the long touchdowns against Atlanta and Green Bay in last years playoffs, but that Bill Belichick specifically keyed on taking Nicks out of the Super Bowl, and he still had 10 catches for 104 yards. That evidence of special talents (so are the numbers he's put up as well).
36.) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
The league is just more fun when good ol' Rules and Regulations is in top form. With rookie Cam Newton, Smith exploded in a way that he hasn't since, dare I say, the peak of the Delhomme era. He had a 61% catch rate, which is most impressive when a good near 40% of the balls thrown to him were deep throws. He should just get better with Cam Newton's continued development. Age is of course an issue, but Smith has defied height and having Jake Delhomme as your QB to put up insane numbers at times (except for 2008, always during odd numbered years - '03, '05, '09, '11). I would expect the same in 2012, and if not, just go on Youtube and revel at the least appreciated great receiver of this era.
35.) Vernon Davis (TE - SF)
Vernon Davis had an interesting first three seasons, what with him underwhelming on the field and being chewed out repeatedly by Mike Singletary. In retrospect, we can all agree the odd-ball in that duo was Mike, not Vernon. Over the past three seasons, the man that is still just 28, has been one of the best TEs, especially given how little defenses have to worry about outside of him. His catch percentage was a career-high 71% in 2011, and although this coincided with him running more short routes than before, he really developed good chemistry with Alex Smith in those routes. It will be interesting to see if Davis sees even more short routes with the addition of Manningham and Moss, two guys who are known for going deep.
34.) Justin Tuck (DE - NYG)
Justin Tuck played his way through injuries throughout the middle of 2011, which is why his statistics don't grade out alll that well, but he got healthy late in the year, started to become the terror he had always been, and that coupled with his great production from 2009-2010 keep him with the lofty distinction of being the best DT/DE hybrid in the NFL once again. Tuck is still just 29, which is young for a DE, and if he stays out of the same nagging injuries he had in 2011, could be a force in 2012. That would be the far less surprising outcome than if he had the, for him, mediocre season he had again.
33.) LeSean McCoy (RB - PHI)
I doubt he gets 17 rushing TDs again, but other than that, McCoy will probably still remain one of the best running backs in the NFL. His receiving fell off, but mainly because he just wasn’t targeted as much this year. By DYAR he was the best running back in the NFL in 2011 (again, mostly because of those TDs) and he’s been among the very best over the past two seasons. In this Vick-era of the Eagles offense, Shady McCoy is the real key to that team, he’s the Marshall Fualk-lite in the machine.
32.) Philip Rivers (QB - SD)
To me, Rivers season in 2011 was a lot like Drew Brees's season in 2010. That year, Brees had 4,620 yards and 33/22 TDs to INTs. It was a flukily high number of interceptions coupled with a bunch or receiving yards. The difference was Brees's team went 11-5 since his defense picked up the slack. Rivers didn't. Now, Brees followed that up with one of the best QB seasons ever, and it will be damn hard for Rivers to do that without V-Jax, but Rivers nonetheless should have a much better year just because like Eli Manning proved after his 2010, strangely high interception totals usually aren't a good indicator of the next season.
31.) Troy Polamalu (SS - PIT)
Polamalu had a better year in 2011 than he had in 2010 (where he somehow won defensive player of the year over Haloti Ngata - or even Clay Matthews), but I overanked him so this is a correction. Polamalu continues to be a premier safety against the run, and his pass numbers improved. That said, he definitely has lost a step and is easier to scheme out of games, which was evident in their playoff loss to the Broncos. He's still among the best safeties in the game, but it probably won't be long before a guy like Weddle passes him.
30.) Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
How is Vince Wilfork just 31? I feel like he’s been in the NFL since the Tuck Rule. He may have had his best season since the heyday of the Patriots defense back in 2004, 2006 this past season. He was constantly double-teamed throughout 2010 and still managed to be a massible disruptive force, with a team-high stop rate of 80%. The rest of the Patriots front is a mix of garbage and journeymen. Vince makes it all come something close to working, and given that BB actually decided to pay him, it is quite clear how important Belichick thinks Wilfork is.
29.) Cameron Wake (OLB - MIA)
The only man to draw more holding calls than Brian Orakpo in 2010-2011 was Cameron Wake. Cameron Wake was an unholy terror in 2011 which overall was a bounce-back from overrated 2010 season. Wake had 39 hurries (2nd in the NFL), and like Matthews would do well to turn more of those hurries into sacks, but until then, being one of the most unblockable, most held edge rushers still makes Wake among the most valuable defensive players in a defense that took a step back in 2011.
28.) Mike Wallace (WR - PIT)
Mike Wallace is a historically good deep threat so far in his career. His yards per reception in his first three seasons are 19.4, 21.0 and 16.6. Yes, he was targeted closer to the line in 2011 than in either of his first two seasons, but that belies an increased catch rate, and the emergence of other deep threats like Antonio Brown. Chances are it will revert something closer to what happened in 2010, where 40% of the passes thrown Wallace's way went at least 20 yards. Wallace also was used in more bubble-screen action plays in 2011 which resulted in more YAC. He definitely is adding to his game, refining it. That is the truly scary part: that he isn't the full-out deep threat because he doesn't have to be to be exceptional.
27.) Joe Thomas (LT - CLE)
Joe Thomas had his first average year of his career. Now, a lot of that may be the very real regression of Colt McCoy, and the overall ineptness of that team on offense, and I do expect him to rebound in 2012 blocking for Weeden and opening holes for Trent Richardson, but Thomas just wasn't the same excellent player he was in 2011 that he had been to that point. Just like the Browns in general, there isn't much to say about Thomas really. Great player that just had merely a quite good season.
26.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*
50.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
There is no real way to judge what Peyton Manning will be. Here’s my (biased - but attempting to be as unbiased as possible) take: Manning could have a 2009 type season. Let’s go back to 2009. We can look back and say that Manning had weapons (Wayne, Garcon, Collie, Clark), but heading into that season, after Anthony Gonzalez went down, Manning had two unproven wideouts. He turned those two into efficient players. Manning can do the same in Denver. Demaryius Thomas could be a star, but the real beneficiaries should be Eric Decker and Andre Caldwell (who played well with Carson Palmer as his QB). Manning should also have the best o-line he’s had since 2004-2006 in Indy. Age is really the only question here. If he’s healthy and ready, he should fly up this list.
49.) Cullen Jenkins (DT - PHI)
Cullen Jenkins left a team that just won the Super Bowl in large part because they had the NFL's #2 defense. That defense went from really good to literally Swiss Cheese (Wisconsin-style) without him. Jenkins went to Philly and the Eagles became the owners of the league's most dynamic d-line. They might not have the depth the Giants have up-front, but the Eagles 'Big 3' was awesome, and in all starts with Cullen. Jenkins was a beast against the run, with a 93% stop rate, and overall ranked 5th in fewest yards allowed for a d-lineman. He's squarely in his prime and should continue to be everything the Philly fans love (and the Packers need) in 2012.
48.) Ray Lewis (ILB - BAL)
Ray Lewis missed four games and the Ravens didn't really miss a beat defensively. That said, I doubt the Raven would want to test that cause/effect relationship again. His numbers were still strong, as he placed in the top-30 against the run for linebackers and in the top-10 in success rate against the pass. Lewis is 37 and really seems to be impervious to aging, as he's been trapped in this good but not great leader of a defense that can still make all the plays asked of him. In a defense with tons of playmakers around him, that is still tremendously valuable.
47.) Tyson Clabo (LG - ATL)
Tyson Clabo did not drop his play without the great Harvey Dahl beside him. Instead, he got better. With Sam Baker having an off year, and Todd McClure nearing the end of his run, Clabo is really important to the Falcons success this season and for the next. There is a reason why the Falcons ranked 9th when running behind his RG position, and by FO, averaged a ranking of 23 running to the other areas. There is talk he could move to LG, but wherever he goes, expect a lot of Michael Turner to follow.
46.) Carlos Rogers (CB - SF)
Carlos Rogers season looked great, and it grades out similarly well in FO's charting stats, with a top-10 success rate, with 18 passes defended and 6 interceptions. He was always a good corner with good ball skills, except those skills didn't involve the actual act of catching it. He finally got that part of his game in 2011 and those were the results. It was odd that the 49ers gave him a 4-year deal when he is already 31, but he plays corner in a way similar to Ike Taylor, and should age pretty well. It helps that the defense in front of him is mostly younger and scary good. Rogers should get plenty more opportunities to display his complete set of ball skills, feasting off the scraps that pass rush provides.
45.) Matt Forte (RB - CHI)
Matt Forte finally got his new contract. Good for him. He’s been insanely valuable for the Bears (apart from a flukey bad 2009), and proved it again in 2011. Had he played all 16 games (something he’s always done other than last season), he would have put up 270 rushes for 1,330 yards with a ypc around 4.9. With more importance placed on run-blocking under Mike Tice than there was under Mike Martz, Forte could excel even more. It will be interesting to see what type of year Forte could put up if the rest of that Bears’ offense gets close to his level.
44.) Wes Welker (WR - NE)
Wes Welker had a career-in-New-England-high 12.9 yards per reception last season. A lot of that had to do with his ridiculous beginning of the season. That said, Welker definitely had a bounce back season from a sub-par (for him) 2010 that featured 13 drops. Now he’s 30, and as noted in football outsiders, his production the last three years is eerily similar to TJ Houshmandzadeh’s production right before his career fell off a cliff. Now, I doubt Welker falls that quickly, but there is a reason the Patriots continue to not sign him long-term. He is still highly valuable, but there is definitely some decline that will be expected the next few seasons.
43.) LaMarr Woodley (OLB - PIT)
Woodley had an injury-plagued campaign in 2011 that saw his production in every area but sacks drop (he still had 9 sacks in 10 games), with just 13 hurries and having his worst season against the run in years. That all said, he was dynamite in 2010 (arguably the best player on that defense), and is still in his prime. If he stays healthy in 2012, he could be either in for a monster season building off of that sack per game total, or another year of odd decline. I would bet the former.
42.) James Harrison (OLB - PIT)
It just felt right to put these two next to each other. Harrisin is a young 34 since he didn't really play a lot until he turned 29. That should alleviate some of the injury concerns after he missed five games in 2011. His numbers prorated over a full season were vintage Harrison, as he had 17 hurries to go with the 9 sacks. He was as usual a dominant force against the run, placing 4th in success rate and 19th in fewest yards allowed per rush. Overall, Harrison continues to excel, but that D.O.B. is getting further and further into the past.
41.) Ryan Clady (LT - DEN)
Ryan Clady just got a $50 Million dollar extension, and he should be Peyton Manning’s blind-side protector for at least the rest of Manning’s career. That should make Manning quite happy, since ever since Tarik Glenn’s sudden retirement, his blind-side has been protected by average to awful player. The best part: Clady is better than Glenn. Clady did lead the league with 11 holding penalties, but it is a lot easier to commit holding with a QB that scrambles around all the time like Tebow. My guess is that number declines a lot with Manning in toe.
40.) Maurice Jones-Drew (RB - JAX)
Oh, Mo-Jo Drew. It’s so sad that as he’s gotten better his team has gotten worse. He was just a pup when the Jaguars seemed to be the next great team after their magical 2007 season. Alas, that was the peak of the Jags, but nowhere near the peak for Maurice Jones-Drew. Almost single-handidly making the Jaguars offense anything greater than pathetic, Jones-Drew led the league in rushing, still remained a good dual-threat and continued to be one of the most powerful yet elusive backs in the NFL. In this new era where RB career stats will be depreciated with the two-back systems and passing increases, Maurice Jones Drew might be after Adrian Peterson the most accomplished RB of this little era. 40 years from now, his career might look a whole lot better.
39.) Jahri Evans (LG - NO)
We will now get to really see just how good Jahri Evans is, as he gets a chance to shine without Carl Nicks there next to him. It will be interesting to see if he can have the success now that he is the focus of the o-line instead of one of two. Evans had another great 2011 season, and his pass-blocking remains excellent, but with Carl Nicks’ supreme run-blocking gone, Evans needs to get better in this area. His role is even more important in that offense given Drew Brees’s height, since he needs a clear pocket in front of him to scan over defender. Evans is key to that happening.
38.) Eric Weddle (FS - SD)
He is so close to passing Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed for the title of best in the league. He might actually be there already. 7 more interceptions was nice, but the real story was his 2nd place ranking in success rate and the 5th rank in ypa allowed. He was actually worse against the run compared to normal, but he again made up for it with his best season against the pass yet. The Chargers drafts on defense from 2007-2010 were mostly garbage, but Weddle has bene the rare great find in that period for the "Lord of No Rings" AJ Smith.
37.) Hakeem Nicks (WR - NYG)
As of this writing, Hakeem Nicks is expected to be ready for week 1 after an offseason injury. That is great news for Eli Manning, who is looking to make Nicks into what Burress was. What is amazing about Hakeem is he plays so much bigger than his size (which isn't too scrawny). Those comically-large hands help as well. One of the most impressive things about Nicks wasn't the long touchdowns against Atlanta and Green Bay in last years playoffs, but that Bill Belichick specifically keyed on taking Nicks out of the Super Bowl, and he still had 10 catches for 104 yards. That evidence of special talents (so are the numbers he's put up as well).
36.) Steve Smith (WR - CAR)
The league is just more fun when good ol' Rules and Regulations is in top form. With rookie Cam Newton, Smith exploded in a way that he hasn't since, dare I say, the peak of the Delhomme era. He had a 61% catch rate, which is most impressive when a good near 40% of the balls thrown to him were deep throws. He should just get better with Cam Newton's continued development. Age is of course an issue, but Smith has defied height and having Jake Delhomme as your QB to put up insane numbers at times (except for 2008, always during odd numbered years - '03, '05, '09, '11). I would expect the same in 2012, and if not, just go on Youtube and revel at the least appreciated great receiver of this era.
35.) Vernon Davis (TE - SF)
Vernon Davis had an interesting first three seasons, what with him underwhelming on the field and being chewed out repeatedly by Mike Singletary. In retrospect, we can all agree the odd-ball in that duo was Mike, not Vernon. Over the past three seasons, the man that is still just 28, has been one of the best TEs, especially given how little defenses have to worry about outside of him. His catch percentage was a career-high 71% in 2011, and although this coincided with him running more short routes than before, he really developed good chemistry with Alex Smith in those routes. It will be interesting to see if Davis sees even more short routes with the addition of Manningham and Moss, two guys who are known for going deep.
34.) Justin Tuck (DE - NYG)
Justin Tuck played his way through injuries throughout the middle of 2011, which is why his statistics don't grade out alll that well, but he got healthy late in the year, started to become the terror he had always been, and that coupled with his great production from 2009-2010 keep him with the lofty distinction of being the best DT/DE hybrid in the NFL once again. Tuck is still just 29, which is young for a DE, and if he stays out of the same nagging injuries he had in 2011, could be a force in 2012. That would be the far less surprising outcome than if he had the, for him, mediocre season he had again.
33.) LeSean McCoy (RB - PHI)
I doubt he gets 17 rushing TDs again, but other than that, McCoy will probably still remain one of the best running backs in the NFL. His receiving fell off, but mainly because he just wasn’t targeted as much this year. By DYAR he was the best running back in the NFL in 2011 (again, mostly because of those TDs) and he’s been among the very best over the past two seasons. In this Vick-era of the Eagles offense, Shady McCoy is the real key to that team, he’s the Marshall Fualk-lite in the machine.
32.) Philip Rivers (QB - SD)
To me, Rivers season in 2011 was a lot like Drew Brees's season in 2010. That year, Brees had 4,620 yards and 33/22 TDs to INTs. It was a flukily high number of interceptions coupled with a bunch or receiving yards. The difference was Brees's team went 11-5 since his defense picked up the slack. Rivers didn't. Now, Brees followed that up with one of the best QB seasons ever, and it will be damn hard for Rivers to do that without V-Jax, but Rivers nonetheless should have a much better year just because like Eli Manning proved after his 2010, strangely high interception totals usually aren't a good indicator of the next season.
31.) Troy Polamalu (SS - PIT)
Polamalu had a better year in 2011 than he had in 2010 (where he somehow won defensive player of the year over Haloti Ngata - or even Clay Matthews), but I overanked him so this is a correction. Polamalu continues to be a premier safety against the run, and his pass numbers improved. That said, he definitely has lost a step and is easier to scheme out of games, which was evident in their playoff loss to the Broncos. He's still among the best safeties in the game, but it probably won't be long before a guy like Weddle passes him.
30.) Vince Wilfork (DT - NE)
How is Vince Wilfork just 31? I feel like he’s been in the NFL since the Tuck Rule. He may have had his best season since the heyday of the Patriots defense back in 2004, 2006 this past season. He was constantly double-teamed throughout 2010 and still managed to be a massible disruptive force, with a team-high stop rate of 80%. The rest of the Patriots front is a mix of garbage and journeymen. Vince makes it all come something close to working, and given that BB actually decided to pay him, it is quite clear how important Belichick thinks Wilfork is.
29.) Cameron Wake (OLB - MIA)
The only man to draw more holding calls than Brian Orakpo in 2010-2011 was Cameron Wake. Cameron Wake was an unholy terror in 2011 which overall was a bounce-back from overrated 2010 season. Wake had 39 hurries (2nd in the NFL), and like Matthews would do well to turn more of those hurries into sacks, but until then, being one of the most unblockable, most held edge rushers still makes Wake among the most valuable defensive players in a defense that took a step back in 2011.
28.) Mike Wallace (WR - PIT)
Mike Wallace is a historically good deep threat so far in his career. His yards per reception in his first three seasons are 19.4, 21.0 and 16.6. Yes, he was targeted closer to the line in 2011 than in either of his first two seasons, but that belies an increased catch rate, and the emergence of other deep threats like Antonio Brown. Chances are it will revert something closer to what happened in 2010, where 40% of the passes thrown Wallace's way went at least 20 yards. Wallace also was used in more bubble-screen action plays in 2011 which resulted in more YAC. He definitely is adding to his game, refining it. That is the truly scary part: that he isn't the full-out deep threat because he doesn't have to be to be exceptional.
27.) Joe Thomas (LT - CLE)
Joe Thomas had his first average year of his career. Now, a lot of that may be the very real regression of Colt McCoy, and the overall ineptness of that team on offense, and I do expect him to rebound in 2012 blocking for Weeden and opening holes for Trent Richardson, but Thomas just wasn't the same excellent player he was in 2011 that he had been to that point. Just like the Browns in general, there isn't much to say about Thomas really. Great player that just had merely a quite good season.
26.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
Roethlisberger limping around the field in two late-season losses last season (@SF and @DEN) can color the fact that he had mostly an outstanding season once again. Roethlisberger should be better in 2012 just because he probably will be healthier, and guys like Antonio Brown may take a leap. The best fact is that Roethlisberger might actually have a good pass-blocking o-line for once. As a rookie and sophomore Roethlisberger was among the most efficient QBs in the NFL with a great o-line. He'll still take sacks because that is just who Ben is, but his play could get better, and it already was quite good in 2011 after being awesome in 2010.
