For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top 200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance (what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant), health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable. Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time, and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway, let's get to #100-51
*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*
100.) Richard Sherman (CB - SEA)
With the league's receivers getting bigger and scarier by the year, Pete Carroll's plan to employ corners that are 6'2" and above might be one of the more prescient ideas in the NFL today. Richard Sherman ranked in the top-7 in both success rate and ypa allowed. Sure, he is a rookie, but Sherman's size and speed make him one of the most intriguing young cornerbacks in the NFL.
99.) Champ Bailey (CB - DEN)
Champ Bailey continues his long, slow and sad decline from the once-high peak of a future hall of famer, to what we now call “the valuable veteran presence.” In all honesty, his charting numbers are not good, but he still has the skills to play good man defense on short and intermediate routes. The issue is Bailey can get beaten deep way more now than in his prime.
98.) Robert Mathis (OLB - IND)
Mathis’s average yards allowed on a play where he was involved was in the top-20 of all defensive players. He still had 9.5 sacks and 19 hurries playing for a team with awful coverage allowing for quick throws, as well as a team who got run on, a lot. Robert Mathis is supposedly going to move fully to an OLB position, which might actually be a better natural fit given his slender frame. Either way, he and Freeney are still the keys for the Colts defense. Although, this time, if they are both good the defense overall will only avoid being awful, nothing more.
97.) Chris Clemons (DE - SEA)
Chris Clemons late-career resurgence continued at the same pace in 2011 that it did in 2010. Clemons had 11 more sacks, with 24 hurries and 26 defeats in 2011, and once again provided the most effective source of pass-rush the Seahawks had. Clemson was better against the run in 2011, but he was used more in a situational role in 2011, so those figures might be a little skewed.
96.) Eric Winston (RT - KC)
Eric Winston was one of the pre-eminent run blocking tackles in the NFL the past two seasons paving the way time and time again for Arian Foster. Now, we will get a good indication of whether or not Houston truly is the o-line factory of this era that Denver was of the last. It will be interesting to see how Winston performs as the focus point of an o-line in KC, instead of being just one of many greats in Houston.
95.) Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)
Reggie Wayne was reportedly quite mad the Colts didn't give Curtis Painter the starting gig right out of the gate. Of course, considering how bad Painter was, that belief seems silly, but Wayne definitely played angry last season. I love Wayne more than ever for not quitting when he went from having the best QB in the world throwing to him to two JAGs. Wayne's overall numbers dropped, but he still remains a top route runner with good hands. The explosiveness is gone, but his veteran savvy will be invaluable to the early development of Mr. Andrew Luck.
94.) Charles Woodson (CB - GB)
Woodson is the best slot-corner in the NFL, given his amazing success over the past three years filling the role. The Packers need him to keep his level of play, because the rest of the secondary was a mess throughout 2011. In 2011, Woodson ranked in the top-25 in both success rate and yards per pass allowed, which is incredible for a guy his age in that defense. It will be interesting to see when he gets inducted into the HOF how much credence is given to his time in Oakland. Anyway, just a random musing about a guy who’s longevity is becoming utterly stunning.
93.) Marshal Yanda (G - BAL)
There is a reason why the Ravens are a top-10 team when running behind Marshal Yanda. That reason is that Yanda is really, really good. He will need to continue to be every bit as good as the 2nd-team all-pro he was in 2011 with Ben Grubbs gone on the other side. Guard protection is really important in Baltimore, where Flacco has a tough time escaping rush up the middle (or any rush, really). Baltimore can be a good offense, but they will need Yanda to be great for it to happen.
92.) Demmaryius Thomas (WR - DEN)
If Demmaryius stays healthy, he can be a top-10 WR easily with Manning throwing him the ball. Peyton Manning has never had this sort of physical specimen that he can fire balls too. Sure, Thomas' route running can get better, but if you remember, Peyton had no problems with Garcon in that area (the hands were more of an issue - and Thomas rarely drops balls). If the Broncos offense is what I think it will be Dammaryius Thomas might just be one of the best receivers in this list next season.
91.) Darnell Dockett (DE - ARZ)
Darnell Dockett wasn’t the monster pass-rusher he was from 2009-2010 last season, but he still registered a team-high 23.5 hurries and was extremely active against the run, giving up just 1.1 yards against runs at him. He still makes up one of the best interior 3-4 lines in the league, and at 31 at a position that ages well, Dockett should continue to be a steady producer for 3-4 more years. Hopefully by then the Cardinals can find someone to replace him, as replacing one of the most underrated defensive players of the last 5-6 years will not be too easy.
90.) David Hawthorne (MLB - NO)
I have no idea why Pete Carroll and the Seattle conglomerate let Hawthorne go that easily. Sure, he wasn’t the best of linebackers, but he was sure-tackling, extremely durable and extremely active, taking part in 121 plays. The Saints are ironically getting a definite upgrade with Hawthorne taking the place of the as-of-now-and-hopefully-still-at-Week-One suspended Jonathan Vilma.
89.) Davin Joseph (LG - TB)
Davin Joseph had a bad year in 2011, but that may be more because of the team around him quitting. It isn’t easy to be a successful blocker when your team is in full mutiny against their coach, and the lineman around you completely embarrass themselves week-after week. Either way, with the addition of Carl Nicks, the line should get some stability, which should help Davin Joseph’s star shine once again.
88.) Geno Atkins (DT - CIN)
WalterFootball.com (another great site) once told me (or told anyone who read it) that Geno Atkins was a steal for the Bengals in the 2010 draft. I believed him then, and man was Walter right. Geno Atkins was a terror in his sophomore campaign, with 19.5 hurries and 8 sacks from the DT position, while ranking in the top-10 against the run. He’s got the upside to be the next Warren Sapp (or at least the next Kevin Williams to Ndamukong Suh’s Warren Sapp). I just hope he doesn’t have happen to him what happens to so many in Cincinnaticca.
87.) Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)
If you just look at the stats, Mathews had a hell of a season in 2011. 4.9 ypc on 222 carries with an average at best o-line. Catching 50 balls out of the 59 thrown his way. Ryan Mathews even placed #10 and #6 in DVOA and DYAR for running backs. That said, he had an odd propensity to get effectively benched randomly in games. The Chargers could easily utilize him more, and they probably should now that Mike Tolbert is gone.
86.) Trent Cole (DE - PHI)
24.5 hurries. 11 sacks. Top 10 in drawing holding flags. Great against the run. Still, he’s just the third highest ranking member of the Eagles Front-7. But that says more about the Eagles top-end talent at that dimension than it does Cole’s play. Trent Cole just put up another monster season. He’s finally reached the big-3-0, but his production has stayed remarkably consistent over time in a way that hints at continued value into his mid-30’s barring injury.
85.) Clay Matthews (OLB - GB)
When you look at hurries, Matthews was still elite (27.5). When you look at sacks, it was disappointing (6). What is the real Clay Matthews? Who knows. Injuries reportedly slowed his quickness, which is a good reason why he seemed a step slow, and that one step turns potential sacks into hurries.
84.) Darren McFadden (RB - OAK)
He's still never played a full season, but when he's healthy, he might be a top-5 back in the game. Great in open space, McFadden put up his second season of 5+ ypc, and was good as a receiving threat like always. Again, injuries are the only thing holding him back, as he's still just 25 years old. The o-line is better. The passing game should be at its highest level of any point in his time in Oakland. The time for DMC truly is now.
83.) Derrick Johnson (ILB - KC)
Derrick Johnson is already 30, which is a fact that I was stunned to find out. Other than a handful of guys who should or definitely will end up in Canton (Urlacher, Ray Lewis), inside linebackers don’t usually age all that well. Either way, for at least the next couple of seasons, Derrick Johnson should continue to be extremely valuable, and if he approaches the 30 defeats he put up in 2011, one of the most valuable end-to-end linebackers in the NFL.
82.) Brian Orakpo (OLB - WAS)
Brain Orakpo was double-teamed even more as a third-year player, and his sack numbers did fall indicating that either this was effective or his play dropped, but behind the veil of conventional statistics lies the 16 holding penalties Orakpo has drawn over his first two seasons. Orakpo continues to be one of the best young OLBs in the NFL, and with Ryan Kerrigan possibly taking another step-up (or at least commanding more o-line attention) look fro Orakpo to once again wreak havoc on opposing QBs.
81.) Duane Brown (LT - HOU)
Duane Brown is the rare player who’s production did not immediately drop after a steroid-based suspension. Unlike Shawne Merriman or Brian Cushing, Brown returned from his 4-game hiatus and continued to excel at pass blocking. He successfully held down the fort at LT for three different QBs. With Winston and Brisel gone, the Texans will look to Brown to better his run-blocking, and given his improvements as a player since 2008, I can’t see him letting the Texans down.
80.) Osi Umenyiora (DE - NYG)
Osi Umenyiora playd in 9 regular season games and obviously four playoff games in 2011. In those 13 games, he had 14 sacks. That’s quite good. Limiting snaps and missing training camp did quite well for Strahan, and although Umenyiora, now with new contract, probably can’t avoid camp, he can still emulate late-career Michael Strahan once again in 2012. His pass rush skills are still among the best in the league, and since he doesn’t need to be utilized as much in run-downs, his weaknesses aren’t as impactful. Overall, he’s worth the money, because there are still few pure-pass-rushers with Osi’s track-record and continuing success.
79.) Lardarius Webb (CB - BAL)
Lardarius Webb’s charting numbers in FO are not great, but that belies the fact that his ball skills that are among the best in the NFL (22 passes defended). He’s bettered his play in each of the last three seasons, and now is definitely the best corner the Ravens have had since Chris McAllister in his prime (2004-2008). Lardarius Webb can get better in run support, but with his great man coverage abilities can finally make Ed Reed harder to gameplan out of games.
78.) Dashon Goldson (SS - SF)
I find it odd that the 49ers are not signing Goldson to a long-term deal. He was excellent in 2011, and is still relatively young at a position that ages quite well (FS). His coverage was great in 2011, seen mostly by doing great work against both the Giants and Saints in the playoffs. Goldson is a pure FS in that he doesn’t play the run all that well (not that the stacked 49ers defense needs him to), but just for his coverage skills alone he merits a high spot on the list.
77.) Jay Cutler (QB - CHI)
Other than the QB that ranks two positional spots ahead of him, there was no bigger injury in the NFL than Cutler breaking his thumb last December. The Bears were 8-3 with Cutler last season, including three straight comfortable wins over the Eagles, Lions and Chargers. His ram numbers are never going to be incredible in that Martz offense that let an already bad line get no help, but Cutler did end his season phenomenally. To me, the switch from Martz to Tice can do wonders for Cutler who just needs some better protection. Getting Brandon Marshall is also huge, as those two had obvious chemistry in their Broncos days.
76.) Joe Staley (LT - SF)
Joe Staley was finally healthy, and what do you know? He was great. Staley had a grand total of zero holding penalties, and by Football Outsiders, had the fifth-fewest sacks allowed of any LT that played in all 16 games. His run blocking can improve, but the most important job for a LT is to protect the blind-side and Staley was incredible at doing that in 2011. Like so many players, the key for Staley is just staying healthy, as he can be a future star at the position if he does.
75.) Brian Urlacher (MLB - CHI)
The last time Urlacher finished a season with injury problems was after his broken wrist in 2009, to which he came back with an excellent 2010. Now he’s recovering from a PCL and MCL, and while he is almost certainly going to be out there come Week 1, this injury definitely brings with it more question marks than a sprained wrist. At the end of the day, it is hard to envision Urlacher being anything other than an excellent Tamp-2 MLB in pass coverage (#8 success rate against the pass in 2011) and a solid one against the run, and leading another good Bears defense.
74.) Cam Newton (QB - CAR)
My God. That was easily the most impressive rookie season by a QB ever. Yes, he got lucky that he came in a year where offensive numbers exploded in a way that would make the steroid era look small, but for a guy to put up 4,000 yards and complete 60.0% of his passes on a team with one true receiver is just amazing. His running was also just as effective as Michael Vick in his prime, but Cam’s a more physical runner, which in theory should allow him to hold up better. All in all, I don’t think too many QBs have had seasons like that and not gone on to be truly special.
73.) Dwight Freeney (DE - IND)
The good news is that he was held and double-teamed as much as ever, and faced fewer pure rushing opportunities than ever, and Freeney still put up 8.5 sacks and 18 hurries. It will be very interesting to see how Freeney plays in a 3-4, as he’s not a true fit for a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 OLB. He’s the perfect 4-3 DE, so Freeney could be a very interesting trade chip midseason for a 4-3 team looking for another rusher off the end. Of course, that precludes the league actually warming up to in-season trades for once.
72.) Jason Babin (DE - PHI)
Many thought 12.5 sacks for Tennessee in 2010 was a fluke, an outcome of being the featured rusher in a Jeff Fisher DE-friendly system. 18 sacks is no fluke, though. He’s still mainly a one-trick pony, but what few runs he did face he did adequately against (2.6 yards allowed on average). If there is one worry is that for a guy with so many sacks, he had relatively few hurries (just 20), so if he gets a little bit slower, expect those sack numbers to possibly lessen a lot.
71.) Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)
Well, that was certainly an interesting season. For half the year, it looked like he wouldn't get to CJ1K, but he finally responded late with some great games at the end of the season. Somehow, he finished the season with a ypc of 4.0, and another season of around 50 catches. He's still as fast as any RB in the NFL, but with the regression of the o-line in front of him, the amount of times he gets to use that incredible speed continues to lessen. To me, the real Chris Johnson is still the one that was up to his old tricks late in 2011 rather than the Shuan Alexander v.2007 impression from Weeks 1-10.
70.) Julius Peppers (DE - CHI)
A 90% stop rate. 31 hurries. 11 sacks. Top 10 in fewest yards given pup per play. Great against the run. Julius Peppers had another great season in Chicago (actually an improvement over an already good 2010) and at 32 shows no signs of slowing down. Now, if the rest of the Bears pass rush could just get on his level, they could be really scary.
69.) Roddy White (WR - ATL)
Roddy White was targeted 165 times in 2009, which was 2nd to Andre Johnson. How did he follow that up? Being targeted 180 times in 2010 and 2011. That is a ridiculous number, but Matt Ryan really does rely on White that much because he is mostly dependable. Roddy White continues to be the Rafael Palmeiro without the steroids of the NFL, a true stat-compiler. That all said, he does provide immense value as a durable receiver who hasn't missed a game since 2007. Matt Ryan turns to him because he knows he can. Peyton Manning used to do the same with Marvin until Reggie Wayne came along. Julio Jones could be that type of player that allows more space for Roddy White to not just became exhaustive but efficient.
68.) Lance Briggs (OLB - CHI)
With less injury questions, slightly less age questions (he is two years younger, but the chances of him having Urlacher’s odd longevity is not high) and basically the same effective, constant production, Briggs beats out his linebacking companion. Briggs’ numbers against the run were phenomenal for a 4-3 WLB, and his pass coverage improved in 2011 to the best level it has been since his 2005-06 heyday. The Bears are relying on a lot of top-end talent on defense from 30+ year olds, but Briggs has definitely delivered.
67.) Chris Long (DE - STL)
Chris Long was once thought off as an overdrafed energy pass rusher out of college. Four years later, he’s now become one of the best pass rushers in the “just entering his prime” age bracket. With 13 sacks and 33 hurries in fewer snaps than most good pass rushers given the Rams futility on offense, Long had his best season yet in 2011. The development of Robert Quinn should help him see less double-teams as the years go on. Just know this, here is the man almost solely responsible for the biggest upset of the 2011 season (2-14 St. Louis beating 13-3 New Orleans legitimately).
66.) Cortland Finnegan (CB - STL)
Jeff Fisher is banking that Cortland Finnegan is the version from 2011 & 2008 and not the guy in 2009 that was merely above average and 2010 who was just plain average. Cortland Finnegan was among the best corners in the NFL in 2011 by the FO Charting figures, placing #12 in success rate and #3 in ypa allowed despite facing a lot of balls thrown his way. In a division with Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice, and a schedule that features Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall, if the Rams hope to recapture their 2010 magic, they need Finnegan to be that player. And not the “Hyde” version from 2010.
65.) Matthew Stafford (QB - DET)
Matthew Stafford was finally healthy, and was about as good as the Lions could have ever hoped when they drafted him 1st overall. He became just the fourth QB to throw for 5,000 yards. Yes, it was in a year where two other guys did it as well, but those other two guys are both in the top-10 of this list. Matthew Stafford has everything a QB needs other than a solid running game, but with Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew in place seemingly for years, this could be the start of something special in Detroit.
64.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)
Until that late season hand injury Von Miller was putting up a Suh-esque rookie season. Now, having Elvis Dumervil, a more established player when 2011 started, across from him helped free up one-on-one blocks for Miller, but that still doesn’t even begin to explain how a 4-3 OLB can get 17.5 hurries and 11 sacks. John Fox is usually more conservative with his linebackers, but he quickly realized that he had a beast on his hands with Von Miller. The 2nd overall draft earned that lofty pre-draft reputation easily.
63.) NaVarro Bowman (ILB - SF)
If you could create the perfect complement to Patrick Willis as an ILB partner, NaVarro Bowman would be it. Willis’s strength is pass coverage. Bowman’s strength is run stopping. They are both good at rushing the passer, and with Willis is a surer tackler, Bowman is more rangy. Honestly, the 49ers have just unearthed the best combination 3-4 ILB’s since Ray Lewis and Bart Scott’s primes (or even Ray Lewis and Jamie Sharper’s primes).
62.) Matt Schaub (QB - HOU)
And now we get to the man that was the source of the biggest injury in the NFL in 2011. When Schaub got hurt, the Texans were 7-3 with 6 winnable games left. They were so good that even after two Leinart/Yates games, the Texans ranked #1 in DVOA. They were most likely the best non-Green Bay team in the NFL last season. Schaub was a major reason why, with a career high in Y/A and a career low in interception rate. And he did all of this without Andre Johnson for much of his time in the lineup. If he and AJ stay healthy, expect the Texans to challenge for the title of “league’s most complete team” once again.
61.) Ndamukong Suh (DT - DET)
Well, his 2nd year on the surface was a step down (and even beyond the surface was), but that is easy to do when the rookie season signals a bust in Canton. Suh still had 24 hurries and was excellent against the run, ranking in the top-20 I stop rate and average yards allowed. He has to curb his aggression to limit flags and suspensions, but I feel like those displays of emotion will subside. His displays of dominance: those should increase.
60.) Jonathan Joseph (CB - HOU)
Jonathan Joseph’s effect was felt far more than his individual good but not great numbers. He came into by-far the worst secondary in the NFL and stabilized it, playing well on his half, making the Texans secondary a unit that opponents had to gameplan for. Sure, that great pass rush in front of him helped, but if Joseph just continues to do what he did, the Texans defense should continue to approve in its secondary.
59.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)
One. That's the amount of players to have more sacks as a rookie than Aldon Smith's 14 last season. That man was a freak: Jevon Kearse. If Aldon Smith has that career, it might even be disappointing. Now, the 49ers had a bevy of other awesome defenders for opposing teams to account for, but in limited pass-rush specialist duty, Aldon Smith was incredible, racking up 31 hurries to go along with those sacks. As he gets older, he'll probably develop against the run. Just the thought of a more complete Aldon Smith along-side NaVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis is downright terrifying.
58.) Ryan Kalil (C - CAR)
Another fine year for Ryan Kalil, who is suddenly being regarded as the 2nd best o-lineman named Kalil in the NFL with brother Matt being the #4 pick for the Vikings. Matt will have to be quite good to match Ryan though, one of the league’s most consistent centers over the past five years. Kalil is one of the best pass-blocking centers in the NFL, and he and Jordan Gross have provided stability to a line that has undergone a lot of change since its heyday in 2008-09.
57.) Greg Jennings (WR - GB)
Greg Jennings reminds me a lot of early Reggie Wayne. Incredible route running, good hands, good enough speed, and couple that with great chemistry with an awesome QB, and you get a WR who will put up 70-80 for 1000-1300 and 7-12 TDs. Jennings would've fell in that range had he not missed three games (which is something that hasn't been an issue for him before that). It is easy to forget that Greg Jennings played at this level with Brett Favre too. In fact, he's really the last link to the Favre era on offense now that Scott Wells and Chad Clifton are gone.
56.) Mario Williams (DE - BUF)
It is odd Mario Williams never gets questioned the way Julius Peppers used to, as his production has never truly reached his #1 overall draft status (thankfully, he was in a weak class for top-picks so he still comes out better than Reggie Bush or Vince Young by about a factor of 10). Mario Williams should get a chance to shine in Buffalo, but his linemates in Houston were pretty good too. Finally healthy, it will be interesting to see if Mario can come back strong after his first real injury.
55.) Logan Mankins (LG - NE)
After being the perfect example of correlation not causation in 2010, with his return to the lineup coinciding with the Patriots 8 game win streak where they topped 30 points in each game, Mankins had a more normal 2011. His play actually dipped more than it has in years, but a lot of that might be the effects of an ACL injury that was unknown through the end of the season. All reports are that Mankins will be healthy and ready come Week 1, and without Matt Light next to him, Mankins needs to step up if overrated sophomore Nate Solder struggles.
54.) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)
Well, that season is never happening again. The people who have put up back-to-back 1,500 yard seasons is a list two names long: Isaac Bruce and Andre Johnson. I would bet anything Cruz isn't joining that list, mainly because he accrued a ton of yards with high-YAC plays which are really volatile year-to-year. That said, he was no one-hit wonder either. I can easily see Cruz being among the league's best #2 receivers, and break off a couple long plays. His incredible body-control in space rivals Wes Welker.
53.) Nnamdi Asomugha (CB - PHI)
It is useless to talk about his charting numbers since he was totally misused most of the season. With the Eagles switching to man defense, we will see if 2011 was a fluke or a sign that Asomugha’s has reached his decline phase. Personally, I still want the former Raider to do well, to end up in Canton along with the other great Raider corners. With correct utilization, that can become more of a reality.
52.) Richard Seymour (DT - OAK)
The Giants ran for 118 yards in Super Bowl XLVI. You think if it was Richard Seymour instead of Kyle Love that Kevin Boothe was attempting to block they would have still rushed for 118 yards? Richard Seymour (and Asante Samuel) is living proof that Belichick does sometime get rid of guys one (or two-three-four-five-???) years too soon. He’s continued to be a massively disruptive force in Oakland, being the leader of an at-times dominant d-line. When he goes to Canton, it will be partly because of what he accomplished in Oakland.
51.) Jordy Nelson (WR - GB)
Jordy Nelson, by DVOA, had one of the greatest seasons a WR has ever had. Now, that probably won't happen again, but what will is that he will continue to surprise defenses with his speed. Forget the fact that he is white, so he was originally typcast into the "slot" receiver, Jordy Nelson was truly historically efficient working almost exclusively outside in 2011. He and Rodgers have great chemistry. Seeing those two combine for a back-shoulder throw is one of the most awesome sights in passing football right now. Nelson will probably not be historically good, but will probably continue to be criminally underrated.
